Trade: Capital City Ironmen | Senior Squids

Capital City Ironmen trades away

  • Santana, Danny

Senior Squids trades away

  • Pederson, Joc
Senior Squids trades away

  • Moustakas, Mike

Capital City Ironmen trades away

  • Thomas, Alek

Jordan’s Thoughts

I find it pretty amusing that there’s back to back 1 for 1 deals between the same two teams. But, it happened. First, Danny Santana has broken all projections and just continues to prove the old adage that you can’t predict baseball. He’s only 28 years old somehow and probably pretty valuable.

Projection systems still believe a huge regression is coming and while he’s still going to be valuable as a .310-.330 wOBA player, its not likely he keeps up the .388 pace. Which is probably why Bailey traded him off for Joc who is having a good year with a .344 wOBA and is projected to improve the rest of the way. Its not a clear win for Bailey, but I’m leaning that way.

The other deal is the more peculiar one. Alek Thomas is a 50 FV prospect with an ETA 2022. 60 Hit, 40 game power… He is in the top 100 and hitting the ball in A ball. All seems fine. He’s a good prospect, probably worth having.

What’s also worth having is a 800 point hitter who costs less than $30. That’s what 30 year old Mike Moustakas is. Moustakas has consistently been good for a while now, while he does get streaky (plays hurt). The floor is high, consistent, and the ceiling is actually still fairly high. His keeper value is cheap and I just don’t get it. Alek Thomas needs to be really good three-four years from now for this to make sense. If Thomas is acquired to be a bullet to shoot into a trade for next year, I’d just rather have Moustakas next year.

I guess Thomas will be 27 in 2027, so that fits the window.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Marshall Law

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (JobuNeedsARefill)

Marshall Law trades away

  • Myers, Wil

Jordan’s Thoughts

Wil Myers was once traded for Bryce Harper. Now he’s a throw away deal for a useless draft pick. Wil Myers still squares up balls, but the exit velocity is below average. I think Wil Myers is probably what he is, is best asset to any team now is that he qualifies for most positions. Solid depth piece. Marshall Law won’t miss him, but didn’t gain much for giving him away.

 

Trade: Marshall Law | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Marshall Law trades away

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • Corbin Martin (RIP)
  • 2020 4th Round Pick

BAILEY’s Thoughts

Simply by getting something for a $59 Jake Arrieta, I will congratulate Marshall Law as the winner of this trade.

I had personally been interested in Arrieta as a depth piece, but I just couldn’t muster up much of an offer. He’s not particularly good anymore (4.95 FIP), he’s too expensive to keep or re-trade, and his playoff match-ups aren’t even favorable (@ CIN, vs. BOS and ATL). But still, he logs innings and if he’s your 9th or 10th starting pitcher, which he is for HLR, then he’s fine as a rental that you just hope you never really have to use and then just cut when the time comes. HLR is savvy enough picking up prospects that the 4th rounder doesn’t matter and Corbin Martin is out with Tommy John, so he’s going to miss all of 2020 and probably the early part of 2021. Maybe there’s a rotation spot for him when he returns, maybe not. Maybe he returns without any diminished skills, maybe not.

I don’t think Marshall Law was going to do better than this. It’s splitting hairs, maybe, because perhaps someone offers a non-broken prospect that you think is more interesting.

The most interesting part of this trade is what Arrieta goes for at auction after he’s inevitably cut, and that really has nothing to do with the trade. With the rule changes, the auction should be deeper than in prior years. But owners simply don’t drop good starting pitchers. So as usual, there should be a bunch of teams clamoring for pitching. Is Arrieta a $35-40 pitcher at auction simply because teams need arms and have too much cash to spend? It wouldn’t surprise me.

Trade: Organized Chaos | JobuNeedsARefill

Organized Chaos trades away

  • SP Tyler Mahle ($5.50)
  • SP Nick Neidert

JobuNeedsARefill trades away

  • 2021 3rd Round Pick
  • RF Kyle Lewis
  • CF Mickey Moniak

BAILEY’s Thoughts

This is an interesting deal for both teams. For Jobu, I think getting $7-to-keep Tyler Mahle is a nice, cheap flier for 2020 and beyond. Mahle is currently averaging 25.14 points per start which, last time I checked, was a tick above average. As has been beaten into all of our heads, inexpensive average or better — sometimes even slightly below average — starters are real commodities. So adding Mahle, in the wise words of Jordan Gillis, “seems fine.”

Nick Neidert is, as I told Organized Chaos when he was offering him to me repeatedly, pretty much nothing. He’s been surpassed in the Marlins system by a half dozen other pitchers and unless he was getting called up tomorrow, I wouldn’t personally want to roster him. Moving on…

Mickey Moniak and Kyle Lewis are relics of the 2016 MLB Draft. Both have failed to live up to the hype, but they seem to maybe, possibly, hopefully be turning a corner this year. Moniak has a 121 WRC at AA this year, so yay, he’s an above average hitter in the minors for the first time since 2016. Kyle Lewis, who somehow is 24 years old already, has a 117 WRC+ at AA. Hooray, he’s an above average hitter for the first time since 2017. I mean… neither guy is doing anything spectacular and I’m not sure either is even a top 200 prospect at this point. But they have prospect pedigree and what not, so maybe they become something. With Lewis, he also has the bonus of being a Seattle Mariner prospect, so when Senior Squids decides to host his next fire sale and rebuild the rebuild of his rebuild, you can maybe flip Lewis to him for a cost controlled stud like Matt Chapman or something. Oh man, I’m gonna be blacklisted again.

Overall, my slightly respectful but unapologetic opinion is that this is a fair swap for both teams.

Trade: TBD | The Foundation

TBD trades away

  • Chirinos, Robinson

The Foundation trades away

  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Hustle Loyalty Respect)
  • 2021 Draft Pick, Round 4 (The Foundation)

Haddy’s Thoughts

The Foundation needed catching help badly, and gets a guy who will produce at or about replacement level rates but plays quite a bit for a catcher.  Chirinos is currently 8th in PAs this year.  His production is mediocre, but he’ll pop a big game from time to time.  His redeeming value is that he plays, and in a lineup that turns over.

TBD has Gary Sanchez and James McCann, making Chirinos expendable.  At 35, Chirinos likely doesn’t have a long future left and TBD nailed down a couple future assets that they will flip for something else down the road, either as a pick or a prospect they draft and cultivate.  With the 2020 #2 pick likely being somewhere in the 24-25 range, TBD should be able to find a nice player the rest of missed.

I like this trade for both sides as a need for future value play.

Trade Hustle Loyalty Respect | Capital City Ironmen

Hustle Loyalty Respect🏃🤝✊trades away

  • Stammen, Craig $5.50
  • $3 Auction Cash

Capital City Ironmen trades away

  • Brebbia, John $5.50
  • $3 Auction Cash

Jordan’s Thoughts

Craig Stammen has been an average reliever for the Padres this year. He was recently picked up from the free agent waiver wire this morning. With his high keeper price tag, and the low ceiling value of relievers. I think Stammen is just plugging a hole here.

John Brebbia has been an average reliever for the Cardinals this year. He was recently picked up from the free agent waiver wire this morning. With his high keeper price tag, and the low ceiling value of relievers. I think Brebbia is just plugging a hole here.

The $3 swaps of auction cash likely balances out before the auction. I think both sides plugged holes they felt needing plugging and it cost them nothing. I am certain the trade gave both +5 in the relationship experience bar. That could be valuable soon!

Trade: Who’s Your Haddy? | Marshall Law

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Adams, Jordyn (prospect)
  • Andújar, Miguel $7.03

Marshall Law trades away

  • Ornelas, Tirso (prospect)
  • Torres, Jhon (prospect)
  • Murphy, Daniel $24

Hustle’s TOXICO $.02

OK, I’ll go first this time. Haddy is clearly playing for 2020 (or 2021 if I’m being respectful and non apologetic), so I don’t really get the thrill of Murphy. Maybe he flips him, maybe he keeps him. Murphy is a former HLR Legend, as we all know, and after a slow start to the year, he’s been quite good in recent months. I’m not sure his thumb is all the way healed, which makes his last few months even more impressive.  Murphy at $26 next year as a 35 year old seems OK, but with more injuries piling up, it’s very easy to see him as a frustrating asset moving forward. $26 isn’t a lot, and Andjuar has his flaws (lack of walks and potential playing time), but I think I rather take my shot on the youngster with the age and salary on his side.

All the prospects involved in this deal have taken a value hit from beginning of season until now. Adams is the rawest/athletic of the bunch, so his struggles this year seem least problematic.  Adams for Tirso seems fine and fair as is, not a huge difference between the two at the moment. Both are expected to add more power over the years and seem like solid “buy lows”, so that aspect of the deal seems like a challenge trade for both teams here.  Jhon Torres was a pop up prospect last year who excelled in Rookie ball and has done nothing this year.  He’s the closest of the 3 to being nothing, and he’s sprinting to that at the moment.

Jordan’s thoughts

I debated reading Hustle’s take first, just to figure out who these prospects are. But, because of comments like this:

I feel like I have set the bar so very high. To course correct, I’ll mail this one in. It seems like people in this trade, swapped assets with each other that they were over and tired of looking at.

So, who wins the trade? Well both of them do of course because they got to hang out and talk shop for a solid relationship building minute and get something done.

Trade: Marshall Law | TBD

Marshall Law trades away

  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Marshall Law)
  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Marshall Law)

TBD trades away

  • Freeland, Kyle $5

Jordan’s thoughts

So last year Kyle Freeland was really good. Like really really good. This year he has been bad enough to get demoted back to the minor leagues. Last year he limited HR/9 to 0.76, and this year its at 2.43. That’s really bad. Seems a little fluky, but it’s a problem. His walk rate is up too, but this seems all fixable.

These are the kinds of deals I love seeing teams like Marshall Law making. You see an asset available. He’s covered in mud. Value might be low, might not ever recover. But, the best prospect is a young player who has already had success the majors in my opinion. Even if Freeland is just bad for the rest of time, two draft picks costs nothing to take a chance at potentially getting a above average starting pitcher.

For TBD, you like getting draft picks for players that are potential cuts. When you’re on top of the standings, the roster crunch doesn’t allow you to sit on players who have faded. So getting some value from a team that likely isn’t a threat to you this year is a win win.

 

Hustle’s Toxico $.02

Going to try and do that thing where I don’t read the review above first.

Trade Seems Fine (TM). It’s not super exciting for either party, which means it’s a reasonable trade.  I would never trade a bunch for a non exciting Rockies pitcher, but this wasn’t a bunch. The Rockies thought Kyle Freeland was so bad, even by their standards, that he had to go down to AAA after a pretty stellar 2018.  In AAA, Freeland has continued to be bad.  I think one pick should probably have been enough to get this done, but this is nitpicking.  If I’m throwing darts at back end starters, I rather use just one pick or move or move on to a different starter. I doubt there was a bidding war for Freeland, and I doubt TBD doesn’t jump on the opportunity to acquire a free pick and pick up a new green flag guy.  If Marshall is optimistic on Freeland more than just a dart throw, then adding in a low end pick seems more than fine to do. If Freeland turns it around, he seems like a great under $10 pitcher keep.  Either way, I like this trade for both teams.

AT THIS POINT, I HAVE DECIDED TO READ JORDAN’S REVIEW.

I like Jordan’s review better than mine. He used more numbers.  Also, I noticed I wrote “toxico” instead of “toxic”.  I kind of like toxico more now.  Let me know your thoughts.

 

Trade: Organized Chaos | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Organized Chaos trades away:

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away:

  • 1B Grant Lavigne
  • SP Lucas Sims ($5.50)
  • 2020 3rd Round Pick

BAILEY’s Thoughts

If I had to bet money on who in this league is the biggest “Rick Porcello fan,” I’d put money on myself. Yet… despite Porcello being relentlessly offered to everyone, I never pulled the trigger. And I’m okay with it.

Porcello’s been a good, if not great, pitcher throughout his career who offers a solid, boring floor and some occasional clunkers. He’s durable and reliable. This year there have been more clunkers than normal, but at least one (the stupid London) game you can safely disregard. Going forward, I expect Porcello to be a decent depth starter that usually won’t kill you. In this league, my problem is his salary for what he is. If there weren’t salaries, his value goes up, in my opinion. But because there are and he’s $25 ($27 to keep, minimum)… I find him in a weird gray area of keepable players. You could keep him. But I wouldn’t, personally. Those clunkers I just mentioned have been going up in frequency and the floor seems to be getting lower and lower, which is all fine because it’s still a fairly safe floor, but Porcello at $27 isn’t all that different from a bunch of $10 or less dart throws. I suspect that — and what I’ve got to say, was a crazy high asking price — is what made this trade take so long to finally happen. Another thing about Porcello: there’s great temptation to sit him in tough match-ups, but he’s a pretty good pitcher overall, so sometimes he does really well in those games. He’s good to randomly dominate the Yankees on your bench once a year. Which does you zero good and is really frustrating.

In the end, Swinson got, for starters, basically a fringe top-150 prospect in Grant Lavigne, who I feel like falls outside the top-200 in most circles if not for the prospect of playing home games in Coors Field. I haven’t paid much attention to him, but I believe Hustle offered him to me recently, and one thing I think I know about Hustle is this: he’s really good at finding prospects (“he’s the single greatest prospector I’ve ever played with, hands down, no exceptions” – Steve Fernsler), but if he offers you one, he’s either getting something awesome in return or feels comfortable replacing the guy with someone else off waivers. I think the latter is the case here. Lavigne’s a teenage 1Bman-only prospect that beasted last year but has underwhelmed this year over a larger sample. So basically, the upside isn’t there and the wait time is too long for a guy that plays a position that’s super easy to fill, so this trade shuttles him off with profit and lets Hustle add a better lottery ticket off waivers. Seems fine!

So in addition to Lavigne, there’s Lucas Sims, who was once a top prospect but sort of fell off the map, then reappeared this year in Cincinnati. He had one good start in May and then… vanished. I mean, not vanished. He’s alive and pitches. But it’s in the minors, where he’s got a 1.09 HR/9. He’s also not cost controlled, so he’s $7 to keep right now, which really is fine. If he was cost controlled he’d be $1 instead and the $6 is pretty irrelevant. But still. That makes Sims a tad less valuable. Cost control is life.

And finally, there’s a third round pick which… okay, cool. Whatever.

In the end, this trade is weird to me as someone who received a ton of Porcello offers over the months. This deal is Porcello for Lavigne in my eyes, which is… well, seems like a way lower asking price than I ever recall seeing. Maybe I’m just not high enough on Sims and don’t care enough about draft picks (I recently traded a first rounder for Andrelton Simmons and legitimately have no idea why, but someone else actually traded a pick for a relief pitcher so I don’t feel as bad about that anymore). And again, if one owner maybe, possibly thinks they can pick a better prospect up off waivers tomorrow in Lavigne… what’s that say about the haul?

Anyway, trade is obviously fine overall. I’d rather have HLR’s side here even if cutting Porcello at year’s end, but I at least like knowing that Coach shopped and shopped and presumably landed here, on a deal he likes.

Trade: TBD | Who’s Your Haddy?

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away:

  • RP Kirby Yates $2

TBD trades away:

  • 2020 3rd Round Pick

BAILEY’s Thoughts

This is pretty great for Haddy. Relievers are meant to be either streamed or paid totally unnecessary amounts of money at auction. It is their only destiny. Even though Kirby Yates is one of the best ones, still, he’s not worth very much, as reflected here. His week to week impact is minimal and his edge over replacement at his position, plus the sheer volume of relievers available, make him just not that big a deal. Getting a 3rd round pick feels like a steal for Haddy. It also feels like way more than he got for Buster Posey. #RespectfulButUnapologetic

For TBD, this is a funny flex move. Josh and Joe (mostly Josh, I think; he told me Joe doesn’t know very much about prospects so he’s the one that does most of the pick-ups there. Just a fun trivia nugget) are so good at picking up prospects off waivers that they punted a 3rd round pick for a bullpen piece. It’s bad, but it also won’t matter for them at all. Their team, led by cost controlled stud Matt Chapman, is stacked. A mid-round pick is nothing.