Joe Rawlings and Jon Iosim get together to talk without Bailey and Jordan. I’m sure it’s better.
Rocky Mountain Oysters sends: $10 2017 Auction Budget
Who’s Your Haddy? sends: 2017 4th round pick & another 2017 4th round pick
Andrew’s thoughts: Haddy swinging this deal from court is ironic since I think he should be put on trial for robbery. Hey-ooooooo!
I traded $6 and one of the 4ths in this deal for the 24th overall pick. So for some reason Dusty’s paying basically the same price for picks two full rounds later. Whatever, I guess. Feels like an overcorrection to having a ton of auction budget and no draft picks. Aren’t Will Benson and Joey Wentz the type of guys you can wait and find on waivers later? Meh. Maybe they’re awesome and I have no clue what I’m talking about. Better hope they sprout trade value by July.
Jordan’s thoughts: The price of getting on the draft clock seems to be roughly $5. This is for back to back picks. Cool I guess.
Andrew Bailey and I get together to talk via Slack Chat and we discuss a whole lot of things over a very long time and hey, this podcast actually exists again. Enjoy it!
Warning James Shields chatter.
Jordan’s thoughts: Hey look, back-to-back trades for my co-commish for older outfielder stars. One thing that I didn’t consider in my opinions of the previous trade, was the potential that WTFS would need to cut McCutchen due to budget reasons. As for that deal and this deal. I don’t think it changes my opinion a whole lot.
I hope beyond hope as a Mariners fan that Vogelbach is an interesting piece to own in fantasy soon. I don’t really believe it as I see his fantasy upside something as your swing UT #2 guy. Useful, but not great.
The 11th overall pick could be interesting in the long term and has some value. But, its really only worth its weight in hype. The budget money moving one way or another I’m sure helps Hydra make one decision easier and that has value.
But, I think punting the #3 overall RF last year is a bit of mistake. At least this is a sell low. It is early in the off-season to be in this position for my liking. I know they were shopping him, but this is the best?
As for Andrew, consider his position. He sold his team, upgraded young assets, and then bought two win now assets on the market for dimes on the dollar. Is Cruz as good as he was last year next year? STEAMER projects say no, not close. But, they still have him as a serviceable starter. Again, I believe this is a high floor buy, with proven talent to reach 1,000 points.
If you believe the draft will be full of these kinds of guys, I think you’re wrong. If I am wrong, then Andrew probably would rather have kept his money and bid on things. But, he literally sent a few tiny assets and upgraded his active roster.
I hate it for Hydra, love it for Capital City. But, Hydra is the champs, and Capital City settled for #1 overall. So maybe they know more than this trade leads on.
Andrew’s defense: Hydra won the championship, so I’m sure they’re not too bummed about being way above our $500 cap. But the fact remains, they’re way above the cap.
In that sense, you could assume they might cut a player like Nelson Cruz who, at $34, strikes me as a bargain. Maybe it isn’t Cruz that goes, but someone similar. They do have some easy big dollar cuts ($41 Prince Fielder, $49 Sonny Gray). Still, someone has to go. But “having to go” also could mean they trade him to someone else. Right? It doesn’t mean that player will just be there come auction time, guaranteed, when I’ve got cash to spend. I also have some doubts about what’ll be available in the auction anyway. If a guy like Cruz gets there, I think there’s a good shot he’s one of the few impact players available and as a result, goes for well more than $34. He was easily worth more than $34 last year.
As for projections and such, here’s Cruz’s wOBA over the past four years: .383, .396, .370, .359. That’s consistency. There’s some risk because he’s old and sometimes old guys see their skills erode or get hurt. But Cruz seems safe to me. That is to say, if he does suddenly fall off, it’s not like I would pull up his FanGraphs page and go “oh yeah, should’ve seen this coming.” And if he gets hurt, well… it happens.
As for what I gave up, I like Vogelbach a lot. He’s fun. He’s a big old round guy that hits a ton. He’s like Ferns, but you know, hits a ton. I don’t doubt his ability to hit, but I worry for his opportunity and think the lack of defense could be a detriment to his playing time. Plus, if he’s only a 1B or UT, the bar is higher. And his cost control clock has started, so if he’s only going to get 250-300 PAs next year, that’s another year of control gone for the sake of a bench hitter.
The pick is neat. Based on my early draft rankings, the 11th overall pick translates to something around the 65th or 70th prospect on a list (an overall list, not a fantasy list). Those players are risky. Also, there are a lot of pitching prospects in the 11th overall range, and pitchers are risky too. I would have loved to use that pick, but I also spent all of last year acquiring prospects and have picks two, three, and four. I think I can spare one lottery ticket for a really good player at a good salary.
We Talk Fantasy Sports sends: CF Andrew McCutchen ($71), 5th round 2018 Draft Pick
Capital City Ironmen send: C Travis d’Arnaud ($22), LF Jorge Soler ($18), CF Billy Hamilton ($10), 2nd round 2018 Draft Pick
Jordan’s thoughts: Andrew McCutchen just had the worst season since becoming a super star of Major League Baseball. It was so awful that he finished as the 11th best center fielder. Let that sink in for a second. A super star, gets paid a lot, under performs and his apparent floor is 11th best in the league at his position.
Granted I would rather not be paying super star keeper money for a guy finishing as the 11th best at his position, but that has to be his floor right? I think so. I think McCutchen gets back into the top 5, possibly even the top 3 of center fielders next season. I absolutely love this trade for CCI as they gave up almost nothing, and got back a potential superstar. If he has back to back mediocre seasons, then you cut him or trade him for some poo poo package next year and you’re out nothing. The odds that CCI would spend the $71 on a better gamble in the draft are really low in my opinion.
For WTFS, I don’t understand this trade at all. I would almost certainly rather risk McCutchen to the draft with intentions of drafting him for less cash at auction. I don’t see how you keep d’Arnaud at that price. Soler is easier to keep since he got traded to Kansas City, but that’s not a prize piece. Billy Hamilton doesn’t get points for defense, and doesn’t really get enough points for steals. I just don’t see the upside of forcing this deal.
Andrew’s defense: Projection systems are far from infallible, but Steamer has Andrew McCutchen pegged for a .363 wOBA, the 15th highest mark among hitters. As Jordan mentioned, last year was a down year. But Cutch’s floor remained pretty high — he still grossed 829.9 points — and his second half numbers look on par with his career norms. He posted a .355 wOBA in August and a .374 across September and October. He actually had a .333 in March/April and a .343 in May (not $71 good, but pretty good still), so really the .250 in June and .300 in July are what dragged his season totals down. I think seven-plus seasons of production are more telling than two crappy months, particularly because of that strong finish.
Would I rather take the Cutch leap at, like, $50? Sure. But I’m really not confident he would’ve made it back to auction for that opportunity to present itself. And I think the main utility of $1 prospects like Trevor Story and Sean Manaea is to create so much surplus that it enables you to spend elsewhere, be it on risks or safe bets.
It took exactly one week, but the official greed vote results are in! More analysis to come, but for now look over this ugly spreadsheet!
Oh, and Happy Thanksgiving!
Jordan’s thoughts: Chris Archer was awesome in 2015. He was decent in 2016. Kenta Maeda was in Japan in 2015. He was decently good in 2016. Early projections from Steamer has Archer as the better pitcher per start, and for an extra couple starts.
I think its pretty safe to say that you’d rather have Archer in all walks of life. However, in Dynasty Grinders, what can you do with $52? Well lots of things. I’d rather have a really good player and Maeda over Chris Archer so for this deal I like the Double Stuffs.
I also like what Longball did here, they upgraded. Archer’s ceiling is higher and leaning towards elite, and that’s worth the gamble.
Andrew’s thoughts: Echoing what Jordan said, most signs point to Archer being better than Maeda, but a $50+ gap is big. Both guys strike out a lot of hitters, so there’s no big swing there. I suppose you could contend Maeda has some injury worries (what else explains his weird Dodgers contract?) or you could worry that with a year’s worth of data and tape, hitters might figure Maeda out. On the flip side, what if that’s why Archer had a down 2015? That can cut both ways.
Sans salaries, you want Archer here. But given the salaries, Maeda plus a $52 player or Maeda plus a $30 player and a $22 player, whatever, makes plenty of sense too.
The inaugural Dynasty Grinders regular season is over! Team Hydra edges out TBD on the back of recently traded Corey Kluber. We’ll never know if the 90 point swing was enough to sink TBD or not.
Hustle Loyalty Respect edges out the Trumpa Loompas to finish in 3rd place. We Talk Fantasy Sports topped Team Canada to win the second tier bracket. Who’s Your Haddy beat Rocky Mountain Oysters to win the third tier. Finally, In shorter line for the win topped The Foundation to win the Toilet Bowl bracket.
The first season was a real experience. I’m already looking forward to season 2! Have a fun off-season.
Jonathan Iosim jumps on with host Jordan Gillis. We talk about the first week of the playoffs, the championship matchup and riff on possible rule change discussions coming up after the season. Listen in!
The trade deadline occurred. Jordan and Jonathan go over the last couple trades, some playoff potential, make fun of each other and end up talking about Pokemon. Enjoy!