Trade: Rocky Mtn Oysters | Preseason Double Stuffs

Preseason Double Stuffs sends: 2B Rougned Odor ($29)
Rocky Mtn Oysters send: LF/CF/RF Taylor Trammell

Andrew’s Thoughts: I’m still not a Rougned Odor fan. Too much variance. He seems to either make an out, usually by strike out, or hit a home run, which is a little more appealing in a 5×5 roto league than a H2H league. Worse, Odor has one of the most punchable faces in all of baseball. I’m firmly #TeamBautista. Still, this makes sense for Dusty, who gave up a prospect that’s like 2-3 years from scoring him points for a bench guy that he can just as easily cut in the offseason when he costs $31 (or more if someone slaps greed on him). I mean, yeah, Odor never walks so he has no real floor, but you could do way worse than a 30+ HR threat as a back-up.

For the Double Stuffs, this could be seen as flipping a $15 DJ LeMahieu for a toolsy outfield prospect that has just now started to sneak onto top-100 lists but, again, is a ways off. Looking at it that way is probably demoralizing though. Instead, just look at this transaction by itself and it’s fine. Because again, I’m cutting a $30+ Odor after the season. I imagine PDS was too. Odor has upside but that cost offsets pretty much all of it.

As for Trammell, well, I’m pretty sure I was baffled when Dusty paid budget money to move up and take him in our minor league draft. But I stand corrected. He is now a guy whose name appears on lists. And guess what? Getting your name on lists means you have trade value. I can’t find record of ever doubting Trammell here on the Dynasty Grinders dot com, but I remember doing so somewhere. And so this is me, taking responsibility for the things that I have said, and admitting that I was wrong some months back about the acquisition cost of this particular prospect.

Anyway, I’m pretty clearly okay in general with good teams acquiring bad salaries as bench or depth pieces and bad teams getting back reputable prospects for them instead of waiting around to cut.

Hustle’s Toxic $.02: Both these owners and teams should be commended for making this trade. They both wanted to make their teams better (I hope) and managed to find the courage to agree on terms despite a potential trade review looming.

PDS obviously sees Schoop as their 2b of the future and at $12 and almost averaging 7 ppg, Schoop is easily the better player and value going forward. Schoop has really cut down his Ks and while his BABIP is high, it’s not crazy high. It makes sense for PDS to get rid of Odor for a prospect they like. If Trammel is their guy, so be it, I’m not sure what their other options were. It was not that long ago when PDS traded DJ Lemeihu for Odor, so Odor’s stench on PDS has been quickly removed. That being said, with their cap space, they were probably better off with DJ and Schoop. Odor was one of the few players I pegged PDS to keep. With one less guy, I’d expect to see a lot of new faces on their team next season, I hope they enjoy the turnover.

 

For Dusty, he trades a borderline top 100 prospect for even more 2b depth. He has Cano at 2b, so Odor is pretty much looking at playing time on his team at Utility. With Taylor, Spangeberg, Priela, and Sogard… Odor might be just another guy on his team. That being said Odor does have some nice power potential and could be big down the stretch if he gets hot on the first place Oysters. It’s a low cost risk for a currently hot swinging Odor.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Trumpa Loompas

Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: SS Andres Gimenez
Trumpa Loompas send: RF Carlos Gonzalez ($37)

Andrew’s Thoughts: Carlos Gonzalez has been terrible this year and is almost assuredly a cut at $39 minimum next year. Trumpa Loompas’ season is over anyway, so may as well dump him for a solid prospect now and call it a day.

I like this Andres Gimenez guy. He’s only 18 and is forever away, but at two rookie ball stops last year, he had a 14.9% walk rate to just a 9.2% K rate, then a 18.7% walk rate versus a 6.7% strikeout rate. That’s crazy for an 18-year-old. Like, who knew millennials were capable of that kind of patience? Impressive! His walk/K ratio isn’t faring as well this year in Single-A, but again, he’s 18. If I’m salary dumping anyway, I’ll take Gimenez and run.

As for Hustle, this is just a reasonably priced gamble. Gimenez isn’t impacting the rest of 2017 or likely 2018-19, but with so many injuries including to regular RF George Springer, Hustle just needs points. Our minors aren’t deep enough yet to where he can’t just turn around and add a guy comparable to Gimenez for free, all while adding Car-Go to his bench. Again, Gonzalez has stunk. But he’s had superstar seasons in the not too distant past and has the theoretical floor of Coors Field going for him.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Preseason Double Stuffs

Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: SP Kyle Funkhouser
Preseason Double Stuffs send: SS Brandon Crawford ($18)

Andrew’s Thoughts: This seems alright. For Hustle, this cheaply helps fill the void of losing Carlos Correa. It also gives him a starter today at short against me, which is the part of this trade I find awful.

Speaking of awful, Brandon Crawford has been. He’s at 0.8261 points per plate appearance right now. To put that in perspective, Byron Buxton is at 0.8779. That’s gross. Kudos to the Double Stuffs for getting anything at all for Crawford. Crawford’s been good enough in the past that maaaaaybe a good stretch to end the year makes him keepable at $20, but probably not. The Double Stuffs lone option at SS is now Jorge Polanco and they still made this deal, which tells you all you need to know.

Kyle Funkhouser is whatever. I’ve heard of him, so that’s good. He’s a college pitcher so he should debut sooner than later. That’s nice. Also, he was acquired for a player worse than Buxton, so the price was definitely right.

Jordan’s Thoughts: [redacted]

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses

Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: 2018 1st Round Pick
The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses sends: SS Addison Russell ($42)

Andrew’s Thoughts: In light of the news that Carlos Correa will miss 6-8 weeks, this trade happened. And I like it for both teams.

Addison Russell is still much more hype than substance. He’s the 25th highest scoring shortstop and is averaging 1.058 points per plate appearance, which is completely uninspiring. He’s got a dismal .297 wOBA, 17th among qualified shortstops. But for Hustle’s purposes, he plays every day and seems like a serviceable accumulator. He won’t fill Correa’s shoes, but doesn’t necessarily need to. I think for the rest of the season, he’s better than his year to date numbers, though maybe not by a ton. Between Russell and Jonathan Villar, Hustle likely has one competent SS to play until Correa gets back around playoff time. I don’t think the first round pick is too steep a price to rent a shortstop when your alternatives are bums on waivers or accepting my troll offers for Taylor Motter.

For WBFD, this is a no-brainer. At $44 minimum next year, he would’ve been nuts to keep Russell anyway. That cost is just way too high to pay for a former top prospect with a .308 wOBA going on 1,500 MLB plate appearances now. Corey Seager comes to mind as a big price paid for a prospect that has panned out. Russell hasn’t. He still has upside, but even a big second half doesn’t seem like it’d turn him into a keeper. So to get a first round pick for him now, while he has value as a rental to a contender, seems wise.

Trade: Capital City Income | Trumpa Loompas

 

Capital City Income trades away
2018 Draft Pick, Round 2 (rocky mtn oysters)
Abreu, Albert

Trumpa Loompas trades away
Salazar, Danny ($39 2017)  (LOOKED IT UP MYSELF!)

Hustle’s .02

This trade screams one thing to me.  Bailey: “Why did I trade away Rich Hill?”

I was teasing a little when I thought this trade may be looked at through the lenses of proposed new scoring rules making relievers more valuable and home runs against less devastating.  Danny Salazar might start some games this year, but right now it doesn’t look like that happens.  If he does, we’re looking at a handful of starts and who knows how good he will be. It would be tough to predict multiple successful starts. At a $41 next year, he seems like a surefire cut regardless of rule changes.

I know Bailey’s thinking here “He was good, he could be good, he might be good… and I’m giving up crap”  All true.

Albert Abreu was a fringe T100 prospect on very few rankings in the offseason and based of 2017 performance he won’t be on any updated ones.  I usually shy away from Colorado and NYY pitchers because of the home run issue. That being said, with potential rule changes, if Abreu makes it as a starter in 3 years or so, the rule change would probably benefit him a decent amount if he stays a Yankee. If he becomes a dominant reliever, the rule change might make him a decent reliever to have.  I don’t know much about him other than he throws hard.

This trade is slightly better for TL because Salazar is untradeable after the deadline and we won’t know if he’s going to start games until then. So there’s a good chance he gets nothing for Salazar if he doesn’t move him soon. Dusty having a lot of wins this season makes the pick less appealing, however Dusty is 12th in points so maybe that pick gets better.

I do like this for both teams.

Andrew’s thoughts: 

Of players with a minimum of 50 innings pitched, Danny Salazar is tied for the 19th best xFIP (3.57). His FIP is 4.59, a whopping 1.02 difference between FIP/xFIP. Of that same group, he’s tied with Tyler Glasnow with the worst BABIP (.366). His HR/FB rate (22.4%) is the fifth worst of that group.

Basically, I see a lot of poor luck in Salazar’s numbers. He’s walking more guys which is his own damn fault, but the K’s are still there. He averaged over 26 points a start last year. So whatever, he’ll probably pitch out of the bullpen the rest of the year and offer me nothing, but I think a top-200 type prospect and a second rounder is worth the gamble that he gets another shot in the rotation this year and produces. That might only buy me two or three actual starts come August, who knows. I don’t follow the Indians at all so maybe he’s a total wreck, but then I look at his numbers next to Josh Tomlin‘s and think… you’re seriously not giving him another shot at the rotation?

 

 

Trade: In Line 4 the Win | The Foundation

 

In Line 4 the Win sends: SP Adam Wainwright ($28), LF/CF/RF Josh Reddick ($7)
The Foundation sends: SP Zach Davies ($4), 2018 1st Round Pick, Player to be Named Later (SP Braxton Garrett)

Andrew’s Thoughts: I like this for The Foundation. I think trading Wainwright at $28 for Davies at $4 plus a little kick back makes sense for IL4W. They get the cheaper, younger guy in that scenario. Honestly, they could’ve traded Wainwright for Davies straight up and I wouldn’t have loved it, but it’d make sense from a budget, long-term team building standpoint.

But Josh Reddick is what tilts this deal for me. He’s cheap, qualifies at all three outfield spots, and is currently averaging over six points a game. He’s had some platoon issues in the past, but he kills RHP, so he more often than not provides value. And this year he’s even hitting lefties.

Meanwhile, the pick going to IL4W currently projects to be 13th. I guess that gives IL4W four first rounders next year, so they can dominate the draft, but what are the odds they land someone better than Reddick with that pick? And again, Reddick is cheap. This is where I think the cost control thing gets blown out of proportion. Is a free/cheap teenager that could pretty easily be nothing really that much more valuable than a proven, solid performer that costs less than $10? I don’t really think so. If you’re rebuilding, maybe it makes sense, but I think making that same type of bet enough times just prolongs your rebuilding process.

The player to be named later aspect is fun. Braxton Garrett is broken though. He had Tommy John surgery near the end of June. He’s also 19-years-old and has all of 15.1 IP at Single-A. He’ll probably miss most or even all of 2018. He was at one point a top-100 prospect, but the lead time and risk makes me feel like you could just as easily find a guy like him off waivers. Also, while IL4W can acquire him once minor league rosters expand, they also have a ton of draft pick ammunition, so unless they funnel off those picks to acquire major league talent, they’ll eventually be cutting prospects to make room for Garrett and their picks.

Hustle’s Take: I agree with almost all of what Andrew said… THIS time so I’ll just interject with a few points that haven’t been addressed.

While I hear the notion that “this draft is weak”, I do think come 2018 minor league draft, guys will start to receive hype and some of the guys will have 1/2 a season of pro ball and some of the cream will rise.  I think there will be some good values in the first round that may not seem super obvious right now.  That being said, IL4W has 4 picks in the first round and 7 overall (none after round 3). That seems like overkill unless you just love the draft. I’d expect Aaron to be never busy during the draft.

Wainwright was unkeepable last year at 50 or so dollars. It’s not crazy that if he finishes the year strong, he’s worth keeping at 22 or shopping to someone with a lot of cap space. Mike Leake wasn’t someoneI wanted to keep last year at 16 and he was moved for a buck, kept, and has done very well.  For Jordan, the problem with Wainwright (as I see it), is he’s hard to use as a matchup play. There doesn’t seem to be a ton of rhyme or reason when Wainwright has a great game or blows up based on matchup. That’s frustrating as an owner.

That’s also not to say I don’t like getting Wainwright, because Jordan didn’t pay a ton. Zach Davies was a nice sleeper heading into the year. Ks are down, HRs are up, Walks are up.  Maybe he puts it together in the second half and becomes a cheap multi year keeper for IL4W.

I’m all for sexy assets when you’re out of it, but didn’t see much here. If Davies and/or Braxton Garrett are your guys, then this is a fine grab. Wainwright and Reddick are a pretty huge boost for Jordan, and one or both might be keepable…. so that’s a big win.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Senior Squids

Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: 2B/3B/SS Jonathan Villar ($12)
Senior Squids sends: SP Sandy Alcantara (minors)

Andrew’s Thoughts: I suppose last year’s stats don’t matter much, but in 2016 Jonathan Villar was the 4th highest scoring shortstop, 7th at 2B, and 5th at 3B. He’s been absolutely dreadful this season to the tune of a .271 wOBA. Of qualified hitters, that ranks 157th out of 166. Byron Buxton ranks 165th on that list. Villar being ranked near Buxton just by itself is devastating to his value. At least Villar only costs $12 and not like, I don’t know, $38 or something. Man, can you imagine paying Byron Buxton $38 to sit on your bench every day? I sure can’t.

I think if you were looking at this season alone, completely ignorant of last year, sure, dump Villar for an okay prospect. But last year exists, and so I can’t see dumping him for a prospect of Sandy Alcantara‘s caliber. I don’t even dislike Alcantara necessarily, but how much of his scouting report can be written about how many other pitching prospects?

Villar just turned 26. He’s already had a season where he finished in the top seven in scoring at three infield positions. How is his value equal to a guy with 76 uninspiring Double-A innings to his name? How does that one line on a 26-year-old’s resume, inflated as it may have been by a .373 BABIP, not trump whatever list you see where Alcantara appears?

I think Hustle will pick someone up this morning that either already is on some other list somewhere or will be before long, essentially replacing Alcantara for free, while adding Villar as a depth piece with proven upside. Villar’s isn’t prospect upside. It’s legitimate, “hey guys, I’m super young and already finished a full season as the 22nd highest scoring hitter” upside. And at $14 next year, Villar’s keepable if he closes out the year strong. He could be keepable if he merely shows life. Sure, he’s likely to be 2B-only next year and that dings his value some, but just rest of season, I’d much rather gamble on what Villar’s already done in the majors than gamble on what Alcantara might some day do.

Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | Preseason Double Stuff

 

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
DeSclafani, Anthony ($11)

Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Garza, Matt ($3)

Hustle’s .02: I guess the most interesting part of this trade is that Desclafani was $11 in auction or as a keeper. He isn’t due back until August at the earliest. Desclafani was better in 2016 that I remember, but I think he goes for cheaper than $13 in auction.  This was a dead player for WTFS and they got some pitching help.

Garza has produced double digit positive points in 5 consecutive games, which in 2017 is something. Averaging 22 points a game certainly isn’t exciting, but very useful in 2017 if he keeps that up and you play his matchups well.

He seems like a top 7 SP on WTFS’s current roster (maybe top 5), so this is a  trade for WTFS vying for a playoff spot.

As for PDS, even though I do not like this trade for them, losing Matt Garza will more then likely not come back to haunt them.

 

Andrew’s thoughts: 

This is a perfectly fine trade for both teams.

Matt Garza is very boring, but serviceable. WTFS needs pitching behind Max Scherzer in much the same way they need a time machine to go back and reverse the decision to keep Byron Buxton for $38. Garza’s been roughly a league average pitcher this year. I think he’s a decent, cheap guy to plug in for a while. If he’s decent, he could also be a keeper into 2018, though he’s unexciting enough that maybe you just toss him back into the pool.

The Double Stuffs’ season is over, so they get the younger guy with presumably higher upside in Anthony DeSclafani who might still be around next year. He was a 26.65 per start pitcher last year which is solid in Cincinnati. He’s hurt, but so what? At $13, they can keep him into 2018 if they want, or if he stays injured all year, just dump him. Whatever. I really don’t see a dramatic difference between trading Garza for some random, meh pitching prospect or trading him for DeSclafani, who may as well be a prospect too but has at least proven he can pitch in MLB.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Team Hydra

Team Hydra sends: 3B Nolan Arenado ($71), SP David Price ($75), LF/CF Tommy Pham (FA), 2018 5th round pick
HLR sends: LF/RF/CF Aaron Hicks (FA), SP Yadier Alvarez, C Zack Collins, 2018 1st & 2nd round pick

Andrew’s Thoughts: Roughly a year ago, I traded Miguel Cabrera, Sonny Gray, and stuff for Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, Jorge Soler, and what ended up being the second overall draft pick plus other stuff. Alex from Team Hydra commented on the trade as such: “to be fair Bailey said those guys were on the block. He just didn’t say they were going to be given away for free.”

Fast forward to yesterday and, well, to be fair, Alex said these guys were on the block. He just didn’t say they were going to be given away for free.

Two of my first thoughts upon seeing this trade were that (a) Aaron Hicks is the best piece going to Hydra, and (b) Tommy Pham may as well be the same guy. I did a quick Google search and here’s some random Cardinals blog that thinks the same thing. So there’s that. Hicks is hitting at a 1.644 PT/PA clip, whereas Pham is at 1.502. Pham’s older and has one less outfield position. They were both free agent adds that will start at $5 salary next year. They just feel very same-y to me, to the point where if one is your main piece and you’re giving up the other, the point feels a tad defeated.

I really didn’t think David Price was going to go for much. He’s got a lot of mileage, has developed a homer problem (who hasn’t?), and there are lingering injury concerns. Also, he’s been pretty bad this year. At $77 next year, I think he’s an easy cut or Hustle will just give him away the moment the season ends and clog up some other team’s budget. I thought he should’ve been cut this year (pre-injury). So whatever team bought him was likely doing it on a rental basis, and I just didn’t see teams spending big to rent anyone. I thought maybe a pick and a prospect would get it done. In that vein, I don’t think sending Collins or Alvarez, or maybe even both, for Price as a rental is that bad on its own, assuming you really believe Price can get it going and help your team this year. Given the pitching landscape, gambling on Price seems like a reasonable bet.

So we haven’t even gotten to the big gun in this trade, and I feel like Hicks and Pham have cancelled each other out and a moderately valuable Price has fetched a couple pieces. There aren’t a ton more assets floating around here.

As for Arenado, well, I’m not sure all the pieces going to Hydra is enough for him alone. He’s expensive, sure, but he’s young, in his prime, plays a premium position, and plays in Coors. His salary is only going to go up by $2/year. That’s nothing. He’s a superstar, priced reasonably at $73 next year, and yet he didn’t land someone universally viewed as an “elite prospect”? I mean, maybe you think Yadier Alvarez is. That’s fair. Everyone’s prospect valuations are different. But he’s pitched 45 innings at A+. The lead time on him is a factor and that assumes that he dodges injury and experiences no developmental speed bumps. He’s already struggling with command this year.

And I like Zack Collins as a hitter, but if he doesn’t stick at catcher, a lot of his value will be sapped in a world where Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Smoak,  Yonder Alonso, Mark Reynolds, and Logan Morrison are awesome and can be had for free. Heck, the Braves are moving Freddie Freeman to third base (I imagine this factored into Hydra’s long-term calculus for moving Arenado) to make room for Matt Adams‘ bat. First base is not lacking for depth. And the cost control aspect is neat but if Collins is $1 and Alonso gets greeded up to like $5, is that really significant value?

If he does stick at catcher, that might push his MLB ETA out further. Again, for me personally, Alvarez and Collins are guys you can afford to spend on a rental player or two or just a quality lineup upgrade, not really key cogs to dealing a stud.

And those picks are… something? It’s going to be a late first rounder and a pick somewhere in the second round, but this year’s MLB Draft class was weak. Looking at last year’s draft, I feel like around the 11th or 12th pick is where it started really being a coin toss. The first belongs to Hustle and the second belongs to Haddy. Today, that’d be pick 16 and pick 27, I think. You can definitely land good talent there, but your odds of whiffing also go up considerably the deeper you go.

Look, I won’t argue anyone’s prospect evaluations. If you think Collins is going to be a star and Alvarez is going to quickly develop into an ace, awesome. I definitely think, at least in Collins’ case, he’s a better fantasy prospect than real life prospect. But I don’t really know. I doubt you know either. We’re all making our best guesses. But I really do have a hard time imagining that, in terms of prospect currency, no one was willing to beat Alvarez and Collins even if, as the buyer, you’re super high on them both. Arenado’s not some declining veteran, win-now salary sell off. He’s a player that even if you’re at the bottom of the standings, you should probably be in on. I’d be curious how many teams even inquired here.

In terms of dynasty rankings Collins and Alvarez are… top 50? Maybe top 30 guys? (The rankings are irrelevant, of course. I don’t recall Bellinger being an “elite” guy a year ago.) I’m not sure if HLR had added Vladimir Guerrero Jr to this package it’d still feel totally right, but it’d at least be closer. At least then there’s a consensus “elite prospect” in the mix.

There’s no telling how this will play out. If the prospects turn into anything decent, Hydra’s probably content. I think some of it will depend on if teams sell players at discounted prices in the off-season like last year, at which point Hydra can put some of the cap space they’ve freed up to use. I know Hustle’s probably thrilled to just plug in Arenado every day instead of oscillating back and forth between Yuli Gurriel and Nick Castellanos.

Hustle’s Take

Trade: Preseason Double Stuffs | We Talk Fantasy Sports

Preseason Double Stuffs send: 2B DJ LeMahieu ($15)
WTFS send: 2B Rougned Odor ($29)

Andrew’s Thoughts: I’m not a Rougned Odor fan at all really. His OBP last year was a crummy .296 and it’s down to .260 last year. He never walks. Basically, unless he hits a home run, he’s a zero for your team. He did hit 33 last year and has 12 so far this year, which is cool, but everyone is a home run hitter now.

To that end, LeMahieu only hit 11 home runs all of last year. And that’s playing half his games at Coors. So Odor’s power output from this season, in which he’s been a big disappointment, is better than LeMahieu’s last year, in his career season. DJ’s older and he’s boring, but his floor is pretty high.

If the costs were the same, sure, trade the boring safe guy for the flashy recent prospect with “upside,” especially if you’re retooling. I get that. In this case, I don’t really get paying an extra $14 for the riskier guy, particularly when, without walks and getting on-base, the upside doesn’t seem all that high. And LeMahieu isn’t 29 yet, so it’s not like he’s some old veteran that you need to cash out on now. But I guess if Odor suddenly decides to walk 8% of the time and stops hitting easy infield flies, there’s room for growth and the power will still be there. I just don’t feel very excited about keeping a $31 (minimum) Odor into 2018.

I like it for WTFS most, who have now freed up $14 for 2018. That money will assuredly help subsidize all Byron Buxton‘s -3 point days on their bench for another year.

Hustle’s Thoughts:

I too like this better for WTFS. LeMahieu (not an actual DJ) was the better fantasy option this year and last and is half the price. The massive power difference between Odor and LeMahieu is washed away by the walk and strikeout rates.  Unless Odor shows significant improvement in those areas, I don’t see this trade working out for Ferns.

That being said Odor is only 23 and 5 years to LeMahieu’s junior and certainly has time to improve and with the power has monster potential.