Trade: Who’s Your Haddy? | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Who’s Your Haddy? sends:¬†1B Carlos Santana ($29), SP Ervin Santana ($9), 2018 2nd Round Pick
Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: 1B Jose Abreu ($64), 3B Austin Riley

Andrew’s thoughts:¬†All else being equal, I’d probably take Abreu over Carlos Santana. It’s not a slam dunk though. And things aren’t equal.

Santana is $35 (!!) cheaper than Abreu, outscored him¬†by 106.9 points last year, and is projected by Steamer and ZiPS to finish with a higher wOBA in 2017. (I know it’s easy to poo-poo projections systems because “OMG they aren’t 100% right all of the time and sometimes they get a player really, really wrong,” but data is data and data is valuable, so…) Even if Abreu’s better, he has to be pretty significantly better to justify the extra $35 in cost. To date, Abreu has a career wOBA just .018 higher than Santana.

I’d much rather have Santana than Abreu straight up at their respective prices.

Plus, HLR added a cheap innings eater in Ervin Santana. He’s not awesome, but he was above average last year and definitely¬†has standalone value. And because the cap savings between Abreu and Santana is so big, he’s basically just a free player for HLR. Even with Santana, HLR’s netting $26 against the cap with this deal, which means buying himself the option of keeping a guy like Garrett Richards.

The other two pieces, the pick and Riley, are whatever. Riley’s interesting and Haddy’s a Braves fan, so I get it. The pick is forever away. They don’t matter much in the grand scheme of this trade.

Jordan’s thoughts:¬†I’m really going to disagree with Andrew on the main point. I’d rather have Jose Abreu, even with the higher price tag. While his points still ring true and make a certain amount of sense, I think Abreu’s ceiling is significantly higher still, and that’s worth paying for.

However, I do think Ervin Santana on top of the price tag difference, makes the trade a little sour to me. I really enjoy watching Jose Abreu, I like the potential, but its hard for me to part with a useful starting pitcher as well. I like the trade for Haddy, but the price was high.

I feel like Haddy bailed out Iosim here, and paid to do so. Come August though, it is not hard to imagine seeing Haddy as a clear winner here.