Trade: Senior Squids | Capital City Income

 

Hill, Rich ($15)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Capital City Income)

Senior Squids trades away
Gattis, Evan ($9)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids

 

Hustle’s $.02

From a value standpoint. I think the trade is pretty even. Rich Hill clearly is the more risk reward player here and probably warrants the pick upgrade. This pick upgrade is for 2020 so it could be an upgrade of one pick or as many as 32. I’m going to guess in between.

For Bailey: I understand the appeal. He has some pitcher depth (after acquiring Happ/Vargas) and having a capable 2nd catcher is very useful in this league. Currently he has Martin as his guy, and that’s likely not to change on most nights. Catchers get hurt, and Gattis is a huge upgrade to anything he could get on the wire. It’s also useful for those days Martin just won’t play.  It was about 2.5 months ago when Bailey traded away a 3rd rounder (essentially), Chris Carter, and Grichuk for  Hill.  Grichuk has been worthless and won’t be kept and Chris Carter has been a sparingly useful 1b/UTIl (5 pph) on the last place team.  So he’s played musical chairs with some assets and ended up with a very nice backup catcher. If Rich Hill does get it going, this may look foolish with the current pitching landscape. I’d say on the surface this looks like Bailey selling high after one of Hill’s best starts, but it’s not like the sell-high netted too much.

Bailey’s Rating: /5 Sticks

 

For Elton: We’ll find out pretty soon how this deal goes, because Rich Hill is the only real factor here. I think he’s going to either be a very good-great pitcher averaging close to or over 30 ppg or he’s going to continue to implode and the Dodgers will give him less starts and perhaps put him in the pen.  He’s basically either a $30-40 pitcher or a $0 one. The Dodgers paid him, so he’ll get his chance, but there are some red flags in healthy, age, some diminished stuff, and the Dodgers have a plethora of options.

In a year where pitching is so difficult is the answer to just get more bullets or just strengthening your hitting and hope for the best on pitching? Squids is clearly doing the former.

The catcher isn’t so much a need for Squids because he has Zunino and Gary Sanchez. For me, this is a low risk “I’m going for it” deal.  At 5-7 Squids chances at playoffs are losing steam each week so he needs to do something now and pitching is his biggest need. If he thinks he can do it, then I really like this deal for him.  If he doesn’t make playoffs and Rich Hill is a pumpkin, then he loses a trade chip in Gattis, but hardly a significant one.

Squids Ratings Rating   / 5 Sticks

 

 

 

Trade: Team Hydra | Capital City Income

 

Team Hydra trades away
Vargas, Jason ($3)
Happ, J.A. ($5)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Ray, Corey
Travis, Devon ($11)

Hustle’s .02

When I went to take a piss at 5 in the morning I checked my phone and saw the email notification of this trade. With my senses barely there, I though this was a steal for Bailey.  Having had my breakfast, coffee, and shower…I pondered the trade some more.  I still think this is a good trade for Bailey, but more justified from Hydra’s stand point.

Firstly, I’m not a big Corey Ray fan. Moderate power and some above average speed which isn’t worth a lot in this format. In 2017 he’s striking out a ton with a .148 ISO in High A. If it wasn’t for him being the 5th pick last year (and a top 3 pick in our draft) he’d be completely off my radar.  He’s still a bit away, isn’t that exciting (to me), and plays a deep position where you’ll really need to produce to be a contributor. On the other side, he’s young and has the pedigree to improve and be an impact player.

Devon Travis at $13 next year?  This was famously a Dusty trade and  drop and I believe the biggest FAAB acquisition in league history (Otani aside). I think a healthy Devon Travis is worth 13 bucks, maybe a few more. So there’s value here if he manages to stay healthy which he never has. Hydra doesn’t have a 2b to build around and maybe Travis is it. Travis is out for a significant amount of time, but Hydra has thrown their hat out of race for 2017.

The haul for Bailey is 2 veteran pitchers in Happ and Vargas. Vargas is obviously playing out of his mind now.  I assume nobody was giving a big haul for a 34 year old having a career season averaging 30 points per game.  JA Happ on the other hand was great last year and only recently picked things up with back to back 40+ point games. I think both are probably around top 75 pitchers (maybe better), which in this league is very relevant.  Bailey’s pitching core is greatly improved from 2 players who won’t effect his bottom line this year.

I get that Hydra wanted to trade two 34 year olds because they could possibly be exposed and have very little value by season’s end. I think chances are one of them will be a very good value to keep next year, but it is unclear which. Even if we can predict Jason Vargas for having a good 2018 season, he’s still in the twilight of his career and getting 2 young assets is perhaps more intriguing. If this was the best they could get in their eyes, then that’s the market.. it feels a tad light.

Ultimately the trade is fine for both teams. If I’m Hydra, I would have liked someone better than Corey Ray, but this is a totally a prospect personal preference criticism.

 

 

TRADE: Foundation | We Talk Fantasy Sports

WTFS receives a $6 Melky Cabrera

Foundation receives a $5 Didi Gregorious

This trade is as pretty close to even as you can get.  Both are solid regulars who you’d expect to average between 4.5 and 5.5 points per game.  The main difference here is one plays a much more scarce position. With Jordan losing Jean Segura to the DL, he is probably going to benefit more in this trade than Keith will, and that’s not to say Keith did anything bad here.

I think being able to cycle through the OFs Jordan has (Harper, Thames, Calhoun, Granderson, etc), it was more valuable for him to get to turn an expendable. Melky into a sure fire play every day SS for him. Hopefully Torres’ eventual call up doesn’t limit Didi’s playing time, but even if it does, it was a risk worth taking.

 

Keith has Hernan Perez and Elvis Andrus to man SS, so trading his depth there will allow him to fill holes in his outfield.  Plus, if Keith decides to keep Buxton again, he can keep a very cheap outfielder in Melky to partially make up for that mistake.

Breaking down the math

2018: $40 Buxton- Not ideal

2018: $48 Buxton and Melky- Less not ideal

 

 

 

 

TRADE: Foundation + Capital City Ironmen

 

 

Hustle’s Take

Oh look, the commissioners trade with each other again, and only a few days before the one year anniversary of the infamous James Shields trade. Truth be told, the trade is very similar in structure.  Two upgraded picks for a player. The picks are worse this time.

 

That being said I love this trade for Bailey.  He has a glut of 2b in Devon Travis (hey Dusty), Neil Walker (who Jordan traded to Bailey), Marwin Gonzeles, and  Chris Owings. Also, he has Ian Happ in his minors that he could call up at any moment. Basically, there’s no way he’s going to remotely miss Jed Lowrie.

Jed Lowrie is 33, playing in Oakland, very injury prone, and currently over performing. He’s over 6 points per game at the moment, which is very good for any player and even better for a 2b.  Generally I think Jed Lowrie is an underrated player in this format when healthy and has a clear role, but he’s nothing special. When you’re owning Darwin Barney, I think you probably need to make a move for some middle infield depth or be more aggressive on the wire.

That being said, I think two 2nd rounders is a pretty steep price for Lowrie.  Does Bailey actually say no to one 2nd rounder with that depth? Did he? I’d say it would be pretty irresponsible to say no to 1 for him unless he was confident he could milk 2 (which he did).

I get Jordan hating prospects and picks, but a 2nd rounder was selling for 5-7 bucks last year.  I can’t get behind selling 2 of them for Lowrie. As our minor league player pool shallows out with getting 5 spots a year, the upper round picks in theory should be worth more. I also think Jordan could have used the other 2nd rounder as a trade chip in a different more impactful deal down the line. Now we probably see Bailey use Jordan’s pick somehow.

I’d be pretty surprised if Lowrie moved the needle for Jordan this season, but if it does, it’s worth it.

Trade: Long Ball to LF | Who’s Your Haddy

 

 

Tulo: $31 in 2017 and a 2018 5th rounder to Haddy

Triston Mckenzie (Prospect) to Long Ball

Hustle’s Take: I think this is a very reasonable trade for both teams, but I like what LongBall did here. He has Xander Boegarts averaging nearly 7 points a game with Jose Reyes as a backup, so where exactly does Tulo play? If it’s the old Tulo, he’s easily a UTIL or even the main SS for the team, but that ship has seemingly sailed. I think Tulo eventually gets healthy and puts together some productive stretches, but who knows if that’s even this year. At 33 bucks, he’s not a keeper unless he finishes the season quite strong. Trading him just as he comes off the DL for a t100 prospect could be a strong move.   When your team is doing well and you can make your team better in the future without sacrificing much for the present, I like it.

Triston Mckenzie has gotten a lot of buzz, but is still in Single A. He’s a lottery ticket like any other upside A ball pitcher, but he does seem like one of the better ones. Haddy’s farm takes a hit here, but if Tulo can stay healthy and be productive at one of the most shallow positions in the league, it’s a good get for him.

Andrew’s Take: I love this for Haddy. McKenzie is a fun prospect to dream on, but he’s basically forever away. By the time he debuts, Haddy can churn a handful of different prospects through that minor league spot and maybe a few will hit.

I know Tulo’s star as dimmed since he left Colorado, but he’s still a solid starting-caliber shortstop. Of course, he’s always hurt. He’s been hurt most of this season. Still, if you’re going to define Tulo as some kind of risk, I would argue that a 19-year-old pitcher’s risk is far, far greater.

Having said all that, after looking at Long Ball’s roster, I see a team in a spot similar to where I am. He just doesn’t really have cuttable players on his major league roster. So, he’s in a spot where he’s either got to cut someone decent and get nothing for that player, or sell someone for less than might be ideal to make room.

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | Preseason Double Stuffs

 

PDS Receives: Blake Snell $1 (P), Nick Senzel $0, CCI 1st round pick 2018

 

CCI Recieves: Giancarlo Stanon $74

 

Hustle’s Thoughts: I think today marks the exact one year anniversary of their trade last year (the Sonny Gray, Miggy, Bellinger deal)  and my how the tables have turned (180 degrees). The deal itself is pretty similar to last years, just a lot less pieces ( I believe 10 players were involved last year).

 

Anyway Bailey and Ferns being in a trade makes it very easy for me to rip on one of them, but truth be told it’s pretty reasonable.

I think a healthy Stanton at $74 is probably a very good value and someone Bailey would have no problem keeping at that price, or even $10 more. Problem is the obvious, health. Chances are if Ferns is out of this in a month or 2 he runs the risk of Stanton being hurt and having to make a difficult decision in the offseason or take less. Timing wise, it’s a pretty good time to trade Stanton if you’re a seller and can get a haul.

The Haul. In terms of the pick, who knows.  Per Joe Rawlings the draft is weak this year and this is likely to be a pick somewhere between 10-16. That being said, there’s always going to be a good player to grab and this lottery ticket puts you in a position to get one.

Nick Senzel (.124 ISO  .350 WOBA 2017) seems like a good prospect. I don’t think he has the offensive upside of a Stanton, but he seems to be a lock to make the majors by next season at the latest and be the future 3b for the Reds.  Currently Ferns has Ryon Healy and Maikel Franco, both are pretty young. I guess the hope is one of these guys will break out and be their sure fire 3b or they could all be just solid 4.5 ppg producers. Senzel will obviously be the cheapest one to carry next year at 0 or $1.

 

Blake Snell: Snell was an early pick in last year’s inaugural prospect draft and I believe Bailey traded into the first round to get Snell.  Currently he’s averaging just under 16 points a start. His HR/9 is up, his K rate is down, but he’s young.  Playing in the AL East will do him no favors but the ballpark should contain some damage.  I’m not sure we know how much Snell will cost next year, but I can’t imagine it will be that much at the rate his season is going.

If one of these three assets hit big, then it’s a good haul for Ferns, but we won’t likely know for a while, and in the meantime his team is considerably worse without Stanton.

All in all, I see this as a Ferns getting 3 interesting pieces for one of the best bats in the game.  One wonders if with Stanton gone if Miggy will stay put on PDS. After all, Ferns now has the overwhelming amount of budget space to keep Miggy and then some.  In fact, he could probably look to add a piece with the budget he’s created. Perhaps Giancarlo Stanton on 5/11/2018?

 

 

 

How DG became an Anti-Tanking League… against ALL odds!

 

 

EDIT: For those who need reminding (because it was discussed and originally voted on so long ago), this Rule was for the bottom 4 teams to have a playoff for the top picks.

Early exit polls suggested that a vote for my rule change would lose 15-1.  I was laughed at for my beliefs. “I don’t think this is important” said one owner.  “Seriously, why are we talking about this still?” said a commissioner.  “I think it’s just you vs the world on this one Hustle” said Alex Herd.

For those of you who don’t remember, this was discussed all the way back during Thanksgiving. I remember having a heated discussion on slack while buying an extra chair for the Thanksgiving table (that I would return a week later).

Unlike all other rule discussions, this one was never voted upon because ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

After pushing for a vote to see where the league stood, a delayed email requesting a vote was finally sent out.  “That rule is the stupidest shit that should not be passed” said Ferns in his polite tone.

After an email requesting a vote about a month ago was sent, there was no follow up or secondary requests for votes (like in previous rule votes).

But everything changed on February 2nd, 2017.

JUSTICE. DEMOCRACY. NO TANKING

“I guess” said one voter, while another one was overheard saying “I wasn’t sure what I was voting for based on the wording of the ballot”. The voice of the voiceless has finally been heard!

IT PASSED. AND WE WON THE POPULAR VOTE!!

Democracy has prevailed and Dynasty Grinders will be banning tankers. NOT IN THIS LEAGUE. Together we will make Dynasty Grinders Great Again.

 

Always hustling,

-HLR

PS: This one goes out to you know who.  We’re coming for the lineup delinquents next!!

Dear Ferns,

Greed Dollars in Perpetuity: A Dynasty Grinders Life Hack

If players who got on base were the market inefficiency of the early century, then greed dollars in perpetuity are the market inefficiency of Dynasty Grinders.

For those who have no idea what “greed dollars in perpetuity” means, it’s really just a fancy way of saying “forever”.  If I were to acquire the Foundation’s  greed dollar in perpetuity from say Team Hydra, that would mean I control an extra dollar of greed for the Foundation every year. With that extra dollar, I would be able to put $2 on any one of The Foundation’s players or $1 on two of their players. I know there have already been scholarly articles written on greed dollar strategy, but the way I see it, I will always be putting the dollar(s) on the most undervalued player. I think doing anything else would be too cute.

Reasons to trade your greed dollars in perpetuity

  • Efficiency: If I were to control twice (or more) of the amount of greed dollars for someone else’s team, you can be positive I won’t be half-assing it. With twice the power, comes twice the responsibility. Therefore, I assume that if I were to trade a greed dollar in perpetuity to someone else, they would be taking the task of assigning 2 greed dollars with more thought than they would otherwise. Since that extra greed dollar is being assigned to my opponent, it is to my benefit that someone else is putting forth additional consideration and thought into what player he will assign those dollars to. In a sense, greed dollar will be used more efficiently.
  • Consideration: A greed dollar in perpetuity is an asset, thus you should be able to get something for it. Whether it’s a throw in to get a deal done or a simple deal for an auction dollar or two, by trading it away, you will be getting something in return.
  • Time: You will have more time on your hands. Imagine the time it will take to browse a 30 man roster and determine who the best player to stick with $1 will take. Let’s say it will take 2 minutes. Now imagine you’re in this league for 30 years. That’s 30 times the amount of time. Now imagine if you traded all 15 of your dollars controlled greed dollars in perpetuity away. Woah. That’s 900 minutes… 15 hours. Basically the amount of time you’re up in a day. Longer if you plan on being in this league for 30 years. Now, I understand part of the draw to this league is that there is something to do every month, even in the offseason. If you look forward to greed allocation every season, this article isn’t for you. I probably should have said that earlier, but you’ve already read up to this point anyway. If you do choose to trade away all your greed dollars in perpetuity, please take some time in the free day I just gave you to write me a thank you note.

moneyball 

Conclusion: Trading away your greed seems like a no brainer to me. Your dollar will be used more efficiently by someone who now has more power/responsibility in assigning it, you will get something in return for it, and you will be saving a ton of time. You’re welcome

Note: all trading and deals involving greed dollars in perpetuity are intended to be for non collusive deals. Please see the example I used at the beginning for reference to what I was describing.