Rockies 1B “Trade”: Hustle Loyalty Respect | We Talk Fantasy Sports | Senior Squids

Hustle Loyalty Respect gets:
Rockies 1B Daniel Murphy ($24; priceless)

We Talk Fantasy Sports gives:
Back-up LF/1B Ian Desmond ($28)

Senior Squids has:
1B Eric Hosmer ($32)

Andrew’s thoughts: Wow, what an exciting turn of events. The race to be the Rockies’ first baseman seems to have ended, and Hustle Loyalty Respect’s Daniel Murphy is the lucky winner. Johnny Hustle be all like:

Literally overnight, Murphy’s value skyrocketed. His Steamer projection went way, way up. Check this out:

For Hustle Loyalty Respect, this is a windfall. This is easily the greatest thing that’s happened in his franchise’s illustrious history. He “traded” literally nothing to land the DAMN Rockies first baseman. Truly incredible. We’re talking unprecedented luck here. I just love this “trade” for HLR. When you can add an asset like this in exchange for nothing… just, wow.¬†

For We Talk Fantasy Sports, well, I don’t understand this “trade” at all. They are actually going to be paying Ian Desmond, back-up 1B and possible platoon LF, the only hitter to ever go to Coors Field and get significantly worse, $4 more than the actual Rockies 1B. I’m referring to Daniel Murphy of HLR, to be clear. Just as Murphy’s projection went way up overnight, Desmond’s projection went way down. He lost nearly 100 projected points and is now projected to amass as many points as someone named… *squints*… Austin Dean.¬†

But as bad as this “trade” is for WTFS, it’s even worse somehow for Senior Squids. Not only did he not get the Rockies 1B. But instead, he has Eric Hosmer at an astounding cost of $32. Yes, that’s right, Eric Hosmer. Over the last full three seasons of baseball, Hosmer ranks second among all qualified hitters with a 58.2% ground ball rate. Only — OH SHIT! — Ian Desmond has a worse ground ball rate, at 58.6%. Sure, there’s some hope for Hosmer. Why, you ask? Here’s why: Hosmer has 5,070 career plate appearances. And as we all know, power comes later in the career. In fact, every power hitter in baseball history took more than 5,000 plate appearances to learn how to hit home runs. Barry Bonds had just four home runs at the 5,070 career plate appearances mark. He went on, as we all know, to hit 758 more from there. No bull, just facts.¬†

Over the last two years, Eric Hosmer has hit 43 home runs. That’s 33 fewer than, oh… *draws name from hat*… Nelson Cruz, who by the way has hit 43 or more dingers in a single season twice. But he’s old and expensive (a whopping $8 more than Eric “Slow Roller to Short” Hosmer) though, and as we all know, we subtract points in this league based on age.¬†

So in summation, I like this trade for HLR. Any time you can get the Rockies 1B instead of Ian Desmond or Eric Hosmer, you just have to do it.

Jordan’s thoughts: I’ve never heard of the two prospects in this “trade,” but Daniel Murphy seems good.

Trade: Senior Squids | The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses

Senior Squids trade away:

  • 1B Evan White (ML)
  • P Franklin Perez (ML)

The Wildfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses trade away:

Jordan’s thoughts: Squids trades here, two top 200 prospects for an expensive 1B that needs a bounce-back. Hosmer went from Kansas City to San Diego and got worse. He was already borderline average or worse. Perhaps Squids noticed the trend that is Hosmer’s roller coaster career:

  • 2011 – 113 wRC+
  • 2012 – 80 wRC+
  • 2013 – 120 wRC+
  • 2014 – 98 wRC+
  • 2015 – 124 wRC+
  • 2016 – 102 wRC+
  • 2017 – 135 wRC+
  • 2018 – 95 wRC+
  • 2019 – ???

Steamer currently says 110. If it is 110, its okay. If he’s back to 120 or 130 its pretty good. The prospects are fine, but easily replaceable. I wouldn’t personally bet on Hosmer bouncing back in 2019 in a way that makes this an easy keep. But, I’m fine with other people doing so. I’m more fine selling him for two prospects that are easy to require like punting a Hosmer.

Andrew’s thoughts: I’m 100% out on Eric Hosmer as a fantasy asset. He’s only 29 so maybe he FIGURES IT OUT, but this dude has a 109 WRC+ with more than 5,000 career plate appearances. He hits the ball on the ground too much, offers zero year over year consistency (unless you buy into the “every other year he’s good” thing), and plays 1B, a position where you really need a guy that can mash. To me, Hosmer’s draw is that he plays every day. That’s it. That’s not the kind of player I’m into.

Having said that, Evan White and Franklin Perez don’t seem like much to me and if Hosmer gets plopped back into auction, $32 is probably the ballpark for what he gets paid. I wouldn’t want to pay him that, but if the pool is garbage, you may have to. A wise man once told me that the auction will be a blood bath.

I guess I don’t see a definite winner here, really. Squids paid a little to lock up a depth piece with I suppose some semblance of upside (Hosmer’s .376 wOBA in 2017 was a thing that happened, after all) in exchange for two lotto tickets. I’m sure WBFD saw all the flaws in Hosmer’s game and the salary and just said, screw it, I’ll take these two prospects.

Having said all that, this deal is available to both teams the first week of February, right? Like, Squids could have saved these two bullets to see if something better comes along and WBFD could’ve held on to see if perhaps Hosmer gets traded to the Rockies, yes? Eh, whatever.

Three Up Three Down – Carlos Santana

Carlos Santana signed a 3 year $60 mil deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, after 8 MLB seasons with the Cleveland Indians.  It was the Los Angeles Dodgers that signed him as an amateur free agent back in 2004, before trading him to Cleveland for Casey Blake, near the 2008 trade deadline.  He started out as a catcher, but by 2014 he would no longer play the position, moving to 1B/DH.

With the addition on Edwin Encarnacion last offseason, the Indians felt comfortable letting Santana walk in free agency.¬† They also just signed Yonder Alonso for 2 years and $19 mil, a bargain compared to Santana’s price tag. Cleveland also has two 1B prospects in Bobby Bradley and Nellie Rodriguez.¬† Both are big HR and SO guys.

Philly and Santana were not exactly a perfect match, but they worked things out.  The Phillies already have a future 1B in Rhys Hoskins, who took the MLB by storm this past summer, hitting 18 HRs in 212 PA.  That was a 58 HR pace!  Hoskins will turn 25 before the 2018 MLB seasons throws its first pitch and now has to share an OF with Nick Williams (24), Odubel Herrera (26) and Aaron Altherr (27).  There is also Tommy Joseph (26), who is likely to get his ABs at 1B.  The Phillies either have a trade in mind, or they just stunted the growth of some of their top prospects who might never reach their full potential.  Only time will tell.

Overall, the switch-hitting Santana has turned in a .363 OBP in nearly 4600 plate appearances since establishing himself as a Major League regular back in 2011, averaging 153 games played and 24 homers per season along the way. One would think that a move to a much more hitter-friendly environment, Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, should help to improve his power output as well (though his .196 ISO in that time is already plenty strong). РMLB Trade Rumors

Let’s take a look at how Carlos Santana compares to other 1B and the rest of the league over the past two seasons. We will look at HRs, ISO, wOBA, OBP & BB%. When sorted by each category, we will find Santana and then list the players ranked 3 spots above and below him.

Home Runs

Of the 22 qualified 1B, according to FanGraphs, Santana ranks 10th over the last two seasons in total home runs with 57.  The average total is 51.2 with a high of 80 (Edwin Encarnacion) and a low of 18 (Joe Mauer).

$92 Paul Goldschmidt 60
$66 Jose Abreu 58
$19 Wil Myers 58
$31 Carlos Santana 57
$75 Miguel Cabrera 54
$19 Hanley Ramirez 53
$3 Ryan Zimmerman 51

*2018 Salary

Zimmerman’s 51 HRs for $3 is the highest $/HR at 1B – 17.¬† Goldschmidt ranks last at .65.¬† Santana ranks 10th at 1.84.

16 of the 48 qualified hitters with 50 home runs over the last two years are 1B eligible.

There are 131 qualified bats according to FanGraphs.  Santana ranks 32nd in HRs since 2016.

ISO

Santana ranks 9th of 22 at 1B.

Only 7 1B eligible players have more XBH than Santana over the last two years.

Santana ranks 30/131 eligible bats in the MLB since 2016.

The Phillies new 1B ranks 25th overall in XBH during his final two years with the Indians.

wOBA

Carlos Santana ranks 10th in wOBA at 1B.

He ranks 31st out of 131 eligible bats at all positions.

OBP

Santana ranks 9th in OBP at 1B.

He ranks 31st out of 131 eligible bats across all positions.

BB%

Carlos Santana ranks 7th in BB% since 2016.

He ranks 10th in the MLB with Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista being the only non 1B eligible.

When looking at these five categories and focusing on just 1B, Santana ranks very similarly to Goldschmidt, Abreu, Cabrera & Belt.  When you take it into the league, of 1B that cost at least $20 and have scored a total of 1,000+ fantasy points over the past two seasons, Santana has the 2nd highest fantasy points per dollar, behind Belt, while Goldschmidt & Cabrera sit at the bottom.

 

Trade: TBD | The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses

TBD sends: UT Miguel Sano ($48), 1B Eric Hosmer ($25), SS Alex Bregman (ML), SP Jorge Lopez ($5) and SP Edinson Volquez ($7)
The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses send: SP Madison Bumgarner ($81), SP Tanner Roark ($2), RP Dellin Betances ($14), 3B Matt Chapman (ML) and $4 in 2017 Auction Dollars

Jordan‚Äôs thoughts:¬†Wow. I’m not sure where to begin and before I sleep on it I’ll write a few hundred words.

Okay so lets switch our strengths for weaknesses and see what happens? I honestly do not know what to think of this. So it wasn’t a secret that the Diabeetuses not only lacked insulin charges, they lacked starting pitching depth, right? So they send off three more pitchers, because you know, fuck them. They get back a stud hitter, a good hitter, a potentially exciting prospect, a wish and a floppy arm.

Alright…

On the other side, let’s give you a whole pitching staff. Sure. Bummy is outstanding, not really a lot to mention there. Roark if he sticks in the rotation, is fine. Betances should be fine. Some auction cash, a prospect, whatever.

I will take a stab at why this deal got done. WBFD had these aces they spent pretty money on, but no hitters. TBD had these pretty hitters but no pitching. Lets switch some. Okay. Done. I guess they both have a more balanced team going forward. That’s fine.

The simulator here suggests that neither really hurt or improved themselves. I guess that is a win-win. Trading holes is what I have been known to call this kind of transaction. If each participant feels comfortable covering the new holes they created, great.

I love this trade because it is exciting. There are so many pieces moving back and forth. I do not understand this trade, and I think I am okay with that.

Andrew’s thoughts: As Jordan mentioned, strengths were traded for strengths here.

I believe that before trades of any kind, the Diabeetuses had a bottom-3 offense and a top-3 pitching staff. Maybe it wasn’t that extreme, but you get the point. Following the trade, WBFD has maybe a bottom-6 offense and a significantly worse pitching staff? Hopefully my math is wrong. WBFD has added some keepable pieces¬†and spread salaries around a good deal, which is awesome. Except you don’t know if this team is any good yet, so maybe you don’t want to keep all these pieces together? And maybe the team was competitive as a top-heavy unit? WBFD has also now¬†spent $8 of 2017 auction cash already, which maybe ends up being irrelevant, but could be a hurdle if the plan is to go young and keep your squad in tact. Their trades have gotten them way under budget but as I’ve mentioned before, getting under budget for 2017 before the first pitch of 2016 isn’t necessarily advantageous.

If Carlos Martinez takes a step forward into ace territory (this might be more likely than not) then the blow of losing Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta is softened.

I think TBD, who was known to have been shopping Troy Tulowitzki for pitching, did the smart thing and instead put a young, affordable hitter on the block. I love Tulo, but at his salary and with his injury history, he’s just not worth a Bumgarner type guy. Miguel Sano, clearly, is capable of fetching that.

TBD’s offense is largely unaffected. It’s technically worse because Sano and Hosmer are gone, but I’m not sure it’s noticeably worse. The pitching is way better with Bumgarner at the top, but there’s still work to be done. On weeks where Bumgarner starts just once, you’ve still got to fill six starts from Phil Hughes, Jimmy Nelson, Andrew Heaney… meh. Someone there will take a leap and become a viable SP2, but¬†there will be a lot of¬†spin-around-with-your-head-on-a-baseball-bat-and-then-throw-a-dart choices going on here.

I’m inclined to prefer the Bumgarner side as a short term play, but WBFD probably has an edge if you’re looking to the future. Bregman is valuable, right? This one is even as I see it.

2016 Auction Review – TBD

TBD

tbd

Is their team name to be determined, or does TBD stand for something else? We may never know. Anyway during the auction draft do you know that moment when you are kind of poking around looking at the other team to see where they’re at. TBD looks great looking at that list top down. Until you go down. They punted pitchers so hard that I had to take several looks. There’s a lot here to discuss, probably the most fun roster to look at.

Hitters – Outstanding

Yep, I had to give it to someone. 1-10 the hitters here are just outstanding. Now, Matt Wieters had not been flagged for a wuss injury again at the time of the draft so we will pretend he’s okay. Warning, fantasy all-star list incoming: Eric Hosmer, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant, Corey Seager, Troy Tulowitzki, David Peralta, JD Martinez, Miguel Sano, phew. Power, walks, contact, everything. The floor with this line up is so damn high that its impossible to ignore. If you have to nitpick, I can say that I don’t love Pillar in centerfield, but I have a feeling that will be solved at some point. Perhaps Pillar turns into a fantasy starter. Either way, I also don’t love spending $100 on short stops, but it¬†looks like it could work out well here. There’s a chance that Sano ends up finding a position which helps this line up even more.

Pitchers –¬†Whoops

Oh Christ. Really? I mean Phil Hughes is probably the most reliable starter here. Every other guy in that long list of eleven pitchers is someone I’m starting and praying each time. That’s a lot of prayers. Lets imagine that we are¬†in a bar and talking with a buddy who knows enough about sports to not be a complete dumb ass and you are going over roster? Andrew Heaney… Yeah he could be good this year. Jimmy Nelson, yeah he seems like he could be good this year. Edinson Volquez, I mean he’s probably alright. Hyun-jin Ryu, he’s still pitching? Oh he’s recovering from injury? Is he healthy? Well I guess if he’s healthy he’s probably good. Jonathan Gray, well when he’s not pitching in Colorado. You see where I’m going here? I’m not sure Derek Holland, Jorge Lopez, Hector Santiago, Wily Peralta, and Chris Heston are recognizable to your bar buddy so we won’t ask. I’m afraid that if TBD got three above average starters from this group, it would have to be considered a raging success, and that’s not good enough. Maybe there is something in the bullpen…Well TBD¬†drafted three relievers I guess.

Depth –¬†Uh-oh

Well, first off, those four right fielders only qualify for right field. Two of them are rookies. Tulo has to be slotted for the utility slot so his short stop advantage gets washed away. Enrique Hernandez covers a lot of spots, but he does not start daily for the Dodgers. I like Chris Carter, but not enough. The pitching depth doesn’t exist. There’s plenty of bullets to grab depth on this roster, but right now it is ugly as sin.

Why 2016 would be bad…¬†

Thigns are ugly if any less than two starting pitchers are viable from the group. If they don’t find three regular SPs, TBD’s¬†season is over. If Kris Bryant isn’t worth $75, or if both short stops fail to be transcendent hitters. The season is just over. They went all in on the hitters, I love them, but they have to show up. There is a real threat for this pitching staff to score below 100 points on a weekly basis. Considering a good weekly score should be above 500 or 600. That’s way to much to ask of any line up.

Why 2016 would be¬†good…¬†

Luck will happen here, before April seven or eight of the starters show their competency and have reliable roles. TBD then is able to trade one of them to someone else desperate for pitching and get a nice piece. TBD then is also able to cut the others to pick up depth elsewhere. Meanwhile Seager and Tulo end up being top 30 hitters overall. Kris Bryant challenges for MVP because of his bat. The hitters can hit the ceiling easily enough, just a matter of the pitchers climbing from the mud.