FAAB Pick Up of the Month: July 2019

Congratulations are in order!

The Commissioners Office of Dynasty Grinders is pleased to announce the FAAB Pick Up of the Month for July 2019: Brandon Crawford of the San Francisco Giants!

Crawford, who went for $4 of otherwise worthless FAAB, amassed an astounding 56.3 points in a single day. It was a thin schedule day, making this streaming effort all the more amazing. Wow. Stunning. Congratulations to Mr. Crawford!

When pressed for the details behind this FAAB addition, Capital City Ironmen general manager Andrew Bailey said, “I can’t take all the credit. I couldn’t have done it without my spreadsheet. I have a complicated algorithm that really favors players in doubleheaders at Coors Field, especially when they have the platoon advantage against terrible pitchers.”

Travis d’Arnaud, who put up 49 points in a single game, was named the runner-up for this award. Better luck next month, Mr. d’Arnaud, and congratulations to Josh Leavitt and Long Ball to LF for having the month’s second best FAAB pick-up. ūü§∑‚Äć‚ôāÔłŹ

Prospects Lucius Fox, who was picked up for $1 on July 13 by The Foundation, and Parker Meadows, scooped up by Trust the Process for $0 on July 12, failed to receive any votes for this coveted award. Both players are turds.

Trade: The Foundation | Who’s Your Haddy?

The Foundation trades away

  • 2020¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†4 (Who’s Your Haddy?)
  • Montas, Frankie $5
  • Waters, Drew (prospect)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Sale, Chris $94

Jordan’s Thoughts

I mean its Chris Sale. He used April for Spring Training, and now he’s a top 5 pitcher again. Frankie Montas got caught doping, he won’t pitch again this year, at least in a Dynasty Grinders season window. For $5, based on his performance gain, Montas is a huge piece of this trade. He’s hard to lose. But, anytime with PEDs, there’s just a ton of questions that cloud the value.

Perhaps he comes back next season and he’s a top 10 pitcher at essentially no cost. Perhaps he comes back and he’s average. Who knows. He had value, but no longer had value to me for this year where I’m trying to win. Easy for me to move away from.

Being in the 6th spot in a 6 team playoff format, this kind of trade helps me hang on. Once you’re in the playoffs, in our head to head format, pitchers like Chris Sale can swing a playoff week for you. Who knows? He could help me make a run.

For Haddy’s, selling Sale makes enough sense. I’m guessing when he shopped Sale around he was hoping for a stronger market. Getting back Montas is fine. Drew Waters is a FV55 center fielder who in double-A is crushing the ball. His 152 wRC+ over 80 games trends well for the 20-year-old. Waters has been climbing prospect charts for a while now and shows no real signs of slowing down.

Overall, I love this trade for myself. Losing Montas and Waters is easily worth the gamble to hold on and solidify myself for a playoff run. Even if I miss the playoffs, Sale is keepable at whatever price tag. He’s just that consistently good.

BAILEY’s Thoughts

A lot of what I wrote about the Verlander trade applies here and I don’t want to go heavy negative again twice.

So having said that, predictably, yes, I like this for Jordan. When this deal first went down, I sort of assumed it’d be tough for Jordan to keep Chris Sale at $99 — but he’s probably gonna cost around $110 when all is said and done — but that’s not true. Andrew McCutchen coming off injury at $54 is an easy cut. Jose Quintana, who went for an inflated auction lack-of-pitching price and will be $60, is an easy cut. That right there is $114, which is Sale’s max value. Anyone in their right mind is trading McCutchen/Quintana for Sale, so sure. Obviously that doesn’t include raises, greed, or cost control arbitration, but it’s close enough to where Jordan can move around lesser, meaningless pieces and make it work. Like, you don’t keep a $28 Yasiel Puig if it means losing Sale. Ditto a $68 Corey Seager. So yeah, great deal for 2019 Jordan and beyond.

For Haddy, I’ll stay positive: I love Drew Waters. I picked him up last year and think he’s going to be really good. The Braves future outfield looks stacked. The 4th round pick is… literally nothing. I can’t be positive there.

The best part of this trade is Frankie Montas, who will be $7 pre-greed and while he’s risky, at least we’ve seen flashes of excellence at the major league level. Montas is the type of piece missing from so many of these rebuild deals, where teams seem hell bent on picks and prospects and blind to actual major league talent.

This year Montas pitched to a brilliant 2.90 FIP and 3.38 xFIP over 90 innings. And contrary to what Jordan wrote, I don’t feel like the PEDs are a big red flag over his performance. He added a splitter to his repertoire this year, giving him a fourth pitch, and it worked out great for him. PEDs won’t change that. In fact, for Haddy, the suspension is pretty great. He just gets to sit and rest his arm for three months. Yay.

To me, at 202 career IP and now that he’s got this new pitch, Montas is essentially still a prospect. He’s only 26 and pitchers take time. But unlike any other pitching prospect on a Top 100 list, he’s done stuff at the majors. There’s a track record here. He’s not a total dart throw. So for Haddy, I like the main piece coming back being one of immediate, somewhat proven fantasy relevance.

Trade: TBD | Who’s Your Haddy?

TBD trades away

  • Solak, Nick (prospect)
  • May, Dustin (prospect)
  • Adams, Jordyn (prospect)
  • Groshans, Jordan (prospect)
  • 2020¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†1 (The Process)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Verlander, Justin $50

Jordan’s Thoughts

Justin Verlander is OLD. 36 is a high number for a baseball player and fantasy owners alike. However, this deal is about finishing this year strong. TBD currently in first place, is padding their roster for a deep playoff run. It is smart, makes sense, and its for a player that clearly makes a difference.

Verlander is currently 5th in highest points scored in our league. He’s averaging nearly 42 points a start. In a two start week, he can bury your opponent. He didn’t help Haddy enough, as the rest of your roster still matters, but for TBD’s duo, the rest of their roster was fine before they added Verlander.

For TBD making this trade is easy. Trading some of tomorrow’s lottery tickets for an actual top end upgrade for today is something you do every day. Prospects are easy to come by, teams need them, they’re nice to have, but this is the best way (in my humble opinion) to use prospects. To push to win. Waiting on them to mature is fine, you hope they make crazy weird jumps to relevance that makes you feel good and seem like a genius. But, none of us really know.

For Haddy, well if you’re out, these kinds of deals make sense. Verlander isn’t helping you win this year, winning is no longer a top concern. Verlander would help you win next year, however he is older, and he’s a pitcher and they break. If I’m Haddy I’m pretty happy with this return. He’s getting two top 100 prospects, May who’s a top 20, plus two other prospects who are better than interesting.

The two Jordan’s (Jordyn?) were first round top 20 picks in the MLB 2018 draft. Both grade out as 45+ FV guys with hit tools being their ticket. Betting on those guys is a good idea.

Dustin May (60FV) just got called up to AAA and will be tested by the new home run ball. So far in 2019 he has looked good and projects to be a middle of the rotation, perhaps potentially a top end starter.

Nick Solak (50FV) is also in AAA for the Rays/Expos and he walks and hits for power. He’s the classic profile I like to target for my hitters in these kinds of leagues. For me he looks like a high floor hitter, with a ceiling that potentially could be very sexy.

I like what Haddy got back, but he’ll miss Verlander next year when he’s going to push to get back into the playoffs again. TBD will have forgotten who these prospects are this time next year. They have shown time and time again their ability to reload the system cost effectively. Verlander doesn’t guarantee a championship, but it makes it harder for them to lose it.

Bailey’s Thoughts

Okay, so up front: Jordan’s already written his review, but I’m not going to read it first. So if I repeat anything he said, sorry.

In short: I love this for TBD and don’t understand it at all for Haddy. I really don’t.

Here’s the thing about this league, in my opinion: we’re in year four and there has, to my recollection, never been an “ace” starting pitcher at auction. Let me think. I think Luis Severino was in our second year, but he was just a random former prospect then. And are we confident he’s an “ace” currently? I’m sure not. I guess Zach Greinke, Madison Bumgarner, and David Price were the year before last. But is Price an “ace”? I think you want him as your SP2 or SP3, not SP1. Is Bumgarner an ace? I’d debate that, though he’s obviously good. Greinke’s an ace. So okay, in four years, one proven, surefire ace SP has made it to auction, and I think at the time there were looming questions about him. That’s the thing. These top tier starters do not hit auction. They don’t. Verlander won’t. TBD is 100% keeping him unless he suffers an injury, or I guess trading him.

I guess also, when I say “ace,” it’s kind of deceiving because it makes you think pitcher. I’m sort of thinking as just overall, elite player. Mike Trout doesn’t get to auction. Cody Bellinger doesn’t. Christian Yelich doesn’t. Freddie Freeman doesn’t. The only way you get these guys is by trading for them or by stumbling upon one.

Here’s what happens, time and time again: all the stud pitchers get sold for prospects because their salary or age is so terrifying. Oh no, Verlander is 36 and my goal is to build a dynasty that dominates for eight years in a row, gotta dump him. Then there’s 6-8 teams with $200+ of cap space to spend on the ace they assume will get cut, but instead, those 6-8 teams get to fight over Chris Archer or Dallas Keuchel or Buster Posey whoever. One of each of that tier of player gets dispersed to those 6-8 teams, but because those 6-8 teams gutted themselves to get a low salary, that one player doesn’t change anything. And also half those players bust because they were risky to begun with, thus being sent back to auction. Rinse and repeat. The year we had Greinke, Bumgarner, Price, and oh yeah, Shohei Ohtani, guess what? Four separate teams totaling $218 in salary. So if you’ve rebuilt down to $250 of cash to spend, you better: (a) hope there are four players like that at auction, (b) win two or three, if not all four, and (c) then hope the player actually pans out to be an impact player. Living the auction dream is scary shit.

I want very badly to know what the market was for a $50, starting at $52 to keep, Justin Verlander. At worst, he gets $15 of greed and costs $67. THAT. IS. NOTHING. He’s the 5th overall scorer right now, this year. He finished third last year. He finished 19th the year before and third a year earlier. I get that pitchers are fragile, old pitchers especially, but this dude will impact your team more than almost any other player. I continue to not understand why a guy like this is considered such a bad risk but a pitching prospect isn’t. JV’s a 99th percentile performer and he fetched… two good prospects (May, Groshans), a couple prospects that teams like HLR, TBD, and Long Ball scoop off waivers with regularity, and a draft pick. That’s it? I’m a dipshit for not submitting offers. Shame on me. I didn’t think I had the pieces. But I want to know if any “rebuilders” inquired here. Haddy? Did you get offers from the teams that have gutted their rosters down to $200? Why didn’t you engage with me on Trevor Story (was it the Matt Chapman thing, where cost control is only cool until the player is a stud, then it’s not sexy anymore) for Verlander? WHYYYYYY?!

I like Dustin May and all, but TINSTAAPP. I like Jordan Groshans too, but optimistically, he’s not scoring fantasy points until 2021. Maybe Nick Solak becomes Jeff McNeil or something, which is helpful but lacking real impact. A first round pick? What freakin’ ever.

If I’m Haddy, I’d rather just keep Verlander and run it back in 2020 and maybe 2021 and maybe even 2022, especially after already dumping Chris Sale. Cut freakin’ Jose Abreu‘s $70 salary and just keep Verlander. Or trade Abreu for half this same package. Easy. Sure, maybe you flip all the ones you just got for this type of guy later, but maybe not. Again, the list of guys who produce like JV is super slim. Bird in hand, etc. I’m not taking this package for Scherzer. I doubt HLR’s taking it for Arenado. Dan’s not taking it for Yelich or Gerrit Cole. Maybe May becomes Syndergaard 2.0, but cost controlled, and I look foolish. Except not really, because even if that happens, that’s not even remotely the most likely outcome. That’s dumb luck. If he ever, at any point, becomes Verlander right now, you basically hit the lottery. I’ll just leave this here:

Trade: The Process | Who’s Your Haddy?

The Process trades away

  • Bader, Harrison $3.04
  • Rocchio, Brayan (prospect)
  • 2021¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†2 (Who’s Your Haddy?)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Encarnaci√≥n, Edwin $50

Jordan’s Thoughts

Edwin was a great Mariner for three months hitting homers left and right. Now he is a New York Yankee on a playoff run in a easier stadium to hit homers in. He’s a huge asset and definitely a target to grab.

The Process is currently in 10th place, sitting 6-7 and matched up in a must win week 14. Adding Edwin right now makes all the sense in the world and might make the difference who knows.

Best part, in my opinion, is that Ferns here has options. Keeping Edwin at $50 isn’t outrageous. You have to spend the money,¬† he’s a quality star worth spending on. In two weeks, you can trade him again, I think a similar package in 10 days is available, perhaps the package is even better.

The draft pick has whatever value draft picks have. Brayan Rocchio is an 18-year-old short stop in the Indians system and FanGraphs rates his hit tool at a 60 FV. That’s pretty. He’s currently doing alright in low-A ball and already on the top 100 list (currently 80).

Harrison Bader being in this deal is a punt from Ferns. Haddy is clearly wondering if there’s anything there yet. Bader’s age 25 season so far has been pretty bad. .296 wOBA and 82 wRC+ shows a cold start for the 2019 season. He’s cost controlled, not expensive and last year he was pretty good. Last year his BABIP was .358, this year its .261. Bader who’s pretty quick, probably settles in most years closer to the former number. He’s walking more, striking out slightly less than last year. Things look like a huge buy low guy. But, overall the ceiling here seems pretty low. He’s a CF, that fantasy wise probably tops out in the 10-12 spot, probably more typically in the 16-20 spot. He’s nice to have, value wise, but he needs to be more like last year, less like this year.

For the Haddy’s who are selling, this deal is fine. I know he was shopped around and if this was the the best package for Edwin, sure fine. It seems light, but its not awful. I like what Ferns is doing here, even though he’s playing me this week, don’t hate what Haddy did, seems like a solid trade for both parties.

BAILEY’s Thoughts

I like this trade for both teams. I wanted Edwin myself, but one glance at my roster construction tells you I just didn’t have much need for a 1Bman. So mostly, those negotiations were my way of getting Haddy to talk to me. We chatted, it was fun, so I didn’t make a trade but still feel like a winner.

For The Process, I like the aggressiveness. Edwin is clearly an awesome hitter with a track record of mashing for the better part of a decade. Could he suddenly hit the brick wall of age and suck? Sure. But right now he’s a lock for 30+, approaching 40 homers, and even with the juiced ball, those guys don’t grow on trees. His salary is high, but Ferns has strategically spent four years whittling down his budget to nothing, so he very easily has the option to keep Edwin at $52+ next year. I’m a big believer that worrying about a player’s salary is a waste of time. Lock in the points, worry about the stupid budget stuff later. There’s not a payout for having a $200 roster. And if this is just a short term move for Ferns to try and push into the playoffs, that’s cool too. If you make the playoffs, you put your $150 buy-in back in your pocket. If you don’t, you get a fighting chance at $75 or, if you’re really bad, a shot at a high draft pick. I’d much rather make a trade and gamble that I win back $150 of actual, real life cash than sit idly by for either of the other two prizes. I don’t think the price was that high.

I like Bryan Rocchio as a prospect. He was a guy I was targeting in our minors draft. He was expendable for Ferns though but should be a nice piece for Haddy by the time his retooled team is ready to compete again in 2023. Just kidding, Haddy! You won’t be ready to compete again until 2025.

Harrison Bader and the pick, meanwhile, are pretty blah. Hader will likely get just the minimum $2 raise to $5. I think given his prospect pedigree and that he’s immune to greed, that’s keepable into 2020. No risk there. I think there’s even a decent chance that Haddy opens up center field by trading Mike Trout to TBD for whichever prospects they scooped off waivers this morning, at which point, boom!, Bader is a starting CF in Dynasty Grinders.

Trade: Senior Squids | TBD

TBD trades away

  • Marte, Noelvi (prospect)
  • White, Evan (prospect)
  • Kelenic, Jarred (prospect)
  • 2020¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†1 (TBD)

Senior Squids trades away

  • Chapman, Matt $9.03

Jordan’s thoughts: Any time you can take a top 20, possibly top 10 asset in the entire league anf turn it into a trio of Mariners prospects and a draft pick you can use to draft another, you have to do it, right?¬†¬†

No. No you don’t.

Let’s look at Matt Chapman. He’s clearly old at 26 and 2 months. Last year he was a 137 wRC+, .369 wOBA hitter. This year, half way through, he’s been a 137 wRC+, .372 wOBA player. He’s walking slightly more. Striking out slightly less. Hitting way more homers.¬†

That’s a fun guy to own. An even better guy to have in the cost controlled setting of Dynasty Grinders. He’s currently the 40th highest scoring player. There’s 11 guys currently cost controlled with more points scored. Chapman IS THE GUY that you build around. He just is.

So, the return… Jarred Kelenic (last year’s 6th overall pick in our draft, a pick Squids traded to TBD for Ryan O’Hearn ūü§Į) lit Mariners twitter on fire early on the season by destroying Single-A ball hitting a 179 wRC+ in 50 games. He got promoted and as a 19-year-young hitter, his first 20 games in High-A has been 99 wRC+. Not awful, he’s young for the league, will probably catch up. But he’s already showing that he’s not the Juan Soto/Ronald Acuna type prospect that’s going to debut at 19 in MLB. He needs time and seasoning. The hit tools are there. He’s probably a good fantasy asset down the line.

Evan White is currently 23-years-old and has been doing alright in Double-A ball for the Mariners system. Another top 100 prospects on the FanGraphs lists and projects to be an average 1Bman that our league has come to love. He has the tools and talents to be some what of an asset in the future, but at 23 in double-A, the ceiling is just lower.

Noelvi Marte is 17-years-young and in rookie ball hitting slightly above average for the level with a 113 wRC+ in 23 games played. Scouts like his hit tools, but he’s not lighting up the charts or looking anything much more than a potential slow climbing prospect. Good to have, yet typically easy to find and acquire.¬†

Now, based on my simple player review, you are probably gathering that this a slam dunk, what the fuck, how did TBD do this kind of deal. And if you assumed that, well you’re right.¬†

TBD, currently at 11-2 in the league, sitting in first place, adds a cheap fantasy star for nickels on the dollar. Chapman is the best player in this deal now. Likely the best player in this deal four years from now. Possibly (probably) the best player in this deal in 2027 as a 34 year old. Even if the prospects were better, you still do this type of deal to acquire this kind of player. 100 out of 100 times. 

Senior Squids is currently in 9th place, sitting at 6-7 on the path to mediocrity again. It sucks that things have not broken the right way and the motivation to retool/build for next season seems tempting. The problem is that the obvious plan is to build around guys like Matt Chapman, not give them away to save like $20 of budget and assume the risk of a prospect. If you want to trade an asset like Chapman, the return should be major league ready cost controlled players who are on the rise, PLUS¬†this same minor league package. If you’re not getting that…

HOLD THE ASSET.

I’m sorry, the best plan here for either team is to have Matt Chapman. If you’re concerned about some fluke and having so much stock in one player and you REALLY want to diversify the asset, you have to get more than this. If more does not exist, just hold. Don’t cave into the market that you are forcing yourself into.

Have a plan. Develop the plan. Otherwise you’re on a captainless ship, swaying back and forth in the seas heading in no clear direction based on gut calls hoping to find land. Maybe you luck out. Good luck.¬†

Return of trade reviews.

Yep, they need to happen. The league was born from it. We went soft and catered to the bullshit. If anything it gets discussion going. I’m willing to eat every single word in this post, printed out on paper (and I hate printing internet things) if the return here wins Squids or the Mariners a championship.

You’re Welcome

THE PROCESS trades:                                     

SS- Dansby Swanson                                      

SP- Tyler Skagg                                                 

1B- Pavin Smith (A+)                                      

OF- Lazaro Armenteros (A+)

ORGANIZED CHAOS trades:

 SP- Matt Strahm

  2B/SS- Addison Russell

1B- THE Christian Walker

It’s difficult to review your own trade. You obviously made the deal to get something you want and are at least satisfied with the results. I have been know, in the past,¬† to decline trade offers with the question “why would I do that?” So for this trade review we will ask a similar question, “why would¬† they do that?”

THE PROCESS – I wanted Matt Strahm. Yes, he costs $45, has been homer prone lately, and recently looked terrible against the Marlins. I still think he’s the best player in this trade, pitches better moving foward, and, with my budget room, salary isnt a big consideration for the next couple years. This deal was basically Strahm for Dansby Swanson, who I have told others that I have a thing for, with other pieces included for roster considerations. Fernando Tatis JR, and Ketel Marte have made Swanson tradeable, but lets discuss those other pieces:

Addison Russell – I have always firmly believed in Humanistic Pscychology and am a big fan of Carl Rogers, who encourgaed helpers to accept people for who they are, meet them on their level, and work through personal biases… Even after doing that Addison Russell is still a shitty person. However, I think he’s still a solid fantasy backup middle infielder, with the potential to be more than that in the long run. Thank God this is just¬† fantasy, as a social worker I feel unclean owning him.

Christian Walker-  Walker was one of the hottest players to start the 2019 season. He then slumped mightly including a 3-for-44 stretch. Hes starting to show life again, averaging 10 points per game over the last week.  His 30% K rate means he likey wont enter 2020 as part of the Process, but Im hoping to ride a couple hot streaks along the way and sit him otherwise.

ORGANIZED CHAOS:  Why would he do that? Basically,  Swinson wanted Swanson.  He also  wanted a body at SP to fill in for Strahm, who Im assuming he has soured on after throwing three mulit-homer games in a row, including that aforementioned dud against the Marlin. As several of us know, he was also VERY motivated to move Christian Walker.

Dansby Swanson – Swanson was the first selection in the 2015 MLB draft. He peaked as the #4 prospect in 2016 at MLb.com, who at that time gave his hit tool a 60 grade with average pop in his bat. He currently is SS#12 in our league and averaging 5.67 points per game. He’s only 25 years old, with a Dynasty Grinders’salary of $5.¬† I think this is what Chaos can expect from him moving foward. I again assume that Chaos is expecting¬† more, and if he’s right could come out of this deal a winner.

Tyler Skaggs – In trade talks I’ve called Skaggs a “good pitcher.” I apologize for those I lied to. I dont think Coach Swinson was necessarily looking for a good pitcher, as much as a warm body to fill a rotaton spot. That’s what he got. Skaggs can be good at times, as he was for most of last season. He is probably a league average pitcher with the propensity for getting injured .

Pavin Smith РI spent a FYPD 1st round pick on Pavin Smith. He was well regarded coming out of the 2017 MLB draft and was taken #7 by the Diamondbacks. Smith is 23 in AA, with a career line of .270/.358/.404. I dont think he makes much of an impact unless he develops power to match his strong batting eye. I lost patience with him, and dont think I will miss him. Chaos gets a guy with a good pedigree and the abilty to take a walk. 

Lazaro Armenteros- It feels like we’ve been hearing about this guy forever, but he’s only 20. Ive seen Armenteros creeping up on some top prospects lists, and have heard some good things about his power. His K rate is currently 40%, leading me to believe he also wont be missed by The Process. I assume he’s just a flyer taken by Chaos.

SO WHO WINS?

This is a couple of medicocre teams, trading medicocre pieces. I got more current useful¬† pieces, so I feel good about my return. Coach Swanson got guys he likes, so he might argue the same… The real winners, Grinders, are YOU. I promise no more daily trade offers including Christian Walker. You’re Welcome.

 

 

In Memorial (Day) of when we did Trade Reviews

The Evil Otters trades away
2022 Draft Pick, Round 4 (The Evil Otters

The Process trades away
Aguilar, Jes√ļs ($12)

AND

The Evil Otters trades away
Cabrera, Miguel ($53)

The Process trades away
Amaya, Miguel

 

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $.02: I guess we can look at this trade as 1 trade, or 2, it doesn’t really matter.¬† ¬†Miguel Cabrera seems like an easy cut at his contract after this season, but I probably would have shopped around harder than to settle for a catcher in A ball who doesn’t particularly have a high ceiling.¬† I’d argue a 3rd round pick might be better than Amaya.¬† Fangraphs does have Amaya at 55 hit and power, which if it comes true would certainly be an above average catcher, but this seems like years away and Amaya might need¬† a team change.¬† Not a prospect I would have targeted per Hustle Media’s Prospect Rankings‚ĄĘ. ¬†Perhaps Kyle should have put Miguel Cabrera on the #tradeblock, but then again in this league a guy over 30 with an expensive contract it’s basically implied “no interest”.¬† I like this trade a lot for Ferns because he got a guy who fits a positional need and will play almost every day, and has a chance to be better than he has shown this season, and he got him for close to free.¬† As Miguel Cabrera wasn’t going to be part of the Evil Otters following this season, it’s not like Kyle lost much. After his team’s previous owner traded a bunch of draft picks and quit the league, Kyle has been rebuilding through prospect trades and pickups, so it makes sense to get a guy at least interesting.

The second trade actually does do quite a bit to balance this in my eyes for Kyle.¬† Getting Jesus Aguilar for basically free seems like a nice gamble.¬† Aguilar was borderline elite last year and through struggles and playing time has been an afterthought.¬† It’s not a bad decision to keep him on your bench to see if he gets traded or hot (and starts games) for the price of nothing.¬† Aguilar is a potential keeper, whereas Miguel (Cabrera to be clear) has no potential keepability. For Ferns, he was in a roster crunch. I’ve been there, so I get it. Better to get something than nothing.

This was kind of too many words to talk about Miguel Amaya and Jesus Aguilar today, but I’m at work and had nothing better to do.¬† However we spend Memorial Day, let us all remember the great trades over the years in Dynasty Grinders history. Kyle may have gotten Jesus Aguilar for free after Ferns got Miguel Cabrera for free, but free players has been an institution in Dynasty Grinders since 2016 as well as trading Miguel Cabrera

Let us take a stroll back down memorial lane 3 years ago when Ferns once again acquired Miguel Cabrera.

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Gray, Sonny
Ruiz, Rio
Zunino, Mike
2017 Draft Pick, Round 3 (The Foundation)
Tropeano, Nick
Ruiz, Carlos
Lee, Zach
Cabrera, Miguel

Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Bellinger, Cody
Presley, Alex
Phillips, Brett
2017 Draft Pick, Round 1 (Preseason Double Stuffs)
Happ, Ian
Soler, Jorge

 

Have a great Memorial Day.

IT’S BASEBALL SEASON

 

 

Trade: The Process | Trumpa Loompas

The Process trades away
Herrera, Od√ļbel $9

Trumpa Loompas trades away
Long, Shed (minors)

Andrew’s thoughts: OK everyone, shut up and look at me.

Welcome to another Dynasty Grinders trade review. This trade has two players in it. One is decent, one is not. People acquired them and they are in this trade now. I believe that after this review is over, this trade will be forgotten. Why I am even reviewing this trade is beyond me.

I also think it’s pointless for a human to review these trades when they can just log into Fantrax and do them.

Anyway, please do not misinterpret the fact that I am reviewing this trade as genuine interest in this trade and attempt to discuss it with me further. End of review.

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

I like this trade more for the Trumpas and maybe even the Loompas. Odublel isn’t some game changing piece, but a useful CF player who will get a lot of PAs. He’s also cheap to keep. Shed long seems fine, but not on the Hustle Media Top 100 list. I think I’ve heard he’s probably a utility guy.  Not a big loss, but rather have the affordable major leaguer.  If you’re high on this particular prospect, than the trade makes a lot of sense for The Process, which has lost Trust.

Trade(s; Bundled for your convenience): Trust the Process | TBD/Organized Chaos

TBD¬†trades away 1B Ryan Zimmerman ($7) Trust the Process¬†trades away SP Dean Kremer Andrew’s Thoughts: As of this morning Trust the Process has changed their team name to something different (sad and disappointing), which tells you just about all you need to know about “The Process.” Anyway… I remember last off-season, I had Ryan Zimmerman on my roster coming off a .387 wOBA season and 14 other owners told me he was a worthless turd. The one owner that didn’t was Joe from TBD. That Joe, I tell ya, he’s a smart cookie, as evidenced by locking up two seasons (so far!) of elite JD Martinez on someone else’s dime. Fast forward to today, and I’m pumped to see Abandon the Process adding a player that 14 people thought sucked a year ago in exchange for An Orioles Pitching Prospect‚ĄĘ (they’re all the same, no need for names). Zimmerman was good last year too, but also injured yet again. The projections like him. I’d rather have Zimmerman for 300 plate appearances before he hits the DL than¬†An Orioles Pitching Prospect‚ĄĘ and it isn’t even close. Fun side note: Ryan Zimmerman has won back-to-back Dynasty Grinders League Championships. He won for me in 2017 and TBD in 2018. That streak will end in 2019, obviously, but still, a cool footnote.   Hustle’s Toxic $0.02: I really like this trade for the Process.¬† It’s rare I strongly prefer the other side of a TBD deal.¬† Locking up a decent 1b hitter who will only cost $7 in 2018 seems wise. Who cares if he only plays half a season? Who cares if he tears his ACL in the first month? You only spent 7 bucks on him and only gave up the Orioles 4th best pitching prospect when the trade would have been just as low risk had Ferns traded their best one. For the now Josh led TBD squad, I get what he’s trying to do. Add a prospect he likes for a guy he was going to cut.¬† By no means is this a franchise shattering trade, or a trade that will come back in the slightest to haunt them… It just helps out The Process more with almost no downside. In the end, there’s an excellent chance Kremer gets cut and Zimmerman spends the bulk of the season on the DL.
Organized Chaos¬†trades away RF Nick Markakis ($4) Trust the Process¬†trades away SP Frankie Montas ($5) Andrew’s Thoughts: Oh man, I’m pumped and flattered. The Process has reunited Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Markakis from the 2017 Dynasty Grinders League Champion and World Points Champion of the World Capital City Incomee. What a time to be alive. You know what they say: imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. I am truly beside myself this morning. After two years of campaigning that Markakis was a valuable asset in our league, he went above and beyond to prove me right in 2018. Here are his monthly wOBAs for the first four months of the season: .379, .394, .341, .362. Wow! That’s good. Sadly, he closed out the year with marks of .294 and .297. Womp womp. Regardless, I’d rather have Markakis than Montas, I think. Is Montas even going to be in the rotation? To be clear, pitching depth is valuable. But if he’s a reliever, he’s worthless. I think personal favoritism toward Markakis aside, this is probably a coin flip trade. And I get “selling high” on Markakis if you could, but this isn’t it. Markakis represents a massive lineup upgrade for Question the Process. And I’m not even referring to those monster wOBA months. If Markakis can limp along to a .294 or .297 wOBA all year, he’d still be a huge upgrade over having Lewis Brinson in the lineup.   Hustle’s Toxic $0.02:¬† I’m not sure how to feel about this trade. Markakis is potentially a serviceable replacement OF and Montas is¬† a bad cheap pitcher (under $10 though, Hustle Rule (TM) ). I think if you’re counting on either to be a major contributor on your team in 2019, you should be prepared for disappointment. As a depth piece, both are fine. Assuming Montas is in the rotation and Markakis is a lineup regular, they are both fine to roster.¬† Assuming those two things, they probably go for more in auction than their keeper price, but not much more.¬† The auction projects to be barren, but with the recent trade activity, it seems like less cash will be taken into it so maybe prices will be a little better than last year Ferns is trying to assemble Bailey’s team from 2 years ago, Bailey is trying to assemble my team from 2 years ago, and in reviewing this shitty trade, I’m just trying to stay as toxic I was 2 years ago.

The Dynasty Grinders New Deal…

As discussed in the Slack Channel and Podcast, there is definitely room to improve the overall quality of life in the league. The following proposed rule changes are intended to improve overall competitiveness, bring clarity to confusing rules, and speed up certain aspects of our game that should make playing much more fun.

The simple stuff…

Raising the greed money per team to $2 to spread among each of their 15 peers’ teams. You do have to select two different players who are not cost controlled to receive an extra one dollar raise. Cost controlled players would remain unaffected. However, top 30 players would no longer be a protected class.

This would go into effect after the 2019 season.

I believe the top 30 rule hasn’t been as useful or necessary as originally thought. Inflating everyone’s budget another $15 via the greed rule, theoretically adds another $30 player to the auction pool each year. This helps make the auction draft great again (MADGA), as potentially 15-20 more starters hit the pool each year.

There has been ample discussion on how to handle the current situation where teams have been selling off significant amounts of auction budget in exchange for prospects. I believe that nobody can really determine if it is broken. There is definitely argument for both sides of this logic. However, we believe after much discussion, that its not in our best interest to limit teams’ potential to make these kinds of deals. It is also not in the league’s best interest to allow teams to carry from year to year a budget that clearly overshadows the rest of the league.

The proposal: Adjusting the language written in the current rule regarding the final cut day:

  • Currently: On Final Cut Day, every team needs to cut players down to their Team budget. You must leave $1 of Team Budget remaining per each empty major league roster spot.
  • Proposal: On Final Cut Day, every team needs to cut down to a total team salary of $500 or less. You must leave $1 of Team Budget remaining per each empty major league roster spot.

The term “Team Budget” refers to your team’s individual budget for a season that started at $500 +/- whatever trades you made that incorporated budget.

Essentially, if you have acquired additional auction budget, you may take any surplus budget with you to auction, but will not be able to use it pre-auction to keep additional players already on your roster.

All trades made between the Final Cut Day and Auction that put a team over the threshold for this rule will be voided and reversed.

The rational here starts with MADGA and helps keep some kind of competitive balance. Teams can still swap budget and make trades, but Final Cut Day does impose limits of sorts.

The paradigm shift…

Eliminating long relief appearances. There is big time potential in the immediate future for long relief appearances to become not only more common, but also more predictable as provided by the Ryan Yarbrough/Tampa Bay Rays example. Due to a lack of flexibility with how we can handle these kinds of scenarios, where the majority (if not all) of the player’s fantasy value stems from circumventing our Games Started limit, the proposed solution is to eliminate all relief appearances that are 10 outs or more (3.1 IP). The player would be moved from that active roster to the bench retroactively by a commissioner. The newest solution is to count all appearances that last ten outs or more and take place in the first nine innings of any baseball game, count as one of your seven starts for the week.

This would go into effect for the 2019 season.

It is not ideal that the commissioner needs to be hands on in these cases, but the running theory is that players like Yarbrough become useless less useful on your roster because they will not often score points for you. So they end up taking a roster spot for nothing little return. Thus meaning that only the rare unicorn relief appearances need to be adjusted to count as starts which we believe will be few and far in between. This simply solves an exploit, without much damage to anything else.

The worst system in Dynasty Grinders… gone!

It is no secret that the cost controlled system in Dynasty Grinders is confusing. A series of rules and hard caps were created when the league began to make things simple and after three seasons, there’s nothing simple about it. Currently the following things are true about the cost controlled system:

  • Prospects are valuable and cheaper.
  • We don’t know their exact value until mid- to late-offseason.
  • Its not easy to predict what their value is going to be in-season due to basing their cost on future projections.
  • Its incredibly frustrating to have a player start their cost controlled status because of a cup of coffee stint in MLB.

The first bullet point is fine and in the spirit of dynasty leagues, it makes sense to keep. The other three make sense to eliminate. To do so, the idea is to base the player’s cost controlled raises on their previous season’s performance. This means that after Fantrax rolls over the league, we would be able to update all player salaries (short of the greed vote) immediately and teams can better budget around those changes, which should open up the entire off-season to activity. Subsequently, we can apply greed much earlier in the off-season to allow even more time to plan for the following season.

In almost all cases this causes these cost controlled players will receive raises similar to or less than they would have in the old system. This means that prospects are still valuable and cheaper to keep. But knowing how they’re performing in the year before you can gauge within a few dollars of what they’re likely going to cost the next season. We will also know after the season ends (even before the World Series ends!) exactly what they will cost. In some cases, where players don’t meet the the minimum threshold, they don’t have their “clocks” begin. Easier and more fun.

Currently players follow this system:

  • The year they break into the majors they are $0.
  • The next season they are automatically $1 if they have 1 PA or 0.1 IP.
  • In their 3rd year you pay 20% of their FanGraphs ZIPS auction calculator value.
  • 4th year you pay 40%
  • 5th year you pay 60%
  • 6th year you pay 80% and then they graduate, become eligible for greed, etc.

The redesign of the system will base the players “bonus” on their performance. All players who finish the season with positive point totals will be placed on a scale. Minor leaguers who finish the season below the 60th percentile will not reach cost controlled status. All minor leaguers who finish above the 60th percentile will cost $1 in the following season.

Cost controlled players who finish below the 90th percentile will get the minimum $2 raise each season.

From there cost controlled players could get raises higher than $2 based if they finish above the following thresholds:

  • 90th percentile: $4 raise
  • 93rd percentile: $6 raise
  • 95th percentile: $8 raise
  • 97th percentile: $10 raise
  • 98th percentile: $13 raise
  • 99th percentile: $16 raise

For some context on what those limits were in 2018: players who scored less than 256 points did not hit the 60th percentile so they would remain minor leaguers. This ensures that players who get promoted in September or otherwise receive “cup of coffee” promotions do not see their clocks start.

Cost controlled players who finish below the 90th percentile (794 points in 2018) get the standard $2 raise.

Above that 93rd was 867 points, 95th was 932 points, 97th was 1044 points, 98th was 1099 points and 99th was 1197 points.

That’s a lot of numbers and data is going to be provided to show how that affects our league.

In keeping with our existing rule, players who are picked up from free agency and debut in that same season are not eligible for cost control status and will be subject to free agent raise rules.

This achieves all of the goals that we set out to do. We’re currently waiting for FanGraphs to bail us out each year to stick to how the system was designed. That puts us at their mercy and from the first two seasons, it did not do a great or consistent job anyway. Getting away from that, allows a lot more flexibility and the ease of planning for the future sooner. I think these are all good things.

The forgotten topic…

Simply, players who were picked up as free agents during the year who were kept from the previous season currently have their keeper value set to $5. This should be bumped to $7 effective after the 2019 season.

Yep.

THE RESULT…

UPDATED 12/04/2018: By a final vote of 11-5 in favor of these changes, the Dynasty Grinders New Deal package of rule changes has passed.

You can view the results here.