Trade: Who’s Your Haddy? | Trumpa Loompas

WYH sends: LF/RF David Dahl ($3; cost controlled), LF Christin Stewart (minors), CF Estevan Florial (minors), 2019 2nd Round Pick, 2020 1st Round Pick
TL sends: LF/CF/RF Adam Eaton ($26), two 2019 3rd Round Picks, 2020 2nd Round Pick

Andrew’s thoughts: I think at first glance this might look like a big overpay for Haddy, just because prospect value seems to have skyrocketed so much here. But upon closer inspection, I don’t think it is.

First of all, Haddy easily gets the best player in this deal, though he comes with a lot of risk. Adam Eaton has only logged 178 plate appearances since coming to DC via Chicago before the 2017 season, seemingly suffering one injury after another. They’ve been fairly serious injuries too, not just bumps and bruises. But in the three seasons from 2014-16, he was sturdy and steady, posting wOBAs over .340 each year. In his limited action in DC, he’s running a .374 wOBA and 134 WRC+. That is very, very good. He’s also only 29-years-old, can play all three outfield spots, and will start at $28 to keep, which for his production is more than reasonable. Sure, he’s risky. But he’s a proven producer and even with the injuries, I’m not convinced he’s more risky than the meh prospects Haddy got rid of here.

Of the guys going back to Trumpa Loompas, I actually think I like Christin Stewart the best. He’s murdering minor league pitching this year and I’ve read some Khris Davis comps on him. He walks a bunch, has crazy power, and this year has cut back considerably on his strikeouts. I’m not sure he should be the best guy you get for a player of Eaton’s caliber, but I like him.

The other two players are a mixed bag. David Dahl is way more injury prone than Eaton and despite a .367 wOBA over 237 plate appearances in 2016, he hasn’t really done anything at the major league level in more than a season. He doesn’t walk, strikes out a bunch, and the Rockies seem really bad at integrating prospects into their team. I get that any halfway decent hitter at Coors is enticing, but I’m just not a big Dahl fan. Wasn’t he at one point part of Haddy’s return for Mookie Betts though? His star has really faded.

I guess Esteval Florial is the biggest name prospect, and the guy who appears highest on lists, but I’m not that into him either. I guess FanGraphs did slap a 60 on his raw power, but he’s hurt now and has yet to play past A+, so he’s a ways off from contributing, and I don’t recall reading any gushing reports about him. For sure, his minor league numbers are good. I don’t know. I won’t pretend to know a ton about him. Suffice to say, I’m not drooling over this guy as a fantasy prospect right now.

Maybe I’m just blinded by my overall love of Adam Eaton here, but I like this for Haddy overall. He absolutely had to improve his offense and did it for wildcards. Yes, the guy he got back is risky, but his age, salary, and eligibility make it feel worth it. The only real problem I see is that he sort of fired all his bullets in this one deal, unless he wants to flip Austin Riley. I don’t know what he’d fetch. Probably a good piece in this league, actually. I guess we’ll see. For now, given where Haddy’s team is in the standings, I’d be pretty happy getting Eaton, and then just hold my breath that he doesn’t break again.

Hustle’s toxic $0.02:  

Bailey wrote a lot of words, I’ll write a lot less. I agree with most of his point.

I like this trade for both teams. T.L. got some intriguing prospects with upside who have a chance to become regulars for him at a low cost while upgrading a few draft picks. On the flip side, he has a lot of salary to work with next year, so a healthy Adam Eaton wasn’t likely burning a hole in his pocket.

This trade simply comes down to whether Eaton  can stay healthy and perform like a healthy Eaton has performed.  If Eaton can be that guy, Haddy’s team add a very solid offensive bat and one that is keepable for a few years.  If he can’t stay healthy, Haddy lost some wildcard prospects. If one of the three work out as being a good contributor for multiple years, then T.L. probably makes out great, because even if Eaton is a monster R.O.S., T.L. is out of the playoff hunt most likely anyway. That’s really the scenario they are both betting on.  If T.L. somehow manages 2 long term assets here, well then, that could make the Trumpa Loomps great again….finally.

I also agree with Bailey’s assessment on the spects. I like Stewart the most, and he’s potentially a guy much better suited for our point scoring than a 5×5 league, so perhaps he’s been underrated on some fantasy lists and his lack of defensive prowess probably made him underrated on other prospect lists.  Florial is injured right now and struggled a bit this year, but is only 20 and seems like he’s due to pick up value at some point. Dahl hasn’t been good since 2016, but an every day regular in Coors is always intriguing.

Bottom line, this is a good gamble for both sides.

Trade: Senior Squids | Long Ball to LF

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Musgrove, Joe
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids)
Wright, Kyle
O’Neill, Tyler

Senior Squids trades away
Paxton, James

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

The nice thing I’ll say about this trade is that I do like it more than the last one.  Paxton is a more volatile asset than Gary Sanchez is, thus I think it’s a better piece to trade if you’re rebuilding/tanking.  Elton took my advice from the last review in trading Paxton. I still think it would be preferable to have made this trade rather than and instead of the last one.

That being said, I still think this isn’t a great trade, but it’s not awful.  It’s basically a downgrade from a near ace level pitcher in Paxton to whatever Musgrove is with a wild card shot on Wright or Oneil being something. If Oneill becomes a middle of the order bopper year in and year out and Musgrove is a top 30ish pitcher, then it probably works out ok for him. That still seems like a lot of risk of both those things happening rather than Paxton just staying good. Paxton could get hurt, but Musgrove is no stranger to injuries either.  Seems risky with not a ton of upside unless you think Paxton isn’t built to hold up for a few years or that Musgrove will become close to his tier of a player. Which I suppose is possible!

I still have trouble seeing how this puts Elton in a better position to beat the teams he made stronger in 2019 and beyond. Senior Squids finally has a top 10 farm, and their best course now is to let his prospects marinate and hopefully next year flip them for an elite asset like Gary Sanchez or James Paxton. This trade reminds me a lot of the Pirates trading Gerit Cole, when they sought elite future assets and ended up with… Joe Musgrove.

For Long Ball, this seems like a no brainer move. Sure Paxton has injury risk, but so does Musgrove. Every trade has inherent risks, but this seems like a pretty safe bet. With a rotation of Nola, Paxton, and Greinke, the Long Balls look to be serious contenders now and in the future.

Andrew’s thoughts: 

James Paxton is a weird guy to value. He’s obviously very, very good, but he’s also constantly hurt. He’s never thrown more than 136 innings and I feel like if you’re buying him, you’re probably worried he won’t be available when it matters most (H2H playoff time). At the same time… he costs only $10, $12 minimum to keep, and that is effectively nothing. Even if he gets greeded up to $20, that’s peanuts for a player of his caliber. He could miss all of 2019 for whatever reason and still be cheap enough to keep into 2020. I guess what I’m saying is, he’s riskier than your average pitcher, but his price and ability outweigh a good majority of that risk. I agree with Hustle’s general sentiment that, for a rebuilding team, Paxton is the most obvious chip to move (and that he should’ve been traded first and instead of franchise piece Gary Sanchez).

On the other side, Joe Musgrove also appears to be an injury risk. He’s only pitched in four MLB games this year after battling injuries all winter and spring. I like Musgrove, but I’m a little shocked he’s the main piece in a deal for a Paxton-like stud. I’m having flashbacks to Lewis Brinson — in other words, a guy who pops up on the trade block sporadically for months, then is suddenly headlining a deal for a star. In this case, three of Musgrove’s four starts have been good, so I guess that’s enough to make him valuable.

In essence, Long Ball paid three prospects — O’Neill, Wright, and a pick — to upgrade Musgrove to Paxton. And I love it. He had to do it. He didn’t, in my opinion, touch any of his premium prospects to get this deal done (if I’m Squids and trading Paxton to Long Ball, I’m getting Juan Soto or Bo Bichette back or I’m shopping really hard elsewhere). Musgrove seems good, but Paxton is elite. To me, Tyler O’Neill is a depth piece in our league. The power will play, but his cost control clock has already started ticking and he’s on a team that doesn’t have room for him. Is he just a fourth outfielder? Kyle Wright ranked 24th on FanGraphs’ new prospect list, but I don’t know much about him. He’s a pitcher, and if I’m tanking this year and probably next as Squids appears to be doing, I’m just not pumped to do it all around pitchers.

Ultimately I can’t escape the feeling here that Squids decided Paxton had to go ASAP and just took whatever offer looked best. Yeah, Paxton’s risky, but given his performance and cost, literally every team should have shown interest. Paxton is more valuable to even a rebuilding team than almost any prospect or combo of 2-3 prospects. I’d love to know if any “rebuilding” teams inquired. I know Squids has taken some pleasure in trying to play the “top teams” against each other as he tears down, but the market for Paxton should’ve been vast and the return just seems underwhelming. Oh well. Paxton’s arm could melt off at any moment (he had forearm cramping during his last start!) and this deal could then look fantastic simply by virtue of getting something. There aren’t a lot of studs in the league for under $20, but Paxton’s one of them and injury history be damned, I feel like he should’ve fetched a Bichette, Soto, or some prospect of that ilk a tier or two below the Vlads and Acunas of the world. Kyle Wright feels very blah to me. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out and if injuries play a role in the narrative.

 

 

TRADE: Capital Citcy Income/ Team Hydra

Team Hydra trades away
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Team Hydra)
Lester, Jon $63

Capital City Income trades away
Godley, Zack $8
Gattis, Evan $11

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

I like this trade for both teams. The auction proved once again that most of the assets are overpriced and not that good, otherwise the players would have been kept.  $63 Jon Lester has proven to be one of the better auction purchased, which says a lot about a lot.  He’s a top 30ish pitcher pitching even better lately. He was keepable for close to that price, but Jordan decided to cut him.

At 3-7, Hydra has clearly thrown in the towel, not even Freddie Freeman is eligible for their lineup every day. Getting two keepable assets and betting against Lester being a keeper at that price seems reasonable. Hydra has no real catcher, and with Gattis turning the corner he’s a justifiable keep if he’s playing most days.  They will have the rest of the year to decide whether or not to keep Godley, but in all honesty, $10 on even an average pitcher isn’t awful. It’s clear Bailey had become increasingly frustrated with Godley’s consistency, and perhaps used his last start as a sell high of sorts. The short lived Godley Income era is now over.

Getting two major league assets for a guy you weren’t going to keep seems fine. If anything, Hydra has proven to be able to spend big chunks of money on players in auction and be successful about it, so maybe they find next year’s Lester who helps them place/win  or sell him off again. Lester was probably a better purchase than anyone I got in auction for instance.

I don’t love that they threw in a 2nd rounder, but relievers will be available later in the draft too.

 

 

Trade: Senior Squids | TBD

SS sends: C Gary Sanchez ($27), $10 Auction Budget
TBD sends: SP Michel Baez (minors), 2B/CF Jahmai Jones (minors), RF Alex Kirilloff (minors), SP Franklin Perez (minors)

Hustle’s toxic $0.02: When the centerpiece of your sell off return is a pitcher in A-ball, you’ve done something wrong. Maybe if you weren’t selling off a big piece, sure. That being said, Gary Sanchez is 25 at the top of an elite position and comfortable priced under 30 bucks. I like Michel Baez, I’ve offered trades for him… but I’ve offered other prospects. Baez is also currently sporting a 4.71 xFIP as well as a 4.7 BB/9. The odds of Baez being an Ace in the majors is real, but slim. Franklin Perez is injured at the moment, he projects to be a decent MLB starter, but also might not be. Kirilloff is certainly a nice A-ball bat, but it’s also at outfield where it’s not particularly hard to find productivity. Jahmi Jones is just a guy. Maybe he’s the good version of Brad Miller/Brandon Phillips at 2B, a very decent depth piece to have if he hits. The chances of one of these players being a superstar like Sanchez is probably under 50%, it’s probably under 25%. You already have a young Sanchez, so trading him for risk seems like a pretty big mistake. If Gary Sanchez suffers a career threatening injury, I like this trade for Squids.

I think if you’re Squids and giving up on 2018 for some reason, it would have made more sense to try and get something out of Paxton instead of Sanchez. Paxton is 29 and has a lengthy injury history. Someone surely would have given him a few decent prospects for him too (still can!). But I think Squid’s goal of assembling the real life Mariners in a 16 team league is real and won’t be stopped.

TBD already has the best team on paper prior to this trade as well as the most points, so this only makes that stronger. In the end, things will come down to a one week playoff and certainly anything is possible. TBD has done tremendously trading non elite prospects for top tier talent. I think Squids panicked a little early in the season and once his mind was made up he was out of it he decided to play kingmaker but instead has made his team a pawn for years to come.

The $10 isn’t a big deal in terms of budget, it’s just a reminder of how cruel humanity can be.

Andrew’s thoughts: When Squids first traded for Gary Sanchez, I got my assessment wrong. That deal was for Corey Kluber, and in retrospect, it’s been alright. Sanchez has done far more than I thought he would and, surprise, surprise, the cost control aspect of these players that I harped on in that review isn’t that big a deal.

Anyway, here we are again, another chance to review a Sanchez trade. And this one strikes me as… worse.

I just don’t understand trading a young, affordable, elite hitter at the top of a thin position for a handful of non-elite prospects. I can’t even decipher who the best prospect here is. I guess it’s Franklin Perez, since he’s seemingly the closest to the majors. If I’m going to trade Sanchez to TBD and I insist on doing it for prospects, then Eloy Jimenez is involved or there’s no deal to be made. Period. I was amazed that JD Martinez and a full loan was handed over to TBD without Eloy and I’m amazed that now Sanchez has been too. If TBD says Eloy’s untouchable, then alright, move along. Whatever. There’s no clear reason that Sanchez had to go anywhere, so just keep him. He’s better than Eloy anyway. But at least in Eloy you’re getting a legitimate, consensus top flight prospect. You do him, Baez, and Jones or whatever and this seems at least explainable.

I just don’t really get the rush to punt on Sanchez. At worst, he’s $44 next year — and that’s with greed, which now will be spread out across other guys instead. Whatever salary is ultimately freed up here seems like it has very little, if any, practical value, especially since $10 also inexplicably got dumped into TBD’s pocket (kudos to Joe and/or Josh for having the balls to say, “we realize we’re getting the best catcher in the game here and he’s on a nice salary, but can we also get $10 to cover when teams greed him up?”), eating into whatever savings. And Squids spent $51 at auction this year on relievers and a broken Carlos Rodon. So like, just don’t do that next year and you can safely keep elite Sanchez. You’re way, way, way better off going into auction with a proven points-scorer like Sanchez locked in than with a bunch of money to flush on risky players.

I mean… our trade block is public, and in it, Squids insisted on “top grade” prospects and cited “major league ready” as a bonus. This batch of prospects are not “top grade.” Per FanGraphs most recent grades, Baez is a 55 FV, the other three guys are 50. That is indisputably not “top grade.” And of them, only Perez is all that close to the majors. Jones is in A+ and converting from CF to 2B, so his development may lag a little. Baez isn’t faring all that well in A+. Kirilloff is coming off surgery in A-ball. These guys won’t help this year or next, most likely, and may not be fantasy relevant until 2020.

So yeah, I just love this deal for TBD. They’ll pick up a few prospects from their watch list for $0 FAAB bids this morning and let them marinate in their minors a while until eventually they’re on a top-100 list, because on a long enough timeline that’s just sort of what happens with halfway decent prospects. And in the meantime, they’ll bank a bunch of Sanchez homer points en route to a potential points championship. Good work, fellas.

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | Hustle Loyalty Respect

CAP sends: 1B Yordan Alvarez (minors), SP Nate Pearson (minors), SS Freddy Galvis ($5)
HLR sends: 3B/RF Nicholas Castellanos ($20), CF Blake Rutherford (minors), SS Addison Russell ($44), $9 2018 Auction Budget

Jordan’s thoughts: I am inclined to trust these two teams know what they’re doing given that they appeared in last year’s championship. But who knows? I am Jordan and I sure as hell do not know.

In this deal, HLR seems to just be adding prospects in order to flip them after the season starts to one of the tanking teams. Yordan Alvarez could be awesome, or he could be AJ Reed in left field. Nate Pearson could be Noah Syndergaard, or he could blow his arm out. More likely, he shoots up prospect lists in 2018 and HLR trades him for profit. Or the Blue Jays announce that Pearson is being converted to a relief pitcher and HLR trades him to Hydra for all their good players. I’ve got to be perfectly honest. I am Jordan and since these players are prospects, I have never heard of them.

The best piece going to HLR in this deal might just be Freddy Galvis, who is not particularly good but shows up every day. These same things were once said about Andrelton Simmons and he is now a valuable fantasy commodity. As a True Grinder™, Galvis embodies what HLR is all about, minus the penchant for trolling. Maybe HLR will flip Freddy to one of the teams that don’t have an obvious resolution at SS going into the season, who could use the cheap, at-least-he-plays-every-day depth.

Also, why did HLR include the $9? Does he just hate Shohei Ohtani? It seems like that money would’ve been better served adding one of the many awesome available players at auction, like James Shields or Mitch Moreland.

For the defending points and league champion, well, what was the point of this? Castellanos is, like, the third best 3B on this roster? Maybe second best, since the new humidor in Arizona is guaranteed to turn Rake Lamb back into plain old Jake Lamb. At any rate, CAP has no real need for Castellanos and should’ve just saved the prospects for in-season, at which point they could be flipped to a tanker for an obvious need. Now that the payout structure has been changed unilaterally to reward the teams with the best farm systems (forgot to tell you guys this, sorry, telling you here and now, thanks!), trading off prospects seems especially odd.

Blake Rutherford is just whatever. He could be awesome (yay!), could be the next AJ Reed (sad!), or could just be the same guy as Yordan Alvarez (yawn!). He’s on some lists. He’s not on other lists. Lists are important and I am sure that CAP hopes one day, Rutherford is on them all. Again, this guy is a prospect, so I, Jordan, have never heard of him.

The strange part of this trade is the inclusion of $44 Addison Russell. He’s basically the same guy as Galvis — not super efficient but plays every day; reliable; boring — but costs $39 more. Why not just keep Galvis, CAP? Even with the $9, Russell is too expensive. Sure, Russell has some upside, but he’s just such a risky guy to go out and acquire and then keep. So weird.

Final thought: HLR is getting the most cost controlled players, therefore HLR wins the trade. Freddy Galvis is interesting. Addison Russell is expensive. Castellanos has a funny name. I am Jordan and I approve this trade review.

We Talk Fantasy Sports’ thoughts: Here is how this trade would look if it were a graph:

Squids has himself a day

 

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Gordon, Dee

Senior Squids trades away
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids)

Bailey’s Take

This was a trade Squids just had to make. I really wouldn’t feel good about contending with Joe Panik as my only 2B. Dee Gordon is a little sketchy in our format because he offers no power, but neither does Panik. At least Dee gets on base pretty good and racks up steals, which aren’t really valuable but are better than nothing. Gordon always finishes among the top 2B scorers even if it isn’t always in game changing fashion. I wouldn’t be surprised if Panik gets dumped back to auction now.
Speaking of auction. Is Adam Jones kept at $39? I’m not sure. Gordon will be able to play CF too and while he won’t hit the homers Jones will, they’re roughly the same guy in our scoring when all is said and done.
Either way, this helps Squids at minimal cost. It gives him a relatively inexpensive, useful player that offers some options and flexibility. For LB, I assume this was a salary dump. So good for him too for turning a presumed cut into some future value. Maybe next year he can join the dark side and sell the pick for auction budget.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
Overall this trade was pretty fine for both teams. I like it slightly more for Long Ball here. Gordon, like Brinson, has to be one of the most traded players in Dynasty Grinders history ( Jesus Sucre and Brian Shaw not counted). I think Gordon was likely headed back to the auction, so getting a 2nd round pick is a good haul for a cut. For Squids, supplanting Paniks production seems like a good idea at this point, and Gordon is a decent option.  I think if he would have held out until auction he could have got comparable production at 2b, but maybe not.  It’s hard to fault him for wanting to be prepared at each position before the auction.
Night King’s Undead Army to Senior Squids
($8) Gregorius , Didi for  $15

Bailey’s Take

Dansby Swanson has been a pretty big disappointment. Didi seems like a good upgrade over him. For basically $15 and a pick, Squids has pretty nicely upgraded his middle infield today.
For Jordan, eh, I don’t know. Getting Corey Seager maybe have rendered Didi useless, but I would’ve wanted actual talent back. Prospects, a cheap major leaguer, whatever.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
So after an offseason of quite, Squids picked up Dee and Did in one afternoon. That’s 3 Ds. D-Von, get tables.
Anyway I like this trade for Squids more than the first. This reminds me of the Ferns deal with Bailey earlier offseason where he bought Mannea for 20.  Buying an $8 Didi for $15 is basically like paying $23 at auction for Didi, which I don’t think would be crazy if you didn’t have a SS. The upside is that squids only has to pay $10 for him next year, especially with  greed sponge Gary Sanchez on his roster. I don’t hate the trade for Jordan, I think it was a natural consequence of the Corey Seager deal which I did not like for Jordan. In fact, if Dejong does what he did last year, there’s no way Jordan is going to miss Didi at all.  $15 buys you a better need at auction, so I get it.

Trade: Preseason Double Stuffs | Hustle Loyalty Respect

PRE sends: 2019 2nd Round Pick, $10 2018 Auction Budget
HLR sends: 1B Edwin Rios (minors), 2019 3rd Round Pick

Andrew’s thoughts: I like this move for HLR. He upgrades a future draft pick by an entire round, as both of these picks belong to the Evil Otters and were dealt away during the team’s previous owner’s war on draft picks. He also banks $10 for an interesting prospect that I think he’ll be able to adequately replace during the season via waivers.

Rios is fine. He’s been on some lists, including clocking in at No. 100 on FanGraphs’ November list based on our scoring. His scouting reports are pretty solid. His minor league numbers are sick. He can hit for sure. He’s also almost 24 and a Dodger, so he could debut at any time now… but is blocked and probably needs a trade. Fantrax lists him as a 1B, but he plays some 3B in the minors. He’s far more interesting at 3B than 1B. I like him as a flier to stash away in the minors.

I also continue to enjoy the Double Stuffs’ purge of every possible present day asset. They’re down to $390 in budget with around $150 in cuts still to come, if my guesses are accurate. Yikes. In general I feel like dumping $10 for any prospect that’s even a useful bench piece is fine, just because it’ll take a couple seasons to pay them that much in salary. I guess if you’re going to punt a year of cash, you may as well go all the way.

Trade: TBD | Off-season Double Stuffs

PRE sends: RF JD Martinez ($55), $55 Auction Budget
LB sends: RF Austin Hays ($5), LF/CF Lewis Brinson ($1; cost controlled), SP Brandon Woodruff ($1; cost controlled), SP Adrian Morejon (minors)

Andrew’s thoughts: When this trade first popped up I thought, “dear God, please tell me this is not the package Ferns is going to pay down JD’s entire salary for.” But guess what? It is!

I love, conceptually, a team in a punt year offering to cover a star player’s entire salary in a deal. I think its a creative way of extracting max value, and in this case, potential long-term value for a guy that, at least in 2018, doesn’t really matter if he’s there or not. And this is definitely one of those trades where, a year from now, everything I’m about to say could look very, very stupid. But… I don’t think these players are a compelling return at all for a free year of JD Martinez.

Martinez is pretty much a lock to be an elite hitter. He’s had some injury issues and maybe his skills won’t hold up as he slinks into his 30’s, but a single season of an elite player where someone else pays the salary is enormously valuable. Like, super super valuable. I believe he outproduced Paul Goldschmidt on a Pt/PA basis last year. So just imagine your team and your budget, but with Goldschmidt magically on it at zero penalty. I don’t think his free agency limbo matters, because his power translates to any park. I don’t worry as much about health or age, because the production is of zero question, and production is what matters.

I don’t think Lewis Brinson, who just got handed a full-time job but also a ballpark downgrade in Miami, is that interesting. Scouts like his power potential, but the balls are juiced. Everyone has the potential to hit homers. He’s got 60-grade speed, but SBs aren’t that valuable. I know he’s one of those toolsy, if-it-all-comes-together upside guys and he’s been ranked highly on all the lists, but I just can’t get overly excited about him. And how much of his list pedigree is defense-based? He’s got great defensive scouting grades. Again, he could blow up and I could look dumb. Of course, if he blows up in 2018, well, then his $1 season will have had very little impact for you because you’re punting and he’ll cost a few bucks more the following year (not enough for it to matter probably, but still). His projections currently peg him as a below average outfielder in 2018, which is fine, he’s a prospect, the projections rarely love them. He’s just not a prospect I’m crazy about. I also think, as many injury concerns as you may have about JD, Brinson’s got them too. At least JD can blame his on age.

Austin Hays is a guy I like, but he’s actually very similar to Brinson except he gets to hit in a friendly park. And he’s not cost controlled which, starting with a $5 salary, probably doesn’t matter much. Maybe he gets hit hard with greed next year. Who cares? I think I also may have talked myself into Hays because he’s an Oriole and I want to believe in the Orioles’ ability to occasionally develop a good prospect. I wonder if he’s going to get on base enough to provide a safe floor. He doesn’t walk at all, even in the minors, and seems like a guy that could strikeout a bunch. So really, the two cornerstone pieces of this deal — and I’d argue a team paying you to take JD for a year is maybe the most valuable singular asset ever traded — are very, very high risk. Like, all ceiling, no floor, and the ceiling is questionable in an offensive environment where both guys’ calling card tools are shared by anyone who can figure out launch angles.

The pitchers are, to me, meh. I’m a fan of Brandon Woodruff, picked him up in another league and felt like he had value, but he’s also a pitcher in Milwaukee. The home park could be an obstacle and frankly, I’m not even sure he’s got a rotation spot locked up. Roster Resource currently says he’s out. The Brewers are expected to add a pitcher. I mean… is Woodruff a swing man? Does he come out of the bullpen? I don’t know. Adrian Morejon, meanwhile, is a guy I know very little about. He’s on lists. He’s also not even 19-years-old yet and a pitcher. Dude doesn’t have 30 innings at A-level ball yet. I just don’t see it.

For an asset as valuable as $0 JD, I just don’t want every single asset coming my way to have this many question marks. I think if there’s no budget involved here, it looks a lot better, because it gives the Double Stuffs some options to add talent via auction or trade for an overpriced player before then and still gives them the lottery tickets.

Reading back over this, I feel bad for being so negative. I don’t think I really dislike the guys Ferns got back as much as it probably sounds. I kinda hope someone digs up this review in a year and we can all laugh at how stupid I was. I just don’t think this package is enough. If its me, Eloy Jimenez is in it as well, or no deal. I’m getting an unquestioned elite fantasy prospect back. I probably even want a little more still. I traded Aaron Judge (to be fair, I shopped him and no one wanted him!) for Matt Holliday last year. So eh, what the hell do I know?

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

I’d like to say I admire Ferns for being one of the most active members of the league over this awful time of year called “the offseason”. If you think I started this by saying something nice so I could I say I don’t like the trade for him, well yeah you’re right… but it’s also true. I always respect someone putting thought into their team and actively trying to make it better and it its better to have someone reject your trade offer 71 times and throw in some counters than just let it sit there.

The trade ironically  makes TBD the preseason favorite.  It’s a pretty no brainer to trade 4 prospects for a paid JD Martinez, especially when they didn’t have to include their best prospect, perhaps not even 2nd or 3rd depending on your taste. Ferns was in a hurry to make the deal, but I’m not sure why, especially with the season almost 2 months away. Surely if he signs with Boston/Arizona the price goes up, if he signs with the Giants, I can’t imagine this offer not still being on the table.  Paying for the contract in full, the trade doesn’t even have to be made before the Auction, you’re out the $55 either way. If Ferns knows something about JD’s health that we all don’t, kudos to him on the ultimate hustle.

As for the return?  Brinson is the most attractive piece. He’s been traded 3 or 4 times in this league, 2 times in real life, and in the least attractive ballpark  now. If he breaks out this year, which is possible, he’s in his 3rd mlb year next year already. The best part of having a good prospect is the upside of getting 2 amazing years for basically $1 like we will most likely see Bailey get with Bellinger. That’s not to say he wont have a lot of value if he’s good, but a chunk of it is certainly gone.  Looking at Ferns roster, I think he can objectively say it might be a struggle to compete in 2019, if thats the case, that’s even more value out of Brinson (we’re also still just assuming Brinson is good and stays healthy which is no given for either).  Hays being immune to walks curbs his upside, but if he hits well enough he’s a useful piece.  I actually do like Woodruff a little bit, and the fact that he might not get many starts on a crowded Miluwakee team in 2018 doesn’t really hurt Ferns at all unless that happens in 2019 too.  That being said, same issue with Brinson in terms of losing potentially the most profitable year or two because your team isn’t competing those years. Adrian Morejon is  a guy I think may be overvalued. He will be a starter down the line (unlike all the relievers Hydra seems to be drafting), but he’s also a guy who’s upside may not worth waiting on for that long.

These are prospects and I am not a scout. The scouts get them wrong all the time and I’m willing to admit I know far less than them. I agree with Bailey saying this will be an interesting trade to look back on. They are all interesting guys and could hit.

Ultimately I do think this trade comes down to patience. Ferns wanted to get a trade JD Martinez for prospects ASAP. Meanwhile TBD put Hays/Brinson on the block all offseason long, patiently waiting until someone bite on prospects that have value, but they clearly soured on.

God Speed

 

Trade: Long Ball to LF | Preseason Double Stuffs

PRE sends: 2018 3rd Round Pick, $15 Auction Budget
LB sends: 2018 1st Round Pick (2B Keston Hiura)

Andrew’s thoughts: I would have taken Keston Hiura first overall. I think PRE trading up to get him for $15 in a year where they have a ton of cash to blow is smart. What are they going to buy at auction for $15 that’s going to matter anyway? The way cost control works, they might get three seasons of usefulness from Hiura before paying him $15 total. So this is a pretty easy investment to make. Love it for the Double Stuffs.

As for Long Ball, well, this is what their team name always reminds me of.

Hustle’s toxic $0.02: $15 doesn’t buy you much in auction. I’d rather have a cost controlled Huira. The third round pick is better than a faab pickup in a month or so, but not by too much. I think normally this isn’t too bad for a mid first rounder , but with Huira still available I like it a lot more for Ferns. Huira was easily top 3 on my board, and by top 3 I don’t mean 3… I mean I might have had him 1 if I wanted to spend time thinking about it, but since I didn’t have a pick somewhere in top 3 at the latest, works for me. If this was the original auction I’d feel a lot different, 15 is like half the price for a decent SP gamble, and still very much a gamble. I guess if this is just building money to buy Ohtani, I can see the validity.

Trade: In Line 4 the Win | TBD

In Line 4 the Win sends: C/1B Alex Avila ($5)
TBD sends: CF Denard Span ($8)

Andrew’s thoughts: Oh man, am I pumped to see a Denard Span trade!

I like this small deal for both teams. Good job, fellas.

In two days, TBD has cheaply solved their catcher position for 2018 by adding Robinson Chirinos and brand new Arizona Diamondback Alex Avila. I highly doubt TBD was keeping Span for $8 just given their roster construct and cap situation, so in some ways this is a free #2 catcher for them. They’ve got what should be a sufficient platoon behind the plate now.

Meanwhile, In Line 4 the Win obtains former Ironmen legend Denard Span, who is basically generic Adam Jones but much cheaper. No, seriously, look. They aren’t all that different. I mean, as always with this metric, obviously Jones is  better because he scores more points in total, plays more often, has more pop, better home park, etc. You can set him and forget him in your lineup. But if you can pay Span $30 less than Jones, you can probably chip another $10 (or less) away to find another Span-like guy to platoon in center, and still come out with  $20 to spend. In fact, IL4W already has that guy in a $6 Cameron Maybin. I legitimately ran Maybin and Span’s numbers last year against Jones for some reason, and they’re comparable. I’m not going out of my way to pick on Jones here, it just so happens I’ve already done the math. I do submit that a Span/Maybin platoon for $14 total will give you equivalent production to a $39 or whatever he is Jones, with $25 to spare.

IL4W came into the offseason with a very frustrating OF of potential and salary, but not much production. Randal Grichuk‘s move to Toronto helps a great deal, but he’s still $16. Joc Pederson is a $24 platoon hitter. Jason Heyward at $17 may not even be replacement level. Kyle Schwarber has almost no room for surplus value with a $61 salary, and all hope of catcher eligibility is gone. So I like adding Span, who should unlock LF eligibility in Tampa, to the mix. He’s old and boring, but safe, and safe is one thing IL4W doesn’t have in their outfield.

Added bonus for IL4W: Denard Span is a player that knows what it’s like to go from the bottom to a championship caliber team here in Dynasty Grinders. He’s got experience. He’s got leadership. He will no doubt improve IL4W’s clubhouse morale which, let’s face it, must be pretty bad following a 1-19 catastrophe.

Also, I was literally just yesterday contemplating asking TBD what they’d want to reunite with Span. Just because. I’d probably rather dump him back to auction and try my hand at winning him for $3-4, but the thought did cross my mind. Maybe I’m just bored. I’m probably just bored.

I do wonder what IL4W is going to do at catcher now. Are they really keeping Jonathan Lucroy for $30 after the season he had? I like Chris Iannetta at Coors for $5. Should be interesting, but it does seem like Avila could’ve been useful to them as a starting catcher in a good home park with a low salary.

Hustle’s toxic $0.02: I haven’t read what Bailey has said, but I’m sure Avila is better than posey too. .365 woba from Avila last year and now he’s moving to Chase Field (standard Hustle humidor reminder). TBD has hustled their way to a very productive cheap catching core. As for Span? He’s useful, but I’m not sure he’s an attractive use of budget for a rebuilding team who likely won’t be competing in 2018. I’d rather have Avila here considerably because of catcher scarcity. I think you probably need to shoot higher upside for outfielders unless Span is just depth piece, which in this case it isn’t. TBD has really been working magic this offseason.