Is It Baseball Season Yet? Episode Four – Happy Birthday Chris

  • Episode Notes
    • 30 listens last week, are we rich yet?
  • Winter Meetings
    • Has Bryce Harper signed yet?
    • McCutchen to the Phillies
    • Nova to the White Sox 🙁
    • Openers for Days
      • Charlie Morton to Rays
      • More teams talking about openers
    • Realmuto!
  • Trades
    • Pending Trades…why!?
    • Three ways to paradise
      • We Talk Fantasy Sports gets:
      • Marshall Law gets:
      • The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses gets:
        • SP J.B. Bukauskas
        • CF Leody Taveras
        • 2019 1st Round Pick
        • 2019 2nd Round Pick
    • Why do I have so many Logan Allen DMs?
  • Best value player who’s costing more than $75 (most likely to get cut?)
    • Kershaw 123
    • Bryce 115
    • Trout 101
    • Sale 97
    • Goldy 94
    • Max 92
    • Kluber 88
    • Correa 87
    • Syndergaard 86
    • Rizzo 81
    • Archer 81
    • Bryant 81
    • Machado 78
    • Giancarlo 78
    • Cole 77
    • Carrasco 77
    • Arenado 75
  • Mailbag
    • Kyle Noseworthy [5:33 PM]
    • bailey [6:15 PM]
      • The Reds got Tanner Roark. Are they now the World Series favorites?
    • kodiak_chris [6:40 PM]
      • What moves do you think the KODIAKS need to make to be competitive and playoff bound. Is there any chance or stear into the rebuild
    • nosey_kyle [6:26 PM]
      • 2019 Dy Nasty, do we see new blood in playoffs?

Trade: Marshall Law | We Talk Fantasy Sports | The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses

We Talk Fantasy Sports gets:
SP Madison Bumgarner ($60)

Marshall Law gets:
LF/CF/RF Brandon Nimmo ($9)
LF/RF Jesse Winker ($3)
SP Dinelson Lamet ($3)

The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses gets:
SP J.B. Bukauskas
CF Leody Taveras
2019 1st Round Pick
2019 2nd Round Pick

Andrew’s thoughts: I love this trade for Marshall Law so, so much. It reminds me of the real-life Nationals/Rays/Padres trade for Trea Turner, where the Nats basically crashed a trade between the Rays and Padres and came away with the most appealing talent. Marshall gave up what I see as four lukewarm assets (Taveras seems like a low power guy whose speed doesn’t matter as much in our scoring; the other three pieces are pure lotto tickets) to get back two young, cheap impact pieces in Nimmo and Winker and a decent flier on Lamet, who was solid in 2017 before requiring Tommy John. Honestly, I’d rather have Nimmo or Winker alone than Bumgarner at $60 to keep or the package WBFD received.

For WBFD though, I get it. At $60, Bumgarner was a very likely cut as we’ve seen his skills and health begin to descend, and now there are even rumors he may be traded out of his hugely favorable home park. Steamer projections have Bumgarner as the 17th highest scoring pitcher for 2019, but that honestly seems a little rich to me. I’m just a little surprised he didn’t get the Nimmo/Winker package here. But if you’re going to cut a guy anyway, getting four zero-cost pieces like this is clearly better long-term.

And as for We Talk Fantasy Sports, well, I applaud the continued aggressive addition to try and compete in 2019. First it was Corey Kluber, then Dallas Keuchel, now Bumgarner. Still, while their pitching is very, very much improved, I look at that offense and wonder if it can possibly keep up. Losing Nimmo and Winker gives them two pretty big starting hitting holes, in my opinion, and Bumgarner might need to be prime Mad-Bum just to offset that.

Jordan’s thoughts:  My goal here is to be the creme filling in this turd sandwich of a trade review. Obviously I have a hard on for Jesse Winker who I drafted with my first round pick back in our first minor league draft. He seems good now and the Reds let Billy Hamilton go.

I agree that projections have soured on Madison Bumgarner and that is not completely hard to understand. However, I’ll disagree with with figurative “buns” and say that Bumgarner at $60 is more than fair and particularly attractive. I think if you’re on top and have a salary crunch, perhaps you have a different perspective on market value.  

I love the trade for Marshall Law and We Talk Fantasy Sports here. Marshall Law showing how a rebuild in this league should work. You build a core with current rising talent vs sacking a whole number of seasons for a wish and a hope. Which is what I think the WBFDs has done here. I don’t mind turning MadBum into a bunch of pieces. But the draft picks aren’t helping you soon, and the prospects are okay. Perhaps you get a good pitcher and a decent outfielder out of it in a season or two and perhaps those prospects turn into something too. But, odds are actually against you.

I think with any game you want to position yourself to win and a key step is identifying your win condition(s). WTFS appears to have found theirs with identifying needing a front line starter to help sway weeks in a head-to-head format. It works. ML identified needing to acquire useful assets while still acquiring points. Say these guys blossom, and you’re a piece or two away, they have assets they could push the chips in. It can work. WBFD identified needing to wait another three years. Has that worked ever?

Hustle’s Toxic $0.02:  Well this was a super fun trade. I think in all my years of playing fantasy sports I’ve seen very few if any other legit three way trades. So for that, I applaud the ability to pull it off. I am truly inspired.

For WFBD:  I think Gaut did OK here if you subscribe to the notion that Bumgarner is in a big decline. Streamer projects a near 4 ERA, FIP, and XFIP for Bumgarner in 2019 which makes a $60 investment in that subpar to say the least.  If Bumgarner gets traded those numbers would have to be worse, unless its to the Astros.  If Bumgarner is the guy he is projected to be, then getting a couple pieces for him seems fine.  Gaut will  have $60 to spend on Mike Leake and Mike Leake accessories in the auction as well as a couple neat picks.   I’m not a fan of Taveras (as I stated in the first Taveras deal this offseason), seems like a long shot in being better than a replacement level OF here.  I do think I like Bukauskas better than most so thats cool too.  Getting some assets for a guy who should be borderline be cut based on performance seems like a good idea.  If Bumgarner bounces back, Gaut may wonder if he could have gotten a bit more.

For WTFS: As Bailey stated, Keith’s rotation is much improved. Even if Bumgarner isn’t peak he’s still startable almost every time out. The team’s rotation went from arguably worst to above average through a course of trades this offseason, so that is indeed commendable. The offense is a work in progress and will be more difficult to fill after giving away two cheap promising OFers. Choo and Blackmon are nice OFers to have, but after that it kinda falls off.  1b, 3b, one OF and 2 UTIL spots have to be occupied by Sano, Shaw, Desmond, Happ, Calhoun, I’m not sure who the next best hitter is after these 5.  Having these guys as starters in your lineup seems incredibly risky since 4/5 of them were a minus at their position last year. Keith will have to find someway to supplant this either by trade or auction. This team at least had a direction now and with proper attention could push for a playoff spot.

For ML: There’s a lot to like here.  Winker could potentially be the best asset in the whole trade. as a $3 cost controlled OF batting near the top of the Reds lineup.  If las year is any indication he’s a very solid OF to have and if his power trends up he’s potentially a beast. I think Nimmo was obviously tremendously underrated going into last season and was one of the best pickups of the year, but I think he could be a tad overrated in 2019. That being said, he seems like he has the floor of being perfectly acceptable OF depth, which is valuable.  I think getting the Lamet flier is the perfect thing a rebuilding team should be doing, ad as a 3rd piece of a deal, seems great. I think these 3 pieces are probably better than a 1/2 rounder and Bukauskas, not a guarantee, but I love the odds.

Trade: Marshall Law | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Marshall Law trades away
SP Logan Allen

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away
2019 2nd Round Pick
LF/CF/RF DJ Peters

Andrew’s thoughts: Wow, huge trade here to land a second round pick for Marshall Law. I’m fully inspired by this one.

Updated 9:51 AM 12/10/2018

Jordan’s thoughts: So inspired. 

Trade: Marshall Law | Evil Otters

Marshall Law trades away

OF Alex Verdugo ($303 $3.03)
2B/3B/SS Javier Baez ($20)

Evil Otters trades away

SS Francisco Lindor ($57)

Jordan’s thoughts: I like how this occurs during the greed process. Not waiting a day or two on a cold day in December to get this trade done just to see i the values of these players change at all. I’m not saying that $5-12 changes this deal at all. It probably does not.

Anyway Lindor and Baez were both really good last year. That’s no surprise to anyone. Projections both have them regressing somewhat, Baez more so. I do not think there’s a lot of reason to be low on either player. I think ultimately you rather have Lindor, but at three times the (pre-greed) cost? Yeah probably.

Alex Verdugo does swing it a bit. He hit amazing last year in AAA. Which was good for zero points. His production for the Dodgers was sparse and not fantasy relevant. I don’t know if he finds playing time next year, and if he doesn’t. He just gets more expensive for nothing. Potentially sure, he gets traded or injuries create opportunity. He’s a nice piece. That doesn’t really move the needle a lot. I’ll eat my crow if he jumps for 1000 points next year.

Huge win for Marshall Law in my book here.

 

 

Hustles Toxic $.02  I think this trade is fine for both teams. I’m not nose deep into everyone’s budget but I cant imagine Kyle was scraping too hard for budget this year .. even with recent trades. I’d rather have the better player, which is Lindor here. I think Verdugo’s low upside doesn’t really cover the ground.  My guess is also that Baez gets greeded a bit more than Lindor (unfortunately), which might make the price difference a little less attractive.  I think Kyle should have probably waited a day, seen what Baez went up to and leveraged that somehow.  In the end, it’s probably not a big deal and this trade is reasonable.  I personally think Baez is due for a giant regression, but thats more of a testament to the amazing year he had than think he’s bad or anything.