Trade: Night King’s Undead Army¬† | Capital City Income

Capital City Income trades away
Phillips, Brett $3 (cost controlled)
Ragans, Cole
Tucker, Cole

Night King’s Undead Army¬†trades away
Reddick, Josh $9

Hustle’s Toxic .$02

I’m not sure what I expected this week. No Football. The Royal Rumble isn’t until Sunday Night. One thing I certainly wasn’t prepared for was for Jordan to trade for 3 prospects.¬† I went back to the Squids Media publication to see where Jordan’s team was ranked, surely that must have triggered him. I was surprised Squids ranked Jordan’s farm #5 with Kyle Zimmer as a 2018 MLB impact prospect.¬† I don’t know what to think anymore.

Cole Ragans ETA is 2021, seems like a very un-Jordan like investment.¬† He has a pretty good strikeout upside with his repertoire, but has control issues and a long way away. Cole Tucker seems like a low power starting SS eventually. With an already stacked SS core of Didi, Segura, and Dejong… there doesn’t seem like a lot of need here. I guess Jordan likes these guys and are possibly trade chips down the line. I wouldn’t have put the Undead Army at #5 overall, but this trade certainly bolstered his system. I see these two pieces as throw ins to a Phillips for Reddick deal essentially. When I ask to trade¬† a prospect to Jordan he says “I’ve heard of this Vlad guy, how about him?” when he trades with others he demands Cole Tucker¬†¬Į\_(„ÉĄ)_/¬Į

For Bailey, getting a CF  eligible Reddick that he  feels more comfortable keeping at the price is a big win.  Reddick has been a very useful hitter vs RHP. Seems like a good useful boring piece that will generate some Income for the Income.

For Jordan, trading away Reddick really only leaves him with recently acquired Max Kepler for CF. Kepler is also only useful against RHP. Seems like combined one of Kepler or Reddick starts against a righty at least 6 days a week and the other becomes an option elsewhere in his lineup if they both have attractive RHP starts. By trading Reddick away, there’s a lot more pressure on Jordan in finding another CF hitter.¬† Phillips is a good get with some upside, but his path to playing time in 2018 seems very tenuous with Braun, Santana, Cain, and Yelich ahead of him. That being said, if he lives up to expectations and finds a starting role somewhere, he’s certainly capable of being Reddick or more and becomes a better long term option than Reddick could be at 31.

I think this trade is fine for both teams.¬† I’d like to think Jordan woke up this morning and pontificated the moves and process he’s employed over the last 2 years and decided that today he would grind a little differently.

Trade: TBD | Capital City Income

Capital City Income trades away
Lamet, Dinelson ($1 cost controlled)
Zimmerman, Ryan (5)

TBD trades away
Lamb, Jake ($9)
Roark, Tanner ($9)

 

 

 

 

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02:¬† This trade is pretty triggering for me because I traded the best two pieces in this trade. 1 week before the 2016 Season I traded TBD a $1 Lamb for a $2 Souza. 1 week after the 2017 Minor League Draft I traded CAP a prospect Dinelson Lamet for a 4th round pick in 2020 (can’t wait to make that pick btw).¬† In my defense I had too many prospects and because of green flag rules, I was going to drop Lamet. Now that we’ve talked about myself, let’s move on to less interesting matters.

CAP’s haul

I personally see Jake Lamb as the best asset of this trade. He had a bad second half last year (for the second year in a row), but I think Lamb was hampered by a hand injury. He seems like he has the safest floor ( and a pretty high one) of a guy Bailey can keep for multiple years, but let’s see how he does with the rumored humidor!¬† With Beltre as his primary 3b, Jake Lamb provides depth and future at the position for CAP.¬† ¬†Most importantly, Bailey finally has someone we can greed on his team

Tanner Roark? Probably the weakest part of this entire trade. I don’t really wanna look into Tanner Roark. He’s fine at $9 and Bailey follows the Nationals, so OK.¬† Maybe him and Lamet are a wash, that’s what he would hope for.

TBD’s Haul

Dinelson Lamet!¬† Lamet has the upside to be the best part of this trade if he turns into a consistent pitcher who can go late into games and keep up his k rate. He also has considerable downside as evidenced by his 5 walks per 9 in the second half. He’s a sexy name right now and has plenty of time to figure it out, but he’s still a bit of an unknown.

Ryan Zimmerman has always been an underrated hitter who couldn’t stay healthy. In 2017 he played more than he has in the last 4 years and exploded for 36 bombs.¬† I think it would be kind of ridiculous to expect a repeat (he faded pretty bad in the 2nd half), but he’s surely worth his price and TBD was looking for a 1b.¬† Lastly, one should probably question a Nationals fan trading away a National.

Conclusion:¬†I think think Bailey did a good job of selling high on guys coming off good season and buying low on 2 disappointing seasons.¬†Ultimately, I¬†think it really comes down to what Dinelson Lamet is in 2018 and beyond. If you’re a big fan of D.L.¬† you like this trade for TBD, if you’re not you like it for CAP.

These two teams are amongst the more successful teams in this league primarily through effort and paying attention. Other members of the league will create fake conversations in order to pretend to be strategic to justify inactivity.  Both these methods take effort and ultimately are examples of grinding ,but grinding differently.

 

 

Trade: Offseason Double Stuffs | Team Hydra

Offseason Double Stuffs sends: SP Patrick Corbin ($8)
Team Hydra sends: 2B/SS Jose Peraza ($5)

Andrew’s thoughts:¬†Jose Peraza is awful in our scoring format, so I like this move for Hydra. They added a cheap pitcher for a surefire cut.

On Peraza: he had a .273 wOBA and a 62 WRC+ last year. Of hitters with 500 plate appearances, he’d rank 142nd in both (out of 145 qualifiers). He’s projected by Steamer for a .301/81 slash. Yuck. He doesn’t walk or have power. He’s Billy Hamilton but with middle infield eligibility.

Yeah, give me the $8 pitcher who just struck out more than eight batters per nine innings with the sub-4.00 xFIP. No contest for me.

Hustle’s toxic $0.02:¬†I will always cherish times in this league in 2017 when Hydra was rolling out Peraza and Hamilton in a week long matchup.

Made no sense then, makes no sense now. Peraza could fill in as a backup for some weak positions (and that has value) but I wouldn’t be looking to add him. Corbin was maddingly inconsistent last year but at times was brilliant and seems like a good ¬†gamble at $8. ¬†Maybe they finally add a humidor to Chase Field too! If you’re completely out on Corbin, then sure give him away for something that you can use.

Trade: Offseason Double Stuffs | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Offseason Double Stuffs send: 1B Greg Bird ($13)
Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: 1B Wil Myers ($19), 1B Colin Moran ($3; cost controlled), LF Starling Heredia (minors)

Andrew’s thoughts:¬†I used to be a big Wil Myers fan. But these days I feel kinda underwhelmed by him, especially at $19. I wish I still had the chart I made for Hustle that showed where Myers ranked on a Pt/PA basis up against other guys. We’ve talked about him a lot privately. I forget who was on there now, but Lucas Duda was for sure better. It just seems weird. And I get it, no one’s buying Duda (or whoever) in lieu of Myers just because of the rate stats alone. And there were other Duda-esque guys on that list that just require some platoon management. First base is deep and while Myers is effective, he just hasn’t been a consistent difference maker there. Doesn’t mean he won’t become one. If he gets some outfield eligibility back, that adds value. He’s still in his prime. In June 2016, he was so scorching hot that he was traded in a package for Bryce Harper. But since then, while he hasn’t gotten worse, he hasn’t gotten markedly better either. Over the last two seasons, he’s 15th among 1B’s in wOBA.

Bird, meanwhile, is interesting. He only had a WRC+ of 86 last year in a limited sample of 170 plate appearances. That’s awful. But Steamer projects him for a 122 this year with a .356 wOBA. He’s got a career .339 wOBA over 348 PAs and is two years younger than Myers. He’s riskier, for sure — haven’t even mentioned his injuries — but Hustle’s roster is in a spot where he can afford the gamble, I think. Granted, Myers is essentially his only 1B, so if the gamble fails, he’s going to potentially have a big 1B void.

And maybe you could argue the Double Stuffs need to gamble as well to climb out of the basement of the standings, but the fastest way to improve is to exchange risk for safety. It’s not sexy. In this case, they’re sending off potentially more upside in Bird for Myers’ relatively high floor, and are just shifting their risk to Colin Moran‘s swing changes and Starling Heredia‘s prospect profile. With only a $27 Maikel Franco (is he even keepable?) as their only real 3B option, gambling on Moran (who should unlock 3B quickly) while replacing Bird with Myers seems to have a potentially greater payoff than just gambling on Bird alone anyway. In order to get better, bad teams need to take gambles, but they also need to expand their portfolio of assets.

I guess I like it for both teams. I know Hustle really wanted Bird, so here you go. He’s got him. It probably looks like a slight overpay, but sometimes you pay a bit more for guys you really want. No big deal.

And I know Ferns is a competitive guy and hates losing, so while maybe Bird might have a higher ceiling than Myers over the long haul — Steamer projects him for a better Pt/PA than Myers next year, although it projects Myers to accumulate more points based on pure volume — this seems like a move that pushes his team’s floor up and still gives him ample upside. I think he’s more likely to be a bit more competitive in 2018 with this move, and being competitive now seems better than not.

Mostly, I’m just happy to see Hustle and Ferns in harmony together, at least until the next time Ferns forgets to start a seventh guy and Hustle calls him on it or until Hustle proposes some outlandish rule change.

Hustle’s less toxic $.02: If I told you I sent 100 Greg Bird trade offers this offseason to Ferns, it would not be an exaggeration by much if at all. A bet on Greg Bird is a gut call for me. One of my earliest lessons in fantasy is not to give up on players you love because of one bad season. I was big on him last year and not a lot has changed for me. Bird was a monster in spring training, his rookie year, once he got back from injury last year and in the playoffs. He was taking elite lefties deep with elite exit velocity. When evaluating trades it’s tough to separate enthusiasm with realistic expectations and Bird tows that line for me.

Colin Moran had 0 value a week ago, and while I think he’s big time sleeper this year, I would probably kick myself over and over again if Bird blew up and the reason I didn’t own him was Colin Moran. I’m torn on if Moran actually became a new player last year or he benefitted from being a 24 year old in AAA, I lean the fact that hes actually going to be a contributor next season. I like Heredia ¬†a lot too, but I have a lot of prospect outfielders I like as is.

I think Bird has a better shot to be a difference maker and ¬†I’ll bet some surplus to see if I’m right. The fact that Bird is 6 dollars cheaper and 2 years younger is also encouraging for his value, let alone potentially hitting between Judge and Stanton. That being said, I think Ferns got a very strong haul that improves his team right away.

 

 

 

Trade: Team Hydra | TBD

TBD sends: SP Madison Bumgarner ($85), $5 2018 Auction Budget,
Team Hydra sends: RF Dustin Fowler ($1; prospect), SP Tyler Chatwood ($7)

Andrew’s thoughts: This is an interesting one. Hydra appears to have a ton of budget and can afford to punt a meh prospect and a cheap innings eater to add an expensive but elite pitcher. I actually thought about asking Hydra about Chatwood myself just because, like TBD, I could use some safe, boring pitching options to fill in some roster spots on the cheap.

Anyway, alright deal here. It’s probably somewhat disappointing to just get these two players — and have to kick in $5 — for an elite talent like Bumgarner. I imagine that at $85, and with some teams watching their wallets for Shohei Ohtani, there weren’t a ton of bites on Bumgarner. I don’t know what TBD plans to do or if they’ll have the money to make it work at auction, but this is the kind of return where I’d seriously consider just cutting Bumgarner and giving myself the option to re-bid. Not saying the pieces coming back aren’t useful, but they are rather unexciting, so this is salary dump territory.

Hustle’s toxic $0.02:¬†Just cut him huh Bailey? Well maybe Joe thinks that Bumgarner is very overvalued at $85 that it’s worth it to him to stick Bumgarner on another team to eat almost a 1/5 of his salary? If ¬†anyone else gets a cheaper Bumgarner for free in auction, that’s a loss for Joe compared to even selling him for $1.

Chatwood is getting some hype because hes moving away from Coors field to Wrigley, and rightfully so. ¬†We’ve seen some pitchers like Pomeranz turn their careers around just by leaving Colorado and Chatwood seems potentially next. Mix in the fact that hes going to Chicago and you have a vintage TBD target. Potentially a rich man’s Eddie Butler!

When I saw Hydra’s roster the other day I noticed they have a ton of $1 players, so I’m guessing Fowler is a guy they aren’t keen on. I’m not sure what his upside is glancing at his minor league numbers, his walk rate is bad and seemingly only has moderate power. We won’t know what Fowler will provide for a while, but at a cheap cost it’s worth a gamble.

$5 for a cheap Fowler and Chatwood seem reasonable. We still might see Bumgarner in the auction, maybe not.

 

Trade: Team Hydra | Long Ball to LF

Long Ball to LF sends: SP Tyler Skaggs ($9)
Team Hydra sends: 2B Devon Travis ($13)

Andrew’s thoughts: This is about as even as a trade gets. Two young guys with as much upside as injury risk. I like Devon Travis a bit more personally, just because he’s got a better MLB track record and, well, because I got 16 starts of 6.69 Pt/G out of him last year for the low, low cost of some FAAB. Never forget.

Basically even money here; one team that wanted a pitcher gets a pitcher, and one team that wanted a 2B gets a 2B. This is exactly the type of trade this league needed to get the hot stove firing.

Hustle’s toxic $0.02:¬†The trade seems fair enough. Long Ball now has Dynasty Grinders legend Devon Travis as his third 2nd basemen after Dee Gordon and Jose Ramirez, which doesn’t make a ton of sense unless you’re trading one away. Still makes more sense than paying double digit cash for him (on top of his salary) and dropping him a month into the season though.

Hydra picks up Tyler Skaggs, who is an interesting gamble at $9. The winner of this trade will pretty obviously come down to which of these guys have a better year, assuming they both get kept. The only losers are those that are reviewing it.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect| In Line for the win

Hustle Loyalty Respect to In Line 4 the Win
Allen, Logan

In Line 4 the Win to Hustle Loyalty Respect 
$1

Hustles Toxic $.02.:  Where to begin?  Neal called me out on slack for poor trade offers. I shaved $1 off my asking price and he accepted.

Logan Allen is a solid pitching prospect, top 10 in a stacked Padres system and could be up in 2019 if he continues to pitch well.

Prior to this trade IL4W had 15 prospects on his farm when we all have 20 spots (and expanding to 25). It really makes no sense to have less than 20 green flag players right now unless you recently traded down from 20.

IL4W’s farm improves because he added a¬† $0 guy to his team in an empty roster spot.

 

Trade: Long Ball to LF | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Long Ball to LF sends: $5 auction budget
Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: SP Daniel Mengden ($5)

Andrew’s thoughts: These two teams have conducted a nice, fair trade here. Long Ball to LF has basically invested $10 to take a ride on the Daniel Mengden express, hoping that in 2017 he will discover the fast track to pitching stardom. HLR, meanwhile, probably saw Mengden as the caboose of his current pitching rotation — a back-end piece that was likely to just get left at the station, but maybe, possibly, could have have stuck. I would probably rather just have the $5 personally, but I find this trade difficult to truly rail against.

Trade: Night King’s Undead Army | TBD

TBD sends: CF/RF Max Kepler ($15), 2018 4th Round Pick
Night King’s Undead Army sends:¬†2018 2nd Round Pick

 

Andrew’s Thoughts:¬†Well, Night King’s Undead Army gets the centerfielder that Jordan coveted.

I’m a big Max Kepler fan. I went to a Twins game in Minnesota last year and took pictures of him, and of stuff with him on it. It was creepy. Having said that, I’m torn on him as a $15 option. I do think there’s pretty solid upside in him — when he’s hot, he’s quite good, so consistency as he matures will help — but, I don’t know. I guess for the cost of moving back two rounds, it’s fine. I think if sent back to auction, Kepler probably takes a slight pay cut. But I also like getting my guys before auction and not having to roll those dice, so.

For TBD, seems good. Another salary dump of an obvious cut in exchange for what might be an okay prospect. TBD’s farm system continues to stockpile without really spending resources that matter to them, so that seems fun.

Hustle’s toxic $0.02:¬†Joe turning another cuttable asset for something in return is always going to be a good move, so I like this for TBD. He’s also been arguably the best at extracting value from picks and minor leaguers, so this is another asset for him.¬† This also saves Jordan at least one awkward DM to me during the minor league draft asking if drafting player X is a good choice.

$15 for Max Kepler seems steep for a somewhat averaging scoring outfielder.¬† He does have CF eligibility which is nice. Jordan has Josh Reddick at 9, but maybe he doesn’t feel comfortable there. Either way, I think Jordan losing a 2nd round pick doesn’t mean a lot for his team and adding a hitter who can play at RF. CF or UTIL certainly will add value and flexibility to his roster. That being said I always think back to Bailey’s cheap outfielders from last year like Span and Markakis… I was able to add Avisail Garcia and Robbie Grossman.¬† Does Kepler have significantly more upside than Kepler to justify 3 times the salary and a 2nd round pick? He might, but he might not. Maybe Span and Markakis don’t have the year like they did last year, but I think there will be comparable unsexy outfielders available in the auction or for cheap once the¬† season starts. If you acquire that type of player during the season, I’m sure a 2nd rounder is close to what gets it done, and you probably save the $15, and that’s under the premise you didn’t lock one up for under $5 at auction or pick one up for free. If you think Kepler has significant upside, I can see the justification here.

Trade: Evil Otters | TBD

TBD sends: C Brian McCann
Evil Otters sends: SP Joey Wentz (minors)

Andrew’s Thoughts:¬†This makes sense for both teams.

Brian McCann is a solid catcher that I think is worth $15 for the reliability alone. Catcher is a fickle position. I tend to value guys that you can simply trust to not suck. McCann is one of those guys. At this price though, I assume TBD saw him as an insignificant piece in the grand scheme of things and a way to shave $15 off their budget. Seems fine to me. This Joey Wentz guy is a 20-year-old, back-end of top-100 lists pitcher with 131 innings at Single-A. He’s whatever. If you’re getting him for a guy you didn’t want to keep, I think that’s fine. Maybe he shoots up lists a tad between now and June, and TBD flips him for profit.

For the Evil Otters, I also like this move. As you can tell, I don’t think Wentz is particularly special. He’s exactly the type of prospect I’d punt to improve my team now. McCann gives the Otters a reliable starting backstop, and this team should have a ton of budget to spend, so yeah, I’d rather have the boring old vet that’ll help now. Tacking on the $15 is nothing. Also, the Otters farm system is in complete disarray. All first and second round picks for the next three years are gone and Wentz was essentially the only prospect in this system that you’ll see on a list as we head into the new season. Ryan Howard is in the minors for this team. It’s dark. And so from that lens, Wentz or not, this wasn’t a strong system. And remember, this roster lucked into a first place record last year. So from that perspective, I think it makes sense to spend whatever little prospect currency you’ve got, try to gear up for the start of the season, and if things putter out early, well, then maybe you consider trying to rebuild the farm a bit.

Hustle’s toxic $.02: There isn’t to much to say that Bailey already didn’t. I think $15 is probably pushing it in terms of value out of Mccann. That being said $17 for a combined C platoon with Barnes seems reasonable.¬† Also, there’s a lot of money available for Evil Otters to be spending, so if McCann is slightly overpaid, it’s probably not¬† a big deal.

Hustle Media likes Joey Wentz was a prospect, but an A ball pitcher has a long way to go in terms of risky and development.¬† It’s hard to hate trading one away. TBD currently doesn’t have a catcher on their roster outside of Nick Hundley, so unless they make another trade, they’re likely to be looking at a few guys in the auction.

Seems like a fine trade for both teams.