Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | Organized Chaos

Organized Chaos trades away
Desmond, Ian 1B/LF $28

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 2 (We Talk Fantasy Sports)
Frazier, Clint OF $3 (Year 2 cost controlled)

Hustle’s Toxic $.02 Like Jordan, Keith is also making up for last year’s mistake. Last year Keith left a lot of money on the table. This year? He’s spending it on Sano, Desmond, Kluber, and others. It’s certainly a better strategy than last year and I’m confident his team will be better. That being said, Ian Desmond costs 28 bucks and barely had an OBP over 300. His WRC + was under 90. This is not the kind of player you want to pay a decent chunk for at 1B/LF.

I do however like this trade more for Swinson.¬† At some point, Swinson is going to run out of minor league spots to utilize, but he’s making good use of them here with a major league ready Frazier who I’d consider a decent buy low guy. Swinson has money so wasting $3 on Frazier who might not play a ton this year isn’t a big deal. Frazier is still projected to be a pretty good power hitter with a decent hit tool, it’s just a matter of time before he finds a spot. 2nd round picks have some value in this league, so it’s nice to acquire one. Losing Desmond shouldn’t be a big deal considering his age, price, production, and where Chaos’ team is right now.

Bottom line, I feel like Keith could have used the 3 bucks on Frazier, spent the leftover 25 on similar or better production than Desmond, and kept his 2nd round pick next year. There’s players who have already been cut who I think aren’t a huge step down, if any, from Desmond that should be less than 25, even in our poopy auction.

Andrew’s Thoughts: I don’t have much to add other than to point out that Ian Desmond‘s horrible offensive numbers came… WHILE HE PLAYED HIS HOME GAMES AT COORS FIELD. That’s kind of unforgiveable.

As a Nationals fan, I’ll always have an affinity for Ian Desmond. And I’m not strictly opposed to adding roughly $30 to a budget to bet on a bounceback from a player. But Ian Desmond doesn’t have that high a ceiling to begin with. If he bounces back to a .325 wOBA, you’ve still invested too much. I just think he’s a cut and an overpaid, below average fantasy asset. I like this deal for Swinson.

Trade: The Foundation | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away
2019 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Capital City Ironmen)
Nova, Ivan $9
Sauer, Matt

The Foundation trades away
Harrison, Monte

Andrew’s thoughts: It’s a Christmas miracle! Ivan Nova finally got traded!

Trade seems fine to me. Hustle dumps a pitcher he’s wanted to dump for two years for a guy in the Lewis Brinson mold (“toolsy but terrible at baseball”) and The Foundation upgrades his pitching staff dramatically by adding a guy another team wanted to dump on someone else for two years. Win-win!

Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | Long Ball to LF

TBD¬†trades away 3B Miguel Sano ($41+) We Talk Fantasy Sports¬†trades away 2019 2nd Round Pick Andrew’s Thoughts: I like that WTFS is adding pieces to compete. I think Miguel Sano was pretty clearly a cut though and keeping him at $41+ is steep. He was great in 2017 but struck out a ton and was awful in 2018. If you get 2017 Sano, it’s worth it. If you get 2018 Sano, it’s not. Of course, for a second round pick, who even cares? WTFS could have something better come along between now and auction, cut bait, and be out a likely shitpick. That wouldn’t be so terrible. As it stands now, the auction just lost one more interesting name. I can see the money being left on the table now. I find it simply wonderful that WTFS is once again paying big money to a disappointing Twins prospect. Jordan’s Thoughts: I weirdly thing Sano probably goes for something similar to $30-40 in the draft. He’s projected to be a $5-15 player, but what if the projections are wrong? It isn’t a huge reach to see Sano back in the form of 2017. Assuming his personal issues are cleared up, and his starting job is cemented, he’ll have the opportunity. Its a pretty big gamble. But, Sano is 25 and has done it before. I’m not cheering for him, but that matters little. I’ll give the winner and participation ribbon of the trade to WTFS.

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | TrusttheProcess

Capital City Ironmen trades away

CF Lorenzo Cain ($34)

TrusttheProcess trades away

3B/LF/RF Wil Myers ($21)

Jordan’s thoughts:¬†I love that these kinds of deals exist. These players are fairly similar. Steamer projections currently have them roughly 50 points apart in 2019. I think with those two numbers being fairly close, you’d rather have Myers who qualifies at three positions for $13 less.

However, Cain on a PPPA level is just further ahead, and that’s where his value really kicks in. His ceiling and floor is just higher. There’s a premium for that. In most cases you would rather¬† fill the CF spot of your line-up over the three that Myers qualifies for.

So with both players being so close, and the money isn’t that far off either, we go to their rosters for motivation to pick a winner. TTP collects Cain, despite having Aaron Hicks¬† who also can only play CF. Now for the moment they don’t have a starter at LF.

The Ironmen still have Bryce Harper in CF assuming they keep him. If not, Cody Bellinger qualifies there. Myers is the first spell for three spots. I think the crazy thing is realizing the Ironmen still look incredibly strong in this deal even if they don’t get a player back.

Simply put, the Ironmen saved some money have still have a quality player. If you TrusttheProcess you see they upgraded a player, didn’t spend much more money on them, but did create a potential hole to fill in the line up. Slight win to Bailey?

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

Trade is fine for both teams. In a vacuum I like Cain more because he’s stayed healthy¬† recently and will hit at the top of a good lineup and good park. CF is also probably a more valuable position than the ones Myers has, but at least Myers has some flexibility, so maybe that part is a wash.¬† The $ difference surely makes up some, if not all, of the ground of wanting Cain over¬† Myers.

Both these guys are former HLR Legends.¬† I like that Bailey is acquiring my 2017 Corner Infield duo of Myers/Santana.¬† They were inconsistent, not fun, and frustrating to own in 2017, so I’d venture to say Bailey will not have a great experience with these two in 2019.¬† I can’t hate this too much for Bailey because he is solving his position questions through trades than relying on the auction which just lost Miguel Sano, more on that later I suppose.

Seems non-counterproductive to take care of all these needs for Bailey in one day as a bundle.

 




Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | Capital City Ironmen

Capital City Ironmen trades away:
SP Dallas Keuchel ($47)
OF Shin-soo Choo ($19)

We Talks Fantasy Sports trades away:
1B/3B Carlos Santana ($33)
$15 in 2019 Auction Budget

Jordan’s thoughts: I really like Dallas Keuchel going to pair with newly acquired Corey Kluber. Spending money for pitchers who show up and pitch. Keuchel lost a tiny bit off the K/9 last year, but Steamer projects him to come back up a tad. He doesn’t allow homer and he makes 30+ starts a season. He’s very valuable in this format and at that price point an easy keeper.

Shin-soo Choo quietly played 146 games last year with a¬† .355 wOBA. Even if he loses a tiny bit of edge here, he’s a great value at $19. He’s the good kind of boring fantasy player that many people forget about.

Carlos Santana is presumably getting traded to the Mariners, and perhaps traded again. Who knows what Jerry Dipoto is doing. Santana fits in well in a league where there’s two utility spots. Getting the auction money to pay down his contract this year helps quite a bit too.

While I don’t see anything really wrong with getting Carlos Santana, he’s quite good. I’d rather have Choo and Keuchel. I get that the Ironmen are running into a bit of a roster crunch of sorts and there’s definitely reasons to bail on these two players, I think the return is just as risky and doesn’t quite have the value going forward that you would normally see. I think the Lott brother walk away with a win here.

 

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

I guess I didn’t get to shit on Keith’s previous trade so I’ll just get this one.¬† Nah, actually I like this trade for both teams.¬† $47 Keuchel isn’t a great price but it’s fine compared to what the Auction might yield, and it’s not like you’re ever committed to keeping someone for more than 1 year.¬† At the very least he’ll get innings and be someone you can throw in your lineup each week.¬† Bailey needed¬† a 3b so giving up Choo for Santana instead of relying on Auction seems wise. Choo for Santana straight up seems fine, so if Bailey had to throw in a pitcher he wasn’t keeping or garnering much trade interest, I can see why he did it.

Trade feels needs for both teams and presumably (outside of injury) everyone here gets kept which means… the auction just got that much weaker…. AGAIN.

 




Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | TBD

TBD¬†trades away SP Corey Kluber ($86) SP/RP Dennis Santana ($3.50) SP Michael King (prospect) $20 in 2019 Auction Budget We Talk Fantasy Sports¬†trades away Corbin Burnes (prospect) German Marquez $7 2019’s 1st round (1st Overall) minor league draft pick Jordan’s Thoughts: I think that German Marquez is quite valuable. Last year he started 33 games and scored 1107 points. That’s a pretty huge value for a $7 starter. However, I get that he’s kinda scary being a pitcher (they blow up), he’s a Colorado Rockies pitcher (no explanation necessary), and early projections have him regressing a tiny bit. Corbin Burnes went from a starting pitcher prospect to getting shoved into the “out-getter” (bullpen) role for the Brewers organization. He was mildly successful in his 30 appearances, but projection systems do see him getting back into a starting role. He seems quite useful despite the slight risk. He’s cost controlled and easy to slot into your roster until the Brewers make up their mind. Obviously the first overall pick has tremendous potential value, and here presented itself a a decent piece in a trade for Corey Kluber. We Talk Fantasy Sports got Corey Kluber and two spare parts. Michael King seems like he might have some potential, and while Santana if he makes the Dodgers rotation is immediately valuable, he will receive the free agent minimum in 2019. Using STEAMER projections Kluber is projected to be the best starting pitcher available. Almost no matter how you value pitchers, Kluber’s keeper value is really favorable. Tossing in the $20 is icing on the cake. Kluber projected to be right in line with where he was last year which was basically 40 points a start. If you have money to spend, Kluber is the right guy to spend it on. Now everyone’s favorite part where I pick the winner, and I have to go with TBD. I think its pretty close. I don’t like that WTFS sent off Marquez in this deal, and with him in it, clearly understand why TBD took the offer. Marquez is just too valuable to let go in my opinion. Andrew’s Thoughts:¬†I agree with most of what Jordan already said and think it’s pretty obvious this trade hinges on German Marquez. If he’s truly the guy he morphed into last year, this is likely a massive win for TBD, as they get a much, much cheaper ace and the #1 overall pick. All of Marquez’s numbers from last year look legit to me. But… like 15-20 starts ago, he was “just a guy.” A guy on the Rockies. So Marquez is a fairly risky proposition still. Kluber, meanwhile, is beginning to decline a bit I think but is still a top of the rotation stud. He averaged almost 40 points per game in a year a lot of his peripherals slipped. Pretty amazing. Both teams accomplish something they needed here. TBD takes on some risk in order to free up some budget space and WTFS lands a bankable pitcher. I’ll say that I like this more for WTFS simply because they got back a more reliable piece, but again, if 2018 Marquez is future Marquez, then this deal looks fantastic for TBD. I will also confess that part of why I like it for WTFS is because this trade screams “quick rebuild” and I’m pro teams trying to turn things around for their teams quickly.

Trade: Capital City | Evil Otters

80 grade smile
Capital City Ironmen¬†trades away Kurt Suzuki $9 Evil Otters¬†trades away 2019¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†4¬†(Evil Otters) 3 Auction Dollars Jordan’s thoughts: Kurt Suzuki is okay. A fourth round draft pick isn’t worth anything until its on the clock. 3 auction dollars is enough grease to make some trade work. All three pieces in the same deal in this direction does not make a whole lot of sense. How does a conversation start when asking or selling a Kurt Suzuki? Buyer: I need a catcher. Seller: (looks up) (looks down) (looks up) uh I have Kurt Suzuki available I guess. Buyer: Great I’ll offer a 4th round draft pick, deal?! Seller: Well a 4th round pick isn’t really worth anythi…(interuppted) Buyer: And 3 auction dollars! Seller: … deal? /scene I feel like the guy who just watched this scene. What the fuck did I just spend my time doing?
Hustle’s Toxic $.02 : I dislike this trade more for Kyle than I like it for Bailey. To be clear a 4th round pick and $3 is not a haul that Kyle will regret giving up. That being said, Suzuki‚Äôs price next year is $9 which seems unkeepable to me to begin with. He‚Äôs probably the backup catcher on his own real life team. So investing $12 and a pick in a backup catcher seems like an overpay. Similar poopish catchers will be available in the auction for under $5 and if committed to improving catcher, it‚Äôs not hard to find guys on the waiver wire to give you the same minimal average production. I see the benefit of having both catchers on one team (Kyle already has Yan Gomes), but I wouldn‚Äôt pay for that luxury for a guy like Suzuki. If Gomes‚Äô backup was a young guy with offensive upside who you could pencil in as their future guy, then maybe. But Suzuki is 35. I‚Äôd roll the dice on getting someone for free if I‚Äôm not getting a catcher with offensive upside.

Trade: Capital City Income| Uncreative Team Name

Capital City Income trades away
Anderson Alexander Tejeda
Hudson Potts

TBD trades away
Bryse Wilson
Nick Solak
1 Auction Dollar

Bryse Wilson throws a baseball.

Jordan’s Thoughts: Oh boy! A prospect trade. I have heard of some of these guys. First off I was not patient enough to figure out how to find A A Tejada on FanGraphs and I’m perfectly fine ignoring him. Hudson Potts just based on looking at his minor league record does not strike me as anything interesting other than he’s a former first round pick and they tend to get more chances to thrive.

Nick Solak is hitting homers and showing ability to dephicer a strike zone at the double-A level. That’s likeable. Bryse Wilson also looks pretty promising. He’s on the cusp of breaking through, but he’s in an organization full of starting pitchers and could end up spending more time than you want in a bullpen. Either way he’s a major leaguer with options. 

The one auction dollar switching sides is clearly the biggest piece moving here. Two top teams slide money across the table is definitely interesting.

Hustle’s toxic $.02: Most surprising part of this deal was that Jordan has heard of some of these names.  I like this trade more for the Income’s here.  You kinda hope Tejada turns into Solak, so why wouldn’t you just rather have Solak? Especially when Tejada is a much less given to stick at 2nd. 

Potts vs Wilson seems more reasonable.  Bailey continues to build an army of near major league ready arms by adding Wilson to Wdener and Quantrill.  You pretty much get a player for 2 years for free if they are cost controlled, so its very easy to see some value come through near major league ready pitching, even if there’s limited upside. Potts has been gaining some hype, but to me the bar for being a good 3b is a lot higher than it use to be. My intuition tells me TBD will trade Potts within a year. 

Trade: The Foundation | Long Ball to LF

The Foundation trades away
3B Jake Lamb ($11)

Long Ball to LF trades away
RF Yasiel Puig ($25)

Andrew’s Thoughts: I loved Jake Lamb coming into last year. I think at the time he was a top-20 wOBA guy against RHP over the previous season, or maybe even the previous two. But he battled the new humidor in Arizona and, more importantly, injuries all year. I like him as a solid bounce back candidate. For $11, he’s a good gamble for Long Ball and trading the more expensive Puig to get him shaves off some money from the budget.

For The Foundation, well, this team needs outfield help in a big way. Still does. Playing time has been kind of fickle in LA for the enigmatic Puig, but maybe this is the off-season they finally trade him. Either way, he’s a consistent hitter, albeit I think he’s still living a bit off of the 2014 season he’s never come close to duplicating. Still, Jordan had a surplus at 3B with Justin Turner and Jurickson Profar (and I guess maybe even Hunter Dozier), so Lamb as a flier on his bench was worth a lot less than Puig in that RF slot as often as the Dodgers (or whoever he gets traded to) start him.

Hustle’s Toxic $0.02:   I like this trade for both teams. I guess acquiring former HLR legend Jake Lamb signals some combo of Sano and/or Donaldson gets thrown back into the pool by LB. I kinda like what Puig was doing towards the end of last season and he sure has really “figured it out”‚ĄĘ potential. LB has a decent amount of OF so this makes sense. Having $1 Acuna/Soto next year while simultaneously pushing for teams to have less budget in auction may seem a little disingenuous and cheap‚ĄĘ, but also makes sense for him to do.

Both guys seem underrated heading into 2019 and it fills position needs for both teams.  The benefits of a daily league is if you’re active, you can manage platoons and get a lot of value out of guys who only hit righties well, like Lamb. I don’t think either team will be kicking themselves later for making this. Dollar for Dollar Lamb is probably better, but the dollars dont matter much here as both teams can easily afford the guys and are better off at solving roster construction pre-auction.

Trade: Evil Otters | TBD

 

TBD trades away
Upton, Justin ($56+)

Evil Otters trades away
Mountcastle, Ryan (ML)

Jordan’s thoughts: Upton is a tiny stretch at the 50 dollar plus mark for his 850 points last year and 808 point projection next year. The projection does seem oddly pessimistic for the 31-year-old outfielder. Anything like 2017 or even 2018 with a few more games played and he’s easily worth the auction price tag.

Mountcastle is the number 2 prospect for one of the worst farm systems in the majors. He’s likely to make it at some point. He did hit a decent 121 wRC+ in AA as a 21-year-old last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Orioles give him a shot in 2019, but he seems years away from being meaningfully useful.

I like this trade for TBD more so than Evil Otters. I get what Otters is doing and spending a slight premium for an All-Star capable of being great again isn’t a bad idea. I just have experience the with Upton brothers and I would rather miss on them.

 

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02:¬† Let us take a trip down Mountcastle Lane

8/1/2016

Team Hydra trades away
2018 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Team Hydra)
Mountcastle, Ryan

Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
2017 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Preseason Double Stuffs)
Gray, Sonny

 

11/27/2017

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Manaea, Sean

Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Mountcastle, Ryan

4/25/2018

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Wong, Connor
Chirinos, Yonny
Mountcastle, Ryan
Bieber, Shane
Diaz, Yusniel

Evil Otters trades away
Godley, Zack

9/29/2018

TBD trades away
Upton, Justin ($56+)

Evil Otters trades away
Mountcastle, Ryan (ML)

Death, Taxes, Trading for Ryan Mountcastle. A Dynasty Grinders tradition like no other. Owned my nearly 1/3 of the league. In the hearts of 16/16 teams. His quest to the majors is a journey we are now all invested in.

I like this trade for the team that won’t name itself. They were going to cut Upton and find themselves in a rare position of not having prospects, so they picked up on who should certainly be owned. Well at least they think he should be owned, and the 4 previous owners did too.

I¬† also like this trade for Kyle. I’m sure if Bailey would be writing this review he’d give much praise to Kyle for being competitive and buying. He’d have some sort of snarky remark about how more teams are tanking than competing.¬† Me on the other hand? I take some weird glee in watching the auction get weaker and weaker.

“But Hustle, Mike Leake went for $35 dollars last year, do you really want to see that happen?”

“No little Jimmy…I want to see him go for $55”