Is It Baseball Season Yet? Episode Four – Happy Birthday Chris

  • Episode Notes
    • 30 listens last week, are we rich yet?
  • Winter Meetings
    • Has Bryce Harper signed yet?
    • McCutchen to the Phillies
    • Nova to the White Sox 🙁
    • Openers for Days
      • Charlie Morton to Rays
      • More teams talking about openers
    • Realmuto!
  • Trades
    • Pending Trades…why!?
    • Three ways to paradise
      • We Talk Fantasy Sports gets:
      • Marshall Law gets:
      • The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses gets:
        • SP J.B. Bukauskas
        • CF Leody Taveras
        • 2019 1st Round Pick
        • 2019 2nd Round Pick
    • Why do I have so many Logan Allen DMs?
  • Best value player who’s costing more than $75 (most likely to get cut?)
    • Kershaw 123
    • Bryce 115
    • Trout 101
    • Sale 97
    • Goldy 94
    • Max 92
    • Kluber 88
    • Correa 87
    • Syndergaard 86
    • Rizzo 81
    • Archer 81
    • Bryant 81
    • Machado 78
    • Giancarlo 78
    • Cole 77
    • Carrasco 77
    • Arenado 75
  • Mailbag
    • Kyle Noseworthy [5:33 PM]
    • bailey [6:15 PM]
      • The Reds got Tanner Roark. Are they now the World Series favorites?
    • kodiak_chris [6:40 PM]
      • What moves do you think the KODIAKS need to make to be competitive and playoff bound. Is there any chance or stear into the rebuild
    • nosey_kyle [6:26 PM]
      • 2019 Dy Nasty, do we see new blood in playoffs?

Trade: The Foundation | Capital City Ironmen

The Foundation trades away

2019 3rd Round Draft Pick

Capital City Ironmen trades away

1B, 2B,SS,LF Marwin Gonzalez ($11)

Jordan’s thoughts: Traded a pick for a useful player. Seems fine.

Andrew’s thoughts, as told by Jordan: Going to hate this some day, but the market is blind to talent. They want picks so I’m collecting picks.

Iosim’s toxic two cents, also as told by Jordan: At least people are participating. 

Greed Vote 2018

TLDR: Greed Vote Results Sheet

News broke live on the podcast! 16 greed votes are in. Thus we can now announce the changes that have already been made in the Fantrax system. you can see in the link at the top how your and other teams fared.

Some highlights: Beach Bum was the only team to have two or less players greed. Both Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabetesus and Trumpa Loompas had eight different players greeded for at least one auction dollar.

National League MVP Christian Yelich unsurprisingly grabbed 13 greed votes. Somewhat surprisingly one of the top finishers in the American League MVP race Jose Ramirez got just 10 greed votes.

Freddie Freeman got 11 votes. Javier Baez, Nick Castellanos, Charlie Blackmon got 9 votes. 80 players in total got raises. 36 of those 80 however got just one vote for one auction dollar.

With the greed vote done, 2019 auction values are now set. It should remove some of the shroud hovering over some players heading into next year’s auction draft.

Is It Baseball Season? Episode Three – Disingenuous Bundling

Episode Three – disingenuous bundles

  • League News
    • Bundling worked.
    • Cost Control
    • Greed Voting
  • Trade
    • Would you trade during greed voting?
      • How about cutting guys during greed voting?
    • How much does auction dollars influence trades?
    • Of all the trades reviewed on dynastygrinders.com do any of them stick out as surprising?
  • Participation is just higher than shit.
    • New owners?
    • Trade market being open?
    • What else?
  • Mailbag
    • Elton: Why do teams value players so high that they will probably be cutting?
    • Kyle: How do you see the greed vote change impact?  Do you think it will cause immediate roster crunches or do you think it will play out more gradually?
    • Elton: Give us an example of cost control players salary next year with the new rule, such as Trout and maybe a couple of other players.
    • Question for Bailey

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | We Talk Fantasy Sports

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away

1B Kendrys Morales ($12)

Capital City Ironmen trades away

P Tyler Phillips (prospect)
P Ramon Rosso (prospect)

Jordan’s thoughts: I owned stock in Kendrys Morales late last season in a different league and he went on to hit homers in eight straight games during a playoff run. It was neat. Overall last season Morales was pretty poor for a 1B/UT player. He’s not expensive, not a drain on your roster, but apparently he hits better blind.

This deal literally cost Bailey nothing. These pitcher prospects boast FVs of 40 and 35+ and neither are top 20 for their respective teams. They’re below AA and while something could get them on the hype train, it’s not a shoe in.

I like this deal for Bailey. Even if he cuts Morales prior to the draft, he gave up nothing. If he keeps Morales, it probably means he got a decent haul for Nelson Cruz. Win win for him.  I assume Keith sees something in one or both guys to be excited about the deal. If so great good for him too.

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

This is probably the worst trade off the offseason so far. Keith managed to trade away a much cheaper better Kendrys Morales for nothing while giving away some small but actual assets for a much more expensive much shittier Ian Desmond. I would rather have a 2nd round pick, Clint Frazier, OR Kendrys Morales than Ian Desmond, Ramon Rosso, or Tyler Phillip. It’s not even close really. If I had all 3 of the latter pieces, I would BUNDLE them for any one of the three former in a heartbeat.

The prospects here are truly useless. I can’t imagine what Bailey said or Keith read to have needed these guys. Between Rosso and Phillips you’re looking at a 20 % one of them is a bad pitcher in the majors in 2-3 years, which is an asset in abundance on the waiver wire. Meanwhile Morales has value as a bat who you can start at 1B or in either of your two utility spots vs righties. Morales had a monster 2nd half and while he’s no spring chicken and could decline, the price was right compared to other guys acquired this offseason for WTFS.

If you read my review of Kremer for Zimmerman, this is like that but worse because Keith paid assets earlier for a much worse and more expensive 1b than either Morales/Zimmerman and at the same time managed to get a worse pitching prospect than the 4th best Orioles pitching prospect. I’d have Kremer ahead of Rosso just because at least he’s in AA and was a Dodger at one point. In no way am I writing off the careers of Rosso or Phillips, heck I owned Phillips once, but these are no different than guys who can be picked up at will or with 5th round picks.

Truly a head scratching trade here.

Trade: Marshall Law | Evil Otters

Marshall Law trades away

OF Alex Verdugo ($303 $3.03)
2B/3B/SS Javier Baez ($20)

Evil Otters trades away

SS Francisco Lindor ($57)

Jordan’s thoughts: I like how this occurs during the greed process. Not waiting a day or two on a cold day in December to get this trade done just to see i the values of these players change at all. I’m not saying that $5-12 changes this deal at all. It probably does not.

Anyway Lindor and Baez were both really good last year. That’s no surprise to anyone. Projections both have them regressing somewhat, Baez more so. I do not think there’s a lot of reason to be low on either player. I think ultimately you rather have Lindor, but at three times the (pre-greed) cost? Yeah probably.

Alex Verdugo does swing it a bit. He hit amazing last year in AAA. Which was good for zero points. His production for the Dodgers was sparse and not fantasy relevant. I don’t know if he finds playing time next year, and if he doesn’t. He just gets more expensive for nothing. Potentially sure, he gets traded or injuries create opportunity. He’s a nice piece. That doesn’t really move the needle a lot. I’ll eat my crow if he jumps for 1000 points next year.

Huge win for Marshall Law in my book here.

 

 

Hustles Toxic $.02  I think this trade is fine for both teams. I’m not nose deep into everyone’s budget but I cant imagine Kyle was scraping too hard for budget this year .. even with recent trades. I’d rather have the better player, which is Lindor here. I think Verdugo’s low upside doesn’t really cover the ground.  My guess is also that Baez gets greeded a bit more than Lindor (unfortunately), which might make the price difference a little less attractive.  I think Kyle should have probably waited a day, seen what Baez went up to and leveraged that somehow.  In the end, it’s probably not a big deal and this trade is reasonable.  I personally think Baez is due for a giant regression, but thats more of a testament to the amazing year he had than think he’s bad or anything.

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | TrusttheProcess

Capital City Ironmen trades away

CF Lorenzo Cain ($34)

TrusttheProcess trades away

3B/LF/RF Wil Myers ($21)

Jordan’s thoughts: I love that these kinds of deals exist. These players are fairly similar. Steamer projections currently have them roughly 50 points apart in 2019. I think with those two numbers being fairly close, you’d rather have Myers who qualifies at three positions for $13 less.

However, Cain on a PPPA level is just further ahead, and that’s where his value really kicks in. His ceiling and floor is just higher. There’s a premium for that. In most cases you would rather  fill the CF spot of your line-up over the three that Myers qualifies for.

So with both players being so close, and the money isn’t that far off either, we go to their rosters for motivation to pick a winner. TTP collects Cain, despite having Aaron Hicks  who also can only play CF. Now for the moment they don’t have a starter at LF.

The Ironmen still have Bryce Harper in CF assuming they keep him. If not, Cody Bellinger qualifies there. Myers is the first spell for three spots. I think the crazy thing is realizing the Ironmen still look incredibly strong in this deal even if they don’t get a player back.

Simply put, the Ironmen saved some money have still have a quality player. If you TrusttheProcess you see they upgraded a player, didn’t spend much more money on them, but did create a potential hole to fill in the line up. Slight win to Bailey?

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

Trade is fine for both teams. In a vacuum I like Cain more because he’s stayed healthy  recently and will hit at the top of a good lineup and good park. CF is also probably a more valuable position than the ones Myers has, but at least Myers has some flexibility, so maybe that part is a wash.  The $ difference surely makes up some, if not all, of the ground of wanting Cain over  Myers.

Both these guys are former HLR Legends.  I like that Bailey is acquiring my 2017 Corner Infield duo of Myers/Santana.  They were inconsistent, not fun, and frustrating to own in 2017, so I’d venture to say Bailey will not have a great experience with these two in 2019.  I can’t hate this too much for Bailey because he is solving his position questions through trades than relying on the auction which just lost Miguel Sano, more on that later I suppose.

Seems non-counterproductive to take care of all these needs for Bailey in one day as a bundle.

 

Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | Capital City Ironmen

Capital City Ironmen trades away:
SP Dallas Keuchel ($47)
OF Shin-soo Choo ($19)

We Talks Fantasy Sports trades away:
1B/3B Carlos Santana ($33)
$15 in 2019 Auction Budget

Jordan’s thoughts: I really like Dallas Keuchel going to pair with newly acquired Corey Kluber. Spending money for pitchers who show up and pitch. Keuchel lost a tiny bit off the K/9 last year, but Steamer projects him to come back up a tad. He doesn’t allow homer and he makes 30+ starts a season. He’s very valuable in this format and at that price point an easy keeper.

Shin-soo Choo quietly played 146 games last year with a  .355 wOBA. Even if he loses a tiny bit of edge here, he’s a great value at $19. He’s the good kind of boring fantasy player that many people forget about.

Carlos Santana is presumably getting traded to the Mariners, and perhaps traded again. Who knows what Jerry Dipoto is doing. Santana fits in well in a league where there’s two utility spots. Getting the auction money to pay down his contract this year helps quite a bit too.

While I don’t see anything really wrong with getting Carlos Santana, he’s quite good. I’d rather have Choo and Keuchel. I get that the Ironmen are running into a bit of a roster crunch of sorts and there’s definitely reasons to bail on these two players, I think the return is just as risky and doesn’t quite have the value going forward that you would normally see. I think the Lott brother walk away with a win here.

 

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

I guess I didn’t get to shit on Keith’s previous trade so I’ll just get this one.  Nah, actually I like this trade for both teams.  $47 Keuchel isn’t a great price but it’s fine compared to what the Auction might yield, and it’s not like you’re ever committed to keeping someone for more than 1 year.  At the very least he’ll get innings and be someone you can throw in your lineup each week.  Bailey needed  a 3b so giving up Choo for Santana instead of relying on Auction seems wise. Choo for Santana straight up seems fine, so if Bailey had to throw in a pitcher he wasn’t keeping or garnering much trade interest, I can see why he did it.

Trade feels needs for both teams and presumably (outside of injury) everyone here gets kept which means… the auction just got that much weaker…. AGAIN.

 

Trade: Capital City | Evil Otters

80 grade smile
Capital City Ironmen trades away Kurt Suzuki $9 Evil Otters trades away 2019 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Evil Otters) 3 Auction Dollars Jordan’s thoughts: Kurt Suzuki is okay. A fourth round draft pick isn’t worth anything until its on the clock. 3 auction dollars is enough grease to make some trade work. All three pieces in the same deal in this direction does not make a whole lot of sense. How does a conversation start when asking or selling a Kurt Suzuki? Buyer: I need a catcher. Seller: (looks up) (looks down) (looks up) uh I have Kurt Suzuki available I guess. Buyer: Great I’ll offer a 4th round draft pick, deal?! Seller: Well a 4th round pick isn’t really worth anythi…(interuppted) Buyer: And 3 auction dollars! Seller: … deal? /scene I feel like the guy who just watched this scene. What the fuck did I just spend my time doing?
Hustle’s Toxic $.02 : I dislike this trade more for Kyle than I like it for Bailey. To be clear a 4th round pick and $3 is not a haul that Kyle will regret giving up. That being said, Suzuki’s price next year is $9 which seems unkeepable to me to begin with. He’s probably the backup catcher on his own real life team. So investing $12 and a pick in a backup catcher seems like an overpay. Similar poopish catchers will be available in the auction for under $5 and if committed to improving catcher, it’s not hard to find guys on the waiver wire to give you the same minimal average production. I see the benefit of having both catchers on one team (Kyle already has Yan Gomes), but I wouldn’t pay for that luxury for a guy like Suzuki. If Gomes’ backup was a young guy with offensive upside who you could pencil in as their future guy, then maybe. But Suzuki is 35. I’d roll the dice on getting someone for free if I’m not getting a catcher with offensive upside.

Trade: Capital City Income| Uncreative Team Name

Capital City Income trades away
Anderson Alexander Tejeda
Hudson Potts

TBD trades away
Bryse Wilson
Nick Solak
1 Auction Dollar

Bryse Wilson throws a baseball.

Jordan’s Thoughts: Oh boy! A prospect trade. I have heard of some of these guys. First off I was not patient enough to figure out how to find A A Tejada on FanGraphs and I’m perfectly fine ignoring him. Hudson Potts just based on looking at his minor league record does not strike me as anything interesting other than he’s a former first round pick and they tend to get more chances to thrive.

Nick Solak is hitting homers and showing ability to dephicer a strike zone at the double-A level. That’s likeable. Bryse Wilson also looks pretty promising. He’s on the cusp of breaking through, but he’s in an organization full of starting pitchers and could end up spending more time than you want in a bullpen. Either way he’s a major leaguer with options. 

The one auction dollar switching sides is clearly the biggest piece moving here. Two top teams slide money across the table is definitely interesting.

Hustle’s toxic $.02: Most surprising part of this deal was that Jordan has heard of some of these names.  I like this trade more for the Income’s here.  You kinda hope Tejada turns into Solak, so why wouldn’t you just rather have Solak? Especially when Tejada is a much less given to stick at 2nd. 

Potts vs Wilson seems more reasonable.  Bailey continues to build an army of near major league ready arms by adding Wilson to Wdener and Quantrill.  You pretty much get a player for 2 years for free if they are cost controlled, so its very easy to see some value come through near major league ready pitching, even if there’s limited upside. Potts has been gaining some hype, but to me the bar for being a good 3b is a lot higher than it use to be. My intuition tells me TBD will trade Potts within a year.