Trade: JobuNeedsARefill | The Process

The Process trades away
RF Nick Markakis ($6)

JobuNeedsARefill trades away
SP Danny Salazar ($11)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

This is the prototypical “seems fine” trade.

Jobu adds a cheap bench hitter at the expense of a broken pitcher that he was probably going to cut anyway. Meanwhile, The Process punts a cheap bench hitter that he was probably going to cut for the right to hold onto a free agent pitcher that might sign somewhere interesting and show signs of health. It wouldn’t surprise me if both players end up at auction come March, but for now, this just seems like two teams moving on from guys they definitely don’t want to keep for guys that maybe, possibly, depending how the rest of the offseason goes, could be kept.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

Some people would say “Get a life, and do some community service” rather than waste your time on a meaningless trade like this. I am not one of those people. Life is precious, but also life expectancy is almost 80 years in the United States. Thats a lot of time. You need stuff to fill in the gaps. Talking about Markakis for Danny Salazar for 5 minutes? That’s the real trade here.¬† Was the time spent hashing this trade worth it in the grand spectrum of one’s lifetime? Is this review worth that time?¬† These are the true difficult questions we need to ask ourselves, and sometimes the answers are difficult.

Ultimately, I like this trade for BOTH teams because they spent some time together, talked some baseball, and exchanged ideas to possibly (even though extremely unlikely) improve their Dynasty Grinder franchises for 2020.  Good on you guys.

Trade: JobuNeedsARefill | Capital City Income

Capital City Ironmen trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Capital City Ironmen)
Stroman, Marcus ($49)

JobuNeedsARefill trades away
Neidert, Nick ($0 prospect)
Hayes, Ke’Bryan ($0 prospect)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (TBD)

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $.02

After months (seemingly) of everyone getting Marcus Stroman offers, he was finally traded.¬† $49 strikes me as a high salary for him. That being said, he probably goes close to this in auction, maybe slightly more depending on who else is in auction? Will there be a better pitcher in auction than Samardzja/Lester/Archer? Kershaw?¬† Stroman had a sparkling 3.22 ERA last year but his FIP/XFIP suggest he was pitcher closer to a 4 ERA pitcher. The K/9 was just under 8, which is an improvement from 2018. I’m not sure Stroman and his contract would be a guy I’d target, but I also don’t hate it.¬† Clark’s rotation got deeper and behind Flaherty, he know has Sandy Alcantara, Stroman, Wood, Houser , Mahle and Bundy, amongst a few others. Getting Stroman for Clark is at the very least a guy he can throw out for just about every start, and he needed it.

Bailey picks up a shitpick upgrade, congrats. He also made his farm stronger, a rarity for the Crapitol Shittys. KeBryan Hayes is now his #1 prospect and Nick Neidert is probably somewhere in the top 5, maybe even #2. It’s a Dynasty League after all, and you can’t always be trading for good older players and expect to be competitive forever.

I really like going after these guys.¬† Hayes was a highly regarded prospect last year and some shine wore off, but he was a beast in the 2nd half after injury, so I this was a great buy low prospect. I hate doing the “Who will be next year’s ____” type question, because usually the type of season that prompts that question is usually in reference to something that doesn’t happen too often. That being said, Nick Neidert sure seems like a possibility for next year’s Gallen.¬† A guy who looks clearly like a starter, but just needed his stuff to tick up a bit, and he looked great in the AFL. So two live close to the major prospects for a $49 Stroman seems like a great deal, especially since I assume Bailey couldn’t keep him.

Based on liking the two prospects here, I think I’d give the edge to Bailey here.¬† I think there were better less salaries pitchers on the tradeblock that could have potentially been obtained without Hayes, but maybe not.¬† I still think overall this made Clark’s team better for 2020, and if Stroman has a similar season then he might not regret any of what he gave up.

 

 

 

Trade: TBD | The Process

TBD trades away

The Process trades away

  • 1B Christian Walker ($7)
  • 2B/SS Terrin Vavra

    BAILEY’S (TOXIC?!) THOUGHTS

    Okay, up front, let me say that I completely understand the following: TBD is way over the salary cap and cuts need to be made or discounts need to be taken in trade; Anthony Rizzo is super expensive; Christian Walker is super cheap and only posted 168.1 fewer points than Rizzo which, given salaries, makes Walker a super attractive value alternative; Terrin Vavra has sweet, sweet cost control. This trade based on all of these facts is fine. This is fine. IT IS FINE, GUYS.

But like… this is all you get for Anthony Rizzo? Dude has had over 1,000 points in all but one season (he had 972 in 2018) since 2014 (so his success is juiced baseball-proof) and he fetches… a cheaper, lesser 1Bman and a not even top-200 prospect at this moment in time? I know who Terrin Vavra is, I get that he’s a prospect that could be a monster a year from now, whatever. This could also be the last time you ever seeBut today he’s… not been on any offseason list I’ve seen. I also get that he’s the secondary piece here but I still feel uncomfortable with seeing a perennial 1,000 point player traded for only two pieces, one of which is a 22-year-old in A-ball that the industry isn’t counting among the league’s 200 best at this moment in time.

In 2019, 56 players scored 1,000 points. In 2018, that number was 42. So to be clear, a guy not even counted among the top 150 or 200 prospects (and uh, Walker) is worth one of the top 40-50 actual scorers in the game, because salary. Fun, fun stuff.

This reeks of TBD rushing to shed budget space and hopping on the first players they liked offered up, which sadly is maybe just where we are as a league now. Maybe they love Walker, maybe they love Vavra. That’s fine. I like both guys too, although I specifically remember Organized Chaos relentlessly offering Walker to me — and everyone else — for weeks straight until finally, mercifully, Ferns accepted one of those deals. Which is funny in retrospect. Because now suddenly he’s super valuable? Anyway…

There are five or six teams with like $250 (of not real money, to be clear) to spend and half those teams haven’t really even checked in yet. Did they know Rizzo was available? Were they interested? Dear god, tell me those teams didn’t say they had no interest in a 1,000 point player and instead want to just wallow in the standings another year bEcAuSe SaLaRy aNd VaLuE (this is totally what happened). And actually, the “I don’t want them, you’re over cap and need to cut so I’ll wait for auction” is a defensible stance for those teams, except players like that never hit auction. They’re given away in trades like these. So you really can’t afford to just shun big time points scorers because of their salary or you’ll simply never have one and if you’re not trying to amass points, why are you here?

It’s a fine DG 2019 trade, it really is. Rizzo’s been hit by so many pitches, who knows, maybe the cliff finds him this year and Walker outscores him. I don’t think that’d change my point. It just, again, doesn’t feel like a “fantasy baseball trade” to me. I recently traded a pointless 5th round draft pick for Clayton Kershaw. Does that not strike anyone as symptomatic? This isn’t MLB where you’re trading millions of real dollars and contractual seasons. It’s just kinda like, sometimes, I don’t know what game we’re actually playing. The trade is fine given all the context, and maybe I’m dumb for trying to re-frame the context, I just feel like the context is unhealthy at this point.

 

Hustle’s TOXIC $.02

Jeeze, those sound like the words of a man whose team is about to lose the World Series. Bailey, please call me tonight if you need to talk. As a veteran fan of a team who just lost BACK TO BACK WORLD SERIES OF THE WORLD, I know that feel.

Anyway this trade…. SEEMS FINE TM. I agree that some of these teams with $200 or so budget not jumping on the Rizzo train is one of the more concerning aspects of this trade.¬† TBD was way over budget and chose who¬† they wanted to cut, and got a useful 1b and a prospect that they something in. Seems fine rather than cutting him for nothing. Seems way better than a 5th rounder for Kershaw.¬† Anyway, I also talked to Josh and he says he did shop Rizzo around to other teams. TBD doesn’t strike me as the team to not do their due diligence, so I believe that this was probably their best deal or close to it.

After years of driving a tank in Dynasty Grinders, Ferns has made a 2017 Baileyesque move and bought an expensive “older” player to finally compete. There’s a post somewhere where Bailey actually wrote/bragged about how he went from Tanker to Champion. Ferns certainly has the roster to compete and that’s his plan. But with only tank driving on his DG resume, is he suited for a role as a competitor in this league? Trades like this tend to say so.

These types of trades are bound to happen in a league that mimics a lot of how MLB operates. Gerrit Cole got traded for a terrible prospect haul by the Pirates, so did JD Martinez, oh wait that was another league, in MLB JD Martinez was literally traded for nothing/Dawell Lugo.¬† We play in a salary cap league, and sometimes you have a very good team like TBD does, and have to cut cap. They did that. I also don’t think Ferns paid nothing for this either, after greed he’s nearly going to pay 20% of his budget on last years 7th best 1bman. Ferns also gave away a decent 1b in Walker and an OK prospect. I guess I just don’t see this as a free acquisition.

Good trade for both teams guys!

Trade: Marshall Law | Organized Chaos

Marshall Law trades away

  • SS Nico Hoerner ($0 prospect)
  • 2022 4th Round Pick

Organized Chaos trades away

  • 2B Cavan Biggio ($1 cost controlled)
  • 2021 3rd Round Pick

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

Let’s get to the exciting part of this trade, the draft picks. I will say that this is the sort of trade that if you need a slightly better shitpick in a different year to make it “work” for you, then you shouldn’t do it.¬† Conversely if someone is asking you for a slightly better shitpick in a 1:1 trade, you should probably tell them no, unless you just love the trade and want it to happen right away.

This trade seems fine to me.¬† Biggio is in the majors and scoring points right now, so I think preferring him makes the most logical sense, which is why the draft pick confuses me here. That being said, Biggio also has strikeout issues and isn’t a lock to produce at the same level he did.¬† Nico Hoerner is a few years younger has decent enough upside to perhaps be even better than Biggio.¬† Added bonus, Hoerner was good enough to debut already and maintain his $0 cost control status. Still though, I’d prefer Biggio here, but I don’t feel so great about his future that I think risking him for a prospect I like more seems crazy.¬† I don’t know if Hoerner would be that guy for me, but if he is for Swinson I get it.

Prospects are fun.¬† Elton once ranked all the farms in Dynasty Grinders a few years ago and rated mine the best, and in that moment, I felt pretty good. Thank you Elton.¬† Even though Bailey surely has a stronger “not caring about prospects” stance than I do, I simply refuse to hate on someone believing in the abilities of a player that they view as potentially SPECIAL.

FAAB Pick Up of the Month: July 2019

Congratulations are in order!

The Commissioners Office of Dynasty Grinders is pleased to announce the FAAB Pick Up of the Month for July 2019: Brandon Crawford of the San Francisco Giants!

Crawford, who went for $4 of otherwise worthless FAAB, amassed an astounding 56.3 points in a single day. It was a thin schedule day, making this streaming effort all the more amazing. Wow. Stunning. Congratulations to Mr. Crawford!

When pressed for the details behind this FAAB addition, Capital City Ironmen general manager Andrew Bailey said, “I can’t take all the credit. I couldn’t have done it without my spreadsheet. I have a complicated algorithm that really favors players in doubleheaders at Coors Field, especially when they have the platoon advantage against terrible pitchers.”

Travis d’Arnaud, who put up 49 points in a single game, was named the runner-up for this award. Better luck next month, Mr. d’Arnaud, and congratulations to Josh Leavitt and Long Ball to LF for having the month’s second best FAAB pick-up. ūü§∑‚Äć‚ôāÔłŹ

Prospects Lucius Fox, who was picked up for $1 on July 13 by The Foundation, and Parker Meadows, scooped up by Trust the Process for $0 on July 12, failed to receive any votes for this coveted award. Both players are turds.

Trade: The Foundation | Who’s Your Haddy?

The Foundation trades away

  • 2020¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†4 (Who’s Your Haddy?)
  • Montas, Frankie $5
  • Waters, Drew (prospect)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Sale, Chris $94

Jordan’s Thoughts

I mean its Chris Sale. He used April for Spring Training, and now he’s a top 5 pitcher again. Frankie Montas got caught doping, he won’t pitch again this year, at least in a Dynasty Grinders season window. For $5, based on his performance gain, Montas is a huge piece of this trade. He’s hard to lose. But, anytime with PEDs, there’s just a ton of questions that cloud the value.

Perhaps he comes back next season and he’s a top 10 pitcher at essentially no cost. Perhaps he comes back and he’s average. Who knows. He had value, but no longer had value to me for this year where I’m trying to win. Easy for me to move away from.

Being in the 6th spot in a 6 team playoff format, this kind of trade helps me hang on. Once you’re in the playoffs, in our head to head format, pitchers like Chris Sale can swing a playoff week for you. Who knows? He could help me make a run.

For Haddy’s, selling Sale makes enough sense. I’m guessing when he shopped Sale around he was hoping for a stronger market. Getting back Montas is fine. Drew Waters is a FV55 center fielder who in double-A is crushing the ball. His 152 wRC+ over 80 games trends well for the 20-year-old. Waters has been climbing prospect charts for a while now and shows no real signs of slowing down.

Overall, I love this trade for myself. Losing Montas and Waters is easily worth the gamble to hold on and solidify myself for a playoff run. Even if I miss the playoffs, Sale is keepable at whatever price tag. He’s just that consistently good.

BAILEY’s Thoughts

A lot of what I wrote about the Verlander trade applies here and I don’t want to go heavy negative again twice.

So having said that, predictably, yes, I like this for Jordan. When this deal first went down, I sort of assumed it’d be tough for Jordan to keep Chris Sale at $99 — but he’s probably gonna cost around $110 when all is said and done — but that’s not true. Andrew McCutchen coming off injury at $54 is an easy cut. Jose Quintana, who went for an inflated auction lack-of-pitching price and will be $60, is an easy cut. That right there is $114, which is Sale’s max value. Anyone in their right mind is trading McCutchen/Quintana for Sale, so sure. Obviously that doesn’t include raises, greed, or cost control arbitration, but it’s close enough to where Jordan can move around lesser, meaningless pieces and make it work. Like, you don’t keep a $28 Yasiel Puig if it means losing Sale. Ditto a $68 Corey Seager. So yeah, great deal for 2019 Jordan and beyond.

For Haddy, I’ll stay positive: I love Drew Waters. I picked him up last year and think he’s going to be really good. The Braves future outfield looks stacked. The 4th round pick is… literally nothing. I can’t be positive there.

The best part of this trade is Frankie Montas, who will be $7 pre-greed and while he’s risky, at least we’ve seen flashes of excellence at the major league level. Montas is the type of piece missing from so many of these rebuild deals, where teams seem hell bent on picks and prospects and blind to actual major league talent.

This year Montas pitched to a brilliant 2.90 FIP and 3.38 xFIP over 90 innings. And contrary to what Jordan wrote, I don’t feel like the PEDs are a big red flag over his performance. He added a splitter to his repertoire this year, giving him a fourth pitch, and it worked out great for him. PEDs won’t change that. In fact, for Haddy, the suspension is pretty great. He just gets to sit and rest his arm for three months. Yay.

To me, at 202 career IP and now that he’s got this new pitch, Montas is essentially still a prospect. He’s only 26 and pitchers take time. But unlike any other pitching prospect on a Top 100 list, he’s done stuff at the majors. There’s a track record here. He’s not a total dart throw. So for Haddy, I like the main piece coming back being one of immediate, somewhat proven fantasy relevance.

Trade: TBD | Who’s Your Haddy?

TBD trades away

  • Solak, Nick (prospect)
  • May, Dustin (prospect)
  • Adams, Jordyn (prospect)
  • Groshans, Jordan (prospect)
  • 2020¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†1 (The Process)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Verlander, Justin $50

Jordan’s Thoughts

Justin Verlander is OLD. 36 is a high number for a baseball player and fantasy owners alike. However, this deal is about finishing this year strong. TBD currently in first place, is padding their roster for a deep playoff run. It is smart, makes sense, and its for a player that clearly makes a difference.

Verlander is currently 5th in highest points scored in our league. He’s averaging nearly 42 points a start. In a two start week, he can bury your opponent. He didn’t help Haddy enough, as the rest of your roster still matters, but for TBD’s duo, the rest of their roster was fine before they added Verlander.

For TBD making this trade is easy. Trading some of tomorrow’s lottery tickets for an actual top end upgrade for today is something you do every day. Prospects are easy to come by, teams need them, they’re nice to have, but this is the best way (in my humble opinion) to use prospects. To push to win. Waiting on them to mature is fine, you hope they make crazy weird jumps to relevance that makes you feel good and seem like a genius. But, none of us really know.

For Haddy, well if you’re out, these kinds of deals make sense. Verlander isn’t helping you win this year, winning is no longer a top concern. Verlander would help you win next year, however he is older, and he’s a pitcher and they break. If I’m Haddy I’m pretty happy with this return. He’s getting two top 100 prospects, May who’s a top 20, plus two other prospects who are better than interesting.

The two Jordan’s (Jordyn?) were first round top 20 picks in the MLB 2018 draft. Both grade out as 45+ FV guys with hit tools being their ticket. Betting on those guys is a good idea.

Dustin May (60FV) just got called up to AAA and will be tested by the new home run ball. So far in 2019 he has looked good and projects to be a middle of the rotation, perhaps potentially a top end starter.

Nick Solak (50FV) is also in AAA for the Rays/Expos and he walks and hits for power. He’s the classic profile I like to target for my hitters in these kinds of leagues. For me he looks like a high floor hitter, with a ceiling that potentially could be very sexy.

I like what Haddy got back, but he’ll miss Verlander next year when he’s going to push to get back into the playoffs again. TBD will have forgotten who these prospects are this time next year. They have shown time and time again their ability to reload the system cost effectively. Verlander doesn’t guarantee a championship, but it makes it harder for them to lose it.

Bailey’s Thoughts

Okay, so up front: Jordan’s already written his review, but I’m not going to read it first. So if I repeat anything he said, sorry.

In short: I love this for TBD and don’t understand it at all for Haddy. I really don’t.

Here’s the thing about this league, in my opinion: we’re in year four and there has, to my recollection, never been an “ace” starting pitcher at auction. Let me think. I think Luis Severino was in our second year, but he was just a random former prospect then. And are we confident he’s an “ace” currently? I’m sure not. I guess Zach Greinke, Madison Bumgarner, and David Price were the year before last. But is Price an “ace”? I think you want him as your SP2 or SP3, not SP1. Is Bumgarner an ace? I’d debate that, though he’s obviously good. Greinke’s an ace. So okay, in four years, one proven, surefire ace SP has made it to auction, and I think at the time there were looming questions about him. That’s the thing. These top tier starters do not hit auction. They don’t. Verlander won’t. TBD is 100% keeping him unless he suffers an injury, or I guess trading him.

I guess also, when I say “ace,” it’s kind of deceiving because it makes you think pitcher. I’m sort of thinking as just overall, elite player. Mike Trout doesn’t get to auction. Cody Bellinger doesn’t. Christian Yelich doesn’t. Freddie Freeman doesn’t. The only way you get these guys is by trading for them or by stumbling upon one.

Here’s what happens, time and time again: all the stud pitchers get sold for prospects because their salary or age is so terrifying. Oh no, Verlander is 36 and my goal is to build a dynasty that dominates for eight years in a row, gotta dump him. Then there’s 6-8 teams with $200+ of cap space to spend on the ace they assume will get cut, but instead, those 6-8 teams get to fight over Chris Archer or Dallas Keuchel or Buster Posey whoever. One of each of that tier of player gets dispersed to those 6-8 teams, but because those 6-8 teams gutted themselves to get a low salary, that one player doesn’t change anything. And also half those players bust because they were risky to begun with, thus being sent back to auction. Rinse and repeat. The year we had Greinke, Bumgarner, Price, and oh yeah, Shohei Ohtani, guess what? Four separate teams totaling $218 in salary. So if you’ve rebuilt down to $250 of cash to spend, you better: (a) hope there are four players like that at auction, (b) win two or three, if not all four, and (c) then hope the player actually pans out to be an impact player. Living the auction dream is scary shit.

I want very badly to know what the market was for a $50, starting at $52 to keep, Justin Verlander. At worst, he gets $15 of greed and costs $67. THAT. IS. NOTHING. He’s the 5th overall scorer right now, this year. He finished third last year. He finished 19th the year before and third a year earlier. I get that pitchers are fragile, old pitchers especially, but this dude will impact your team more than almost any other player. I continue to not understand why a guy like this is considered such a bad risk but a pitching prospect isn’t. JV’s a 99th percentile performer and he fetched… two good prospects (May, Groshans), a couple prospects that teams like HLR, TBD, and Long Ball scoop off waivers with regularity, and a draft pick. That’s it? I’m a dipshit for not submitting offers. Shame on me. I didn’t think I had the pieces. But I want to know if any “rebuilders” inquired here. Haddy? Did you get offers from the teams that have gutted their rosters down to $200? Why didn’t you engage with me on Trevor Story (was it the Matt Chapman thing, where cost control is only cool until the player is a stud, then it’s not sexy anymore) for Verlander? WHYYYYYY?!

I like Dustin May and all, but TINSTAAPP. I like Jordan Groshans too, but optimistically, he’s not scoring fantasy points until 2021. Maybe Nick Solak becomes Jeff McNeil or something, which is helpful but lacking real impact. A first round pick? What freakin’ ever.

If I’m Haddy, I’d rather just keep Verlander and run it back in 2020 and maybe 2021 and maybe even 2022, especially after already dumping Chris Sale. Cut freakin’ Jose Abreu‘s $70 salary and just keep Verlander. Or trade Abreu for half this same package. Easy. Sure, maybe you flip all the ones you just got for this type of guy later, but maybe not. Again, the list of guys who produce like JV is super slim. Bird in hand, etc. I’m not taking this package for Scherzer. I doubt HLR’s taking it for Arenado. Dan’s not taking it for Yelich or Gerrit Cole. Maybe May becomes Syndergaard 2.0, but cost controlled, and I look foolish. Except not really, because even if that happens, that’s not even remotely the most likely outcome. That’s dumb luck. If he ever, at any point, becomes Verlander right now, you basically hit the lottery. I’ll just leave this here:

Trade: The Process | Who’s Your Haddy?

The Process trades away

  • Bader, Harrison $3.04
  • Rocchio, Brayan (prospect)
  • 2021¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†2 (Who’s Your Haddy?)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Encarnaci√≥n, Edwin $50

Jordan’s Thoughts

Edwin was a great Mariner for three months hitting homers left and right. Now he is a New York Yankee on a playoff run in a easier stadium to hit homers in. He’s a huge asset and definitely a target to grab.

The Process is currently in 10th place, sitting 6-7 and matched up in a must win week 14. Adding Edwin right now makes all the sense in the world and might make the difference who knows.

Best part, in my opinion, is that Ferns here has options. Keeping Edwin at $50 isn’t outrageous. You have to spend the money,¬† he’s a quality star worth spending on. In two weeks, you can trade him again, I think a similar package in 10 days is available, perhaps the package is even better.

The draft pick has whatever value draft picks have. Brayan Rocchio is an 18-year-old short stop in the Indians system and FanGraphs rates his hit tool at a 60 FV. That’s pretty. He’s currently doing alright in low-A ball and already on the top 100 list (currently 80).

Harrison Bader being in this deal is a punt from Ferns. Haddy is clearly wondering if there’s anything there yet. Bader’s age 25 season so far has been pretty bad. .296 wOBA and 82 wRC+ shows a cold start for the 2019 season. He’s cost controlled, not expensive and last year he was pretty good. Last year his BABIP was .358, this year its .261. Bader who’s pretty quick, probably settles in most years closer to the former number. He’s walking more, striking out slightly less than last year. Things look like a huge buy low guy. But, overall the ceiling here seems pretty low. He’s a CF, that fantasy wise probably tops out in the 10-12 spot, probably more typically in the 16-20 spot. He’s nice to have, value wise, but he needs to be more like last year, less like this year.

For the Haddy’s who are selling, this deal is fine. I know he was shopped around and if this was the the best package for Edwin, sure fine. It seems light, but its not awful. I like what Ferns is doing here, even though he’s playing me this week, don’t hate what Haddy did, seems like a solid trade for both parties.

BAILEY’s Thoughts

I like this trade for both teams. I wanted Edwin myself, but one glance at my roster construction tells you I just didn’t have much need for a 1Bman. So mostly, those negotiations were my way of getting Haddy to talk to me. We chatted, it was fun, so I didn’t make a trade but still feel like a winner.

For The Process, I like the aggressiveness. Edwin is clearly an awesome hitter with a track record of mashing for the better part of a decade. Could he suddenly hit the brick wall of age and suck? Sure. But right now he’s a lock for 30+, approaching 40 homers, and even with the juiced ball, those guys don’t grow on trees. His salary is high, but Ferns has strategically spent four years whittling down his budget to nothing, so he very easily has the option to keep Edwin at $52+ next year. I’m a big believer that worrying about a player’s salary is a waste of time. Lock in the points, worry about the stupid budget stuff later. There’s not a payout for having a $200 roster. And if this is just a short term move for Ferns to try and push into the playoffs, that’s cool too. If you make the playoffs, you put your $150 buy-in back in your pocket. If you don’t, you get a fighting chance at $75 or, if you’re really bad, a shot at a high draft pick. I’d much rather make a trade and gamble that I win back $150 of actual, real life cash than sit idly by for either of the other two prizes. I don’t think the price was that high.

I like Bryan Rocchio as a prospect. He was a guy I was targeting in our minors draft. He was expendable for Ferns though but should be a nice piece for Haddy by the time his retooled team is ready to compete again in 2023. Just kidding, Haddy! You won’t be ready to compete again until 2025.

Harrison Bader and the pick, meanwhile, are pretty blah. Hader will likely get just the minimum $2 raise to $5. I think given his prospect pedigree and that he’s immune to greed, that’s keepable into 2020. No risk there. I think there’s even a decent chance that Haddy opens up center field by trading Mike Trout to TBD for whichever prospects they scooped off waivers this morning, at which point, boom!, Bader is a starting CF in Dynasty Grinders.

Trade: Senior Squids | TBD

TBD trades away

  • Marte, Noelvi (prospect)
  • White, Evan (prospect)
  • Kelenic, Jarred (prospect)
  • 2020¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†1 (TBD)

Senior Squids trades away

  • Chapman, Matt $9.03

Jordan’s thoughts: Any time you can take a top 20, possibly top 10 asset in the entire league anf turn it into a trio of Mariners prospects and a draft pick you can use to draft another, you have to do it, right?¬†¬†

No. No you don’t.

Let’s look at Matt Chapman. He’s clearly old at 26 and 2 months. Last year he was a 137 wRC+, .369 wOBA hitter. This year, half way through, he’s been a 137 wRC+, .372 wOBA player. He’s walking slightly more. Striking out slightly less. Hitting way more homers.¬†

That’s a fun guy to own. An even better guy to have in the cost controlled setting of Dynasty Grinders. He’s currently the 40th highest scoring player. There’s 11 guys currently cost controlled with more points scored. Chapman IS THE GUY that you build around. He just is.

So, the return… Jarred Kelenic (last year’s 6th overall pick in our draft, a pick Squids traded to TBD for Ryan O’Hearn ūü§Į) lit Mariners twitter on fire early on the season by destroying Single-A ball hitting a 179 wRC+ in 50 games. He got promoted and as a 19-year-young hitter, his first 20 games in High-A has been 99 wRC+. Not awful, he’s young for the league, will probably catch up. But he’s already showing that he’s not the Juan Soto/Ronald Acuna type prospect that’s going to debut at 19 in MLB. He needs time and seasoning. The hit tools are there. He’s probably a good fantasy asset down the line.

Evan White is currently 23-years-old and has been doing alright in Double-A ball for the Mariners system. Another top 100 prospects on the FanGraphs lists and projects to be an average 1Bman that our league has come to love. He has the tools and talents to be some what of an asset in the future, but at 23 in double-A, the ceiling is just lower.

Noelvi Marte is 17-years-young and in rookie ball hitting slightly above average for the level with a 113 wRC+ in 23 games played. Scouts like his hit tools, but he’s not lighting up the charts or looking anything much more than a potential slow climbing prospect. Good to have, yet typically easy to find and acquire.¬†

Now, based on my simple player review, you are probably gathering that this a slam dunk, what the fuck, how did TBD do this kind of deal. And if you assumed that, well you’re right.¬†

TBD, currently at 11-2 in the league, sitting in first place, adds a cheap fantasy star for nickels on the dollar. Chapman is the best player in this deal now. Likely the best player in this deal four years from now. Possibly (probably) the best player in this deal in 2027 as a 34 year old. Even if the prospects were better, you still do this type of deal to acquire this kind of player. 100 out of 100 times. 

Senior Squids is currently in 9th place, sitting at 6-7 on the path to mediocrity again. It sucks that things have not broken the right way and the motivation to retool/build for next season seems tempting. The problem is that the obvious plan is to build around guys like Matt Chapman, not give them away to save like $20 of budget and assume the risk of a prospect. If you want to trade an asset like Chapman, the return should be major league ready cost controlled players who are on the rise, PLUS¬†this same minor league package. If you’re not getting that…

HOLD THE ASSET.

I’m sorry, the best plan here for either team is to have Matt Chapman. If you’re concerned about some fluke and having so much stock in one player and you REALLY want to diversify the asset, you have to get more than this. If more does not exist, just hold. Don’t cave into the market that you are forcing yourself into.

Have a plan. Develop the plan. Otherwise you’re on a captainless ship, swaying back and forth in the seas heading in no clear direction based on gut calls hoping to find land. Maybe you luck out. Good luck.¬†

Return of trade reviews.

Yep, they need to happen. The league was born from it. We went soft and catered to the bullshit. If anything it gets discussion going. I’m willing to eat every single word in this post, printed out on paper (and I hate printing internet things) if the return here wins Squids or the Mariners a championship.

You’re Welcome

THE PROCESS trades:                                     

SS- Dansby Swanson                                      

SP- Tyler Skagg                                                 

1B- Pavin Smith (A+)                                      

OF- Lazaro Armenteros (A+)

ORGANIZED CHAOS trades:

 SP- Matt Strahm

  2B/SS- Addison Russell

1B- THE Christian Walker

It’s difficult to review your own trade. You obviously made the deal to get something you want and are at least satisfied with the results. I have been know, in the past,¬† to decline trade offers with the question “why would I do that?” So for this trade review we will ask a similar question, “why would¬† they do that?”

THE PROCESS – I wanted Matt Strahm. Yes, he costs $45, has been homer prone lately, and recently looked terrible against the Marlins. I still think he’s the best player in this trade, pitches better moving foward, and, with my budget room, salary isnt a big consideration for the next couple years. This deal was basically Strahm for Dansby Swanson, who I have told others that I have a thing for, with other pieces included for roster considerations. Fernando Tatis JR, and Ketel Marte have made Swanson tradeable, but lets discuss those other pieces:

Addison Russell – I have always firmly believed in Humanistic Pscychology and am a big fan of Carl Rogers, who encourgaed helpers to accept people for who they are, meet them on their level, and work through personal biases… Even after doing that Addison Russell is still a shitty person. However, I think he’s still a solid fantasy backup middle infielder, with the potential to be more than that in the long run. Thank God this is just¬† fantasy, as a social worker I feel unclean owning him.

Christian Walker-  Walker was one of the hottest players to start the 2019 season. He then slumped mightly including a 3-for-44 stretch. Hes starting to show life again, averaging 10 points per game over the last week.  His 30% K rate means he likey wont enter 2020 as part of the Process, but Im hoping to ride a couple hot streaks along the way and sit him otherwise.

ORGANIZED CHAOS:  Why would he do that? Basically,  Swinson wanted Swanson.  He also  wanted a body at SP to fill in for Strahm, who Im assuming he has soured on after throwing three mulit-homer games in a row, including that aforementioned dud against the Marlin. As several of us know, he was also VERY motivated to move Christian Walker.

Dansby Swanson – Swanson was the first selection in the 2015 MLB draft. He peaked as the #4 prospect in 2016 at MLb.com, who at that time gave his hit tool a 60 grade with average pop in his bat. He currently is SS#12 in our league and averaging 5.67 points per game. He’s only 25 years old, with a Dynasty Grinders’salary of $5.¬† I think this is what Chaos can expect from him moving foward. I again assume that Chaos is expecting¬† more, and if he’s right could come out of this deal a winner.

Tyler Skaggs – In trade talks I’ve called Skaggs a “good pitcher.” I apologize for those I lied to. I dont think Coach Swinson was necessarily looking for a good pitcher, as much as a warm body to fill a rotaton spot. That’s what he got. Skaggs can be good at times, as he was for most of last season. He is probably a league average pitcher with the propensity for getting injured .

Pavin Smith РI spent a FYPD 1st round pick on Pavin Smith. He was well regarded coming out of the 2017 MLB draft and was taken #7 by the Diamondbacks. Smith is 23 in AA, with a career line of .270/.358/.404. I dont think he makes much of an impact unless he develops power to match his strong batting eye. I lost patience with him, and dont think I will miss him. Chaos gets a guy with a good pedigree and the abilty to take a walk. 

Lazaro Armenteros- It feels like we’ve been hearing about this guy forever, but he’s only 20. Ive seen Armenteros creeping up on some top prospects lists, and have heard some good things about his power. His K rate is currently 40%, leading me to believe he also wont be missed by The Process. I assume he’s just a flyer taken by Chaos.

SO WHO WINS?

This is a couple of medicocre teams, trading medicocre pieces. I got more current useful¬† pieces, so I feel good about my return. Coach Swanson got guys he likes, so he might argue the same… The real winners, Grinders, are YOU. I promise no more daily trade offers including Christian Walker. You’re Welcome.