Trades, trades, trades and trades.
Trades, Rockies 1B, Half Baked Ideas, Meetup?
Jordan rambles a lot.
Trumpa Loompas trades away
- Grandal, Yasmani C $22
- Belt, Brandon 1B $26
- 2019 Draft Pick, Round 1 (Trumpa Loompas)
Capital City Income trades away
- Stanton, Giancarlo LF/RF $78
- Solak, Nick 2B (ML)
Jordan’s thoughts: Without digging deep into this trade. I don’t like this trade for Bailey. Not one bit. Trading away Stanton for starter depth seems like the exact opposite of the type of thing you’d want to do.
I get it, Capital City has to shed salary, perhaps a lot of it. I also get it, there probably was not getting a ton of interest in Stanton. Especially since teams know that Bailey has decisions to make.
Grandal and Belt are valuable pieces. Both guys project to be in the 700-800 point range, which provides a solid starter, Grandal being a catcher is a nice find. But, Stanton is a transcendent talent. Not really overpaid. And he’s gone.
Simply put, using the Jordan Gillis projection simulator (TM) Bailey lost this trade by losing roughly 115 points and Loompas improved their team by roughly 150 points. These points are meaningless and my projection simulator isn’t worth its digital weight in gold. But, those numbers are fun.
I don’t love it for Bailey. For Chris with TL, you have to love the deal. Participating is a good start. Getting a top talent outfielder for a couple of replaceable pieces. Looks pretty great.
I’m glad this trade happens, two teams found some kind of agreement on the value of a guy that needs to be shed. Bailey didn’t lose his ass, and Chris didn’t steal a star talent. I just feel like the deal is still too light.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02: This trade seems fine for both teams.
Bailey had notoriously been shopping high contract guys due to needing to shed some salary, and he did that. The fact that he had shopped guys around for weeks tells me this was either the best deal he could have made or close. Losing Stanton will hurt, but catcher was at least a need and he fills it with one of the best. Brandon Belt struggles to stay healthy and hits in the worst stadium, but at least his Streamer projections are nice. The first round pick is a decent asset. I don’t hate the return, maybe it should have been more. I guess if I had to choose between giving up Stanton or Carrasco, I choose Carrasco, but maybe the offers weren’t strong enough to accomplish that here.
For Trumpa Loompa, adding Stanton is a giant uprgade to their offense now led by Stanton, Machado, and Steven Duggar. Finding a replacement for Grandal won’t be easy, but Stanton’s points should make up for that. Their next step should be to find a way to add some strong pitching and this team could contend for the playoffs.
Looking strictly at the big picture, these teams constructed their rosters in a way to make moves like this not only possible, but in cases like this a necessity. When we make trades in fantasy baseball, we are not only trading players, draft picks, and auction cash, but we are trading away ideas. The idea here is simple, 1) state your needs 2) find a common ground and 3) execute rational decision making. The decision making we see here in Stanton for smaller contracts and a pick is a perfect example of what we s like to call “trading”. It’s a beautiful thing.
I really had nothing. I’ll try better next time.
Senior Squids trade away:
- 1B Evan White (ML)
- P Franklin Perez (ML)
The Wildfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses trade away:
- 1B Eric Hosmer ($32)
Jordan’s thoughts: Squids trades here, two top 200 prospects for an expensive 1B that needs a bounce-back. Hosmer went from Kansas City to San Diego and got worse. He was already borderline average or worse. Perhaps Squids noticed the trend that is Hosmer’s roller coaster career:
- 2011 – 113 wRC+
- 2012 – 80 wRC+
- 2013 – 120 wRC+
- 2014 – 98 wRC+
- 2015 – 124 wRC+
- 2016 – 102 wRC+
- 2017 – 135 wRC+
- 2018 – 95 wRC+
- 2019 – ???
Steamer currently says 110. If it is 110, its okay. If he’s back to 120 or 130 its pretty good. The prospects are fine, but easily replaceable. I wouldn’t personally bet on Hosmer bouncing back in 2019 in a way that makes this an easy keep. But, I’m fine with other people doing so. I’m more fine selling him for two prospects that are easy to require like punting a Hosmer.
Andrew’s thoughts: I’m 100% out on Eric Hosmer as a fantasy asset. He’s only 29 so maybe he FIGURES IT OUT, but this dude has a 109 WRC+ with more than 5,000 career plate appearances. He hits the ball on the ground too much, offers zero year over year consistency (unless you buy into the “every other year he’s good” thing), and plays 1B, a position where you really need a guy that can mash. To me, Hosmer’s draw is that he plays every day. That’s it. That’s not the kind of player I’m into.
Having said that, Evan White and Franklin Perez don’t seem like much to me and if Hosmer gets plopped back into auction, $32 is probably the ballpark for what he gets paid. I wouldn’t want to pay him that, but if the pool is garbage, you may have to. A wise man once told me that the auction will be a blood bath.
I guess I don’t see a definite winner here, really. Squids paid a little to lock up a depth piece with I suppose some semblance of upside (Hosmer’s .376 wOBA in 2017 was a thing that happened, after all) in exchange for two lotto tickets. I’m sure WBFD saw all the flaws in Hosmer’s game and the salary and just said, screw it, I’ll take these two prospects.
Having said all that, this deal is available to both teams the first week of February, right? Like, Squids could have saved these two bullets to see if something better comes along and WBFD could’ve held on to see if perhaps Hosmer gets traded to the Rockies, yes? Eh, whatever.
Senior Squids trades away:
The Process trades away:
- SS Jeter Downs (ML)
- 2B/SS Jonathan Schoop ($17)
- 1B/2B/3B/SS/LF Niko Goodrum ($5)
Jordan’s thoughts: Ketel Marte is projected to be a ~800 point 2B/SS with a 1.27 PPPA. That’s pretty great. He’s only $9, he’s a steal. Jon Schoop plays the same positions, has a 1.24 PPPA. So they’re the same. He costs $8 more. So..ummm…yeah. Niko Goodrum was trashed on the podcast enough, but I’ll just say that finding a 1 PPPA player is basically replacement level. Sure he plays a lot and can fit into a few positions, there’s some value there. Not much.
Jeter Downs is a 45+ rated prospect that was ranked 7th in the Reds organization. Okay.
Rich Hill for under $20 is a nice value pitcher. He’s projected for something like 800-900 points. Now I realize he’s not without risk. But, all pitchers have built in risk. Even if you get just 10-15 Rich Hill starts, he’s easily worth $19.
This trade confuses me. In a vacuum I love this trade for The Process. In the context of these teams with their current situation…well The Process traded away spare parts that had little or no value for two valuable pieces.
For Senior Squids, he’s won some trades recently, this one baffles me.
Andrew’s thoughts: If I were just ranking the individual players in this trade, including salaries and all, for me it’d go: Marte, Hill, Schoop, Goodrum, Downs. If not for his amazing 2017 that now looks flukey, I’d bump Schoop down below Goodrum.
I guess what I’m saying is, I like this for The Process. I really like Ketel Marte for some reason I can’t put my finger on. Take the projections with a grain of salt if you must, but Steamer has Marte scoring 165.4 more points than Goodrum next year. And I’m kinda buying that, actually. I get that Goodrum is a few bucks cheaper and has three extra positions, but I’d prefer points over positions. Marte was at one time a pretty legitimate prospect. There’s some pedigree here. Goodrum just sort of came from nowhere. Other than a pretty good hard hit rate, I see nothing in Goodrum’s profile that suggests to me he’s anything more than a guy who may play a lot and accumulate stats inefficiently. A utility guy, basically. Oh, and Marte’s hard hit rate was only 0.6% lower than Goodrum’s, so it’s not like there’s even a gap in that one specific data point.
Dick Mountain, meanwhile, is old and fragile and risky, but he’s good as long as he pitches. His skills aren’t in question and if he gives you another 130 inning season for $19, you should be very happy. I’d rather gamble on his health than gamble on Schoop actually being any good, which I think is very much up for debate considering every year of his career sans 2017.
Senior Squids trades away:
- P Sandy Alcantara (ML)
- OF Kyle Lewis (ML)
- OF Jahmai Jones (ML)
The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses trades away:
Jordan’s thoughts: Squids punches the ticket on three prospects who are or were recently on top 100 lists. The shine on Alcantara, Lewis and Jones is not as bright as it once was, but likely it is not all gone either.
In return, he gets two fairly priced starters. Both players are currently MLB free agents so there is definitely more than a healthy dose of uncertainty. In a vacuum I really enjoy this trade for Squids. You trade three prospects who might be useful, might not be, and turn them into players you should be able to bank on holding down 3B and C for you.
If you’re punting your season before Christmas like WBFD here, I guess tossing away two guys for three prospects is fine. I don’t love it, but its fine.
Andrew’s thoughts: I like this one for the Squids.
Neither Mike Moustakas or Wilson Ramos are super exciting players but they’re the kind of players contending teams need and frankly, as cheap as they are, I’m not sure why WBFD didn’t just hang onto them. I can’t imagine buying better players for better salary at auction, and this trifecta of prospects strike me as guys that you hope develop into depth pieces rather than building blocks.
I mean, I get that WBFD is rebuilding. But this isn’t a move that slashes a ton of salary. Neither Moustakas or Ramos were in position to be cuts. They weren’t “take whatever I can get” salary dumps. Like, if you re-invest the $29 into a single player at auction, what is that likely to buy you? Adam Jones? Curtis Granderson went for $27 last year. Is a $29 Steven Matz plus these three prospects better than Moustakas and Ramos? Maybe! I don’t really know. These prospects just don’t excite me enough to want to dump proven major league talent for them and then have to gamble on getting decent replacement talent at auction.
Long ball to LF trades away:
- CF Cristian Pache (ML)
- SS Gavin Lux (ML)
The Process trades away:
- SP Luis Patino (ML)
Jordan’s thoughts: Prospect for prospect trades are always mildly interesting. Sure, some are better than others, but we’re basically trading guys positioned on opinion lists for each other. We don’t get to scout or know anything more about these players than the writers who are interpreting what they see, or worse, what other people say they are seeing.
That being said, Luis Patino according to the hive-mind at FanGraphs.com was ranked 60th on the prospect list at one point. He’s a 50 FV prospect with a high risk and estimated 2023 debut. I understand that since that ranking his stock has improved. Okay. He is listed at 6’0 150 lb. I get called quite skinny, and I’m 5’4 145lb. Yeesh.
Pache is ranked higher on the list I have. Again probably outdated. 60 FV, 18th on the top 100. Without digging deeper, perhaps his stock is high because of defensive value. While we don’t get points for defense, we do get points for players that play and typically great defenders get lots of chances to learn how to hit.
Gavin Lux has been traded for a second time and he’s still a 45 FV prospect who apparently is climbing some charts. He hit well in AA last year.
Everyone wins this trade because trades are fun.
Andrew’s thoughts: I’m not prepared to argue either side of this trade is better than the other, so good for both teams. I think Cristian Pache is probably the highest “ranked” guy, but all the scouting reports I’ve read suggest to me that he’s all defense and speed and maybe you’re lucky if he’s Kevin Pillar or Kevin Kiermaier, well, that’s not particularly relevant to our scoring. But if he can hit at even a league average level for centerfield, well, at zero cost, maybe that’s useful.
Patino, meanwhile, just seems forever away. Remember Anderson Espinoza from a few years back? He was the next Pedro Martinez until he got hurt and fell off the face of the planet. Personally, I tend to devalue pitching prospects with long lead times. This seems to me like Long Ball is betting on Patino climbing prospect lists so that he can flip him for something better.
But whatever. This trade seems fine to me overall.
- Episode Notes
- 30 listens last week, are we rich yet?
- Winter Meetings
- Has Bryce Harper signed yet?
- McCutchen to the Phillies
- Nova to the White Sox 🙁
- Openers for Days
- Charlie Morton to Rays
- More teams talking about openers
- Pending Trades…why!?
- Three ways to paradise
- Why do I have so many Logan Allen DMs?
- Best value player who’s costing more than $75 (most likely to get cut?)
- Kershaw 123
- Bryce 115
- Trout 101
- Sale 97
- Goldy 94
- Max 92
- Kluber 88
- Correa 87
- Syndergaard 86
- Rizzo 81
- Archer 81
- Bryant 81
- Machado 78
- Giancarlo 78
- Cole 77
- Carrasco 77
- Arenado 75
- Kyle Noseworthy [5:33 PM]
- Why do Marwin Gonzalez’s stock plummet?
- bailey [6:15 PM]
- The Reds got Tanner Roark. Are they now the World Series favorites?
- kodiak_chris [6:40 PM]
- What moves do you think the KODIAKS need to make to be competitive and playoff bound. Is there any chance or stear into the rebuild
- nosey_kyle [6:26 PM]
- 2019 Dy Nasty, do we see new blood in playoffs?
- Kyle Noseworthy [5:33 PM]