Trade: Senior Squids | Long Ball to LF

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Musgrove, Joe
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids)
Wright, Kyle
O’Neill, Tyler

Senior Squids trades away
Paxton, James

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

The nice thing I’ll say about this trade is that I do like it more than the last one.  Paxton is a more volatile asset than Gary Sanchez is, thus I think it’s a better piece to trade if you’re rebuilding/tanking.  Elton took my advice from the last review in trading Paxton. I still think it would be preferable to have made this trade rather than and instead of the last one.

That being said, I still think this isn’t a great trade, but it’s not awful.  It’s basically a downgrade from a near ace level pitcher in Paxton to whatever Musgrove is with a wild card shot on Wright or Oneil being something. If Oneill becomes a middle of the order bopper year in and year out and Musgrove is a top 30ish pitcher, then it probably works out ok for him. That still seems like a lot of risk of both those things happening rather than Paxton just staying good. Paxton could get hurt, but Musgrove is no stranger to injuries either.  Seems risky with not a ton of upside unless you think Paxton isn’t built to hold up for a few years or that Musgrove will become close to his tier of a player. Which I suppose is possible!

I still have trouble seeing how this puts Elton in a better position to beat the teams he made stronger in 2019 and beyond. Senior Squids finally has a top 10 farm, and their best course now is to let his prospects marinate and hopefully next year flip them for an elite asset like Gary Sanchez or James Paxton. This trade reminds me a lot of the Pirates trading Gerit Cole, when they sought elite future assets and ended up with… Joe Musgrove.

For Long Ball, this seems like a no brainer move. Sure Paxton has injury risk, but so does Musgrove. Every trade has inherent risks, but this seems like a pretty safe bet. With a rotation of Nola, Paxton, and Greinke, the Long Balls look to be serious contenders now and in the future.

Andrew’s thoughts: 

James Paxton is a weird guy to value. He’s obviously very, very good, but he’s also constantly hurt. He’s never thrown more than 136 innings and I feel like if you’re buying him, you’re probably worried he won’t be available when it matters most (H2H playoff time). At the same time… he costs only $10, $12 minimum to keep, and that is effectively nothing. Even if he gets greeded up to $20, that’s peanuts for a player of his caliber. He could miss all of 2019 for whatever reason and still be cheap enough to keep into 2020. I guess what I’m saying is, he’s riskier than your average pitcher, but his price and ability outweigh a good majority of that risk. I agree with Hustle’s general sentiment that, for a rebuilding team, Paxton is the most obvious chip to move (and that he should’ve been traded first and instead of franchise piece Gary Sanchez).

On the other side, Joe Musgrove also appears to be an injury risk. He’s only pitched in four MLB games this year after battling injuries all winter and spring. I like Musgrove, but I’m a little shocked he’s the main piece in a deal for a Paxton-like stud. I’m having flashbacks to Lewis Brinson — in other words, a guy who pops up on the trade block sporadically for months, then is suddenly headlining a deal for a star. In this case, three of Musgrove’s four starts have been good, so I guess that’s enough to make him valuable.

In essence, Long Ball paid three prospects — O’Neill, Wright, and a pick — to upgrade Musgrove to Paxton. And I love it. He had to do it. He didn’t, in my opinion, touch any of his premium prospects to get this deal done (if I’m Squids and trading Paxton to Long Ball, I’m getting Juan Soto or Bo Bichette back or I’m shopping really hard elsewhere). Musgrove seems good, but Paxton is elite. To me, Tyler O’Neill is a depth piece in our league. The power will play, but his cost control clock has already started ticking and he’s on a team that doesn’t have room for him. Is he just a fourth outfielder? Kyle Wright ranked 24th on FanGraphs’ new prospect list, but I don’t know much about him. He’s a pitcher, and if I’m tanking this year and probably next as Squids appears to be doing, I’m just not pumped to do it all around pitchers.

Ultimately I can’t escape the feeling here that Squids decided Paxton had to go ASAP and just took whatever offer looked best. Yeah, Paxton’s risky, but given his performance and cost, literally every team should have shown interest. Paxton is more valuable to even a rebuilding team than almost any prospect or combo of 2-3 prospects. I’d love to know if any “rebuilding” teams inquired. I know Squids has taken some pleasure in trying to play the “top teams” against each other as he tears down, but the market for Paxton should’ve been vast and the return just seems underwhelming. Oh well. Paxton’s arm could melt off at any moment (he had forearm cramping during his last start!) and this deal could then look fantastic simply by virtue of getting something. There aren’t a lot of studs in the league for under $20, but Paxton’s one of them and injury history be damned, I feel like he should’ve fetched a Bichette, Soto, or some prospect of that ilk a tier or two below the Vlads and Acunas of the world. Kyle Wright feels very blah to me. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out and if injuries play a role in the narrative.

 

 

Trade: Senior Squids | TBD

SS sends: C Gary Sanchez ($27), $10 Auction Budget
TBD sends: SP Michel Baez (minors), 2B/CF Jahmai Jones (minors), RF Alex Kirilloff (minors), SP Franklin Perez (minors)

Hustle’s toxic $0.02: When the centerpiece of your sell off return is a pitcher in A-ball, you’ve done something wrong. Maybe if you weren’t selling off a big piece, sure. That being said, Gary Sanchez is 25 at the top of an elite position and comfortable priced under 30 bucks. I like Michel Baez, I’ve offered trades for him… but I’ve offered other prospects. Baez is also currently sporting a 4.71 xFIP as well as a 4.7 BB/9. The odds of Baez being an Ace in the majors is real, but slim. Franklin Perez is injured at the moment, he projects to be a decent MLB starter, but also might not be. Kirilloff is certainly a nice A-ball bat, but it’s also at outfield where it’s not particularly hard to find productivity. Jahmi Jones is just a guy. Maybe he’s the good version of Brad Miller/Brandon Phillips at 2B, a very decent depth piece to have if he hits. The chances of one of these players being a superstar like Sanchez is probably under 50%, it’s probably under 25%. You already have a young Sanchez, so trading him for risk seems like a pretty big mistake. If Gary Sanchez suffers a career threatening injury, I like this trade for Squids.

I think if you’re Squids and giving up on 2018 for some reason, it would have made more sense to try and get something out of Paxton instead of Sanchez. Paxton is 29 and has a lengthy injury history. Someone surely would have given him a few decent prospects for him too (still can!). But I think Squid’s goal of assembling the real life Mariners in a 16 team league is real and won’t be stopped.

TBD already has the best team on paper prior to this trade as well as the most points, so this only makes that stronger. In the end, things will come down to a one week playoff and certainly anything is possible. TBD has done tremendously trading non elite prospects for top tier talent. I think Squids panicked a little early in the season and once his mind was made up he was out of it he decided to play kingmaker but instead has made his team a pawn for years to come.

The $10 isn’t a big deal in terms of budget, it’s just a reminder of how cruel humanity can be.

Andrew’s thoughts: When Squids first traded for Gary Sanchez, I got my assessment wrong. That deal was for Corey Kluber, and in retrospect, it’s been alright. Sanchez has done far more than I thought he would and, surprise, surprise, the cost control aspect of these players that I harped on in that review isn’t that big a deal.

Anyway, here we are again, another chance to review a Sanchez trade. And this one strikes me as… worse.

I just don’t understand trading a young, affordable, elite hitter at the top of a thin position for a handful of non-elite prospects. I can’t even decipher who the best prospect here is. I guess it’s Franklin Perez, since he’s seemingly the closest to the majors. If I’m going to trade Sanchez to TBD and I insist on doing it for prospects, then Eloy Jimenez is involved or there’s no deal to be made. Period. I was amazed that JD Martinez and a full loan was handed over to TBD without Eloy and I’m amazed that now Sanchez has been too. If TBD says Eloy’s untouchable, then alright, move along. Whatever. There’s no clear reason that Sanchez had to go anywhere, so just keep him. He’s better than Eloy anyway. But at least in Eloy you’re getting a legitimate, consensus top flight prospect. You do him, Baez, and Jones or whatever and this seems at least explainable.

I just don’t really get the rush to punt on Sanchez. At worst, he’s $44 next year — and that’s with greed, which now will be spread out across other guys instead. Whatever salary is ultimately freed up here seems like it has very little, if any, practical value, especially since $10 also inexplicably got dumped into TBD’s pocket (kudos to Joe and/or Josh for having the balls to say, “we realize we’re getting the best catcher in the game here and he’s on a nice salary, but can we also get $10 to cover when teams greed him up?”), eating into whatever savings. And Squids spent $51 at auction this year on relievers and a broken Carlos Rodon. So like, just don’t do that next year and you can safely keep elite Sanchez. You’re way, way, way better off going into auction with a proven points-scorer like Sanchez locked in than with a bunch of money to flush on risky players.

I mean… our trade block is public, and in it, Squids insisted on “top grade” prospects and cited “major league ready” as a bonus. This batch of prospects are not “top grade.” Per FanGraphs most recent grades, Baez is a 55 FV, the other three guys are 50. That is indisputably not “top grade.” And of them, only Perez is all that close to the majors. Jones is in A+ and converting from CF to 2B, so his development may lag a little. Baez isn’t faring all that well in A+. Kirilloff is coming off surgery in A-ball. These guys won’t help this year or next, most likely, and may not be fantasy relevant until 2020.

So yeah, I just love this deal for TBD. They’ll pick up a few prospects from their watch list for $0 FAAB bids this morning and let them marinate in their minors a while until eventually they’re on a top-100 list, because on a long enough timeline that’s just sort of what happens with halfway decent prospects. And in the meantime, they’ll bank a bunch of Sanchez homer points en route to a potential points championship. Good work, fellas.

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | Hustle Loyalty Respect

CAP sends: 1B Yordan Alvarez (minors), SP Nate Pearson (minors), SS Freddy Galvis ($5)
HLR sends: 3B/RF Nicholas Castellanos ($20), CF Blake Rutherford (minors), SS Addison Russell ($44), $9 2018 Auction Budget

Jordan’s thoughts: I am inclined to trust these two teams know what they’re doing given that they appeared in last year’s championship. But who knows? I am Jordan and I sure as hell do not know.

In this deal, HLR seems to just be adding prospects in order to flip them after the season starts to one of the tanking teams. Yordan Alvarez could be awesome, or he could be AJ Reed in left field. Nate Pearson could be Noah Syndergaard, or he could blow his arm out. More likely, he shoots up prospect lists in 2018 and HLR trades him for profit. Or the Blue Jays announce that Pearson is being converted to a relief pitcher and HLR trades him to Hydra for all their good players. I’ve got to be perfectly honest. I am Jordan and since these players are prospects, I have never heard of them.

The best piece going to HLR in this deal might just be Freddy Galvis, who is not particularly good but shows up every day. These same things were once said about Andrelton Simmons and he is now a valuable fantasy commodity. As a True Grinder™, Galvis embodies what HLR is all about, minus the penchant for trolling. Maybe HLR will flip Freddy to one of the teams that don’t have an obvious resolution at SS going into the season, who could use the cheap, at-least-he-plays-every-day depth.

Also, why did HLR include the $9? Does he just hate Shohei Ohtani? It seems like that money would’ve been better served adding one of the many awesome available players at auction, like James Shields or Mitch Moreland.

For the defending points and league champion, well, what was the point of this? Castellanos is, like, the third best 3B on this roster? Maybe second best, since the new humidor in Arizona is guaranteed to turn Rake Lamb back into plain old Jake Lamb. At any rate, CAP has no real need for Castellanos and should’ve just saved the prospects for in-season, at which point they could be flipped to a tanker for an obvious need. Now that the payout structure has been changed unilaterally to reward the teams with the best farm systems (forgot to tell you guys this, sorry, telling you here and now, thanks!), trading off prospects seems especially odd.

Blake Rutherford is just whatever. He could be awesome (yay!), could be the next AJ Reed (sad!), or could just be the same guy as Yordan Alvarez (yawn!). He’s on some lists. He’s not on other lists. Lists are important and I am sure that CAP hopes one day, Rutherford is on them all. Again, this guy is a prospect, so I, Jordan, have never heard of him.

The strange part of this trade is the inclusion of $44 Addison Russell. He’s basically the same guy as Galvis — not super efficient but plays every day; reliable; boring — but costs $39 more. Why not just keep Galvis, CAP? Even with the $9, Russell is too expensive. Sure, Russell has some upside, but he’s just such a risky guy to go out and acquire and then keep. So weird.

Final thought: HLR is getting the most cost controlled players, therefore HLR wins the trade. Freddy Galvis is interesting. Addison Russell is expensive. Castellanos has a funny name. I am Jordan and I approve this trade review.

We Talk Fantasy Sports’ thoughts: Here is how this trade would look if it were a graph:

Trade: TBD | Off-season Double Stuffs

PRE sends: RF JD Martinez ($55), $55 Auction Budget
LB sends: RF Austin Hays ($5), LF/CF Lewis Brinson ($1; cost controlled), SP Brandon Woodruff ($1; cost controlled), SP Adrian Morejon (minors)

Andrew’s thoughts: When this trade first popped up I thought, “dear God, please tell me this is not the package Ferns is going to pay down JD’s entire salary for.” But guess what? It is!

I love, conceptually, a team in a punt year offering to cover a star player’s entire salary in a deal. I think its a creative way of extracting max value, and in this case, potential long-term value for a guy that, at least in 2018, doesn’t really matter if he’s there or not. And this is definitely one of those trades where, a year from now, everything I’m about to say could look very, very stupid. But… I don’t think these players are a compelling return at all for a free year of JD Martinez.

Martinez is pretty much a lock to be an elite hitter. He’s had some injury issues and maybe his skills won’t hold up as he slinks into his 30’s, but a single season of an elite player where someone else pays the salary is enormously valuable. Like, super super valuable. I believe he outproduced Paul Goldschmidt on a Pt/PA basis last year. So just imagine your team and your budget, but with Goldschmidt magically on it at zero penalty. I don’t think his free agency limbo matters, because his power translates to any park. I don’t worry as much about health or age, because the production is of zero question, and production is what matters.

I don’t think Lewis Brinson, who just got handed a full-time job but also a ballpark downgrade in Miami, is that interesting. Scouts like his power potential, but the balls are juiced. Everyone has the potential to hit homers. He’s got 60-grade speed, but SBs aren’t that valuable. I know he’s one of those toolsy, if-it-all-comes-together upside guys and he’s been ranked highly on all the lists, but I just can’t get overly excited about him. And how much of his list pedigree is defense-based? He’s got great defensive scouting grades. Again, he could blow up and I could look dumb. Of course, if he blows up in 2018, well, then his $1 season will have had very little impact for you because you’re punting and he’ll cost a few bucks more the following year (not enough for it to matter probably, but still). His projections currently peg him as a below average outfielder in 2018, which is fine, he’s a prospect, the projections rarely love them. He’s just not a prospect I’m crazy about. I also think, as many injury concerns as you may have about JD, Brinson’s got them too. At least JD can blame his on age.

Austin Hays is a guy I like, but he’s actually very similar to Brinson except he gets to hit in a friendly park. And he’s not cost controlled which, starting with a $5 salary, probably doesn’t matter much. Maybe he gets hit hard with greed next year. Who cares? I think I also may have talked myself into Hays because he’s an Oriole and I want to believe in the Orioles’ ability to occasionally develop a good prospect. I wonder if he’s going to get on base enough to provide a safe floor. He doesn’t walk at all, even in the minors, and seems like a guy that could strikeout a bunch. So really, the two cornerstone pieces of this deal — and I’d argue a team paying you to take JD for a year is maybe the most valuable singular asset ever traded — are very, very high risk. Like, all ceiling, no floor, and the ceiling is questionable in an offensive environment where both guys’ calling card tools are shared by anyone who can figure out launch angles.

The pitchers are, to me, meh. I’m a fan of Brandon Woodruff, picked him up in another league and felt like he had value, but he’s also a pitcher in Milwaukee. The home park could be an obstacle and frankly, I’m not even sure he’s got a rotation spot locked up. Roster Resource currently says he’s out. The Brewers are expected to add a pitcher. I mean… is Woodruff a swing man? Does he come out of the bullpen? I don’t know. Adrian Morejon, meanwhile, is a guy I know very little about. He’s on lists. He’s also not even 19-years-old yet and a pitcher. Dude doesn’t have 30 innings at A-level ball yet. I just don’t see it.

For an asset as valuable as $0 JD, I just don’t want every single asset coming my way to have this many question marks. I think if there’s no budget involved here, it looks a lot better, because it gives the Double Stuffs some options to add talent via auction or trade for an overpriced player before then and still gives them the lottery tickets.

Reading back over this, I feel bad for being so negative. I don’t think I really dislike the guys Ferns got back as much as it probably sounds. I kinda hope someone digs up this review in a year and we can all laugh at how stupid I was. I just don’t think this package is enough. If its me, Eloy Jimenez is in it as well, or no deal. I’m getting an unquestioned elite fantasy prospect back. I probably even want a little more still. I traded Aaron Judge (to be fair, I shopped him and no one wanted him!) for Matt Holliday last year. So eh, what the hell do I know?

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

I’d like to say I admire Ferns for being one of the most active members of the league over this awful time of year called “the offseason”. If you think I started this by saying something nice so I could I say I don’t like the trade for him, well yeah you’re right… but it’s also true. I always respect someone putting thought into their team and actively trying to make it better and it its better to have someone reject your trade offer 71 times and throw in some counters than just let it sit there.

The trade ironically  makes TBD the preseason favorite.  It’s a pretty no brainer to trade 4 prospects for a paid JD Martinez, especially when they didn’t have to include their best prospect, perhaps not even 2nd or 3rd depending on your taste. Ferns was in a hurry to make the deal, but I’m not sure why, especially with the season almost 2 months away. Surely if he signs with Boston/Arizona the price goes up, if he signs with the Giants, I can’t imagine this offer not still being on the table.  Paying for the contract in full, the trade doesn’t even have to be made before the Auction, you’re out the $55 either way. If Ferns knows something about JD’s health that we all don’t, kudos to him on the ultimate hustle.

As for the return?  Brinson is the most attractive piece. He’s been traded 3 or 4 times in this league, 2 times in real life, and in the least attractive ballpark  now. If he breaks out this year, which is possible, he’s in his 3rd mlb year next year already. The best part of having a good prospect is the upside of getting 2 amazing years for basically $1 like we will most likely see Bailey get with Bellinger. That’s not to say he wont have a lot of value if he’s good, but a chunk of it is certainly gone.  Looking at Ferns roster, I think he can objectively say it might be a struggle to compete in 2019, if thats the case, that’s even more value out of Brinson (we’re also still just assuming Brinson is good and stays healthy which is no given for either).  Hays being immune to walks curbs his upside, but if he hits well enough he’s a useful piece.  I actually do like Woodruff a little bit, and the fact that he might not get many starts on a crowded Miluwakee team in 2018 doesn’t really hurt Ferns at all unless that happens in 2019 too.  That being said, same issue with Brinson in terms of losing potentially the most profitable year or two because your team isn’t competing those years. Adrian Morejon is  a guy I think may be overvalued. He will be a starter down the line (unlike all the relievers Hydra seems to be drafting), but he’s also a guy who’s upside may not worth waiting on for that long.

These are prospects and I am not a scout. The scouts get them wrong all the time and I’m willing to admit I know far less than them. I agree with Bailey saying this will be an interesting trade to look back on. They are all interesting guys and could hit.

Ultimately I do think this trade comes down to patience. Ferns wanted to get a trade JD Martinez for prospects ASAP. Meanwhile TBD put Hays/Brinson on the block all offseason long, patiently waiting until someone bite on prospects that have value, but they clearly soured on.

God Speed

 

Trade: Capital City Income | We Talk Fantasy Sports

Capital City Income trades away
Alzolay, Adbert

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
Diaz, Yusniel

 

 

 

A prospect for prospect trade? Always fun to review because you can say just about anything… and I’m going to just do that.

I can’t reveal Hustle Media’s prospect rankings to non subscribers, but I’m comfortable saying I had Diaz in the top 100 and Alzolay in the top 113. So I guess I prefer Diaz. That being said it’s pretty close and I don’t have a problem with personal preference here.

 Alzolay has a chance for more upside in this trade because in our scoring,  having a good pitcher is always going to be worth more than a good outfielder. If you’re high on Alzolay, getting him at the cost of an outfield prospect a couple years away is pretty good. The trade is also really good for WTFS if you look at the roster construction. Objectively speaking, pitching is a weak point for them right now. Having made starts in AA in 2017, it’s conceivable that Alzolay may make some starts in the bigs this season.  Even if you’re not confident on Alzolay, it might make sense to throw some darts on pitching prospects for WTFS.

Then there’s Diaz, he had a pretty decent showing in AA with a .397 WOBA and I feel like he’s starting to garner more hype after not lighting the world on fire as a teenager.  The Dodgers have a ton of OF prospect depth in their system, but I expect some trades to clear that out. If Diaz is good, he will find a spot to play.

The trade is fair and  it’s close, but the bat seems safer here…barely.

Trade: TBD trades with | Capital City Income and Long Ball to LF

 

 

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Davis, Chris  $50
Morejon, Adrian

TBD trades away
Pollock, A.J. $56
Paredes, Isaac

 

Hustle’s $.02

Oh look, a trade not involving Bailey. Yay.  Trades!  So looking at Davis and Pollock first.  Their price is similar.  Fantrax projects Chris Davis for a 5.6 a game next year and Pollock at 6.1.  Pollock plays a more scarce position. I tend to agree that as a hitter I like Pollock better for 2018 and the fact that Long Ball needed a CF, I like this part of the trade for him.  Joe has CF covered with a cheap Benitendi, so I get that Pollock was expendable, but I fail to see how Chris Davis is a better UTIL option. Anyway, because of team need I like this part of the trade for Long Ball

The minor league part is interesting.  Josh seemed very dead set on trading away Morejon. I’m not sure why. Does he know something we don’t?  Seems like a good prospect and is higher in the Hustle Media (C) Top 200 ranks.  I don’t know an incredible amount about Parades, but he seems like an average SS prospect to me.  Hitting prospects are generally safer, but Parades doesn’t have the ceiling I like in an 18 year old. I like the Morejon side here.

Put these two pieces together, and I think it’s a pretty even trade in my eyes. One of these 2 prospects is probably going to be solid and the other one a bum, so considering they are both 18…. let’s put a Remind Me for 6 years from now and circle back to this one!

Andrew’s Thoughts: First of all, while I appreciate the hustle, what a lack of respect by Jonny to post a trade review while I’m asleep. What about my hot takes? Truly unacceptable. A sick, sad lack of loyalty to the sacred covenant of the trade review. You can expect a retaliatory Mike Fiers for George Springer trade offer later today.

Anyway, this deal looks to me like a salary dump of a $56 AJ Pollock for a prospect in Adrian Morejon that is young enough to have an upward trajectory in terms of trade value and appearing on lists and all that jazz, but still a ways off from making a real impact.

Pollock’s salary worries me. It always has. I like Pollock, but he’s hurt a ton. Last year, he posted 466 plate appearances, the second most he’s had in a season since 2013. Unfortunately, he also put up only a 103 WRC+, making him slightly above average. The constant injuries and last year’s performance make him a big gamble at $56 I think. But he does theoretically solve Long Ball’s centerfield quandary and if he gets back to performing at an elite level (134 and 131 WRC+ in 2014-15) then I’m not even sure the injuries matter. If you can get 450 elite plate appearances and then just supplement with a platoon bat, you’re fine. Although, maybe you think that’s only true in roto. In H2H, it does suck having a guy that you can’t rely on to be healthy when games matter most.

Long Ball also has no apparent use for a $50 Chris Davis, who is risky for different reasons. He’s coming off a 92 WRC+ last year, which is a disaster in a year where productive 1B’s grew on trees, and only a 112 the year before. His strikeout rate surged and, as the balls are clearly juiced, his one skill of hitting bombs just doesn’t stand out as much anymore. Plus, Long Ball has Justin Smoak, Logan Morrison, and superstar CJ Cron to man the fort at 1B for a whopping combined cost of $14. At their salaries, Smoak and maybe Morrison alone are likely significantly more valuable than a $50 Davis.

TBD, meanwhile, is just way over budget and already has centerfield covered by Andrew Benintendi, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Capital City Ironmen legend Denard Span (who had a higher WRC+ and better Pt/PA than Davis in 2017!), plus Lewis Brinson waiting in the wings. They don’t really need Pollock. I just don’t see them keeping Davis either, even with a need for depth at 1B/UT. I assume the goal is to try a flip him between now and cuts, or maybe he’s just a guy TBD is happy to hold, cut, and guarantee themselves the opportunity to bid on. Not sure! But yeah, I think this is just punting Pollock’s salary, which makes sense because of his risks and cost, for an intriguing prospect.

 

TBD trades away
Alvarez, Yordan and $5

Capital City Income trades away
Perez, Franklin

Interesting prospect for prospect trade by two individuals who were offered employment by prospect 1500.  What’s there to say? Any hot take here is clearly talking out of my ass… but hey, that’s never stopped me before. So let’s do what we do every time in this situation… turn to the Hustle Media  (C) Top 200 ranks.  I kind of like Yordan Alvarez more, mostly because we’re dealing with a young pitching prospect here.  I think Perez’ ceiling is certainly higher, but I think Yordan is more likely to be a DG regular. At best I struggle to determine a winner, so it’s hard for me to look past the $5.   People really seem to enjoy giving Bailey money. Is it become his team  name is Income? I don’t know, but he’s racking up quite the budget for 2018.

 

 

Trade: Pre Season Double Stuff | Capital City Income

 

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Manaea, Sean (probably $3)

Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Mountcastle, Ryan

$20 2018 Auction

 

Disclaimer 1: I have not written about someone else’s trade since the deadline, so excuse me if I’m rusty.

 

Joe TBD Rawlings: [paraphrasing, profanity redacted] I don’t like this trade for Ferns.

Hustle’s .$02: 

I choose to review this trade as Manea for $20 because I assumed this deal was going to be made after I was kicked out of a 3-way.  If I come off as bitter or petty in this review, I agree with your assessment… but in reality that’s no different than any other review.

I thought $20 for Manea was fine, I actually may have liked it more for Ferns.  Ferns buying low on a cost controlled pitcher with  what I view as excess auction cash. Seems prudent. PSDS could be a good team next year if a lot of things break right, but I’d say most likely they are a year away. With that mind, why not spend excess cash in 2018  for a guy who will be very reasonably priced in 2019, and if his price goes up a ton, that’s probably a good thing.

Manaea was good in the first half, velocity dipped and was bad in the second half (PUT STATS HERE).  If he’s better next year, Ferns has a good rotation piece that will help him next year and beyond, and relatively well priced.  If Manaea sucks, then Ferns spent $20 +$3 on a bad pitcher in a rebuilding year… which becomes irrelevant because it’s no worse than busting on a player in the auction which almost all of us will do.  This is slightly better because he has the upside of a controlled cheaper asset.  Thus I did like it for Ferns. It’s low risk and Manaea can certainly rebound.

For Bailey, who is cash strapped, $20 to sell low on what was once a much better asset doesn’t seem too much of a sell low.  Additionally, after 2 straight seasons of mismanaging his money in the auction, does $20 really matter?  If his incompetence in managing auction money leads him to lucking into the 2018 Morton again, you just have to shrug  and say “good job”.

I legitimately thought this was a good trade for Ferns, but then I saw Mountcastle was included in the deal and I soured just a  little bit. I’m pretty sure both parties would have done the trade for $20, Bailey can correct me or pretend otherwise. I think Ferns should have probably pushed harder to keep Mountcastle, I don’t think anyone is in the position to just be giving away borderline top 100 prospects in a league where 400 will be carried next year, let alone rebuilding teams. Mountcastle is fine (PUT STATS HERE), probably a jabroni, but would have been good enough to make it on my farm team, and that’s the Hustle Media (TM) #1 ranked farm team, so he has some stand alone value.  He’s on the Orioles, so that’s probably more exciting for Bailey.

Mountcastle probably pushes me to liking this trade more for Bailey just because he gets back some future potential to balance out Manaea’s loss for one year of extra cash. If Manea rebounds, this works out well for Ferns.

To quote Andrew Bailey from his own rap

“Over 79 from Bellinger and 59.5 from Votto
Seriously guys, trade with @ferns, it’s like hitting the lotto”

I admire Ferns ability to keep trading with Bailey, it shows character to keep getting up after knocked down. They have traded together at least 4  or 5 times. The Miggy for Urias trade might still work out for Ferns depending on if Urias ever pitches again, but at worst it’s probably a wash with how expensive Miggy is and his back problems, but the others seemed to go in Bailey’s favor. This one seems relatively low risk unless Mountcastle blows up in 2018.

 

Dusty

 

 

 

Rapid Fire Deadline Review

Hustle’s $.02

 

 

I’m not looking up stats or anything so my hot takes will be worse than usual.  I’m busy tomorrow too, but I did have a story I wanted to share. This deadline reminds me of growing up in Los Angeles. I would wait in the kitchen while my Mom would fold some dough over a jelly filling and bake it. Once it was cooked and cooled off she’d hand it to me and say “Enjoy the Turnover”

And now to some rosters that had some turnover

 

rocky mtn oysters trades away
2018 Draft Pick, Round 3 (rocky mtn oysters)
McMahon, Ryan
Kiermaier, Kevin

The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses trades away
Arrieta, Jake
2018 Draft Pick, Round 4 (The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses)
2018 Draft Pick, Round 5 (The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses)
Tapia, Raimel AND $11

I think this is a big get for Dusty. I think Tapia and KK are pretty close, not even sure where’d I’d lean. I’m assuming Tapia is cheaper and gets hurt less?  McMahon is probably worth $11 of Auction money, maybe less. Maybe $7? It’s close.  But then one side gets an Arrietta rental?  Since WFBD wasnt going to keep Jake, it’s not that terrible but I’m not sure you take Arrietta out of the deal and Dusty’s side doesn’t win….let alone with. Seems like a big bonus in Arrietta for an alleged marginal upgrade.

rocky mtn oysters trades away
Bundy, Dylan

The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses trades away
2018 Draft Pick, Round 3 (rocky mtn oysters)

3rd round pick isn’t incredibly valuable.  If you weren’t keeping Bundy, take a 3rd rounder.  If you want to roll with Bundy, that’s fine. I guess I lean the Bundy side coming off an 8 IP performance. Bundy can audition for WFBD and if all is good, $11 is nothing for a starter you like. If Dusty was contemplating just dropping Bundy in a month, this is much better.  I always prefer to get something for nothing.

 

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away
2019 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Team Hydra)

Team Hydra trades away
2019 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Hustle Loyalty Respect)

They have three heads, but I’m three steps ahead of them.

 

TBD trades away
Arozarena, Randy
Burnes, Corbin

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
Upton, Justin AND $5

Don’t know much about Randy, but seems like a whatever outfielder who doesn’t project to hit for a lot of power. If you like a prospect, you like a prospect.  Burnes has gotten a lot of hype this year, so he seems like a good T-50-100 prospect. No issues with duping 65 or whatever dollar uptotn. How did Upton go for that much in a draft?  Better than nothing.  I don’t see why TBD would say no to the deal without the $5.  WTFS has a lot of cash next year without Upton, Scherzer, and Buxton.  They are going to have to make some really smart buys to compete. Also in my last review I failed to mention they have German Marquez as one of their pitchers to keep, so that does make their rotation a tad better than I had initially thought after losing Max.

 

Team Hydra trades away
Kluber, Corey AND $5

TBD trades away
Keller, Mitch
Syndergaard, Noah

 

I like this trade for both teams, i might even like it more for Hydra. I don’t know anything about what Thor is going to do this year or next. It makes sense for TBD to go hard at Kluber to go for a win this year. It’s a strong move. I do like it for Hyrdra cheaper price (although the $5 cancels some of that out) and younger age, Noah is a better keeper so long as he’s 100%… and then getting a top SP prospect like Keller on top. It makes sense for both teams. Plus the last team to trade for Kluber went on to win the championship.  Mets pitchers though…

 

Great Deadline Everyone!

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Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports| Capital City Income

Capital City Income trades away
Happ, Ian ($0 prospect)
Faria, Jake ($0 prospect)
2018 Draft Pick, Round 1 (The Foundation)
Owings, Chris ($8)

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
Scherzer, Max ($88)
2018 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Hustle Loyalty Respect)

$10 Auction Dollars 2018

 

 

View post on imgur.com

Controversy

 

A bitter angry source (not really but maybe kinda) who will remain nameless (but hint: there is a vowel in his first name) has come forward saying he had a deal agreed to for Max Scherzer but this one was accepted instead. I had a chance to review the package ( ͡º ͜ʖ ͡º) from my source and I think it’s relatively on par with the one Bailey offered. The centerpiece in that deal I believe has more upside than anyone acquired here, but was also considerably more unproven.

 

Hustle’s EXTRA ULTRA TOXIC $.02

 

I guess we should really look at this trade through WTFS’ eye. For Bailey? He’s getting one of the 3 best pitchers in the game. He’s losing 2b depth, but for this year at least he has Neil Walker, Howie Kendrick, or Marwin Gonzalez who could slot in there. I think worst case scenario he’s averaging maybe .5-1 ppg less from his 2b spot for the rest of this season, but probably not. The value Max will give to his team more than makes up for it. Additionally his team looks like a monster for next year It’s a big win for CCI.   Not sure if the market might have cooled because Max slept on his neck poorly one night, but it might have. Ultimately, can you really trust a guy with different colored eyes?

 

Per Keith, WTFS has 423 next to spend next year and that’s before dumping Buxton (BREAKING NEWS) and Upton resulting in an additional $90. That alone pays for Scherzer IN FULL with decent money left over. You’re not going to get someone as good as Scherzer in auction with the 130 or whatever they will have, so why not just keep him? Additionally looking at WTFS rotation next year we see Faria, Moore, and Kennedy. There is no way getting around the fact that this is bad. You can add some pieces in auction, but it’s a gamble thinking you’re going to walk away with more than 1 quality SP all year from auction. For those that have gotten 2 or more this year, kudos… I think you’re in the minority…. And I am not one of you.

 

Looking at the assets. The headliner is Ian Happ who is cost controlled for another 6 seasons. Currently averaging 5.56 ppg (I really should do points per pa like Bailey does, but haven’t figured that out yet). I like Ian Happ a good amount and he certainly seems like a long term keeper for WTFS, but if his upside isn’t being an elite guy, then I don’t like this as a headline piece. Furthermore, one of the most attractive parts of Ian Happ is that he will only cost $1 next season. A $1 and 5.5 ppg or even 6ppg 2b for $1… rookie on the Cubs?… SIGN ME UP! But when you have over $100 cap space and you’re giving up $10 to do it, the $1 deal is considerably less valuable. You might as well think of Ian Happ as $11 next year, which is still a great price for current pace. Faria is nice but I think is clearly overachieving, his LOB % is still over 80%, FIP 3.8, XFIP 4.5. He is potentially a decent starter to keep for a few years. Chris Owings is $10 next year and is averaging 4.7 ppg this year. He’s probably a keeper? Unexciting but useful. I like draft picks, but best case scenario you’re getting a back end top 100 guy here with this pick.

 

I guess I don’t love this package. I’m not sure the tipping point is the $10 or not, but it might be. If the plan is to compete for next season, I think this trade is a lose for WTFS barring Scherzer’s performance and health. A pitcher can lose it at any point and quick or get hurt, as we saw with Thor earlier this year.

 

There are a lot of mid range good cost pieces coming back to Keith here, but nothing really game changing. Nothing that’s really going to compete with a core of elite talent like Scherzer, Mccutchen, Stanton, Carrasco, Bellinger, and Denard Span….supplemented with useful good cost pieces. Other top teams based on point scored are similarly built.

 

Auction budget doesn’t guarantee you much, Squids had overwhelmingly the most of it last auction and wasted $70 on Richards and Harvey. $70 alone was more than double some teams had to spend this last auction and they have done almost nothing for Squids. Looking at Squids Auction he hit on a $42 Keuchel, but that’s not a super value going forward. He also had plenty of other wasted picks like $18 on Alex Gordon and $23 on Shelby Miller. For the record, my auction was probably worse than his… I just had less money so I’m focusing on the guy who had the most.

I spent about the same amount on Smyly and Rodon.  Rodon has had maybe 1 ok game in my lineup along with a -42…. And when you combine those two scores for negative whatever… it’s still more than the 0 Smyly has given me.

 

This is a long way of me saying….expensive priced players like Scherzer are good for your team if they are good. Cap space is considerably overrated. David Price is going to be in the auction, but there are going to be quite a few teams that can drop more than $50 on a player if they want, and there aren’t going to be many players (if any) who you will feel great about paying $50 for. I know this won’t happen, but if you’re a team that’s out of it, it’s not the worst idea to deal some prospects for a proven $20-50 guy who you want to keep next year.

There are quite a few teams already where I am comfortable writing off their 2018 chances of a championship. Anything is possible as Kevin Garnett once said (you could be 1st place in august with 10th most points in August), but it’s going to be an incredibly difficult task. Multiple teams building for 2020 isn’t wise because well, multiple teams are doing it. Additionally, the top teams aren’t going to start sucking. Many of them have better farm systems than the teams who actually need them.

Ultimately I don’t like this trade for Keith because he has a ton of cap space and his pitching for next year looks in trouble. If the plan is to build long term and tap out for 2018, I might have opted for more upside.  The ways this does work out for Keith is

 

  • Scherzer has a lengthy injury
  • He becomes not an Ace. At 33 years old, it’s not crazy and Scherzer likely doesn’t have more than a couple years of this level left.
  • Faria stays this good and Happ improves.

 

So, I think this trade could work out for Keith, I just don’t love the probability of it.

Like the referees told UNC after Chris Webber called a timeout with no timeouts left. “Enjoy the Turnover”.

Trade: Rocky Mtn Oysters | Preseason Double Stuffs

Preseason Double Stuffs sends: 2B Rougned Odor ($29)
Rocky Mtn Oysters send: LF/CF/RF Taylor Trammell

Andrew’s Thoughts: I’m still not a Rougned Odor fan. Too much variance. He seems to either make an out, usually by strike out, or hit a home run, which is a little more appealing in a 5×5 roto league than a H2H league. Worse, Odor has one of the most punchable faces in all of baseball. I’m firmly #TeamBautista. Still, this makes sense for Dusty, who gave up a prospect that’s like 2-3 years from scoring him points for a bench guy that he can just as easily cut in the offseason when he costs $31 (or more if someone slaps greed on him). I mean, yeah, Odor never walks so he has no real floor, but you could do way worse than a 30+ HR threat as a back-up.

For the Double Stuffs, this could be seen as flipping a $15 DJ LeMahieu for a toolsy outfield prospect that has just now started to sneak onto top-100 lists but, again, is a ways off. Looking at it that way is probably demoralizing though. Instead, just look at this transaction by itself and it’s fine. Because again, I’m cutting a $30+ Odor after the season. I imagine PDS was too. Odor has upside but that cost offsets pretty much all of it.

As for Trammell, well, I’m pretty sure I was baffled when Dusty paid budget money to move up and take him in our minor league draft. But I stand corrected. He is now a guy whose name appears on lists. And guess what? Getting your name on lists means you have trade value. I can’t find record of ever doubting Trammell here on the Dynasty Grinders dot com, but I remember doing so somewhere. And so this is me, taking responsibility for the things that I have said, and admitting that I was wrong some months back about the acquisition cost of this particular prospect.

Anyway, I’m pretty clearly okay in general with good teams acquiring bad salaries as bench or depth pieces and bad teams getting back reputable prospects for them instead of waiting around to cut.

Hustle’s Toxic $.02: Both these owners and teams should be commended for making this trade. They both wanted to make their teams better (I hope) and managed to find the courage to agree on terms despite a potential trade review looming.

PDS obviously sees Schoop as their 2b of the future and at $12 and almost averaging 7 ppg, Schoop is easily the better player and value going forward. Schoop has really cut down his Ks and while his BABIP is high, it’s not crazy high. It makes sense for PDS to get rid of Odor for a prospect they like. If Trammel is their guy, so be it, I’m not sure what their other options were. It was not that long ago when PDS traded DJ Lemeihu for Odor, so Odor’s stench on PDS has been quickly removed. That being said, with their cap space, they were probably better off with DJ and Schoop. Odor was one of the few players I pegged PDS to keep. With one less guy, I’d expect to see a lot of new faces on their team next season, I hope they enjoy the turnover.

 

For Dusty, he trades a borderline top 100 prospect for even more 2b depth. He has Cano at 2b, so Odor is pretty much looking at playing time on his team at Utility. With Taylor, Spangeberg, Priela, and Sogard… Odor might be just another guy on his team. That being said Odor does have some nice power potential and could be big down the stretch if he gets hot on the first place Oysters. It’s a low cost risk for a currently hot swinging Odor.