Yesterday I commented on how diffiult it was to review my own trade. Today, I again tried to ask, “why would he do that,” and see both sides of the deal, but it was easier to form a solid opinion on this deal.
The Foundation – Jordan does this deal to get Frankie Montas, who has been very productive this year averaging 33.2 points per game. He will step in as The Foundation’s best pitcher when Hyun-Jin Ryu finds his way back to the injured list. I personally don’t think Montas has the talent to maintain this level of play, but Im wrong about players all the time. His numbers suggest there may be some regression coming, but nothing that Jordan will lose sleep over. Even with some regression, Montas should be an above average starting pitcher and a good acquistion to the Foundation.
The Foundation also adds Kyle Schwarber. The numbers on the back of Schwarber’s baseball card are kind of ugly. He also has a history of sitting against lefthanders. With all that said, a decent eye and the power he is known for has carried him to a 5.15ppg average making him a decent LF option for the Foundation, who just lost LF Andrew McCutchen for the year. His $36 price tag puts him on the cut bubble, but Jordan can worry about that later.
ORGANZIED CHAOS- Why would he do this? It’s either Ozzie Albies, or the desire to own the enitre Braves infield. Im not sure which Ozzie Albies Coach Swinson is actually getting here. Is it the man-child from the first half of last year, or the kid who is hitting .259/.318/.403 for the year? Grinders member Keith Lott of We Talk Fantasy Sports has a pretty strong opinion of Albies https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” data-wplink-url-error=”true”>here. Im not that quick to write off a 22 year old with a once rated 70 hit tool but Im not sure he does enough other things to be the true fantasy star some people believe he still could be.
Chaos gets Justus Sheffield in the deal. I truely ask “why did he do that?” Sheffield has a devestating slider, but not much after that. He’s a top 100 prospect, in mulitlpe locations, but without significant improvement I cant see him having alot of success unless it’s in relief. Im afraid this might be a case of Coach Swinson trusting the lists, without additional homework.
Chaos got a 2nd rounder for a 4th rounder in this deal. It helps balance things a little.
SO WHO WON THE DEAL?
Jordan preaches winning now, and traded Albies’ potential (whatever it may be), for an above average starting pitcher and a useful LF. Coach gets a young 2B, and almost a monopoly of the Atlanta infield. Anyway I fernslice it, I prefer The Foundation’s side by a good bit.
Team Canada trades away 1B/3B Kevin Cron ($5.50, sadly not cost controlled)
Andrew’s thoughts: As the league’s foremost authority on 1bman, I thought it appropriate that I review Ferns’ latest trade for one. As the kids would say, Ferns is thirsty for 1bman. 💯💦🍹
In the wise words of Jordan Gillis, this trade SEEMS FINE. It is a practically meaningless prospect pick for a trial run of the Diamondbacks starting pinch hitter who murdered minor league pitching. Maybe one day whoever the D’backs manager is lets Kevin Cron play with his friends regularly and he becomes an impact hitter at $7 to keep. Maybe not. But at the cost of a fifth round pick, there’s really no risk. That is the textbook definition of “seems fine.”
For Team Canada, this move frees up a roster spot to stream backup catchers on days where there are only four MLB games. That is truly exciting.
The only loser here is me for having reviewed this trade.
It’s difficult to review your own trade. You obviously made the deal to get something you want and are at least satisfied with the results. I have been know, in the past, to decline trade offers with the question “why would I do that?” So for this trade review we will ask a similar question, “why would they do that?”
THE PROCESS – I wanted Matt Strahm. Yes, he costs $45, has been homer prone lately, and recently looked terrible against the Marlins. I still think he’s the best player in this trade, pitches better moving foward, and, with my budget room, salary isnt a big consideration for the next couple years. This deal was basically Strahm for Dansby Swanson, who I have told others that I have a thing for, with other pieces included for roster considerations. Fernando Tatis JR, and Ketel Marte have made Swanson tradeable, but lets discuss those other pieces:
Addison Russell – I have always firmly believed in Humanistic Pscychology and am a big fan of Carl Rogers, who encourgaed helpers to accept people for who they are, meet them on their level, and work through personal biases… Even after doing that Addison Russell is still a shitty person. However, I think he’s still a solid fantasy backup middle infielder, with the potential to be more than that in the long run. Thank God this is just fantasy, as a social worker I feel unclean owning him.
Christian Walker- Walker was one of the hottest players to start the 2019 season. He then slumped mightly including a 3-for-44 stretch. Hes starting to show life again, averaging 10 points per game over the last week. His 30% K rate means he likey wont enter 2020 as part of the Process, but Im hoping to ride a couple hot streaks along the way and sit him otherwise.
ORGANIZED CHAOS: Why would he do that? Basically, Swinson wanted Swanson. He also wanted a body at SP to fill in for Strahm, who Im assuming he has soured on after throwing three mulit-homer games in a row, including that aforementioned dud against the Marlin. As several of us know, he was also VERY motivated to move Christian Walker.
Dansby Swanson – Swanson was the first selection in the 2015 MLB draft. He peaked as the #4 prospect in 2016 at MLb.com, who at that time gave his hit tool a 60 grade with average pop in his bat. He currently is SS#12 in our league and averaging 5.67 points per game. He’s only 25 years old, with a Dynasty Grinders’salary of $5. I think this is what Chaos can expect from him moving foward. I again assume that Chaos is expecting more, and if he’s right could come out of this deal a winner.
Tyler Skaggs – In trade talks I’ve called Skaggs a “good pitcher.” I apologize for those I lied to. I dont think Coach Swinson was necessarily looking for a good pitcher, as much as a warm body to fill a rotaton spot. That’s what he got. Skaggs can be good at times, as he was for most of last season. He is probably a league average pitcher with the propensity for getting injured .
Pavin Smith – I spent a FYPD 1st round pick on Pavin Smith. He was well regarded coming out of the 2017 MLB draft and was taken #7 by the Diamondbacks. Smith is 23 in AA, with a career line of .270/.358/.404. I dont think he makes much of an impact unless he develops power to match his strong batting eye. I lost patience with him, and dont think I will miss him. Chaos gets a guy with a good pedigree and the abilty to take a walk.
Lazaro Armenteros- It feels like we’ve been hearing about this guy forever, but he’s only 20. Ive seen Armenteros creeping up on some top prospects lists, and have heard some good things about his power. His K rate is currently 40%, leading me to believe he also wont be missed by The Process. I assume he’s just a flyer taken by Chaos.
SO WHO WINS?
This is a couple of medicocre teams, trading medicocre pieces. I got more current useful pieces, so I feel good about my return. Coach Swanson got guys he likes, so he might argue the same… The real winners, Grinders, are YOU. I promise no more daily trade offers including Christian Walker. You’re Welcome.
This trade is ok if your hoping for Pomeranz to regain his 30 PPG in seasons 2016/2017. Last year he started 26 games and averaged a measly 9 PPG. This year hasn’t been much better with only one good start and is averaging 18 ppg. With the Giants offence so poor and being in the National League the chances of him going deep in games is slim to none. As for the Otters, Nicky Lopez is a good major league ready player. He is batting .354 with a .426 OBP this year in Omaha and had a good season last year at AAA. Lopez also rank just outside to the Squids top 200 prospect list. The Otters also receiving a 3rd round draft pick is a bonus. The bigger question is, will Bailey have any 2020 draft picks left by the end of the season? Currently, he has four picks left, a 2nd (Jordan) 3rd (Team Canada) and two 5th rounders which aren’t worth much.
The winner to be determine, but pitching is hard to come by so maybe the 2018[and 2017] Points Champion knows more than me, which is probably the case.
Andrew’s thoughts: I love this trade for Marshall Law so, so much. It reminds me of the real-life Nationals/Rays/Padres trade for Trea Turner, where the Nats basically crashed a trade between the Rays and Padres and came away with the most appealing talent. Marshall gave up what I see as four lukewarm assets (Taveras seems like a low power guy whose speed doesn’t matter as much in our scoring; the other three pieces are pure lotto tickets) to get back two young, cheap impact pieces in Nimmo and Winker and a decent flier on Lamet, who was solid in 2017 before requiring Tommy John. Honestly, I’d rather have Nimmo or Winker alone than Bumgarner at $60 to keep or the package WBFD received.
For WBFD though, I get it. At $60, Bumgarner was a very likely cut as we’ve seen his skills and health begin to descend, and now there are even rumors he may be traded out of his hugely favorable home park. Steamer projections have Bumgarner as the 17th highest scoring pitcher for 2019, but that honestly seems a little rich to me. I’m just a little surprised he didn’t get the Nimmo/Winker package here. But if you’re going to cut a guy anyway, getting four zero-cost pieces like this is clearly better long-term.
And as for We Talk Fantasy Sports, well, I applaud the continued aggressive addition to try and compete in 2019. First it was Corey Kluber, then Dallas Keuchel, now Bumgarner. Still, while their pitching is very, very much improved, I look at that offense and wonder if it can possibly keep up. Losing Nimmo and Winker gives them two pretty big starting hitting holes, in my opinion, and Bumgarner might need to be prime Mad-Bum just to offset that.
Jordan’s thoughts: My goal here is to be the creme filling in this turd sandwich of a trade review. Obviously I have a hard on for Jesse Winker who I drafted with my first round pick back in our first minor league draft. He seems good now and the Reds let Billy Hamilton go.
I agree that projections have soured on Madison Bumgarner and that is not completely hard to understand. However, I’ll disagree with with figurative “buns” and say that Bumgarner at $60 is more than fair and particularly attractive. I think if you’re on top and have a salary crunch, perhaps you have a different perspective on market value.
I love the trade for Marshall Law and We Talk Fantasy Sports here. Marshall Law showing how a rebuild in this league should work. You build a core with current rising talent vs sacking a whole number of seasons for a wish and a hope. Which is what I think the WBFDs has done here. I don’t mind turning MadBum into a bunch of pieces. But the draft picks aren’t helping you soon, and the prospects are okay. Perhaps you get a good pitcher and a decent outfielder out of it in a season or two and perhaps those prospects turn into something too. But, odds are actually against you.
I think with any game you want to position yourself to win and a key step is identifying your win condition(s). WTFS appears to have found theirs with identifying needing a front line starter to help sway weeks in a head-to-head format. It works. ML identified needing to acquire useful assets while still acquiring points. Say these guys blossom, and you’re a piece or two away, they have assets they could push the chips in. It can work. WBFD identified needing to wait another three years. Has that worked ever?
Hustle’s Toxic $0.02: Well this was a super fun trade. I think in all my years of playing fantasy sports I’ve seen very few if any other legit three way trades. So for that, I applaud the ability to pull it off. I am truly inspired.
For WFBD: I think Gaut did OK here if you subscribe to the notion that Bumgarner is in a big decline. Streamer projects a near 4 ERA, FIP, and XFIP for Bumgarner in 2019 which makes a $60 investment in that subpar to say the least. If Bumgarner gets traded those numbers would have to be worse, unless its to the Astros. If Bumgarner is the guy he is projected to be, then getting a couple pieces for him seems fine. Gaut will have $60 to spend on Mike Leake and Mike Leake accessories in the auction as well as a couple neat picks. I’m not a fan of Taveras (as I stated in the first Taveras deal this offseason), seems like a long shot in being better than a replacement level OF here. I do think I like Bukauskas better than most so thats cool too. Getting some assets for a guy who should be borderline be cut based on performance seems like a good idea. If Bumgarner bounces back, Gaut may wonder if he could have gotten a bit more.
For WTFS: As Bailey stated, Keith’s rotation is much improved. Even if Bumgarner isn’t peak he’s still startable almost every time out. The team’s rotation went from arguably worst to above average through a course of trades this offseason, so that is indeed commendable. The offense is a work in progress and will be more difficult to fill after giving away two cheap promising OFers. Choo and Blackmon are nice OFers to have, but after that it kinda falls off. 1b, 3b, one OF and 2 UTIL spots have to be occupied by Sano, Shaw, Desmond, Happ, Calhoun, I’m not sure who the next best hitter is after these 5. Having these guys as starters in your lineup seems incredibly risky since 4/5 of them were a minus at their position last year. Keith will have to find someway to supplant this either by trade or auction. This team at least had a direction now and with proper attention could push for a playoff spot.
For ML: There’s a lot to like here. Winker could potentially be the best asset in the whole trade. as a $3 cost controlled OF batting near the top of the Reds lineup. If las year is any indication he’s a very solid OF to have and if his power trends up he’s potentially a beast. I think Nimmo was obviously tremendously underrated going into last season and was one of the best pickups of the year, but I think he could be a tad overrated in 2019. That being said, he seems like he has the floor of being perfectly acceptable OF depth, which is valuable. I think getting the Lamet flier is the perfect thing a rebuilding team should be doing, ad as a 3rd piece of a deal, seems great. I think these 3 pieces are probably better than a 1/2 rounder and Bukauskas, not a guarantee, but I love the odds.
Andrew’s thoughts: OK everyone, shut up and look at me.
Welcome to another Dynasty Grinders trade review. This trade has two players in it. One is decent, one is not. People acquired them and they are in this trade now. I believe that after this review is over, this trade will be forgotten. Why I am even reviewing this trade is beyond me.
I also think it’s pointless for a human to review these trades when they can just log into Fantrax and do them.
Anyway, please do not misinterpret the fact that I am reviewing this trade as genuine interest in this trade and attempt to discuss it with me further. End of review.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
I like this trade more for the Trumpas and maybe even the Loompas. Odublel isn’t some game changing piece, but a useful CF player who will get a lot of PAs. He’s also cheap to keep. Shed long seems fine, but not on the Hustle Media Top 100 list. I think I’ve heard he’s probably a utility guy. Not a big loss, but rather have the affordable major leaguer. If you’re high on this particular prospect, than the trade makes a lot of sense for The Process, which has lost Trust.
P Tyler Phillips (prospect)
P Ramon Rosso (prospect)
Jordan’s thoughts: I owned stock in Kendrys Morales late last season in a different league and he went on to hit homers in eight straight games during a playoff run. It was neat. Overall last season Morales was pretty poor for a 1B/UT player. He’s not expensive, not a drain on your roster, but apparently he hits better blind.
This deal literally cost Bailey nothing. These pitcher prospects boast FVs of 40 and 35+ and neither are top 20 for their respective teams. They’re below AA and while something could get them on the hype train, it’s not a shoe in.
I like this deal for Bailey. Even if he cuts Morales prior to the draft, he gave up nothing. If he keeps Morales, it probably means he got a decent haul for Nelson Cruz. Win win for him. I assume Keith sees something in one or both guys to be excited about the deal. If so great good for him too.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
This is probably the worst trade off the offseason so far. Keith managed to trade away a much cheaper better Kendrys Morales for nothing while giving away some small but actual assets for a much more expensive much shittier Ian Desmond. I would rather have a 2nd round pick, Clint Frazier, OR Kendrys Morales than Ian Desmond, Ramon Rosso, or Tyler Phillip. It’s not even close really. If I had all 3 of the latter pieces, I would BUNDLE them for any one of the three former in a heartbeat.
The prospects here are truly useless. I can’t imagine what Bailey said or Keith read to have needed these guys. Between Rosso and Phillips you’re looking at a 20 % one of them is a bad pitcher in the majors in 2-3 years, which is an asset in abundance on the waiver wire. Meanwhile Morales has value as a bat who you can start at 1B or in either of your two utility spots vs righties. Morales had a monster 2nd half and while he’s no spring chicken and could decline, the price was right compared to other guys acquired this offseason for WTFS.
If you read my review of Kremer for Zimmerman, this is like that but worse because Keith paid assets earlier for a much worse and more expensive 1b than either Morales/Zimmerman and at the same time managed to get a worse pitching prospect than the 4th best Orioles pitching prospect. I’d have Kremer ahead of Rosso just because at least he’s in AA and was a Dodger at one point. In no way am I writing off the careers of Rosso or Phillips, heck I owned Phillips once, but these are no different than guys who can be picked up at will or with 5th round picks.
Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away SP Duffy, Danny $10 2020 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Long ball to LF (Johnnywise))
The Foundation trades away
SS Lux, Gavin
Hustle’s Toxic $.02I rather have Lux than Danny Duffy, who ended his season with a shoulder impingement. That being said, thats probably a my team sort of thing. Jordan went into last season with Gio Gonzalez as his staff ace and not a whole much behind it. Getting Duffy and Ivan Nova to keep for under $20 seems like a massive improvement. Neither are Aces (and I’ll let Bailey review the Nova deal) but both are quite useful in this league.
Maybe everyone is afraid of the auction this year so they spend their money before, but if I walked away from last season’s auction with a healthy Duffy and Nova for $19 I would have been dancing. I’d say every team needs about 8-10 starters, so approximately 144 should be owned. These two guys have both shown at times they could be weekly starts and their spots in their own major league rotation are pretty safe. I’m not going to do a pitchers rankings, but both guys are somewhere between 70-120 best pitchers with a chance to leap that in a good season.
Lux is a nice prospect, might have been The Foundation’s best one, so that’s a little tough to see parted with for Duffy, but Jordan’s team should be able to compete better next year. As a Dodger Fan, I naturally like Lux. Posting a 147 WRC+ across two levels last year including make it to AA, he could be a modest power hitting middle infielder for the Dodgers in 202 with a very good approach.
Andrew’s thoughts: I’m not a big Danny Duffy fan, but it’s hard to quibble too much over a decent pitcher under $10. And Duffy’s decent. He’s just got a bunch of injury flags and he’s not a guy you’ll ever totally trust from start to start. For Jordan, this seems like a fine investment. Getting the second round pick also softens the blow of losing whatever Gavin Lux is as a prospect. I suspect you can get a comparable prospect with that pick.
For Long Ball, Lux likely just has more future trade value than Duffy, and he’s got enough pitching so as to not really need Duffy anyway. Worst case, he’s out a useful but not spectacular pitcher and instead has a future cost controlled asset, which will pay dividends if he can then surround them with salary dumps in exchange for inferior players or turd prospects.
Jordan’s thoughts: Upton is a tiny stretch at the 50 dollar plus mark for his 850 points last year and 808 point projection next year. The projection does seem oddly pessimistic for the 31-year-old outfielder. Anything like 2017 or even 2018 with a few more games played and he’s easily worth the auction price tag.
Mountcastle is the number 2 prospect for one of the worst farm systems in the majors. He’s likely to make it at some point. He did hit a decent 121 wRC+ in AA as a 21-year-old last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Orioles give him a shot in 2019, but he seems years away from being meaningfully useful.
I like this trade for TBD more so than Evil Otters. I get what Otters is doing and spending a slight premium for an All-Star capable of being great again isn’t a bad idea. I just have experience the with Upton brothers and I would rather miss on them.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02: Let us take a trip down Mountcastle Lane
Team Hydra trades away 2018 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Team Hydra) Mountcastle, Ryan
Preseason Double Stuffs trades away Mountcastle, Ryan
Capital City Ironmen trades away
Chirinos, Yonny Mountcastle, Ryan
Evil Otters trades away
TBD trades away
Upton, Justin ($56+)
Evil Otters trades away
Mountcastle, Ryan (ML)
Death, Taxes, Trading for Ryan Mountcastle. A Dynasty Grinders tradition like no other. Owned my nearly 1/3 of the league. In the hearts of 16/16 teams. His quest to the majors is a journey we are now all invested in.
I like this trade for the team that won’t name itself. They were going to cut Upton and find themselves in a rare position of not having prospects, so they picked up on who should certainly be owned. Well at least they think he should be owned, and the 4 previous owners did too.
I also like this trade for Kyle. I’m sure if Bailey would be writing this review he’d give much praise to Kyle for being competitive and buying. He’d have some sort of snarky remark about how more teams are tanking than competing. Me on the other hand? I take some weird glee in watching the auction get weaker and weaker.
“But Hustle, Mike Leake went for $35 dollars last year, do you really want to see that happen?”
Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Musgrove, Joe 2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids)
Senior Squids trades away
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
The nice thing I’ll say about this trade is that I do like it more than the last one. Paxton is a more volatile asset than Gary Sanchez is, thus I think it’s a better piece to trade if you’re rebuilding/tanking. Elton took my advice from the last review in trading Paxton. I still think it would be preferable to have made this trade rather than and instead of the last one.
That being said, I still think this isn’t a great trade, but it’s not awful. It’s basically a downgrade from a near ace level pitcher in Paxton to whatever Musgrove is with a wild card shot on Wright or Oneil being something. If Oneill becomes a middle of the order bopper year in and year out and Musgrove is a top 30ish pitcher, then it probably works out ok for him. That still seems like a lot of risk of both those things happening rather than Paxton just staying good. Paxton could get hurt, but Musgrove is no stranger to injuries either. Seems risky with not a ton of upside unless you think Paxton isn’t built to hold up for a few years or that Musgrove will become close to his tier of a player. Which I suppose is possible!
I still have trouble seeing how this puts Elton in a better position to beat the teams he made stronger in 2019 and beyond. Senior Squids finally has a top 10 farm, and their best course now is to let his prospects marinate and hopefully next year flip them for an elite asset like Gary Sanchez or James Paxton. This trade reminds me a lot of the Pirates trading Gerit Cole, when they sought elite future assets and ended up with… Joe Musgrove.
For Long Ball, this seems like a no brainer move. Sure Paxton has injury risk, but so does Musgrove. Every trade has inherent risks, but this seems like a pretty safe bet. With a rotation of Nola, Paxton, and Greinke, the Long Balls look to be serious contenders now and in the future.
James Paxton is a weird guy to value. He’s obviously very, very good, but he’s also constantly hurt. He’s never thrown more than 136 innings and I feel like if you’re buying him, you’re probably worried he won’t be available when it matters most (H2H playoff time). At the same time… he costs only $10, $12 minimum to keep, and that is effectively nothing. Even if he gets greeded up to $20, that’s peanuts for a player of his caliber. He could miss all of 2019 for whatever reason and still be cheap enough to keep into 2020. I guess what I’m saying is, he’s riskier than your average pitcher, but his price and ability outweigh a good majority of that risk. I agree with Hustle’s general sentiment that, for a rebuilding team, Paxton is the most obvious chip to move (and that he should’ve been traded first and instead of franchise piece Gary Sanchez).
On the other side, Joe Musgrove also appears to be an injury risk. He’s only pitched in four MLB games this year after battling injuries all winter and spring. I like Musgrove, but I’m a little shocked he’s the main piece in a deal for a Paxton-like stud. I’m having flashbacks to Lewis Brinson — in other words, a guy who pops up on the trade block sporadically for months, then is suddenly headlining a deal for a star. In this case, three of Musgrove’s four starts have been good, so I guess that’s enough to make him valuable.
In essence, Long Ball paid three prospects — O’Neill, Wright, and a pick — to upgrade Musgrove to Paxton. And I love it. He had to do it. He didn’t, in my opinion, touch any of his premium prospects to get this deal done (if I’m Squids and trading Paxton to Long Ball, I’m getting Juan Soto or Bo Bichette back or I’m shopping really hard elsewhere). Musgrove seems good, but Paxton is elite. To me, Tyler O’Neill is a depth piece in our league. The power will play, but his cost control clock has already started ticking and he’s on a team that doesn’t have room for him. Is he just a fourth outfielder? Kyle Wright ranked 24th on FanGraphs’ new prospect list, but I don’t know much about him. He’s a pitcher, and if I’m tanking this year and probably next as Squids appears to be doing, I’m just not pumped to do it all around pitchers.
Ultimately I can’t escape the feeling here that Squids decided Paxton had to go ASAP and just took whatever offer looked best. Yeah, Paxton’s risky, but given his performance and cost, literally every team should have shown interest. Paxton is more valuable to even a rebuilding team than almost any prospect or combo of 2-3 prospects. I’d love to know if any “rebuilding” teams inquired. I know Squids has taken some pleasure in trying to play the “top teams” against each other as he tears down, but the market for Paxton should’ve been vast and the return just seems underwhelming. Oh well. Paxton’s arm could melt off at any moment (he had forearm cramping during his last start!) and this deal could then look fantastic simply by virtue of getting something. There aren’t a lot of studs in the league for under $20, but Paxton’s one of them and injury history be damned, I feel like he should’ve fetched a Bichette, Soto, or some prospect of that ilk a tier or two below the Vlads and Acunas of the world. Kyle Wright feels very blah to me. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out and if injuries play a role in the narrative.