Trade: Capital City Income | Pre Season Double Stuffs

 

Capital City Income trades away
Urías, Julio ($1, first controlled year)

Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Cabrera, Miguel ($73)

Hustle’s $.02

First things first. We must recall that a little over a year ago PDS acquired Miggy from CCI. ¬†In sum from these two deals Bailey got a 1st round pick (Senzel…which was the center piece for Stanton), Soler (which was a big piece in his acquisition for Mccutchen), Ian Happ, Bellinger, and I guess Brett Phillips for damaged goods Urias and Blake Snell If I’m missing vital parts of these two transactions, I’ll be happy to edit.

CII gets reunited with Miggy. Miguel Cabrera is having a disappointing year and at his age, there’s a pretty high chance he’s not getting kept at $75. ¬†That being said, I don’t think he’s dead (unlike Urias). His numbers are down, most notably his slugging, but I kind of don’t buy one of the best hitters of all-time is done at 34. ¬†5 points a game is a disappointment by Miggy standards, but I think better times are ahead. David Ortiz had some bad stretches in his mid 30s and was a superstar late, and I don’t think he was the hitter in his prime Miggy was.

I totally get a rebuilding and moving on from Miggy and getting whatever value you can, but looking at PDS’s roster there aren’t a lot of cost commitments here. I see well under $100 bucks of keepable pitching and probably under $250 of keepable hitting. I’d say those figures are conservative and should be lower ¬†I’d say at a minimum (without other trades) PDS is going to have a ton of cash in the next auction. Auction cash is great, I probably overrate it more than most people, but having good players is better. ¬†PDS current projected 2018 roster highlights seem to be JD Martinez, Schoop, Jordan Montgonery (one of the year’s best pickups) and I guess Lance Lynn. All nice players. . That being said, I think this core is going to struggle in 2018, which is perfect for Urias , because I don’t think he’ll be pitching much in 2018.

As a Dodgers fan, I hope I’m wrong, but Urias’ effective or even complete career may be over. ¬†I think Bailey was very wise to get what he could for Urias now, because the best case scenario is he’ll be an OK pitcher in 2019. He’s damaged goods.

Urias‚Äôs injury¬†sends shock waves through the Dodgers‚Äô organization as only a handful of pitchers have ever had this surgery, and only Chris Young of the Royals has come back and pitched effectively at the Major League level after it.¬† Other pitchers who had capsule surgery are Rich Harden, Mark Prior, and Johan Santana.”

Chris Young Royals upside!  I mean, he won a World Series pitching for them. #ringz.

We were all really excited that first minor league draft and Urias was in the mix to be #1 overall. I think the shine has wore off considerably just because of this unfortunate injury. At least Urias will be DL eligible throughout the entire recovery process so a roster spot won’t be wasted. I expect Urias to give PDS very little if anything next year, but at least his $3 or whatever will be a drop in the bucket and won’t prevent them from spending on available assets.

Just for fun. JUST FOR FUN. ¬†Top 10 things I’d rather have than Julio Urias right now. (Again, I truly hope I’m wrong about Urias’ career.)

1) one first round pick

2) Aaron Hicks

3) $6 auction dollars.

4) ¬†Jordan’s greed dollar in perpetuity

5) Byron Buxton (so I have the ability to cut him.)

6) Tyler Oneil

7) Miguel Cabrera

8) Wander Javier‘s younger brother

9) The right to mention _____ in a trade review not involving him.

10) A damaged good prospect who has a lot of value in trade.

I know you all thought I would mention Sucre, but I take this seriously.

 

 

Trade: RockyMountain Oysters | Pre Season Double Stuffs

 

THE REVIEW

rocky mtn oysters trades away
López, Reynaldo ($1) *prospect controlled

Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Pirela, José ($3)

 

Word on the street was Priela was on the market today. ¬† This trade was good for both teams. ¬†Priela isn’t a great major leaguer and Lopez isn’t a great prospect. I think Ferns got some more upside here. It’s essentially a free look at Lopez later this year. ¬†All it cost him was a relatively unknown Padres prospect that was picked up off the wire a little over a month ago.

Priela has averaged over 6 points a game so far and has been a very useful piece. I think those ppg comes down, but there’s certainly some value here. ¬†Dusty’s team already has great 2b/LF flexibility with guys like Cano, Chris Taylor, Gyorko, Gardner etc. ¬†Dusty didn’t need to do this trade, but at the same time I don’t think he gave up much. Lopez has a 4.41 FIP in AAA this year with an 8.6 k/9.

Fine trade for both teams in their current spots in the standings. ¬†I’m not sure which or either of these guys will be kept because it could go a number of ways for both these players in the 2nd half.

 

*Disclaimer: I felt since Dusty was involved with this trade, I should be allowed to mention his name. I’m not sure what his preference is on the matter, but for the sake of trade review integrity I must. Remember

Trade: Capital City Income | Trumpa Loompas

 

Capital City Income trades away
2018 Draft Pick, Round 2 (rocky mtn oysters)
Abreu, Albert

Trumpa Loompas trades away
Salazar, Danny ($39 2017)  (LOOKED IT UP MYSELF!)

Hustle’s .02

This trade screams one thing to me. ¬†Bailey: “Why did I trade away Rich Hill?”

I was teasing a little when I thought this trade may be looked at through the lenses of proposed new scoring rules making relievers more valuable and home runs against less devastating. ¬†Danny Salazar might start some games this year, but right now it doesn’t look like that happens. ¬†If he does, we’re looking at a handful of starts and who knows how good he will be. It would be tough to predict multiple successful starts. At a $41 next year, he seems like a surefire cut regardless of rule changes.

I know Bailey’s thinking here “He was good, he could be good, he might be good… and I’m giving up crap” ¬†All true.

Albert Abreu was a fringe T100 prospect on very few rankings in the offseason and based of 2017 performance he won’t be on any updated ones. ¬†I usually shy away from Colorado and NYY pitchers because of the home run issue. That being said, with potential rule changes, if Abreu makes it as a starter in 3 years or so, the rule change would probably benefit him a decent amount if he stays a Yankee. If he becomes a dominant reliever, the rule change might make him a decent reliever to have. ¬†I don’t know much about him other than he throws hard.

This trade is slightly better for TL because Salazar is untradeable after the deadline and we won’t know if he’s going to start games until then. So there’s a good chance he gets nothing for Salazar if he doesn’t move him soon. Dusty having a lot of wins this season makes the pick less appealing, however Dusty is 12th in points so maybe that pick gets better.

I do like this for both teams.

Andrew’s thoughts:¬†

Of players with a minimum of 50 innings pitched, Danny Salazar is tied for the 19th best xFIP (3.57). His FIP is 4.59, a whopping 1.02 difference between FIP/xFIP. Of that same group, he’s tied with Tyler Glasnow with the worst BABIP (.366). His HR/FB rate (22.4%) is the fifth worst of that group.

Basically, I see a lot of poor luck in Salazar’s numbers. He’s walking more guys which is his own damn fault, but the K’s are still there. He averaged over 26 points a start last year. So whatever, he’ll probably pitch out of the bullpen the rest of the year and offer me nothing, but I think a top-200 type prospect and a second rounder is worth the gamble that he gets another shot in the rotation this year and produces. That might only buy me two or three actual starts come August, who knows. I don’t follow the Indians at all so maybe he’s a total wreck, but then I look at his numbers next to Josh Tomlin‘s and think… you’re seriously not giving him another shot at the rotation?

 

 

Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | Preseason Double Stuff

 

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
DeSclafani, Anthony ($11)

Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Garza, Matt ($3)

Hustle’s .02:¬†I guess the most interesting part of this trade is that Desclafani was $11 in auction or as a keeper. He isn’t due back until August at the earliest. Desclafani was better in 2016 that I remember, but I think he goes for cheaper than $13 in auction. ¬†This was a dead player for WTFS and they got some pitching help.

Garza has produced double digit positive points in 5 consecutive games, which in 2017 is something. Averaging 22 points a game certainly isn’t exciting, but very useful in 2017 if he keeps that up and you play his matchups well.

He seems like a top 7 SP on WTFS’s current roster (maybe top 5), so this is a¬†¬†trade for WTFS vying for a playoff spot.

As for PDS, even though I do not like this trade for them, losing Matt Garza will more then likely not come back to haunt them.

 

Andrew’s thoughts:¬†

This is a perfectly fine trade for both teams.

Matt Garza is very boring, but serviceable. WTFS needs pitching behind Max Scherzer in much the same way they need a time machine to go back and reverse the decision to keep Byron Buxton for $38. Garza’s been roughly a league average pitcher this year. I think he’s a decent, cheap guy to plug in for a while. If he’s decent, he could also be a keeper into 2018, though he’s unexciting enough that maybe you just toss him back into the pool.

The Double Stuffs’ season is over, so they get the younger guy with presumably higher upside in Anthony DeSclafani who might still be around next year. He was a 26.65 per start pitcher last year which is solid in Cincinnati. He’s hurt, but so what? At $13, they can keep him into 2018 if they want, or if he stays injured all year, just dump him. Whatever. I really don’t see a dramatic difference between trading Garza for some random, meh pitching prospect or trading him for DeSclafani, who may as well be a prospect too but has at least proven he can pitch in MLB.

Trade: Senior Squids | Capital City Income

 

Hill, Rich ($15)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Capital City Income)

Senior Squids trades away
Gattis, Evan ($9)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids

 

Hustle’s $.02

From a value standpoint. I think the trade is pretty even. Rich Hill clearly is the more risk reward player here and probably warrants the pick upgrade. This pick upgrade is for 2020 so it could be an upgrade of one pick or as many as 32. I’m going to guess in between.

For Bailey: I understand the appeal. He has some pitcher depth (after acquiring Happ/Vargas) and having a capable 2nd catcher is very useful in this league. Currently he has Martin as his guy, and that’s likely not to change on most nights. Catchers get hurt, and Gattis is a huge upgrade to anything he could get on the wire. It’s also useful for those days Martin just won’t play. ¬†It was about 2.5 months ago when Bailey traded away a 3rd rounder (essentially), Chris Carter, and Grichuk for ¬†Hill. ¬†Grichuk has been worthless and won’t be kept and Chris Carter has been a sparingly useful 1b/UTIl (5 pph) on the last place team. ¬†So he’s played musical chairs with some assets and ended up with a very nice backup catcher. If Rich Hill does get it going, this may look foolish with the current pitching landscape. I’d say on the surface this looks like Bailey selling high after one of Hill’s best starts, but it’s not like the sell-high netted too much.

Bailey’s Rating:¬†/5 Sticks

 

For Elton: We’ll find out pretty soon how this deal goes, because Rich Hill is the only real factor here. I think he’s going to either be a very good-great pitcher averaging close to or over 30 ppg or he’s going to continue to implode and the Dodgers will give him less starts and perhaps put him in the pen. ¬†He’s basically either a $30-40 pitcher or a $0 one. The Dodgers paid him, so he’ll get his chance, but there are some red flags in healthy, age, some diminished stuff, and the Dodgers have a plethora of options.

In a year where pitching is so difficult is the answer to just get more bullets or just strengthening your hitting and hope for the best on pitching? Squids is clearly doing the former.

The catcher isn’t so much a need for Squids because he has Zunino and Gary Sanchez. For me, this is a low risk “I’m going for it” deal. ¬†At 5-7 Squids chances at playoffs are losing steam each week so he needs to do something now and pitching is his biggest need. If he thinks he can do it, then I really like this deal for him. ¬†If he doesn’t make playoffs and Rich Hill is a pumpkin, then he loses a trade chip in Gattis, but hardly a significant one.

Squids Ratings Rating   / 5 Sticks

 

 

 

Trade: Team Hydra | Capital City Income

 

Team Hydra trades away
Vargas, Jason ($3)
Happ, J.A. ($5)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Ray, Corey
Travis, Devon ($11)

Hustle’s .02

When I went to take a piss at 5 in the morning I checked my phone and saw the email notification of this trade. With my senses barely there, I though this was a steal for Bailey. ¬†Having had my breakfast, coffee, and shower…I pondered the trade some more. ¬†I still think this is a good trade for Bailey, but more justified from Hydra’s stand point.

Firstly, I’m not a big Corey Ray fan. Moderate power and some above average speed which isn’t worth a lot in this format. In 2017 he’s striking out a ton with a .148 ISO in High A. If it wasn’t for him being the 5th pick last year (and a top 3 pick in our draft) he’d be completely off my radar. ¬†He’s still a bit away, isn’t that exciting (to me), and plays a deep position where you’ll really need to produce to be a contributor. On the other side, he’s young and has the pedigree to improve and be an impact player.

Devon Travis at $13 next year? ¬†This was famously a Dusty trade and ¬†drop and I believe the biggest FAAB acquisition in league history (Otani aside). I think a healthy Devon Travis is worth 13 bucks, maybe a few more. So there’s value here if he manages to stay healthy which he never has. Hydra doesn’t have a 2b to build around and maybe Travis is it. Travis is out for a significant amount of time, but Hydra has thrown their hat out of race for 2017.

The haul for Bailey is 2 veteran pitchers in Happ and Vargas. Vargas is obviously playing out of his mind now. ¬†I assume nobody was giving a big haul for a 34 year old having a career season averaging 30 points per game. ¬†JA Happ on the other hand was great last year and only recently picked things up with back to back 40+ point games. I think both are probably around top 75 pitchers (maybe better), which in this league is very relevant. ¬†Bailey’s pitching core is greatly improved from 2 players who won’t effect his bottom line this year.

I get that Hydra wanted to trade two 34 year olds because they could possibly be exposed and have very little value by season’s end. I think chances are one of them will be a very good value to keep next year, but it is unclear which. Even if we can predict Jason Vargas for having a good 2018 season, he’s still in the twilight of his career and getting 2 young assets is perhaps more intriguing. If this was the best they could get in their eyes, then that’s the market.. it feels a tad light.

Ultimately the trade is fine for both teams. If I’m Hydra, I would have liked someone better than Corey Ray, but this is a totally a prospect personal preference criticism.

 

 

TRADE: Foundation | We Talk Fantasy Sports

WTFS receives a $6 Melky Cabrera

Foundation receives a $5 Didi Gregorious

This trade is as pretty close to even as you can get. ¬†Both are solid regulars who you’d expect to average between 4.5 and 5.5 points per game. ¬†The main difference here is one plays a much more scarce position. With Jordan losing Jean Segura to the DL, he is probably going to benefit more in this trade than Keith will, and that’s not to say Keith did anything bad here.

I think being able to cycle through the OFs Jordan¬†has (Harper, Thames, Calhoun, Granderson, etc), it was more valuable for him to get to turn an expendable. Melky into a sure fire play every day SS for him. Hopefully Torres’ eventual call up doesn’t limit Didi’s playing time, but even if it does, it was a risk worth taking.

 

Keith has Hernan Perez and Elvis Andrus to man SS, so trading his depth there will allow him to fill holes in his outfield.  Plus, if Keith decides to keep Buxton again, he can keep a very cheap outfielder in Melky to partially make up for that mistake.

Breaking down the math

2018: $40 Buxton- Not ideal

2018: $48 Buxton and Melky- Less not ideal

 

 

 

 

TRADE: Foundation + Capital City Ironmen

 

 

Hustle’s Take

Oh look, the commissioners trade with each other again, and only a few days before the one year anniversary of the infamous James Shields trade. Truth be told, the trade is very similar in structure.  Two upgraded picks for a player. The picks are worse this time.

 

That being said I love this trade for Bailey. ¬†He has a glut of 2b in Devon Travis (hey Dusty), Neil Walker (who Jordan traded to Bailey), Marwin Gonzeles, and ¬†Chris Owings. Also, he has Ian Happ in his minors that he could call up at any moment. Basically, there’s no way he’s going to remotely miss Jed Lowrie.

Jed Lowrie is 33, playing in Oakland, very injury prone, and currently over performing. He’s over 6 points per game at the moment, which is very good for any player and even better for a 2b. ¬†Generally I think Jed Lowrie is an underrated player in this format when healthy and has a clear role, but he’s nothing special. When you’re owning Darwin Barney, I think you probably need to make a move for some middle infield depth or be more aggressive on the wire.

That being said, I think two 2nd rounders is a pretty steep price for Lowrie. ¬†Does Bailey actually say no to one 2nd rounder with that depth? Did he? I’d say it would be pretty irresponsible to say no to 1 for him unless he was confident he could milk 2 (which he did).

I get Jordan hating prospects and picks, but a 2nd rounder was selling for 5-7 bucks last year. ¬†I can’t get behind selling 2 of them for Lowrie. As our minor league player pool shallows out with getting 5 spots a year, the upper round picks in theory should be worth more. I also think Jordan could have used¬†the other 2nd rounder as a trade chip in a different more impactful deal down the line. Now we probably see Bailey use Jordan’s pick somehow.

I’d be pretty surprised if Lowrie moved the needle for Jordan this season, but if it does, it’s worth it.

Trade: Long Ball to LF | Who’s Your Haddy

 

 

Tulo: $31 in 2017 and a 2018 5th rounder to Haddy

Triston Mckenzie (Prospect) to Long Ball

Hustle’s Take:¬†I think this is a very reasonable trade for both teams, but I like what LongBall did here. He has Xander Boegarts averaging nearly 7 points a game with Jose Reyes as a backup, so where exactly does Tulo play? If it‚Äôs the old Tulo, he‚Äôs easily a UTIL or even the main SS for the team, but that ship has seemingly sailed. I think Tulo eventually gets healthy and puts together some productive stretches, but who knows if that‚Äôs even this year. At 33 bucks, he‚Äôs not a keeper unless he finishes the season quite strong. Trading him just as he comes off the DL for a t100 prospect could be a strong move.¬†¬† When your team is doing well and you can make your team better in the future without sacrificing much for the present, I like it.

Triston Mckenzie has gotten a lot of buzz, but is still in Single A. He’s a lottery ticket like any other upside A ball pitcher, but he does seem like one of the better ones. Haddy’s farm takes a hit here, but if Tulo can stay healthy and be productive at one of the most shallow positions in the league, it’s a good get for him.

Andrew’s Take:¬†I love this for Haddy. McKenzie is a fun prospect to dream on, but he’s¬†basically forever away. By the time he debuts, Haddy can churn a handful of different prospects through that minor league spot and maybe a few will hit.

I know Tulo’s star as dimmed since he left Colorado, but he’s still a solid starting-caliber shortstop. Of course, he’s always hurt. He’s been hurt most of this season. Still, if you’re going to define Tulo as some kind of risk, I would argue that a 19-year-old pitcher’s risk is far, far greater.

Having said all that, after looking at Long Ball’s roster, I see a team in a spot similar to where I am. He¬†just doesn’t really have cuttable players on his major league roster. So, he’s in a spot where he’s either got to cut someone decent and get nothing for that player, or sell someone for less than might be ideal to make room.

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | Preseason Double Stuffs

 

PDS Receives: Blake Snell $1 (P), Nick Senzel $0, CCI 1st round pick 2018

 

CCI Recieves: Giancarlo Stanon $74

 

Hustle’s Thoughts: I think today marks the exact one year anniversary of their trade last year (the Sonny Gray, Miggy, Bellinger deal) ¬†and my how the tables have turned (180 degrees). The deal itself is pretty similar to last years, just a lot less pieces ( I believe 10 players were involved last year).

 

Anyway Bailey and Ferns being in a trade makes it very easy for me to rip on one of them, but truth be told it’s pretty reasonable.

I think a healthy Stanton at $74 is probably a very good value and someone Bailey would have no problem keeping at that price, or even $10 more. Problem is the obvious, health. Chances are if Ferns is out of this in a month or 2 he runs the risk of Stanton being hurt and having to make a difficult decision in the offseason or take less. Timing wise, it’s a pretty good time to trade Stanton if you’re a seller and can get a haul.

The Haul. In terms of the pick, who knows. ¬†Per Joe Rawlings the draft is weak this year and this is likely to be a pick somewhere between 10-16. That being said, there’s always going to be a good player to grab and this lottery ticket puts you in a position to get one.

Nick Senzel (.124 ISO ¬†.350 WOBA 2017) seems like a good prospect. I don’t think he has the offensive upside of a Stanton, but he seems to be a lock to make the majors by next season at the latest and be the future 3b for the Reds. ¬†Currently Ferns has Ryon Healy and Maikel Franco, both are pretty young. I guess the hope is one of these guys will break out and be their sure fire 3b or they could all be just solid 4.5 ppg¬†producers. Senzel will obviously be the cheapest one to carry next year at 0 or $1.

 

Blake Snell: Snell was an early pick in last year’s inaugural prospect draft and I believe Bailey traded into the first round to get Snell. ¬†Currently he’s averaging just under 16 points a start. His HR/9 is up, his K rate is down, but he’s young. ¬†Playing in the AL East will do him no favors but the ballpark should contain some damage. ¬†I’m not sure we know how much Snell will cost next year, but I can’t imagine it will be that much at the rate his season is going.

If one of these three assets hit big, then it’s a good¬†haul for Ferns, but we won’t likely know for a while, and in the meantime his team is considerably worse without Stanton.

All in all, I see this as a Ferns getting 3 interesting pieces for one of the best bats in the game. ¬†One wonders if with Stanton gone if Miggy will stay put on PDS. After all, Ferns now has the overwhelming amount of budget space to keep Miggy and then some. ¬†In fact, he could probably look to add a piece with the budget he’s created. Perhaps Giancarlo Stanton on 5/11/2018?