It’s a Crapitol Shitty Type of Review

Marshall Law trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (JobuNeedsARefill)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Roberto Perez ($7)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Capital City Ironmen)

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02: Marshall needed a catcher so he traded down in the 5th round (11 picks total) to get a $7 Roberto Perez.  The price was basically free. So why not? Perez’ Streamer slash line is projected at 219/303/399 slash, which would be down from 239/321/452 of last year.  If he regresses that much he might not be worth owning. His biggest asset is PAs at catcher, and currently he’s expected to get a decent amount. $7 in auction for Perez would be fine, last year Tucker Barnhart went for $23. That might not be the guide to guy by, but clearly shows some people’s desperation if it goes to auction. As bad as a $23 was for Barnhart, someone bid $22.  This is a nice way to lock in some catcher PAs  and Marshall was currently carrying a blank there, so this is a cheap fix.  For Bailey?  Moving up 11 picks in the 5th makes his farm just a bit stronger than it was before this trade. Congrats.

 

Organized Chaos trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Marshall Law)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (JobuNeedsARefill)
Clayton Kershaw ($125)

Hustle’s Toxic $.02: First thought that comes to my mind when seeing this trade come in is remembering that Kershaw was traded straight up for a 5th round pick a couple months ago. So Bailey clearly profited here. Turned two 5th round picks into a 3rd. Somehow, his farm got even stronger. Back to back trades.  His rebuild is hitting its stride here.  Well done sir.

For Swinson, he gives up a 3rd round pick for a very overpriced Kershaw.  If Kershaw gets thrown back in, he goes for a lot. Maybe 90, maybe 120, maybe more. A few teams have a lot of money heading into auction, Swinson basically made his purchase at the expense of a mid round pick. It seems good. Rounding out his budget with a high end pitcher seems smart with his roster, and if it doesn’t work out, he can probably get a pretty decent haul for a Kershaw rental.  The only critique here is probably not getting on it earlier where as it might have only costed him a 4th or 5th, but that’s a minor point. Leaving auction money on the table is the worst thing you can do, and this ensures Swinson won’t.

 

Trumpa Loompas trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Capital City Ironmen)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Wade Miley ($3)

Hustle’s Toxic $.02 Wade Miley was pretty useful in the first half last season and terrible in the second half.  Trumpas picks up  $3 pitcher for a 3rd round pick. With Innings Pitched instead of starts, Miley’s disaster games will hurt a little less.  I wouldn’t bet on Miley to be a very good pitcher in 2020, especially heading to Great American Smallpark, but this also wasn’t a very big bet.  I like this move to add SP depth for Trumpas.

Yet again, Bailey has made his farm stronger by getting a mid round pick. I’m in awe of the mobility he’s created in his rebuild. At this pace, by 2025, he might have a top 10 farm in Dynasty Grinders. Things are looking up!

The trade was for the 44th pick of the 2020 draft which has now been traded back and forth at least 4 times and is now back on Bailey’s team. The anticipation of whoever is picked here (likely Noah Song), will be through the roof come draft day! 21 days away!

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Julio Teheran $33)

Trumpa Loompas trades away
2021 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Trumpa Loompas)
2022 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Trumpa Loompas)

Just when I thought the nonsense was over, they bring me back in.  Bailey is on a mission here with all these picks.  2 more 3rd rounders!  He just bumped up his window in being a top 10 farm (maybe) by a full year. 2024.

For Trumpas, I think this is fine. Ideally you only give up one 3rd rounder here.  Julio Teheran moving to a better pitchers park helps his value. $33 seems about what he’d go for in auction. If he goes for less, it wouldn’t be a tremendous amount. Trumpas adds some more depth to its rotation that was in dire need for it. Maybe seeing Kershaw go off the board earlier in the day inspired Trumpas to make his de facto auction purchase.

Even if I’m not optimistic about his chances for Tehran’s success in 2020, the price was low enough for the gamble. Other than the Kershaw deal, that seems to be the trend in all three of these.

Bailey got some trade sweetners and since we are expanding 5 spots through 2023, these third rounders will have some value going forward.

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | In Line 4 the Win

Capital City Ironmen sends: C Jorge Alfaro
In Line 4 the Win sends: 2B/LF/RF Chris Coghlan ($4)

Jordan’s thoughts: -This move struck me as a curious one when I first saw it. I’m not super familiar with Alfaro, but catching prospects are the lowest form of prospects available. So the cost is pretty low. I like players like Chris Coghlan. He covers you at three positions and if he’s facing off vs a lefty, he’s good enough to stick at utility on a daily basis. I like this deal a lot for Capital City they gain a low risk medium reward bench player for a prospect. it’s a win.

Andrew’s thoughts: I like Chris Coghlan a lot. Coming into 2016, he had a .358 wOBA against right-handed pitching over his previous 781 at-bats. That’s, like, really good. Particularly from a 2B. The bonus with Coghlan is that he’s also got LF/RF eligibility and has started a game at 3B this year, which means four more and he’ll have that unlocked. I’ve got a few decent outfielders that each qualify at just one corner spot, which means having to spend extra roster spaces on back-ups. It may not happen immediately, but adding Coghlan at least opens up some better opportunities for flexibility as the season goes on.

Meanwhile, Jorge Alfaro is a guy that just sort of fell into my lap on draft day, so I didn’t feel super connected to him. And obviously I don’t place a ton of value on catchers. His power and K’s profile makes him risky, but all prospects are. If he can make it to the majors without being converted to the outfield, the power alone could make him a league average catcher, which is valuable given that he’ll have cost control status.

ICYMI: Review of last week!

Last week was a busy week for Dynasty Grinders. As of today we’re now a full week removed from auction draft day. That 8 hour marathon was capped off this week by reviews, thoughts, notes and a monster trade. If you missed any of it catch up below!

The Auction Draft is Over! – Jordan writes a post last Sunday reflecting on the his immediate thoughts post draft.

Where was the value at? – Jordan follows up with a post looking at where the auction value was left in the draft. Or maybe where it was not.

Trade: Beach Bum | Rocky Mtn Oysters – Andrew and Jordan break down a minor yet fun trade.

The Best of What’s Left – Keith of We Talk Fantasy Sports reviews what could be found on the waiver wire/free agent pool after the 480 selection draft.

Some thoughts about my team… – Andrew reviews his draft and breaks down his own team point by point.

Trade: Rocky Mtn Oysters | Preseason Double Stuffs – Andrew and Jordan break down the first major trade of Dynasty Grinders history.

Fun with similar price points… – Andrew looks at the draft again to compare players bought at the beginning and end of the draft showing how the nomination order probably played a large role in determining some players values.

Bryce vs Max part duex – Jordan takes a second and likely final look at the biggest trade of the week. Compares the two players’ 2015 campaigns on a week by week comparison.

Team by team auction draft review and rankings! – Jordan kicks off his team by team auction review with a primer.

Each team’s auction review:

2016 Auction Review – Preseason Double Stuffs

Preseason double stuffs

pf

The cookie munching team ended their draft with a case for the best pitching staff in the league. That’s hardly even a stretch. Value was gained with a couple of guys at good values like James Shields and Jake Odorizzi. Value was lost spending on $45 on three second basemen. All of whom could easily finish outside the top ten at their position. Questionable and unreasonable risks.

Hitting – Uh-oh

Things must have gone wrong here on draft day. In a vacuum, I really like Carlos Gomez, Shin-soo Choo, and Michael Conforto. Nick Castellanos and Yasmany Tomas as your third base platoon for $25? Is that a hedge? Odor, Profar and Schoop at second base? I’m not even certain they’re good trade bait. Greg Bird for $7 to not play this year I like, but this roster needs Bird this year. Moreland at first base could be okay, unlikely. Eduardo Escobar seems prime to lose his everyday job, and Travis d’Arnaud is a perfectly okay catcher.

Pitching – Oustanding

This was a case of sitting on Very Good, seeing the bullpen and decided outstanding. I’m not sold on it, but I’m not betting against Max Scherzer. Chris Archer was great last year why not repeat. James Shields seems like a safe bounce back candidate. Odorizzi is pretty good. I like Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen even if when he misses time. Zach Britton has been solid for a few years. The first four starters cemented. When you fill out 5 and 6 with a choice of Eduardo Rodriguez, Jesse Hahn or Ian Kennedy that’s pretty exciting. They’re flush with pitching. Lance Lynn to hold the DL down this year like Greg Bird for under $10 seems like a potential steal.

Depth – Good

I think technically it is alright. But, again I gave myself credit for depth with injured guys, so I’ll do the same here. They have coverage even 3 or 4 deep at some positions, that’s a good thing no matter what. The starting pitchers are deep clearly. Frankly you could lose the entire hitting line up and probably still compete here. #backhandedcompliment

Why 2016 would be bad… 

What if James Shields is broken. If Max or Archer go down too, almost all is lost. This team paid for future in a few spots, they can definitely handle some injuries if the upside shows up. However, a lot of that bet is hinged on Max and Archer. A great bet to make, but that can change in a day.

Why 2016 would be good… 

If you get a tier 2 season from Shields or Odorizzi and a tier 3 from the other you’re so sweet. Scherzer and Archer should be at the tier 1 level. That alone will allow this team to compete all year at a good level. If they’re paying attention to matchups with the hitters, perhaps there’s some three headed monster that makes a good player at one position that I’m missing. More power to them. Well actually yeah, they need more power to them.

Where was the value at?

Immediately within the first hour of the auction draft it was clear that value was not easy to find. Prices of players were not excruciatingly high or overspent. But, these prices were high enough to ensure that there was not large values at the top either. Shrewd drafting made Saturday’s event an interesting battle of attrition as the player pool continued to shrink. As the pool shrank there was a seemingly never ending pile of teams with money looming over each auction.

Immediately, it looks like the teams that left money on the table are the most hurt. 50% of the league, 8-teams spent 100% of their budget. Leaving zero dollars left on the table. Of the remaining teams:

The Foundation – $1
Beach Bum – $5
Senior Squids – $6
TBD – $10
Preseason Favorite – $10
We Talk Fantasy Sports – $14
Capital City Ironmen – $21
The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses – $28

In some cases that unspent auction money being left on the table is not terribly frightening. But, at the bottom of that list, I can only imagine the day after regret. Good fantasy baseball talent auctioned off in that $10-$20 range. Even if you did not need a particular player, at least that drafted player has value. These extra auction dollars left unspent, are lost. They have no value.

Moving on to the auction money that got spent. More importantly how that money got spent. We can see how efficient teams were compared to this setting of the FanGraphs Auction Calculator. Keep in mind this calculator does not factor in our dynasty format (the hidden and unknown value of opportunity cost for keeping guys), nor does it fully understand our relievers scoring. But, for this exercise, and based on the results of the draft, it was quite accurate.

value

 

What you see above is the chart of how each of the teams did. Teams with positive values, overspent according to the FanGraphs calculator and the teams with negative values found bargains. The rank is from 1 “most efficient” to 16 “least efficient”.

Now before you go and say well done and patting yourself on the back, this is removing a lot of context away from the story. I believe you are sitting in a great place if you were most efficient with value, and you spent all of your auction budget. My team The Foundation finds itself there, so take that bias for what it is worth.

If you did not spend all of your auction money and you were not efficient in how you spent the money either, well you may have some extra work to do. Maybe your projections and targets are valued differently than how FanGraphs did and if so you’re probably okay! FanGraphs and projections are wrong more often than not.

Going a step further, let us take a look at everyone’s “best value”. What you should see below is a table that has the FanGraphs calculator value, how much they were paid for in the auction, and then the difference.

 

ss+(2016-03-13+at+10.06.30)

The best value of the day was projections wonder-boy Wei-Yin Chen who was bought for $17, and had been projected to be worth $48. Chen’s transition to the National League, to the Marlins ballpark and being away from the American League East is likely positive.

It does seems like pitchers stole the value show: Alex Wood, CJ Wilson, James Shields, Jeff Samardzija and Jimmy Nelson were their representative team’s best value and created over $20 in value per player. Outfielders might be the next undervalued commodity in the draft as you see Alex Gordon, Nick Markakis, Melky Cabrera, Josh Reddick and Khris Davis on the list above.

Finally, we also have a look at each team’s “worst” value. Now, I must warn you. If you’re the kind of guy who’s into the hot young star and cannot stand to see them in any negative light, please look away.

ss+(2016-03-13+at+10.03.38)

Corey Seager, Addison Russell, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Phew these boys cost a pretty penny to claim. Trea Turner, Noah Syndergaard, Randal Grichuk and Jurickson Profar were all also coveted prospects on draft day. None of those guys are terribly far off in lost value, they’re all capable of being worth what they’re paid. Plus we have discussed before about the opportunity cost of getting said players. There is value in these overspends. But, how much?