Trade: Team Hydra | Capital City Income

 

Team Hydra trades away
Vargas, Jason ($3)
Happ, J.A. ($5)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Ray, Corey
Travis, Devon ($11)

Hustle’s .02

When I went to take a piss at 5 in the morning I checked my phone and saw the email notification of this trade. With my senses barely there, I though this was a steal for Bailey.  Having had my breakfast, coffee, and shower…I pondered the trade some more.  I still think this is a good trade for Bailey, but more justified from Hydra’s stand point.

Firstly, I’m not a big Corey Ray fan. Moderate power and some above average speed which isn’t worth a lot in this format. In 2017 he’s striking out a ton with a .148 ISO in High A. If it wasn’t for him being the 5th pick last year (and a top 3 pick in our draft) he’d be completely off my radar.  He’s still a bit away, isn’t that exciting (to me), and plays a deep position where you’ll really need to produce to be a contributor. On the other side, he’s young and has the pedigree to improve and be an impact player.

Devon Travis at $13 next year?  This was famously a Dusty trade and  drop and I believe the biggest FAAB acquisition in league history (Otani aside). I think a healthy Devon Travis is worth 13 bucks, maybe a few more. So there’s value here if he manages to stay healthy which he never has. Hydra doesn’t have a 2b to build around and maybe Travis is it. Travis is out for a significant amount of time, but Hydra has thrown their hat out of race for 2017.

The haul for Bailey is 2 veteran pitchers in Happ and Vargas. Vargas is obviously playing out of his mind now.  I assume nobody was giving a big haul for a 34 year old having a career season averaging 30 points per game.  JA Happ on the other hand was great last year and only recently picked things up with back to back 40+ point games. I think both are probably around top 75 pitchers (maybe better), which in this league is very relevant.  Bailey’s pitching core is greatly improved from 2 players who won’t effect his bottom line this year.

I get that Hydra wanted to trade two 34 year olds because they could possibly be exposed and have very little value by season’s end. I think chances are one of them will be a very good value to keep next year, but it is unclear which. Even if we can predict Jason Vargas for having a good 2018 season, he’s still in the twilight of his career and getting 2 young assets is perhaps more intriguing. If this was the best they could get in their eyes, then that’s the market.. it feels a tad light.

Ultimately the trade is fine for both teams. If I’m Hydra, I would have liked someone better than Corey Ray, but this is a totally a prospect personal preference criticism.

 

 

Trade: Who’s Your Haddy? | Capital City Ironmen

Who’s Your Haddy? sends: 2017 2nd Round Pick
Capital City Ironmen sends: $6 2017 Auction Budget, 2017 4th Round Pick

Andrew’s thoughts: So for six bucks, I moved up from the 51st to the 24th pick and took Lourdes Gurriel. Yay.

I felt like this was a fair risk/reward scenario. I pay six bucks and if Gurriel sucks, oh well, I’m out six bucks in a year where I’ve got a bunch of budget space and the pool may be weak. If he’s good, then he’s $1 next year and cost controlled for six seasons total. Even if he just ends up being a bench piece, it’ll be worth it I think.

I have no idea what Gurriel will be, but the good news is I’m not buying a teenage prospect here. He should see the bigs sooner rather than later, maybe even this year, so it’s not even like it’s going to take years to know whether or not the $6 investment will pay off.

Jordan’s thoughts: Again, who they actually pick I don’t think really matters here. We’re at the point of the draft that the picks are as long as a long shot can get. If you like it, its worth pulling the trigger. Again, the price and market seems to have corrected here, and I like it.

Trade: The Foundation | Hustle Loyalty Respect | Capital City Ironmen

The Foundation sends: 2B Neil Walker ($18) [to CAP]
Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: SP Adam Wainwright ($49) [to CAP], C Yadier Molina ($6) [to FND], 2017 1st Round Pick [to CAP]
Capital City Ironmen sends: 2017 1st Round Pick [to HLR]

Andrew’s thoughts: So in summation: HLR gets the 4th overall pick, I slide back to the 16th overall pick, get Neil Walker and his back problems, plus Adam Wainwright, and The Foundation gets Yadier Molina. This was a fun trade.

I really needed a 2B and didn’t like any of the options already sitting in free agency or on the trade market. I also felt really torn with the fourth overall pick. My list is pretty clear for the first two or three guys, but after that, it’s just a random dart throw for me between players with low ceilings versus players that are three years away from debuting, much less being fantasy relevant. So I hedged a bit on the pick front, moving back to 16th where there are some names I like and going ahead and adding my 2B.

Walker ranks 11th in wOBA at 2B from 2015-16 and 6th if you go back to 2014-16. I have no doubts about his skills. He walks a good bit, doesn’t strike out much, and has some pop. He had the back surgery last year, which is where my doubts lie, but $18 is really not that much. I don’t see how, at that price, he’s any more risky than some 19- or 20-year-old that’s just getting their feet wet in the minors.

Oh, and Adam Wainwright! I like him. Whether or not I keep him at $49 remains to be seen, but I like having the option. He’s a little over-priced, but last year was basically the only sub-par year he ever had and pitching at auction isn’t likely to be deep, so I’ll take the wildcard. Inquire if you’re interested in him! Absolute worst case, I kept HLR from trading him to someone else for $1 and ensured that if he makes it to auction, it’s because I made the call.

Jordan’s defense: I have been after a catcher since the off season started. Yadi was on the trade block, but Jonny and I had issues making a deal that fit well. Yadi’s Steamer projections have him as the 8th best catcher next year while taking a significant step back from last year’s production.

I enjoy not having to deal with Derek Norris or catcher streaming going forward. It cost me Neil Walker who was a borderline keeper for my team anyway. I would rather have Neil Walker than not, but since I picked him up off the waiver wire (shouldn’t have been there), I felt little connection to him. I will take a starting catcher for the sacrifice of not having a good back up at 2B and UT.

For HLR the motivation for the deal is clear. Moving to the fourth pick of the draft is both exciting and potentially profitable for a catcher slated to be a back up on his team and starting pitcher headed to the auction pool.

For Andrew, well I actually think he could have sold the pick for more. But, when you have three of the top four picks, securing a starting 2B and an option on a former ace with potential to return to glory, there are worse deals.

Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | Capital City Ironmen

We Talk Fantasy Sports send: 3B Adrian Beltre ($32)
Capital City Ironmen send: SS Amed Rosario (minors), 3B Jhonny Peralta ($10), SP Martin Perez ($3), SP Charlie Morton ($5)

Jordan’s thoughts: I really love Adrian Beltre. I do not know who Amed Rosario is. I could look up these players. But what I see is three fringe keeper players for a lock at 3B at a reasonable price. The prospect could be whatever.

There’s no doubt that if I’m Bailey I’m pulling the trigger on this trade. Beltre’s production in my opinion is harder to acquire then the glimmer of hope the players returned offer in value. There’s plenty of waiver wire fodder for cheap available that could be good.

I get what WTFS is doing it, I just don’t love it. I feel like another month or two would have presented a better option.

Andrew’s defense: The grandpa overhaul continues!

Amed Rosario is one of my favorite prospects and, as Mets fans, I assume WTFS feel the same. FanGraphs recently listed him as the 15th best prospect for fantasy heading into 2017. I would have liked to keep him and see what happens, but with Trevor Story and JP Crawford sitting on my roster, shortstop seemed like a depth spot to deal from.

I felt a big need for a third baseman. It’s one of the deepest positions in fantasy right now and I learned last year that if you don’t have someone good there, you’re really at a disadvantage. I don’t think there will be a lot of options to fill that spot at auction. I don’t envision Bryant or Arenado or Donaldson or Machado or Seager becoming available via trade, and if they did, the acquisition cost would be a lot higher I suspect.

At $32, Adrian Beltre seems like a good value to me, even if he’s about to turn 38. He went back over 30 homers last year after not eclipsing 20 in the previous two seasons, but even in a supposed “down” 2015 campaign he finished as a top-10 3B with a .337 wOBA. With or without high home run totals, he has as high a floor as anyone at the position and arguably of any hitter, period.

For WTFS, this move converts a player facing off with Father Time into useful budget space, one of the better prospects in baseball, and some low cost depth pieces.

Trade: Beach Bum | Capital City Ironmen

Beach Bum sends: 1B/LF Matt Holliday ($10)
Capital City Ironmen send: RF Aaron Judge ($1; cost controlled), SP Grant Holmes (minors)

Jordan’s thoughts: Aaron Judge got his chance last year and was short of inspiring. He’s still a prospect and he does carry some level of potential that is very enticing. Grant Holmes is in the same category of prospects. That category being the catch-all level 40-45 future value grade group.

These guys exist. They have good qualities. They have one or two talents that could truly make them stars. Unfortunately, they have other levels of talents that are more likely to hold them back, causing them to potentially be less than valuable.

These kinds of trades are weird. Matt Holliday is a great hitter, aging, and just signed a fantasy hitter’s favorable deal. There’s a lot to like. His floor is generally high as long as he actually sees the field. His ceiling is high-ish, but that is also held back by how many games he plays.

The keeper price for Holliday is a good buy. I think he’s 100% kept at that price for the next two to three years, short of some dramatic fall off. Cutting him in the end or keeping him for a year too long is hardly a penalty here. That makes him quite valuable to me.

Sure, could either of these prospects that Bailey sent turn Bailey’s decision into regret? Absolutely. The fact that Dan got two of these kinds of guys who are close/in the majors, is a bit surprising.

In a vacuum I’d rather have Holliday, but given the situation for both teams, it is hard to come away with an opinion other than liking the deal for both teams. Losing Holliday doesn’t hurt Beach Bum all that much and the prospects could be useful. Adding Holliday helps Capital City a lot, and losing the prospects that are (at this point in our dynasty) easily replaceable, isn’t much pain to suffer.

Andrew’s defense: I like Matt Holliday a lot. The biggest question mark with him, really, is health. He’s old too, but he should mostly just DH now in a hitter friendly park. He had a solid .335 wOBA in his 426 plate appearances last year. If he can simply duplicate that, he’ll be good for me in LF, as it’s a fairly shallow position. And keep in mind, he did that despite a .253 BABIP and a really good looking batted ball profile (38.5% hard hit rate). If he just has neutral luck, he should hit that .355 wOBA Steamer has him pegged for.

For Dan, he sheds one of his many LFs and adds a couple promising young guys, one of which (Judge) plays RF, so that fills a need. Judge’s power is prodigious and should play up at new Yankee Stadium, but he also struck out 44.2% of the time last year. Small sample, sure, but the K’s have always been a concern. I wasn’t overly concerned about them personally (for fantasy, a strikeout and a ground out are the same, so whatever), but it just means his floor is a little lower than I like and it could jeopardize his playing time. Not a bad bet for Dan.

And Grant Holmes is just sort of an interesting grab. He’s an Oakland A (for now), so maybe Beach Bum was being a bit of a homer. Either way, Holmes is a top-100 prospect on most lists and profiles as a middle of the rotation guy. In our format, that’s alluring.

Trade: The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses | Capital City Ironmen

The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses sends: SP Edinson Volquez ($9)
Capital City Ironmen send: LF Corey Dickerson ($12)

Andrew’s defense: Meh.

Neither of these players are exciting, but Dickerson fills a LF need for WBFD and my pitching staff has a low floor for innings pitched, so Volquez seemed like a cheap way of helping out there.

Dating back five years, Volquez has averaged more than 187 innings per season. Here are his fantasy points per start each of those years: 18.13, 26.4, 26.33, 18.23, 25.03. Pretty boring stuff. If I can get the guy who was a league average starter three of five years for $9, I’ll be content. I think there’s plenty of surplus value in an average pitcher for $9. I also think moving to the National League and pitching in Marlins Park help him get to that average level. Plus, he’s really the only proven durable guy on the Marlins’ staff, so he’s likely to be the default “number one starter” type guy who gets asked to soak up extra innings.

Steamer projects Volquez at 25.36 points per start this year and Fantrax, whose projections you shouldn’t buy into, peg him at 24.28. For his purposes, acceptable all around. FYI, Steamer has Dickerson at 4.84 points per game and 672.7 points total, which is respectable. Fantrax has him at 4.73/695.5. I grew tired of his $12 salary and inability to hit lefties (.259 wOBA) or on the road (.271 wOBA), but if he actually hits those totals, $12 is perfectly fine.

I think both of these players were probably facing good odds of being cut. Given their cost and volatility, there’s still probably a chance WBFD and I end up changing our minds two months from now and dumping them. But by swapping teams, their odds of getting cut probably went down a bit.

Jordan’s thoughts: I’d rather have any SP who might be useful for under $10, than lots of things. I don’t think Corey Dickerson is a bad pickup, he might be better next year, might not.

I think this trade is fine for both sides honestly. As Andrew said above, both players were not far from the chopping block, but they’re more useful to the other team. It’s a valuable swap in that way.

Trade: Team Hydra | Capital City Ironmen

Team Hydra sends: RF Nelson Cruz ($34), 4th round 2017 Draft Pick
Capital City Ironmen send: 1B Dan Vogelbach ($1 ML), 1st round 2017 Draft Pick (#11), $2 in 2017 Team Budget

Jordan’s thoughts: Hey look, back-to-back trades for my co-commish for older outfielder stars. One thing that I didn’t consider in my opinions of the previous trade, was the potential that WTFS would need to cut McCutchen due to budget reasons. As for that deal and this deal. I don’t think it changes my opinion a whole lot.

I hope beyond hope as a Mariners fan that Vogelbach is an interesting piece to own in fantasy soon. I don’t really believe it as I see his fantasy upside something as your swing UT #2 guy. Useful, but not great.

The 11th overall pick could be interesting in the long term and has some value. But, its really only worth its weight in hype. The budget money moving one way or another I’m sure helps Hydra make one decision easier and that has value.

But, I think punting the #3 overall RF last year is a bit of mistake. At least this is a sell low. It is early in the off-season to be in this position for my liking. I know they were shopping him, but this is the best?

As for Andrew, consider his position. He sold his team, upgraded young assets, and then bought two win now assets on the market for dimes on the dollar. Is Cruz as good as he was last year next year? STEAMER projects say no, not close. But, they still have him as a serviceable starter. Again, I believe this is a high floor buy, with proven talent to reach 1,000 points.

If you believe the draft will be full of these kinds of guys, I think you’re wrong. If I am wrong, then Andrew probably would rather have kept his money and bid on things. But, he literally sent a few tiny assets and upgraded his active roster.

I hate it for Hydra, love it for Capital City. But, Hydra is the champs, and Capital City settled for #1 overall. So maybe they know more than this trade leads on.

Andrew’s defense: Hydra won the championship, so I’m sure they’re not too bummed about being way above our $500 cap. But the fact remains, they’re way above the cap.

In that sense, you could assume they might cut a player like Nelson Cruz who, at $34, strikes me as a bargain. Maybe it isn’t Cruz that goes, but someone similar. They do have some easy big dollar cuts ($41 Prince Fielder, $49 Sonny Gray). Still, someone has to go. But “having to go” also could mean they trade him to someone else. Right? It doesn’t mean that player will just be there come auction time, guaranteed, when I’ve got cash to spend. I also have some doubts about what’ll be available in the auction anyway. If a guy like Cruz gets there, I think there’s a good shot he’s one of the few impact players available and as a result, goes for well more than $34. He was easily worth more than $34 last year.

As for projections and such, here’s Cruz’s wOBA over the past four years: .383, .396, .370, .359. That’s consistency. There’s some risk because he’s old and sometimes old guys see their skills erode or get hurt. But Cruz seems safe to me. That is to say, if he does suddenly fall off, it’s not like I would pull up his FanGraphs page and go “oh yeah, should’ve seen this coming.” And if he gets hurt, well… it happens.

As for what I gave up, I like Vogelbach a lot. He’s fun. He’s a big old round guy that hits a ton. He’s like Ferns, but you know, hits a ton. I don’t doubt his ability to hit, but I worry for his opportunity and think the lack of defense could be a detriment to his playing time. Plus, if he’s only a 1B or UT, the bar is higher. And his cost control clock has started, so if he’s only going to get 250-300 PAs next year, that’s another year of control gone for the sake of a bench hitter.

The pick is neat. Based on my early draft rankings, the 11th overall pick translates to something around the 65th or 70th prospect on a list (an overall list, not a fantasy list). Those players are risky. Also, there are a lot of pitching prospects in the 11th overall range, and pitchers are risky too. I would have loved to use that pick, but I also spent all of last year acquiring prospects and have picks two, three, and four. I think I can spare one lottery ticket for a really good player at a good salary.

Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | Capital City Ironmen

We Talk Fantasy Sports sends: CF Andrew McCutchen ($71), 5th round 2018 Draft Pick
Capital City Ironmen send: C Travis d’Arnaud ($22), LF Jorge Soler ($18), CF Billy Hamilton ($10), 2nd round 2018 Draft Pick

Jordan’s thoughts: Andrew McCutchen just had the worst season since becoming a super star of Major League Baseball. It was so awful that he finished as the 11th best center fielder. Let that sink in for a second. A super star, gets paid a lot, under performs and his apparent floor is 11th best in the league at his position.

Granted I would rather not be paying super star keeper money for a guy finishing as the 11th best at his position, but that has to be his floor right? I think so. I think McCutchen gets back into the top 5, possibly even the top 3 of center fielders next season. I absolutely love this trade for CCI as they gave up almost nothing, and got back a potential superstar. If he has back to back mediocre seasons, then you cut him or trade him for some poo poo package next year and you’re out nothing. The odds that CCI would spend the $71 on a better gamble in the draft are really low in my opinion.

For WTFS, I don’t understand this trade at all. I would almost certainly rather risk McCutchen to the draft with intentions of drafting him for less cash at auction. I don’t see how you keep d’Arnaud at that price. Soler is easier to keep since he got traded to Kansas City, but that’s not a prize piece. Billy Hamilton doesn’t get points for defense, and doesn’t really get enough points for steals. I just don’t see the upside of forcing this deal.

Andrew’s defense: Projection systems are far from infallible, but Steamer has Andrew McCutchen pegged for a .363 wOBA, the 15th highest mark among hitters. As Jordan mentioned, last year was a down year. But Cutch’s floor remained pretty high — he still grossed 829.9 points — and his second half numbers look on par with his career norms. He posted a .355 wOBA in August and a .374 across September and October. He actually had a .333 in March/April and a .343 in May (not $71 good, but pretty good still), so really the .250 in June and .300 in July are what dragged his season totals down. I think seven-plus seasons of production are more telling than two crappy months, particularly because of that strong finish.

Would I rather take the Cutch leap at, like, $50? Sure. But I’m really not confident he would’ve made it back to auction for that opportunity to present itself. And I think the main utility of $1 prospects like Trevor Story and Sean Manaea is to create so much surplus that it enables you to spend elsewhere, be it on risks or safe bets.

 

Trade: TBD | Capital City Ironmen

TBD sends: 1B Chris Carter ($5), 3B Ryan McMahon (minors)
Capital City Ironmen send: 1B Mike Napoli ($10), SP Franklyn Kilome (minors)

Jordan’s thoughts: Mike Napoli received the most greed votes for Capital City. This obviously identified, for Bailey, that he had something worthwhile on his roster left. So he promptly jettisoned this undervalued good player for a player who was recently designated for assignment because his major league team decided they wouldd rather not have a first baseman over paying Chris Carter a small sum of seven million dollars. Classic Bailey move.

In all honesty, they swapped mediocre players and mediocre prospects probably due to boredom.

Andrew’s thoughts: The Brewers dumped Chris Carter this morning, so he’s in as much free agent limbo as Mike Napoli now. I think Napoli’s perceived as the safer free agent gamble, but they’re very similar players — especially for fantasy purposes. They both walk a good bit, strike out a ton, and hit for power. Last year, Carter had a 0.3% better walk rate, Napoli had a 1.9% better strikeout rate, and Carter had the superior wOBA by .03 and the better wRC+ by 1. So… same guy. In fact, here’s a chart:

Same guy!

So I felt like, what the hell, going from Napoli to Carter saves me $5 and gets my roster five years younger.

Between Ryan McMahon and Franklyn Kilome, meh, I’m just hedging on a prospect that might get to play his home games at Coors Field one day. He’s blocked at third by Nolan Arenado though, so who knows. Kilome has the greater upside, but he’s also further away and comes with significant risks. Swapping two prospects like this is essentially flipping a coin.

As a funny side note, go look at who TBD put their greed dollar on for my team.