Trade: TBD | Jobu Needs a Refill

TBD trades away
3B Gio Urshela ($7)
Two 2020 4th Round Picks

JobuNeedsARefill trades away
SS Alexander Vargas (prospect)
Two 2020 2nd Round Picks

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

I like this deal for Jobu, adding a cheap 3Bman that put up a .369 wOBA last year. Honestly, I’m not a big Gio Urshela believer. He ran a high BABIP, doesn’t walk much, and probably got a lot of his power from the bouncy ball that may or may not return in 2020. I’m also not sure about his playing time. Having said all that, he’s undeniably a 28-year-old that costs a measly $7 and put up 1.548 points per plate appearance last year. That is all very good and I think you’re better off betting on real, actual production that just happened than on future picks. It’s still crazy to me that the league collectively looks at players that just did what Urshela did, then at his cost, and still seem to prefer fringe prospects that won’t debut for several years. So good on Jobu for taking the gamble that 2019 was legit. If it’s not, oh well, he’s out three prospects that won’t debut until sometime after MLB’s labor strike anyway.

For TBD, they seemingly don’t believe in Urshela either and will happily take a decent Yankee prospect and more picks to either strengthen one of the best farms in the league or flip whoever they draft to Senior Squids or Trumpa Loompas for whoever their best player is in May. It’s smart and I respect it. Good job, Josh.

The biggest loser in this trade is me, because four picks being moved means I had to update the draft sheet four times. I hated every second of it.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

After reading Bailey’s review I have some thoughts. 1) Does anyone want to make a trade with just draft picks involved and 2) Where were you when Gio Urshella was on the block?

I prefer the picks here, because I don’t really believe in Urshella as more than just an average 3bman.  Personally, I think one 2nd rounder should have been able to get it done.  That being said, taking Urshella seems like a fine gamble for Jobu to make here.  I think the Yankees will start him at 3b and if he hits anything close to like he did last year, he will stay, I’d lean he doesn’t.  Either way, ultimately Seems Fine™️.

Trade: Capital City Ironmen | Senior Squids

Capital City Ironmen trades away

  • Santana, Danny

Senior Squids trades away

  • Pederson, Joc
Senior Squids trades away

  • Moustakas, Mike

Capital City Ironmen trades away

  • Thomas, Alek

Jordan’s Thoughts

I find it pretty amusing that there’s back to back 1 for 1 deals between the same two teams. But, it happened. First, Danny Santana has broken all projections and just continues to prove the old adage that you can’t predict baseball. He’s only 28 years old somehow and probably pretty valuable.

Projection systems still believe a huge regression is coming and while he’s still going to be valuable as a .310-.330 wOBA player, its not likely he keeps up the .388 pace. Which is probably why Bailey traded him off for Joc who is having a good year with a .344 wOBA and is projected to improve the rest of the way. Its not a clear win for Bailey, but I’m leaning that way.

The other deal is the more peculiar one. Alek Thomas is a 50 FV prospect with an ETA 2022. 60 Hit, 40 game power… He is in the top 100 and hitting the ball in A ball. All seems fine. He’s a good prospect, probably worth having.

What’s also worth having is a 800 point hitter who costs less than $30. That’s what 30 year old Mike Moustakas is. Moustakas has consistently been good for a while now, while he does get streaky (plays hurt). The floor is high, consistent, and the ceiling is actually still fairly high. His keeper value is cheap and I just don’t get it. Alek Thomas needs to be really good three-four years from now for this to make sense. If Thomas is acquired to be a bullet to shoot into a trade for next year, I’d just rather have Moustakas next year.

I guess Thomas will be 27 in 2027, so that fits the window.

Trade: Organized Chaos | JobuNeedsARefill

Organized Chaos trades away

  • SP Tyler Mahle ($5.50)
  • SP Nick Neidert

JobuNeedsARefill trades away

  • 2021 3rd Round Pick
  • RF Kyle Lewis
  • CF Mickey Moniak

BAILEY’s Thoughts

This is an interesting deal for both teams. For Jobu, I think getting $7-to-keep Tyler Mahle is a nice, cheap flier for 2020 and beyond. Mahle is currently averaging 25.14 points per start which, last time I checked, was a tick above average. As has been beaten into all of our heads, inexpensive average or better — sometimes even slightly below average — starters are real commodities. So adding Mahle, in the wise words of Jordan Gillis, “seems fine.”

Nick Neidert is, as I told Organized Chaos when he was offering him to me repeatedly, pretty much nothing. He’s been surpassed in the Marlins system by a half dozen other pitchers and unless he was getting called up tomorrow, I wouldn’t personally want to roster him. Moving on…

Mickey Moniak and Kyle Lewis are relics of the 2016 MLB Draft. Both have failed to live up to the hype, but they seem to maybe, possibly, hopefully be turning a corner this year. Moniak has a 121 WRC at AA this year, so yay, he’s an above average hitter in the minors for the first time since 2016. Kyle Lewis, who somehow is 24 years old already, has a 117 WRC+ at AA. Hooray, he’s an above average hitter for the first time since 2017. I mean… neither guy is doing anything spectacular and I’m not sure either is even a top 200 prospect at this point. But they have prospect pedigree and what not, so maybe they become something. With Lewis, he also has the bonus of being a Seattle Mariner prospect, so when Senior Squids decides to host his next fire sale and rebuild the rebuild of his rebuild, you can maybe flip Lewis to him for a cost controlled stud like Matt Chapman or something. Oh man, I’m gonna be blacklisted again.

Overall, my slightly respectful but unapologetic opinion is that this is a fair swap for both teams.

Trade: Senior Squids | TBD

TBD trades away

  • Marte, Noelvi (prospect)
  • White, Evan (prospect)
  • Kelenic, Jarred (prospect)
  • 2020 Draft Pick, Round 1 (TBD)

Senior Squids trades away

  • Chapman, Matt $9.03

Jordan’s thoughts: Any time you can take a top 20, possibly top 10 asset in the entire league anf turn it into a trio of Mariners prospects and a draft pick you can use to draft another, you have to do it, right?  

No. No you don’t.

Let’s look at Matt Chapman. He’s clearly old at 26 and 2 months. Last year he was a 137 wRC+, .369 wOBA hitter. This year, half way through, he’s been a 137 wRC+, .372 wOBA player. He’s walking slightly more. Striking out slightly less. Hitting way more homers. 

That’s a fun guy to own. An even better guy to have in the cost controlled setting of Dynasty Grinders. He’s currently the 40th highest scoring player. There’s 11 guys currently cost controlled with more points scored. Chapman IS THE GUY that you build around. He just is.

So, the return… Jarred Kelenic (last year’s 6th overall pick in our draft, a pick Squids traded to TBD for Ryan O’Hearn 🤯) lit Mariners twitter on fire early on the season by destroying Single-A ball hitting a 179 wRC+ in 50 games. He got promoted and as a 19-year-young hitter, his first 20 games in High-A has been 99 wRC+. Not awful, he’s young for the league, will probably catch up. But he’s already showing that he’s not the Juan Soto/Ronald Acuna type prospect that’s going to debut at 19 in MLB. He needs time and seasoning. The hit tools are there. He’s probably a good fantasy asset down the line.

Evan White is currently 23-years-old and has been doing alright in Double-A ball for the Mariners system. Another top 100 prospects on the FanGraphs lists and projects to be an average 1Bman that our league has come to love. He has the tools and talents to be some what of an asset in the future, but at 23 in double-A, the ceiling is just lower.

Noelvi Marte is 17-years-young and in rookie ball hitting slightly above average for the level with a 113 wRC+ in 23 games played. Scouts like his hit tools, but he’s not lighting up the charts or looking anything much more than a potential slow climbing prospect. Good to have, yet typically easy to find and acquire. 

Now, based on my simple player review, you are probably gathering that this a slam dunk, what the fuck, how did TBD do this kind of deal. And if you assumed that, well you’re right. 

TBD, currently at 11-2 in the league, sitting in first place, adds a cheap fantasy star for nickels on the dollar. Chapman is the best player in this deal now. Likely the best player in this deal four years from now. Possibly (probably) the best player in this deal in 2027 as a 34 year old. Even if the prospects were better, you still do this type of deal to acquire this kind of player. 100 out of 100 times. 

Senior Squids is currently in 9th place, sitting at 6-7 on the path to mediocrity again. It sucks that things have not broken the right way and the motivation to retool/build for next season seems tempting. The problem is that the obvious plan is to build around guys like Matt Chapman, not give them away to save like $20 of budget and assume the risk of a prospect. If you want to trade an asset like Chapman, the return should be major league ready cost controlled players who are on the rise, PLUS this same minor league package. If you’re not getting that…

HOLD THE ASSET.

I’m sorry, the best plan here for either team is to have Matt Chapman. If you’re concerned about some fluke and having so much stock in one player and you REALLY want to diversify the asset, you have to get more than this. If more does not exist, just hold. Don’t cave into the market that you are forcing yourself into.

Have a plan. Develop the plan. Otherwise you’re on a captainless ship, swaying back and forth in the seas heading in no clear direction based on gut calls hoping to find land. Maybe you luck out. Good luck. 

Return of trade reviews.

Yep, they need to happen. The league was born from it. We went soft and catered to the bullshit. If anything it gets discussion going. I’m willing to eat every single word in this post, printed out on paper (and I hate printing internet things) if the return here wins Squids or the Mariners a championship.

Rockies 1B “Trade”: Hustle Loyalty Respect | We Talk Fantasy Sports | Senior Squids

Hustle Loyalty Respect gets:
Rockies 1B Daniel Murphy ($24; priceless)

We Talk Fantasy Sports gives:
Back-up LF/1B Ian Desmond ($28)

Senior Squids has:
1B Eric Hosmer ($32)

Andrew’s thoughts: Wow, what an exciting turn of events. The race to be the Rockies’ first baseman seems to have ended, and Hustle Loyalty Respect’s Daniel Murphy is the lucky winner. Johnny Hustle be all like:

Literally overnight, Murphy’s value skyrocketed. His Steamer projection went way, way up. Check this out:

For Hustle Loyalty Respect, this is a windfall. This is easily the greatest thing that’s happened in his franchise’s illustrious history. He “traded” literally nothing to land the DAMN Rockies first baseman. Truly incredible. We’re talking unprecedented luck here. I just love this “trade” for HLR. When you can add an asset like this in exchange for nothing… just, wow. 

For We Talk Fantasy Sports, well, I don’t understand this “trade” at all. They are actually going to be paying Ian Desmond, back-up 1B and possible platoon LF, the only hitter to ever go to Coors Field and get significantly worse, $4 more than the actual Rockies 1B. I’m referring to Daniel Murphy of HLR, to be clear. Just as Murphy’s projection went way up overnight, Desmond’s projection went way down. He lost nearly 100 projected points and is now projected to amass as many points as someone named… *squints*… Austin Dean. 

But as bad as this “trade” is for WTFS, it’s even worse somehow for Senior Squids. Not only did he not get the Rockies 1B. But instead, he has Eric Hosmer at an astounding cost of $32. Yes, that’s right, Eric Hosmer. Over the last full three seasons of baseball, Hosmer ranks second among all qualified hitters with a 58.2% ground ball rate. Only — OH SHIT! — Ian Desmond has a worse ground ball rate, at 58.6%. Sure, there’s some hope for Hosmer. Why, you ask? Here’s why: Hosmer has 5,070 career plate appearances. And as we all know, power comes later in the career. In fact, every power hitter in baseball history took more than 5,000 plate appearances to learn how to hit home runs. Barry Bonds had just four home runs at the 5,070 career plate appearances mark. He went on, as we all know, to hit 758 more from there. No bull, just facts. 

Over the last two years, Eric Hosmer has hit 43 home runs. That’s 33 fewer than, oh… *draws name from hat*… Nelson Cruz, who by the way has hit 43 or more dingers in a single season twice. But he’s old and expensive (a whopping $8 more than Eric “Slow Roller to Short” Hosmer) though, and as we all know, we subtract points in this league based on age. 

So in summation, I like this trade for HLR. Any time you can get the Rockies 1B instead of Ian Desmond or Eric Hosmer, you just have to do it.

Jordan’s thoughts: I’ve never heard of the two prospects in this “trade,” but Daniel Murphy seems good.

Trade: The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses | Marshall Law

The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses gets:
SP Max Fried ($3)

Marshall Law gets:
1B/LF Matt Adams ($5)

Andrew’s thoughts: I do not know if either of these players would have been kept or cut by their respective teams. Only Senior Squids truly knows that. Either way, here they are now, a bench hitter and a relief pitcher, traded for one another. And quite honestly, I’m riveted. 

I think both teams are winners here, because both teams got to experience the magnificent rush of completing a trade.

Jordan’s thoughts: The moment Matt Adams signed with Washington and was no longer an option for the next COLORADO ROCKIES 1B, I stopped caring about him.

Trade: Senior Squids | The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses

Senior Squids trade away:

  • 1B Evan White (ML)
  • P Franklin Perez (ML)

The Wildfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses trade away:

Jordan’s thoughts: Squids trades here, two top 200 prospects for an expensive 1B that needs a bounce-back. Hosmer went from Kansas City to San Diego and got worse. He was already borderline average or worse. Perhaps Squids noticed the trend that is Hosmer’s roller coaster career:

  • 2011 – 113 wRC+
  • 2012 – 80 wRC+
  • 2013 – 120 wRC+
  • 2014 – 98 wRC+
  • 2015 – 124 wRC+
  • 2016 – 102 wRC+
  • 2017 – 135 wRC+
  • 2018 – 95 wRC+
  • 2019 – ???

Steamer currently says 110. If it is 110, its okay. If he’s back to 120 or 130 its pretty good. The prospects are fine, but easily replaceable. I wouldn’t personally bet on Hosmer bouncing back in 2019 in a way that makes this an easy keep. But, I’m fine with other people doing so. I’m more fine selling him for two prospects that are easy to require like punting a Hosmer.

Andrew’s thoughts: I’m 100% out on Eric Hosmer as a fantasy asset. He’s only 29 so maybe he FIGURES IT OUT, but this dude has a 109 WRC+ with more than 5,000 career plate appearances. He hits the ball on the ground too much, offers zero year over year consistency (unless you buy into the “every other year he’s good” thing), and plays 1B, a position where you really need a guy that can mash. To me, Hosmer’s draw is that he plays every day. That’s it. That’s not the kind of player I’m into.

Having said that, Evan White and Franklin Perez don’t seem like much to me and if Hosmer gets plopped back into auction, $32 is probably the ballpark for what he gets paid. I wouldn’t want to pay him that, but if the pool is garbage, you may have to. A wise man once told me that the auction will be a blood bath.

I guess I don’t see a definite winner here, really. Squids paid a little to lock up a depth piece with I suppose some semblance of upside (Hosmer’s .376 wOBA in 2017 was a thing that happened, after all) in exchange for two lotto tickets. I’m sure WBFD saw all the flaws in Hosmer’s game and the salary and just said, screw it, I’ll take these two prospects.

Having said all that, this deal is available to both teams the first week of February, right? Like, Squids could have saved these two bullets to see if something better comes along and WBFD could’ve held on to see if perhaps Hosmer gets traded to the Rockies, yes? Eh, whatever.

Trade: Senior Squids | The Process

Senior Squids trades away:

The Process trades away:

  • SS Jeter Downs (ML)
  • 2B/SS Jonathan Schoop ($17)
  • 1B/2B/3B/SS/LF Niko Goodrum ($5)

Jordan’s thoughts: Ketel Marte is projected to be a ~800 point 2B/SS with a 1.27 PPPA. That’s pretty great. He’s only $9, he’s a steal. Jon Schoop plays the same positions, has a 1.24 PPPA. So they’re the same. He costs $8 more. So..ummm…yeah.  Niko Goodrum was trashed on the podcast enough, but I’ll just say that finding a 1 PPPA player is basically replacement level. Sure he plays a lot and can fit into a few positions, there’s some value there. Not much.

Jeter Downs is a 45+ rated prospect that was ranked 7th in the Reds organization. Okay.

Rich Hill for under $20 is a nice value pitcher. He’s projected for something like 800-900 points. Now I realize he’s not without risk. But, all pitchers have built in risk. Even if you get just 10-15 Rich Hill starts, he’s easily worth $19.

This trade confuses me. In a vacuum I love this trade for The Process. In the context of these teams with their current situation…well The Process traded away spare parts that had little or no value for two valuable pieces.

For Senior Squids, he’s won some trades recently, this one baffles me.

Andrew’s thoughts: If I were just ranking the individual players in this trade, including salaries and all, for me it’d go: Marte, Hill, Schoop, Goodrum, Downs. If not for his amazing 2017 that now looks flukey, I’d bump Schoop down below Goodrum.

I guess what I’m saying is, I like this for The Process. I really like Ketel Marte for some reason I can’t put my finger on. Take the projections with a grain of salt if you must, but Steamer has Marte scoring 165.4 more points than Goodrum next year. And I’m kinda buying that, actually. I get that Goodrum is a few bucks cheaper and has three extra positions, but I’d prefer points over positions. Marte was at one time a pretty legitimate prospect. There’s some pedigree here. Goodrum just sort of came from nowhere. Other than a pretty good hard hit rate, I see nothing in Goodrum’s profile that suggests to me he’s anything more than a guy who may play a lot and accumulate stats inefficiently. A utility guy, basically. Oh, and Marte’s hard hit rate was only 0.6% lower than Goodrum’s, so it’s not like there’s even a gap in that one specific data point.

Dick Mountain, meanwhile, is old and fragile and risky, but he’s good as long as he pitches. His skills aren’t in question and if he gives you another 130 inning season for $19, you should be very happy. I’d rather gamble on his health than gamble on Schoop actually being any good, which I think is very much up for debate considering every year of his career sans 2017.

Trade: Senior Squids | The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses

Senior Squids trades away:

The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses trades away:

Jordan’s thoughts: Squids punches the ticket on three prospects who are or were recently on top 100 lists. The shine on Alcantara, Lewis and Jones is not as bright as it once was, but likely it is not all gone either.

In return, he gets two fairly priced starters. Both players are currently MLB free agents so there is definitely more than a healthy dose of uncertainty. In a vacuum I really enjoy this trade for Squids. You trade three prospects who might be useful, might not be, and turn them into players you should be able to bank on holding down 3B and C for you.

If you’re punting your season before Christmas like WBFD here, I guess tossing away two guys for three prospects is fine. I don’t love it, but its fine.

Andrew’s thoughts: I like this one for the Squids.

Neither Mike Moustakas or Wilson Ramos are super exciting players but they’re the kind of players contending teams need and frankly, as cheap as they are, I’m not sure why WBFD didn’t just hang onto them. I can’t imagine buying better players for better salary at auction, and this trifecta of prospects strike me as guys that you hope develop into depth pieces rather than building blocks.

I mean, I get that WBFD is rebuilding. But this isn’t a move that slashes a ton of salary. Neither Moustakas or Ramos were in position to be cuts. They weren’t “take whatever I can get” salary dumps. Like, if you re-invest the $29 into a single player at auction, what is that likely to buy you? Adam Jones? Curtis Granderson went for $27 last year. Is a $29 Steven Matz plus these three prospects better than Moustakas and Ramos? Maybe! I don’t really know. These prospects just don’t excite me enough to want to dump proven major league talent for them and then have to gamble on getting decent replacement talent at auction.

Trade: Senior Squids | We Talk Fantasy Sports

Senior Squids gets:
1B/2B/3B Travis Shaw ($18)

We Talk Fantasy Sports gets:
RF/LF Hunter Renfroe ($5)

Andrew’s thoughts: I’m sorry Keith, but I don’t have a whole lot nice to say about this one. Hunter Renfroe has a ton of raw power and is $13 cheaper, but he’s got a sub-.300 OBP in almost 1,000 career plate appearances. He seems like a guy that only has a full time gig because the Padres don’t have any better option. In this league, I like him as more of a rotating UT2 guy or a back-up outfielder and wouldn’t feel great rolling him out as a daily starter.

I thought WTFS’ offense was in trouble after trading for Madison Bumgarner and I think this just makes it worse. According to Steamer, this is something like a 150 point downgrade for WTFS. 

I like this trade for the Squids.

Jordan’s thoughts: I think there is some potential that Renfroe figures things out and ends up being pretty great. I see some shine potential. For that I don’t mind the trade for WTFS. I tend to agree with Bailey on all accounts. Clearly this is a great trade for Squids. The problem with low OBP guys in our league though is that they’re really boon or bust and can really sink weeks for you.

I’ll give this deal an “I love it” to the Squids…and for We Talk Fantasy Sports “I get it, but meh” ratings.