Trade: Capital City Ironmen | Senior Squids

Capital City Ironmen trades away

  • Santana, Danny

Senior Squids trades away

  • Pederson, Joc
Senior Squids trades away

  • Moustakas, Mike

Capital City Ironmen trades away

  • Thomas, Alek

Jordan’s Thoughts

I find it pretty amusing that there’s back to back 1 for 1 deals between the same two teams. But, it happened. First, Danny Santana has broken all projections and just continues to prove the old adage that you can’t predict baseball. He’s only 28 years old somehow and probably pretty valuable.

Projection systems still believe a huge regression is coming and while he’s still going to be valuable as a .310-.330 wOBA player, its not likely he keeps up the .388 pace. Which is probably why Bailey traded him off for Joc who is having a good year with a .344 wOBA and is projected to improve the rest of the way. Its not a clear win for Bailey, but I’m leaning that way.

The other deal is the more peculiar one. Alek Thomas is a 50 FV prospect with an ETA 2022. 60 Hit, 40 game power… He is in the top 100 and hitting the ball in A ball. All seems fine. He’s a good prospect, probably worth having.

What’s also worth having is a 800 point hitter who costs less than $30. That’s what 30 year old Mike Moustakas is. Moustakas has consistently been good for a while now, while he does get streaky (plays hurt). The floor is high, consistent, and the ceiling is actually still fairly high. His keeper value is cheap and I just don’t get it. Alek Thomas needs to be really good three-four years from now for this to make sense. If Thomas is acquired to be a bullet to shoot into a trade for next year, I’d just rather have Moustakas next year.

I guess Thomas will be 27 in 2027, so that fits the window.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Marshall Law

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (JobuNeedsARefill)

Marshall Law trades away

  • Myers, Wil

Jordan’s Thoughts

Wil Myers was once traded for Bryce Harper. Now he’s a throw away deal for a useless draft pick. Wil Myers still squares up balls, but the exit velocity is below average. I think Wil Myers is probably what he is, is best asset to any team now is that he qualifies for most positions. Solid depth piece. Marshall Law won’t miss him, but didn’t gain much for giving him away.

 

Trade: Marshall Law | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Marshall Law trades away

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • Corbin Martin (RIP)
  • 2020 4th Round Pick

BAILEY’s Thoughts

Simply by getting something for a $59 Jake Arrieta, I will congratulate Marshall Law as the winner of this trade.

I had personally been interested in Arrieta as a depth piece, but I just couldn’t muster up much of an offer. He’s not particularly good anymore (4.95 FIP), he’s too expensive to keep or re-trade, and his playoff match-ups aren’t even favorable (@ CIN, vs. BOS and ATL). But still, he logs innings and if he’s your 9th or 10th starting pitcher, which he is for HLR, then he’s fine as a rental that you just hope you never really have to use and then just cut when the time comes. HLR is savvy enough picking up prospects that the 4th rounder doesn’t matter and Corbin Martin is out with Tommy John, so he’s going to miss all of 2020 and probably the early part of 2021. Maybe there’s a rotation spot for him when he returns, maybe not. Maybe he returns without any diminished skills, maybe not.

I don’t think Marshall Law was going to do better than this. It’s splitting hairs, maybe, because perhaps someone offers a non-broken prospect that you think is more interesting.

The most interesting part of this trade is what Arrieta goes for at auction after he’s inevitably cut, and that really has nothing to do with the trade. With the rule changes, the auction should be deeper than in prior years. But owners simply don’t drop good starting pitchers. So as usual, there should be a bunch of teams clamoring for pitching. Is Arrieta a $35-40 pitcher at auction simply because teams need arms and have too much cash to spend? It wouldn’t surprise me.

FAAB Pick Up of the Month: July 2019

Congratulations are in order!

The Commissioners Office of Dynasty Grinders is pleased to announce the FAAB Pick Up of the Month for July 2019: Brandon Crawford of the San Francisco Giants!

Crawford, who went for $4 of otherwise worthless FAAB, amassed an astounding 56.3 points in a single day. It was a thin schedule day, making this streaming effort all the more amazing. Wow. Stunning. Congratulations to Mr. Crawford!

When pressed for the details behind this FAAB addition, Capital City Ironmen general manager Andrew Bailey said, “I can’t take all the credit. I couldn’t have done it without my spreadsheet. I have a complicated algorithm that really favors players in doubleheaders at Coors Field, especially when they have the platoon advantage against terrible pitchers.”

Travis d’Arnaud, who put up 49 points in a single game, was named the runner-up for this award. Better luck next month, Mr. d’Arnaud, and congratulations to Josh Leavitt and Long Ball to LF for having the month’s second best FAAB pick-up. 🤷‍♂️

Prospects Lucius Fox, who was picked up for $1 on July 13 by The Foundation, and Parker Meadows, scooped up by Trust the Process for $0 on July 12, failed to receive any votes for this coveted award. Both players are turds.

Trade: Organized Chaos | JobuNeedsARefill

Organized Chaos trades away

  • SP Tyler Mahle ($5.50)
  • SP Nick Neidert

JobuNeedsARefill trades away

  • 2021 3rd Round Pick
  • RF Kyle Lewis
  • CF Mickey Moniak

BAILEY’s Thoughts

This is an interesting deal for both teams. For Jobu, I think getting $7-to-keep Tyler Mahle is a nice, cheap flier for 2020 and beyond. Mahle is currently averaging 25.14 points per start which, last time I checked, was a tick above average. As has been beaten into all of our heads, inexpensive average or better — sometimes even slightly below average — starters are real commodities. So adding Mahle, in the wise words of Jordan Gillis, “seems fine.”

Nick Neidert is, as I told Organized Chaos when he was offering him to me repeatedly, pretty much nothing. He’s been surpassed in the Marlins system by a half dozen other pitchers and unless he was getting called up tomorrow, I wouldn’t personally want to roster him. Moving on…

Mickey Moniak and Kyle Lewis are relics of the 2016 MLB Draft. Both have failed to live up to the hype, but they seem to maybe, possibly, hopefully be turning a corner this year. Moniak has a 121 WRC at AA this year, so yay, he’s an above average hitter in the minors for the first time since 2016. Kyle Lewis, who somehow is 24 years old already, has a 117 WRC+ at AA. Hooray, he’s an above average hitter for the first time since 2017. I mean… neither guy is doing anything spectacular and I’m not sure either is even a top 200 prospect at this point. But they have prospect pedigree and what not, so maybe they become something. With Lewis, he also has the bonus of being a Seattle Mariner prospect, so when Senior Squids decides to host his next fire sale and rebuild the rebuild of his rebuild, you can maybe flip Lewis to him for a cost controlled stud like Matt Chapman or something. Oh man, I’m gonna be blacklisted again.

Overall, my slightly respectful but unapologetic opinion is that this is a fair swap for both teams.

Trade: TBD | The Foundation

TBD trades away

  • Chirinos, Robinson

The Foundation trades away

  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Hustle Loyalty Respect)
  • 2021 Draft Pick, Round 4 (The Foundation)

Haddy’s Thoughts

The Foundation needed catching help badly, and gets a guy who will produce at or about replacement level rates but plays quite a bit for a catcher.  Chirinos is currently 8th in PAs this year.  His production is mediocre, but he’ll pop a big game from time to time.  His redeeming value is that he plays, and in a lineup that turns over.

TBD has Gary Sanchez and James McCann, making Chirinos expendable.  At 35, Chirinos likely doesn’t have a long future left and TBD nailed down a couple future assets that they will flip for something else down the road, either as a pick or a prospect they draft and cultivate.  With the 2020 #2 pick likely being somewhere in the 24-25 range, TBD should be able to find a nice player the rest of missed.

I like this trade for both sides as a need for future value play.

Trade Block Review: The Foundation

The Foundation is offering:

BAILEY’s Thoughts

The Foundation, pushing for a playoff spot, has realized the value of addition by subtraction and has listed Steven Matz on the trade block accordingly. I imagine the goal here is to trick someone into trading for this human home run machine, perhaps using shady and underhanded tactics.

What can Matz add to your fantasy team: well, salary, for one. He’s also still just 28, so you can fool yourself into believing he still has upside. And let’s be honest: if he’s cut this offseason, he’s going to go for $45 at auction anyway because there won’t be any starting pitchers available at auction while there will be nine teams who need five pitchers each. Someone will definitely gamble $45 that Matz has been converted back to a starter by then. I mean, Matt Harvey was kept at $34. The league-wide desire for pitching has gone well beyond just desperation. So by trading for Matz now, you can meet your awful pitcher quota early instead of bothering with the auction. Trade an asset, free up a future Saturday!

As for Jordan specifically, well, if he’d simply read the trade block post directly above him, he’d know precisely who to offer Matz to:

That’s right. HLR is desperate to acquire a streaming reliever. While Matz is considerably worse than any free agent relief pitcher out there, still, there could be a match here. Would HLR take on Matz in exchange for a coveted 5th round pick? There’s no telling.

Overall, this trade block sucks and The Foundation should be embarrassed to have posted it.

FINAL TRADE BLOCK GRADE: D-

Trade Hustle Loyalty Respect | Capital City Ironmen

Hustle Loyalty Respect🏃🤝✊trades away

  • Stammen, Craig $5.50
  • $3 Auction Cash

Capital City Ironmen trades away

  • Brebbia, John $5.50
  • $3 Auction Cash

Jordan’s Thoughts

Craig Stammen has been an average reliever for the Padres this year. He was recently picked up from the free agent waiver wire this morning. With his high keeper price tag, and the low ceiling value of relievers. I think Stammen is just plugging a hole here.

John Brebbia has been an average reliever for the Cardinals this year. He was recently picked up from the free agent waiver wire this morning. With his high keeper price tag, and the low ceiling value of relievers. I think Brebbia is just plugging a hole here.

The $3 swaps of auction cash likely balances out before the auction. I think both sides plugged holes they felt needing plugging and it cost them nothing. I am certain the trade gave both +5 in the relationship experience bar. That could be valuable soon!

Trade: Who’s Your Haddy? | Marshall Law

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Adams, Jordyn (prospect)
  • Andújar, Miguel $7.03

Marshall Law trades away

  • Ornelas, Tirso (prospect)
  • Torres, Jhon (prospect)
  • Murphy, Daniel $24

Hustle’s TOXICO $.02

OK, I’ll go first this time. Haddy is clearly playing for 2020 (or 2021 if I’m being respectful and non apologetic), so I don’t really get the thrill of Murphy. Maybe he flips him, maybe he keeps him. Murphy is a former HLR Legend, as we all know, and after a slow start to the year, he’s been quite good in recent months. I’m not sure his thumb is all the way healed, which makes his last few months even more impressive.  Murphy at $26 next year as a 35 year old seems OK, but with more injuries piling up, it’s very easy to see him as a frustrating asset moving forward. $26 isn’t a lot, and Andjuar has his flaws (lack of walks and potential playing time), but I think I rather take my shot on the youngster with the age and salary on his side.

All the prospects involved in this deal have taken a value hit from beginning of season until now. Adams is the rawest/athletic of the bunch, so his struggles this year seem least problematic.  Adams for Tirso seems fine and fair as is, not a huge difference between the two at the moment. Both are expected to add more power over the years and seem like solid “buy lows”, so that aspect of the deal seems like a challenge trade for both teams here.  Jhon Torres was a pop up prospect last year who excelled in Rookie ball and has done nothing this year.  He’s the closest of the 3 to being nothing, and he’s sprinting to that at the moment.

Jordan’s thoughts

I debated reading Hustle’s take first, just to figure out who these prospects are. But, because of comments like this:

I feel like I have set the bar so very high. To course correct, I’ll mail this one in. It seems like people in this trade, swapped assets with each other that they were over and tired of looking at.

So, who wins the trade? Well both of them do of course because they got to hang out and talk shop for a solid relationship building minute and get something done.

Trade: Marshall Law | TBD

Marshall Law trades away

  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Marshall Law)
  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Marshall Law)

TBD trades away

  • Freeland, Kyle $5

Jordan’s thoughts

So last year Kyle Freeland was really good. Like really really good. This year he has been bad enough to get demoted back to the minor leagues. Last year he limited HR/9 to 0.76, and this year its at 2.43. That’s really bad. Seems a little fluky, but it’s a problem. His walk rate is up too, but this seems all fixable.

These are the kinds of deals I love seeing teams like Marshall Law making. You see an asset available. He’s covered in mud. Value might be low, might not ever recover. But, the best prospect is a young player who has already had success the majors in my opinion. Even if Freeland is just bad for the rest of time, two draft picks costs nothing to take a chance at potentially getting a above average starting pitcher.

For TBD, you like getting draft picks for players that are potential cuts. When you’re on top of the standings, the roster crunch doesn’t allow you to sit on players who have faded. So getting some value from a team that likely isn’t a threat to you this year is a win win.

 

Hustle’s Toxico $.02

Going to try and do that thing where I don’t read the review above first.

Trade Seems Fine (TM). It’s not super exciting for either party, which means it’s a reasonable trade.  I would never trade a bunch for a non exciting Rockies pitcher, but this wasn’t a bunch. The Rockies thought Kyle Freeland was so bad, even by their standards, that he had to go down to AAA after a pretty stellar 2018.  In AAA, Freeland has continued to be bad.  I think one pick should probably have been enough to get this done, but this is nitpicking.  If I’m throwing darts at back end starters, I rather use just one pick or move or move on to a different starter. I doubt there was a bidding war for Freeland, and I doubt TBD doesn’t jump on the opportunity to acquire a free pick and pick up a new green flag guy.  If Marshall is optimistic on Freeland more than just a dart throw, then adding in a low end pick seems more than fine to do. If Freeland turns it around, he seems like a great under $10 pitcher keep.  Either way, I like this trade for both teams.

AT THIS POINT, I HAVE DECIDED TO READ JORDAN’S REVIEW.

I like Jordan’s review better than mine. He used more numbers.  Also, I noticed I wrote “toxico” instead of “toxic”.  I kind of like toxico more now.  Let me know your thoughts.