Trade: Preseason Double Stuffs | We Talk Fantasy Sports

Preseason Double Stuffs send: 2B DJ LeMahieu ($15)
WTFS send: 2B Rougned Odor ($29)

Andrew’s Thoughts: I’m not a Rougned Odor fan at all really. His OBP last year was a crummy .296 and it’s down to .260 last year. He never walks. Basically, unless he hits a home run, he’s a zero for your team. He did hit 33 last year and has 12 so far this year, which is cool, but everyone is a home run hitter now.

To that end, LeMahieu only hit 11 home runs all of last year. And that’s playing half his games at Coors. So Odor’s power output from this season, in which he’s been a big disappointment, is better than LeMahieu’s last year, in his career season. DJ’s older and he’s boring, but his floor is pretty high.

If the costs were the same, sure, trade the boring safe guy for the flashy recent prospect with “upside,” especially if you’re retooling. I get that. In this case, I don’t really get paying an extra $14 for the riskier guy, particularly when, without walks and getting on-base, the upside doesn’t seem all that high. And LeMahieu isn’t 29 yet, so it’s not like he’s some old veteran that you need to cash out on now. But I guess if Odor suddenly decides to walk 8% of the time and stops hitting easy infield flies, there’s room for growth and the power will still be there. I just don’t feel very excited about keeping a $31 (minimum) Odor into 2018.

I like it for WTFS most, who have now freed up $14 for 2018. That money will assuredly help subsidize all Byron Buxton‘s -3 point days on their bench for another year.

Hustle’s Thoughts:

I too like this better for WTFS. LeMahieu (not an actual DJ) was the better fantasy option this year and last and is half the price. The massive power difference between Odor and LeMahieu is washed away by the walk and strikeout rates.  Unless Odor shows significant improvement in those areas, I don’t see this trade working out for Ferns.

That being said Odor is only 23 and 5 years to LeMahieu’s junior and certainly has time to improve and with the power has monster potential.

 

 

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | We Talk Fantasy Sports

HLR sends: 1B/RF Carlos Santana ($29), 2018 3rd Round Pick
WTFS sends: C Zack Collins (minors), 2018 1st Round Pick

Andrew’s Thoughts: I like this deal a good bit for WTFS, who are 14th in hitting points and need fire power as they fight toward a playoff spot. The CJ Cron experiment has been a disaster. It has left them a big void at both 1B and their UT spaces. Santana is affordable and offers a nice, safe floor. Consider Santana the anti-Byron Buxton, if you will. The Twins’ former #3 prospect behind Jose Berrios and Max Kepler is, by contrast to Santana, expensive and offers a safe floor only in the sense that the word “floor” could function as a synonym of the term “rock bottom.” It is safe in that it can’t possibly get any worse. But I digress…

I almost took Zack Collins third overall in our draft on the chance he retains that catcher eligibility, but meh, I didn’t. Point is, I find him interesting. I think he’s a better fantasy prospect than real life prospect. And the first round pick is a nice bonus. In this case, Hustle just didn’t really need Santana, I guess, so opted instead to take on some prospect value. That’s fine. He can flip these pieces in two or three weeks if necessary, perhaps at a greater premium as more teams drop in the standings. But in a vacuum, I just don’t really find the two pieces compelling enough to fork over a sub-$30 Santana who is very keepable starting at $31 next season. He’s got a lot of 1B’s, yeah, but Santana can plug in at RF too and fill either UT spot. I’m usually a sucker for depth (and fearful of injuries); I’d rather have too many good players and occasionally leave the better guy on the bench than to have too thin a roster. And by adding prospects, it’s not like dealing from depth to improve a weakness elsewhere.

Of course, if you look at this trade in conjunction with Hustle’s other trade, from his perspective, he swapped out Santana for a younger, cheaper Myers, and swapped out Ross and De Leon (essentially prospects) for two more prospects in the form of a first round pick and Collins. You could easily build your case that, as prospects go, Collins is more valuable than De Leon heads up. So while I think HLR “lost” (for lack of a better term) this trade, I think this one paired with the other one are a net gain for his situation.

Trade: Senior Squids | Hustle Loyalty Respect

HLR sends: SP Joe Ross ($16), SP Jose De Leon ($1), 2018 4th Round Pick
Senior Squids sends: 1B/RF Wil Myers $17)

Andrew’s thoughts: Joe Ross gets annihilited by left handed hitters (.408 wOBA!) and his value was very questionable a week ago before having that one awesome start against the Manny-less, Jones-less Orioles. His game log is weird. He’s either had great starts or disastrous starts this year. There’s been no in between. Jose De Leon is hurt or something, isn’t he?

Don’t get me wrong. I like Ross and De Leon well enough. I loved Ross in particular before the season started. But a year ago Wil Myers was the key piece to buying Bryce Harper. He’s young, cheap, and good. I mean, I guess downgrading at first from Myers to a platoon of Trey Mancini and Danny Valencia is fine in the short-term. It’s not a death blow. Mancini’s BABIP is elevated and 25% of his fly balls are going for homers. He just… doesn’t feel real to me yet. And if he’s not real, what happens when you’re relying on Valencia, who was dumped on waivers fairly recently, to hold down your 1B fort?

I don’t know. I guess it could work out either way. Myers doesn’t strike me as an untouchable, transcendent type guy, and the way hitters are exploding right now, it seems like you could find production similar to his much easier than you could find two wild card pitchers.

I guess that’s sort of my underlying feeling here too. In the last week, Squids has gone bonkers for pitching despite an offense that entered this week ranked 11th in the league. I’m not sure that in 2017 you can trust pitchers to carry the day anymore. Offense is the safety net now, and this move would in theory weaken an offense already struggling to stay afloat by going from Myers to two guys you’d probably rather see as back-ups. But who knows, I think Squids has some more moves in the pipeline, so we’ll see.

Trade: Long Ball to LF | Senior Squids

Long Ball to LF sends: SP Daniel Norris ($14)
Senior Squids sends: 2018 1st Round Pick

 

Andrew’s thoughts: Without any context, I’d rather have Daniel Norris than a generic first round pick. I inquired about Norris a few times, actually. The pick is just a prospect, which Norris was as recently as a couple years ago. He was Baseball America’s 18th-ranked prospect in 2014. By buying him now, you get the same type of prospect pedigree as you’d get in the draft, but with 200 innings of work under his belt. He will also score you points today; that pick will score you points way later.

But there’s context too.

Long Ball has a bunch of pitchers, several similar to Norris, so he was expendable. Meanwhile, if the season ended today, Squids would be in the bottom-4 bracket and likely have the strongest team there, meaning the best chance of winning that bracket and the top overall pick. Worst case, as of today, it’s the 4th overall pick. So you’re in effect trading a guy like Luis Robert, Hunter Greene, Royce Lewis, Brendan McKay, etc for Norris. Still, not too bad, particularly if you need the points now. But…

I feel like more could have been milked for a pick that currently projects high, or maybe a guy or two could’ve been paired with it to get an even better pitcher. Picks are coveted in this league and an as-of-today top-4 pick didn’t really even seem to be publicly shopped. The last time I looked a couple weeks back, a league average start was around 21 points. Norris is the 73rd overall SP in total points and is averaging 19.83 points a start, so slightly below average. So I also wonder if a second round pick doesn’t buy you a comparable thrower.

Hustle’s thoughts: I disagree with Andrew hereI personally rather have the pick, but not by much.  I’ve never been a Daniel Norris fan. He’s a pretty average pitcher overall and maybe slightly below in a fantasy context here.  He’s averaging 19 points a game here, which is a low end starter unless you expect him to pick it up (which is possible).

I get that a first round pick is years away from contributing, but currently Squids has a ticket to the 2018 Iosim Bowl so this was potentially moving the first overall pick.  Even in a weak draft, I’ll take the lotto ticket and either trade the pick closer to the draft for something better or improve the farm.

At 4-6 Squids definitely has a shot to get back in this and make playoffs, but I don’t think it’s going to be on the back of Daniel Norris. If it is, I’ll have to re-evaluate this. Daniel Norris as an above average pitcher at less than $20 to keep is a good asset.

 

 

Trade: TBD | Senior Squids

TBD sends: SP Brent Honeywell (minors)
Senior Squids sends: 3B Rafael Devers (minors)

Hustle’s thoughts: There was a time in the offseason when I predicted Joe would make a trade with Elton for a catcher.  Both of them privately told me they would never make a trade with each other.  Then a few months later TBD acquired a catcher from Squids.  Now they trade again.  Was the point of these first few sentences to gloat? Mostly.  

Moving on to the trade. If we were to redo our initial minor league auction with players who have yet to debut (like we did in early 2016), I would think both these guys would be late first round picks.  It’s rare to see a top prospect get traded for another.  Calling someone a winner and a loser here would be more foolish than most trades.  I think Devers is safer here. He is only 20 and mashing in AA to a 220 ISO and near 400 WOBA.  Squids made it known he’s looking to improve on pitching, and while he’s acquired one of the best near MLB ready arms, it’s far from a given Honeywell will produce out of the gate.  Most pitchers take a while to figure it out or get hurt. Honeywell’s upside is probably a #2, maybe an Ace, so I definitely see the appeal here, but both these guys could be a while from mattering if ever.  Squids also has Kyle Seager reasonably prices for a few years, so Honeywell’s upside gives him a chance to have a more balanced team.

Andrew’s thoughts: Oh, the rare prospect for prospect trade. And I think it’s a fair swap for both teams.

I personally would rather have Devers, just because he seems less risky somehow and all the scouts and lists like him more. But Honeywell’s good too, he’s likely going to debut sooner, and he’s a pitcher, so if you’re hunting for guys who throw baseballs, he’s a solid target as far as prospects go. This is one of those trades where if it’s uneven at all, the difference is something small like a late draft pick or an auction buck.

So yeah, nice, simple, even trade.

Trade: Team Hydra | Long Ball to LF

Team Hydra sends: SP Julio Teheran ($27)
Long Ball to LF sends: 1B/LF/CF Ian Desmond ($23)

Hustle’s thoughts: With Kluber and Price on the DL, I think you could argue Teheran is Hydra’s best pitcher. He’s been awful at home and very good on the road. I just feel like someone with Teheran’s track record, that he will get it together at some point and prove to be the top 30/35 SP that he is, which in this league, is incredible valuable.

Desmond has some nice eligibility (1B/lf/cf), and should average more than 5 per game. He’s playing in Coors and the Rockies paid him. That being said, the Rockies have a lot of hitters and a log jam might force him out of the lineup more than expected at the beginning of the year. I don’t have much against Desmond, but when your pitching is decimated, it’s going to be hard to get 20-30 point stars from a guy. A rotation led by Porcello, Karns, and Vargas is quite risky to say the least.

Andrew’s thoughts: Good, even trade.

I think Hydra probably tired of Teheran’s loose cannon approach to pitching, and he hasn’t had much time to pitch there, but he looks awful in his new Atlanta home park. Teheran has always been homer prone and struck me as a bit overrated, but he may have officially crossed into “broken” territory. His K’s are way down and walks are way up. I like Long Ball buying him here just because pitchers are so fickle that one small tweak could get him back on track, but it’s definitely a gamble.

Desmond, meanwhile, has been kind of meh in his first 20 games with Colorado. He started out great, but now has a meager .296 wOBA. Like Teheran, he’s flawed and risky. But unlike Teheran, he has a home park that will clearly do him favors. He also offers some versatility, as he can slot in at three different positions.

I like this as a challenge trade for both teams. Personally, I’d rather have Desmond, but it’s close.

Trade: Rocky Mtn Oysters | Preseason Double Stuffs

Rocky Mtn Oysters sends: SP Touki Toussaint (minors), SP Cody Sedlock (minors), 2020 1st Round Pick
Preseason Double Stuffs sends: SP Dylan Bundy ($9), RP Zach Britton ($12)

Hustle’s thoughts: I probably value first round picks a little bit more than most people, but even saying that, I like this trade for Dusty. The two pitchers Ferns are getting are a bit away and really aren’t too exciting for me. Maybe one is a diamond in a rough that Ferns knows something about that I don’t , but I see them combined as a 25% likelihood as putting together what Bundy has so far this season (and even that may be a high percentage). The first round pick is a nice piece to your team 2-3 years down the line if you make a good pick (which per the average fantasy player is probably well under 50%). I know Ferns didn’t have a 1st or 2nd rounder last year so maybe there is some desire to start making picks as this is the second high pick Ferns has acquired recently.

Still, this trade screams “I just want to get rid of Bundy”. He’s averaging almost 30 points per game and costs $9 and was once the top (or close to) pitching prospect in baseball. He’s probably not as good as he’s been so far, but he seems like a cheap starter you can have for a few years (with some upside). At least I believe Bundy was shopped and this was the best offer they could get.

The main problem for me with this trade is the 2 prospects acquired are somewhat borderline. If you’re going to tank, you need those prospect roster spots for top end guys you could aquire, locking yourself into Touki and Sedlock seems unwise. They are on the level of a deep guy who gets hot and starts getting some publicity who will be available on the wire. Edwin Rios (who Ferns dropped this morning) might not be that far off either guy he just acquired. If Ferns continues to make moves for the future he has less spots for minor leaguers or has to start releasing guys from previous hauls (like this one), making those previous trades less valuable.

Andrew’s thoughts: This is a weird one. I don’t trust Dylan Bundy at all despite the 29.11 points per game he’s scoring. He’s not striking guys out (6.09 K/9) and he had been suppressing homers at a crazy rate. His career HR/9 is 1.28, but he’s at 0.94 today. His career HR/FB rate is 11.2%, but it’s at 8% today. His 4.78 xFIP is way higher than his 3.92 FIP. I just see so much regression in this profile.

But, I mean…. 29.11 fantasy points per game. At some point, fantasy points are really what matters, right? Given that, I’d rather have Bundy for cheap ($11 next year is nothing) and just hope he hangs on. Toussaint and Sedlock are fine, but they also both have 40-ish IP at A+. They’re two years away? Three? And they’re pitchers, so that assumes they don’t hurt themselves at any point along that timeline.

And the first round pick is almost three years away from even being made. To me, the pick is more exciting as a future trade chip if the rest of the team can turn the corner. If the Double Stuffs can be competitive early next year, now that draft pick is another asset in play for a trade to improve.

I don’t fault the Stuffs for selling high on Bundy, but this to me isn’t high. Also, if they’re punting the year and rebuilding, they might have essentially clogged two minors spots with risky pitchers that aren’t close. We really need like 50 minor league spots so that you can acquire guys without being forced to dump comparable ones, and so that you don’t reach a threshold where roster spots prohibit improvement. Again, I don’t love Bundy, but he’s been good enough fantasy-wise and he’s cheap enough, that even a rebuilding team should want him.

Trade: The Wilfred Brimley Fightin’ Diabeetuses | Hustle Loyalty Respect

The Wilfred Brimley Fightin’ Diabeetuses send: SP Luis Perdomo ($1)
Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (minors), 2018 2nd Round Pick

Andrew’s thoughts: Seems alright for both teams. HLR can afford to punt a promising teenager with several years between him and his first MLB at-bat in exchange for a cheap, quality starting arm.

Perdomo gets to toss in a favorable park and league and his FIP and xFIP both look good, plus he’s striking out more hitters this year than last. His 0.32 HR/9 rate will probably regress (he was at 1.41 last year over 146.2 IP), but it’s 2017, so even a HR/9 around 1.00 is passable.

I like Tatis as a prospect, but our minors aren’t yet deep enough and the salary aspect makes me give priority to guys with closer ETAs. If you’re WBFD, it’s fine, because Perdomo likely isn’t carrying you out of the cellar anyway. But I prefer HLR’s return here.

Trade: Rocky Mtn Oysters | Preseason Double Stuffs

Rocky Mtn Oysters sends: 3B Ryon Healy ($5)
Preseason Double Stuffs sends: SP Matt Cain (FA)

Andrew’s thoughts: I don’t find either of these players super exciting, but I’d much rather have Healy because he’s only 25 and has a .355 wOBA over his first 403 MLB plate appearances. That’s quite good, though he’s probably more of a back-up than a guy you want starting. Also, his parents spelled “Ryan” wrong and I find that irksome.

Cain, on the other hand, was most recently a passable starting pitcher in like 2013. I guess you could use him as a streamer exclusively when he’s pitching at home, but he’s been awful there over the last few years. It’s not like we award points for getting Cy Young votes six seasons ago.

Like… Scott Feldman, who I picked up off waivers last week, has out-performed Cain’s FIP since 2013, when he had a 4.03 and Cain had a 3.93. So even then, it was close. So why trade Healy for Cain when you could just grab Feldman off waivers for free? Also, can I please trade Feldman now for a decent hitter? Please and thank you.

Trade: TBD | Hustle Loyalty Respect

TBD sends: SP Robert Gsellman ($5)
In Shorter Line 4 the Win sends: LF/RF Avisail Garcia ($3)

Andrew’s thoughts: Garcia currently has a .418 BABIP, so his numbers are likely to fall. I suppose the power could be real, but everyone hits for power these days.

Gsellman’s FIP/xFIP (4.86/4.06) have him not too far off line from a league average pitcher. I think as your SP5 or SP6, he’s an okay gamble that you can roll out in favorable match-ups. He’s also only 23 so… “upside.”

I’ll take the pitcher.