Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | We Talk Fantasy Sports

HLR sends: 1B/RF Carlos Santana ($29), 2018 3rd Round Pick
WTFS sends: C Zack Collins (minors), 2018 1st Round Pick

Andrew’s Thoughts: I like this deal a good bit for WTFS, who are 14th in hitting points and need fire power as they fight toward a playoff spot. The CJ Cron experiment has been a disaster. It has left them a big void at both 1B and their UT spaces. Santana is affordable and offers a nice, safe floor. Consider Santana the anti-Byron Buxton, if you will. The Twins’ former #3 prospect behind Jose Berrios and Max Kepler is, by contrast to Santana, expensive and offers a safe floor only in the sense that the word “floor” could function as a synonym of the term “rock bottom.” It is safe in that it can’t possibly get any worse. But I digress…

I almost took Zack Collins third overall in our draft on the chance he retains that catcher eligibility, but meh, I didn’t. Point is, I find him interesting. I think he’s a better fantasy prospect than real life prospect. And the first round pick is a nice bonus. In this case, Hustle just didn’t really need Santana, I guess, so opted instead to take on some prospect value. That’s fine. He can flip these pieces in two or three weeks if necessary, perhaps at a greater premium as more teams drop in the standings. But in a vacuum, I just don’t really find the two pieces compelling enough to fork over a sub-$30 Santana who is very keepable starting at $31 next season. He’s got a lot of 1B’s, yeah, but Santana can plug in at RF too and fill either UT spot. I’m usually a sucker for depth (and fearful of injuries); I’d rather have too many good players and occasionally leave the better guy on the bench than to have too thin a roster. And by adding prospects, it’s not like dealing from depth to improve a weakness elsewhere.

Of course, if you look at this trade in conjunction with Hustle’s other trade, from his perspective, he swapped out Santana for a younger, cheaper Myers, and swapped out Ross and De Leon (essentially prospects) for two more prospects in the form of a first round pick and Collins. You could easily build your case that, as prospects go, Collins is more valuable than De Leon heads up. So while I think HLR “lost” (for lack of a better term) this trade, I think this one paired with the other one are a net gain for his situation.

Trade: Who’s Your Haddy? | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Who’s Your Haddy? sends: 1B Carlos Santana ($29), SP Ervin Santana ($9), 2018 2nd Round Pick
Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: 1B Jose Abreu ($64), 3B Austin Riley

Andrew’s thoughts: All else being equal, I’d probably take Abreu over Carlos Santana. It’s not a slam dunk though. And things aren’t equal.

Santana is $35 (!!) cheaper than Abreu, outscored him by 106.9 points last year, and is projected by Steamer and ZiPS to finish with a higher wOBA in 2017. (I know it’s easy to poo-poo projections systems because “OMG they aren’t 100% right all of the time and sometimes they get a player really, really wrong,” but data is data and data is valuable, so…) Even if Abreu’s better, he has to be pretty significantly better to justify the extra $35 in cost. To date, Abreu has a career wOBA just .018 higher than Santana.

I’d much rather have Santana than Abreu straight up at their respective prices.

Plus, HLR added a cheap innings eater in Ervin Santana. He’s not awesome, but he was above average last year and definitely has standalone value. And because the cap savings between Abreu and Santana is so big, he’s basically just a free player for HLR. Even with Santana, HLR’s netting $26 against the cap with this deal, which means buying himself the option of keeping a guy like Garrett Richards.

The other two pieces, the pick and Riley, are whatever. Riley’s interesting and Haddy’s a Braves fan, so I get it. The pick is forever away. They don’t matter much in the grand scheme of this trade.

Jordan’s thoughts: I’m really going to disagree with Andrew on the main point. I’d rather have Jose Abreu, even with the higher price tag. While his points still ring true and make a certain amount of sense, I think Abreu’s ceiling is significantly higher still, and that’s worth paying for.

However, I do think Ervin Santana on top of the price tag difference, makes the trade a little sour to me. I really enjoy watching Jose Abreu, I like the potential, but its hard for me to part with a useful starting pitcher as well. I like the trade for Haddy, but the price was high.

I feel like Haddy bailed out Iosim here, and paid to do so. Come August though, it is not hard to imagine seeing Haddy as a clear winner here.

2016 Auction Review – Who’s your Haddy?

Who’s your Haddy?

wyh

Looking up and down, yep! Yet another stars and scrubs strategy with some interesting middle men tossed in. I love Mike Trout‘s value, the best player in baseball got paid the 3rd most auction budget by some margin. A few things went really right here, and a few look really concerning. Let’s dive in!

Hitters – Great

The starting line up is really fricking good. I don’t know that there is truly a hole in the 1-10 spots. Salvador Perez plays everyday and scores points, Carlos Santana and Adrian Gonzalez for under $60 combined is a steal. Jason Kipnis and Todd Frazier are guys who can finish top 5 at their positions and Haddy didn’t pay to see it. Ben Zobrist was a steal at $14. Trout is Trout. There’s no clear number two utility hitter here, which hurts the overall rating a smidgen. Also I do not love the dollar value that Mookie Betts sold for. Jung-ho Kang is curious. Run 1000 simulations and how many times does Kang for $33 outscore Asdrubal Cabrera for $3? Yikes.

Pitchers – Alright

Jacob deGrom seems poised to have a stellar season. There’s no question about his star value. Michael Wacha is good, but there seems to be looming questions about his pitch arsenal. Is Justin Verlander a legit 3? The back end of this rotation has potential, but they’ll be asked to perform probably before Haddy would like to rely on them. The relievers are nothing to sniff at, maybe they’re okay, maybe they’re not. They will get holds you can assume. The back end of starters is iffy. I’m not high on Trevor Bauer or Ervin Santana, is there a fifth starter in the Matt Wisler, Drew Hutchinson, Jeff Locke, Robert Erlin, Shane Greene group? Eeeshh

Depth – Not quite

Now, Haddy’s starters have positional flexibility which saves this team from being in the uh-oh category. The pitchers are not likely holding anything together here. Haddy should be able to swing some positions here and there to keep a good line up going daily, but there is a player or two missing here.

Why 2016 would be bad… 

Mike Trout and/or Jacob deGrom gets hurt. The hill just gets so much higher after that. Kang being bad isn’t enough to sink it, but his weight will be pulling on the team down on the daily. Maybe Mookie Betts ends up just being good instead of great, Todd Frazier doesn’t adjust to the American League, Kipnis, Santana, and A-Gone begin their decline. Maybe the season goes south if Jacob deGrom buzzes his hair. Who knows.

Why 2016 would be good… 

This team starts shining bright when one of those starting pitchers that Haddy bought for under ten dollars turns into a star. Or just if Jung-Ho Kang is a earning his salary. Honestly Haddy’s hitters plus deGrom will carry him to victories this year. It is not hard to see how this roster goes from pretty close to good to great. Perhaps Pedro Alvarez ends up being a legit DH in the American League? Hell Mike Trout‘s probably good enough to carry.