Jordan’s thoughts: Squids trades here, two top 200 prospects for an expensive 1B that needs a bounce-back. Hosmer went from Kansas City to San Diego and got worse. He was already borderline average or worse. Perhaps Squids noticed the trend that is Hosmer’s roller coaster career:
2011 – 113 wRC+
2012 – 80 wRC+
2013 – 120 wRC+
2014 – 98 wRC+
2015 – 124 wRC+
2016 – 102 wRC+
2017 – 135 wRC+
2018 – 95 wRC+
2019 – ???
Steamer currently says 110. If it is 110, its okay. If he’s back to 120 or 130 its pretty good. The prospects are fine, but easily replaceable. I wouldn’t personally bet on Hosmer bouncing back in 2019 in a way that makes this an easy keep. But, I’m fine with other people doing so. I’m more fine selling him for two prospects that are easy to require like punting a Hosmer.
Andrew’s thoughts: I’m 100% out on Eric Hosmer as a fantasy asset. He’s only 29 so maybe he FIGURES IT OUT, but this dude has a 109 WRC+ with more than 5,000 career plate appearances. He hits the ball on the ground too much, offers zero year over year consistency (unless you buy into the “every other year he’s good” thing), and plays 1B, a position where you really need a guy that can mash. To me, Hosmer’s draw is that he plays every day. That’s it. That’s not the kind of player I’m into.
Having said that, Evan White and Franklin Perez don’t seem like much to me and if Hosmer gets plopped back into auction, $32 is probably the ballpark for what he gets paid. I wouldn’t want to pay him that, but if the pool is garbage, you may have to. A wise man once told me that the auction will be a blood bath.
I guess I don’t see a definite winner here, really. Squids paid a little to lock up a depth piece with I suppose some semblance of upside (Hosmer’s .376 wOBA in 2017 was a thing that happened, after all) in exchange for two lotto tickets. I’m sure WBFD saw all the flaws in Hosmer’s game and the salary and just said, screw it, I’ll take these two prospects.
Having said all that, this deal is available to both teams the first week of February, right? Like, Squids could have saved these two bullets to see if something better comes along and WBFD could’ve held on to see if perhaps Hosmer gets traded to the Rockies, yes? Eh, whatever.
Jordan’s thoughts: Ketel Marte is projected to be a ~800 point 2B/SS with a 1.27 PPPA. That’s pretty great. He’s only $9, he’s a steal. Jon Schoop plays the same positions, has a 1.24 PPPA. So they’re the same. He costs $8 more. So..ummm…yeah. Niko Goodrum was trashed on the podcast enough, but I’ll just say that finding a 1 PPPA player is basically replacement level. Sure he plays a lot and can fit into a few positions, there’s some value there. Not much.
Jeter Downs is a 45+ rated prospect that was ranked 7th in the Reds organization. Okay.
Rich Hill for under $20 is a nice value pitcher. He’s projected for something like 800-900 points. Now I realize he’s not without risk. But, all pitchers have built in risk. Even if you get just 10-15 Rich Hill starts, he’s easily worth $19.
This trade confuses me. In a vacuum I love this trade for The Process. In the context of these teams with their current situation…well The Process traded away spare parts that had little or no value for two valuable pieces.
For Senior Squids, he’s won some trades recently, this one baffles me.
Andrew’s thoughts: If I were just ranking the individual players in this trade, including salaries and all, for me it’d go: Marte, Hill, Schoop, Goodrum, Downs. If not for his amazing 2017 that now looks flukey, I’d bump Schoop down below Goodrum.
I guess what I’m saying is, I like this for The Process. I really like Ketel Marte for some reason I can’t put my finger on. Take the projections with a grain of salt if you must, but Steamer has Marte scoring 165.4 more points than Goodrum next year. And I’m kinda buying that, actually. I get that Goodrum is a few bucks cheaper and has three extra positions, but I’d prefer points over positions. Marte was at one time a pretty legitimate prospect. There’s some pedigree here. Goodrum just sort of came from nowhere. Other than a pretty good hard hit rate, I see nothing in Goodrum’s profile that suggests to me he’s anything more than a guy who may play a lot and accumulate stats inefficiently. A utility guy, basically. Oh, and Marte’s hard hit rate was only 0.6% lower than Goodrum’s, so it’s not like there’s even a gap in that one specific data point.
Dick Mountain, meanwhile, is old and fragile and risky, but he’s good as long as he pitches. His skills aren’t in question and if he gives you another 130 inning season for $19, you should be very happy. I’d rather gamble on his health than gamble on Schoop actually being any good, which I think is very much up for debate considering every year of his career sans 2017.
Jordan’s thoughts: Squids punches the ticket on three prospects who are or were recently on top 100 lists. The shine on Alcantara, Lewis and Jones is not as bright as it once was, but likely it is not all gone either.
In return, he gets two fairly priced starters. Both players are currently MLB free agents so there is definitely more than a healthy dose of uncertainty. In a vacuum I really enjoy this trade for Squids. You trade three prospects who might be useful, might not be, and turn them into players you should be able to bank on holding down 3B and C for you.
If you’re punting your season before Christmas like WBFD here, I guess tossing away two guys for three prospects is fine. I don’t love it, but its fine.
Andrew’s thoughts: I like this one for the Squids.
Neither Mike Moustakas or Wilson Ramos are super exciting players but they’re the kind of players contending teams need and frankly, as cheap as they are, I’m not sure why WBFD didn’t just hang onto them. I can’t imagine buying better players for better salary at auction, and this trifecta of prospects strike me as guys that you hope develop into depth pieces rather than building blocks.
I mean, I get that WBFD is rebuilding. But this isn’t a move that slashes a ton of salary. Neither Moustakas or Ramos were in position to be cuts. They weren’t “take whatever I can get” salary dumps. Like, if you re-invest the $29 into a single player at auction, what is that likely to buy you? Adam Jones? Curtis Granderson went for $27 last year. Is a $29 Steven Matz plus these three prospects better than Moustakas and Ramos? Maybe! I don’t really know. These prospects just don’t excite me enough to want to dump proven major league talent for them and then have to gamble on getting decent replacement talent at auction.
Jordan’s thoughts: Prospect for prospect trades are always mildly interesting. Sure, some are better than others, but we’re basically trading guys positioned on opinion lists for each other. We don’t get to scout or know anything more about these players than the writers who are interpreting what they see, or worse, what other people say they are seeing.
That being said, Luis Patino according to the hive-mind at FanGraphs.com was ranked 60th on the prospect list at one point. He’s a 50 FV prospect with a high risk and estimated 2023 debut. I understand that since that ranking his stock has improved. Okay. He is listed at 6’0 150 lb. I get called quite skinny, and I’m 5’4 145lb. Yeesh.
Pache is ranked higher on the list I have. Again probably outdated. 60 FV, 18th on the top 100. Without digging deeper, perhaps his stock is high because of defensive value. While we don’t get points for defense, we do get points for players that play and typically great defenders get lots of chances to learn how to hit.
Gavin Lux has been traded for a second time and he’s still a 45 FV prospect who apparently is climbing some charts. He hit well in AA last year.
Everyone wins this trade because trades are fun.
Andrew’s thoughts: I’m not prepared to argue either side of this trade is better than the other, so good for both teams. I think Cristian Pache is probably the highest “ranked” guy, but all the scouting reports I’ve read suggest to me that he’s all defense and speed and maybe you’re lucky if he’s Kevin Pillar or Kevin Kiermaier, well, that’s not particularly relevant to our scoring. But if he can hit at even a league average level for centerfield, well, at zero cost, maybe that’s useful.
Patino, meanwhile, just seems forever away. Remember Anderson Espinoza from a few years back? He was the next Pedro Martinez until he got hurt and fell off the face of the planet. Personally, I tend to devalue pitching prospects with long lead times. This seems to me like Long Ball is betting on Patino climbing prospect lists so that he can flip him for something better.
But whatever. This trade seems fine to me overall.
Andrew’s thoughts: I’m sorry Keith, but I don’t have a whole lot nice to say about this one. Hunter Renfroe has a ton of raw power and is $13 cheaper, but he’s got a sub-.300 OBP in almost 1,000 career plate appearances. He seems like a guy that only has a full time gig because the Padres don’t have any better option. In this league, I like him as more of a rotating UT2 guy or a back-up outfielder and wouldn’t feel great rolling him out as a daily starter.
I thought WTFS’ offense was in trouble after trading for Madison Bumgarner and I think this just makes it worse. According to Steamer, this is something like a 150 point downgrade for WTFS.
I like this trade for the Squids.
Jordan’s thoughts: I think there is some potential that Renfroe figures things out and ends up being pretty great. I see some shine potential. For that I don’t mind the trade for WTFS. I tend to agree with Bailey on all accounts. Clearly this is a great trade for Squids. The problem with low OBP guys in our league though is that they’re really boon or bust and can really sink weeks for you.
I’ll give this deal an “I love it” to the Squids…and for We Talk Fantasy Sports “I get it, but meh” ratings.
Andrew’s thoughts: I love this trade for Marshall Law so, so much. It reminds me of the real-life Nationals/Rays/Padres trade for Trea Turner, where the Nats basically crashed a trade between the Rays and Padres and came away with the most appealing talent. Marshall gave up what I see as four lukewarm assets (Taveras seems like a low power guy whose speed doesn’t matter as much in our scoring; the other three pieces are pure lotto tickets) to get back two young, cheap impact pieces in Nimmo and Winker and a decent flier on Lamet, who was solid in 2017 before requiring Tommy John. Honestly, I’d rather have Nimmo or Winker alone than Bumgarner at $60 to keep or the package WBFD received.
For WBFD though, I get it. At $60, Bumgarner was a very likely cut as we’ve seen his skills and health begin to descend, and now there are even rumors he may be traded out of his hugely favorable home park. Steamer projections have Bumgarner as the 17th highest scoring pitcher for 2019, but that honestly seems a little rich to me. I’m just a little surprised he didn’t get the Nimmo/Winker package here. But if you’re going to cut a guy anyway, getting four zero-cost pieces like this is clearly better long-term.
And as for We Talk Fantasy Sports, well, I applaud the continued aggressive addition to try and compete in 2019. First it was Corey Kluber, then Dallas Keuchel, now Bumgarner. Still, while their pitching is very, very much improved, I look at that offense and wonder if it can possibly keep up. Losing Nimmo and Winker gives them two pretty big starting hitting holes, in my opinion, and Bumgarner might need to be prime Mad-Bum just to offset that.
Jordan’s thoughts: My goal here is to be the creme filling in this turd sandwich of a trade review. Obviously I have a hard on for Jesse Winker who I drafted with my first round pick back in our first minor league draft. He seems good now and the Reds let Billy Hamilton go.
I agree that projections have soured on Madison Bumgarner and that is not completely hard to understand. However, I’ll disagree with with figurative “buns” and say that Bumgarner at $60 is more than fair and particularly attractive. I think if you’re on top and have a salary crunch, perhaps you have a different perspective on market value.
I love the trade for Marshall Law and We Talk Fantasy Sports here. Marshall Law showing how a rebuild in this league should work. You build a core with current rising talent vs sacking a whole number of seasons for a wish and a hope. Which is what I think the WBFDs has done here. I don’t mind turning MadBum into a bunch of pieces. But the draft picks aren’t helping you soon, and the prospects are okay. Perhaps you get a good pitcher and a decent outfielder out of it in a season or two and perhaps those prospects turn into something too. But, odds are actually against you.
I think with any game you want to position yourself to win and a key step is identifying your win condition(s). WTFS appears to have found theirs with identifying needing a front line starter to help sway weeks in a head-to-head format. It works. ML identified needing to acquire useful assets while still acquiring points. Say these guys blossom, and you’re a piece or two away, they have assets they could push the chips in. It can work. WBFD identified needing to wait another three years. Has that worked ever?
Hustle’s Toxic $0.02: Well this was a super fun trade. I think in all my years of playing fantasy sports I’ve seen very few if any other legit three way trades. So for that, I applaud the ability to pull it off. I am truly inspired.
For WFBD: I think Gaut did OK here if you subscribe to the notion that Bumgarner is in a big decline. Streamer projects a near 4 ERA, FIP, and XFIP for Bumgarner in 2019 which makes a $60 investment in that subpar to say the least. If Bumgarner gets traded those numbers would have to be worse, unless its to the Astros. If Bumgarner is the guy he is projected to be, then getting a couple pieces for him seems fine. Gaut will have $60 to spend on Mike Leake and Mike Leake accessories in the auction as well as a couple neat picks. I’m not a fan of Taveras (as I stated in the first Taveras deal this offseason), seems like a long shot in being better than a replacement level OF here. I do think I like Bukauskas better than most so thats cool too. Getting some assets for a guy who should be borderline be cut based on performance seems like a good idea. If Bumgarner bounces back, Gaut may wonder if he could have gotten a bit more.
For WTFS: As Bailey stated, Keith’s rotation is much improved. Even if Bumgarner isn’t peak he’s still startable almost every time out. The team’s rotation went from arguably worst to above average through a course of trades this offseason, so that is indeed commendable. The offense is a work in progress and will be more difficult to fill after giving away two cheap promising OFers. Choo and Blackmon are nice OFers to have, but after that it kinda falls off. 1b, 3b, one OF and 2 UTIL spots have to be occupied by Sano, Shaw, Desmond, Happ, Calhoun, I’m not sure who the next best hitter is after these 5. Having these guys as starters in your lineup seems incredibly risky since 4/5 of them were a minus at their position last year. Keith will have to find someway to supplant this either by trade or auction. This team at least had a direction now and with proper attention could push for a playoff spot.
For ML: There’s a lot to like here. Winker could potentially be the best asset in the whole trade. as a $3 cost controlled OF batting near the top of the Reds lineup. If las year is any indication he’s a very solid OF to have and if his power trends up he’s potentially a beast. I think Nimmo was obviously tremendously underrated going into last season and was one of the best pickups of the year, but I think he could be a tad overrated in 2019. That being said, he seems like he has the floor of being perfectly acceptable OF depth, which is valuable. I think getting the Lamet flier is the perfect thing a rebuilding team should be doing, ad as a 3rd piece of a deal, seems great. I think these 3 pieces are probably better than a 1/2 rounder and Bukauskas, not a guarantee, but I love the odds.
Senior Squids trades away
SP Kyle Wright
SP Michel Baez
Andrew’s thoughts: It wasn’t that long ago that Kyle Wright and Michael Baez were the centerpiece acquisitions of Senior Squids’ 2018 teardown. Now here they are, flipped for A.J. Pollock in a somewhat surprising win-now move.
I like this move for the Diabeetuses. I’m not necessarily a big fan of Kyle Wright or Michel Baez, but they’re pitchers and will be cheap, ergo inherent value. Wright has a lot of rotation competition in Atlanta and Baez has some pretty serious reliever risk. But still, as pitching prospects go, these are good ones. Also, I’m pretty sure when Gaut got around to participating in cuts, Pollock was going to get the axe.
Here are Pollock’s net points the last five seasons, working from 2018 back: 630.4, 644.8, 61.3, 1070.5, 437.6. In a vacuum, I really like Pollock as a player and asset in this league. I do. But he hasn’t cracked 650 points in four of the last five years and was last a fantasy star in 2015. That was actually the only year he was ever a fantasy star. He’s great on a rate basis, but he’s such an abnormally high injury risk and you have to wonder if the so-so 2018 line was the humidor in Arizona or the combination of age and wear and tear. Maybe he signs in Cincinnati and has one more 1,000+ point year in the tank, or maybe Adam Jones nets more points than him again over a full season simply because Pollock can’t stay on the field. Who knows? For $48 and two pretty valuable pitching prospects, I think I’d really want to gamble on a safer player. I do like that another team is making moves that help right now though.
Hustle’s Toxic $0.02: AJ Pollock is a good useful OF in our format, not elite, but good. The fact that Arizona had a humidor last year means the chances of Pollock signing with a less desirable ballpark than his current is lower than it would have been the previous year.
For WFBD, this is clearly a good move. Moving away an expensive non elite OF for 2 established name pitching prospects are a big boost for his farm. I think scouts have soured on Baez’s ability to remain a starter, so I don’t hate moving him. Wright is currently blocked by a ton of ATL pitchers, but I personally don’t care about players who are blocked, I care about good players. If Kyle Wright is a good player, he will find a way to starts whether on the Braves or elsewhere. Furthermore, the recent rule changes makes prospects a little less risky because you can still maintain a $0 year if a guy comes up and does very little, which seems to be what Kyle Wright is in line for in 2019. Gaut just needs one of these guys to be an average starter for this trade to give him some value, and a chance to really get something if both do or either guy becomes a plus starter.
For Squids, he has the budget and adding a good player will certainly help his chances for this year. With Honeywell and Whitley in his farm, he probably thinks these guy were expendable, and I don’t disagree that they are/should be. I’m not sure Pollock is the guy you want to cash in for, but I certainly leave open the possibility that he could be. Everyone evaluates players differently.
At the very least this was an inspiring trade. The only concern I have is how much more participation Gaut has left allocated for the season.
Andrew’s thoughts: OK everyone, shut up and look at me.
Welcome to another Dynasty Grinders trade review. This trade has two players in it. One is decent, one is not. People acquired them and they are in this trade now. I believe that after this review is over, this trade will be forgotten. Why I am even reviewing this trade is beyond me.
I also think it’s pointless for a human to review these trades when they can just log into Fantrax and do them.
Anyway, please do not misinterpret the fact that I am reviewing this trade as genuine interest in this trade and attempt to discuss it with me further. End of review.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
I like this trade more for the Trumpas and maybe even the Loompas. Odublel isn’t some game changing piece, but a useful CF player who will get a lot of PAs. He’s also cheap to keep. Shed long seems fine, but not on the Hustle Media Top 100 list. I think I’ve heard he’s probably a utility guy. Not a big loss, but rather have the affordable major leaguer. If you’re high on this particular prospect, than the trade makes a lot of sense for The Process, which has lost Trust.