Wil Myers was once traded for Bryce Harper. Now he’s a throw away deal for a useless draft pick. Wil Myers still squares up balls, but the exit velocity is below average. I think Wil Myers is probably what he is, is best asset to any team now is that he qualifies for most positions. Solid depth piece. Marshall Law won’t miss him, but didn’t gain much for giving him away.
Simply by getting something for a $59 Jake Arrieta, I will congratulate Marshall Law as the winner of this trade.
I had personally been interested in Arrieta as a depth piece, but I just couldn’t muster up much of an offer. He’s not particularly good anymore (4.95 FIP), he’s too expensive to keep or re-trade, and his playoff match-ups aren’t even favorable (@ CIN, vs. BOS and ATL). But still, he logs innings and if he’s your 9th or 10th starting pitcher, which he is for HLR, then he’s fine as a rental that you just hope you never really have to use and then just cut when the time comes. HLR is savvy enough picking up prospects that the 4th rounder doesn’t matter and Corbin Martin is out with Tommy John, so he’s going to miss all of 2020 and probably the early part of 2021. Maybe there’s a rotation spot for him when he returns, maybe not. Maybe he returns without any diminished skills, maybe not.
I don’t think Marshall Law was going to do better than this. It’s splitting hairs, maybe, because perhaps someone offers a non-broken prospect that you think is more interesting.
The most interesting part of this trade is what Arrieta goes for at auction after he’s inevitably cut, and that really has nothing to do with the trade. With the rule changes, the auction should be deeper than in prior years. But owners simply don’t drop good starting pitchers. So as usual, there should be a bunch of teams clamoring for pitching. Is Arrieta a $35-40 pitcher at auction simply because teams need arms and have too much cash to spend? It wouldn’t surprise me.
OK, I’ll go first this time. Haddy is clearly playing for 2020 (or 2021 if I’m being respectful and non apologetic), so I don’t really get the thrill of Murphy. Maybe he flips him, maybe he keeps him. Murphy is a former HLR Legend, as we all know, and after a slow start to the year, he’s been quite good in recent months. I’m not sure his thumb is all the way healed, which makes his last few months even more impressive. Murphy at $26 next year as a 35 year old seems OK, but with more injuries piling up, it’s very easy to see him as a frustrating asset moving forward. $26 isn’t a lot, and Andjuar has his flaws (lack of walks and potential playing time), but I think I rather take my shot on the youngster with the age and salary on his side.
All the prospects involved in this deal have taken a value hit from beginning of season until now. Adams is the rawest/athletic of the bunch, so his struggles this year seem least problematic. Adams for Tirso seems fine and fair as is, not a huge difference between the two at the moment. Both are expected to add more power over the years and seem like solid “buy lows”, so that aspect of the deal seems like a challenge trade for both teams here. Jhon Torres was a pop up prospect last year who excelled in Rookie ball and has done nothing this year. He’s the closest of the 3 to being nothing, and he’s sprinting to that at the moment.
I debated reading Hustle’s take first, just to figure out who these prospects are. But, because of comments like this:
I feel like I have set the bar so very high. To course correct, I’ll mail this one in. It seems like people in this trade, swapped assets with each other that they were over and tired of looking at.
So, who wins the trade? Well both of them do of course because they got to hang out and talk shop for a solid relationship building minute and get something done.
So last year Kyle Freeland was really good. Like really really good. This year he has been bad enough to get demoted back to the minor leagues. Last year he limited HR/9 to 0.76, and this year its at 2.43. That’s really bad. Seems a little fluky, but it’s a problem. His walk rate is up too, but this seems all fixable.
These are the kinds of deals I love seeing teams like Marshall Law making. You see an asset available. He’s covered in mud. Value might be low, might not ever recover. But, the best prospect is a young player who has already had success the majors in my opinion. Even if Freeland is just bad for the rest of time, two draft picks costs nothing to take a chance at potentially getting a above average starting pitcher.
For TBD, you like getting draft picks for players that are potential cuts. When you’re on top of the standings, the roster crunch doesn’t allow you to sit on players who have faded. So getting some value from a team that likely isn’t a threat to you this year is a win win.
Hustle’s Toxico $.02
Going to try and do that thing where I don’t read the review above first.
Trade Seems Fine (TM). It’s not super exciting for either party, which means it’s a reasonable trade. I would never trade a bunch for a non exciting Rockies pitcher, but this wasn’t a bunch. The Rockies thought Kyle Freeland was so bad, even by their standards, that he had to go down to AAA after a pretty stellar 2018. In AAA, Freeland has continued to be bad. I think one pick should probably have been enough to get this done, but this is nitpicking. If I’m throwing darts at back end starters, I rather use just one pick or move or move on to a different starter. I doubt there was a bidding war for Freeland, and I doubt TBD doesn’t jump on the opportunity to acquire a free pick and pick up a new green flag guy. If Marshall is optimistic on Freeland more than just a dart throw, then adding in a low end pick seems more than fine to do. If Freeland turns it around, he seems like a great under $10 pitcher keep. Either way, I like this trade for both teams.
AT THIS POINT, I HAVE DECIDED TO READ JORDAN’S REVIEW.
I like Jordan’s review better than mine. He used more numbers. Also, I noticed I wrote “toxico” instead of “toxic”. I kind of like toxico more now. Let me know your thoughts.
I’m not above reviewing my own trades. Andrew Cashner has been ridiculously good over the last 60 days to the tune of being a 30 point per start starter for the Baltimore Orioles. Any starting pitcher under $10 to keep is worth keeping.
So why do this trade? Well at the time I needed roster spots, Had 12 other starting pitchers and its Andrew Cashner. He’s over performing his outcomes and has a history of getting hot before cooling off. I held onto him for two months and almost cut him a few times, but never really needed or wanted to start him in a fantasy week, even though I should have.
For Ryan this trade makes sense. Two low draft picks aren’t a ton of value for a starting pitcher. Cashner has value as your 6-7th guy even beyond this year. You don’t want a staff full of Cashners, but having one makes sense when the cost is nominal.
I’m not surprised that Jordan was able to find a trade partner for Andrew Cashner quicker than he was for Steven Matz. Relievers just aren’t that valuable in this league.
Andrew’s thoughts: I like this one for Marshall Law. Zack Godley has been pretty awful this year, but was projected to be a top-60 starting pitcher coming into the year. He’s been very good for stretches in the past. He’ll start at $12 to keep, so there’s potential future value here too. And the cost was… basically nothing. Pretty good risk/reward deal. If you’re clinging to 4th rounders when offered Godleys, regardless of where you are on the contention cycle, you’re probably doing it wrong.
Kudos to Marshall for joining the league, surveying the landscape, and quickly positioning his team to compete. Just goes to show what can be accomplished when one puts their mind to it.
For Hustle, this is whatever. Godley had been squeezed off his roster and sometimes when you’re a top team and have too many good players, you just have to take what you can get. A 4th rounder beats cutting a guy for nothing.
Andrew’s thoughts: I do not know if either of these players would have been kept or cut by their respective teams. Only Senior Squids truly knows that. Either way, here they are now, a bench hitter and a relief pitcher, traded for one another. And quite honestly, I’m riveted.
I think both teams are winners here, because both teams got to experience the magnificent rush of completing a trade.
Jordan’s thoughts: The moment Matt Adams signed with Washington and was no longer an option for the next COLORADO ROCKIES 1B, I stopped caring about him.
Andrew’s thoughts: I love this trade for Marshall Law so, so much. It reminds me of the real-life Nationals/Rays/Padres trade for Trea Turner, where the Nats basically crashed a trade between the Rays and Padres and came away with the most appealing talent. Marshall gave up what I see as four lukewarm assets (Taveras seems like a low power guy whose speed doesn’t matter as much in our scoring; the other three pieces are pure lotto tickets) to get back two young, cheap impact pieces in Nimmo and Winker and a decent flier on Lamet, who was solid in 2017 before requiring Tommy John. Honestly, I’d rather have Nimmo or Winker alone than Bumgarner at $60 to keep or the package WBFD received.
For WBFD though, I get it. At $60, Bumgarner was a very likely cut as we’ve seen his skills and health begin to descend, and now there are even rumors he may be traded out of his hugely favorable home park. Steamer projections have Bumgarner as the 17th highest scoring pitcher for 2019, but that honestly seems a little rich to me. I’m just a little surprised he didn’t get the Nimmo/Winker package here. But if you’re going to cut a guy anyway, getting four zero-cost pieces like this is clearly better long-term.
And as for We Talk Fantasy Sports, well, I applaud the continued aggressive addition to try and compete in 2019. First it was Corey Kluber, then Dallas Keuchel, now Bumgarner. Still, while their pitching is very, very much improved, I look at that offense and wonder if it can possibly keep up. Losing Nimmo and Winker gives them two pretty big starting hitting holes, in my opinion, and Bumgarner might need to be prime Mad-Bum just to offset that.
Jordan’s thoughts: My goal here is to be the creme filling in this turd sandwich of a trade review. Obviously I have a hard on for Jesse Winker who I drafted with my first round pick back in our first minor league draft. He seems good now and the Reds let Billy Hamilton go.
I agree that projections have soured on Madison Bumgarner and that is not completely hard to understand. However, I’ll disagree with with figurative “buns” and say that Bumgarner at $60 is more than fair and particularly attractive. I think if you’re on top and have a salary crunch, perhaps you have a different perspective on market value.
I love the trade for Marshall Law and We Talk Fantasy Sports here. Marshall Law showing how a rebuild in this league should work. You build a core with current rising talent vs sacking a whole number of seasons for a wish and a hope. Which is what I think the WBFDs has done here. I don’t mind turning MadBum into a bunch of pieces. But the draft picks aren’t helping you soon, and the prospects are okay. Perhaps you get a good pitcher and a decent outfielder out of it in a season or two and perhaps those prospects turn into something too. But, odds are actually against you.
I think with any game you want to position yourself to win and a key step is identifying your win condition(s). WTFS appears to have found theirs with identifying needing a front line starter to help sway weeks in a head-to-head format. It works. ML identified needing to acquire useful assets while still acquiring points. Say these guys blossom, and you’re a piece or two away, they have assets they could push the chips in. It can work. WBFD identified needing to wait another three years. Has that worked ever?
Hustle’s Toxic $0.02: Well this was a super fun trade. I think in all my years of playing fantasy sports I’ve seen very few if any other legit three way trades. So for that, I applaud the ability to pull it off. I am truly inspired.
For WFBD: I think Gaut did OK here if you subscribe to the notion that Bumgarner is in a big decline. Streamer projects a near 4 ERA, FIP, and XFIP for Bumgarner in 2019 which makes a $60 investment in that subpar to say the least. If Bumgarner gets traded those numbers would have to be worse, unless its to the Astros. If Bumgarner is the guy he is projected to be, then getting a couple pieces for him seems fine. Gaut will have $60 to spend on Mike Leake and Mike Leake accessories in the auction as well as a couple neat picks. I’m not a fan of Taveras (as I stated in the first Taveras deal this offseason), seems like a long shot in being better than a replacement level OF here. I do think I like Bukauskas better than most so thats cool too. Getting some assets for a guy who should be borderline be cut based on performance seems like a good idea. If Bumgarner bounces back, Gaut may wonder if he could have gotten a bit more.
For WTFS: As Bailey stated, Keith’s rotation is much improved. Even if Bumgarner isn’t peak he’s still startable almost every time out. The team’s rotation went from arguably worst to above average through a course of trades this offseason, so that is indeed commendable. The offense is a work in progress and will be more difficult to fill after giving away two cheap promising OFers. Choo and Blackmon are nice OFers to have, but after that it kinda falls off. 1b, 3b, one OF and 2 UTIL spots have to be occupied by Sano, Shaw, Desmond, Happ, Calhoun, I’m not sure who the next best hitter is after these 5. Having these guys as starters in your lineup seems incredibly risky since 4/5 of them were a minus at their position last year. Keith will have to find someway to supplant this either by trade or auction. This team at least had a direction now and with proper attention could push for a playoff spot.
For ML: There’s a lot to like here. Winker could potentially be the best asset in the whole trade. as a $3 cost controlled OF batting near the top of the Reds lineup. If las year is any indication he’s a very solid OF to have and if his power trends up he’s potentially a beast. I think Nimmo was obviously tremendously underrated going into last season and was one of the best pickups of the year, but I think he could be a tad overrated in 2019. That being said, he seems like he has the floor of being perfectly acceptable OF depth, which is valuable. I think getting the Lamet flier is the perfect thing a rebuilding team should be doing, ad as a 3rd piece of a deal, seems great. I think these 3 pieces are probably better than a 1/2 rounder and Bukauskas, not a guarantee, but I love the odds.