Trade: Senior Squids | Long Ball to LF

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Musgrove, Joe
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids)
Wright, Kyle
O’Neill, Tyler

Senior Squids trades away
Paxton, James

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

The nice thing I’ll say about this trade is that I do like it more than the last one.¬† Paxton is a more volatile asset than Gary Sanchez is, thus I think it’s a better piece to trade if you’re rebuilding/tanking.¬† Elton took my advice from the last review in trading Paxton. I still think it would be preferable to have made this trade rather than and instead of the last one.

That being said, I still think this isn’t a great trade, but it’s not awful.¬† It’s basically a downgrade from a near ace level pitcher in Paxton to whatever Musgrove is with a wild card shot on Wright or Oneil being something. If Oneill becomes a middle of the order bopper year in and year out and Musgrove is a top 30ish pitcher, then it probably works out ok for him. That still seems like a lot of risk of both those things happening rather than Paxton just staying good. Paxton could get hurt, but Musgrove is no stranger to injuries either.¬† Seems risky with not a ton of upside unless you think Paxton isn’t built to hold up for a few years or that Musgrove will become close to his tier of a player. Which I suppose is possible!

I still have trouble seeing how this puts Elton in a better position to beat the teams he made stronger in 2019 and beyond. Senior Squids finally has a top 10 farm, and their best course now is to let his prospects marinate and hopefully next year flip them for an elite asset like Gary Sanchez or James Paxton.¬†This trade reminds me a lot of the Pirates trading Gerit Cole, when they sought elite future assets and ended up with… Joe Musgrove.

For Long Ball, this seems like a no brainer move. Sure Paxton has injury risk, but so does Musgrove. Every trade has inherent risks, but this seems like a pretty safe bet. With a rotation of Nola, Paxton, and Greinke, the Long Balls look to be serious contenders now and in the future.

Andrew’s thoughts:¬†

James Paxton is a weird guy to value. He’s obviously very, very good, but he’s also constantly hurt. He’s never thrown more than 136 innings and I feel like if you’re buying him, you’re probably worried he won’t be available when it matters most (H2H playoff time). At the same time… he costs only $10, $12 minimum to keep, and that is effectively nothing. Even if he gets greeded up to $20, that’s peanuts for a player of his caliber. He could miss all of 2019 for whatever reason and still be cheap enough to keep into 2020. I guess what I’m saying is, he’s riskier than your average pitcher, but his price and ability outweigh a good majority of that risk. I agree with Hustle’s general sentiment that, for a rebuilding team, Paxton is the most obvious chip to move (and that he should’ve been traded first and instead of franchise piece Gary Sanchez).

On the other side, Joe Musgrove also appears to be an injury risk. He’s only pitched in four MLB games this year after battling injuries all winter and spring. I like Musgrove, but I’m a little shocked he’s the main piece in a deal for a Paxton-like stud. I’m having flashbacks to Lewis Brinson — in other words, a guy who pops up on the trade block sporadically for months, then is suddenly headlining a deal for a star. In this case, three of Musgrove’s four starts have been good, so I guess that’s enough to make him valuable.

In essence, Long Ball paid three prospects — O’Neill, Wright, and a pick — to upgrade Musgrove to Paxton. And I love it. He had to do it. He didn’t, in my opinion, touch any of his premium prospects to get this deal done (if I’m Squids and trading Paxton to Long Ball, I’m getting Juan Soto or Bo Bichette back or I’m shopping really hard elsewhere). Musgrove seems good, but Paxton is elite. To me, Tyler O’Neill is a depth piece in our league. The power will play, but his cost control clock has already started ticking and he’s on a team that doesn’t have room for him. Is he just a fourth outfielder? Kyle Wright ranked 24th on FanGraphs’ new prospect list, but I don’t know much about him. He’s a pitcher, and if I’m tanking this year and probably next as Squids appears to be doing, I’m just not pumped to do it all around pitchers.

Ultimately I can’t escape the feeling here that Squids decided Paxton had to go ASAP and just took whatever offer looked best. Yeah, Paxton’s risky, but given his performance and cost, literally every team should have shown interest. Paxton is more valuable to even a rebuilding team than almost any prospect or combo of 2-3 prospects. I’d love to know if any “rebuilding” teams inquired. I know Squids has taken some pleasure in trying to play the “top teams” against each other as he tears down, but the market for Paxton should’ve been vast and the return just seems underwhelming. Oh well. Paxton’s arm could melt off at any moment (he had forearm cramping during his last start!) and this deal could then look fantastic simply by virtue of getting something. There aren’t a lot of studs in the league for under $20, but Paxton’s one of them and injury history be damned, I feel like he should’ve fetched a Bichette, Soto, or some prospect of that ilk a tier or two below the Vlads and Acunas of the world. Kyle Wright feels very blah to me. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out and if injuries play a role in the narrative.

 

 

TRADE: Capital Citcy Income/ Team Hydra

Team Hydra trades away
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Team Hydra)
Lester, Jon $63

Capital City Income trades away
Godley, Zack $8
Gattis, Evan $11

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

I like this trade for both teams. The auction proved once again that most of the assets are overpriced and not that good, otherwise the players would have been kept.¬† $63 Jon Lester has proven to be one of the better auction purchased, which says a lot about a lot.¬† He’s a top 30ish pitcher pitching even better lately. He was keepable for close to that price, but Jordan decided to cut him.

At 3-7, Hydra has clearly thrown in the towel, not even Freddie Freeman is eligible for their lineup every day. Getting two keepable assets and betting against Lester being a keeper at that price seems reasonable. Hydra has no real catcher, and with Gattis turning the corner he’s a justifiable keep if he’s playing most days.¬† They will have the rest of the year to decide whether or not to keep Godley, but in all honesty, $10 on even an average pitcher isn’t awful. It’s clear Bailey had become increasingly frustrated with Godley’s consistency, and perhaps used his last start as a sell high of sorts. The short lived Godley Income era is now over.

Getting two major league assets for a guy you weren’t going to keep seems fine. If anything, Hydra has proven to be able to spend big chunks of money on players in auction and be successful about it, so maybe they find next year’s Lester who helps them place/win¬† or sell him off again. Lester was probably a better purchase than anyone I got in auction for instance.

I don’t love that they threw in a 2nd rounder, but relievers will be available later in the draft too.

 

 

Trade: Capital City Income | We Talk Fantasy Sports

Capital City Income trades away
Alzolay, Adbert

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
Diaz, Yusniel

 

 

 

A prospect for prospect trade? Always fun to review because you can say just about anything… and I’m going to just do that.

I can’t reveal Hustle Media’s prospect rankings to non subscribers, but I’m comfortable saying I had Diaz in the top 100 and Alzolay in the top 113. So I guess I prefer Diaz. That being said it’s pretty close and I don’t have a problem with personal preference here.

¬†Alzolay has a chance for more upside in this trade because in our scoring,¬† having a good pitcher is always going to be worth more than a good outfielder. If you’re high on Alzolay, getting him at the cost of an outfield prospect a couple years away is pretty good. The trade is also really good for WTFS if you look at the roster construction. Objectively speaking, pitching is a weak point for them right now. Having made starts in AA in 2017, it’s conceivable that Alzolay may make some starts in the bigs this season.¬† Even if you’re not confident on Alzolay, it might make sense to throw some darts on pitching prospects for WTFS.

Then there’s Diaz, he had a pretty decent showing in AA with a .397 WOBA and I feel like he’s starting to garner more hype after not lighting the world on fire as a teenager.¬† The Dodgers have a ton of OF prospect depth in their system, but I expect some trades to clear that out. If Diaz is good, he will find a spot to play.

The trade is fair and¬† it’s close, but the bat seems safer here…barely.

Trade: Long Ball to LF | TBD

 

TBD trades away
O’Neill, Tyler
2018 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Capital City Ironmen)

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
2018¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†3¬†(Who’s Your Haddy?)
Foltynewicz, Mike

Bailey’s Championship take

I think this is a toss up, matter of preference trade. Third and fourth round picks are fairly interchangeable, because that deep into a draft the prospect tiers are gigantic and all the players run together. Yeah, you’d rather pick sooner than later. TBD got the better pick, so hooray.
Foltynewicz, meanwhile, is a cheap pitcher with some upside. He’s super erratic though. But as a $5 spot starter, he could be of use. He’s in the NL East, so hey, just start him against the Marlins!
O’Neill, meanwhile, is one of those fringe prospect types with a lot of variance on lists. I don’t know a ton about him to be honest. My impression is he’s one of those low contact, power happy guys. But that’s what they said about Aaron Judge! He could be just a guy, of course. The balls are juiced, so everyone hits homers.
Again, team preference here. Foltynewicz is combustible. O’Neill’s a prospect with an iffy profile, so he’s risky. Pick your poison.”

 

 

Hustles Toxic $.02

First thing that stands out about this trade is that these two teams have the worst team names in the league. And that’s say something when we have a The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses.¬† It’s been over 2 years and Joe/Fito haven’t bothered to come up with a team name and/or somehow think TBD is acceptable.¬† For Long Ball, I actually like the team name, I’m just confused why “JohnnyWise” is in parentheses after.¬† As for best team names in the league I like Who’s your Haddy and In Line for the Win.

The picks involved in this trade are pretty meaningless. It’s nice to pick earlier, but they are just wildcards at this point.¬† I thought it was interesting that neither pick that was traded was their own.

As for Folty vs Tyler O’neil, it’s a pretty even trade. Long Ball certainly needs the hitting help more than TBD. I know Joe has coveted getting Folty for a while now, so congratulations are in order. I don’t think the price dropped off much despite a poor overall season for Folty (he did improve his k rate, but his command got worse)¬† ¬†The Braves have a lot of arms coming up from the minors, so he’s going to need to prove himself in his age 27 season. Tyler Oneill is a guy who is pretty blocked at the moment (Pham, Fowler, Bader, Grichuk, and Ozuna all in front of him).¬† Perhaps this is a reason Joe decided to move him.¬† Oneill has been touted as a future 25-30 home run hitter, and can probably get there if given the shot.¬† ¬†This trade doesn’t have a clear winner now, but I’ll lean with the major league talent.

Maybe it’s the holidays, but I’m¬† genuinely happy for both these teams because they got a guy they like. Merry Christmas.