Trade: The Process | Who’s Your Haddy?

The Process trades away

  • Bader, Harrison $3.04
  • Rocchio, Brayan (prospect)
  • 2021 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Who’s Your Haddy?)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • EncarnaciĂłn, Edwin $50

Jordan’s Thoughts

Edwin was a great Mariner for three months hitting homers left and right. Now he is a New York Yankee on a playoff run in a easier stadium to hit homers in. He’s a huge asset and definitely a target to grab.

The Process is currently in 10th place, sitting 6-7 and matched up in a must win week 14. Adding Edwin right now makes all the sense in the world and might make the difference who knows.

Best part, in my opinion, is that Ferns here has options. Keeping Edwin at $50 isn’t outrageous. You have to spend the money,  he’s a quality star worth spending on. In two weeks, you can trade him again, I think a similar package in 10 days is available, perhaps the package is even better.

The draft pick has whatever value draft picks have. Brayan Rocchio is an 18-year-old short stop in the Indians system and FanGraphs rates his hit tool at a 60 FV. That’s pretty. He’s currently doing alright in low-A ball and already on the top 100 list (currently 80).

Harrison Bader being in this deal is a punt from Ferns. Haddy is clearly wondering if there’s anything there yet. Bader’s age 25 season so far has been pretty bad. .296 wOBA and 82 wRC+ shows a cold start for the 2019 season. He’s cost controlled, not expensive and last year he was pretty good. Last year his BABIP was .358, this year its .261. Bader who’s pretty quick, probably settles in most years closer to the former number. He’s walking more, striking out slightly less than last year. Things look like a huge buy low guy. But, overall the ceiling here seems pretty low. He’s a CF, that fantasy wise probably tops out in the 10-12 spot, probably more typically in the 16-20 spot. He’s nice to have, value wise, but he needs to be more like last year, less like this year.

For the Haddy’s who are selling, this deal is fine. I know he was shopped around and if this was the the best package for Edwin, sure fine. It seems light, but its not awful. I like what Ferns is doing here, even though he’s playing me this week, don’t hate what Haddy did, seems like a solid trade for both parties.

BAILEY’s Thoughts

I like this trade for both teams. I wanted Edwin myself, but one glance at my roster construction tells you I just didn’t have much need for a 1Bman. So mostly, those negotiations were my way of getting Haddy to talk to me. We chatted, it was fun, so I didn’t make a trade but still feel like a winner.

For The Process, I like the aggressiveness. Edwin is clearly an awesome hitter with a track record of mashing for the better part of a decade. Could he suddenly hit the brick wall of age and suck? Sure. But right now he’s a lock for 30+, approaching 40 homers, and even with the juiced ball, those guys don’t grow on trees. His salary is high, but Ferns has strategically spent four years whittling down his budget to nothing, so he very easily has the option to keep Edwin at $52+ next year. I’m a big believer that worrying about a player’s salary is a waste of time. Lock in the points, worry about the stupid budget stuff later. There’s not a payout for having a $200 roster. And if this is just a short term move for Ferns to try and push into the playoffs, that’s cool too. If you make the playoffs, you put your $150 buy-in back in your pocket. If you don’t, you get a fighting chance at $75 or, if you’re really bad, a shot at a high draft pick. I’d much rather make a trade and gamble that I win back $150 of actual, real life cash than sit idly by for either of the other two prizes. I don’t think the price was that high.

I like Bryan Rocchio as a prospect. He was a guy I was targeting in our minors draft. He was expendable for Ferns though but should be a nice piece for Haddy by the time his retooled team is ready to compete again in 2023. Just kidding, Haddy! You won’t be ready to compete again until 2025.

Harrison Bader and the pick, meanwhile, are pretty blah. Hader will likely get just the minimum $2 raise to $5. I think given his prospect pedigree and that he’s immune to greed, that’s keepable into 2020. No risk there. I think there’s even a decent chance that Haddy opens up center field by trading Mike Trout to TBD for whichever prospects they scooped off waivers this morning, at which point, boom!, Bader is a starting CF in Dynasty Grinders.

Trade: Senior Squids | TBD

TBD trades away

  • Marte, Noelvi (prospect)
  • White, Evan (prospect)
  • Kelenic, Jarred (prospect)
  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 1 (TBD)

Senior Squids trades away

  • Chapman, Matt $9.03

Jordan’s thoughts: Any time you can take a top 20, possibly top 10 asset in the entire league anf turn it into a trio of Mariners prospects and a draft pick you can use to draft another, you have to do it, right?  

No. No you don’t.

Let’s look at Matt Chapman. He’s clearly old at 26 and 2 months. Last year he was a 137 wRC+, .369 wOBA hitter. This year, half way through, he’s been a 137 wRC+, .372 wOBA player. He’s walking slightly more. Striking out slightly less. Hitting way more homers. 

That’s a fun guy to own. An even better guy to have in the cost controlled setting of Dynasty Grinders. He’s currently the 40th highest scoring player. There’s 11 guys currently cost controlled with more points scored. Chapman IS THE GUY that you build around. He just is.

So, the return… Jarred Kelenic (last year’s 6th overall pick in our draft, a pick Squids traded to TBD for Ryan O’Hearn 🤯) lit Mariners twitter on fire early on the season by destroying Single-A ball hitting a 179 wRC+ in 50 games. He got promoted and as a 19-year-young hitter, his first 20 games in High-A has been 99 wRC+. Not awful, he’s young for the league, will probably catch up. But he’s already showing that he’s not the Juan Soto/Ronald Acuna type prospect that’s going to debut at 19 in MLB. He needs time and seasoning. The hit tools are there. He’s probably a good fantasy asset down the line.

Evan White is currently 23-years-old and has been doing alright in Double-A ball for the Mariners system. Another top 100 prospects on the FanGraphs lists and projects to be an average 1Bman that our league has come to love. He has the tools and talents to be some what of an asset in the future, but at 23 in double-A, the ceiling is just lower.

Noelvi Marte is 17-years-young and in rookie ball hitting slightly above average for the level with a 113 wRC+ in 23 games played. Scouts like his hit tools, but he’s not lighting up the charts or looking anything much more than a potential slow climbing prospect. Good to have, yet typically easy to find and acquire. 

Now, based on my simple player review, you are probably gathering that this a slam dunk, what the fuck, how did TBD do this kind of deal. And if you assumed that, well you’re right. 

TBD, currently at 11-2 in the league, sitting in first place, adds a cheap fantasy star for nickels on the dollar. Chapman is the best player in this deal now. Likely the best player in this deal four years from now. Possibly (probably) the best player in this deal in 2027 as a 34 year old. Even if the prospects were better, you still do this type of deal to acquire this kind of player. 100 out of 100 times. 

Senior Squids is currently in 9th place, sitting at 6-7 on the path to mediocrity again. It sucks that things have not broken the right way and the motivation to retool/build for next season seems tempting. The problem is that the obvious plan is to build around guys like Matt Chapman, not give them away to save like $20 of budget and assume the risk of a prospect. If you want to trade an asset like Chapman, the return should be major league ready cost controlled players who are on the rise, PLUS this same minor league package. If you’re not getting that…

HOLD THE ASSET.

I’m sorry, the best plan here for either team is to have Matt Chapman. If you’re concerned about some fluke and having so much stock in one player and you REALLY want to diversify the asset, you have to get more than this. If more does not exist, just hold. Don’t cave into the market that you are forcing yourself into.

Have a plan. Develop the plan. Otherwise you’re on a captainless ship, swaying back and forth in the seas heading in no clear direction based on gut calls hoping to find land. Maybe you luck out. Good luck. 

Return of trade reviews.

Yep, they need to happen. The league was born from it. We went soft and catered to the bullshit. If anything it gets discussion going. I’m willing to eat every single word in this post, printed out on paper (and I hate printing internet things) if the return here wins Squids or the Mariners a championship.

In Memorial (Day) of when we did Trade Reviews

The Evil Otters trades away
2022 Draft Pick, Round 4 (The Evil Otters

The Process trades away
Aguilar, JesĂşs ($12)

AND

The Evil Otters trades away
Cabrera, Miguel ($53)

The Process trades away
Amaya, Miguel

 

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $.02: I guess we can look at this trade as 1 trade, or 2, it doesn’t really matter.   Miguel Cabrera seems like an easy cut at his contract after this season, but I probably would have shopped around harder than to settle for a catcher in A ball who doesn’t particularly have a high ceiling.  I’d argue a 3rd round pick might be better than Amaya.  Fangraphs does have Amaya at 55 hit and power, which if it comes true would certainly be an above average catcher, but this seems like years away and Amaya might need  a team change.  Not a prospect I would have targeted per Hustle Media’s Prospect Rankings™.  Perhaps Kyle should have put Miguel Cabrera on the #tradeblock, but then again in this league a guy over 30 with an expensive contract it’s basically implied “no interest”.  I like this trade a lot for Ferns because he got a guy who fits a positional need and will play almost every day, and has a chance to be better than he has shown this season, and he got him for close to free.  As Miguel Cabrera wasn’t going to be part of the Evil Otters following this season, it’s not like Kyle lost much. After his team’s previous owner traded a bunch of draft picks and quit the league, Kyle has been rebuilding through prospect trades and pickups, so it makes sense to get a guy at least interesting.

The second trade actually does do quite a bit to balance this in my eyes for Kyle.  Getting Jesus Aguilar for basically free seems like a nice gamble.  Aguilar was borderline elite last year and through struggles and playing time has been an afterthought.  It’s not a bad decision to keep him on your bench to see if he gets traded or hot (and starts games) for the price of nothing.  Aguilar is a potential keeper, whereas Miguel (Cabrera to be clear) has no potential keepability. For Ferns, he was in a roster crunch. I’ve been there, so I get it. Better to get something than nothing.

This was kind of too many words to talk about Miguel Amaya and Jesus Aguilar today, but I’m at work and had nothing better to do.  However we spend Memorial Day, let us all remember the great trades over the years in Dynasty Grinders history. Kyle may have gotten Jesus Aguilar for free after Ferns got Miguel Cabrera for free, but free players has been an institution in Dynasty Grinders since 2016 as well as trading Miguel Cabrera

Let us take a stroll back down memorial lane 3 years ago when Ferns once again acquired Miguel Cabrera.

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Gray, Sonny
Ruiz, Rio
Zunino, Mike
2017 Draft Pick, Round 3 (The Foundation)
Tropeano, Nick
Ruiz, Carlos
Lee, Zach
Cabrera, Miguel

Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Bellinger, Cody
Presley, Alex
Phillips, Brett
2017 Draft Pick, Round 1 (Preseason Double Stuffs)
Happ, Ian
Soler, Jorge

 

Have a great Memorial Day.

IT’S BASEBALL SEASON

 

 

Trade: Long ball to LF | The Process

Long ball to LF trades away:

  • CF Cristian Pache (ML)
  • SS Gavin Lux (ML)

The Process trades away:

  • SP Luis Patino (ML)

Jordan’s thoughts: Prospect for prospect trades are always mildly interesting. Sure, some are better than others, but we’re basically trading guys positioned on opinion lists for each other. We don’t get to scout or know anything more about these players than the writers who are interpreting what they see, or worse, what other people say they are seeing.

That being said, Luis Patino according to the hive-mind at FanGraphs.com was ranked 60th on the prospect list at one point. He’s a 50 FV prospect with a high risk and estimated 2023 debut. I understand that since that ranking his stock has improved. Okay. He is listed at 6’0 150 lb. I get called quite skinny, and I’m 5’4 145lb. Yeesh.

Pache is ranked higher on the list I have. Again probably outdated. 60 FV, 18th on the top 100. Without digging deeper, perhaps his stock is high because of defensive value. While we don’t get points for defense, we do get points for players that play and typically great defenders get lots of chances to learn how to hit.

Gavin Lux has been traded for a second time and he’s still a 45 FV prospect who apparently is climbing some charts. He hit well in AA last year.

Everyone wins this trade because trades are fun.

Andrew’s thoughts: I’m not prepared to argue either side of this trade is better than the other, so good for both teams. I think Cristian Pache is probably the highest “ranked” guy, but all the scouting reports I’ve read suggest to me that he’s all defense and speed and maybe you’re lucky if he’s Kevin Pillar or Kevin Kiermaier, well, that’s not particularly relevant to our scoring. But if he can hit at even a league average level for centerfield, well, at zero cost, maybe that’s useful.

Patino, meanwhile, just seems forever away. Remember Anderson Espinoza from a few years back? He was the next Pedro Martinez until he got hurt and fell off the face of the planet. Personally, I tend to devalue pitching prospects with long lead times. This seems to me like Long Ball is betting on Patino climbing prospect lists so that he can flip him for something better.

But whatever. This trade seems fine to me overall.

Trade: Capital City Income| Uncreative Team Name

Capital City Income trades away
Anderson Alexander Tejeda
Hudson Potts

TBD trades away
Bryse Wilson
Nick Solak
1 Auction Dollar

Bryse Wilson throws a baseball.

Jordan’s Thoughts: Oh boy! A prospect trade. I have heard of some of these guys. First off I was not patient enough to figure out how to find A A Tejada on FanGraphs and I’m perfectly fine ignoring him. Hudson Potts just based on looking at his minor league record does not strike me as anything interesting other than he’s a former first round pick and they tend to get more chances to thrive.

Nick Solak is hitting homers and showing ability to dephicer a strike zone at the double-A level. That’s likeable. Bryse Wilson also looks pretty promising. He’s on the cusp of breaking through, but he’s in an organization full of starting pitchers and could end up spending more time than you want in a bullpen. Either way he’s a major leaguer with options. 

The one auction dollar switching sides is clearly the biggest piece moving here. Two top teams slide money across the table is definitely interesting.

Hustle’s toxic $.02: Most surprising part of this deal was that Jordan has heard of some of these names.  I like this trade more for the Income’s here.  You kinda hope Tejada turns into Solak, so why wouldn’t you just rather have Solak? Especially when Tejada is a much less given to stick at 2nd. 

Potts vs Wilson seems more reasonable.  Bailey continues to build an army of near major league ready arms by adding Wilson to Wdener and Quantrill.  You pretty much get a player for 2 years for free if they are cost controlled, so its very easy to see some value come through near major league ready pitching, even if there’s limited upside. Potts has been gaining some hype, but to me the bar for being a good 3b is a lot higher than it use to be. My intuition tells me TBD will trade Potts within a year. 

The Dynasty Grinders New Deal…

As discussed in the Slack Channel and Podcast, there is definitely room to improve the overall quality of life in the league. The following proposed rule changes are intended to improve overall competitiveness, bring clarity to confusing rules, and speed up certain aspects of our game that should make playing much more fun.

The simple stuff…

Raising the greed money per team to $2 to spread among each of their 15 peers’ teams. You do have to select two different players who are not cost controlled to receive an extra one dollar raise. Cost controlled players would remain unaffected. However, top 30 players would no longer be a protected class.

This would go into effect after the 2019 season.

I believe the top 30 rule hasn’t been as useful or necessary as originally thought. Inflating everyone’s budget another $15 via the greed rule, theoretically adds another $30 player to the auction pool each year. This helps make the auction draft great again (MADGA), as potentially 15-20 more starters hit the pool each year.

There has been ample discussion on how to handle the current situation where teams have been selling off significant amounts of auction budget in exchange for prospects. I believe that nobody can really determine if it is broken. There is definitely argument for both sides of this logic. However, we believe after much discussion, that its not in our best interest to limit teams’ potential to make these kinds of deals. It is also not in the league’s best interest to allow teams to carry from year to year a budget that clearly overshadows the rest of the league.

The proposal: Adjusting the language written in the current rule regarding the final cut day:

  • Currently: On Final Cut Day, every team needs to cut players down to their Team budget. You must leave $1 of Team Budget remaining per each empty major league roster spot.
  • Proposal: On Final Cut Day, every team needs to cut down to a total team salary of $500 or less. You must leave $1 of Team Budget remaining per each empty major league roster spot.

The term “Team Budget” refers to your team’s individual budget for a season that started at $500 +/- whatever trades you made that incorporated budget.

Essentially, if you have acquired additional auction budget, you may take any surplus budget with you to auction, but will not be able to use it pre-auction to keep additional players already on your roster.

All trades made between the Final Cut Day and Auction that put a team over the threshold for this rule will be voided and reversed.

The rational here starts with MADGA and helps keep some kind of competitive balance. Teams can still swap budget and make trades, but Final Cut Day does impose limits of sorts.

The paradigm shift…

Eliminating long relief appearances. There is big time potential in the immediate future for long relief appearances to become not only more common, but also more predictable as provided by the Ryan Yarbrough/Tampa Bay Rays example. Due to a lack of flexibility with how we can handle these kinds of scenarios, where the majority (if not all) of the player’s fantasy value stems from circumventing our Games Started limit, the proposed solution is to eliminate all relief appearances that are 10 outs or more (3.1 IP). The player would be moved from that active roster to the bench retroactively by a commissioner. The newest solution is to count all appearances that last ten outs or more and take place in the first nine innings of any baseball game, count as one of your seven starts for the week.

This would go into effect for the 2019 season.

It is not ideal that the commissioner needs to be hands on in these cases, but the running theory is that players like Yarbrough become useless less useful on your roster because they will not often score points for you. So they end up taking a roster spot for nothing little return. Thus meaning that only the rare unicorn relief appearances need to be adjusted to count as starts which we believe will be few and far in between. This simply solves an exploit, without much damage to anything else.

The worst system in Dynasty Grinders… gone!

It is no secret that the cost controlled system in Dynasty Grinders is confusing. A series of rules and hard caps were created when the league began to make things simple and after three seasons, there’s nothing simple about it. Currently the following things are true about the cost controlled system:

  • Prospects are valuable and cheaper.
  • We don’t know their exact value until mid- to late-offseason.
  • Its not easy to predict what their value is going to be in-season due to basing their cost on future projections.
  • Its incredibly frustrating to have a player start their cost controlled status because of a cup of coffee stint in MLB.

The first bullet point is fine and in the spirit of dynasty leagues, it makes sense to keep. The other three make sense to eliminate. To do so, the idea is to base the player’s cost controlled raises on their previous season’s performance. This means that after Fantrax rolls over the league, we would be able to update all player salaries (short of the greed vote) immediately and teams can better budget around those changes, which should open up the entire off-season to activity. Subsequently, we can apply greed much earlier in the off-season to allow even more time to plan for the following season.

In almost all cases this causes these cost controlled players will receive raises similar to or less than they would have in the old system. This means that prospects are still valuable and cheaper to keep. But knowing how they’re performing in the year before you can gauge within a few dollars of what they’re likely going to cost the next season. We will also know after the season ends (even before the World Series ends!) exactly what they will cost. In some cases, where players don’t meet the the minimum threshold, they don’t have their “clocks” begin. Easier and more fun.

Currently players follow this system:

  • The year they break into the majors they are $0.
  • The next season they are automatically $1 if they have 1 PA or 0.1 IP.
  • In their 3rd year you pay 20% of their FanGraphs ZIPS auction calculator value.
  • 4th year you pay 40%
  • 5th year you pay 60%
  • 6th year you pay 80% and then they graduate, become eligible for greed, etc.

The redesign of the system will base the players “bonus” on their performance. All players who finish the season with positive point totals will be placed on a scale. Minor leaguers who finish the season below the 60th percentile will not reach cost controlled status. All minor leaguers who finish above the 60th percentile will cost $1 in the following season.

Cost controlled players who finish below the 90th percentile will get the minimum $2 raise each season.

From there cost controlled players could get raises higher than $2 based if they finish above the following thresholds:

  • 90th percentile: $4 raise
  • 93rd percentile: $6 raise
  • 95th percentile: $8 raise
  • 97th percentile: $10 raise
  • 98th percentile: $13 raise
  • 99th percentile: $16 raise

For some context on what those limits were in 2018: players who scored less than 256 points did not hit the 60th percentile so they would remain minor leaguers. This ensures that players who get promoted in September or otherwise receive “cup of coffee” promotions do not see their clocks start.

Cost controlled players who finish below the 90th percentile (794 points in 2018) get the standard $2 raise.

Above that 93rd was 867 points, 95th was 932 points, 97th was 1044 points, 98th was 1099 points and 99th was 1197 points.

That’s a lot of numbers and data is going to be provided to show how that affects our league.

In keeping with our existing rule, players who are picked up from free agency and debut in that same season are not eligible for cost control status and will be subject to free agent raise rules.

This achieves all of the goals that we set out to do. We’re currently waiting for FanGraphs to bail us out each year to stick to how the system was designed. That puts us at their mercy and from the first two seasons, it did not do a great or consistent job anyway. Getting away from that, allows a lot more flexibility and the ease of planning for the future sooner. I think these are all good things.

The forgotten topic…

Simply, players who were picked up as free agents during the year who were kept from the previous season currently have their keeper value set to $5. This should be bumped to $7 effective after the 2019 season.

Yep.

THE RESULT…

UPDATED 12/04/2018: By a final vote of 11-5 in favor of these changes, the Dynasty Grinders New Deal package of rule changes has passed.

You can view the results here.

Trade: Evil Otters | Marshall Law

Evil Otters trades away
Ureña, José ($5+)
Diaz, Yusniel (ML)
Brujan, Vidal (ML)

Marshall Law trades away
Cabrera, Miguel ($51+)

Jordan’s Thoughts: Miguel Cabrera is that old guy who seems to continue to be good. Last year he had a bad year. Injuries are painful. STEAMER projects him to be over 900 points again and I think that makes his price at $51 more then fair. Miggy’s ceiling seems potentially high to me as well.

Jose Urena was pretty good last year, scoring 846 points. STEAMER does expect some what of a step back, I’m not sure that’s warrented or not. Either way following Hustle’s rule of any starter under $10 being valuable. That’s an asset. Both Diaz and Brujan are prospects that on first glance of a fangraphs search both look pretty good. Brujan in A+ league last year looks really talented. 55 steals last year, but also has power and plate patience.

Marshall Law clearly rebuilding and the pieces he got back for Miguel Cabrera seem pretty great. I wouldn’t be surprised that the market for Miggy is pretty low and he got a decent haul. For the Evil Otters, you’re still getting a future Hall of Famer coming off an injury plagued year. Have to like the deal for both teams. I know that declaring a winner will make me look stupid in three years when I look back, so I’ll go ahead and do it now…. Evil Otters will regret trading Vidal Brujan (hi future Jordan!)

Andrew’s Thoughts: Here’s a fun fact: while playing injured last year, Miguel Cabrera put up a .360 wOBA and a 128 WRC+. All the Statcast and xStats stuff looked good too. I know he’s old, big-bodied, and brittle. I know that $53 pre-greed is a pretty sizeable cost. But as long as he’s on the field and playing, he’s still a damn good hitter and if you have any intention of winning, well, you need damn good hitters and I don’t really think you can twiddle your thumbs all off-season and hope you win one or two at auction.

I like that Marshall Law, who is rebuilding, was able to get two top-100 prospects and a serviceable, cheap pitcher back for him. And more than that, I like that the Evil Otters paid that price. Miggy is exactly the type of player that I felt would be hastily given away for practically nothing rather than a viable package, so I’m just happy to see this deal at all.

This seems like a win-win deal to me.

Trade: Who’s Your Haddy? | Trumpa Loompas

WYH sends: LF/RF David Dahl ($3; cost controlled), LF Christin Stewart (minors), CF Estevan Florial (minors), 2019 2nd Round Pick, 2020 1st Round Pick
TL sends: LF/CF/RF Adam Eaton ($26), two 2019 3rd Round Picks, 2020 2nd Round Pick

Andrew’s thoughts: I think at first glance this might look like a big overpay for Haddy, just because prospect value seems to have skyrocketed so much here. But upon closer inspection, I don’t think it is.

First of all, Haddy easily gets the best player in this deal, though he comes with a lot of risk. Adam Eaton has only logged 178 plate appearances since coming to DC via Chicago before the 2017 season, seemingly suffering one injury after another. They’ve been fairly serious injuries too, not just bumps and bruises. But in the three seasons from 2014-16, he was sturdy and steady, posting wOBAs over .340 each year. In his limited action in DC, he’s running a .374 wOBA and 134 WRC+. That is very, very good. He’s also only 29-years-old, can play all three outfield spots, and will start at $28 to keep, which for his production is more than reasonable. Sure, he’s risky. But he’s a proven producer and even with the injuries, I’m not convinced he’s more risky than the meh prospects Haddy got rid of here.

Of the guys going back to Trumpa Loompas, I actually think I like Christin Stewart the best. He’s murdering minor league pitching this year and I’ve read some Khris Davis comps on him. He walks a bunch, has crazy power, and this year has cut back considerably on his strikeouts. I’m not sure he should be the best guy you get for a player of Eaton’s caliber, but I like him.

The other two players are a mixed bag. David Dahl is way more injury prone than Eaton and despite a .367 wOBA over 237 plate appearances in 2016, he hasn’t really done anything at the major league level in more than a season. He doesn’t walk, strikes out a bunch, and the Rockies seem really bad at integrating prospects into their team. I get that any halfway decent hitter at Coors is enticing, but I’m just not a big Dahl fan. Wasn’t he at one point part of Haddy’s return for Mookie Betts though? His star has really faded.

I guess Esteval Florial is the biggest name prospect, and the guy who appears highest on lists, but I’m not that into him either. I guess FanGraphs did slap a 60 on his raw power, but he’s hurt now and has yet to play past A+, so he’s a ways off from contributing, and I don’t recall reading any gushing reports about him. For sure, his minor league numbers are good. I don’t know. I won’t pretend to know a ton about him. Suffice to say, I’m not drooling over this guy as a fantasy prospect right now.

Maybe I’m just blinded by my overall love of Adam Eaton here, but I like this for Haddy overall. He absolutely had to improve his offense and did it for wildcards. Yes, the guy he got back is risky, but his age, salary, and eligibility make it feel worth it. The only real problem I see is that he sort of fired all his bullets in this one deal, unless he wants to flip Austin Riley. I don’t know what he’d fetch. Probably a good piece in this league, actually. I guess we’ll see. For now, given where Haddy’s team is in the standings, I’d be pretty happy getting Eaton, and then just hold my breath that he doesn’t break again.

Hustle’s toxic $0.02:  

Bailey wrote a lot of words, I’ll write a lot less. I agree with most of his point.

I like this trade for both teams. T.L. got some intriguing prospects with upside who have a chance to become regulars for him at a low cost while upgrading a few draft picks. On the flip side, he has a lot of salary to work with next year, so a healthy Adam Eaton wasn’t likely burning a hole in his pocket.

This trade simply comes down to whether Eaton  can stay healthy and perform like a healthy Eaton has performed.  If Eaton can be that guy, Haddy’s team add a very solid offensive bat and one that is keepable for a few years.  If he can’t stay healthy, Haddy lost some wildcard prospects. If one of the three work out as being a good contributor for multiple years, then T.L. probably makes out great, because even if Eaton is a monster R.O.S., T.L. is out of the playoff hunt most likely anyway. That’s really the scenario they are both betting on.  If T.L. somehow manages 2 long term assets here, well then, that could make the Trumpa Loomps great again….finally.

I also agree with Bailey’s assessment on the spects. I like Stewart the most, and he’s potentially a guy much better suited for our point scoring than a 5×5 league, so perhaps he’s been underrated on some fantasy lists and his lack of defensive prowess probably made him underrated on other prospect lists.  Florial is injured right now and struggled a bit this year, but is only 20 and seems like he’s due to pick up value at some point. Dahl hasn’t been good since 2016, but an every day regular in Coors is always intriguing.

Bottom line, this is a good gamble for both sides.

Trade: Senior Squids | Long Ball to LF

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Musgrove, Joe
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids)
Wright, Kyle
O’Neill, Tyler

Senior Squids trades away
Paxton, James

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

The nice thing I’ll say about this trade is that I do like it more than the last one.  Paxton is a more volatile asset than Gary Sanchez is, thus I think it’s a better piece to trade if you’re rebuilding/tanking.  Elton took my advice from the last review in trading Paxton. I still think it would be preferable to have made this trade rather than and instead of the last one.

That being said, I still think this isn’t a great trade, but it’s not awful.  It’s basically a downgrade from a near ace level pitcher in Paxton to whatever Musgrove is with a wild card shot on Wright or Oneil being something. If Oneill becomes a middle of the order bopper year in and year out and Musgrove is a top 30ish pitcher, then it probably works out ok for him. That still seems like a lot of risk of both those things happening rather than Paxton just staying good. Paxton could get hurt, but Musgrove is no stranger to injuries either.  Seems risky with not a ton of upside unless you think Paxton isn’t built to hold up for a few years or that Musgrove will become close to his tier of a player. Which I suppose is possible!

I still have trouble seeing how this puts Elton in a better position to beat the teams he made stronger in 2019 and beyond. Senior Squids finally has a top 10 farm, and their best course now is to let his prospects marinate and hopefully next year flip them for an elite asset like Gary Sanchez or James Paxton. This trade reminds me a lot of the Pirates trading Gerit Cole, when they sought elite future assets and ended up with… Joe Musgrove.

For Long Ball, this seems like a no brainer move. Sure Paxton has injury risk, but so does Musgrove. Every trade has inherent risks, but this seems like a pretty safe bet. With a rotation of Nola, Paxton, and Greinke, the Long Balls look to be serious contenders now and in the future.

Andrew’s thoughts: 

James Paxton is a weird guy to value. He’s obviously very, very good, but he’s also constantly hurt. He’s never thrown more than 136 innings and I feel like if you’re buying him, you’re probably worried he won’t be available when it matters most (H2H playoff time). At the same time… he costs only $10, $12 minimum to keep, and that is effectively nothing. Even if he gets greeded up to $20, that’s peanuts for a player of his caliber. He could miss all of 2019 for whatever reason and still be cheap enough to keep into 2020. I guess what I’m saying is, he’s riskier than your average pitcher, but his price and ability outweigh a good majority of that risk. I agree with Hustle’s general sentiment that, for a rebuilding team, Paxton is the most obvious chip to move (and that he should’ve been traded first and instead of franchise piece Gary Sanchez).

On the other side, Joe Musgrove also appears to be an injury risk. He’s only pitched in four MLB games this year after battling injuries all winter and spring. I like Musgrove, but I’m a little shocked he’s the main piece in a deal for a Paxton-like stud. I’m having flashbacks to Lewis Brinson — in other words, a guy who pops up on the trade block sporadically for months, then is suddenly headlining a deal for a star. In this case, three of Musgrove’s four starts have been good, so I guess that’s enough to make him valuable.

In essence, Long Ball paid three prospects — O’Neill, Wright, and a pick — to upgrade Musgrove to Paxton. And I love it. He had to do it. He didn’t, in my opinion, touch any of his premium prospects to get this deal done (if I’m Squids and trading Paxton to Long Ball, I’m getting Juan Soto or Bo Bichette back or I’m shopping really hard elsewhere). Musgrove seems good, but Paxton is elite. To me, Tyler O’Neill is a depth piece in our league. The power will play, but his cost control clock has already started ticking and he’s on a team that doesn’t have room for him. Is he just a fourth outfielder? Kyle Wright ranked 24th on FanGraphs’ new prospect list, but I don’t know much about him. He’s a pitcher, and if I’m tanking this year and probably next as Squids appears to be doing, I’m just not pumped to do it all around pitchers.

Ultimately I can’t escape the feeling here that Squids decided Paxton had to go ASAP and just took whatever offer looked best. Yeah, Paxton’s risky, but given his performance and cost, literally every team should have shown interest. Paxton is more valuable to even a rebuilding team than almost any prospect or combo of 2-3 prospects. I’d love to know if any “rebuilding” teams inquired. I know Squids has taken some pleasure in trying to play the “top teams” against each other as he tears down, but the market for Paxton should’ve been vast and the return just seems underwhelming. Oh well. Paxton’s arm could melt off at any moment (he had forearm cramping during his last start!) and this deal could then look fantastic simply by virtue of getting something. There aren’t a lot of studs in the league for under $20, but Paxton’s one of them and injury history be damned, I feel like he should’ve fetched a Bichette, Soto, or some prospect of that ilk a tier or two below the Vlads and Acunas of the world. Kyle Wright feels very blah to me. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out and if injuries play a role in the narrative.

 

 

Trade: Senior Squids | TBD

SS sends: C Gary Sanchez ($27), $10 Auction Budget
TBD sends: SP Michel Baez (minors), 2B/CF Jahmai Jones (minors), RF Alex Kirilloff (minors), SP Franklin Perez (minors)

Hustle’s toxic $0.02: When the centerpiece of your sell off return is a pitcher in A-ball, you’ve done something wrong. Maybe if you weren’t selling off a big piece, sure. That being said, Gary Sanchez is 25 at the top of an elite position and comfortable priced under 30 bucks. I like Michel Baez, I’ve offered trades for him… but I’ve offered other prospects. Baez is also currently sporting a 4.71 xFIP as well as a 4.7 BB/9. The odds of Baez being an Ace in the majors is real, but slim. Franklin Perez is injured at the moment, he projects to be a decent MLB starter, but also might not be. Kirilloff is certainly a nice A-ball bat, but it’s also at outfield where it’s not particularly hard to find productivity. Jahmi Jones is just a guy. Maybe he’s the good version of Brad Miller/Brandon Phillips at 2B, a very decent depth piece to have if he hits. The chances of one of these players being a superstar like Sanchez is probably under 50%, it’s probably under 25%. You already have a young Sanchez, so trading him for risk seems like a pretty big mistake. If Gary Sanchez suffers a career threatening injury, I like this trade for Squids.

I think if you’re Squids and giving up on 2018 for some reason, it would have made more sense to try and get something out of Paxton instead of Sanchez. Paxton is 29 and has a lengthy injury history. Someone surely would have given him a few decent prospects for him too (still can!). But I think Squid’s goal of assembling the real life Mariners in a 16 team league is real and won’t be stopped.

TBD already has the best team on paper prior to this trade as well as the most points, so this only makes that stronger. In the end, things will come down to a one week playoff and certainly anything is possible. TBD has done tremendously trading non elite prospects for top tier talent. I think Squids panicked a little early in the season and once his mind was made up he was out of it he decided to play kingmaker but instead has made his team a pawn for years to come.

The $10 isn’t a big deal in terms of budget, it’s just a reminder of how cruel humanity can be.

Andrew’s thoughts: When Squids first traded for Gary Sanchez, I got my assessment wrong. That deal was for Corey Kluber, and in retrospect, it’s been alright. Sanchez has done far more than I thought he would and, surprise, surprise, the cost control aspect of these players that I harped on in that review isn’t that big a deal.

Anyway, here we are again, another chance to review a Sanchez trade. And this one strikes me as… worse.

I just don’t understand trading a young, affordable, elite hitter at the top of a thin position for a handful of non-elite prospects. I can’t even decipher who the best prospect here is. I guess it’s Franklin Perez, since he’s seemingly the closest to the majors. If I’m going to trade Sanchez to TBD and I insist on doing it for prospects, then Eloy Jimenez is involved or there’s no deal to be made. Period. I was amazed that JD Martinez and a full loan was handed over to TBD without Eloy and I’m amazed that now Sanchez has been too. If TBD says Eloy’s untouchable, then alright, move along. Whatever. There’s no clear reason that Sanchez had to go anywhere, so just keep him. He’s better than Eloy anyway. But at least in Eloy you’re getting a legitimate, consensus top flight prospect. You do him, Baez, and Jones or whatever and this seems at least explainable.

I just don’t really get the rush to punt on Sanchez. At worst, he’s $44 next year — and that’s with greed, which now will be spread out across other guys instead. Whatever salary is ultimately freed up here seems like it has very little, if any, practical value, especially since $10 also inexplicably got dumped into TBD’s pocket (kudos to Joe and/or Josh for having the balls to say, “we realize we’re getting the best catcher in the game here and he’s on a nice salary, but can we also get $10 to cover when teams greed him up?”), eating into whatever savings. And Squids spent $51 at auction this year on relievers and a broken Carlos Rodon. So like, just don’t do that next year and you can safely keep elite Sanchez. You’re way, way, way better off going into auction with a proven points-scorer like Sanchez locked in than with a bunch of money to flush on risky players.

I mean… our trade block is public, and in it, Squids insisted on “top grade” prospects and cited “major league ready” as a bonus. This batch of prospects are not “top grade.” Per FanGraphs most recent grades, Baez is a 55 FV, the other three guys are 50. That is indisputably not “top grade.” And of them, only Perez is all that close to the majors. Jones is in A+ and converting from CF to 2B, so his development may lag a little. Baez isn’t faring all that well in A+. Kirilloff is coming off surgery in A-ball. These guys won’t help this year or next, most likely, and may not be fantasy relevant until 2020.

So yeah, I just love this deal for TBD. They’ll pick up a few prospects from their watch list for $0 FAAB bids this morning and let them marinate in their minors a while until eventually they’re on a top-100 list, because on a long enough timeline that’s just sort of what happens with halfway decent prospects. And in the meantime, they’ll bank a bunch of Sanchez homer points en route to a potential points championship. Good work, fellas.