Trade: Organized Chaos | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Organized Chaos trades away:

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away:

  • 1B Grant Lavigne
  • SP Lucas Sims ($5.50)
  • 2020 3rd Round Pick

BAILEY’s Thoughts

If I had to bet money on who in this league is the biggest “Rick Porcello fan,” I’d put money on myself. Yet… despite Porcello being relentlessly offered to everyone, I never pulled the trigger. And I’m okay with it.

Porcello’s been a good, if not great, pitcher throughout his career who offers a solid, boring floor and some occasional clunkers. He’s durable and reliable. This year there have been more clunkers than normal, but at least one (the stupid London) game you can safely disregard. Going forward, I expect Porcello to be a decent depth starter that usually won’t kill you. In this league, my problem is his salary for what he is. If there weren’t salaries, his value goes up, in my opinion. But because there are and he’s $25 ($27 to keep, minimum)… I find him in a weird gray area of keepable players. You could keep him. But I wouldn’t, personally. Those clunkers I just mentioned have been going up in frequency and the floor seems to be getting lower and lower, which is all fine because it’s still a fairly safe floor, but Porcello at $27 isn’t all that different from a bunch of $10 or less dart throws. I suspect that — and what I’ve got to say, was a crazy high asking price — is what made this trade take so long to finally happen. Another thing about Porcello: there’s great temptation to sit him in tough match-ups, but he’s a pretty good pitcher overall, so sometimes he does really well in those games. He’s good to randomly dominate the Yankees on your bench once a year. Which does you zero good and is really frustrating.

In the end, Swinson got, for starters, basically a fringe top-150 prospect in Grant Lavigne, who I feel like falls outside the top-200 in most circles if not for the prospect of playing home games in Coors Field. I haven’t paid much attention to him, but I believe Hustle offered him to me recently, and one thing I think I know about Hustle is this: he’s really good at finding prospects (“he’s the single greatest prospector I’ve ever played with, hands down, no exceptions” – Steve Fernsler), but if he offers you one, he’s either getting something awesome in return or feels comfortable replacing the guy with someone else off waivers. I think the latter is the case here. Lavigne’s a teenage 1Bman-only prospect that beasted last year but has underwhelmed this year over a larger sample. So basically, the upside isn’t there and the wait time is too long for a guy that plays a position that’s super easy to fill, so this trade shuttles him off with profit and lets Hustle add a better lottery ticket off waivers. Seems fine!

So in addition to Lavigne, there’s Lucas Sims, who was once a top prospect but sort of fell off the map, then reappeared this year in Cincinnati. He had one good start in May and then… vanished. I mean, not vanished. He’s alive and pitches. But it’s in the minors, where he’s got a 1.09 HR/9. He’s also not cost controlled, so he’s $7 to keep right now, which really is fine. If he was cost controlled he’d be $1 instead and the $6 is pretty irrelevant. But still. That makes Sims a tad less valuable. Cost control is life.

And finally, there’s a third round pick which… okay, cool. Whatever.

In the end, this trade is weird to me as someone who received a ton of Porcello offers over the months. This deal is Porcello for Lavigne in my eyes, which is… well, seems like a way lower asking price than I ever recall seeing. Maybe I’m just not high enough on Sims and don’t care enough about draft picks (I recently traded a first rounder for Andrelton Simmons and legitimately have no idea why, but someone else actually traded a pick for a relief pitcher so I don’t feel as bad about that anymore). And again, if one owner maybe, possibly thinks they can pick a better prospect up off waivers tomorrow in Lavigne… what’s that say about the haul?

Anyway, trade is obviously fine overall. I’d rather have HLR’s side here even if cutting Porcello at year’s end, but I at least like knowing that Coach shopped and shopped and presumably landed here, on a deal he likes.

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | Hustle Loyalty Respect

CAP sends: 1B Yordan Alvarez (minors), SP Nate Pearson (minors), SS Freddy Galvis ($5)
HLR sends: 3B/RF Nicholas Castellanos ($20), CF Blake Rutherford (minors), SS Addison Russell ($44), $9 2018 Auction Budget

Jordan’s thoughts: I am inclined to trust these two teams know what they’re doing given that they appeared in last year’s championship. But who knows? I am Jordan and I sure as hell do not know.

In this deal, HLR seems to just be adding prospects in order to flip them after the season starts to one of the tanking teams. Yordan Alvarez could be awesome, or he could be AJ Reed in left field. Nate Pearson could be Noah Syndergaard, or he could blow his arm out. More likely, he shoots up prospect lists in 2018 and HLR trades him for profit. Or the Blue Jays announce that Pearson is being converted to a relief pitcher and HLR trades him to Hydra for all their good players. I’ve got to be perfectly honest. I am Jordan and since these players are prospects, I have never heard of them.

The best piece going to HLR in this deal might just be Freddy Galvis, who is not particularly good but shows up every day. These same things were once said about Andrelton Simmons and he is now a valuable fantasy commodity. As a True Grinder™, Galvis embodies what HLR is all about, minus the penchant for trolling. Maybe HLR will flip Freddy to one of the teams that don’t have an obvious resolution at SS going into the season, who could use the cheap, at-least-he-plays-every-day depth.

Also, why did HLR include the $9? Does he just hate Shohei Ohtani? It seems like that money would’ve been better served adding one of the many awesome available players at auction, like James Shields or Mitch Moreland.

For the defending points and league champion, well, what was the point of this? Castellanos is, like, the third best 3B on this roster? Maybe second best, since the new humidor in Arizona is guaranteed to turn Rake Lamb back into plain old Jake Lamb. At any rate, CAP has no real need for Castellanos and should’ve just saved the prospects for in-season, at which point they could be flipped to a tanker for an obvious need. Now that the payout structure has been changed unilaterally to reward the teams with the best farm systems (forgot to tell you guys this, sorry, telling you here and now, thanks!), trading off prospects seems especially odd.

Blake Rutherford is just whatever. He could be awesome (yay!), could be the next AJ Reed (sad!), or could just be the same guy as Yordan Alvarez (yawn!). He’s on some lists. He’s not on other lists. Lists are important and I am sure that CAP hopes one day, Rutherford is on them all. Again, this guy is a prospect, so I, Jordan, have never heard of him.

The strange part of this trade is the inclusion of $44 Addison Russell. He’s basically the same guy as Galvis — not super efficient but plays every day; reliable; boring — but costs $39 more. Why not just keep Galvis, CAP? Even with the $9, Russell is too expensive. Sure, Russell has some upside, but he’s just such a risky guy to go out and acquire and then keep. So weird.

Final thought: HLR is getting the most cost controlled players, therefore HLR wins the trade. Freddy Galvis is interesting. Addison Russell is expensive. Castellanos has a funny name. I am Jordan and I approve this trade review.

We Talk Fantasy Sports’ thoughts: Here is how this trade would look if it were a graph: