Trade: Capital City Income | In Line for the Win

Capital City Income sends: RP: Cody Allen ($9)
In Line for the Win sends:  $2 2018 Auction Budget

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02: When I saw this trade go down via email notification, I wasn’t aware of the financials so I asked Bailey on slack and his response was a classic ” $2, assuming he read my note.” This is as good a time as any to remind people to read the notes in trade propsals.

Before I get down to #analysis, it should be noted this was a trade for $2.¬† It’s less than .5% of someone’s auction budget, so even if Neal changes his mind and doesn’t even keep Allen… no real harm was done. This is very obviously a minor trade.

For Bailey: Oh what a difference a year makes.¬† It was just last offseason when I was flooding everyone with offers of Adam Wainwright¬†¬†and Yordano Ventura (RIP) for minuscule budget amounts like this one. I was told by both commissioners via conversation and trade reviews that it made no sense to sell someone for so cheap. “You should just throw them back in to see if they go for more.” Fast forward a year later and Bailey has earned his first Hustle Merit Badge(TM). Congrats!¬† Bailey gets $2 for a guy he wasn’t going to keep and probably feels comfortable with someone else having for $9.¬† People keep handing money over to Bailey at the rate that he will somehow keep $500 worth of players and be in on Ohtani, not really but getting closer.

 

For Neal

 

Including the $11 he has invested in Allen for 2018 ($2 to Bailey and a $9 price), Neal also has Devenski ($9) and Jansen ($14). To keep all 3 would cost him $34.

Expensive relievers aren’t my thing and I don’t really know how to judge Allen’s worth in general for this league let alone with the new scoring system.¬† I personally rather not invest in relievers at the expense of starters or hitters, but I could see why Neal might be inclined to have 3 of the best relievers in the game…. lineup setting.

It was about a month ago when Dustin Pedroia came up in a slack conversation and I joked about how he wasn’t in Neal’s lineup very often, he assured me¬† he was.¬† I had to go look at the tape. Sure enough, despite being one of IL4W’s best hitters on a ppg basis, Dustin Pedroia sat on the bench for a staggering 25% of his PAs. In a daily baseball league, you’re just not giving yourself a chance if you’re not starting your best players.¬† By having 3 of the best relievers in the game, Neal will hopefully “set it and forget it” all year unless injured. Not having to deal with picking up¬† or playing matchups with relievers¬† is a huge time saver.

It’s going to cost him 6-7% of his budget to have the luxury of not dealing with relievers, but for some teams it may be worth it.

I also think having an elite bullpen raises some interesting possibilities if your season goes south.¬† If IL4W is out of it by the trade deadline, does a contending team who barely spent on a bullpen buy a whole bullpen from Neal? I don’t think it would be crazy. In real baseball we see a team sell their best reliever all the time, but it would be really exciting to see a team sell 3 elite relievers to one team.

2016 Auction Review – In Line 4 the Win

In Line 4 The Win

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And with great giant lightning bolts, the team wins their super hero, their Thor. Holy cow what a bid. I mean there’s probably cause for Thor costing $80, but holy Norse God he¬†is still young and fresh. Here¬†is the league’s token all upside team. It does¬†not¬†typically work for me, but if it works for IL4W. I am¬†not certain I actually know anything.

Hitting – Alright

Kyle Schwarber could have been the steal of the draft for 2016. Being a qualified catcher playing every day in the outfield. However, at $52 you’re looking to see him be as good as we was last year for an entire season. It¬†is clearly possible, he could be better, but IL4W¬†paid for it. Anthony Rizzo at $75 seems like a great price to me. Is Starlin Castro back to for real now? Joc Pederson is an enigma much like Colby Rasmus. Should be awesome, but um something’s not right. Dustin Pedroia and David Wright offer yesterday’s stars as older staples that in a day to day shuffling, should offer higher floors. Freddie Freeman being hurt before the draft could have dropped him into value territory. There is just enough question marks over the whole stack that I settled on alright.

Pitching – Not Quite

Something is missing here. Noah Syndergaard¬†is a tier 2 with tier 1 potential. Jose Quintana is a tier 2 that everyone wants to believe is a tier 4. Carlos Rodon getting paid $35 means he needs to be awesome soon. Matt Moore as your 4 is scary. The top half just isn’t good enough to get behind and the bottom half is even scarier. It clearly could work out, but I’m missing what that is to make this rotation great. Bullpen should be good though. Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon should be reliable stable relievers, as they come anyway.

Depth – Very Good

There is a plethora of decent talent that can be flexible and move around on this roster. The hitting depth is great, but the pitching depth drags this down quite a bit. Jose Reyes is a huge question mark, but at $8, possibly $10 next year is an exciting gamble. Guys like Matt Duffy, Brett Lawrie and Billy Burns could all finish high enough to start by the end of the year. They all are a small hot streak from being good enough to flip for something even more interesting.

Why 2016 would be bad…¬†

All of that upside could be egg on this teams face. Sure, it is exciting, the possibility of being right and awesome on young guys in a dynasty league is incredibly tempting. Just like a few other teams, this team is currently built for everything to go right, or its on to 2017.

Why 2016 would be¬†good…¬†

Well Syndergaard, Quintana and Rodon obviously blow away expectations. The hitters are good enough, as is, to carry.¬†They need these pitchers to be at their friendliest projections. Rizzo and Freeman could battle each other out for National League Silver Slugger, Joc Pederson gets his head on straight. Lots of upside here, it’s all over.