Trade: Capital City Income | Trumpa Loompas

 

Capital City Income trades away
2018 Draft Pick, Round 2 (rocky mtn oysters)
Abreu, Albert

Trumpa Loompas trades away
Salazar, Danny ($39 2017)  (LOOKED IT UP MYSELF!)

Hustle’s .02

This trade screams one thing to me.  Bailey: “Why did I trade away Rich Hill?”

I was teasing a little when I thought this trade may be looked at through the lenses of proposed new scoring rules making relievers more valuable and home runs against less devastating.  Danny Salazar might start some games this year, but right now it doesn’t look like that happens.  If he does, we’re looking at a handful of starts and who knows how good he will be. It would be tough to predict multiple successful starts. At a $41 next year, he seems like a surefire cut regardless of rule changes.

I know Bailey’s thinking here “He was good, he could be good, he might be good… and I’m giving up crap”  All true.

Albert Abreu was a fringe T100 prospect on very few rankings in the offseason and based of 2017 performance he won’t be on any updated ones.  I usually shy away from Colorado and NYY pitchers because of the home run issue. That being said, with potential rule changes, if Abreu makes it as a starter in 3 years or so, the rule change would probably benefit him a decent amount if he stays a Yankee. If he becomes a dominant reliever, the rule change might make him a decent reliever to have.  I don’t know much about him other than he throws hard.

This trade is slightly better for TL because Salazar is untradeable after the deadline and we won’t know if he’s going to start games until then. So there’s a good chance he gets nothing for Salazar if he doesn’t move him soon. Dusty having a lot of wins this season makes the pick less appealing, however Dusty is 12th in points so maybe that pick gets better.

I do like this for both teams.

Andrew’s thoughts: 

Of players with a minimum of 50 innings pitched, Danny Salazar is tied for the 19th best xFIP (3.57). His FIP is 4.59, a whopping 1.02 difference between FIP/xFIP. Of that same group, he’s tied with Tyler Glasnow with the worst BABIP (.366). His HR/FB rate (22.4%) is the fifth worst of that group.

Basically, I see a lot of poor luck in Salazar’s numbers. He’s walking more guys which is his own damn fault, but the K’s are still there. He averaged over 26 points a start last year. So whatever, he’ll probably pitch out of the bullpen the rest of the year and offer me nothing, but I think a top-200 type prospect and a second rounder is worth the gamble that he gets another shot in the rotation this year and produces. That might only buy me two or three actual starts come August, who knows. I don’t follow the Indians at all so maybe he’s a total wreck, but then I look at his numbers next to Josh Tomlin‘s and think… you’re seriously not giving him another shot at the rotation?

 

 

2016 Auction Review – Betternamelater

Betternamelater

bnl

The winner for Clayton Kershaw was always going to be a contender. As I’ve stated before and again. He’s almost guaranteed to be a value. I had him realistically rated as high as $150. Getting him for $117 hurts in some ways, but the team with a better name in the works, made out like bandits on a few auctions.

Hitting – Good

Manny Machado is a star in this league. Edwin Encarnacion is a fantasy star, his defense doesn’t play here. Carlos Gonzalez is still in Colorado, and even if he was not, he’s still a near lock for top five in left field. I’m higher on Adam Eaton and Curtis Granderson, lower on Ketel Marte and Dee Gordon. It will probably even out. Are we relying on Billy Butler to be a staple at the second utility spot here? Hmm. There is a lotto like about this line up, stealing Brandon Belt for $14 seems like a great buy, Keith Law probably still agrees.

Pitching – Great

Kershaw is the best player in the league. Danny Salazar, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz are all really good and interesting. I consider them all tier 2 pitchers, but if they all ended up in tier one at the end of the season I will not be surprised. I do not love Alex Wood, but between him and Nathan Eovaldi you have a solid number five and I’d be okay with Jorge De La Rosa as my sixth when he’s out of Colorado. Weeks when Kershaw pitches twice, there’s not many pitching staffs that will out-duel. He’s just so damn good. The bullpen may or may not hold this staff back. Hector Rondon has a lot of good outings, and some seriously bad ones. Joaquin Benoit is pitching in Seattle, but currently does not have a secured role.

Depth – Alright

The depth here is set to be alright. The positional flexibility plays well here. There’s no backup 2b or SS here. How many plate appearances will be left on the cutting room floor, or only slightly better, left at replacement level. Probably too many. But that could be easily patched. There is a good chance a few of these guys become legit starters as well.

Why 2016 would be bad… 

May the good lord forbid, but if Kershaw gets hurt. I mean I don’t even know what else to write. For any team if 22% of their budget was hurt early in the season for the whole season they would be easy choice as sunk. Same problem lies here. For the sake of the argument say the young three guys behind him hold up the pitching staff. Well it gets bad if Gonzalez and Granderson under perform. If Edwin Encarnacion goes missing, or worse, Machado has knee issues.

Why 2016 would be good… 

Kershaw doesn’t even have to repeat 2015, just has to be close. Salazar, Stroman and Matz all get to 25+ starts as at least tier 2 guys. Machado remains awesome, the hitters all hit above their floors and this team should be pretty solid. The question marks are probably personal preference, but it is hard to argue against he value on almost all the buys. But it hinges on, well…