Trade: The Foundation | Who’s Your Haddy?

The Foundation trades away

  • 2020¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†4 (Who’s Your Haddy?)
  • Montas, Frankie $5
  • Waters, Drew (prospect)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Sale, Chris $94

Jordan’s Thoughts

I mean its Chris Sale. He used April for Spring Training, and now he’s a top 5 pitcher again. Frankie Montas got caught doping, he won’t pitch again this year, at least in a Dynasty Grinders season window. For $5, based on his performance gain, Montas is a huge piece of this trade. He’s hard to lose. But, anytime with PEDs, there’s just a ton of questions that cloud the value.

Perhaps he comes back next season and he’s a top 10 pitcher at essentially no cost. Perhaps he comes back and he’s average. Who knows. He had value, but no longer had value to me for this year where I’m trying to win. Easy for me to move away from.

Being in the 6th spot in a 6 team playoff format, this kind of trade helps me hang on. Once you’re in the playoffs, in our head to head format, pitchers like Chris Sale can swing a playoff week for you. Who knows? He could help me make a run.

For Haddy’s, selling Sale makes enough sense. I’m guessing when he shopped Sale around he was hoping for a stronger market. Getting back Montas is fine. Drew Waters is a FV55 center fielder who in double-A is crushing the ball. His 152 wRC+ over 80 games trends well for the 20-year-old. Waters has been climbing prospect charts for a while now and shows no real signs of slowing down.

Overall, I love this trade for myself. Losing Montas and Waters is easily worth the gamble to hold on and solidify myself for a playoff run. Even if I miss the playoffs, Sale is keepable at whatever price tag. He’s just that consistently good.

BAILEY’s Thoughts

A lot of what I wrote about the Verlander trade applies here and I don’t want to go heavy negative again twice.

So having said that, predictably, yes, I like this for Jordan. When this deal first went down, I sort of assumed it’d be tough for Jordan to keep Chris Sale at $99 — but he’s probably gonna cost around $110 when all is said and done — but that’s not true. Andrew McCutchen coming off injury at $54 is an easy cut. Jose Quintana, who went for an inflated auction lack-of-pitching price and will be $60, is an easy cut. That right there is $114, which is Sale’s max value. Anyone in their right mind is trading McCutchen/Quintana for Sale, so sure. Obviously that doesn’t include raises, greed, or cost control arbitration, but it’s close enough to where Jordan can move around lesser, meaningless pieces and make it work. Like, you don’t keep a $28 Yasiel Puig if it means losing Sale. Ditto a $68 Corey Seager. So yeah, great deal for 2019 Jordan and beyond.

For Haddy, I’ll stay positive: I love Drew Waters. I picked him up last year and think he’s going to be really good. The Braves future outfield looks stacked. The 4th round pick is… literally nothing. I can’t be positive there.

The best part of this trade is Frankie Montas, who will be $7 pre-greed and while he’s risky, at least we’ve seen flashes of excellence at the major league level. Montas is the type of piece missing from so many of these rebuild deals, where teams seem hell bent on picks and prospects and blind to actual major league talent.

This year Montas pitched to a brilliant 2.90 FIP and 3.38 xFIP over 90 innings. And contrary to what Jordan wrote, I don’t feel like the PEDs are a big red flag over his performance. He added a splitter to his repertoire this year, giving him a fourth pitch, and it worked out great for him. PEDs won’t change that. In fact, for Haddy, the suspension is pretty great. He just gets to sit and rest his arm for three months. Yay.

To me, at 202 career IP and now that he’s got this new pitch, Montas is essentially still a prospect. He’s only 26 and pitchers take time. But unlike any other pitching prospect on a Top 100 list, he’s done stuff at the majors. There’s a track record here. He’s not a total dart throw. So for Haddy, I like the main piece coming back being one of immediate, somewhat proven fantasy relevance.

Trade: TBD | Who’s Your Haddy?

TBD trades away

  • Solak, Nick (prospect)
  • May, Dustin (prospect)
  • Adams, Jordyn (prospect)
  • Groshans, Jordan (prospect)
  • 2020¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†1 (The Process)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Verlander, Justin $50

Jordan’s Thoughts

Justin Verlander is OLD. 36 is a high number for a baseball player and fantasy owners alike. However, this deal is about finishing this year strong. TBD currently in first place, is padding their roster for a deep playoff run. It is smart, makes sense, and its for a player that clearly makes a difference.

Verlander is currently 5th in highest points scored in our league. He’s averaging nearly 42 points a start. In a two start week, he can bury your opponent. He didn’t help Haddy enough, as the rest of your roster still matters, but for TBD’s duo, the rest of their roster was fine before they added Verlander.

For TBD making this trade is easy. Trading some of tomorrow’s lottery tickets for an actual top end upgrade for today is something you do every day. Prospects are easy to come by, teams need them, they’re nice to have, but this is the best way (in my humble opinion) to use prospects. To push to win. Waiting on them to mature is fine, you hope they make crazy weird jumps to relevance that makes you feel good and seem like a genius. But, none of us really know.

For Haddy, well if you’re out, these kinds of deals make sense. Verlander isn’t helping you win this year, winning is no longer a top concern. Verlander would help you win next year, however he is older, and he’s a pitcher and they break. If I’m Haddy I’m pretty happy with this return. He’s getting two top 100 prospects, May who’s a top 20, plus two other prospects who are better than interesting.

The two Jordan’s (Jordyn?) were first round top 20 picks in the MLB 2018 draft. Both grade out as 45+ FV guys with hit tools being their ticket. Betting on those guys is a good idea.

Dustin May (60FV) just got called up to AAA and will be tested by the new home run ball. So far in 2019 he has looked good and projects to be a middle of the rotation, perhaps potentially a top end starter.

Nick Solak (50FV) is also in AAA for the Rays/Expos and he walks and hits for power. He’s the classic profile I like to target for my hitters in these kinds of leagues. For me he looks like a high floor hitter, with a ceiling that potentially could be very sexy.

I like what Haddy got back, but he’ll miss Verlander next year when he’s going to push to get back into the playoffs again. TBD will have forgotten who these prospects are this time next year. They have shown time and time again their ability to reload the system cost effectively. Verlander doesn’t guarantee a championship, but it makes it harder for them to lose it.

Bailey’s Thoughts

Okay, so up front: Jordan’s already written his review, but I’m not going to read it first. So if I repeat anything he said, sorry.

In short: I love this for TBD and don’t understand it at all for Haddy. I really don’t.

Here’s the thing about this league, in my opinion: we’re in year four and there has, to my recollection, never been an “ace” starting pitcher at auction. Let me think. I think Luis Severino was in our second year, but he was just a random former prospect then. And are we confident he’s an “ace” currently? I’m sure not. I guess Zach Greinke, Madison Bumgarner, and David Price were the year before last. But is Price an “ace”? I think you want him as your SP2 or SP3, not SP1. Is Bumgarner an ace? I’d debate that, though he’s obviously good. Greinke’s an ace. So okay, in four years, one proven, surefire ace SP has made it to auction, and I think at the time there were looming questions about him. That’s the thing. These top tier starters do not hit auction. They don’t. Verlander won’t. TBD is 100% keeping him unless he suffers an injury, or I guess trading him.

I guess also, when I say “ace,” it’s kind of deceiving because it makes you think pitcher. I’m sort of thinking as just overall, elite player. Mike Trout doesn’t get to auction. Cody Bellinger doesn’t. Christian Yelich doesn’t. Freddie Freeman doesn’t. The only way you get these guys is by trading for them or by stumbling upon one.

Here’s what happens, time and time again: all the stud pitchers get sold for prospects because their salary or age is so terrifying. Oh no, Verlander is 36 and my goal is to build a dynasty that dominates for eight years in a row, gotta dump him. Then there’s 6-8 teams with $200+ of cap space to spend on the ace they assume will get cut, but instead, those 6-8 teams get to fight over Chris Archer or Dallas Keuchel or Buster Posey whoever. One of each of that tier of player gets dispersed to those 6-8 teams, but because those 6-8 teams gutted themselves to get a low salary, that one player doesn’t change anything. And also half those players bust because they were risky to begun with, thus being sent back to auction. Rinse and repeat. The year we had Greinke, Bumgarner, Price, and oh yeah, Shohei Ohtani, guess what? Four separate teams totaling $218 in salary. So if you’ve rebuilt down to $250 of cash to spend, you better: (a) hope there are four players like that at auction, (b) win two or three, if not all four, and (c) then hope the player actually pans out to be an impact player. Living the auction dream is scary shit.

I want very badly to know what the market was for a $50, starting at $52 to keep, Justin Verlander. At worst, he gets $15 of greed and costs $67. THAT. IS. NOTHING. He’s the 5th overall scorer right now, this year. He finished third last year. He finished 19th the year before and third a year earlier. I get that pitchers are fragile, old pitchers especially, but this dude will impact your team more than almost any other player. I continue to not understand why a guy like this is considered such a bad risk but a pitching prospect isn’t. JV’s a 99th percentile performer and he fetched… two good prospects (May, Groshans), a couple prospects that teams like HLR, TBD, and Long Ball scoop off waivers with regularity, and a draft pick. That’s it? I’m a dipshit for not submitting offers. Shame on me. I didn’t think I had the pieces. But I want to know if any “rebuilders” inquired here. Haddy? Did you get offers from the teams that have gutted their rosters down to $200? Why didn’t you engage with me on Trevor Story (was it the Matt Chapman thing, where cost control is only cool until the player is a stud, then it’s not sexy anymore) for Verlander? WHYYYYYY?!

I like Dustin May and all, but TINSTAAPP. I like Jordan Groshans too, but optimistically, he’s not scoring fantasy points until 2021. Maybe Nick Solak becomes Jeff McNeil or something, which is helpful but lacking real impact. A first round pick? What freakin’ ever.

If I’m Haddy, I’d rather just keep Verlander and run it back in 2020 and maybe 2021 and maybe even 2022, especially after already dumping Chris Sale. Cut freakin’ Jose Abreu‘s $70 salary and just keep Verlander. Or trade Abreu for half this same package. Easy. Sure, maybe you flip all the ones you just got for this type of guy later, but maybe not. Again, the list of guys who produce like JV is super slim. Bird in hand, etc. I’m not taking this package for Scherzer. I doubt HLR’s taking it for Arenado. Dan’s not taking it for Yelich or Gerrit Cole. Maybe May becomes Syndergaard 2.0, but cost controlled, and I look foolish. Except not really, because even if that happens, that’s not even remotely the most likely outcome. That’s dumb luck. If he ever, at any point, becomes Verlander right now, you basically hit the lottery. I’ll just leave this here:

Trade: The Process | Who’s Your Haddy?

The Process trades away

  • Bader, Harrison $3.04
  • Rocchio, Brayan (prospect)
  • 2021¬†Draft Pick, Round¬†2 (Who’s Your Haddy?)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Encarnaci√≥n, Edwin $50

Jordan’s Thoughts

Edwin was a great Mariner for three months hitting homers left and right. Now he is a New York Yankee on a playoff run in a easier stadium to hit homers in. He’s a huge asset and definitely a target to grab.

The Process is currently in 10th place, sitting 6-7 and matched up in a must win week 14. Adding Edwin right now makes all the sense in the world and might make the difference who knows.

Best part, in my opinion, is that Ferns here has options. Keeping Edwin at $50 isn’t outrageous. You have to spend the money,¬† he’s a quality star worth spending on. In two weeks, you can trade him again, I think a similar package in 10 days is available, perhaps the package is even better.

The draft pick has whatever value draft picks have. Brayan Rocchio is an 18-year-old short stop in the Indians system and FanGraphs rates his hit tool at a 60 FV. That’s pretty. He’s currently doing alright in low-A ball and already on the top 100 list (currently 80).

Harrison Bader being in this deal is a punt from Ferns. Haddy is clearly wondering if there’s anything there yet. Bader’s age 25 season so far has been pretty bad. .296 wOBA and 82 wRC+ shows a cold start for the 2019 season. He’s cost controlled, not expensive and last year he was pretty good. Last year his BABIP was .358, this year its .261. Bader who’s pretty quick, probably settles in most years closer to the former number. He’s walking more, striking out slightly less than last year. Things look like a huge buy low guy. But, overall the ceiling here seems pretty low. He’s a CF, that fantasy wise probably tops out in the 10-12 spot, probably more typically in the 16-20 spot. He’s nice to have, value wise, but he needs to be more like last year, less like this year.

For the Haddy’s who are selling, this deal is fine. I know he was shopped around and if this was the the best package for Edwin, sure fine. It seems light, but its not awful. I like what Ferns is doing here, even though he’s playing me this week, don’t hate what Haddy did, seems like a solid trade for both parties.

BAILEY’s Thoughts

I like this trade for both teams. I wanted Edwin myself, but one glance at my roster construction tells you I just didn’t have much need for a 1Bman. So mostly, those negotiations were my way of getting Haddy to talk to me. We chatted, it was fun, so I didn’t make a trade but still feel like a winner.

For The Process, I like the aggressiveness. Edwin is clearly an awesome hitter with a track record of mashing for the better part of a decade. Could he suddenly hit the brick wall of age and suck? Sure. But right now he’s a lock for 30+, approaching 40 homers, and even with the juiced ball, those guys don’t grow on trees. His salary is high, but Ferns has strategically spent four years whittling down his budget to nothing, so he very easily has the option to keep Edwin at $52+ next year. I’m a big believer that worrying about a player’s salary is a waste of time. Lock in the points, worry about the stupid budget stuff later. There’s not a payout for having a $200 roster. And if this is just a short term move for Ferns to try and push into the playoffs, that’s cool too. If you make the playoffs, you put your $150 buy-in back in your pocket. If you don’t, you get a fighting chance at $75 or, if you’re really bad, a shot at a high draft pick. I’d much rather make a trade and gamble that I win back $150 of actual, real life cash than sit idly by for either of the other two prizes. I don’t think the price was that high.

I like Bryan Rocchio as a prospect. He was a guy I was targeting in our minors draft. He was expendable for Ferns though but should be a nice piece for Haddy by the time his retooled team is ready to compete again in 2023. Just kidding, Haddy! You won’t be ready to compete again until 2025.

Harrison Bader and the pick, meanwhile, are pretty blah. Hader will likely get just the minimum $2 raise to $5. I think given his prospect pedigree and that he’s immune to greed, that’s keepable into 2020. No risk there. I think there’s even a decent chance that Haddy opens up center field by trading Mike Trout to TBD for whichever prospects they scooped off waivers this morning, at which point, boom!, Bader is a starting CF in Dynasty Grinders.

Greed Vote 2018

TLDR: Greed Vote Results Sheet

News broke live on the podcast! 16 greed votes are in. Thus we can now announce the changes that have already been made in the Fantrax system. you can see in the link at the top how your and other teams fared.

Some highlights: Beach Bum was the only team to have two or less players greed. Both Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabetesus and Trumpa Loompas had eight different players greeded for at least one auction dollar.

National League MVP Christian Yelich unsurprisingly grabbed 13 greed votes. Somewhat surprisingly one of the top finishers in the American League MVP race Jose Ramirez got just 10 greed votes.

Freddie Freeman got 11 votes. Javier Baez, Nick Castellanos, Charlie Blackmon got 9 votes. 80 players in total got raises. 36 of those 80 however got just one vote for one auction dollar.

With the greed vote done, 2019 auction values are now set. It should remove some of the shroud hovering over some players heading into next year’s auction draft.