Trade: Senior Squids | The Process

Senior Squids trades away:

The Process trades away:

  • SS Jeter Downs (ML)
  • 2B/SS Jonathan Schoop ($17)
  • 1B/2B/3B/SS/LF Niko Goodrum ($5)

Jordan’s thoughts: Ketel Marte is projected to be a ~800 point 2B/SS with a 1.27 PPPA. That’s pretty great. He’s only $9, he’s a steal. Jon Schoop plays the same positions, has a 1.24 PPPA. So they’re the same. He costs $8 more. So..ummm…yeah.  Niko Goodrum was trashed on the podcast enough, but I’ll just say that finding a 1 PPPA player is basically replacement level. Sure he plays a lot and can fit into a few positions, there’s some value there. Not much.

Jeter Downs is a 45+ rated prospect that was ranked 7th in the Reds organization. Okay.

Rich Hill for under $20 is a nice value pitcher. He’s projected for something like 800-900 points. Now I realize he’s not without risk. But, all pitchers have built in risk. Even if you get just 10-15 Rich Hill starts, he’s easily worth $19.

This trade confuses me. In a vacuum I love this trade for The Process. In the context of these teams with their current situation…well The Process traded away spare parts that had little or no value for two valuable pieces.

For Senior Squids, he’s won some trades recently, this one baffles me.

Andrew’s thoughts: If I were just ranking the individual players in this trade, including salaries and all, for me it’d go: Marte, Hill, Schoop, Goodrum, Downs. If not for his amazing 2017 that now looks flukey, I’d bump Schoop down below Goodrum.

I guess what I’m saying is, I like this for The Process. I really like Ketel Marte for some reason I can’t put my finger on. Take the projections with a grain of salt if you must, but Steamer has Marte scoring 165.4 more points than Goodrum next year. And I’m kinda buying that, actually. I get that Goodrum is a few bucks cheaper and has three extra positions, but I’d prefer points over positions. Marte was at one time a pretty legitimate prospect. There’s some pedigree here. Goodrum just sort of came from nowhere. Other than a pretty good hard hit rate, I see nothing in Goodrum’s profile that suggests to me he’s anything more than a guy who may play a lot and accumulate stats inefficiently. A utility guy, basically. Oh, and Marte’s hard hit rate was only 0.6% lower than Goodrum’s, so it’s not like there’s even a gap in that one specific data point.

Dick Mountain, meanwhile, is old and fragile and risky, but he’s good as long as he pitches. His skills aren’t in question and if he gives you another 130 inning season for $19, you should be very happy. I’d rather gamble on his health than gamble on Schoop actually being any good, which I think is very much up for debate considering every year of his career sans 2017.

2016 Auction Review – Betternamelater

Betternamelater

bnl

The winner for Clayton Kershaw was always going to be a contender. As I’ve stated before and again. He’s almost guaranteed to be a value. I had him realistically rated as high as $150. Getting him for $117 hurts in some ways, but the team with a better name in the works, made out like bandits on a few auctions.

Hitting – Good

Manny Machado is a star in this league. Edwin Encarnacion is a fantasy star, his defense doesn’t play here. Carlos Gonzalez is still in Colorado, and even if he was not, he’s still a near lock for top five in left field. I’m higher on Adam Eaton and Curtis Granderson, lower on Ketel Marte and Dee Gordon. It will probably even out. Are we relying on Billy Butler to be a staple at the second utility spot here? Hmm. There is a lotto like about this line up, stealing Brandon Belt for $14 seems like a great buy, Keith Law probably still agrees.

Pitching – Great

Kershaw is the best player in the league. Danny Salazar, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz are all really good and interesting. I consider them all tier 2 pitchers, but if they all ended up in tier one at the end of the season I will not be surprised. I do not love Alex Wood, but between him and Nathan Eovaldi you have a solid number five and I’d be okay with Jorge De La Rosa as my sixth when he’s out of Colorado. Weeks when Kershaw pitches twice, there’s not many pitching staffs that will out-duel. He’s just so damn good. The bullpen may or may not hold this staff back. Hector Rondon has a lot of good outings, and some seriously bad ones. Joaquin Benoit is pitching in Seattle, but currently does not have a secured role.

Depth – Alright

The depth here is set to be alright. The positional flexibility plays well here. There’s no backup 2b or SS here. How many plate appearances will be left on the cutting room floor, or only slightly better, left at replacement level. Probably too many. But that could be easily patched. There is a good chance a few of these guys become legit starters as well.

Why 2016 would be bad… 

May the good lord forbid, but if Kershaw gets hurt. I mean I don’t even know what else to write. For any team if 22% of their budget was hurt early in the season for the whole season they would be easy choice as sunk. Same problem lies here. For the sake of the argument say the young three guys behind him hold up the pitching staff. Well it gets bad if Gonzalez and Granderson under perform. If Edwin Encarnacion goes missing, or worse, Machado has knee issues.

Why 2016 would be good… 

Kershaw doesn’t even have to repeat 2015, just has to be close. Salazar, Stroman and Matz all get to 25+ starts as at least tier 2 guys. Machado remains awesome, the hitters all hit above their floors and this team should be pretty solid. The question marks are probably personal preference, but it is hard to argue against he value on almost all the buys. But it hinges on, well…