Trade: Senior Squids | Long Ball to LF

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Musgrove, Joe
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids)
Wright, Kyle
O’Neill, Tyler

Senior Squids trades away
Paxton, James

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

The nice thing I’ll say about this trade is that I do like it more than the last one.¬† Paxton is a more volatile asset than Gary Sanchez is, thus I think it’s a better piece to trade if you’re rebuilding/tanking.¬† Elton took my advice from the last review in trading Paxton. I still think it would be preferable to have made this trade rather than and instead of the last one.

That being said, I still think this isn’t a great trade, but it’s not awful.¬† It’s basically a downgrade from a near ace level pitcher in Paxton to whatever Musgrove is with a wild card shot on Wright or Oneil being something. If Oneill becomes a middle of the order bopper year in and year out and Musgrove is a top 30ish pitcher, then it probably works out ok for him. That still seems like a lot of risk of both those things happening rather than Paxton just staying good. Paxton could get hurt, but Musgrove is no stranger to injuries either.¬† Seems risky with not a ton of upside unless you think Paxton isn’t built to hold up for a few years or that Musgrove will become close to his tier of a player. Which I suppose is possible!

I still have trouble seeing how this puts Elton in a better position to beat the teams he made stronger in 2019 and beyond. Senior Squids finally has a top 10 farm, and their best course now is to let his prospects marinate and hopefully next year flip them for an elite asset like Gary Sanchez or James Paxton.¬†This trade reminds me a lot of the Pirates trading Gerit Cole, when they sought elite future assets and ended up with… Joe Musgrove.

For Long Ball, this seems like a no brainer move. Sure Paxton has injury risk, but so does Musgrove. Every trade has inherent risks, but this seems like a pretty safe bet. With a rotation of Nola, Paxton, and Greinke, the Long Balls look to be serious contenders now and in the future.

Andrew’s thoughts:¬†

James Paxton is a weird guy to value. He’s obviously very, very good, but he’s also constantly hurt. He’s never thrown more than 136 innings and I feel like if you’re buying him, you’re probably worried he won’t be available when it matters most (H2H playoff time). At the same time… he costs only $10, $12 minimum to keep, and that is effectively nothing. Even if he gets greeded up to $20, that’s peanuts for a player of his caliber. He could miss all of 2019 for whatever reason and still be cheap enough to keep into 2020. I guess what I’m saying is, he’s riskier than your average pitcher, but his price and ability outweigh a good majority of that risk. I agree with Hustle’s general sentiment that, for a rebuilding team, Paxton is the most obvious chip to move (and that he should’ve been traded first and instead of franchise piece Gary Sanchez).

On the other side, Joe Musgrove also appears to be an injury risk. He’s only pitched in four MLB games this year after battling injuries all winter and spring. I like Musgrove, but I’m a little shocked he’s the main piece in a deal for a Paxton-like stud. I’m having flashbacks to Lewis Brinson — in other words, a guy who pops up on the trade block sporadically for months, then is suddenly headlining a deal for a star. In this case, three of Musgrove’s four starts have been good, so I guess that’s enough to make him valuable.

In essence, Long Ball paid three prospects — O’Neill, Wright, and a pick — to upgrade Musgrove to Paxton. And I love it. He had to do it. He didn’t, in my opinion, touch any of his premium prospects to get this deal done (if I’m Squids and trading Paxton to Long Ball, I’m getting Juan Soto or Bo Bichette back or I’m shopping really hard elsewhere). Musgrove seems good, but Paxton is elite. To me, Tyler O’Neill is a depth piece in our league. The power will play, but his cost control clock has already started ticking and he’s on a team that doesn’t have room for him. Is he just a fourth outfielder? Kyle Wright ranked 24th on FanGraphs’ new prospect list, but I don’t know much about him. He’s a pitcher, and if I’m tanking this year and probably next as Squids appears to be doing, I’m just not pumped to do it all around pitchers.

Ultimately I can’t escape the feeling here that Squids decided Paxton had to go ASAP and just took whatever offer looked best. Yeah, Paxton’s risky, but given his performance and cost, literally every team should have shown interest. Paxton is more valuable to even a rebuilding team than almost any prospect or combo of 2-3 prospects. I’d love to know if any “rebuilding” teams inquired. I know Squids has taken some pleasure in trying to play the “top teams” against each other as he tears down, but the market for Paxton should’ve been vast and the return just seems underwhelming. Oh well. Paxton’s arm could melt off at any moment (he had forearm cramping during his last start!) and this deal could then look fantastic simply by virtue of getting something. There aren’t a lot of studs in the league for under $20, but Paxton’s one of them and injury history be damned, I feel like he should’ve fetched a Bichette, Soto, or some prospect of that ilk a tier or two below the Vlads and Acunas of the world. Kyle Wright feels very blah to me. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out and if injuries play a role in the narrative.

 

 

TRADE: Capital Citcy Income/ Team Hydra

Team Hydra trades away
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Team Hydra)
Lester, Jon $63

Capital City Income trades away
Godley, Zack $8
Gattis, Evan $11

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

I like this trade for both teams. The auction proved once again that most of the assets are overpriced and not that good, otherwise the players would have been kept.¬† $63 Jon Lester has proven to be one of the better auction purchased, which says a lot about a lot.¬† He’s a top 30ish pitcher pitching even better lately. He was keepable for close to that price, but Jordan decided to cut him.

At 3-7, Hydra has clearly thrown in the towel, not even Freddie Freeman is eligible for their lineup every day. Getting two keepable assets and betting against Lester being a keeper at that price seems reasonable. Hydra has no real catcher, and with Gattis turning the corner he’s a justifiable keep if he’s playing most days.¬† They will have the rest of the year to decide whether or not to keep Godley, but in all honesty, $10 on even an average pitcher isn’t awful. It’s clear Bailey had become increasingly frustrated with Godley’s consistency, and perhaps used his last start as a sell high of sorts. The short lived Godley Income era is now over.

Getting two major league assets for a guy you weren’t going to keep seems fine. If anything, Hydra has proven to be able to spend big chunks of money on players in auction and be successful about it, so maybe they find next year’s Lester who helps them place/win¬† or sell him off again. Lester was probably a better purchase than anyone I got in auction for instance.

I don’t love that they threw in a 2nd rounder, but relievers will be available later in the draft too.

 

 

Squids has himself a day

 

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Gordon, Dee

Senior Squids trades away
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids)

Bailey’s Take

This was a trade Squids just had to make. I really wouldn’t feel good about contending with Joe Panik as my only 2B. Dee Gordon is a little sketchy in our format because he offers no power, but neither does Panik. At least Dee gets on base pretty good and racks up steals, which aren’t really valuable but are better than nothing. Gordon always finishes among the top 2B scorers even if it isn’t always in game changing fashion. I wouldn’t be surprised if Panik gets dumped back to auction now.
Speaking of auction. Is Adam Jones kept at $39? I’m not sure. Gordon will be able to play CF too and while he won’t hit the homers Jones will, they’re roughly the same guy in our scoring when all is said and done.
Either way, this helps Squids at minimal cost. It gives him a relatively inexpensive, useful player that offers some options and flexibility. For LB, I assume this was a salary dump. So good for him too for turning a presumed cut into some future value. Maybe next year he can join the dark side and sell the pick for auction budget.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
Overall this trade was pretty fine for both teams. I like it slightly more for Long Ball here. Gordon, like Brinson, has to be one of the most traded players in Dynasty Grinders history ( Jesus Sucre and Brian Shaw not counted). I think Gordon was likely headed back to the auction, so getting a 2nd round pick is a good haul for a cut. For Squids, supplanting Paniks production seems like a good idea at this point, and Gordon is a decent option.¬† I think if he would have held out until auction he could have got comparable production at 2b, but maybe not.¬† It’s hard to fault him for wanting to be prepared at each position before the auction.
Night King’s Undead Army¬†to¬†Senior Squids
($8) Gregorius , Didi for  $15

Bailey’s Take

Dansby Swanson has been a pretty big disappointment. Didi seems like a good upgrade over him. For basically $15 and a pick, Squids has pretty nicely upgraded his middle infield today.
For Jordan, eh, I don’t know. Getting Corey Seager maybe have rendered Didi useless, but I would’ve wanted actual talent back. Prospects, a cheap major leaguer, whatever.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
So after an offseason of quite, Squids picked up Dee and Did in one afternoon. That’s 3 Ds. D-Von, get tables.
Anyway I like this trade for Squids more than the first. This reminds me of the Ferns deal with Bailey earlier offseason where he bought Mannea for 20.¬† Buying an $8 Didi for $15 is basically like paying $23 at auction for Didi, which I don’t think would be crazy if you didn’t have a SS. The upside is that squids only has to pay $10 for him next year, especially with¬† greed sponge Gary Sanchez on his roster. I don’t hate the trade for Jordan, I think it was a natural consequence of the Corey Seager deal which I did not like for Jordan. In fact, if Dejong does what he did last year, there’s no way Jordan is going to miss Didi at all.¬† $15 buys you a better need at auction, so I get it.

Trade: Night King’s Undead Army¬† | Capital City Income

Capital City Income trades away
Phillips, Brett $3 (cost controlled)
Ragans, Cole
Tucker, Cole

Night King’s Undead Army¬†trades away
Reddick, Josh $9

Hustle’s Toxic .$02

I’m not sure what I expected this week. No Football. The Royal Rumble isn’t until Sunday Night. One thing I certainly wasn’t prepared for was for Jordan to trade for 3 prospects.¬† I went back to the Squids Media publication to see where Jordan’s team was ranked, surely that must have triggered him. I was surprised Squids ranked Jordan’s farm #5 with Kyle Zimmer as a 2018 MLB impact prospect.¬† I don’t know what to think anymore.

Cole Ragans ETA is 2021, seems like a very un-Jordan like investment.¬† He has a pretty good strikeout upside with his repertoire, but has control issues and a long way away. Cole Tucker seems like a low power starting SS eventually. With an already stacked SS core of Didi, Segura, and Dejong… there doesn’t seem like a lot of need here. I guess Jordan likes these guys and are possibly trade chips down the line. I wouldn’t have put the Undead Army at #5 overall, but this trade certainly bolstered his system. I see these two pieces as throw ins to a Phillips for Reddick deal essentially. When I ask to trade¬† a prospect to Jordan he says “I’ve heard of this Vlad guy, how about him?” when he trades with others he demands Cole Tucker¬†¬Į\_(„ÉĄ)_/¬Į

For Bailey, getting a CF  eligible Reddick that he  feels more comfortable keeping at the price is a big win.  Reddick has been a very useful hitter vs RHP. Seems like a good useful boring piece that will generate some Income for the Income.

For Jordan, trading away Reddick really only leaves him with recently acquired Max Kepler for CF. Kepler is also only useful against RHP. Seems like combined one of Kepler or Reddick starts against a righty at least 6 days a week and the other becomes an option elsewhere in his lineup if they both have attractive RHP starts. By trading Reddick away, there’s a lot more pressure on Jordan in finding another CF hitter.¬† Phillips is a good get with some upside, but his path to playing time in 2018 seems very tenuous with Braun, Santana, Cain, and Yelich ahead of him. That being said, if he lives up to expectations and finds a starting role somewhere, he’s certainly capable of being Reddick or more and becomes a better long term option than Reddick could be at 31.

I think this trade is fine for both teams.¬† I’d like to think Jordan woke up this morning and pontificated the moves and process he’s employed over the last 2 years and decided that today he would grind a little differently.

Trade: TBD | Capital City Income

Capital City Income trades away
Lamet, Dinelson ($1 cost controlled)
Zimmerman, Ryan (5)

TBD trades away
Lamb, Jake ($9)
Roark, Tanner ($9)

 

 

 

 

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02:¬† This trade is pretty triggering for me because I traded the best two pieces in this trade. 1 week before the 2016 Season I traded TBD a $1 Lamb for a $2 Souza. 1 week after the 2017 Minor League Draft I traded CAP a prospect Dinelson Lamet for a 4th round pick in 2020 (can’t wait to make that pick btw).¬† In my defense I had too many prospects and because of green flag rules, I was going to drop Lamet. Now that we’ve talked about myself, let’s move on to less interesting matters.

CAP’s haul

I personally see Jake Lamb as the best asset of this trade. He had a bad second half last year (for the second year in a row), but I think Lamb was hampered by a hand injury. He seems like he has the safest floor ( and a pretty high one) of a guy Bailey can keep for multiple years, but let’s see how he does with the rumored humidor!¬† With Beltre as his primary 3b, Jake Lamb provides depth and future at the position for CAP.¬† ¬†Most importantly, Bailey finally has someone we can greed on his team

Tanner Roark? Probably the weakest part of this entire trade. I don’t really wanna look into Tanner Roark. He’s fine at $9 and Bailey follows the Nationals, so OK.¬† Maybe him and Lamet are a wash, that’s what he would hope for.

TBD’s Haul

Dinelson Lamet!¬† Lamet has the upside to be the best part of this trade if he turns into a consistent pitcher who can go late into games and keep up his k rate. He also has considerable downside as evidenced by his 5 walks per 9 in the second half. He’s a sexy name right now and has plenty of time to figure it out, but he’s still a bit of an unknown.

Ryan Zimmerman has always been an underrated hitter who couldn’t stay healthy. In 2017 he played more than he has in the last 4 years and exploded for 36 bombs.¬† I think it would be kind of ridiculous to expect a repeat (he faded pretty bad in the 2nd half), but he’s surely worth his price and TBD was looking for a 1b.¬† Lastly, one should probably question a Nationals fan trading away a National.

Conclusion:¬†I think think Bailey did a good job of selling high on guys coming off good season and buying low on 2 disappointing seasons.¬†Ultimately, I¬†think it really comes down to what Dinelson Lamet is in 2018 and beyond. If you’re a big fan of D.L.¬† you like this trade for TBD, if you’re not you like it for CAP.

These two teams are amongst the more successful teams in this league primarily through effort and paying attention. Other members of the league will create fake conversations in order to pretend to be strategic to justify inactivity.  Both these methods take effort and ultimately are examples of grinding ,but grinding differently.

 

 

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect| In Line for the win

Hustle Loyalty Respect to In Line 4 the Win
Allen, Logan

In Line 4 the Win to Hustle Loyalty Respect 
$1

Hustles Toxic $.02.:  Where to begin?  Neal called me out on slack for poor trade offers. I shaved $1 off my asking price and he accepted.

Logan Allen is a solid pitching prospect, top 10 in a stacked Padres system and could be up in 2019 if he continues to pitch well.

Prior to this trade IL4W had 15 prospects on his farm when we all have 20 spots (and expanding to 25). It really makes no sense to have less than 20 green flag players right now unless you recently traded down from 20.

IL4W’s farm improves because he added a¬† $0 guy to his team in an empty roster spot.

 

Trade: TBD | In Line for the Win

TBD to In Line 4 the Win
Reynolds, Mark

In Line 4 the Win to TBD 

$5

 

Bailey’s Championship Take

If Mark Reynolds resigns with Colorado, this might be an okay $5 ($10 total investment including player cost) gamble. Reynolds went over 850 points last year and is a cheap enough guy to plug in and allow IL4W to slide Anthony Rizzo to 2B. I doubt he tops 850 again even at Coors, but it’s not a bad risk if you want to leverage all your many budget bucks to improve, but not gash your funds completely before auction. But if Reynolds goes almost anywhere else, I feel like he’s likely not worth much at all, definitely not $10. He scored less than 600 points in 2016 and under 500 in 2015. At 1B, that won’t come close to cutting it. In order to really capitalize on Rizzo at 2B, you need a strong guy at 1B. Being stronger at 2B but weaker at 1B isn’t helpful. So I guess it really depends where Reynolds ends up. I would’ve probably shot for a more steady, less park factor dependent 1B myself. Or just waited until Reynolds signs to revisit this. I imagine TBD sells him for $5 at any point this offseason, regardless of where he signs.

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

Seems like a big win for TBD.¬† Mark Reynolds at $5 is probably a cut for TBD, especially if he’s not in Colorado.¬† ¬†Clearly IL4W wants to acquire a 1b so he can put Rizzo at 2b, but I struggle to see the wisdom in going out of your way to acquire Mark Reynolds pre auction.¬† ¬†Personally, I don’t think he’s guaranteed to find a starting job to start the season unless he falls to a team looking for an injury replacement. Even then, I don’t see him being worth $10 unless he re-signs with the Rockies and starts. Even if those 2 magical things happen and you hit your best case scenario, Reynolds isn’t a long term piece and won’t be someone you can sell off for much come July.¬† I do think a $10 Rockies starting Reynolds is perfectly reasonable¬† and would make IL4W better if properly deployed.

On a rebuilding team like IL4W, I’m not a fan of this move. On the other hand, when you have a ton of auction cash, potentially wasting $10 on one move wouldn’t¬† be¬† a significant loss.

Trade: Capital City Income | We Talk Fantasy Sports

Capital City Income trades away
Alzolay, Adbert

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
Diaz, Yusniel

 

 

 

A prospect for prospect trade? Always fun to review because you can say just about anything… and I’m going to just do that.

I can’t reveal Hustle Media’s prospect rankings to non subscribers, but I’m comfortable saying I had Diaz in the top 100 and Alzolay in the top 113. So I guess I prefer Diaz. That being said it’s pretty close and I don’t have a problem with personal preference here.

¬†Alzolay has a chance for more upside in this trade because in our scoring,¬† having a good pitcher is always going to be worth more than a good outfielder. If you’re high on Alzolay, getting him at the cost of an outfield prospect a couple years away is pretty good. The trade is also really good for WTFS if you look at the roster construction. Objectively speaking, pitching is a weak point for them right now. Having made starts in AA in 2017, it’s conceivable that Alzolay may make some starts in the bigs this season.¬† Even if you’re not confident on Alzolay, it might make sense to throw some darts on pitching prospects for WTFS.

Then there’s Diaz, he had a pretty decent showing in AA with a .397 WOBA and I feel like he’s starting to garner more hype after not lighting the world on fire as a teenager.¬† The Dodgers have a ton of OF prospect depth in their system, but I expect some trades to clear that out. If Diaz is good, he will find a spot to play.

The trade is fair and¬† it’s close, but the bat seems safer here…barely.

Trade: Long Ball to LF | TBD

 

TBD trades away
O’Neill, Tyler
2018 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Capital City Ironmen)

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
2018¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†3¬†(Who’s Your Haddy?)
Foltynewicz, Mike

Bailey’s Championship take

I think this is a toss up, matter of preference trade. Third and fourth round picks are fairly interchangeable, because that deep into a draft the prospect tiers are gigantic and all the players run together. Yeah, you’d rather pick sooner than later. TBD got the better pick, so hooray.
Foltynewicz, meanwhile, is a cheap pitcher with some upside. He’s super erratic though. But as a $5 spot starter, he could be of use. He’s in the NL East, so hey, just start him against the Marlins!
O’Neill, meanwhile, is one of those fringe prospect types with a lot of variance on lists. I don’t know a ton about him to be honest. My impression is he’s one of those low contact, power happy guys. But that’s what they said about Aaron Judge! He could be just a guy, of course. The balls are juiced, so everyone hits homers.
Again, team preference here. Foltynewicz is combustible. O’Neill’s a prospect with an iffy profile, so he’s risky. Pick your poison.”

 

 

Hustles Toxic $.02

First thing that stands out about this trade is that these two teams have the worst team names in the league. And that’s say something when we have a The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses.¬† It’s been over 2 years and Joe/Fito haven’t bothered to come up with a team name and/or somehow think TBD is acceptable.¬† For Long Ball, I actually like the team name, I’m just confused why “JohnnyWise” is in parentheses after.¬† As for best team names in the league I like Who’s your Haddy and In Line for the Win.

The picks involved in this trade are pretty meaningless. It’s nice to pick earlier, but they are just wildcards at this point.¬† I thought it was interesting that neither pick that was traded was their own.

As for Folty vs Tyler O’neil, it’s a pretty even trade. Long Ball certainly needs the hitting help more than TBD. I know Joe has coveted getting Folty for a while now, so congratulations are in order. I don’t think the price dropped off much despite a poor overall season for Folty (he did improve his k rate, but his command got worse)¬† ¬†The Braves have a lot of arms coming up from the minors, so he’s going to need to prove himself in his age 27 season. Tyler Oneill is a guy who is pretty blocked at the moment (Pham, Fowler, Bader, Grichuk, and Ozuna all in front of him).¬† Perhaps this is a reason Joe decided to move him.¬† Oneill has been touted as a future 25-30 home run hitter, and can probably get there if given the shot.¬† ¬†This trade doesn’t have a clear winner now, but I’ll lean with the major league talent.

Maybe it’s the holidays, but I’m¬† genuinely happy for both these teams because they got a guy they like. Merry Christmas.

Trade: Capital City Income | In Line for the Win

Capital City Income sends: RP: Cody Allen ($9)
In Line for the Win sends:  $2 2018 Auction Budget

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02: When I saw this trade go down via email notification, I wasn’t aware of the financials so I asked Bailey on slack and his response was a classic ” $2, assuming he read my note.” This is as good a time as any to remind people to read the notes in trade propsals.

Before I get down to #analysis, it should be noted this was a trade for $2.¬† It’s less than .5% of someone’s auction budget, so even if Neal changes his mind and doesn’t even keep Allen… no real harm was done. This is very obviously a minor trade.

For Bailey: Oh what a difference a year makes.¬† It was just last offseason when I was flooding everyone with offers of Adam Wainwright¬†¬†and Yordano Ventura (RIP) for minuscule budget amounts like this one. I was told by both commissioners via conversation and trade reviews that it made no sense to sell someone for so cheap. “You should just throw them back in to see if they go for more.” Fast forward a year later and Bailey has earned his first Hustle Merit Badge(TM). Congrats!¬† Bailey gets $2 for a guy he wasn’t going to keep and probably feels comfortable with someone else having for $9.¬† People keep handing money over to Bailey at the rate that he will somehow keep $500 worth of players and be in on Ohtani, not really but getting closer.

 

For Neal

 

Including the $11 he has invested in Allen for 2018 ($2 to Bailey and a $9 price), Neal also has Devenski ($9) and Jansen ($14). To keep all 3 would cost him $34.

Expensive relievers aren’t my thing and I don’t really know how to judge Allen’s worth in general for this league let alone with the new scoring system.¬† I personally rather not invest in relievers at the expense of starters or hitters, but I could see why Neal might be inclined to have 3 of the best relievers in the game…. lineup setting.

It was about a month ago when Dustin Pedroia came up in a slack conversation and I joked about how he wasn’t in Neal’s lineup very often, he assured me¬† he was.¬† I had to go look at the tape. Sure enough, despite being one of IL4W’s best hitters on a ppg basis, Dustin Pedroia sat on the bench for a staggering 25% of his PAs. In a daily baseball league, you’re just not giving yourself a chance if you’re not starting your best players.¬† By having 3 of the best relievers in the game, Neal will hopefully “set it and forget it” all year unless injured. Not having to deal with picking up¬† or playing matchups with relievers¬† is a huge time saver.

It’s going to cost him 6-7% of his budget to have the luxury of not dealing with relievers, but for some teams it may be worth it.

I also think having an elite bullpen raises some interesting possibilities if your season goes south.¬† If IL4W is out of it by the trade deadline, does a contending team who barely spent on a bullpen buy a whole bullpen from Neal? I don’t think it would be crazy. In real baseball we see a team sell their best reliever all the time, but it would be really exciting to see a team sell 3 elite relievers to one team.