Trade: Rocky Mountain | Team Hydra

Rocky Mnt Oysters sends: 2016 58th overall selection (4th round)
Team Hydra sends:¬†2016 96th overall selection (6th round) & $10 in ’16 Auction Budget

Jordan’s thoughts: Immediately this seems like an impressive overpay for a draft pick for Team Hydra. Dusty gets to sail back a couple rounds for a handsome price. There’s not much else to say about this deal in other than if I were offered this deal I take the auction budget ten out of ten times. Team Hydra then used the pick on shortstop Jorge Mateo from the Yankees organization. His speed and defense should give him an everyday job, but to be worth this kind of deal you’re expecting him to reach levels of development that so few players actually reach. Time will tell, but this seems like a bad bet for Team Hydra.

Trade: Team Aarnicdy | TBD

Team Aarnicdy sends: 2016 56th overall selection (4th round)
Team TBD sends:¬†2016 142nd overall selection (9th round) & $7 in ’16 Auction Budget

Jordan’s thoughts: I like this deal for both teams. I believe in the value of $7. It won’t buy a great player, but if you can now easily bid $2 on 5-7 players versus settling for a dollar, you now have buying power to pick those guys at the end of the draft instead of being stuck. While the early arguement is that it just raises the prices of those players. I’ll still argue that having the flexibility of picking those players is invaluable. The 56th overall pick was used to select outfielder¬†Cornelius Randolph. The 10th overall selection out of high school in the 2015 minor league draft is just 18 years old, extremely raw, and really seems like a reach to trade up for.

Dynasty Grinder Podcast – Episode 5

Jordan has a short chat with the three headed ownership of Team Hydra. There’s some Hail Hydra’s, Ryan lacks shame, and overall its laugh. Come have a listen and get to know another team in Dynasty Grinders.

Trade: Capital City | BNL

Capital City Ironmen sends:¬†2016 30th overall selection (2nd round)¬†& $11 in ’16 Auction Budget
BetterNameLater sends: 2016 13th overall selection (1st round)

Jordan’s thoughts: With the second trade in the Dynasty Grinders history I like it again for both teams. It’s easy to assume that BNL felt that the player they could pick wasn’t likely to be useful right now and they move down to a spot where they’ll get a similar prospect anyway. There’s a lot of ways to spin that $11 they got, in an auction knowing you can one up 2-3 players you want a few times adds some nice insurance. For Capital City, they use the selection immediately to grab prospect Blake Snell. Snell shot up the prospect rankings in 2015, and pitches in the Tampa Bay organization that is well known for churning out good pitchers. Bravo to both sides.

Update:¬†The picks are in, so I felt like commenting on that as well. We already knew that Snell was the 13th pick. The 30th pick turned into SS ¬†Franklin Barreto, a top prospect for the Athletics. It remains to be seen if Barreto pans out in a league like this, but he has as high hopes as any of the other top rated short stops. It wouldn’t have been a huge jump to see Barreto to go in the 1st round. I like this trade for both teams. That being said, I’d rather have Snell.

 

Trade: Rocky Mountain | TBD

Rocky Mountain Oysters sends: 2016 7th overall selection (1st round)
TBD sends:¬†2016 78th overall selection (5th round) &¬†$25 in ’16 Auction Budget

Jordan’s thoughts: This is a pretty solid trade. I like it for both teams. TBD doesn’t sacrifice either one of their first two picks to get another first round draft pick. The cost of 25 auction budget could be devastating, but without any pre-cursor draft, it’s hard to judge what kind of talent that player will be. For RMO I like getting the cash, and falling back to the fifth round might not be all that much different in the grand scheme of things. The extra $25 provides a lot of flexibility in the draft coming up.

Update: The 7th overall selection was used on Rangers prospect OF – Lewis Brinson. High upside, could be a real star, a tad raw. Interesting use of auction funds to get a guy that’s a bit further off. Time will tell how the decision plays out.

Update 2: And now we know the 78th overall pick was used for Touki Toussaint. Toussaint is a former first round pick, high stuff, underdeveloped command, make or break pitcher. You love the upside if he figures it out. The downside is a bullpen pitcher. For the 78th pick its a good spot for RMO. Again I’m going to side with RMO getting the favorable side of the deal.

Rule changes, they’re here!

After a week of polling we are now settled on four distinct rule changes, mixed with some minor clarifications to clear some things up. With that let us get right to it.

1) Free Agent Keepers –

Current: Acquired free agents currently are not keepable.
Proposed: Acquired major league free agents would start with a salary of $3, which to keep the following season would be subject to the $2 raise and greed rule. Minor league free agents would be keepable without incurring a salary.

With a 12 to 4 vote, the league has decided to change the rule to the proposed rule. With that being said, all free agents will be now be keepable.

2) Position eligibility –

Current: To qualify at a position a hitter must play 5 games at position this season or 10 games last season.
Proposed: To qualify at a position a hitter must play 5 games at position this season or 15 games last season.

With a 10 to 6 vote, the league has decided to keep the rule as it is currently written. This makes a difference for a few players, but ultimately the league has decided!

The next two votes were closer, but were decided by the league as well.

3) Initial waiver wire order – It wasn’t set per the rules.

Option 1: Reverse order of minor league draft.
Option 2: Random draw.

With a vote of 9 to 7, the league has voted to reverse draw the waiver order from the minor league draft as stated in option 1.

4) Change top 30 protection to top 2 per team.

Current: Currently players with the top 30 salaries in the league are protected from greed voting.
Proposed: Remove protections from players with top 30 salaries. Cost controlled (arbitration) players remain protected.

Finally with a vote of 9 to 7, the league has voted to keep the current rules as it comes to spending greed money on players. Players who are in the top 30 of salaries, will remain protected as well as players who are in the arbitration (cost-controlled) status.

With that we’re one step closer to the league getting going. These changes will be reflected in the league rules and setup next week, and will be highlighted to show that they’ve changed.

What is Billy Hamilton worth?

When debating value of fantasy baseball players there is always going to be some discrepancy between one league to another. There’s even a difference when you look at different daily fantasy sites. They all have slightly different scoring or valuation of each player, causing some need for adjustments on the user end. This is more true with Billy Hamilton than almost any other player. Standard Roto fantasy baseball has Hamilton as a quite valuable outfielder. Stolen bases are 20% of hitting value and Hamilton whether or not a good ballplayer, is amazing at stealing bases.

Stolen bases in Dynasty Grinders here have value, but it is no where near 20%. Much like in real life, stolen bases lack value. They are sexy, they are exciting, but even in the post-steroid era where smallball is making a comeback, their value is capped off well below 20%. Dynasty Grinders gives you 2.5 points for every stolen base. A hitter getting on base and stealing a bag is worth a bit less than a hitter who just gets a double. Why? Well the run scoring valuation of a double is higher than a single and stolen base. Doubles score runs more often. Simple as that.

Last year, Billy Hamilton the hitter was quite awful on all accounts. .251 wOBA, 52 wRC+, his offense was worth -12.2 runs according to FanGraphs.com. That being said Hamilton the baseball player does add value, his base running made up that difference adding 13.4 runs, plus his defense in center field by all accounts is quite good. In standard Roto you can eat the bad hitting and make it up elsewhere, but last year he stole 57 bags, and that’s hard to find these days. Billy Hamiltion’s potential for 70+ steals is category winning for Roto. His potential for Dynasty Grinders is not winning you much of anything.

Yet that does not make him worthless. In, 2014, Hamilton would have added some value. If Billy Hamilton is more like 2014 than 2015, he’s certainly worth a flier in DG. If you think he’s better in 2016 than he’s ever been (low bar to jump over), he starts making some serious sense. Last year his OBP was .274. His BABIP was .264. Adjusting that to 2014 levels using regression is easy enough. Hamilton’s walk rate did slightly improve last year and he struck out less. What little power he did feature before 2015 disappeared. Maybe that comes back? It’s quite possible.

What makes Hamilton so intriguing, is that you hear about him in the mainstream fantasy media all the time, he’s a top 20 OF. In Dynasty Grinders he’s not likely a top 20 CF. But for him to jump into the top 10 he only needs to be a little bit better. If he improves his walk rate a little. Improves his luck on BABIP (if you’re so damn fast get on base more often, pop up less!). Gets some of his power back. Plays everyday. If he can do all of that. Well then we’re talking. He’s 25 years old. If he somehow slashed a .250/.310/.360 slash line with 70 stolen bases (again not as valuable but they do count). It gets interesting.

All that wishing and hoping aside, there is just a good of a case that in a 16 team league with 30 man major league rosters, for Hamilton to go undrafted in the initial draft. He probably will get drafted. The stark difference between Dynasty Grinders and traditional fantasy is crystal clear when evaluating Hamilton.