Trade: Marshall Law | H-Town Trashcan Punch

Marshall Law trades away
SS Elvis Andrus ($23)

H-Town Trashcan Punch trades away
CF Estevan Florial (prospect)
SS Osleivis Basabe (prospect)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

🤷‍♂️

I feel like Marshall Law was definitely cutting $23 Elvis Andrus even though he now has no other SS on the roster. So this way, he at least gets something back. These prospects aren’t much, but Estevan Florial was at least on lists for a while and Osleivis Basabe presumably has as much upside as Misael Urbina, who he just traded away. The prospects in an Andrus trade are comparable or better than the ones in an Aaron Nola trade, even when only $15 salary separates the two players, what a world.

For H-Town, this is a little weird in that Andrus is his fourth shortstop (behind Manny Machado, who I assume he’s keeping, maybe not, Kevin Newman, and Luis Urias), but whatever. Depth is good. He obviously didn’t value these two prospects inherited from previous ownership and I can’t say I blame him. Might he have gotten Andrus cheaper at auction? Sure. Likely. But in my opinion it’s always better to enter auction needing less with fewer dollars to spend, rather than needing to buy 80% of a starting lineup with extra money to spend like Senior Squids or Who’s Your Haddy?.

Fair trade with two winners. The only loser here is me, for writing this review.

Trade: Long Ball to LF | Marshall Law

Marshall Law trades away
SP Dinelson Lamet ($5; cost controlled)
RF Misael Urbina (prospect)
1B Pavin Smith (prospect)

Long Ball to LF trades away
SP Aaron Nola ($38)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

On the surface this trade looks lopsided. Aaron Nola is just 26-years-old, Steamer projects him as a top-15 overall pitcher in 2020, and he has consecutive 1,000+ point seasons on his resume. He checks every box as a top Dynasty Grinders asset (more on this in a moment). On the other side, there are two blah prospects and a spring training hype guy coming off Tommy John surgery who still carries a fair amount of reliever risk. This looks to be in favor of Marshall Law.

I do think it’s key to note the $33 savings here. This trade got Long Ball under $500 and that savings likely buys him at least another year of Kenta Maeda ($30), Michael Brantley ($29), or one of his higher priced pieces like Josh Donaldson ($77) or Zack Greinke ($67) that he’s been shopping. Those guys don’t show up in the Trade Accepted email, but they were no doubt a factor. My guess is, since Long Ball had listed all those guys on his trade block, there was zero interest across the board (because players that have salaries have cooties), so he ultimately sold whichever guy actually brought something back and that happened to be Nola. I’d argue the only “something” in this deal is Lamet, as the two prospects seem fairly disinteresting to me. Urbina is fine and has some long-term upside, Smith seems boring as a 1B-only with only 50 grade power. Whatever. It continuously blows my mind that upper tier players are traded in this league for churn-able prospects. Long Ball couldn’t get Vidal Brujan? Jazz Chisholm? As a rule of thumb, if a sub-$40 1,000 point player is traded, the prospects involved should really be guys Jordan has heard of before. Also, I probably would’ve rather just cut Maeda or Greinke or Brantley and kept Nola and missed out on Lamet. But the sum of Lamet plus whichever one of those guys would’ve been cut is probably close enough to Nola’s 2020 production to at least make the logical leap here.

I guess I’m mainly confused as to why a package headlined by Lamet and filled out by two prospects outside the top-250 was really the high offer.

Given Nola’s age, cost, and resume, he should’ve been coveted by literally every team, even the perpetual tankers. He was on the block publicly, so it’s not like his availability wasn’t known. I personally did not inquire on Nola, mainly because I’m sitting at $500 in keepers and The Bundle™ has ruined my mobility (weird how those rule changes that were met with such disgust ultimately did my team no favors), but I even sort of regret it now seeing this price. I could’ve probably afforded to punt a hitter to make room if push came to shove. If Long Ball waited until after auction, I would’ve probably thrown any prospects and picks he wanted at Nola and that terrifying $38 salary. Oh well.

How many other teams sat on the sidelines here? I guess people assumed the price would be too high and the mere thought of trading relevant prospects is unfathomable, but Urbina and Smith seem like fringe prospects at best right now. TBD and HLR will no doubt pick up far superior prospects for free throughout the season. Marshall will easily pick up better or comparable prospects to replace these guys himself. Even if Lamet meets his recent hype, Nola’s still likely to outscore him in 2020 and even teams like Senior Squids and We Talk Fantasy Sports and Who’s Your Haddy, who don’t intend to compete in the next half decade, should have been lining up here and could have probably beat this offer quite handily. You’re not getting a better asset than Nola at auction, so if that’s your game plan, good luck trying. If you were clinging to legitimate prospects out of fear of adding a whopping $38 in salary, well… whoops. And if you were out on Nola because you’re punting 2020, I guess I’m confused what the game plan is for 2021+ when you have no established good players in place when your prospects theoretically start getting promoted. The Bundle™ made Aaron Nola available for a low price and still no one with salary room took advantage? Hmm…

Overall, I like this deal for Marshall Law. If Lamet pans out, it probably buys Long Ball an extra player this year and next, maybe one more beyond that. For now I’ll gladly take the Nola side though.

Trade: Marshall Law | Senior Squids

Senior Squids trades away
CF/RF Avisail Garcia ($10)

Marshall Law trades away
3B Kyle Seager ($33)

HUSTLE’s toxic $0.02

This trade isn’t as cut and dry as Avisail is $23 cheaper, so this is a win for Marshall. Maybe it is. Elton certainly has a crater at 3b right with just Tommy Edman as his starting 3b (use to be cost controlled Matt Chapman). Seager was a beast in the second half and spending $33 for anything close to that 2nd half seems pretty fine, especially at the cost of Avisail Garcia who has been traded probably half a dozen times in our league’s history. Yes, Avisail is a former HLR legend (as is half the league at this point). I like Avisail a decent amount, and going to Milwaukee certainly helps. That being said, Avisail won’t be an every day player and Seager will be, so I think that mitigated at least some of the price difference. The auction money really doesn’t matter unless you’re trying to fit in an additional really good player, so I don’t see the price as a big deal. Seager helps Elton’s team more this year than Avisail was and committing a year to that contract doesn’t seem like a big deal. Marshall probably wasn’t keeping a $33 Seager to backup Moncada, but with no backup now he will look for a cheaper replacement in auction or the wire. I think both owners here did a good adding roster depth to their own teams at the cost of surplus on their own.

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

After trading cost controlled stud 3Bman Matt Chapman away for a Mariners prospect without first listing him on the trade block to surely ignite a bidding war, Senior Squids needed a 3Bman. Kyle Seager is a pretty good one. Prior to 2018, he was one of the best, most consistent guys in the league and in the second half of 2019 he looked like that same guy. I think he’s overpriced, but Squids is in a spot to potentially take a bunch of money to auction which seems like a recipe for disaster even though The Bundle has ensured this will be our strongest auction ever. May as well add pieces now. Squids announced publicly in Slack a while ago that he didn’t intend to compete in 2020, so one path here is that immediately after auction he could shop Seager to teams with high salaries like mine that can’t currently add much and get more than he paid here. Salary stuff aside, Seager is more appealing to contenders than Avisail in 2020, right? I guess there’s a debate to be had there but I lean yes.

Anyway, this trade seems okay for both teams if you don’t believe the $23 difference between the two players matters much. Clearly, Marshall believes it does (let’s be honest, he was cutting Seager) and Elton believes it doesn’t. I like a good challenge trade. Shrugging emoji.

Trade: TBD | Jobu Needs a Refill

TBD trades away
3B Gio Urshela ($7)
Two 2020 4th Round Picks

JobuNeedsARefill trades away
SS Alexander Vargas (prospect)
Two 2020 2nd Round Picks

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

I like this deal for Jobu, adding a cheap 3Bman that put up a .369 wOBA last year. Honestly, I’m not a big Gio Urshela believer. He ran a high BABIP, doesn’t walk much, and probably got a lot of his power from the bouncy ball that may or may not return in 2020. I’m also not sure about his playing time. Having said all that, he’s undeniably a 28-year-old that costs a measly $7 and put up 1.548 points per plate appearance last year. That is all very good and I think you’re better off betting on real, actual production that just happened than on future picks. It’s still crazy to me that the league collectively looks at players that just did what Urshela did, then at his cost, and still seem to prefer fringe prospects that won’t debut for several years. So good on Jobu for taking the gamble that 2019 was legit. If it’s not, oh well, he’s out three prospects that won’t debut until sometime after MLB’s labor strike anyway.

For TBD, they seemingly don’t believe in Urshela either and will happily take a decent Yankee prospect and more picks to either strengthen one of the best farms in the league or flip whoever they draft to Senior Squids or Trumpa Loompas for whoever their best player is in May. It’s smart and I respect it. Good job, Josh.

The biggest loser in this trade is me, because four picks being moved means I had to update the draft sheet four times. I hated every second of it.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

After reading Bailey’s review I have some thoughts. 1) Does anyone want to make a trade with just draft picks involved and 2) Where were you when Gio Urshella was on the block?

I prefer the picks here, because I don’t really believe in Urshella as more than just an average 3bman.  Personally, I think one 2nd rounder should have been able to get it done.  That being said, taking Urshella seems like a fine gamble for Jobu to make here.  I think the Yankees will start him at 3b and if he hits anything close to like he did last year, he will stay, I’d lean he doesn’t.  Either way, ultimately Seems Fine™️.

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | Senior Squids

Capital City Ironmen trades away

  • Santana, Danny

Senior Squids trades away

  • Pederson, Joc
Senior Squids trades away

  • Moustakas, Mike

Capital City Ironmen trades away

  • Thomas, Alek

Jordan’s Thoughts

I find it pretty amusing that there’s back to back 1 for 1 deals between the same two teams. But, it happened. First, Danny Santana has broken all projections and just continues to prove the old adage that you can’t predict baseball. He’s only 28 years old somehow and probably pretty valuable.

Projection systems still believe a huge regression is coming and while he’s still going to be valuable as a .310-.330 wOBA player, its not likely he keeps up the .388 pace. Which is probably why Bailey traded him off for Joc who is having a good year with a .344 wOBA and is projected to improve the rest of the way. Its not a clear win for Bailey, but I’m leaning that way.

The other deal is the more peculiar one. Alek Thomas is a 50 FV prospect with an ETA 2022. 60 Hit, 40 game power… He is in the top 100 and hitting the ball in A ball. All seems fine. He’s a good prospect, probably worth having.

What’s also worth having is a 800 point hitter who costs less than $30. That’s what 30 year old Mike Moustakas is. Moustakas has consistently been good for a while now, while he does get streaky (plays hurt). The floor is high, consistent, and the ceiling is actually still fairly high. His keeper value is cheap and I just don’t get it. Alek Thomas needs to be really good three-four years from now for this to make sense. If Thomas is acquired to be a bullet to shoot into a trade for next year, I’d just rather have Moustakas next year.

I guess Thomas will be 27 in 2027, so that fits the window.

Trade: Organized Chaos | JobuNeedsARefill

Organized Chaos trades away

  • SP Tyler Mahle ($5.50)
  • SP Nick Neidert

JobuNeedsARefill trades away

  • 2021 3rd Round Pick
  • RF Kyle Lewis
  • CF Mickey Moniak

BAILEY’s Thoughts

This is an interesting deal for both teams. For Jobu, I think getting $7-to-keep Tyler Mahle is a nice, cheap flier for 2020 and beyond. Mahle is currently averaging 25.14 points per start which, last time I checked, was a tick above average. As has been beaten into all of our heads, inexpensive average or better — sometimes even slightly below average — starters are real commodities. So adding Mahle, in the wise words of Jordan Gillis, “seems fine.”

Nick Neidert is, as I told Organized Chaos when he was offering him to me repeatedly, pretty much nothing. He’s been surpassed in the Marlins system by a half dozen other pitchers and unless he was getting called up tomorrow, I wouldn’t personally want to roster him. Moving on…

Mickey Moniak and Kyle Lewis are relics of the 2016 MLB Draft. Both have failed to live up to the hype, but they seem to maybe, possibly, hopefully be turning a corner this year. Moniak has a 121 WRC at AA this year, so yay, he’s an above average hitter in the minors for the first time since 2016. Kyle Lewis, who somehow is 24 years old already, has a 117 WRC+ at AA. Hooray, he’s an above average hitter for the first time since 2017. I mean… neither guy is doing anything spectacular and I’m not sure either is even a top 200 prospect at this point. But they have prospect pedigree and what not, so maybe they become something. With Lewis, he also has the bonus of being a Seattle Mariner prospect, so when Senior Squids decides to host his next fire sale and rebuild the rebuild of his rebuild, you can maybe flip Lewis to him for a cost controlled stud like Matt Chapman or something. Oh man, I’m gonna be blacklisted again.

Overall, my slightly respectful but unapologetic opinion is that this is a fair swap for both teams.

Trade: Senior Squids | TBD

TBD trades away

  • Marte, Noelvi (prospect)
  • White, Evan (prospect)
  • Kelenic, Jarred (prospect)
  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 1 (TBD)

Senior Squids trades away

  • Chapman, Matt $9.03

Jordan’s thoughts: Any time you can take a top 20, possibly top 10 asset in the entire league anf turn it into a trio of Mariners prospects and a draft pick you can use to draft another, you have to do it, right?  

No. No you don’t.

Let’s look at Matt Chapman. He’s clearly old at 26 and 2 months. Last year he was a 137 wRC+, .369 wOBA hitter. This year, half way through, he’s been a 137 wRC+, .372 wOBA player. He’s walking slightly more. Striking out slightly less. Hitting way more homers. 

That’s a fun guy to own. An even better guy to have in the cost controlled setting of Dynasty Grinders. He’s currently the 40th highest scoring player. There’s 11 guys currently cost controlled with more points scored. Chapman IS THE GUY that you build around. He just is.

So, the return… Jarred Kelenic (last year’s 6th overall pick in our draft, a pick Squids traded to TBD for Ryan O’Hearn 🤯) lit Mariners twitter on fire early on the season by destroying Single-A ball hitting a 179 wRC+ in 50 games. He got promoted and as a 19-year-young hitter, his first 20 games in High-A has been 99 wRC+. Not awful, he’s young for the league, will probably catch up. But he’s already showing that he’s not the Juan Soto/Ronald Acuna type prospect that’s going to debut at 19 in MLB. He needs time and seasoning. The hit tools are there. He’s probably a good fantasy asset down the line.

Evan White is currently 23-years-old and has been doing alright in Double-A ball for the Mariners system. Another top 100 prospects on the FanGraphs lists and projects to be an average 1Bman that our league has come to love. He has the tools and talents to be some what of an asset in the future, but at 23 in double-A, the ceiling is just lower.

Noelvi Marte is 17-years-young and in rookie ball hitting slightly above average for the level with a 113 wRC+ in 23 games played. Scouts like his hit tools, but he’s not lighting up the charts or looking anything much more than a potential slow climbing prospect. Good to have, yet typically easy to find and acquire. 

Now, based on my simple player review, you are probably gathering that this a slam dunk, what the fuck, how did TBD do this kind of deal. And if you assumed that, well you’re right. 

TBD, currently at 11-2 in the league, sitting in first place, adds a cheap fantasy star for nickels on the dollar. Chapman is the best player in this deal now. Likely the best player in this deal four years from now. Possibly (probably) the best player in this deal in 2027 as a 34 year old. Even if the prospects were better, you still do this type of deal to acquire this kind of player. 100 out of 100 times. 

Senior Squids is currently in 9th place, sitting at 6-7 on the path to mediocrity again. It sucks that things have not broken the right way and the motivation to retool/build for next season seems tempting. The problem is that the obvious plan is to build around guys like Matt Chapman, not give them away to save like $20 of budget and assume the risk of a prospect. If you want to trade an asset like Chapman, the return should be major league ready cost controlled players who are on the rise, PLUS this same minor league package. If you’re not getting that…

HOLD THE ASSET.

I’m sorry, the best plan here for either team is to have Matt Chapman. If you’re concerned about some fluke and having so much stock in one player and you REALLY want to diversify the asset, you have to get more than this. If more does not exist, just hold. Don’t cave into the market that you are forcing yourself into.

Have a plan. Develop the plan. Otherwise you’re on a captainless ship, swaying back and forth in the seas heading in no clear direction based on gut calls hoping to find land. Maybe you luck out. Good luck. 

Return of trade reviews.

Yep, they need to happen. The league was born from it. We went soft and catered to the bullshit. If anything it gets discussion going. I’m willing to eat every single word in this post, printed out on paper (and I hate printing internet things) if the return here wins Squids or the Mariners a championship.

Rockies 1B “Trade”: Hustle Loyalty Respect | We Talk Fantasy Sports | Senior Squids

Hustle Loyalty Respect gets:
Rockies 1B Daniel Murphy ($24; priceless)

We Talk Fantasy Sports gives:
Back-up LF/1B Ian Desmond ($28)

Senior Squids has:
1B Eric Hosmer ($32)

Andrew’s thoughts: Wow, what an exciting turn of events. The race to be the Rockies’ first baseman seems to have ended, and Hustle Loyalty Respect’s Daniel Murphy is the lucky winner. Johnny Hustle be all like:

Literally overnight, Murphy’s value skyrocketed. His Steamer projection went way, way up. Check this out:

For Hustle Loyalty Respect, this is a windfall. This is easily the greatest thing that’s happened in his franchise’s illustrious history. He “traded” literally nothing to land the DAMN Rockies first baseman. Truly incredible. We’re talking unprecedented luck here. I just love this “trade” for HLR. When you can add an asset like this in exchange for nothing… just, wow. 

For We Talk Fantasy Sports, well, I don’t understand this “trade” at all. They are actually going to be paying Ian Desmond, back-up 1B and possible platoon LF, the only hitter to ever go to Coors Field and get significantly worse, $4 more than the actual Rockies 1B. I’m referring to Daniel Murphy of HLR, to be clear. Just as Murphy’s projection went way up overnight, Desmond’s projection went way down. He lost nearly 100 projected points and is now projected to amass as many points as someone named… *squints*… Austin Dean. 

But as bad as this “trade” is for WTFS, it’s even worse somehow for Senior Squids. Not only did he not get the Rockies 1B. But instead, he has Eric Hosmer at an astounding cost of $32. Yes, that’s right, Eric Hosmer. Over the last full three seasons of baseball, Hosmer ranks second among all qualified hitters with a 58.2% ground ball rate. Only — OH SHIT! — Ian Desmond has a worse ground ball rate, at 58.6%. Sure, there’s some hope for Hosmer. Why, you ask? Here’s why: Hosmer has 5,070 career plate appearances. And as we all know, power comes later in the career. In fact, every power hitter in baseball history took more than 5,000 plate appearances to learn how to hit home runs. Barry Bonds had just four home runs at the 5,070 career plate appearances mark. He went on, as we all know, to hit 758 more from there. No bull, just facts. 

Over the last two years, Eric Hosmer has hit 43 home runs. That’s 33 fewer than, oh… *draws name from hat*… Nelson Cruz, who by the way has hit 43 or more dingers in a single season twice. But he’s old and expensive (a whopping $8 more than Eric “Slow Roller to Short” Hosmer) though, and as we all know, we subtract points in this league based on age. 

So in summation, I like this trade for HLR. Any time you can get the Rockies 1B instead of Ian Desmond or Eric Hosmer, you just have to do it.

Jordan’s thoughts: I’ve never heard of the two prospects in this “trade,” but Daniel Murphy seems good.

Trade: The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses | Marshall Law

The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses gets:
SP Max Fried ($3)

Marshall Law gets:
1B/LF Matt Adams ($5)

Andrew’s thoughts: I do not know if either of these players would have been kept or cut by their respective teams. Only Senior Squids truly knows that. Either way, here they are now, a bench hitter and a relief pitcher, traded for one another. And quite honestly, I’m riveted. 

I think both teams are winners here, because both teams got to experience the magnificent rush of completing a trade.

Jordan’s thoughts: The moment Matt Adams signed with Washington and was no longer an option for the next COLORADO ROCKIES 1B, I stopped caring about him.

Trade: Senior Squids | The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses

Senior Squids trade away:

  • 1B Evan White (ML)
  • P Franklin Perez (ML)

The Wildfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses trade away:

Jordan’s thoughts: Squids trades here, two top 200 prospects for an expensive 1B that needs a bounce-back. Hosmer went from Kansas City to San Diego and got worse. He was already borderline average or worse. Perhaps Squids noticed the trend that is Hosmer’s roller coaster career:

  • 2011 – 113 wRC+
  • 2012 – 80 wRC+
  • 2013 – 120 wRC+
  • 2014 – 98 wRC+
  • 2015 – 124 wRC+
  • 2016 – 102 wRC+
  • 2017 – 135 wRC+
  • 2018 – 95 wRC+
  • 2019 – ???

Steamer currently says 110. If it is 110, its okay. If he’s back to 120 or 130 its pretty good. The prospects are fine, but easily replaceable. I wouldn’t personally bet on Hosmer bouncing back in 2019 in a way that makes this an easy keep. But, I’m fine with other people doing so. I’m more fine selling him for two prospects that are easy to require like punting a Hosmer.

Andrew’s thoughts: I’m 100% out on Eric Hosmer as a fantasy asset. He’s only 29 so maybe he FIGURES IT OUT, but this dude has a 109 WRC+ with more than 5,000 career plate appearances. He hits the ball on the ground too much, offers zero year over year consistency (unless you buy into the “every other year he’s good” thing), and plays 1B, a position where you really need a guy that can mash. To me, Hosmer’s draw is that he plays every day. That’s it. That’s not the kind of player I’m into.

Having said that, Evan White and Franklin Perez don’t seem like much to me and if Hosmer gets plopped back into auction, $32 is probably the ballpark for what he gets paid. I wouldn’t want to pay him that, but if the pool is garbage, you may have to. A wise man once told me that the auction will be a blood bath.

I guess I don’t see a definite winner here, really. Squids paid a little to lock up a depth piece with I suppose some semblance of upside (Hosmer’s .376 wOBA in 2017 was a thing that happened, after all) in exchange for two lotto tickets. I’m sure WBFD saw all the flaws in Hosmer’s game and the salary and just said, screw it, I’ll take these two prospects.

Having said all that, this deal is available to both teams the first week of February, right? Like, Squids could have saved these two bullets to see if something better comes along and WBFD could’ve held on to see if perhaps Hosmer gets traded to the Rockies, yes? Eh, whatever.