Trade: TBD | Organized Chaos

TBD trades away
3B Bobby Dalbec
2020 3rd Round Pick

Organized Chaos trades away
SP Matthew Liberatore
2020 2nd Round Pick

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

Prospect for prospect trades are kinda fun.

Organized Chaos has a gaping hole at 3B and so maybe Bobby Dalbec gets called up this year and helps. OC also has a bunch of pitching prospects and pitching prospects are fickle, so who knows which, if any, will become something good. Meanwhile, TBD is flush with 3B because they were given stud cost controlled 3Bman Matt Chapman for a slapdick prospect that will hopefully one day be as good as Matt Chapman already is but in the distant future, after the next MLB labor strike etc, and also they have Kris Bryant, Yuli Gurriel, and Eduardo Escobar on their 3B depth chart. TBD is truly a yearly 3Bman powerhouse. Great job, Josh. Basically Dalbec was totally superfluous so hey, might as well add a Rays pitcher.

Yeah, this is a fair trade. My favorite part is the pick swap. Eight picks was apparently the difference between Dalbec and Matt Liberatore and damn it, TBD just wasn’t doing this deal unless they moved up. They stole a move right out of Marshall Law’s playbook and executed it to perfection. I respect it.

I like this trade for both teams. Seems fair and fine and good. And as always, the destination doesn’t even matter. It’s about the experience. The thrill of the negotiation. Metaphorically it’s like fishing. The thrill of the fight is more exciting and fun than the actual catch. But to have that excitement it takes the fish and the angler to be active participants. Reeling in a fish that isn’t doing much isn’t that rewarding. That’s my big takeaway from this trade.

Trade: JobuNeedsARefill | The Process

The Process trades away
RF Nick Markakis ($6)

JobuNeedsARefill trades away
SP Danny Salazar ($11)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

This is the prototypical “seems fine” trade.

Jobu adds a cheap bench hitter at the expense of a broken pitcher that he was probably going to cut anyway. Meanwhile, The Process punts a cheap bench hitter that he was probably going to cut for the right to hold onto a free agent pitcher that might sign somewhere interesting and show signs of health. It wouldn’t surprise me if both players end up at auction come March, but for now, this just seems like two teams moving on from guys they definitely don’t want to keep for guys that maybe, possibly, depending how the rest of the offseason goes, could be kept.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

Some people would say “Get a life, and do some community service” rather than waste your time on a meaningless trade like this. I am not one of those people. Life is precious, but also life expectancy is almost 80 years in the United States. Thats a lot of time. You need stuff to fill in the gaps. Talking about Markakis for Danny Salazar for 5 minutes? That’s the real trade here.¬† Was the time spent hashing this trade worth it in the grand spectrum of one’s lifetime? Is this review worth that time?¬† These are the true difficult questions we need to ask ourselves, and sometimes the answers are difficult.

Ultimately, I like this trade for BOTH teams because they spent some time together, talked some baseball, and exchanged ideas to possibly (even though extremely unlikely) improve their Dynasty Grinder franchises for 2020.  Good on you guys.

Trade: TBD | Jobu Needs a Refill

TBD trades away
3B Gio Urshela ($7)
Two 2020 4th Round Picks

JobuNeedsARefill trades away
SS Alexander Vargas (prospect)
Two 2020 2nd Round Picks

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

I like this deal for Jobu, adding a cheap 3Bman that put up a .369 wOBA last year. Honestly, I’m not a big Gio Urshela believer. He ran a high BABIP, doesn’t walk much, and probably got a lot of his power from the bouncy ball that may or may not return in 2020. I’m also not sure about his playing time. Having said all that, he’s undeniably a 28-year-old that costs a measly $7 and put up 1.548 points per plate appearance last year. That is all very good and I think you’re better off betting on real, actual production that just happened than on future picks. It’s still crazy to me that the league collectively looks at players that just did what Urshela did, then at his cost, and still seem to prefer fringe prospects that won’t debut for several years. So good on Jobu for taking the gamble that 2019 was legit. If it’s not, oh well, he’s out three prospects that won’t debut until sometime after MLB’s labor strike anyway.

For TBD, they seemingly don’t believe in Urshela either and will happily take a decent Yankee prospect and more picks to either strengthen one of the best farms in the league or flip whoever they draft to Senior Squids or Trumpa Loompas for whoever their best player is in May. It’s smart and I respect it. Good job, Josh.

The biggest loser in this trade is me, because four picks being moved means I had to update the draft sheet four times. I hated every second of it.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

After reading Bailey’s review I have some thoughts. 1) Does anyone want to make a trade with just draft picks involved and 2) Where were you when Gio Urshella was on the block?

I prefer the picks here, because I don’t really believe in Urshella as more than just an average 3bman.¬† Personally, I think one 2nd rounder should have been able to get it done.¬† That being said, taking Urshella seems like a fine gamble for Jobu to make here.¬† I think the Yankees will start him at 3b and if he hits anything close to like he did last year, he will stay, I’d lean he doesn’t.¬† Either way, ultimately Seems Fine‚ĄĘÔłŹ.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Organized Chaos

Organized Chaos trades away

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • SS Carlos Correa ($89)
  • SP Ian Anderson (prospect)
  • 2020 2nd Round Pick

Jordan’s Thoughts

I think most people look at trades and shake out roughly how they value players going each direction. Freddie Freeman is a great player at a valuable price. Carlos Correa is arguably a better player, at a more expensive price, however he spent half of this year hurt and he seems to be far from reliable.

Dansby Swanson is 25 years old now and just finished his 3rd straight professional season as a below average hitter. Dansby shows flashes of his capability as a hitter. But, I’m not as high on his future as some others are. If Swanson wasn’t a first overall draft pick, I’m certain people would have moved on from his status already.

Where do you land on Ian Anderson? As someone who’s traded him before. You kind of hate to lose the potential he brings. But, you know its fleeting. I think its way too early to truly call out a winner here for either side. I think given the contexts of each of the teams. I slightly prefer betting on Correa. That’s a gamble at best.

I guess at the end of the day I would have considered Freddie Freeman pretty much untradeable. He’s such a sturdy player to build around. Correa can be better. Ian Anderson might legendary. Fun trade!

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

So where Hustle Loyalty Respect is seemingly giving points away by downgrading from Carlos Correa to Dansby Swanson, he’s also more than making up for that by going to Freddie Freeman from… uh, Garrett Cooper… as his 1Bman. To me, the gap between Correa and Swanson is palatable, especially when you bake in injury histories. The gap between Freeman and Cooper is enormous. Also HLR is saving $13, which is not quite nothing but mostly nothing. It also cost a pretty good pitching prospect and a 2nd round pick, so there’s that. I do know that lots of people have wanted Ian Anderson in trade in the last year or so. Ditto for Freeman. One interesting angle: HLR has had Correa on the trade block forever and he never got moved. Freeman, as best I can remember, has been untouchable. So I think out of Freeman and Correa, Freeman’s been the more coveted asset leaguewide, probably.

Anyway, ballparking it, I’d guess this is something like a 300-400 uptick in 2020 projected points for HLR. Possibly more. It’s a pretty big short-term win, I think. My numbers could also be way off because I did no actual math, yay!

For Organized Chaos, it’s weird in the sense that it subtracts that same amount of points and brings on a super high salary and I’m not totally sure why. If you’re giving up that many points, it signals you’re punting in 2020, but if you’re punting in 2020, Correa’s a weird guy to look to build around for 2021 just based on salary and how the league tends to view high salaries. He’s a great player if he’s giving you 7 points a game at $100 or whatever to keep, fine. My concern is that he’s played in just one full season and only played in 75 this year. Just strikes me as a big investment of talent and salary poured into a player that might not actually be reliable.

My guess would be that Chaos feels like sliding Pete Alonso from UT to 1B and then filling SS with Correa is his best bet moving forward in terms of filling his lineup and having flexibility. I’d still rather have the Freeman/Swanson side here and I don’t honestly think it’s too close, salaries and all that hoopla considered. I wonder what Chaos does from here. I feel like he needs to go add more pieces now.

Trade: TBD | The Process

TBD trades away

The Process trades away

  • 1B Christian Walker ($7)
  • 2B/SS Terrin Vavra

    BAILEY’S (TOXIC?!) THOUGHTS

    Okay, up front, let me say that I completely understand the following: TBD is way over the salary cap and cuts need to be made or discounts need to be taken in trade; Anthony Rizzo is super expensive; Christian Walker is super cheap and only posted 168.1 fewer points than Rizzo which, given salaries, makes Walker a super attractive value alternative; Terrin Vavra has sweet, sweet cost control. This trade based on all of these facts is fine. This is fine. IT IS FINE, GUYS.

But like… this is all you get for Anthony Rizzo? Dude has had over 1,000 points in all but one season (he had 972 in 2018) since 2014 (so his success is juiced baseball-proof) and he fetches… a cheaper, lesser 1Bman and a not even top-200 prospect at this moment in time? I know who Terrin Vavra is, I get that he’s a prospect that could be a monster a year from now, whatever. This could also be the last time you ever seeBut today he’s… not been on any offseason list I’ve seen. I also get that he’s the secondary piece here but I still feel uncomfortable with seeing a perennial 1,000 point player traded for only two pieces, one of which is a 22-year-old in A-ball that the industry isn’t counting among the league’s 200 best at this moment in time.

In 2019, 56 players scored 1,000 points. In 2018, that number was 42. So to be clear, a guy not even counted among the top 150 or 200 prospects (and uh, Walker) is worth one of the top 40-50 actual scorers in the game, because salary. Fun, fun stuff.

This reeks of TBD rushing to shed budget space and hopping on the first players they liked offered up, which sadly is maybe just where we are as a league now. Maybe they love Walker, maybe they love Vavra. That’s fine. I like both guys too, although I specifically remember Organized Chaos relentlessly offering Walker to me — and everyone else — for weeks straight until finally, mercifully, Ferns accepted one of those deals. Which is funny in retrospect. Because now suddenly he’s super valuable? Anyway…

There are five or six teams with like $250 (of not real money, to be clear) to spend and half those teams haven’t really even checked in yet. Did they know Rizzo was available? Were they interested? Dear god, tell me those teams didn’t say they had no interest in a 1,000 point player and instead want to just wallow in the standings another year bEcAuSe SaLaRy aNd VaLuE (this is totally what happened). And actually, the “I don’t want them, you’re over cap and need to cut so I’ll wait for auction” is a defensible stance for those teams, except players like that never hit auction. They’re given away in trades like these. So you really can’t afford to just shun big time points scorers because of their salary or you’ll simply never have one and if you’re not trying to amass points, why are you here?

It’s a fine DG 2019 trade, it really is. Rizzo’s been hit by so many pitches, who knows, maybe the cliff finds him this year and Walker outscores him. I don’t think that’d change my point. It just, again, doesn’t feel like a “fantasy baseball trade” to me. I recently traded a pointless 5th round draft pick for Clayton Kershaw. Does that not strike anyone as symptomatic? This isn’t MLB where you’re trading millions of real dollars and contractual seasons. It’s just kinda like, sometimes, I don’t know what game we’re actually playing. The trade is fine given all the context, and maybe I’m dumb for trying to re-frame the context, I just feel like the context is unhealthy at this point.

 

Hustle’s TOXIC $.02

Jeeze, those sound like the words of a man whose team is about to lose the World Series. Bailey, please call me tonight if you need to talk. As a veteran fan of a team who just lost BACK TO BACK WORLD SERIES OF THE WORLD, I know that feel.

Anyway this trade…. SEEMS FINE TM. I agree that some of these teams with $200 or so budget not jumping on the Rizzo train is one of the more concerning aspects of this trade.¬† TBD was way over budget and chose who¬† they wanted to cut, and got a useful 1b and a prospect that they something in. Seems fine rather than cutting him for nothing. Seems way better than a 5th rounder for Kershaw.¬† Anyway, I also talked to Josh and he says he did shop Rizzo around to other teams. TBD doesn’t strike me as the team to not do their due diligence, so I believe that this was probably their best deal or close to it.

After years of driving a tank in Dynasty Grinders, Ferns has made a 2017 Baileyesque move and bought an expensive “older” player to finally compete. There’s a post somewhere where Bailey actually wrote/bragged about how he went from Tanker to Champion. Ferns certainly has the roster to compete and that’s his plan. But with only tank driving on his DG resume, is he suited for a role as a competitor in this league? Trades like this tend to say so.

These types of trades are bound to happen in a league that mimics a lot of how MLB operates. Gerrit Cole got traded for a terrible prospect haul by the Pirates, so did JD Martinez, oh wait that was another league, in MLB JD Martinez was literally traded for nothing/Dawell Lugo.¬† We play in a salary cap league, and sometimes you have a very good team like TBD does, and have to cut cap. They did that. I also don’t think Ferns paid nothing for this either, after greed he’s nearly going to pay 20% of his budget on last years 7th best 1bman. Ferns also gave away a decent 1b in Walker and an OK prospect. I guess I just don’t see this as a free acquisition.

Good trade for both teams guys!

Trade: Marshall Law | Organized Chaos

Marshall Law trades away

  • SS Nico Hoerner ($0 prospect)
  • 2022 4th Round Pick

Organized Chaos trades away

  • 2B Cavan Biggio ($1 cost controlled)
  • 2021 3rd Round Pick

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

Let’s get to the exciting part of this trade, the draft picks. I will say that this is the sort of trade that if you need a slightly better shitpick in a different year to make it “work” for you, then you shouldn’t do it.¬† Conversely if someone is asking you for a slightly better shitpick in a 1:1 trade, you should probably tell them no, unless you just love the trade and want it to happen right away.

This trade seems fine to me.¬† Biggio is in the majors and scoring points right now, so I think preferring him makes the most logical sense, which is why the draft pick confuses me here. That being said, Biggio also has strikeout issues and isn’t a lock to produce at the same level he did.¬† Nico Hoerner is a few years younger has decent enough upside to perhaps be even better than Biggio.¬† Added bonus, Hoerner was good enough to debut already and maintain his $0 cost control status. Still though, I’d prefer Biggio here, but I don’t feel so great about his future that I think risking him for a prospect I like more seems crazy.¬† I don’t know if Hoerner would be that guy for me, but if he is for Swinson I get it.

Prospects are fun.¬† Elton once ranked all the farms in Dynasty Grinders a few years ago and rated mine the best, and in that moment, I felt pretty good. Thank you Elton.¬† Even though Bailey surely has a stronger “not caring about prospects” stance than I do, I simply refuse to hate on someone believing in the abilities of a player that they view as potentially SPECIAL.

Trade: Marshall Law | TBD

Marshall Law trades away

  • 2B/3B Ty France ($7)

TBD trades away

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

I once spent an entire offseason sending Greg Bird offers to Ferns before one got accepted and I’m pretty sure we both lost that deal.¬† Anyway, I much rather have Ty France. He had arguably the best AAA season out of anyone in 2019, he batted nearly 400 in 348 PAs. Of course some of that was the ball and environment, but point still stands, that he was arguably the best, and he’s at an age where a breakout doesn’t seem crazy.¬† So naturally, I like the TBD side here.¬† The position eligibilities are just a bonus.

Greg Bird is playing in the Dominican Winter League or something. Will he get non tendered by the Yankees? Will he be a bench bat?¬† I like the idea of locking up both Yankees 1b by Marshall to have “the guy”, but I think there’s a chance Greg Bird isn’t even the backup option. I’d argue the Yankees would sign someone before that sadly.¬† Maybe Greg Bird will rebound¬† in a new venue or maybe Luke Voit gets hurt and it’s Bird Time in the Big Apple again.¬† I’m pretty comfortable saying I think Ty France scores more fantasy points than Greg Bird in 2020, and at the same price and better eligibility, one side is better for me here.

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

Oh man, is there still Greg Bird hype/hope in 2019. Amazing.

Trade: The Process | The Foundation

The Foundation trades away

The Process trades away

  • 2B/LF Shed Long ($0)

BAILEY’s Thoughts

The Foundation lost Andrew McCutchen fairly early last season to injury and still, against all odds and logic, made the playoffs. So up against budget constraints this year, he seems like an okay guy to just chalk up as unnecessary and punt. And that’s what this is. A punt trade. Cutch got dumped off for a cheap, fringe prospect that should get lots of PAs next year as the Mariners continue their sink to the bottom. Shed Long is likely a bench hitter in this league without the hassle of throwing a dart at Neil Walker or Freddy Galvis at auction. McCutchen is undervalued because of age and salary, so as we often see, this isn’t a fair fantasy baseball trade (McCutchen was pacing for his third consecutive 900+ point season and fetched a fringe top-200 fantasy prospect, yay) so much as the shuffling around of fictitious units of “salary.”

For The Process, this has to be the blueprint for 2020+, right? If you tank for years to amass cheap assets and don’t eventually supplement those guys with reliable points-scorers like Cutch (bankable veteran on a high salary), then it’s not much of a process, is it? It’s just… trying to have a cheap team to no real end. So I like this for The Process. If you’ve got $200-$250 of budget room open and aren’t scouring teams for hand-outs like this, you’re basically waving the white flag already. If Cutch is healthy, he’ll be good and make this team better. He’ll also probably be $60 or so after greed but, again, who cares? You’re paying these player salaries in pretend currency and they’re all one-year deals (or not even that; if The Process struggles, he can pretty easily flip Cutch in-season for something comparable or probably better than Shed Long, right?). Ultimately the name of the game is scoring the most fantasy points (ūü§Į) and Cutch, if fully healthy, is fairly assured of getting you 900 or more of them. To put that in perspective, with the juiciest of juiced balls in 2019, there were still only 53 hitters with 900+ points.

Good trade for both teams, especially The Process for trying to win now.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

Bailey wrote a novel about this before I could get a chance to get my bearings, but trade ultimately Seems Fine (TM).¬† I guess I like Shed Long a bit more than Bailey, and if he continues to lead off, it wouldn’t be surprising if he had a better season than McCutchen.¬† I like McCutchen to score more and easily consider him a better player, but at a $54 price difference, one of these two pieces is obviously a better value. That being said, both teams did what they needed to do, Jordan cut budget for a lesser player with value upside and Ferns added some stability to his team.¬† I think it’s a buyer’s market right now, and a lot of teams haven’t been capitalizing on it yet.¬† Welcome to the offseason Ferns and Jordan!

Trade: Marshall Law | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Marshall Law trades away

  • 3B Nolan Jones

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • 1B Luke Voit ($9)

BAILEY’s Thoughts

This one seems alright to me.

Marshall Law needed a 1Bman and has a bunch of prospect bullets collecting dust, so he fired one off to add someone that will actually score points. Voit’s been a great hitter for the Yankees and he’s cheap to keep at $9, but there are some concerns. The Yankees traded for Edwin Encarnacion (who is a pending free agent) and then left Voit off their ALCS roster, though that may have been injury related. They also always seem to be in the rumor mill for 1Bman help. I have some slight concerns about playing time. If Voit’s a part time player, he’s still valuable given his skills and price, but that value comes down a bit.

Nolan Jones is a prospect I really like but there are concerns with him too. Can he hit for power? Can he show more aggressiveness and cut down on the strikeouts? Who knows? Personally, I’d rather have him than Voit, but I generally just think it’s fairly easy to find suitable 1Bman production and happen to like this one prospect. In a league where Austin Riley, a semi-comparable 3Bman prospect to Jones, was inexplicably traded for Mookie Betts, at least this Jones-for-Voit swap seems somewhat in line with the prospect’s value. If it were a similar but different prospect than Jones here, I might just prefer the Voit side.

In closing, congrats to Marshall Law for pushing a chip and making a concerted effort to compete in 2020. Also congrats to Hustle Loyalty Respect on improving probably the strongest farm in DG without having to tank multiple seasons to do it. Loaded, more than loaded………………………. If you’re looking to trade for prospects HLR is the place to go. Beware HLR is a hustler and values his prospects and in a few years his team is going to be killing it. Hustle is going to win many championships if you believe in building from the bottom up. Truly inspiring stuff here.

Trade: Organized Chaos | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Organized Chaos trades away

  • 2B/SS/CF Garrett Hampson ($0)

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • 3B Colton Welker (prospect)

BAILEY’s Thoughts

Overall this seems okay. If you were looking at a prospect list, these guys are probably close to one another on it. Especially if its tailored to our league, since Hampson would otherwise get a bump in leagues where SBs are worth as much as HR.

Still, I prefer the HLR side getting Hampson. He closed out September/October with a .378 wOBA in the actual major leagues (points now > points in 2021) and at three premium positions while Welker was just okay in AA. I think Welker may even be a 1B now. He’s not a 3B in Colorado with Nolan Arenado there, that’s for sure.

So if the prospects are basically a coin flip, give me the one that’s going to score points sooner and offer more versatility to my team.

LEAVITT’s Thoughts

Wow I like this trade for Hustle. I wish I had seen Hampson on the trade block I would have inquired. Multiple positions (the good ones too). Cost controlled and had good end to the season.

KYLE’s Thoughts

Agreed.

HUSTLE’s Thoughts

He’s on the trade block right now¬† if either of you are interested