TBD trades away
- Solak, Nick (prospect)
- May, Dustin (prospect)
- Adams, Jordyn (prospect)
- Groshans, Jordan (prospect)
- 2020 Draft Pick, Round 1 (The Process)
Who’s Your Haddy? trades away
Justin Verlander is OLD. 36 is a high number for a baseball player and fantasy owners alike. However, this deal is about finishing this year strong. TBD currently in first place, is padding their roster for a deep playoff run. It is smart, makes sense, and its for a player that clearly makes a difference.
Verlander is currently 5th in highest points scored in our league. He’s averaging nearly 42 points a start. In a two start week, he can bury your opponent. He didn’t help Haddy enough, as the rest of your roster still matters, but for TBD’s duo, the rest of their roster was fine before they added Verlander.
For TBD making this trade is easy. Trading some of tomorrow’s lottery tickets for an actual top end upgrade for today is something you do every day. Prospects are easy to come by, teams need them, they’re nice to have, but this is the best way (in my humble opinion) to use prospects. To push to win. Waiting on them to mature is fine, you hope they make crazy weird jumps to relevance that makes you feel good and seem like a genius. But, none of us really know.
For Haddy, well if you’re out, these kinds of deals make sense. Verlander isn’t helping you win this year, winning is no longer a top concern. Verlander would help you win next year, however he is older, and he’s a pitcher and they break. If I’m Haddy I’m pretty happy with this return. He’s getting two top 100 prospects, May who’s a top 20, plus two other prospects who are better than interesting.
The two Jordan’s (Jordyn?) were first round top 20 picks in the MLB 2018 draft. Both grade out as 45+ FV guys with hit tools being their ticket. Betting on those guys is a good idea.
Dustin May (60FV) just got called up to AAA and will be tested by the new home run ball. So far in 2019 he has looked good and projects to be a middle of the rotation, perhaps potentially a top end starter.
Nick Solak (50FV) is also in AAA for the Rays/Expos and he walks and hits for power. He’s the classic profile I like to target for my hitters in these kinds of leagues. For me he looks like a high floor hitter, with a ceiling that potentially could be very sexy.
I like what Haddy got back, but he’ll miss Verlander next year when he’s going to push to get back into the playoffs again. TBD will have forgotten who these prospects are this time next year. They have shown time and time again their ability to reload the system cost effectively. Verlander doesn’t guarantee a championship, but it makes it harder for them to lose it.
Okay, so up front: Jordan’s already written his review, but I’m not going to read it first. So if I repeat anything he said, sorry.
In short: I love this for TBD and don’t understand it at all for Haddy. I really don’t.
Here’s the thing about this league, in my opinion: we’re in year four and there has, to my recollection, never been an “ace” starting pitcher at auction. Let me think. I think Luis Severino was in our second year, but he was just a random former prospect then. And are we confident he’s an “ace” currently? I’m sure not. I guess Zach Greinke, Madison Bumgarner, and David Price were the year before last. But is Price an “ace”? I think you want him as your SP2 or SP3, not SP1. Is Bumgarner an ace? I’d debate that, though he’s obviously good. Greinke’s an ace. So okay, in four years, one proven, surefire ace SP has made it to auction, and I think at the time there were looming questions about him. That’s the thing. These top tier starters do not hit auction. They don’t. Verlander won’t. TBD is 100% keeping him unless he suffers an injury, or I guess trading him.
I guess also, when I say “ace,” it’s kind of deceiving because it makes you think pitcher. I’m sort of thinking as just overall, elite player. Mike Trout doesn’t get to auction. Cody Bellinger doesn’t. Christian Yelich doesn’t. Freddie Freeman doesn’t. The only way you get these guys is by trading for them or by stumbling upon one.
Here’s what happens, time and time again: all the stud pitchers get sold for prospects because their salary or age is so terrifying. Oh no, Verlander is 36 and my goal is to build a dynasty that dominates for eight years in a row, gotta dump him. Then there’s 6-8 teams with $200+ of cap space to spend on the ace they assume will get cut, but instead, those 6-8 teams get to fight over Chris Archer or Dallas Keuchel or Buster Posey whoever. One of each of that tier of player gets dispersed to those 6-8 teams, but because those 6-8 teams gutted themselves to get a low salary, that one player doesn’t change anything. And also half those players bust because they were risky to begun with, thus being sent back to auction. Rinse and repeat. The year we had Greinke, Bumgarner, Price, and oh yeah, Shohei Ohtani, guess what? Four separate teams totaling $218 in salary. So if you’ve rebuilt down to $250 of cash to spend, you better: (a) hope there are four players like that at auction, (b) win two or three, if not all four, and (c) then hope the player actually pans out to be an impact player. Living the auction dream is scary shit.
I want very badly to know what the market was for a $50, starting at $52 to keep, Justin Verlander. At worst, he gets $15 of greed and costs $67. THAT. IS. NOTHING. He’s the 5th overall scorer right now, this year. He finished third last year. He finished 19th the year before and third a year earlier. I get that pitchers are fragile, old pitchers especially, but this dude will impact your team more than almost any other player. I continue to not understand why a guy like this is considered such a bad risk but a pitching prospect isn’t. JV’s a 99th percentile performer and he fetched… two good prospects (May, Groshans), a couple prospects that teams like HLR, TBD, and Long Ball scoop off waivers with regularity, and a draft pick. That’s it? I’m a dipshit for not submitting offers. Shame on me. I didn’t think I had the pieces. But I want to know if any “rebuilders” inquired here. Haddy? Did you get offers from the teams that have gutted their rosters down to $200? Why didn’t you engage with me on Trevor Story (was it the Matt Chapman thing, where cost control is only cool until the player is a stud, then it’s not sexy anymore) for Verlander? WHYYYYYY?!
I like Dustin May and all, but TINSTAAPP. I like Jordan Groshans too, but optimistically, he’s not scoring fantasy points until 2021. Maybe Nick Solak becomes Jeff McNeil or something, which is helpful but lacking real impact. A first round pick? What freakin’ ever.
If I’m Haddy, I’d rather just keep Verlander and run it back in 2020 and maybe 2021 and maybe even 2022, especially after already dumping Chris Sale. Cut freakin’ Jose Abreu‘s $70 salary and just keep Verlander. Or trade Abreu for half this same package. Easy. Sure, maybe you flip all the ones you just got for this type of guy later, but maybe not. Again, the list of guys who produce like JV is super slim. Bird in hand, etc. I’m not taking this package for Scherzer. I doubt HLR’s taking it for Arenado. Dan’s not taking it for Yelich or Gerrit Cole. Maybe May becomes Syndergaard 2.0, but cost controlled, and I look foolish. Except not really, because even if that happens, that’s not even remotely the most likely outcome. That’s dumb luck. If he ever, at any point, becomes Verlander right now, you basically hit the lottery. I’ll just leave this here: