Trade: Long Ball to LF | Marshall Law

Marshall Law trades away
SP Dinelson Lamet ($5; cost controlled)
RF Misael Urbina (prospect)
1B Pavin Smith (prospect)

Long Ball to LF trades away
SP Aaron Nola ($38)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

On the surface this trade looks lopsided. Aaron Nola is just 26-years-old, Steamer projects him as a top-15 overall pitcher in 2020, and he has consecutive 1,000+ point seasons on his resume. He checks every box as a top Dynasty Grinders asset (more on this in a moment). On the other side, there are two blah prospects and a spring training hype guy coming off Tommy John surgery who still carries a fair amount of reliever risk. This looks to be in favor of Marshall Law.

I do think it’s key to note the $33 savings here. This trade got Long Ball under $500 and that savings likely buys him at least another year of Kenta Maeda ($30), Michael Brantley ($29), or one of his higher priced pieces like Josh Donaldson ($77) or Zack Greinke ($67) that he’s been shopping. Those guys don’t show up in the Trade Accepted email, but they were no doubt a factor. My guess is, since Long Ball had listed all those guys on his trade block, there was zero interest across the board (because players that have salaries have cooties), so he ultimately sold whichever guy actually brought something back and that happened to be Nola. I’d argue the only “something” in this deal is Lamet, as the two prospects seem fairly disinteresting to me. Urbina is fine and has some long-term upside, Smith seems boring as a 1B-only with only 50 grade power. Whatever. It continuously blows my mind that upper tier players are traded in this league for churn-able prospects. Long Ball couldn’t get Vidal Brujan? Jazz Chisholm? As a rule of thumb, if a sub-$40 1,000 point player is traded, the prospects involved should really be guys Jordan has heard of before. Also, I probably would’ve rather just cut Maeda or Greinke or Brantley and kept Nola and missed out on Lamet. But the sum of Lamet plus whichever one of those guys would’ve been cut is probably close enough to Nola’s 2020 production to at least make the logical leap here.

I guess I’m mainly confused as to why a package headlined by Lamet and filled out by two prospects outside the top-250 was really the high offer.

Given Nola’s age, cost, and resume, he should’ve been coveted by literally every team, even the perpetual tankers. He was on the block publicly, so it’s not like his availability wasn’t known. I personally did not inquire on Nola, mainly because I’m sitting at $500 in keepers and The Bundle‚ĄĘ has ruined my mobility (weird how those rule changes that were met with such disgust ultimately did my team no favors), but I even sort of regret it now seeing this price. I could’ve probably afforded to punt a hitter to make room if push came to shove. If Long Ball waited until after auction, I would’ve probably thrown any prospects and picks he wanted at Nola and that terrifying $38 salary. Oh well.

How many other teams sat on the sidelines here? I guess people assumed the price would be too high and the mere thought of trading relevant prospects is unfathomable, but Urbina and Smith seem like fringe prospects at best right now. TBD and HLR will no doubt pick up far superior prospects for free throughout the season. Marshall will easily pick up better or comparable prospects to replace these guys himself. Even if Lamet meets his recent hype, Nola’s still likely to outscore him in 2020 and even teams like Senior Squids and We Talk Fantasy Sports and Who’s Your Haddy, who don’t intend to compete in the next half decade, should have been lining up here and could have probably beat this offer quite handily. You’re not getting a better asset than Nola at auction, so if that’s your game plan, good luck trying. If you were clinging to legitimate prospects out of fear of adding a whopping $38 in salary, well… whoops. And if you were out on Nola because you’re punting 2020, I guess I’m confused what the game plan is for 2021+ when you have no established good players in place when your prospects theoretically start getting promoted. The Bundle‚ĄĘ made Aaron Nola available for a low price and still no one with salary room took advantage? Hmm…

Overall, I like this deal for Marshall Law. If Lamet pans out, it probably buys Long Ball an extra player this year and next, maybe one more beyond that. For now I’ll gladly take the Nola side though.

Trade: Organized Chaos | Marshall Law

Marshall Law trades away
RP Alex Reyes ($7, cost controlled)
CF Austin Hays $9

Organized Chaos trades away
2020 3rd round pick
SP Ryan Rolison (“prospect”)
1B Grant Lavigne (“prospect”)
1B Pavin Smith (“prospect”)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

Organized Chaos gets two players that seemingly aren’t much individually but become much more impressive when you add their made up Fantrax projected points totals together and Marshall Law gets a grab bag of random 1Bman prospects you might have heard of before, a Rockies pitcher, and a coveted 3rd round pick. Seems like a fine trade to me. It does kind of feel like Marshall probably should’ve sent a little something extra back the other way, maybe a 4th round pick or something of that nature.

A Bundle of Braves.

THE FOUNDATION trades:                                     

2B- Ozzie Albies                                      

RP- Justus Sheffield (AAA)                                           

2020 2nd round pick 

ORGANIZED CHAOS trades:

SP- Frankie Montas

LF- Kyle Schwarber

2020 4th round pick

Yesterday I commented on how diffiult it was to review my own trade. Today, I again tried to ask, “why would he do that,” and see both sides of the deal, but it was easier to form a solid opinion on this¬† deal.¬†

The Foundation – Jordan does this deal to get¬† Frankie Montas, who has been very productive this year averaging 33.2 points per game. He will step in as The Foundation’s best pitcher when Hyun-Jin Ryu finds his way back to the injured list.¬† I personally don’t think Montas has the talent to maintain this level of play, but Im wrong about players all the time. His numbers suggest there may be some regression coming, but nothing that Jordan will lose sleep over. Even with some regression, Montas should be an above average starting pitcher and a good acquistion to the¬† Foundation.¬†

The Foundation also adds Kyle Schwarber. The numbers on the back of Schwarber’s baseball card are kind of ugly. He also has a history of sitting against lefthanders. With all that said, a decent eye and the power he is known for has carried him to a 5.15ppg average making him a decent LF option for the Foundation, who just lost LF Andrew McCutchen for the year. His $36 price tag puts him on the cut bubble, but Jordan can worry about that later.¬†¬†

ORGANZIED CHAOS- Why would he do this? It’s either Ozzie Albies, or the desire to own the enitre Braves infield. Im not sure which Ozzie Albies Coach Swinson is actually getting here. Is it the man-child from the first half of last year, or the kid who is hitting .259/.318/.403 for the year?¬† Grinders member Keith Lott of We Talk Fantasy Sports has a pretty strong opinion of Albies¬† https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” data-wplink-url-error=”true”>here. Im not that quick to write off¬† a 22 year old with a once rated 70 hit tool but Im not sure he does enough other things to be the true fantasy star some people believe he still could be.¬†

Chaos gets Justus Sheffield in the deal. I truely ask “why did he do that?” Sheffield has a devestating slider, but not much after that.¬† He’s a top 100 prospect, in mulitlpe locations, but without significant improvement I cant see him having alot of¬† success unless it’s in relief. Im afraid this might be a case of Coach Swinson trusting the lists, without additional homework.¬†

Chaos got a 2nd rounder for a 4th rounder in this deal. It helps balance things a little. 

SO WHO WON THE DEAL? 

Jordan preaches winning now, and traded Albies’ potential (whatever it may be), for an above average starting pitcher and a useful LF. Coach gets a young 2B, and almost a monopoly of the Atlanta infield.¬† Anyway I fernslice it, I prefer The Foundation’s side by a good bit.

 

You’re Welcome

THE PROCESS trades:                                     

SS- Dansby Swanson                                      

SP- Tyler Skagg                                                 

1B- Pavin Smith (A+)                                      

OF- Lazaro Armenteros (A+)

ORGANIZED CHAOS trades:

 SP- Matt Strahm

  2B/SS- Addison Russell

1B- THE Christian Walker

It’s difficult to review your own trade. You obviously made the deal to get something you want and are at least satisfied with the results. I have been know, in the past,¬† to decline trade offers with the question “why would I do that?” So for this trade review we will ask a similar question, “why would¬† they do that?”

THE PROCESS – I wanted Matt Strahm. Yes, he costs $45, has been homer prone lately, and recently looked terrible against the Marlins. I still think he’s the best player in this trade, pitches better moving foward, and, with my budget room, salary isnt a big consideration for the next couple years. This deal was basically Strahm for Dansby Swanson, who I have told others that I have a thing for, with other pieces included for roster considerations. Fernando Tatis JR, and Ketel Marte have made Swanson tradeable, but lets discuss those other pieces:

Addison Russell – I have always firmly believed in Humanistic Pscychology and am a big fan of Carl Rogers, who encourgaed helpers to accept people for who they are, meet them on their level, and work through personal biases… Even after doing that Addison Russell is still a shitty person. However, I think he’s still a solid fantasy backup middle infielder, with the potential to be more than that in the long run. Thank God this is just¬† fantasy, as a social worker I feel unclean owning him.

Christian Walker-  Walker was one of the hottest players to start the 2019 season. He then slumped mightly including a 3-for-44 stretch. Hes starting to show life again, averaging 10 points per game over the last week.  His 30% K rate means he likey wont enter 2020 as part of the Process, but Im hoping to ride a couple hot streaks along the way and sit him otherwise.

ORGANIZED CHAOS:  Why would he do that? Basically,  Swinson wanted Swanson.  He also  wanted a body at SP to fill in for Strahm, who Im assuming he has soured on after throwing three mulit-homer games in a row, including that aforementioned dud against the Marlin. As several of us know, he was also VERY motivated to move Christian Walker.

Dansby Swanson – Swanson was the first selection in the 2015 MLB draft. He peaked as the #4 prospect in 2016 at MLb.com, who at that time gave his hit tool a 60 grade with average pop in his bat. He currently is SS#12 in our league and averaging 5.67 points per game. He’s only 25 years old, with a Dynasty Grinders’salary of $5.¬† I think this is what Chaos can expect from him moving foward. I again assume that Chaos is expecting¬† more, and if he’s right could come out of this deal a winner.

Tyler Skaggs – In trade talks I’ve called Skaggs a “good pitcher.” I apologize for those I lied to. I dont think Coach Swinson was necessarily looking for a good pitcher, as much as a warm body to fill a rotaton spot. That’s what he got. Skaggs can be good at times, as he was for most of last season. He is probably a league average pitcher with the propensity for getting injured .

Pavin Smith РI spent a FYPD 1st round pick on Pavin Smith. He was well regarded coming out of the 2017 MLB draft and was taken #7 by the Diamondbacks. Smith is 23 in AA, with a career line of .270/.358/.404. I dont think he makes much of an impact unless he develops power to match his strong batting eye. I lost patience with him, and dont think I will miss him. Chaos gets a guy with a good pedigree and the abilty to take a walk. 

Lazaro Armenteros- It feels like we’ve been hearing about this guy forever, but he’s only 20. Ive seen Armenteros creeping up on some top prospects lists, and have heard some good things about his power. His K rate is currently 40%, leading me to believe he also wont be missed by The Process. I assume he’s just a flyer taken by Chaos.

SO WHO WINS?

This is a couple of medicocre teams, trading medicocre pieces. I got more current useful¬† pieces, so I feel good about my return. Coach Swanson got guys he likes, so he might argue the same… The real winners, Grinders, are YOU. I promise no more daily trade offers including Christian Walker. You’re Welcome.