Trade: Organized Chaos | Jobu Needs a Refill

Organized Chaos trades away
SS Carlos Correa ($103)
CF Cole Roederer (prospect)

Jobu Needs a Refill trades away
SS Royce Lewis (prospect)
3B Gio Urshela ($10)
CF Kyle Isbel

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

This is a weird one.

I didn’t really understand the first Carlos Correa trade (for relatively cheap Freddie Freeman and cost controlled Dansby Swanson, where Correa also came with a sweet, sweet prospect) and I don’t get this one either. I’m mostly surprised there was a buyer for Correa. I like him, but he hasn’t topped 481 plate appearances since 2016. I think he’s an awesome player, but he’s just never been healthy enough to rely on and being 25-years-old is offset by costing $103 and being an easy greed target, so there’s seemingly no long-term value beyond 2020. If Jobu needs to re-sell him this season, he should have buyers (hand raised emoji here), but even then, is someone like Long Ball or TBD giving up a Royce Lewis caliber prospect plus other pieces to rent Correa for the rest of 2020? I doubt it.

I mean, the salary is fine if Correa’s a bonafied 600+ PA stud. But he’s not. Anthony Rizzo is being kept at $95 and that seems alright. I’m keeping Bryce Harper at $117 because, well, why throw him back to auction to maybe save $20 to redistribute to Michael Wacha? Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard are on the trade block and priced similarly, but they somehow feel more reliable and impactful to me than Correa. Ultimately I think it’s okay to just build your best team possible for $500 and more or less ignore the individual salaries, but that sort of assumes your high salary guys are dependable. Like, Rizzo has topped 600 PA in seven straight years. If he gets hurt, that’d suck, but betting on his durability is a fairly safe bet.

I’m not a big Gio Urshela believer, but simply due to attrition, it wouldn’t shock me if Urshela outscores Correa in 2020. Or at least performs comparably. He won’t if they play the same number of games. But if Correa misses 50+ again, it seems possible.

Anyway, I do like that Jobu is attempting to field the best team possible in 2020. Prospects like Royce Lewis are rarely made available. So even if I don’t love the trade, I think it’s smart of Jobu to go against the grain and be the owner willing to make these guys available. If you’re okay saying that your entire prospect lot is not off limits, you can gain access to tons of actual major league points-scorers. Royce Lewis is, what… a top 10-15 prospect by most lists? So if he’s available and every other team is refusing to even discuss players if they’re on a top 100 list at all, maybe even top 150-200, you can potentially find an edge for yourself.

I’m also not quite sure how much I like Lewis. He was absolutely abysmal last year. The tools and the scouting reports are there and the lists love him, but how often do truly elite prospects have years as terrible as he just did? Having said that, the prospect love in this league suggests to me you could’ve gotten a massive haul for Lewis as soon as auction ended.

I have no idea who wins this trade. Probably Chaos. Although maybe not, since I still feel like if he rolled back that first Correa trade his team would be in a far better spot today.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

I think Correa is a great player, obviously has injury risk and is expensive, but if he helps you compete and you have the cash, he’s great to have.¬† My main issue with this trade for Jobu is he waited until Late January to put up an elite asset¬† on the trade block in hopes of getting win now pieces. Strategically the move to get Correa for a prospect seems fine, and it doesn’t hurt that Lewis’ stock took a hit this offseason.¬† That being said, I feel like the return for Lewis could have probably been better if he was shopped earlier and multiple teams were still holding on to good expensive players.

Urshella was also someone who took¬† 2 2nd rounders and an OK prospect in¬† Alexander Vargas to acquire for JOBU.¬† So in order to get an over $100 dollar player it cost a super elite prospect and 2 2nd round picks (+Vargas).¬† That just hasn’t been the going rate for Correa in 5 years of this league, and i think I’m in a position to know having owned him for most of it.

That being said, JOBU clearly has set up his team to make a run for it this year and his team certainly got better with this deal.

Trade: TBD | The Process

TBD trades away

The Process trades away

  • 1B Christian Walker ($7)
  • 2B/SS Terrin Vavra

    BAILEY’S (TOXIC?!) THOUGHTS

    Okay, up front, let me say that I completely understand the following: TBD is way over the salary cap and cuts need to be made or discounts need to be taken in trade; Anthony Rizzo is super expensive; Christian Walker is super cheap and only posted 168.1 fewer points than Rizzo which, given salaries, makes Walker a super attractive value alternative; Terrin Vavra has sweet, sweet cost control. This trade based on all of these facts is fine. This is fine. IT IS FINE, GUYS.

But like… this is all you get for Anthony Rizzo? Dude has had over 1,000 points in all but one season (he had 972 in 2018) since 2014 (so his success is juiced baseball-proof) and he fetches… a cheaper, lesser 1Bman and a not even top-200 prospect at this moment in time? I know who Terrin Vavra is, I get that he’s a prospect that could be a monster a year from now, whatever. This could also be the last time you ever seeBut today he’s… not been on any offseason list I’ve seen. I also get that he’s the secondary piece here but I still feel uncomfortable with seeing a perennial 1,000 point player traded for only two pieces, one of which is a 22-year-old in A-ball that the industry isn’t counting among the league’s 200 best at this moment in time.

In 2019, 56 players scored 1,000 points. In 2018, that number was 42. So to be clear, a guy not even counted among the top 150 or 200 prospects (and uh, Walker) is worth one of the top 40-50 actual scorers in the game, because salary. Fun, fun stuff.

This reeks of TBD rushing to shed budget space and hopping on the first players they liked offered up, which sadly is maybe just where we are as a league now. Maybe they love Walker, maybe they love Vavra. That’s fine. I like both guys too, although I specifically remember Organized Chaos relentlessly offering Walker to me — and everyone else — for weeks straight until finally, mercifully, Ferns accepted one of those deals. Which is funny in retrospect. Because now suddenly he’s super valuable? Anyway…

There are five or six teams with like $250 (of not real money, to be clear) to spend and half those teams haven’t really even checked in yet. Did they know Rizzo was available? Were they interested? Dear god, tell me those teams didn’t say they had no interest in a 1,000 point player and instead want to just wallow in the standings another year bEcAuSe SaLaRy aNd VaLuE (this is totally what happened). And actually, the “I don’t want them, you’re over cap and need to cut so I’ll wait for auction” is a defensible stance for those teams, except players like that never hit auction. They’re given away in trades like these. So you really can’t afford to just shun big time points scorers because of their salary or you’ll simply never have one and if you’re not trying to amass points, why are you here?

It’s a fine DG 2019 trade, it really is. Rizzo’s been hit by so many pitches, who knows, maybe the cliff finds him this year and Walker outscores him. I don’t think that’d change my point. It just, again, doesn’t feel like a “fantasy baseball trade” to me. I recently traded a pointless 5th round draft pick for Clayton Kershaw. Does that not strike anyone as symptomatic? This isn’t MLB where you’re trading millions of real dollars and contractual seasons. It’s just kinda like, sometimes, I don’t know what game we’re actually playing. The trade is fine given all the context, and maybe I’m dumb for trying to re-frame the context, I just feel like the context is unhealthy at this point.

 

Hustle’s TOXIC $.02

Jeeze, those sound like the words of a man whose team is about to lose the World Series. Bailey, please call me tonight if you need to talk. As a veteran fan of a team who just lost BACK TO BACK WORLD SERIES OF THE WORLD, I know that feel.

Anyway this trade…. SEEMS FINE TM. I agree that some of these teams with $200 or so budget not jumping on the Rizzo train is one of the more concerning aspects of this trade.¬† TBD was way over budget and chose who¬† they wanted to cut, and got a useful 1b and a prospect that they something in. Seems fine rather than cutting him for nothing. Seems way better than a 5th rounder for Kershaw.¬† Anyway, I also talked to Josh and he says he did shop Rizzo around to other teams. TBD doesn’t strike me as the team to not do their due diligence, so I believe that this was probably their best deal or close to it.

After years of driving a tank in Dynasty Grinders, Ferns has made a 2017 Baileyesque move and bought an expensive “older” player to finally compete. There’s a post somewhere where Bailey actually wrote/bragged about how he went from Tanker to Champion. Ferns certainly has the roster to compete and that’s his plan. But with only tank driving on his DG resume, is he suited for a role as a competitor in this league? Trades like this tend to say so.

These types of trades are bound to happen in a league that mimics a lot of how MLB operates. Gerrit Cole got traded for a terrible prospect haul by the Pirates, so did JD Martinez, oh wait that was another league, in MLB JD Martinez was literally traded for nothing/Dawell Lugo.¬† We play in a salary cap league, and sometimes you have a very good team like TBD does, and have to cut cap. They did that. I also don’t think Ferns paid nothing for this either, after greed he’s nearly going to pay 20% of his budget on last years 7th best 1bman. Ferns also gave away a decent 1b in Walker and an OK prospect. I guess I just don’t see this as a free acquisition.

Good trade for both teams guys!

Trade: TBD | In Line for the Win

TBD to In Line 4 the Win
Reynolds, Mark

In Line 4 the Win to TBD 

$5

 

Bailey’s Championship Take

If Mark Reynolds resigns with Colorado, this might be an okay $5 ($10 total investment including player cost) gamble. Reynolds went over 850 points last year and is a cheap enough guy to plug in and allow IL4W to slide Anthony Rizzo to 2B. I doubt he tops 850 again even at Coors, but it’s not a bad risk if you want to leverage all your many budget bucks to improve, but not gash your funds completely before auction. But if Reynolds goes almost anywhere else, I feel like he’s likely not worth much at all, definitely not $10. He scored less than 600 points in 2016 and under 500 in 2015. At 1B, that won’t come close to cutting it. In order to really capitalize on Rizzo at 2B, you need a strong guy at 1B. Being stronger at 2B but weaker at 1B isn’t helpful. So I guess it really depends where Reynolds ends up. I would’ve probably shot for a more steady, less park factor dependent 1B myself. Or just waited until Reynolds signs to revisit this. I imagine TBD sells him for $5 at any point this offseason, regardless of where he signs.

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

Seems like a big win for TBD.¬† Mark Reynolds at $5 is probably a cut for TBD, especially if he’s not in Colorado.¬† ¬†Clearly IL4W wants to acquire a 1b so he can put Rizzo at 2b, but I struggle to see the wisdom in going out of your way to acquire Mark Reynolds pre auction.¬† ¬†Personally, I don’t think he’s guaranteed to find a starting job to start the season unless he falls to a team looking for an injury replacement. Even then, I don’t see him being worth $10 unless he re-signs with the Rockies and starts. Even if those 2 magical things happen and you hit your best case scenario, Reynolds isn’t a long term piece and won’t be someone you can sell off for much come July.¬† I do think a $10 Rockies starting Reynolds is perfectly reasonable¬† and would make IL4W better if properly deployed.

On a rebuilding team like IL4W, I’m not a fan of this move. On the other hand, when you have a ton of auction cash, potentially wasting $10 on one move wouldn’t¬† be¬† a significant loss.

Trade: Team Hydra | In Line 4 the Win

Team Hydra sends: C Jonathan Lucroy ($25), SP Rich Hill ($11)
In Line 4 the Win sends: 1B Freddie Freeman ($41), C Josh Phegley (FA), 2017 3rd Round Pick

Jordan’s thoughts:¬†This deal on paper makes a lot of sense. Hydra was dying for a first baseman, the unluckiest team in the league could use an upgrade at catcher and pitchers are always useful. After sitting on the trade for a couple hours I think both teams improved themselves in this trade.

Freddie Freeman is nearing enigma status. In my head a keeper at $40 makes complete sense. FanGraphs projections has him hitting 1.41 PPPA going forward. That’s pretty legit. Based on how things have been going, IL4W has really improved the team in a lot of ways. Based on projections, it appears to be more of a lateral move. I still love it for them.

For HYDRA I love the deal as well. Lucroy was not really doing enough for them. Freeman, as I said, projects to be better. That’s a pretty significant upgrade. Selling depth for a significant upgrade with easy keep-ability makes total sense.

It’s actually kind of hard to break down a trade like this. I think both teams win. Based on projections Team Hydra significantly improved their team. Based on past results, IL4W has significantly improved their team. At the worst in either direction, they didn’t hurt their respective teams. It’s a win-win.

Andrew’s thoughts: I guess the simplest way of putting it would be this: I’d rather be the side getting Lucroy and Hill.

I’ve given Alex from Team Hydra a hard time before about Lucroy, but the truth is, he’s a really good player and $25 isn’t bad for the second best catcher behind Buster Posey. I’m just not personally into paying premiums for catchers and whenever he and I spoke about a move involving Lucroy, I felt like that’s what I’d be doing. I didn’t really believe Lucroy was keepable at $27 next year, but there’s a good chance I was wrong about that.

Of course, this deal makes fundamental sense for both sides. Team Hydra has Posey, so Lucroy is a tad redundant at catcher. They also have Prince Fielder disappointing at first, so there’s an apparent hole there. In Line 4 the Win, meanwhile, has Anthony Rizzo at 1B but had been plodding along with Jason Castro, so you see where the pieces fit.

Anyway, I’m a big proponent of playing players in the position where they are most valuable. Posey, obviously, is more valuable at catcher. But in this case, I think I’d rather just shift Posey to 1B and play Lucroy at catcher than bring in Freeman to man first until Lucroy logs two more games at first, at which point he’ll have unlocked that position.

As of today, Lucroy has a higher wOBA by .028 points and ZiPS sees Freeman playing out the year with a .023 edge there. I’m not really sure I see a huge performance gap between Lucroy and Freeman heads up. These two guys are close enough that it probably didn’t warrant dumping Hill, a 30+ point per game starter at this juncture, just because Team Hydra has an abundance of pitching. Getting Hill as essentially a throw in is just good work by IL4W. Too much pitching is a gift, not a curse.

The other pieces involved are negligible. Phegley is an okay lefty mashing catcher, but he’s hurt and because he really only hits lefties, he won’t be playable most days. And even when he’s facing a Southpaw, you won’t bench Posey for him. He’s being viewed as depth though (he’s Hydra’s only other catcher now), I’m sure, so he’s fine. And the third round pick is an alright bonus too, just not a piece that really factors in much.

Swinging a Hot Stick in April

There is nothing better than drafting a player who gets off to a hot start, like Justin Upton hitting 12 home runs in April of 2013. ¬†However, the MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint, and it’s important to remember that sometimes you need to know when sell a player at peak value. ¬†But that is different discussion for another day. ¬†Let’s focus in on the¬†players that have dominated the first month of the season over the last three years.

You Won’t Believe Who is #6 On This Cool Spring Breeze List of Hot Sizzling Pitchers

Since 2013, we have seen a decline in players scoring 150 points in April – from 53 down to just 23 last year.

quickstart

Anthony Rizzo is the only other player to score 150 points in each of the last three Aprils, but has not totaled 500 points.  Jose Altuve and Chris Davis have score more points than Rizzo, but each had a season where they failed to score 150 points.

There is one name on that list that jumps out in a group of future Hall of Famers – Jed Lowrie.

He got off to a hot start in 2013, with 14 XBH in the month of April. Lowrie had another quick start in 2014, with eight doubles and two home runs, drawing 20 walks, In 2015, Jed hit .300 with four doubles and four home runs.  His 12 walks led to a .432 OBP.  Unfortunately, his season lasted just 69 games due to injury and the Astros promoted this kid named Carlos Correa.

Over the past three seasons, Lowrie has a triple slash of .313/.425/.508 with 23 doubles and nine home runs.

Now a member of the Athletics, Lowrie is slated to bat second and play 2B according to RosterResource.com.

2014

Troy Tulowitzki had the greatest April in recent memory in 2014, totaling 262.3 fantasy points.  With seven home runs that month, Tulo hit .381 with nine doubles and a triple (.762 SLG) while drawing 21 walks, leading to a .495 OBP.

2013

In 2013, Justin Upton and Chris Davis each scored over 250 points.  Upton hit 12 home runs that month, despite striking out 30 times.  He only hit 14 more HRs that year, eight in August.  Davis totaled 17 XBH in April of 2013,  He followed up nine home runs in April with 10 in May and 12 in June en route to 37 home runs before the MLB All-Star Game.

Last season saw the fewest number of player score 150 points in April.

2015

 

2016 Auction Review – In Line 4 the Win

In Line 4 The Win

4w

And with great giant lightning bolts, the team wins their super hero, their Thor. Holy cow what a bid. I mean there’s probably cause for Thor costing $80, but holy Norse God he¬†is still young and fresh. Here¬†is the league’s token all upside team. It does¬†not¬†typically work for me, but if it works for IL4W. I am¬†not certain I actually know anything.

Hitting – Alright

Kyle Schwarber could have been the steal of the draft for 2016. Being a qualified catcher playing every day in the outfield. However, at $52 you’re looking to see him be as good as we was last year for an entire season. It¬†is clearly possible, he could be better, but IL4W¬†paid for it. Anthony Rizzo at $75 seems like a great price to me. Is Starlin Castro back to for real now? Joc Pederson is an enigma much like Colby Rasmus. Should be awesome, but um something’s not right. Dustin Pedroia and David Wright offer yesterday’s stars as older staples that in a day to day shuffling, should offer higher floors. Freddie Freeman being hurt before the draft could have dropped him into value territory. There is just enough question marks over the whole stack that I settled on alright.

Pitching – Not Quite

Something is missing here. Noah Syndergaard¬†is a tier 2 with tier 1 potential. Jose Quintana is a tier 2 that everyone wants to believe is a tier 4. Carlos Rodon getting paid $35 means he needs to be awesome soon. Matt Moore as your 4 is scary. The top half just isn’t good enough to get behind and the bottom half is even scarier. It clearly could work out, but I’m missing what that is to make this rotation great. Bullpen should be good though. Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon should be reliable stable relievers, as they come anyway.

Depth – Very Good

There is a plethora of decent talent that can be flexible and move around on this roster. The hitting depth is great, but the pitching depth drags this down quite a bit. Jose Reyes is a huge question mark, but at $8, possibly $10 next year is an exciting gamble. Guys like Matt Duffy, Brett Lawrie and Billy Burns could all finish high enough to start by the end of the year. They all are a small hot streak from being good enough to flip for something even more interesting.

Why 2016 would be bad…¬†

All of that upside could be egg on this teams face. Sure, it is exciting, the possibility of being right and awesome on young guys in a dynasty league is incredibly tempting. Just like a few other teams, this team is currently built for everything to go right, or its on to 2017.

Why 2016 would be¬†good…¬†

Well Syndergaard, Quintana and Rodon obviously blow away expectations. The hitters are good enough, as is, to carry.¬†They need these pitchers to be at their friendliest projections. Rizzo and Freeman could battle each other out for National League Silver Slugger, Joc Pederson gets his head on straight. Lots of upside here, it’s all over.