Trade: TBD | Jobu Needs a Refill

TBD trades away
3B Gio Urshela ($7)
Two 2020 4th Round Picks

JobuNeedsARefill trades away
SS Alexander Vargas (prospect)
Two 2020 2nd Round Picks

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

I like this deal for Jobu, adding a cheap 3Bman that put up a .369 wOBA last year. Honestly, I’m not a big Gio Urshela believer. He ran a high BABIP, doesn’t walk much, and probably got a lot of his power from the bouncy ball that may or may not return in 2020. I’m also not sure about his playing time. Having said all that, he’s undeniably a 28-year-old that costs a measly $7 and put up 1.548 points per plate appearance last year. That is all very good and I think you’re better off betting on real, actual production that just happened than on future picks. It’s still crazy to me that the league collectively looks at players that just did what Urshela did, then at his cost, and still seem to prefer fringe prospects that won’t debut for several years. So good on Jobu for taking the gamble that 2019 was legit. If it’s not, oh well, he’s out three prospects that won’t debut until sometime after MLB’s labor strike anyway.

For TBD, they seemingly don’t believe in Urshela either and will happily take a decent Yankee prospect and more picks to either strengthen one of the best farms in the league or flip whoever they draft to Senior Squids or Trumpa Loompas for whoever their best player is in May. It’s smart and I respect it. Good job, Josh.

The biggest loser in this trade is me, because four picks being moved means I had to update the draft sheet four times. I hated every second of it.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

After reading Bailey’s review I have some thoughts. 1) Does anyone want to make a trade with just draft picks involved and 2) Where were you when Gio Urshella was on the block?

I prefer the picks here, because I don’t really believe in Urshella as more than just an average 3bman.¬† Personally, I think one 2nd rounder should have been able to get it done.¬† That being said, taking Urshella seems like a fine gamble for Jobu to make here.¬† I think the Yankees will start him at 3b and if he hits anything close to like he did last year, he will stay, I’d lean he doesn’t.¬† Either way, ultimately Seems Fine‚ĄĘÔłŹ.

Trade: JobuNeedsARefill | Capital City Income

Capital City Ironmen trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Capital City Ironmen)
Stroman, Marcus ($49)

JobuNeedsARefill trades away
Neidert, Nick ($0 prospect)
Hayes, Ke’Bryan ($0 prospect)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (TBD)

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $.02

After months (seemingly) of everyone getting Marcus Stroman offers, he was finally traded.¬† $49 strikes me as a high salary for him. That being said, he probably goes close to this in auction, maybe slightly more depending on who else is in auction? Will there be a better pitcher in auction than Samardzja/Lester/Archer? Kershaw?¬† Stroman had a sparkling 3.22 ERA last year but his FIP/XFIP suggest he was pitcher closer to a 4 ERA pitcher. The K/9 was just under 8, which is an improvement from 2018. I’m not sure Stroman and his contract would be a guy I’d target, but I also don’t hate it.¬† Clark’s rotation got deeper and behind Flaherty, he know has Sandy Alcantara, Stroman, Wood, Houser , Mahle and Bundy, amongst a few others. Getting Stroman for Clark is at the very least a guy he can throw out for just about every start, and he needed it.

Bailey picks up a shitpick upgrade, congrats. He also made his farm stronger, a rarity for the Crapitol Shittys. KeBryan Hayes is now his #1 prospect and Nick Neidert is probably somewhere in the top 5, maybe even #2. It’s a Dynasty League after all, and you can’t always be trading for good older players and expect to be competitive forever.

I really like going after these guys.¬† Hayes was a highly regarded prospect last year and some shine wore off, but he was a beast in the 2nd half after injury, so I this was a great buy low prospect. I hate doing the “Who will be next year’s ____” type question, because usually the type of season that prompts that question is usually in reference to something that doesn’t happen too often. That being said, Nick Neidert sure seems like a possibility for next year’s Gallen.¬† A guy who looks clearly like a starter, but just needed his stuff to tick up a bit, and he looked great in the AFL. So two live close to the major prospects for a $49 Stroman seems like a great deal, especially since I assume Bailey couldn’t keep him.

Based on liking the two prospects here, I think I’d give the edge to Bailey here.¬† I think there were better less salaries pitchers on the tradeblock that could have potentially been obtained without Hayes, but maybe not.¬† I still think overall this made Clark’s team better for 2020, and if Stroman has a similar season then he might not regret any of what he gave up.

 

 

 

Trade: The Process | Capital City Income

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Kelly, Merrill ($26)

The Process trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Marshall Law)
Teheran, Julio ($33)

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $.02

Yeah well, Kelly lasted on Bailey’s team for a few hours. Most notable part about this trade is Marshall taught Bailey his trademark move, “The Pick and Roll”. The Pick and Roll is when you send a trade offer to someone where all the pieces are generally equal but you ask for a shit PICK in the offer and ROLL the dice to see if the other owner is too lazy to stand his ground on a pick of little value. Bailey hit the Pick and Roll to perfection here.

Didn’t think Bailey was keeping Kelly because of salary reasons, so I’m not sure he keeps another pitcher who is roughly the same but slightly more expensive. Ferns gets a pitcher her presumably likes more than Teheran, because the 7 dollar price difference shouldn’t be a factor for him. The numbers say Julio was slightly better on a P/IP level and Julio has been a consistent innings guy for years now, so he might be slightly more valuable, but Kelly had a few really good stretches. I think Kelly has more upside to “figure it out” in his 2nd year back in the majors. Seems Fine

Have a great weekend.

 

 

Trade: Organized Chaos | Capital City Income

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Ashby, Aaron
Roederer, Cole (former HLR Legend)
Duran, Jarren

Organized Chaos trades away
Kelly, Merrill (Former HLR Legend) ($26) and $5 Budget

 

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $.02

If you want to be a yearly powerhouse like me, you have to make yearly powerhouse moves. This was a powerhouse move for….nobody.

Capital City made his farm worse, and it was already in a dire state.¬† Chaos acquired 3 prospects from Bailey here and they are all just ok.¬† Duran got some hype early last year and then was just a guy, his ceiling his probably Nick Markakis, and Markakis is practically free as is.¬† Roederer is probably the best of these 3 prospects for¬† no other reason than he appeared on farms of teams who are yearly powerhouses.¬† If Roederer’s takes an extra step, he could be a regular corner OF bat, which is nice I suppose. Aaron Ashby is a pitcher. These guys don’t excite me much, but they are guys who are perfectly ownable in a deep league like this.¬† And they are indeed owned.

The return for Bailey is Merill Kelly and $5.¬† I like Kelly, and I think his contract is reasonable. He pitched well down the stretch this season. Ideally you’d want him for $10 or less, but in auction he probably goes for about the $26 of his current price. Maybe with innings pitched instead of starts, Kelly is worth less because of a sub 8 k/9.¬† The $5 is nice for Bailey if he actually focuses in at auction for once.

I don’t know, this one’s a head scratcher.¬† I think Chaos would have probably been better off holding Kelly and Bailey is probably better off keeping some prospects for a rainy day.¬† Instead I wrote some words.

Congrats on THE RUSH of a trade.

Trade: TBD | Marshall Law

Marshall Law trades away
Marsh, Brandon($0 Prospect)
2021 Draft Pick, Round 3 (We Talk Fantasy Sports)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 1 (Marshall Law)
Lynch, Daniel ($0 Prospect)

TBD trades away
Altuve, Jose ($67)
2021 Draft Pick, Round 4 (The Foundation)

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

Trade actually seems pretty good for Marshall I think.¬† Jose Altuve is expensive, but not THAT expensive like some guys are, and he’s the top 2bman in the game, and somehow still in his 20s. He should be elite for a couple years and at currently one of the more scarce positions. TBD has certainly rebuilt their farm in a few trades. Brandon Marsh, former HLR legend, is someone I like but probably not anything too special. He gets Jayson Werth comps, so that would be his upside.¬† Lynch is certainly one of the better SP prospects and they get the 5th overall pick too, which probably nets them someone pretty decent.¬† ¬†I kinda think I would have punted someone besides Altuve for prospects, but I’m not intimately familiar with TBD’s roster salary-wise and how much they needed to cut. That’s someone else’s job.

Marshall got a lot of prospects and then traded a bunch away (still having many good ones) to compete for 2020 and has lapped many teams who have yet to make playoffs.¬† I rank Marshall’s team close to 6 in my¬† Power Ranking (full rankings available to Hustle Media subscribers), which is a good spot to be in heading into 2020.

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

Congrats to Marshall on the acquisition of 2019 World Series Runner-Up Jose Altuve and another future shitpick. From the perspective of acquiring fantasy baseball points for your fantasy baseball team, I think this is a great deal for you. All adding 2019 World Series Runner-Up Jose Altuve cost here was two fringe prospects, a meaningless 2021 draft pick, and most of all… the fifth overall pick this year and your choice of CJ Abrams or Riley Greene. Oh man. I know who I’d choose.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Organized Chaos

Organized Chaos trades away

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • SS Carlos Correa ($89)
  • SP Ian Anderson (prospect)
  • 2020 2nd Round Pick

Jordan’s Thoughts

I think most people look at trades and shake out roughly how they value players going each direction. Freddie Freeman is a great player at a valuable price. Carlos Correa is arguably a better player, at a more expensive price, however he spent half of this year hurt and he seems to be far from reliable.

Dansby Swanson is 25 years old now and just finished his 3rd straight professional season as a below average hitter. Dansby shows flashes of his capability as a hitter. But, I’m not as high on his future as some others are. If Swanson wasn’t a first overall draft pick, I’m certain people would have moved on from his status already.

Where do you land on Ian Anderson? As someone who’s traded him before. You kind of hate to lose the potential he brings. But, you know its fleeting. I think its way too early to truly call out a winner here for either side. I think given the contexts of each of the teams. I slightly prefer betting on Correa. That’s a gamble at best.

I guess at the end of the day I would have considered Freddie Freeman pretty much untradeable. He’s such a sturdy player to build around. Correa can be better. Ian Anderson might legendary. Fun trade!

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

So where Hustle Loyalty Respect is seemingly giving points away by downgrading from Carlos Correa to Dansby Swanson, he’s also more than making up for that by going to Freddie Freeman from… uh, Garrett Cooper… as his 1Bman. To me, the gap between Correa and Swanson is palatable, especially when you bake in injury histories. The gap between Freeman and Cooper is enormous. Also HLR is saving $13, which is not quite nothing but mostly nothing. It also cost a pretty good pitching prospect and a 2nd round pick, so there’s that. I do know that lots of people have wanted Ian Anderson in trade in the last year or so. Ditto for Freeman. One interesting angle: HLR has had Correa on the trade block forever and he never got moved. Freeman, as best I can remember, has been untouchable. So I think out of Freeman and Correa, Freeman’s been the more coveted asset leaguewide, probably.

Anyway, ballparking it, I’d guess this is something like a 300-400 uptick in 2020 projected points for HLR. Possibly more. It’s a pretty big short-term win, I think. My numbers could also be way off because I did no actual math, yay!

For Organized Chaos, it’s weird in the sense that it subtracts that same amount of points and brings on a super high salary and I’m not totally sure why. If you’re giving up that many points, it signals you’re punting in 2020, but if you’re punting in 2020, Correa’s a weird guy to look to build around for 2021 just based on salary and how the league tends to view high salaries. He’s a great player if he’s giving you 7 points a game at $100 or whatever to keep, fine. My concern is that he’s played in just one full season and only played in 75 this year. Just strikes me as a big investment of talent and salary poured into a player that might not actually be reliable.

My guess would be that Chaos feels like sliding Pete Alonso from UT to 1B and then filling SS with Correa is his best bet moving forward in terms of filling his lineup and having flexibility. I’d still rather have the Freeman/Swanson side here and I don’t honestly think it’s too close, salaries and all that hoopla considered. I wonder what Chaos does from here. I feel like he needs to go add more pieces now.

Trade: JobuNeedsARefill | Marshall Law

JobuNeedsARefill trades away

  • P McCullers Jr., Lance $9
  • 2020¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†4 (The Process)

Marshall Law trades away

  • UT Andujar, Miguel $9.03

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

This trade seems even to me. I’d rather have McCullers, I guess, and I respect Marshall squeezing an extra shitpick out of an otherwise perfectly fair heads up trade. It’s the 56th overall pick, so Marshall has effectively locked up the draft rights to his choice of Chase Strumpf or maybe, just maybe, Rece Hinds. Oh man, wouldn’t that be something.

Hustle’s TOXIC $.02

This trade is all wild cards for me.I kind of don’t know what McCullers or Andjuar are. With the new IP limit rule, McCullers is protected somewhat even if he isn’t starting, so I like the floor of at least getting some innings every week with some decent strikeouts. If he bounces back to be a good starter, this is a pretty huge win for Marshall.¬† Meanwhile, the Yankees are surely going to sign someone, will an infielder enter the mix?¬† Will DH be clogged by Stanton? Is Andjuar the Yankees 1bman after Marshall traded FOR Voit and Bird?¬† This trade is pretty hard to review, which probably means at the very least it seems fair.

Underrated part of the trade is this is yet another Marshall Trade where he receives a shitpick for literally no reason.¬† If you think the 4th rounder was the reason Marshall did this trade, then I dunno.¬† Sometimes it’s ok to say “No” to releasing free shitpicks.¬† That being said, I do respect Marshall’s love for drafting minor leaguers.¬† May the FV be in your favor.

Trade: TBD | JobuNeedsARefill

JobuNeedsARefill trades away
Baz, Shane ($0 prospect)
Kieboom, Carter ($0 prospect)

TBD trades away
Sanchez, Gary ($35)
Wood, Alex ($9)

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

My knee jerk reaction is to always give TBD the benefit of the nod for a trade, they scout prospects well, so I just assume they kind of bought low on Keiboom after a forgettable major league debut and Baz is probably an Ace now. Whatever.¬† The trade does seem OK. I look back on this old trade review where Elton originally gave up Sanchez (a slightly cheaper version of him) for 4 prospects, only one of which really has legs in 2020.¬† So 2 full seasons later Sanchez gets moved for 2 prospects.¬† Now, I’m sure all 4 of those prospects looked a lot better 2 seasons ago, but point remains, if only one of these TBD scouted prospects hits, the return is probably similar.¬† So trading Sanchez 2 years too soon netted basically nothing but losing out production on one of the better catchers in the game, and he still is.

A lot of TBDs trades thus far needs to be looked at in the lens that they need to cut guys to get to $500, a rule many people hated without understanding, or they hated because of “bundling”, the least American and moral thing that can be done. I’m sure they chose which players they could get value from to get salary off their ledger and landed on Sanchez because they also acquired Carson Kelly for free and have James McCann.¬† Personally, I think both are probably a decent downgrade from Sanchez, so I assume they might be in the market for a catcher if they can get one. I do also really like Carson Kelly, but just not banking on him to be very good, and Sanchez has been elite when healthy at his position for a few years now, albeit he may have peaked.

The prospects are good. Clark gets the best or second best catcher in baseball for under 10% of his budget. I can’t say I dislike it for him.¬† He regrets this trade only if one of the prospect turns into a superstar and Sanchez sucks, which seems under 50% of both those things happening.

Good trade for…. BOTH teams.

BAILEY’s THOUGHTS

I’m going to give the win to Jobu here simply for being willing to deal prospects that we’ve all heard of for proven MLB talent. Gary Sanchez is a very good catcher and Alex Wood is a fine wildcard. Wood’s an injury-riddled season removed from being an 800 point pitcher and was a 900 point pitcher the year prior. This is a good risk. If he’s hurt again, you cut him pre-2021 and move on.

It’s possible this deal looks crappy eventually because Sanchez’s defense sucks so bad that he’s 1B or UT only while one or both of these prospects are awesome and cheap, but that’s down the road. Go get you some points now and put up a fight.

For TBD, this is just your standard Yearly Powerhouse budget move. I look forward to them trading one of Shane Baz or Carter Kieboom in June for a couple of high priced studs.

Trade: TBD | The Process

TBD trades away

The Process trades away

  • 1B Christian Walker ($7)
  • 2B/SS Terrin Vavra

    BAILEY’S (TOXIC?!) THOUGHTS

    Okay, up front, let me say that I completely understand the following: TBD is way over the salary cap and cuts need to be made or discounts need to be taken in trade; Anthony Rizzo is super expensive; Christian Walker is super cheap and only posted 168.1 fewer points than Rizzo which, given salaries, makes Walker a super attractive value alternative; Terrin Vavra has sweet, sweet cost control. This trade based on all of these facts is fine. This is fine. IT IS FINE, GUYS.

But like… this is all you get for Anthony Rizzo? Dude has had over 1,000 points in all but one season (he had 972 in 2018) since 2014 (so his success is juiced baseball-proof) and he fetches… a cheaper, lesser 1Bman and a not even top-200 prospect at this moment in time? I know who Terrin Vavra is, I get that he’s a prospect that could be a monster a year from now, whatever. This could also be the last time you ever seeBut today he’s… not been on any offseason list I’ve seen. I also get that he’s the secondary piece here but I still feel uncomfortable with seeing a perennial 1,000 point player traded for only two pieces, one of which is a 22-year-old in A-ball that the industry isn’t counting among the league’s 200 best at this moment in time.

In 2019, 56 players scored 1,000 points. In 2018, that number was 42. So to be clear, a guy not even counted among the top 150 or 200 prospects (and uh, Walker) is worth one of the top 40-50 actual scorers in the game, because salary. Fun, fun stuff.

This reeks of TBD rushing to shed budget space and hopping on the first players they liked offered up, which sadly is maybe just where we are as a league now. Maybe they love Walker, maybe they love Vavra. That’s fine. I like both guys too, although I specifically remember Organized Chaos relentlessly offering Walker to me — and everyone else — for weeks straight until finally, mercifully, Ferns accepted one of those deals. Which is funny in retrospect. Because now suddenly he’s super valuable? Anyway…

There are five or six teams with like $250 (of not real money, to be clear) to spend and half those teams haven’t really even checked in yet. Did they know Rizzo was available? Were they interested? Dear god, tell me those teams didn’t say they had no interest in a 1,000 point player and instead want to just wallow in the standings another year bEcAuSe SaLaRy aNd VaLuE (this is totally what happened). And actually, the “I don’t want them, you’re over cap and need to cut so I’ll wait for auction” is a defensible stance for those teams, except players like that never hit auction. They’re given away in trades like these. So you really can’t afford to just shun big time points scorers because of their salary or you’ll simply never have one and if you’re not trying to amass points, why are you here?

It’s a fine DG 2019 trade, it really is. Rizzo’s been hit by so many pitches, who knows, maybe the cliff finds him this year and Walker outscores him. I don’t think that’d change my point. It just, again, doesn’t feel like a “fantasy baseball trade” to me. I recently traded a pointless 5th round draft pick for Clayton Kershaw. Does that not strike anyone as symptomatic? This isn’t MLB where you’re trading millions of real dollars and contractual seasons. It’s just kinda like, sometimes, I don’t know what game we’re actually playing. The trade is fine given all the context, and maybe I’m dumb for trying to re-frame the context, I just feel like the context is unhealthy at this point.

 

Hustle’s TOXIC $.02

Jeeze, those sound like the words of a man whose team is about to lose the World Series. Bailey, please call me tonight if you need to talk. As a veteran fan of a team who just lost BACK TO BACK WORLD SERIES OF THE WORLD, I know that feel.

Anyway this trade…. SEEMS FINE TM. I agree that some of these teams with $200 or so budget not jumping on the Rizzo train is one of the more concerning aspects of this trade.¬† TBD was way over budget and chose who¬† they wanted to cut, and got a useful 1b and a prospect that they something in. Seems fine rather than cutting him for nothing. Seems way better than a 5th rounder for Kershaw.¬† Anyway, I also talked to Josh and he says he did shop Rizzo around to other teams. TBD doesn’t strike me as the team to not do their due diligence, so I believe that this was probably their best deal or close to it.

After years of driving a tank in Dynasty Grinders, Ferns has made a 2017 Baileyesque move and bought an expensive “older” player to finally compete. There’s a post somewhere where Bailey actually wrote/bragged about how he went from Tanker to Champion. Ferns certainly has the roster to compete and that’s his plan. But with only tank driving on his DG resume, is he suited for a role as a competitor in this league? Trades like this tend to say so.

These types of trades are bound to happen in a league that mimics a lot of how MLB operates. Gerrit Cole got traded for a terrible prospect haul by the Pirates, so did JD Martinez, oh wait that was another league, in MLB JD Martinez was literally traded for nothing/Dawell Lugo.¬† We play in a salary cap league, and sometimes you have a very good team like TBD does, and have to cut cap. They did that. I also don’t think Ferns paid nothing for this either, after greed he’s nearly going to pay 20% of his budget on last years 7th best 1bman. Ferns also gave away a decent 1b in Walker and an OK prospect. I guess I just don’t see this as a free acquisition.

Good trade for both teams guys!

Trade: Marshall Law | Organized Chaos

Marshall Law trades away

  • SS Nico Hoerner ($0 prospect)
  • 2022 4th Round Pick

Organized Chaos trades away

  • 2B Cavan Biggio ($1 cost controlled)
  • 2021 3rd Round Pick

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

Let’s get to the exciting part of this trade, the draft picks. I will say that this is the sort of trade that if you need a slightly better shitpick in a different year to make it “work” for you, then you shouldn’t do it.¬† Conversely if someone is asking you for a slightly better shitpick in a 1:1 trade, you should probably tell them no, unless you just love the trade and want it to happen right away.

This trade seems fine to me.¬† Biggio is in the majors and scoring points right now, so I think preferring him makes the most logical sense, which is why the draft pick confuses me here. That being said, Biggio also has strikeout issues and isn’t a lock to produce at the same level he did.¬† Nico Hoerner is a few years younger has decent enough upside to perhaps be even better than Biggio.¬† Added bonus, Hoerner was good enough to debut already and maintain his $0 cost control status. Still though, I’d prefer Biggio here, but I don’t feel so great about his future that I think risking him for a prospect I like more seems crazy.¬† I don’t know if Hoerner would be that guy for me, but if he is for Swinson I get it.

Prospects are fun.¬† Elton once ranked all the farms in Dynasty Grinders a few years ago and rated mine the best, and in that moment, I felt pretty good. Thank you Elton.¬† Even though Bailey surely has a stronger “not caring about prospects” stance than I do, I simply refuse to hate on someone believing in the abilities of a player that they view as potentially SPECIAL.