Trade: Senior Squids | The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses

Senior Squids trades away:

The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses trades away:

Jordan’s thoughts: Squids punches the ticket on three prospects who are or were recently on top 100 lists. The shine on Alcantara, Lewis and Jones is not as bright as it once was, but likely it is not all gone either.

In return, he gets two fairly priced starters. Both players are currently MLB free agents so there is definitely more than a healthy dose of uncertainty. In a vacuum I really enjoy this trade for Squids. You trade three prospects who might be useful, might not be, and turn them into players you should be able to bank on holding down 3B and C for you.

If you’re punting your season before Christmas like WBFD here, I guess tossing away two guys for three prospects is fine. I don’t love it, but its fine.

Andrew’s thoughts: I like this one for the Squids.

Neither Mike Moustakas or Wilson Ramos are super exciting players but they’re the kind of players contending teams need and frankly, as cheap as they are, I’m not sure why WBFD didn’t just hang onto them. I can’t imagine buying better players for better salary at auction, and this trifecta of prospects strike me as guys that you hope develop into depth pieces rather than building blocks.

I mean, I get that WBFD is rebuilding. But this isn’t a move that slashes a ton of salary. Neither Moustakas or Ramos were in position to be cuts. They weren’t “take whatever I can get” salary dumps. Like, if you re-invest the $29 into a single player at auction, what is that likely to buy you? Adam Jones? Curtis Granderson went for $27 last year. Is a $29 Steven Matz plus these three prospects better than Moustakas and Ramos? Maybe! I don’t really know. These prospects just don’t excite me enough to want to dump proven major league talent for them and then have to gamble on getting decent replacement talent at auction.

Three Up Three Down – Carlos Santana

Carlos Santana signed a 3 year $60 mil deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, after 8 MLB seasons with the Cleveland Indians.  It was the Los Angeles Dodgers that signed him as an amateur free agent back in 2004, before trading him to Cleveland for Casey Blake, near the 2008 trade deadline.  He started out as a catcher, but by 2014 he would no longer play the position, moving to 1B/DH.

With the addition on Edwin Encarnacion last offseason, the Indians felt comfortable letting Santana walk in free agency.  They also just signed Yonder Alonso for 2 years and $19 mil, a bargain compared to Santana’s price tag. Cleveland also has two 1B prospects in Bobby Bradley and Nellie Rodriguez.  Both are big HR and SO guys.

Philly and Santana were not exactly a perfect match, but they worked things out.  The Phillies already have a future 1B in Rhys Hoskins, who took the MLB by storm this past summer, hitting 18 HRs in 212 PA.  That was a 58 HR pace!  Hoskins will turn 25 before the 2018 MLB seasons throws its first pitch and now has to share an OF with Nick Williams (24), Odubel Herrera (26) and Aaron Altherr (27).  There is also Tommy Joseph (26), who is likely to get his ABs at 1B.  The Phillies either have a trade in mind, or they just stunted the growth of some of their top prospects who might never reach their full potential.  Only time will tell.

Overall, the switch-hitting Santana has turned in a .363 OBP in nearly 4600 plate appearances since establishing himself as a Major League regular back in 2011, averaging 153 games played and 24 homers per season along the way. One would think that a move to a much more hitter-friendly environment, Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, should help to improve his power output as well (though his .196 ISO in that time is already plenty strong). – MLB Trade Rumors

Let’s take a look at how Carlos Santana compares to other 1B and the rest of the league over the past two seasons. We will look at HRs, ISO, wOBA, OBP & BB%. When sorted by each category, we will find Santana and then list the players ranked 3 spots above and below him.

Home Runs

Of the 22 qualified 1B, according to FanGraphs, Santana ranks 10th over the last two seasons in total home runs with 57.  The average total is 51.2 with a high of 80 (Edwin Encarnacion) and a low of 18 (Joe Mauer).

$92 Paul Goldschmidt 60
$66 Jose Abreu 58
$19 Wil Myers 58
$31 Carlos Santana 57
$75 Miguel Cabrera 54
$19 Hanley Ramirez 53
$3 Ryan Zimmerman 51

*2018 Salary

Zimmerman’s 51 HRs for $3 is the highest $/HR at 1B – 17.  Goldschmidt ranks last at .65.  Santana ranks 10th at 1.84.

16 of the 48 qualified hitters with 50 home runs over the last two years are 1B eligible.

There are 131 qualified bats according to FanGraphs.  Santana ranks 32nd in HRs since 2016.

ISO

Santana ranks 9th of 22 at 1B.

Only 7 1B eligible players have more XBH than Santana over the last two years.

Santana ranks 30/131 eligible bats in the MLB since 2016.

The Phillies new 1B ranks 25th overall in XBH during his final two years with the Indians.

wOBA

Carlos Santana ranks 10th in wOBA at 1B.

He ranks 31st out of 131 eligible bats at all positions.

OBP

Santana ranks 9th in OBP at 1B.

He ranks 31st out of 131 eligible bats across all positions.

BB%

Carlos Santana ranks 7th in BB% since 2016.

He ranks 10th in the MLB with Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista being the only non 1B eligible.

When looking at these five categories and focusing on just 1B, Santana ranks very similarly to Goldschmidt, Abreu, Cabrera & Belt.  When you take it into the league, of 1B that cost at least $20 and have scored a total of 1,000+ fantasy points over the past two seasons, Santana has the 2nd highest fantasy points per dollar, behind Belt, while Goldschmidt & Cabrera sit at the bottom.

 

2016 Auction Review – Betternamelater

Betternamelater

bnl

The winner for Clayton Kershaw was always going to be a contender. As I’ve stated before and again. He’s almost guaranteed to be a value. I had him realistically rated as high as $150. Getting him for $117 hurts in some ways, but the team with a better name in the works, made out like bandits on a few auctions.

Hitting – Good

Manny Machado is a star in this league. Edwin Encarnacion is a fantasy star, his defense doesn’t play here. Carlos Gonzalez is still in Colorado, and even if he was not, he’s still a near lock for top five in left field. I’m higher on Adam Eaton and Curtis Granderson, lower on Ketel Marte and Dee Gordon. It will probably even out. Are we relying on Billy Butler to be a staple at the second utility spot here? Hmm. There is a lotto like about this line up, stealing Brandon Belt for $14 seems like a great buy, Keith Law probably still agrees.

Pitching – Great

Kershaw is the best player in the league. Danny Salazar, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz are all really good and interesting. I consider them all tier 2 pitchers, but if they all ended up in tier one at the end of the season I will not be surprised. I do not love Alex Wood, but between him and Nathan Eovaldi you have a solid number five and I’d be okay with Jorge De La Rosa as my sixth when he’s out of Colorado. Weeks when Kershaw pitches twice, there’s not many pitching staffs that will out-duel. He’s just so damn good. The bullpen may or may not hold this staff back. Hector Rondon has a lot of good outings, and some seriously bad ones. Joaquin Benoit is pitching in Seattle, but currently does not have a secured role.

Depth – Alright

The depth here is set to be alright. The positional flexibility plays well here. There’s no backup 2b or SS here. How many plate appearances will be left on the cutting room floor, or only slightly better, left at replacement level. Probably too many. But that could be easily patched. There is a good chance a few of these guys become legit starters as well.

Why 2016 would be bad… 

May the good lord forbid, but if Kershaw gets hurt. I mean I don’t even know what else to write. For any team if 22% of their budget was hurt early in the season for the whole season they would be easy choice as sunk. Same problem lies here. For the sake of the argument say the young three guys behind him hold up the pitching staff. Well it gets bad if Gonzalez and Granderson under perform. If Edwin Encarnacion goes missing, or worse, Machado has knee issues.

Why 2016 would be good… 

Kershaw doesn’t even have to repeat 2015, just has to be close. Salazar, Stroman and Matz all get to 25+ starts as at least tier 2 guys. Machado remains awesome, the hitters all hit above their floors and this team should be pretty solid. The question marks are probably personal preference, but it is hard to argue against he value on almost all the buys. But it hinges on, well…