Trade: Team Hydra | Long Ball to LF

Team Hydra sends: SP Julio Teheran ($27)
Long Ball to LF sends: 1B/LF/CF Ian Desmond ($23)

Hustle’s thoughts: With Kluber and Price on the DL, I think you could argue Teheran is Hydra’s best pitcher. He’s been awful at home and very good on the road. I just feel like someone with Teheran’s track record, that he will get it together at some point and prove to be the top 30/35 SP that he is, which in this league, is incredible valuable.

Desmond has some nice eligibility (1B/lf/cf), and should average more than 5 per game. He’s playing in Coors and the Rockies paid him. That being said, the Rockies have a lot of hitters and a log jam might force him out of the lineup more than expected at the beginning of the year. I don’t have much against Desmond, but when your pitching is decimated, it’s going to be hard to get 20-30 point stars from a guy. A rotation led by Porcello, Karns, and Vargas is quite risky to say the least.

Andrew’s thoughts: Good, even trade.

I think Hydra probably tired of Teheran’s loose cannon approach to pitching, and he hasn’t had much time to pitch there, but he looks awful in his new Atlanta home park. Teheran has always been homer prone and struck me as a bit overrated, but he may have officially crossed into “broken” territory. His K’s are way down and walks are way up. I like Long Ball buying him here just because pitchers are so fickle that one small tweak could get him back on track, but it’s definitely a gamble.

Desmond, meanwhile, has been kind of meh in his first 20 games with Colorado. He started out great, but now has a meager .296 wOBA. Like Teheran, he’s flawed and risky. But unlike Teheran, he has a home park that will clearly do him favors. He also offers some versatility, as he can slot in at three different positions.

I like this as a challenge trade for both teams. Personally, I’d rather have Desmond, but it’s close.

Trade: Rocky Mtn Oysters | Preseason Double Stuffs

Rocky Mtn Oysters sends: SP Touki Toussaint (minors), SP Cody Sedlock (minors), 2020 1st Round Pick
Preseason Double Stuffs sends: SP Dylan Bundy ($9), RP Zach Britton ($12)

Hustle’s thoughts: I probably value first round picks a little bit more than most people, but even saying that, I like this trade for Dusty. The two pitchers Ferns are getting are a bit away and really aren’t too exciting for me. Maybe one is a diamond in a rough that Ferns knows something about that I don’t , but I see them combined as a 25% likelihood as putting together what Bundy has so far this season (and even that may be a high percentage). The first round pick is a nice piece to your team 2-3 years down the line if you make a good pick (which per the average fantasy player is probably well under 50%). I know Ferns didn’t have a 1st or 2nd rounder last year so maybe there is some desire to start making picks as this is the second high pick Ferns has acquired recently.

Still, this trade screams “I just want to get rid of Bundy”. He’s averaging almost 30 points per game and costs $9 and was once the top (or close to) pitching prospect in baseball. He’s probably not as good as he’s been so far, but he seems like a cheap starter you can have for a few years (with some upside). At least I believe Bundy was shopped and this was the best offer they could get.

The main problem for me with this trade is the 2 prospects acquired are somewhat borderline. If you’re going to tank, you need those prospect roster spots for top end guys you could aquire, locking yourself into Touki and Sedlock seems unwise. They are on the level of a deep guy who gets hot and starts getting some publicity who will be available on the wire. Edwin Rios (who Ferns dropped this morning) might not be that far off either guy he just acquired. If Ferns continues to make moves for the future he has less spots for minor leaguers or has to start releasing guys from previous hauls (like this one), making those previous trades less valuable.

Andrew’s thoughts: This is a weird one. I don’t trust Dylan Bundy at all despite the 29.11 points per game he’s scoring. He’s not striking guys out (6.09 K/9) and he had been suppressing homers at a crazy rate. His career HR/9 is 1.28, but he’s at 0.94 today. His career HR/FB rate is 11.2%, but it’s at 8% today. His 4.78 xFIP is way higher than his 3.92 FIP. I just see so much regression in this profile.

But, I mean…. 29.11 fantasy points per game. At some point, fantasy points are really what matters, right? Given that, I’d rather have Bundy for cheap ($11 next year is nothing) and just hope he hangs on. Toussaint and Sedlock are fine, but they also both have 40-ish IP at A+. They’re two years away? Three? And they’re pitchers, so that assumes they don’t hurt themselves at any point along that timeline.

And the first round pick is almost three years away from even being made. To me, the pick is more exciting as a future trade chip if the rest of the team can turn the corner. If the Double Stuffs can be competitive early next year, now that draft pick is another asset in play for a trade to improve.

I don’t fault the Stuffs for selling high on Bundy, but this to me isn’t high. Also, if they’re punting the year and rebuilding, they might have essentially clogged two minors spots with risky pitchers that aren’t close. We really need like 50 minor league spots so that you can acquire guys without being forced to dump comparable ones, and so that you don’t reach a threshold where roster spots prohibit improvement. Again, I don’t love Bundy, but he’s been good enough fantasy-wise and he’s cheap enough, that even a rebuilding team should want him.

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | Preseason Double Stuffs

 

PDS Receives: Blake Snell $1 (P), Nick Senzel $0, CCI 1st round pick 2018

 

CCI Recieves: Giancarlo Stanon $74

 

Hustle’s Thoughts: I think today marks the exact one year anniversary of their trade last year (the Sonny Gray, Miggy, Bellinger deal)  and my how the tables have turned (180 degrees). The deal itself is pretty similar to last years, just a lot less pieces ( I believe 10 players were involved last year).

 

Anyway Bailey and Ferns being in a trade makes it very easy for me to rip on one of them, but truth be told it’s pretty reasonable.

I think a healthy Stanton at $74 is probably a very good value and someone Bailey would have no problem keeping at that price, or even $10 more. Problem is the obvious, health. Chances are if Ferns is out of this in a month or 2 he runs the risk of Stanton being hurt and having to make a difficult decision in the offseason or take less. Timing wise, it’s a pretty good time to trade Stanton if you’re a seller and can get a haul.

The Haul. In terms of the pick, who knows.  Per Joe Rawlings the draft is weak this year and this is likely to be a pick somewhere between 10-16. That being said, there’s always going to be a good player to grab and this lottery ticket puts you in a position to get one.

Nick Senzel (.124 ISO  .350 WOBA 2017) seems like a good prospect. I don’t think he has the offensive upside of a Stanton, but he seems to be a lock to make the majors by next season at the latest and be the future 3b for the Reds.  Currently Ferns has Ryon Healy and Maikel Franco, both are pretty young. I guess the hope is one of these guys will break out and be their sure fire 3b or they could all be just solid 4.5 ppg producers. Senzel will obviously be the cheapest one to carry next year at 0 or $1.

 

Blake Snell: Snell was an early pick in last year’s inaugural prospect draft and I believe Bailey traded into the first round to get Snell.  Currently he’s averaging just under 16 points a start. His HR/9 is up, his K rate is down, but he’s young.  Playing in the AL East will do him no favors but the ballpark should contain some damage.  I’m not sure we know how much Snell will cost next year, but I can’t imagine it will be that much at the rate his season is going.

If one of these three assets hit big, then it’s a good haul for Ferns, but we won’t likely know for a while, and in the meantime his team is considerably worse without Stanton.

All in all, I see this as a Ferns getting 3 interesting pieces for one of the best bats in the game.  One wonders if with Stanton gone if Miggy will stay put on PDS. After all, Ferns now has the overwhelming amount of budget space to keep Miggy and then some.  In fact, he could probably look to add a piece with the budget he’s created. Perhaps Giancarlo Stanton on 5/11/2018?

 

 

 

Trade: The Wilfred Brimley Fightin’ Diabeetuses | Hustle Loyalty Respect

The Wilfred Brimley Fightin’ Diabeetuses send: SP Luis Perdomo ($1)
Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (minors), 2018 2nd Round Pick

Andrew’s thoughts: Seems alright for both teams. HLR can afford to punt a promising teenager with several years between him and his first MLB at-bat in exchange for a cheap, quality starting arm.

Perdomo gets to toss in a favorable park and league and his FIP and xFIP both look good, plus he’s striking out more hitters this year than last. His 0.32 HR/9 rate will probably regress (he was at 1.41 last year over 146.2 IP), but it’s 2017, so even a HR/9 around 1.00 is passable.

I like Tatis as a prospect, but our minors aren’t yet deep enough and the salary aspect makes me give priority to guys with closer ETAs. If you’re WBFD, it’s fine, because Perdomo likely isn’t carrying you out of the cellar anyway. But I prefer HLR’s return here.

Trade: Rocky Mtn Oysters | Preseason Double Stuffs

Rocky Mtn Oysters sends: 3B Ryon Healy ($5)
Preseason Double Stuffs sends: SP Matt Cain (FA)

Andrew’s thoughts: I don’t find either of these players super exciting, but I’d much rather have Healy because he’s only 25 and has a .355 wOBA over his first 403 MLB plate appearances. That’s quite good, though he’s probably more of a back-up than a guy you want starting. Also, his parents spelled “Ryan” wrong and I find that irksome.

Cain, on the other hand, was most recently a passable starting pitcher in like 2013. I guess you could use him as a streamer exclusively when he’s pitching at home, but he’s been awful there over the last few years. It’s not like we award points for getting Cy Young votes six seasons ago.

Like… Scott Feldman, who I picked up off waivers last week, has out-performed Cain’s FIP since 2013, when he had a 4.03 and Cain had a 3.93. So even then, it was close. So why trade Healy for Cain when you could just grab Feldman off waivers for free? Also, can I please trade Feldman now for a decent hitter? Please and thank you.

Trade: TBD | Hustle Loyalty Respect

TBD sends: SP Robert Gsellman ($5)
In Shorter Line 4 the Win sends: LF/RF Avisail Garcia ($3)

Andrew’s thoughts: Garcia currently has a .418 BABIP, so his numbers are likely to fall. I suppose the power could be real, but everyone hits for power these days.

Gsellman’s FIP/xFIP (4.86/4.06) have him not too far off line from a league average pitcher. I think as your SP5 or SP6, he’s an okay gamble that you can roll out in favorable match-ups. He’s also only 23 so… “upside.”

I’ll take the pitcher.

Trade: TBD | In Shorter Line 4 the Win

TBD sends: 3B Yoan Moncada ($1), SP Michael Kopech (minors), SP Cal Quantrill (minors), two 2018 1st Round Picks
In Shorter Line 4 the Win sends: SP Noah Syndergaard ($82)

Andrew’s thoughts: This trade occurred on April 26 and immediately became a disaster for TBD.

Syndergaard was supposed to take the mound on the day this trade was processed, but that start got pushed to the next day. On the 27th, he was scratched from a start due to “biceps tendinitis.” Then, he started on Sunday, April 30. In that start, he promptly got knocked around by the Nationals — five hits and two walks in 1.1 IP — before injuring himself on a pitch to Bryce Harper. He came out of the game having scored -4.5 fantasy points. Turns out, he has a partial tear in his lat. He’ll be on the shelf for three months or so. Just horrible, horrible luck for TBD. Like… if Syndergaard misses the year, which seems well within the range of possible outcomes here, how do you keep him at $82 next year? Or if he comes back but is rusty and struggles, or re-injures himself, or displays any sign of long-term volatility, how do you not send him back to auction? It’s totally possible that TBD spent three very good prospects and two premium draft picks to get -4.5 fantasy points.

Hindsight here is 20/20 but man, this just sucks for TBD. Ultimately, because they dealt picks and prospects, their already very good team is mostly unaffected. But they’re now down a lot of trade chips.

Before the injury though, I thought this swap was okay for both squads. I would rather have healthy Syndergaard than all the stuff IL4W got, but I understand why, if your team isn’t scoring points and is sitting at the bottom of the standings, you’d do this. Pitchers are time bombs. Obviously. So Aaron and his cohorts at IL4W mitigated some risk, took on a bunch of young, cheap talent with upside, and gave themselves a few more paths to being good down the road. Even if only two of the five pieces they got become useful, they’ll be useful and cheap. But pitchers are also a big part of winning games in this league (especially in 2017 when all the pitchers stink) and Syndergaard has essentially been Clayton Kershaw Lite since last year. To me, Kershaw is the type of talent you empty the chambers for. Syndergaard is that same type of talent.

If I’m TBD, I pull this trigger too. Not now, of course. But at the time they did it. Clearly they couldn’t have predicted the injury. And yeah, they surrendered Corey Kluber and Dellin Bettances in the midst of a pennant race just last year for Moncada alone. But trade markets aren’t static and, again, that was a late season deal. You pay more earlier. Go look at last year’s trade log, you’ll see. I don’t have a huge problem with the seemingly faulty logic of trading an ace for a prospect, then later on trading that prospect plus a bunch of other prospects for a different ace. Stuff changes. I also think if you get the opportunity to land a transcendent talent and really want to take it, well, take it, even if it means forking over a bunch of your best lottery tickets.

As arguably the best team in the league with or without Syndergaard, I really like the killer instinct and the aggressiveness it takes to get a deal like this done. And hey, it’s conceivable that TBD gets Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner back in time for the playoffs. I’d argue the potential of that is worth the same, if not more, than the potential that Moncada becomes a dirt cheap version of 2016 Jonathan Villar*.

* So… we realize Moncada’s clock started last year and so he’s in his $1 season, in which IL4W seems unlikely to compete, right? Next year he’s $3 minimum, more if his projections are good. Three bucks is nothing if he becomes 2016 Villar or even Anthony Rendon or whoever. But the point is, the two most valuable years of a player’s cost control status are the year they’re first promoted ($0) and their sophomore season ($1). IL4W is effectively getting zero tangible benefit from those two years from Moncada. If Moncada kills it for them in his $1 season, that’s cool and all, but IL4W still probably isn’t making headway as a team and the better his stats are this year, the better his projections will be next year, and the higher that salary will jump. This certainly isn’t a huge knock to Moncada’s future value, but is something to keep in mind, I think.

Speaking to Moncada specifically though, I do wonder just how amazing he can be here. He strikes out a ton, which I don’t think will matter, because when he makes contact it’s really, really good contact. But the stolen bases aren’t big factors in our scoring like they are in a 5×5 and if he’s whiffing more than 30% of the time against Triple-A pitchers, what happens when he steps into an American League with Sale, Verlander, Carrasco, Kluber, Darvish, Keuchel, etc? It’s not like he’ll get to tee off against Mike Fiers every day, y’know?

For IL4W though, I can speak from experience that the decision to start selling sucks. It means your team is poop emoji. But aside from the super lucky timing, I like that they recognized not just a poor win/loss record, but also a deep deficit in points, and went ahead and made that call early. By doing so, they didn’t have to compete with any other teams, could set their own market, and could come away with the assets they wanted. And I actually think they still have a decent roster and can win some weeks this year, even if their playoff odds aren’t particularly good.

Trade: Who’s Your Haddy? | In Shorter Line 4 the Win

Who’s Your Haddy? sends: SS Willy Adames (minors), 2019 1st Round Pick
In Shorter Line 4 the Win sends: SP Drew Pomeranz ($7), 2018 4th Round Pick

Andrew’s thoughts: I like this for both sides given the context of the two teams. For IL4W, they’re basically calling it a season already, so cashing out an okay starter in a rough home park for a top-25-ish (?) prospect and future draft capital seems good.

For Haddy, he takes a flier on a pitcher that I think is underrated but not without risk. There are some injury concerns around Pomeranz, but he strikes out a ton of guys and is currently rolling out a FIP under 4.00. I think the longer you wait, the more you can get for prospects (because more teams are punting and buying them), so maybe Haddy could’ve eventually gotten a more reliable guy for Adames and his pick or added a little sweetener to the pot and ended up with someone better. But the earlier you get a guy, the earlier you can start accruing his points. So it’s fine.

Trade: Rocky Mtn Oysters | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: 3B Matt Davidson (FA)
Rocky Mtn Oysters sends: 1B Hanley Ramirez ($17)

Andrew’s thoughts: I see this as HLR cashing out a guy that was on waivers five days ago and only cost $1 of FAAB in exchange for a guy who was the 35th highest scoring hitter as recently as last year. That seems like good decision making to me.

As for Davidson, well, I don’t dislike him. I once had him in my minors in another league, so I liked him enough for that. Anyway, he’s currently rocking a 2.5% walk rate (awful!), 42.5% strikeout rate (Byron Buxton is the only player alive who thinks this is good), and a totally sustainable .556 BABIP.

I’m really not sure why you’d punt a player with Hanley’s track record of performance for a guy with 40 good plate appearances, particularly when the numbers behind those 40 plate appearances all scream regression. But hey, whatever.

EDIT: This review was written on April 25 and I forgot to publish it. But it has proved true so far. Since the 25th of April, Hanley has gone bonkers, scoring 77.6 points at a 9.7/game clip. Davidson, meanwhile, has -6.5 total points and six at-bats in his team’s last four games, seemingly becoming a bench option for the White Sox. HLR robbed on this one.