FAAB Pick Up of the Month: July 2019

Congratulations are in order!

The Commissioners Office of Dynasty Grinders is pleased to announce the FAAB Pick Up of the Month for July 2019: Brandon Crawford of the San Francisco Giants!

Crawford, who went for $4 of otherwise worthless FAAB, amassed an astounding 56.3 points in a single day. It was a thin schedule day, making this streaming effort all the more amazing. Wow. Stunning. Congratulations to Mr. Crawford!

When pressed for the details behind this FAAB addition, Capital City Ironmen general manager Andrew Bailey said, “I can’t take all the credit. I couldn’t have done it without my spreadsheet. I have a complicated algorithm that really favors players in doubleheaders at Coors Field, especially when they have the platoon advantage against terrible pitchers.”

Travis d’Arnaud, who put up 49 points in a single game, was named the runner-up for this award. Better luck next month, Mr. d’Arnaud, and congratulations to Josh Leavitt and Long Ball to LF for having the month’s second best FAAB pick-up. 🤷‍♂️

Prospects Lucius Fox, who was picked up for $1 on July 13 by The Foundation, and Parker Meadows, scooped up by Trust the Process for $0 on July 12, failed to receive any votes for this coveted award. Both players are turds.

Trade: Organized Chaos | JobuNeedsARefill

Organized Chaos trades away

  • SP Tyler Mahle ($5.50)
  • SP Nick Neidert

JobuNeedsARefill trades away

  • 2021 3rd Round Pick
  • RF Kyle Lewis
  • CF Mickey Moniak

BAILEY’s Thoughts

This is an interesting deal for both teams. For Jobu, I think getting $7-to-keep Tyler Mahle is a nice, cheap flier for 2020 and beyond. Mahle is currently averaging 25.14 points per start which, last time I checked, was a tick above average. As has been beaten into all of our heads, inexpensive average or better — sometimes even slightly below average — starters are real commodities. So adding Mahle, in the wise words of Jordan Gillis, “seems fine.”

Nick Neidert is, as I told Organized Chaos when he was offering him to me repeatedly, pretty much nothing. He’s been surpassed in the Marlins system by a half dozen other pitchers and unless he was getting called up tomorrow, I wouldn’t personally want to roster him. Moving on…

Mickey Moniak and Kyle Lewis are relics of the 2016 MLB Draft. Both have failed to live up to the hype, but they seem to maybe, possibly, hopefully be turning a corner this year. Moniak has a 121 WRC at AA this year, so yay, he’s an above average hitter in the minors for the first time since 2016. Kyle Lewis, who somehow is 24 years old already, has a 117 WRC+ at AA. Hooray, he’s an above average hitter for the first time since 2017. I mean… neither guy is doing anything spectacular and I’m not sure either is even a top 200 prospect at this point. But they have prospect pedigree and what not, so maybe they become something. With Lewis, he also has the bonus of being a Seattle Mariner prospect, so when Senior Squids decides to host his next fire sale and rebuild the rebuild of his rebuild, you can maybe flip Lewis to him for a cost controlled stud like Matt Chapman or something. Oh man, I’m gonna be blacklisted again.

Overall, my slightly respectful but unapologetic opinion is that this is a fair swap for both teams.

Trade: TBD | The Foundation

TBD trades away

  • Chirinos, Robinson

The Foundation trades away

  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Hustle Loyalty Respect)
  • 2021 Draft Pick, Round 4 (The Foundation)

Haddy’s Thoughts

The Foundation needed catching help badly, and gets a guy who will produce at or about replacement level rates but plays quite a bit for a catcher.  Chirinos is currently 8th in PAs this year.  His production is mediocre, but he’ll pop a big game from time to time.  His redeeming value is that he plays, and in a lineup that turns over.

TBD has Gary Sanchez and James McCann, making Chirinos expendable.  At 35, Chirinos likely doesn’t have a long future left and TBD nailed down a couple future assets that they will flip for something else down the road, either as a pick or a prospect they draft and cultivate.  With the 2020 #2 pick likely being somewhere in the 24-25 range, TBD should be able to find a nice player the rest of missed.

I like this trade for both sides as a need for future value play.

Trade Block Review: The Foundation

The Foundation is offering:

BAILEY’s Thoughts

The Foundation, pushing for a playoff spot, has realized the value of addition by subtraction and has listed Steven Matz on the trade block accordingly. I imagine the goal here is to trick someone into trading for this human home run machine, perhaps using shady and underhanded tactics.

What can Matz add to your fantasy team: well, salary, for one. He’s also still just 28, so you can fool yourself into believing he still has upside. And let’s be honest: if he’s cut this offseason, he’s going to go for $45 at auction anyway because there won’t be any starting pitchers available at auction while there will be nine teams who need five pitchers each. Someone will definitely gamble $45 that Matz has been converted back to a starter by then. I mean, Matt Harvey was kept at $34. The league-wide desire for pitching has gone well beyond just desperation. So by trading for Matz now, you can meet your awful pitcher quota early instead of bothering with the auction. Trade an asset, free up a future Saturday!

As for Jordan specifically, well, if he’d simply read the trade block post directly above him, he’d know precisely who to offer Matz to:

That’s right. HLR is desperate to acquire a streaming reliever. While Matz is considerably worse than any free agent relief pitcher out there, still, there could be a match here. Would HLR take on Matz in exchange for a coveted 5th round pick? There’s no telling.

Overall, this trade block sucks and The Foundation should be embarrassed to have posted it.

FINAL TRADE BLOCK GRADE: D-

Trade Hustle Loyalty Respect | Capital City Ironmen

Hustle Loyalty Respect🏃🤝✊trades away

  • Stammen, Craig $5.50
  • $3 Auction Cash

Capital City Ironmen trades away

  • Brebbia, John $5.50
  • $3 Auction Cash

Jordan’s Thoughts

Craig Stammen has been an average reliever for the Padres this year. He was recently picked up from the free agent waiver wire this morning. With his high keeper price tag, and the low ceiling value of relievers. I think Stammen is just plugging a hole here.

John Brebbia has been an average reliever for the Cardinals this year. He was recently picked up from the free agent waiver wire this morning. With his high keeper price tag, and the low ceiling value of relievers. I think Brebbia is just plugging a hole here.

The $3 swaps of auction cash likely balances out before the auction. I think both sides plugged holes they felt needing plugging and it cost them nothing. I am certain the trade gave both +5 in the relationship experience bar. That could be valuable soon!

Trade: Who’s Your Haddy? | Marshall Law

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Adams, Jordyn (prospect)
  • Andújar, Miguel $7.03

Marshall Law trades away

  • Ornelas, Tirso (prospect)
  • Torres, Jhon (prospect)
  • Murphy, Daniel $24

Hustle’s TOXICO $.02

OK, I’ll go first this time. Haddy is clearly playing for 2020 (or 2021 if I’m being respectful and non apologetic), so I don’t really get the thrill of Murphy. Maybe he flips him, maybe he keeps him. Murphy is a former HLR Legend, as we all know, and after a slow start to the year, he’s been quite good in recent months. I’m not sure his thumb is all the way healed, which makes his last few months even more impressive.  Murphy at $26 next year as a 35 year old seems OK, but with more injuries piling up, it’s very easy to see him as a frustrating asset moving forward. $26 isn’t a lot, and Andjuar has his flaws (lack of walks and potential playing time), but I think I rather take my shot on the youngster with the age and salary on his side.

All the prospects involved in this deal have taken a value hit from beginning of season until now. Adams is the rawest/athletic of the bunch, so his struggles this year seem least problematic.  Adams for Tirso seems fine and fair as is, not a huge difference between the two at the moment. Both are expected to add more power over the years and seem like solid “buy lows”, so that aspect of the deal seems like a challenge trade for both teams here.  Jhon Torres was a pop up prospect last year who excelled in Rookie ball and has done nothing this year.  He’s the closest of the 3 to being nothing, and he’s sprinting to that at the moment.

Jordan’s thoughts

I debated reading Hustle’s take first, just to figure out who these prospects are. But, because of comments like this:

I feel like I have set the bar so very high. To course correct, I’ll mail this one in. It seems like people in this trade, swapped assets with each other that they were over and tired of looking at.

So, who wins the trade? Well both of them do of course because they got to hang out and talk shop for a solid relationship building minute and get something done.

Trade: Marshall Law | TBD

Marshall Law trades away

  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Marshall Law)
  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Marshall Law)

TBD trades away

  • Freeland, Kyle $5

Jordan’s thoughts

So last year Kyle Freeland was really good. Like really really good. This year he has been bad enough to get demoted back to the minor leagues. Last year he limited HR/9 to 0.76, and this year its at 2.43. That’s really bad. Seems a little fluky, but it’s a problem. His walk rate is up too, but this seems all fixable.

These are the kinds of deals I love seeing teams like Marshall Law making. You see an asset available. He’s covered in mud. Value might be low, might not ever recover. But, the best prospect is a young player who has already had success the majors in my opinion. Even if Freeland is just bad for the rest of time, two draft picks costs nothing to take a chance at potentially getting a above average starting pitcher.

For TBD, you like getting draft picks for players that are potential cuts. When you’re on top of the standings, the roster crunch doesn’t allow you to sit on players who have faded. So getting some value from a team that likely isn’t a threat to you this year is a win win.

 

Hustle’s Toxico $.02

Going to try and do that thing where I don’t read the review above first.

Trade Seems Fine (TM). It’s not super exciting for either party, which means it’s a reasonable trade.  I would never trade a bunch for a non exciting Rockies pitcher, but this wasn’t a bunch. The Rockies thought Kyle Freeland was so bad, even by their standards, that he had to go down to AAA after a pretty stellar 2018.  In AAA, Freeland has continued to be bad.  I think one pick should probably have been enough to get this done, but this is nitpicking.  If I’m throwing darts at back end starters, I rather use just one pick or move or move on to a different starter. I doubt there was a bidding war for Freeland, and I doubt TBD doesn’t jump on the opportunity to acquire a free pick and pick up a new green flag guy.  If Marshall is optimistic on Freeland more than just a dart throw, then adding in a low end pick seems more than fine to do. If Freeland turns it around, he seems like a great under $10 pitcher keep.  Either way, I like this trade for both teams.

AT THIS POINT, I HAVE DECIDED TO READ JORDAN’S REVIEW.

I like Jordan’s review better than mine. He used more numbers.  Also, I noticed I wrote “toxico” instead of “toxic”.  I kind of like toxico more now.  Let me know your thoughts.

 

Trade: Organized Chaos | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Organized Chaos trades away:

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away:

  • 1B Grant Lavigne
  • SP Lucas Sims ($5.50)
  • 2020 3rd Round Pick

BAILEY’s Thoughts

If I had to bet money on who in this league is the biggest “Rick Porcello fan,” I’d put money on myself. Yet… despite Porcello being relentlessly offered to everyone, I never pulled the trigger. And I’m okay with it.

Porcello’s been a good, if not great, pitcher throughout his career who offers a solid, boring floor and some occasional clunkers. He’s durable and reliable. This year there have been more clunkers than normal, but at least one (the stupid London) game you can safely disregard. Going forward, I expect Porcello to be a decent depth starter that usually won’t kill you. In this league, my problem is his salary for what he is. If there weren’t salaries, his value goes up, in my opinion. But because there are and he’s $25 ($27 to keep, minimum)… I find him in a weird gray area of keepable players. You could keep him. But I wouldn’t, personally. Those clunkers I just mentioned have been going up in frequency and the floor seems to be getting lower and lower, which is all fine because it’s still a fairly safe floor, but Porcello at $27 isn’t all that different from a bunch of $10 or less dart throws. I suspect that — and what I’ve got to say, was a crazy high asking price — is what made this trade take so long to finally happen. Another thing about Porcello: there’s great temptation to sit him in tough match-ups, but he’s a pretty good pitcher overall, so sometimes he does really well in those games. He’s good to randomly dominate the Yankees on your bench once a year. Which does you zero good and is really frustrating.

In the end, Swinson got, for starters, basically a fringe top-150 prospect in Grant Lavigne, who I feel like falls outside the top-200 in most circles if not for the prospect of playing home games in Coors Field. I haven’t paid much attention to him, but I believe Hustle offered him to me recently, and one thing I think I know about Hustle is this: he’s really good at finding prospects (“he’s the single greatest prospector I’ve ever played with, hands down, no exceptions” – Steve Fernsler), but if he offers you one, he’s either getting something awesome in return or feels comfortable replacing the guy with someone else off waivers. I think the latter is the case here. Lavigne’s a teenage 1Bman-only prospect that beasted last year but has underwhelmed this year over a larger sample. So basically, the upside isn’t there and the wait time is too long for a guy that plays a position that’s super easy to fill, so this trade shuttles him off with profit and lets Hustle add a better lottery ticket off waivers. Seems fine!

So in addition to Lavigne, there’s Lucas Sims, who was once a top prospect but sort of fell off the map, then reappeared this year in Cincinnati. He had one good start in May and then… vanished. I mean, not vanished. He’s alive and pitches. But it’s in the minors, where he’s got a 1.09 HR/9. He’s also not cost controlled, so he’s $7 to keep right now, which really is fine. If he was cost controlled he’d be $1 instead and the $6 is pretty irrelevant. But still. That makes Sims a tad less valuable. Cost control is life.

And finally, there’s a third round pick which… okay, cool. Whatever.

In the end, this trade is weird to me as someone who received a ton of Porcello offers over the months. This deal is Porcello for Lavigne in my eyes, which is… well, seems like a way lower asking price than I ever recall seeing. Maybe I’m just not high enough on Sims and don’t care enough about draft picks (I recently traded a first rounder for Andrelton Simmons and legitimately have no idea why, but someone else actually traded a pick for a relief pitcher so I don’t feel as bad about that anymore). And again, if one owner maybe, possibly thinks they can pick a better prospect up off waivers tomorrow in Lavigne… what’s that say about the haul?

Anyway, trade is obviously fine overall. I’d rather have HLR’s side here even if cutting Porcello at year’s end, but I at least like knowing that Coach shopped and shopped and presumably landed here, on a deal he likes.

Trade: TBD | Who’s Your Haddy?

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away:

  • RP Kirby Yates $2

TBD trades away:

  • 2020 3rd Round Pick

BAILEY’s Thoughts

This is pretty great for Haddy. Relievers are meant to be either streamed or paid totally unnecessary amounts of money at auction. It is their only destiny. Even though Kirby Yates is one of the best ones, still, he’s not worth very much, as reflected here. His week to week impact is minimal and his edge over replacement at his position, plus the sheer volume of relievers available, make him just not that big a deal. Getting a 3rd round pick feels like a steal for Haddy. It also feels like way more than he got for Buster Posey. #RespectfulButUnapologetic

For TBD, this is a funny flex move. Josh and Joe (mostly Josh, I think; he told me Joe doesn’t know very much about prospects so he’s the one that does most of the pick-ups there. Just a fun trivia nugget) are so good at picking up prospects off waivers that they punted a 3rd round pick for a bullpen piece. It’s bad, but it also won’t matter for them at all. Their team, led by cost controlled stud Matt Chapman, is stacked. A mid-round pick is nothing.

Trade: The Process | Who’s Your Haddy?

Image result for hunter pence

 

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Gibson, Kyle $15
  • Pence, Hunter $5.50

The Process trades away

  • Trammell, Taylor (prospect)
  • La Stella, Tommy $5.50

Jordan’s Thoughts

Ferns continues his all in push by swapping out this year’s Justin Turner break out candidate Tommy La Stella who just broke his leg for two useful pieces. La Stella poses to be an easy keeper into next year even if he gets greeded significantly.

Hunter Pence found a time machine back to his 2011 former self and has been hitting a .393 wOBA with a 142 wRC+. But, he’s hurt. Will the magic rebirth fade away? Who knows.

Kyle Gibson has given up a few extra homers this year, but has walked more than a batter less per nine innings. He’s getting better, and if the home run rate regresses for him, he’s a legit top end pitcher for fantasy purposes. However, in 2019’s home run setting, Gibson is merely above average.

Taylor Trammel is a top 10 prospect and a pretty significant price to pay for Pence and Gibson. Trammel isn’t exactly lighting up the minor leagues, but he’s moving up at a reasonable rate and he has incredible plate discipline.

I like the trade for both teams. Ferns isn’t making this deal if La Stella isn’t hurt. Sometimes those kinds of things happen and force some action. Pence’s long term value is little at best, but Kyle Gibson has been slowly ascending tiers. I prefer Haddy’s side all said and done, but barely.

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

Value wise, this trade really does seem fine. I like it for both teams. Hunter Pence is something again, but clearly has overachieved and not counting on him for next season seems like a no brainer decision for Haddy, even if that one somehow backfires. For Ferns, he’s a useful OF/UTIL piece rest of a season with the potential to keep cheaply.

Kyle Gibson as a sub $20 keeper next year is an underrated asset.  He’s depth to Ferns rotation now and an easy unexciting keep.  The auction will be slightly better this year, but if you think you’re picking up multiple solid SP options in the 2020 season, you’re probably wrong.  If you think you’re going to win good cheap SP options in the 2020 auction for 2021, you’re almost definitely wrong.  I’ve had cap space in the 2017/2018 auctions and went after pitching and don’t think anyone ended up on my team the year after from those picks. Not to say it hasn’t or can’t be done, but it’s quite difficult and flukey.  Haddy is thin on SP and this makes his rotation for next year even thinner.  With a lot of budget, just keeping Gibson and needing one less SPs makes some sense.

“Tommy La Stella’s injury is a crushing blow to The Process” is a sentence I never thought I’d be saying non-sarcastically. But I did. If La Stella is the new Justin Turner, that certainly favors Haddy’s side here.  Much like with his Montas acquisition, who knows if they are truly for real. I actually dont hate getting both those guys for Haddy at all. They were cheaper to acquire than sexy minor leaguers, are very cheap, and are major league ready. If Montas and La Stella are even close to what we’ve seen this year, it will really jumpstart his rebuild.

As I have told Bailey well before this trade was made, I believe Taylor Trammel’s best use in an ottoneu points themed league is for tradebait.  He seems like a major leaguer one day, but I’m having trouble seeing him anything more than a servicable starter. He just seems like a better real life player or for a league that counts steals. His name surpasses his value here, and even after I take this minor poop on him, Haddy should have no trouble trading him for someone more useful to him. He’s on lists, he’s a dude, he’s tradebait.