Trade: TBD | Team Hydra

TBD sends: LF,CF Kevin Pillar ($5)
Team Hydra sends: P Kyle Gibson ($7)

Jordan‚Äôs thoughts:¬†Here is finally a trade that I feel pretty strongly about the results. I think Kevin Pillar is a fine player. He’s a borderline starter in CF and in LF. He plays everyday. All of this is fine and good. But, he’s really not really a prize. He’s started this season off with a slow 3.05 points per game average. There’s not a lot to love. Granted Team Hydra has been spending the last two weeks trying to replace AJ Pollock with about anything that moves.

The reason I’m so down on Hydra for making this swap is that I believe Kyle Gibson has a lot to offer. Gibson had 16 starts last year where he pitched over 30 points. Touching 56 once. He did have two meltdown starts, but his floor is relatively high with potential to be good or even great. This is the kind of pitcher in my opinion that has a gross amount of value because he is serviceable in basically any week you need him, but he profiles as a guy that can improve slightly and be a consistently good pitcher.

This isn’t to say that Pillar can’t do the same things in center, but I just don’t like getting a borderline hitter for a pitcher who can score you points. Injuries make you do funny things, but I think this trade was desperate by the wrong team.

Andrew’s thoughts: I’m with Jordan. I don’t like it much for Hydra.

The context is really important: TBD had six starts heading into Sunday, so they needed to quickly acquire a seventh or just go without. In my experience, teams who have an extra start on Sunday think this gives them leverage to deal, when usually it just leads to a hasty move.

As Jordan mentioned, Kevin Pillar is fine. He hits atop a strong lineup and his defense will keep him in there. Sometimes, just playing every day carries weight. But he’s not particularly good hitter, posting just .310 wOBA last year. That needs to improve significantly for him to be anything other than a serviceable bench option.

Kyle Gibson, meanwhile, is as boring as they come but considerably more valuable. If a league average starter scores you between 24-25 points per start, Gibson’s been above that two years running. He averaged 25.39 in 2014 and 26.38 last year. He’s not setting the world on fire and probably doesn’t have much more development to do, but a slightly above average pitcher is significantly more useful than an average at best outfielder.

On Sunday, Hydra dropped Austin Jackson, who plays CF/RF and had a .305 wOBA last year. He’s older than Pillar, but the profile is almost identical. So in a roundabout way,¬†you could argue that Gibson was just erased from Hydra’s roster and centerfield was left exactly as is.

The Best of What’s Left

We have all agreed that Fantrax projections are not very good. ¬†That being said, it’s probably pretty important to follow along with the FanGraphs Auction Calculator considering we are basing future prices off of it. ¬†So why not compare the two sites? ¬†Let’s see just how bad Fantrax projections really are!

Both sites project undrafted starting pitchers to have the most fantasy points, but only Tom Koehler and Jered Weaver are on both top five lists.

Koehler tops the Fantrax projections while he is second on FanGraphs – a difference of 66 projected fantasy points.

Ignoring the most recent Weaver injury, he ranks fourth on both lists, with a similar split in projected fantasy points at 64.

The three free agent starters that Fantrax projects to have a good year are Colby Lewis, Danny Duffy and Matt Shoemaker.  Lewis has the largest projected point differential between the sites at 341.  Shoemaker is just under 300 points at 295 while Duffy is just over 150 at 152 points.

Joe Kelly is projected by FanGraphs to be the top undrafted starting pitcher Р356 points better than Fantrax projects.  Yovani Gallardo slides in at third and both sides are within 30 points of Gallardo projection.  That differential slides Gallardo down to 9th on Fantrax.  Matt Garza is the fifth best free agent starter projected by FanGraphs and is actually slotted two spots ahead of Gallardo on Fantrax.

James McCann tops both sites as the top free agent catcher.  Clearly he is the the top target should you not feel comfortable with your depth chart or your team suffers an injury.  Fantrax also like Angels catcher Carlos Perez while FanGraphs prefers veterans A.J. Pierzynski and Alex Avila.

The recent announcement of Adam LaRoche‘s retirement will leave a hole in the middle of the White Sox lineup. ¬†Until we find out how the Sox plan on filling that hole, teams looking for a potential future 1B can turn to Ryan Howard, as both sites agree he is the one of the top three best options. ¬†Fantrax likes¬†Justin Morneau, despite not being on a MLB roster, while FanGraphs suggests Logan Morrison. ¬†Fantrax will then point you towards James Loney while FanGraphs will say give Darin Ruf a go.

It’s going to be tough to find replacements at first base moving forward, that’s for sure. ¬†Better hope your 1B minor leaguer makes the big league roster ASAP!

David Freese is the only player at the other CI position that both sites agree on.  Fantrax likes Cody Asche and Tyler Saladino while FanGraphs prefers Aaron Hill and Derek Dietrich.

Much like 1B there is so little left at 3B and I hope you drafted some depth at the position or have a minor leaguer that is near MLB-ready.

Both Johnny Giavotella and Jace Peterson make the top three 2B on both sites.  Jace Pederson jumps in between them on Fantrax while veteran Aaron Hill is the third best remaining option according to FanGraphs.

There is a general consensus at the SS position

SS Fantrax Pts FanGraphs Pts DIFF
Jose Iglesias 504.4 490.5 -13.9
Adeiny Hechavarria 494.6 440.8 -53.8
Jimmy Rollins 456.9 433.2 -23.7

Both sites agree that Austin Jackson is the top CF available but Fantrax prefers Angel Pagan after him while FanGraphs likes Leonys Martin next.  They return in agreement on Anthony Gose being the third best CF available.

Austin Jackson is RF eligible as well and is the top target there. Fantrax likes Alex Rios while Brandon Guyer is the next best thing on FanGraphs, despite a crowded OF in Tampa Bay.

I was very excited to see Adam Duvall get traded by the Giants last year as I have been tracking him for a while in the Minors and he was stuck there unless dealt. ¬†Now with the Reds, they have no reason not to play him¬†at 3B/LF a couple times a week. ¬†Dude can mash and FanGraphs thinks he can put up nearly 500 points this year! ¬†He doesn’t currently have 3B eligibility though, so he is strictly a LF/UTIL at this point.

Fantrax believes Cody Asche is 200 points better than FanGraphs and he can play LF as well as 3B. ¬†He won’t beat out Maikel Franco to be the Phillies starting 3B, but Peter Bourjos is little competition in LF.