Trade: Marshall Law | Who’s Your Haddy?

Marshall Law trades away
SP Kevin Gausman ($23)

Who’s Your Haddy?¬†trades away
2020 3rd round pick

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

This seems reasonable for both teams. Any time you see a guy traded for a 3rd-5th rounder this time of year, assume he was getting cut by the team trading him away. Marshall is blatantly parsing down his salary commitments to make a run at a big time free agent. Who could it be? I have a well-placed source that says he’s got his eyes set on throwing $80 or so at Jeff Samardzija and Mike Fiers, who he could almost definitely turn around and flip to a pitching starved team after auction for prospects no one’s ever heard of. By getting this third rounder, Marshall has jumped in front of all my recently-acquired 3rds, which is truly devastating for my morale.

For Haddy, Kevin Gausman is a solid dice roll. He’s had flashes of greatness (to be fair, he’s also had flashes of relieverness and Orioleness/turdness) but at the cost of $23 salary and a draft pick, I like it. After cutting unkeepable $112 Mike Trout (per my spreadsheet), Haddy will have tons of salary to squander, so this helps prevent that a bit ahead of auction.

HUSTLE’s toxic $0.02

Trade seems fine for both teams.¬† Marshall lets go of former HLR legend, Kevin Gausman , but instead of cutting him gets a 3rd round pick.¬† So, that’s a win for him.¬† For Haddy, he makes a de facto auction purchase via trade. I think $22 is about what Gausman would go for, assuming he’s in the rotation, so adding a 3rd pick to secure a guy you like is probably a good move. It’s a low upside acquisition, but also a low cost one. I like it for both teams given their current roster construction.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Crapitol Shitty Income

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away
2023 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Hustle Loyalty Respect)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
2023 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Capital City Ironmen)

 

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

I anticipate that my team places better than Bailey’s in 2022 because a lot of his guys will have retired, thus I’d like to lock in a slightly better pick. It was announced that 2023 is the last expansion draft of our minor leaguers, so a 5th rounder will have some value.

BAILEY’s thoughts

I expect that my team will be better than Hustle’s in 2022 because I anticipate Nelson Cruz scoring 1,000 points per season well into his mid-50’s. Worst case, Hustle will end up with the higher pick and draft a prospect better than me, which honestly hurts me less than it does the teams who are hellbent on rebuilding despite having worse farm systems AND major league rosters than Hustle already has.

 

BAILEY’S Nonsense

Trade: Long Ball to LF | Whatever Kyle’s Team is Named This Week

Long Ball to LF trades away
1B CJ Cron ($10)

Whatever Kyle’s Team is Named This Week trades away
$12 Auction budget

 

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

So I actually like CJ Cron as an under the radar, low cost solution to 1B/UT. He’s got 55 homers the last two years and should be starting every day now that he plays for the tanking Tigers. That said, one look at Long Ball’s roster and I think you can deduce Cron was getting cut. Would he go for more than $22 (his salary plus the acquisition cost here) at auction? I highly, highly doubt it. I feel like that only happens if a team takes $250-$300 into auction and realizes there’s nothing to spend it on, and even then, they need someone else to bid the price up. I also kinda feel like at that price, he’s no longer a “low cost solution.” I mean, maybe he goes for $15 but I think his $10 salary is about his cap at auction. If he would’ve gone for $15 then fine, you wasted $7 by making this trade and that won’t really sting. I don’t know. I’m pacing to cut Joey Votto and Steamer projects him as a top 25-30 overall hitter. How much more than $22 is he going for at auction, given most people don’t want old guys? It’s not a horrible deal but I would’ve rather just taken $22 into auction because I think you can come away with a better player than Cron. For Long Ball, this seems fantastic. He turned a cut into $12 and I reckon he can convert that $12 into at the very least a player comparable to Cron.

 

HUSTLE’s toxic $0.02

I prefer the side for¬† Long Balls here, but not by that much. CJ Cron is a former HLR Legend, so I will always have respect for his contributions. $22 spent by Kyle to buy and keep him here seems fine, but bordering on probably not needed. It might be better to roll the dice in auction and spend a few more or less to get him if he’s your only option. CJ Cron has a lot of playing time coming his way if he can stay healthy, so he’s someone you’ll feel pretty good in fitting in a 1b or UT slot on most days, but he’s not a game changer and ideally you do want someone better in one of those spots. He cut his strike out rate almost 5 full points from the previous two years, but the paltry walk out rate for a slugger remains the issue that keeps him from being a fantasy star.

$22 for Cron is certainly better than the $26 for Bruce or $32 for Adam Jones last year. There weren’t basically any middle of the lineup hitters in last year’s auction, so that may have been a good price last year, but I imagine it might not be this year.¬† Maybe it will. Cron is a nice depth piece to have, and even at $22 auction dollars total, that’s not a big price.

Trade: Marshall Law | Senior Squids

Senior Squids trades away
CF/RF Avisail Garcia ($10)

Marshall Law trades away
3B Kyle Seager ($33)

HUSTLE’s toxic $0.02

This trade isn’t as cut and dry as Avisail is $23 cheaper, so this is a win for Marshall. Maybe it is. Elton certainly has a crater at 3b right with just Tommy Edman as his starting 3b (use to be cost controlled Matt Chapman). Seager was a beast in the second half and spending $33 for anything close to that 2nd half seems pretty fine, especially at the cost of Avisail Garcia who has been traded probably half a dozen times in our league’s history. Yes, Avisail is a former HLR legend (as is half the league at this point). I like Avisail a decent amount, and going to Milwaukee certainly helps. That being said, Avisail won’t be an every day player and Seager will be, so I think that mitigated at least some of the price difference. The auction money really doesn’t matter unless you’re trying to fit in an additional really good player, so I don’t see the price as a big deal. Seager helps Elton’s team more this year than Avisail was and committing a year to that contract doesn’t seem like a big deal. Marshall probably wasn’t keeping a $33 Seager to backup Moncada, but with no backup now he will look for a cheaper replacement in auction or the wire. I think both owners here did a good adding roster depth to their own teams at the cost of surplus on their own.

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

After trading cost controlled stud 3Bman Matt Chapman away for a Mariners prospect without first listing him on the trade block to surely ignite a bidding war, Senior Squids needed a 3Bman. Kyle Seager is a pretty good one. Prior to 2018, he was one of the best, most consistent guys in the league and in the second half of 2019 he looked like that same guy. I think he’s overpriced, but Squids is in a spot to potentially take a bunch of money to auction which seems like a recipe for disaster even though The Bundle has ensured this will be our strongest auction ever. May as well add pieces now. Squids announced publicly in Slack a while ago that he didn’t intend to compete in 2020, so one path here is that immediately after auction he could shop Seager to teams with high salaries like mine that can’t currently add much and get more than he paid here. Salary stuff aside, Seager is more appealing to contenders than Avisail in 2020, right? I guess there’s a debate to be had there but I lean yes.

Anyway, this trade seems okay for both teams if you don’t believe the $23 difference between the two players matters much. Clearly, Marshall believes it does (let’s be honest, he was cutting Seager) and Elton believes it doesn’t. I like a good challenge trade. Shrugging emoji.

It’s a Crapitol Shitty Type of Review

Marshall Law trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (JobuNeedsARefill)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Roberto Perez ($7)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Capital City Ironmen)

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02:¬†Marshall needed a catcher so he traded down in the 5th round (11 picks total) to get a $7 Roberto Perez.¬† The price was basically free. So why not? Perez’ Streamer slash line is projected at 219/303/399 slash, which would be down from 239/321/452 of last year.¬† If he regresses that much he might not be worth owning. His biggest asset is PAs at catcher, and currently he’s expected to get a decent amount. $7 in auction for Perez would be fine, last year Tucker Barnhart went for $23. That might not be the guide to guy by, but clearly shows some people’s desperation if it goes to auction. As bad as a $23 was for Barnhart, someone bid $22.¬† This is a nice way to lock in some catcher PAs¬† and Marshall was currently carrying a blank there, so this is a cheap fix.¬† For Bailey?¬† Moving up 11 picks in the 5th makes his farm just a bit stronger than it was before this trade. Congrats.

 

Organized Chaos trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Marshall Law)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (JobuNeedsARefill)
Clayton Kershaw ($125)

Hustle’s Toxic $.02:¬†First thought that comes to my mind when seeing this trade come in is remembering that Kershaw was traded straight up for a 5th round pick a couple months ago. So Bailey clearly profited here. Turned two 5th round picks into a 3rd. Somehow, his farm got even stronger. Back to back trades.¬† His rebuild is hitting its stride here.¬† Well done sir.

For Swinson, he gives up a 3rd round pick for a very overpriced Kershaw.¬† If Kershaw gets thrown back in, he goes for a lot. Maybe 90, maybe 120, maybe more. A few teams have a lot of money heading into auction, Swinson basically made his purchase at the expense of a mid round pick. It seems good. Rounding out his budget with a high end pitcher seems smart with his roster, and if it doesn’t work out, he can probably get a pretty decent haul for a Kershaw rental.¬† The only critique here is probably not getting on it earlier where as it might have only costed him a 4th or 5th, but that’s a minor point. Leaving auction money on the table is the worst thing you can do, and this ensures Swinson won’t.

 

Trumpa Loompas trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Capital City Ironmen)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Wade Miley ($3)

Hustle’s Toxic $.02¬†Wade Miley was pretty useful in the first half last season and terrible in the second half.¬† Trumpas picks up¬† $3 pitcher for a 3rd round pick. With Innings Pitched instead of starts, Miley’s disaster games will hurt a little less.¬† I wouldn’t bet on Miley to be a very good pitcher in 2020, especially heading to Great American Smallpark, but this also wasn’t a very big bet.¬† I like this move to add SP depth for Trumpas.

Yet again, Bailey has made his farm stronger by getting a mid round pick. I’m in awe of the mobility he’s created in his rebuild. At this pace, by 2025, he might have a top 10 farm in Dynasty Grinders. Things are looking up!

The trade was for the 44th pick of the 2020 draft which has now been traded back and forth at least 4 times and is now back on Bailey’s team. The anticipation of whoever is picked here (likely Noah Song), will be through the roof come draft day! 21 days away!

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Julio Teheran $33)

Trumpa Loompas trades away
2021 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Trumpa Loompas)
2022 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Trumpa Loompas)

Just when I thought the nonsense was over, they bring me back in.  Bailey is on a mission here with all these picks.  2 more 3rd rounders!  He just bumped up his window in being a top 10 farm (maybe) by a full year. 2024.

For Trumpas, I think this is fine. Ideally you only give up one 3rd rounder here.¬† Julio Teheran moving to a better pitchers park helps his value. $33 seems about what he’d go for in auction. If he goes for less, it wouldn’t be a tremendous amount. Trumpas adds some more depth to its rotation that was in dire need for it. Maybe seeing Kershaw go off the board earlier in the day inspired Trumpas to make his de facto auction purchase.

Even if I’m not optimistic about his chances for Tehran’s success in 2020, the price was low enough for the gamble. Other than the Kershaw deal, that seems to be the trend in all three of these.

Bailey got some trade sweetners and since we are expanding 5 spots through 2023, these third rounders will have some value going forward.

Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away
SP Steven Matz ($33)
3B Rylan Bannon (“prospect”)

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
2020 2nd Round Pick

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

I like this trade for We Talk Fantasy Sports because a second round pick is likely to amount to nothing*, although it is less likely to amount to nothing when made by Hustle Loyalty Respect (“the greatest fantasy baseball prospector of his generation” – Steve Fernsler, 2019), while Steven Matz will score points. So there’s that. I like that this move signals WTFS is at least trying to be competitive (bold and daring!) in 2020 instead of mailing it in. Maybe he should probably keep dumping mid-round picks for decent guys and see what happens. I feel like if you spend two random hours in June researching prospects, you can probably find a guy on waivers comparable to whoever you’d get in the second round anyway. I mean, I picked up Pedro Miguel Martinez from the free agent scrap heap and now he’s getting lots of hype on prospect Twitter and appearing on all the dynasty top-100 lists.

* The best second rounders in 2019 were renowned slap dick prospect Xavier Edwards (he will be a stud if we change our scoring to make stolen bases worth 50 points a piece), Tristan Casas, and Alek Thomas, and the latter is mostly valuable because he was traded straight up for a $22 player that scores 800+ points every year and now gets to play all his home games in baseball’s second friendliest hitter’s park. Wander Franco was a second rounder in 2018 though.

Anyway, the trade is fine overall, I will just take the side that is adding a player that will score points in 2020. Good job, Keith. Okay job, Jonny. Have a good day.

 

Trade: The Foundation | Marshall Law

The Foundation trades away
2021 1st Round Pick

Marshall Law trades away
LF/CF/RF Jesse Winker ($5, cost controlled)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

I’d definitely rather have Jesse Winker (26 years old, .362 career wOBA) than a draft pick a year from now. But I also feel like you can probably trade the pick four months from now and get more for it than you could trading Winker four months from now, since the buying team in that scenario will probably think a 26 year old doesn’t fit their contention window several years into the future. The only obstacle for Winker is playing time but he’s so cheap that it almost doesn’t matter. I would’ve probably paid more than just one future 1st, so good deal for Jordan I guess.

I assume Marshall got pumped the White Sox signed Luis Robert and will have him on the opening day roster, making Winker expendable. That seems fine to me. Steamer projects Robert to score a whopping 12.9 more points than Winker in 2020, although both projections currently assume those guys aren’t getting full time playing time. Robert’s projection should go up, although Winker still projects better on a Pt/PA basis. But shut up nerd, none of that matters because the goal is to play fantasy baseball and not Spread Sheet Supervisor‚ĄĘ.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

Jesse Winker has eligibility at each OF spot and currently I see only Nimmo, Betts, and Peralta as decent OFers on Marshall’s team with not the most exciting UT options. I guess Robert signing the contract is a good 4th OF to have, but the position situation for Marshall Law isn’t so deep to give away Winker for a pick. The Foundation seems poised to regress from last year, which will make the pick more valuable than it would be this year, but having the 6-9th pick vs having a good cheap OF now seems questionable. It’s a risky move, and I think I agree with Bailey that I would just rather have the sure thing now. In a daily league like DG, the sporadic playing time isn’t that much of an issue, and good hitters generally find a spot eventually. I do like draft picks and prospects, but on Marshall’s team under it’s current construction, Winker helps his team significantly more this year than a pick, unless the pick is packaged for a player better than Winker, which surely in the outcomes. For Jordan, getting Winker greatly increases his OF depth at each spot, so it seems like a no brainer. Jordan outsourcing his picks is also a no brainer. You don’t even need a brain to make a good trade.

Happy New Year

Trade: TBD | Organized Chaos

TBD trades away
3B Bobby Dalbec
2020 3rd Round Pick

Organized Chaos trades away
SP Matthew Liberatore
2020 2nd Round Pick

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

Prospect for prospect trades are kinda fun.

Organized Chaos has a gaping hole at 3B and so maybe Bobby Dalbec gets called up this year and helps. OC also has a bunch of pitching prospects and pitching prospects are fickle, so who knows which, if any, will become something good. Meanwhile, TBD is flush with 3B because they were given stud cost controlled 3Bman Matt Chapman for a slapdick prospect that will hopefully one day be as good as Matt Chapman already is but in the distant future, after the next MLB labor strike etc, and also they have Kris Bryant, Yuli Gurriel, and Eduardo Escobar on their 3B depth chart. TBD is truly a yearly 3Bman powerhouse. Great job, Josh. Basically Dalbec was totally superfluous so hey, might as well add a Rays pitcher.

Yeah, this is a fair trade. My favorite part is the pick swap. Eight picks was apparently the difference between Dalbec and Matt Liberatore and damn it, TBD just wasn’t doing this deal unless they moved up. They stole a move right out of Marshall Law’s playbook and executed it to perfection. I respect it.

I like this trade for both teams. Seems fair and fine and good. And as always, the destination doesn’t even matter. It’s about the experience. The thrill of the negotiation. Metaphorically it’s like fishing. The thrill of the fight is more exciting and fun than the actual catch. But to have that excitement it takes the fish and the angler to be active participants. Reeling in a fish that isn’t doing much isn’t that rewarding. That’s my big takeaway from this trade.

Trade: Marshall Law | Capital City Income

Marshall Law trades away
Aaron Bracho
Yusniel Diaz
Howie Kendrick $7

Crapital Shitty Income trades away
Kyle Hendricks $39

 

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

Another Seems Fine‚ĄĘÔłŹ trade.¬† Marshall is clearly using prospects to compete in 2020 and cashing in for Kyle Hendricks without dealing anyone too elite seems smart. Despite his lack of strikeouts, Hendricks is always someone who gets a lot of efficient innings which becomes important as we switch over to IP from starts.¬† Hendricks also becomes a no doubt starter for Marshall Law each week, with his rotation having the likes of McCullers, Kopech, and Fried, some stability was certainly needed and probably still some to be desired.

Bailey purchased Hendricks for Joc Pederson, Brock Burke, Isan Diaz, and Cody Bolton near the deadline and then used him and turned him into this. It was a nice rental and tenure for former CCI legend Kyle Hendricks. The return is pretty close to what he paid for him, so that’s a win right there. He borrowed and used an asset at basically no interest. Which is a segue to my next point and nobody he got in return was particularly interesting. Both Diaz and Bracho make CCI’s farm considerably better than what it was, so kudos. With 30 roster spots for minor leaguers and moving to 35, you need guys, and these are certainly guys.¬† As for Howie Kendrick, it was no secret to the league that he wanted to acquire him, so congrats to that. Kendrick was a monster in limited PAs last year, but if someone signs him to be a starter and his underlying skills stay in tact he’s a pretty valuable 1b/2b/3b option. On the flip side he is older and has almost never performed that well for a full season

Makes sense for both teams!

Jordan’s take

I got to see some of Aaron Bracho down in Lake County to close this season. The bat speed looks alright, but I question his pitch selection.¬† These sorts of things tend to work themselves out in the long run, but he’s really going to have to adjust his torque if he wants to get to his full 15 HR upside.

Keith’s take

I knew Hendricks was on the block, but I didn’t think he’d be given away for free.

Fern’s take

Bailey got a bundle of players and the auction got weaker. Weird.

Elton’s take

Bailey trades for another 1bman.  Typical. He still has a lot of $ to shed.

HADDY’s take

It’s November.

DAN’S take

I don’t make trades, but if I made a trade, it would be a championship move because a champion was making it.

TBD’S take

I would have offered more -Josh

I would have offered less -Joe

BAILEY’S take

I would have never traded away Kyle Hendricks if I knew everyone would review this trade.

 

 

Trade: JobuNeedsARefill | The Process

The Process trades away
RF Nick Markakis ($6)

JobuNeedsARefill trades away
SP Danny Salazar ($11)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

This is the prototypical “seems fine” trade.

Jobu adds a cheap bench hitter at the expense of a broken pitcher that he was probably going to cut anyway. Meanwhile, The Process punts a cheap bench hitter that he was probably going to cut for the right to hold onto a free agent pitcher that might sign somewhere interesting and show signs of health. It wouldn’t surprise me if both players end up at auction come March, but for now, this just seems like two teams moving on from guys they definitely don’t want to keep for guys that maybe, possibly, depending how the rest of the offseason goes, could be kept.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

Some people would say “Get a life, and do some community service” rather than waste your time on a meaningless trade like this. I am not one of those people. Life is precious, but also life expectancy is almost 80 years in the United States. Thats a lot of time. You need stuff to fill in the gaps. Talking about Markakis for Danny Salazar for 5 minutes? That’s the real trade here.¬† Was the time spent hashing this trade worth it in the grand spectrum of one’s lifetime? Is this review worth that time?¬† These are the true difficult questions we need to ask ourselves, and sometimes the answers are difficult.

Ultimately, I like this trade for BOTH teams because they spent some time together, talked some baseball, and exchanged ideas to possibly (even though extremely unlikely) improve their Dynasty Grinder franchises for 2020.  Good on you guys.