Trade: Senior Squids | Long Ball to LF

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Musgrove, Joe
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids)
Wright, Kyle
O’Neill, Tyler

Senior Squids trades away
Paxton, James

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

The nice thing I’ll say about this trade is that I do like it more than the last one.  Paxton is a more volatile asset than Gary Sanchez is, thus I think it’s a better piece to trade if you’re rebuilding/tanking.  Elton took my advice from the last review in trading Paxton. I still think it would be preferable to have made this trade rather than and instead of the last one.

That being said, I still think this isn’t a great trade, but it’s not awful.  It’s basically a downgrade from a near ace level pitcher in Paxton to whatever Musgrove is with a wild card shot on Wright or Oneil being something. If Oneill becomes a middle of the order bopper year in and year out and Musgrove is a top 30ish pitcher, then it probably works out ok for him. That still seems like a lot of risk of both those things happening rather than Paxton just staying good. Paxton could get hurt, but Musgrove is no stranger to injuries either.  Seems risky with not a ton of upside unless you think Paxton isn’t built to hold up for a few years or that Musgrove will become close to his tier of a player. Which I suppose is possible!

I still have trouble seeing how this puts Elton in a better position to beat the teams he made stronger in 2019 and beyond. Senior Squids finally has a top 10 farm, and their best course now is to let his prospects marinate and hopefully next year flip them for an elite asset like Gary Sanchez or James Paxton. This trade reminds me a lot of the Pirates trading Gerit Cole, when they sought elite future assets and ended up with… Joe Musgrove.

For Long Ball, this seems like a no brainer move. Sure Paxton has injury risk, but so does Musgrove. Every trade has inherent risks, but this seems like a pretty safe bet. With a rotation of Nola, Paxton, and Greinke, the Long Balls look to be serious contenders now and in the future.

Andrew’s thoughts: 

James Paxton is a weird guy to value. He’s obviously very, very good, but he’s also constantly hurt. He’s never thrown more than 136 innings and I feel like if you’re buying him, you’re probably worried he won’t be available when it matters most (H2H playoff time). At the same time… he costs only $10, $12 minimum to keep, and that is effectively nothing. Even if he gets greeded up to $20, that’s peanuts for a player of his caliber. He could miss all of 2019 for whatever reason and still be cheap enough to keep into 2020. I guess what I’m saying is, he’s riskier than your average pitcher, but his price and ability outweigh a good majority of that risk. I agree with Hustle’s general sentiment that, for a rebuilding team, Paxton is the most obvious chip to move (and that he should’ve been traded first and instead of franchise piece Gary Sanchez).

On the other side, Joe Musgrove also appears to be an injury risk. He’s only pitched in four MLB games this year after battling injuries all winter and spring. I like Musgrove, but I’m a little shocked he’s the main piece in a deal for a Paxton-like stud. I’m having flashbacks to Lewis Brinson — in other words, a guy who pops up on the trade block sporadically for months, then is suddenly headlining a deal for a star. In this case, three of Musgrove’s four starts have been good, so I guess that’s enough to make him valuable.

In essence, Long Ball paid three prospects — O’Neill, Wright, and a pick — to upgrade Musgrove to Paxton. And I love it. He had to do it. He didn’t, in my opinion, touch any of his premium prospects to get this deal done (if I’m Squids and trading Paxton to Long Ball, I’m getting Juan Soto or Bo Bichette back or I’m shopping really hard elsewhere). Musgrove seems good, but Paxton is elite. To me, Tyler O’Neill is a depth piece in our league. The power will play, but his cost control clock has already started ticking and he’s on a team that doesn’t have room for him. Is he just a fourth outfielder? Kyle Wright ranked 24th on FanGraphs’ new prospect list, but I don’t know much about him. He’s a pitcher, and if I’m tanking this year and probably next as Squids appears to be doing, I’m just not pumped to do it all around pitchers.

Ultimately I can’t escape the feeling here that Squids decided Paxton had to go ASAP and just took whatever offer looked best. Yeah, Paxton’s risky, but given his performance and cost, literally every team should have shown interest. Paxton is more valuable to even a rebuilding team than almost any prospect or combo of 2-3 prospects. I’d love to know if any “rebuilding” teams inquired. I know Squids has taken some pleasure in trying to play the “top teams” against each other as he tears down, but the market for Paxton should’ve been vast and the return just seems underwhelming. Oh well. Paxton’s arm could melt off at any moment (he had forearm cramping during his last start!) and this deal could then look fantastic simply by virtue of getting something. There aren’t a lot of studs in the league for under $20, but Paxton’s one of them and injury history be damned, I feel like he should’ve fetched a Bichette, Soto, or some prospect of that ilk a tier or two below the Vlads and Acunas of the world. Kyle Wright feels very blah to me. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out and if injuries play a role in the narrative.

 

 

Squids has himself a day

 

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Gordon, Dee

Senior Squids trades away
2019 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids)

Bailey’s Take

This was a trade Squids just had to make. I really wouldn’t feel good about contending with Joe Panik as my only 2B. Dee Gordon is a little sketchy in our format because he offers no power, but neither does Panik. At least Dee gets on base pretty good and racks up steals, which aren’t really valuable but are better than nothing. Gordon always finishes among the top 2B scorers even if it isn’t always in game changing fashion. I wouldn’t be surprised if Panik gets dumped back to auction now.
Speaking of auction. Is Adam Jones kept at $39? I’m not sure. Gordon will be able to play CF too and while he won’t hit the homers Jones will, they’re roughly the same guy in our scoring when all is said and done.
Either way, this helps Squids at minimal cost. It gives him a relatively inexpensive, useful player that offers some options and flexibility. For LB, I assume this was a salary dump. So good for him too for turning a presumed cut into some future value. Maybe next year he can join the dark side and sell the pick for auction budget.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
Overall this trade was pretty fine for both teams. I like it slightly more for Long Ball here. Gordon, like Brinson, has to be one of the most traded players in Dynasty Grinders history ( Jesus Sucre and Brian Shaw not counted). I think Gordon was likely headed back to the auction, so getting a 2nd round pick is a good haul for a cut. For Squids, supplanting Paniks production seems like a good idea at this point, and Gordon is a decent option.  I think if he would have held out until auction he could have got comparable production at 2b, but maybe not.  It’s hard to fault him for wanting to be prepared at each position before the auction.
Night King’s Undead Army to Senior Squids
($8) Gregorius , Didi for  $15

Bailey’s Take

Dansby Swanson has been a pretty big disappointment. Didi seems like a good upgrade over him. For basically $15 and a pick, Squids has pretty nicely upgraded his middle infield today.
For Jordan, eh, I don’t know. Getting Corey Seager maybe have rendered Didi useless, but I would’ve wanted actual talent back. Prospects, a cheap major leaguer, whatever.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
So after an offseason of quite, Squids picked up Dee and Did in one afternoon. That’s 3 Ds. D-Von, get tables.
Anyway I like this trade for Squids more than the first. This reminds me of the Ferns deal with Bailey earlier offseason where he bought Mannea for 20.  Buying an $8 Didi for $15 is basically like paying $23 at auction for Didi, which I don’t think would be crazy if you didn’t have a SS. The upside is that squids only has to pay $10 for him next year, especially with  greed sponge Gary Sanchez on his roster. I don’t hate the trade for Jordan, I think it was a natural consequence of the Corey Seager deal which I did not like for Jordan. In fact, if Dejong does what he did last year, there’s no way Jordan is going to miss Didi at all.  $15 buys you a better need at auction, so I get it.

Grading the Dynasty Grinder Minor League Systems

First, this is my first and probably my last attempt at writing for Dynasty Grinders. Since I retired I’ve had more time on my hands and over the last month I’ve dived into each and every Grinders minor league systems. There were a few reasons for the deep dive in the minor league systems:

  • I wanted to learn more about the minor league systems
  • Prepare myself for the upcoming draft
  • Educate myself on the other team’s minor league rosters for possible trades

Finally, as I was going through each team, I’m convinced there are the “haves and the have-nots” and I want to even the playing field. I’m hoping those at the bottom will be motived to do better. I also realize that some owners have different ideas how to manage their teams and I understand that too. My life experience tells me “Knowledge is Power”. The ultimate goal is to make the Dynasty Grinder league better and more balanced.

I’m no minor league expert and I have used a few web sites to grade each minor league player that is on our rosters. Additionally, some teams have players on their roster that weren’t ranked because I couldn’t justify giving them a star. Remember they are minor league players and could be late bloomers. There is a high probability that I’m full of crap, which is probably the case. Column “2018 MLB Ready” below means players could be breaking into the MLB this year. The teams are ranked from the best to worst.

The Key

3 Stars = Elite MLB Player
2 Stars = Solid MLB Player
1 Star = Average MLB Player

#1 HLR

Loaded, more than loaded………………………. Lead by Vladimir Guerrero, if you’re looking to trade for prospects HLR is the place to go. Beware HLR is a hustler and values his prospects and in a few years his team is going to be killing it. Hustle is going to win many championships if you believe in building from the bottom up. The only downside is HLR only has one prospect who might make the majors this year, he’s a good one too, Willie Calhoun. Minor League score 50.

2018 MLB Ready

  • TEX OF Calhoun, Willie

3 Star Players

  • ALT SP Allard, Kolby
  • NYM UT Alonso, Peter
  • TOR 3B Guerrero Jr., Vladimir
  • LAD LF Heredia, Starling
  • MIN SS Javier, Wander
  • DET SP Manning, Matt
  • PHL RF Ortiz, Jhailyn
  • MIL LF Harrison, Monte
  • TB LF Sanchez, Jesus
  • HOU RF Tucker, Kyle

#2 TBD

Almost the top minor league team, it was very close that’s for sure since the Joey Wentz trade. TBD was going to drop Brian McCann anyway, good for TBD. The rich get richer in my opinion………………………. TBD’s minor league team is stacked with Eloy Jimenez, who is a year away, and Walker Buehler, who could be the NL Rookie of the Year in 2018. TBD probably has the best 2018 MLB ready players, led by Buehler and Lewis Brinson. TBD’s experience evaluating minor league talent is unquestionable. Minor league score 49.

2018 MLB Ready

  • BAL RF Hays, Austin
  • MIL CF Brinson, Lewis
  • HOU SP/RP Paulino, David
  • MIL SP Woodruff, Brandon
  • STL SP Helsley, Ryan
  • LAD SP Buehler, Walker

3 Star Players

  • CHC SP Albertos, Jose
  • MIL CF Brinson, Lewis
  • CHW LF Jimenez, Eloy
  • LAD SP May, Dustin
  • DET SP Perez, Franklin
  • LAD SP Buehler, Walker
  • BAL RF Hays, Austin
  • Alt SP Wentz, Joey

#3 IL4W

IL4W was only one three-star pitcher away from being the top minor league squad. IL4W team is led by strong pitching with Michael Kopech, Braxton Garrett and Cal Quantrill. IL4W has the best group of minor league pitching in the league. IL4W also has young Kevin Maitan who found a new home in Anaheim. IL4W has help on the way this year with Alex Verdugo and Victor Robles, who are projected to be fantasy stars. HLR, IL4W and TBD’s minor league systems are killing it and the rest of us wish we had ¼ of the 3-star prospects they have. I tip my hat to all three teams. Minor league score 47.

2018 MLB Ready

  • PHI UT Alfaro, Jorge
  • KC SP Skoglund, Eric
  • LAD CF Verdugo, Alex
  • WAS RF Robles, Victor

3 Star Players

  • OAK LF Armenteros, Lazaro
  • MIA SP Garrett, Braxton
  • CHW SP Kopech, Michael
  • OAK SP Luzardo, Jesus
  • ATL SS Maitan, Kevin
  • SD SP Quantrill, Cal
  • MIL RF Grisham, Trent
  • WAS RF Robles, Victor
  • LAD SP Sheffield, Jordan

#4 Long Ball

Long Ball =’s Ronald Acuna, the favorite to become 2018 NL Rookie of the Year. Acuna ripped through three levels of the minors and AFL, there’s no doubt Acuna is ready to be a MLB All Star. Sean Reid-Foley has a 97-mph fast ball with a competitive edge. Long Ball also has some nice power coming up with Bobby Dalbec and pure hitter Bo Bichette just a couple of years away. Minor league score 37.

2018 MLB Ready

  • MIL SP Ortiz, Luis
  • CHC C Caratini, Victor
  • STL OF O’Neill, Tyler
  • ATL OF Acuna, Ronald

3 Star Players

  • ALT CF Acuna, Ronald
  • WAS SS Kieboom, Carter
  • TOR SP Reid-Foley, Sean
  • WAS RF Soto, Juan
  • SD SS Ruiz, Esteury

#5 Night King’s Undead Army

The Night Kings have the best pitching prospect in the game, Alex Reyes, but coming off TJS surgery. They also have eight two-star prospects. MLB ready players include Hunter Dozier, who will probably start the season with the Royals but playing time will be a question. Kyle Zimmer also has a chance to break camp with the Royals. Why did The Foundation change their name? Just to confuse me?????? Minor league score 36

2018 MLB Ready

  • KC 2B Dozier, Hunter
  • STL SP Reyes, Alex
  • KC SP Zimmer, Kyle
  • CHW RP Fulmer, Carson

3 Star Players

  • ATL SP Anderson, Ian
  • BOS SP Groome, Jason
  • BAL 3B Reyes, Jomar
  • STL SP Reyes, Alex

#6 Senior Squids

Not an earth shattering minor league roster. After the 2016 season the Squids reconstructed the minor league roster and concentrated on pitching. Hoping the likes of Honeywell, Alcantara, Duplantier and Whitley will be the foundation of his team for years to come. News broke recently that Mariner prospect Eric Filia was suspended 50 games for a second positive drug test. Filia hit .326 at Modesto in 2017 and won the Arizona Fall League battle title with a .408 average. Hopefully he gets his drug addiction taken care, and get back on the field and bring a world championship to Seattle. It’s kind of weird evaluating my own team, feel free to throw me under the bus. Minor league score 35

2018 MLB Ready

  • CIN LF, Winker, Jesse
  • TB SP Honeywell, Brent
  • SD RF Renfroe, Hunter
  • MIA SP Alcantara, Sandy
  • TB SP De Leon, Jose
  • CHW RP Vieira, Thyago

3 Star Players

  • TB 3B Lowe, Josh
  • SEA RF Lewis, Kyle
  • MIA SP Alcantara, Sandy
  • ARI SP Duplantier, Jon
  • HOU SP Whitley, Forrest

#7 Beach Bum

The Beach Bums have a balanced minor league team with lots of up and coming MLB talent, led by Gleyber Torres. Torres is slated to bat ninth and play 2B for the Yankees, who have the best line up in the majors. The Beach Bums have quite a few minor players that will hit the majors this year, especially with Oakland A’s. I’m a big fan of A J Puk who has huge K upside. The Beach Bums also have Austin Meadows who is #17 on MLB’s prospects and could make the Pirates roster if Andrew McCutchen is traded (ed. note: he was!). Minor league score 33

2018 MLB Ready

  • OAK SP Puk, AJ
  • OAK SP Holmes, Grant
  • NYY SS Torres, Gleyber
  • PIT CF Meadows, Austin
  • MIN SP Gonsalves, Stephen

3 Star Players

  • PHI 2B Kingery, Scott
  • PIT CF Meadows, Austin
  • OAK SP Puk, AJ
  • PHI SP Sanchez, Sixto
  • NYY SS Torres, Gleyber

#8 Team Hydra

Hydra has a very strong group of 2-star minor leagues, which include Corey Ray if he can find his stroke after a sub par 2017 season. Hydra’s strength is his MLB ready prospects. Francisco Mejia and Jorge Mateo both will make strong pitches for regular playing time this year. Additionally, Daniel Volgelbach will be fighting to win the 1B job with the Mariners, who adds lots of pop if he can do it in the majors. Minor league score 29

2018 MLB Ready

  • SEA 1 Vogelbach, Dan
  • CLE C Mejia, Francisco
  • OAK OF Fowler, Dustin
  • OAK SS Mateo, Jorge

3 Star Players

  • LAD SP Alvarez, Yadier
  • OAK SP Kaprielian, James
  • PIT SP Keller, Mitch
  • TEX CF Taveras, Leody

#9 The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses

First, “The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses” has to be the strangest / craziest fantasy team name I’ve ever heard. What’s the story behind the name, WB? Does anyone know? WB has a strong core of three-star prospects that include Jack Flaherty, who could find himself in the Cardinals rotation and be a solid #3. Riley Pint is a complete pitcher with a plus fastball who is a top of the rotation pitcher. Fernando Tatis Jr is going to be an All-Star with an already loaded Padres prospect squad. The Padres are going to be a force to be reckoned with in a couple of years. Minor league score 26

2018 MLB Ready

  • COL 1B McMahon, Ryan
  • MIL SS Dubon, Mauricio
  • TEX 1B Guzman, Ronald

3 Star Players

  • SD SP Espinoza, Anderson
  • STL SP Flaherty, Jack
  • COL 1B McMahon, Ryan
  • COL SP Pint, Riley
  • SD SS Tatis Jr, Fernando

#10 Troompa Loompas

Jimmy Kimmel’s team has three high end prospects that includes Dylan Cease a power pitcher who’s a 97 MPH fastball, he’s the 58th ranked prospect on MLB.com. TL should have three players get some MLB playing time this year led by Franklin Barreto who is line drive hitter and could hit .280. My favorite player on his roster is Matt Thaiss who can hit HR’s and knows how to work the count. Minor league score 25

2018 MLB Ready

  • OAK SS Barreto, Franklin
  • ARI SP Banda, Anthony
  • NYY SP Adams, Chance

3 Star Players

  • CHW SP Cease, Dylan
  • NYM SS Gimenez, Andres
  • NYM SP Scapucki, Thomas

#11 Preseason Double-Stuffs

The Oreos have two of the best up and coming infield prospects in our league, Brendon Rogers and Nick Senzel. Late word out of Cincinnati is they want Senzel to learn how to play the OF, which should speed up his callup and he might make the Cincinnati team to start the season. Senzel is Cincinnati’s #1 prospect and 9th overall. Brendon Rogers is the 7th overall prospect and is a middle of the order player at Coors Field, the Oreos will be double stuffing their two prize prospects this year. They also have Luiz Gohara, who Atlanta got from my Mariners. Gohara has #2 stuff. On kind of a strange note, the Double Stuffs have two of the top catching prospects in the league, Chance Sisco and Carson Kelly. However, Kelly is stuck behind Yadier Molina and he’s not going anywhere. I really like the Double Stuffs minor league roster. Minor league score 23.1

2018 MLB Ready

  • CIN 3B Senzel, Nick
  • COL SS Rodgers, Brendan
  • STL C Kelly, Carson
  • ATL SP Gohara, Luiz
  • BAL C Sisco, Chance

3 Star Players

  • COL SS Rodgers, Brendan
  • CIN 3B Senzel, Nick
  • CIN UT Trammell, Taylor
  • ATL SP Gohara, Luiz

#12 Capital City Ironmen

The Capital City Ironmen have nine two-star major league prospects and no three-star prospects. That could be all fake news and CC could have 9 three-star prospects and championships the next five years. This could cause the Hustler to curl up in the fetal position in a bathroom at Dodger Stadium. His squad is led by JP Crawford who will finally get his chance with Phillies batting 7th. They also have Oscar De La Cruz who is on the fast track and will be a middle of the rotation pitcher with fantasy upside. I also like Yordan Alvarez who has 25 HR upside. Minor league score 23

2018 MLB Ready

  • PHI 3B Crawford, JP
  • CLE SP Bieber, Shane
  • LAA SP Barria, Jaime
  • TOR LF Gurriel, Lourdes
  • PIT SS Newman, Kevin

3 Star Players

  • N/A

#13 Who’s Your Haddy?

Who’s Your Haddy’s top two prospects are a few years away. Adonis Medina is slated as a #2 with lots of K upside in his future, but could end up in the bullpen. Their top prospect, Estevan Florial is capable of .300+ BA, 20+ HR, and 25+ SB. Major League ready David Dahl is on Haddy’s minor league roster and will be Colorado’s OF of the future. Amir Garrett is slated to start in the bullpen but has #3 starter stuff and will start on the major league roster in 2018. Minor league score 18.1

2018 MLB Ready

  • CIN SP Garrett, Amir
  • COL LF Dahl, David

3 Star Players

  • NYY CF Florial, Estevan
  • PHI RP Medina, Adonis

3 Star Players 2018 MLB Ready
NYY CF Florial, Estevan CIN SP Garrett, Amir
PHI RP Medina, Adonis COL LF Dahl, David

#14 Team Canada

Team Canada’s minor league has limited 3-star talent except for Isan Diaz who has huge power upside but is a few years away. However, they do have a few players that should make their MLB debut this year. Tyler Mahle has an excellent chance to become a solid fantasy contributor this year. Jordan Patterson can contribute a .270 avg and 20 HR’s. Finally, Erick Feddie should also make his debut, however he did have Tommy John surgery in 2014. He has #3 stuff. Minor league score 18

2018 MLB Ready

  • CIN SP Mahle, Tyler
  • COL RF Patterson, Jordan
  • WAS SP Fedde, Erick

3 Star Players

  • MIL SS Diaz, Isan

#15 Evil Otters

First, like The Foundation/Night King’s Undead Army, the Otters also changed their name and ownership. We miss you Dusty and I hope your health is improving. I was a little surprise the Otters traded one of their top prospects for a part time catcher for the coming season. There not much squid in the cooler but the Otters do have a couple of sleepers I really like. Jorge Ona and Will Benson are capable of 30 HR’s a season. The only player I see making it onto an MLB roster this year is Domingo Acevedo, who is slated to start in the bullpen. FYI, I’m not a fan of the Otters short name “666” What’s up with that???? Minor league score 16

2018 MLB Ready

  • NYY RP Acevedo, Domingo

3 Star Players

  • TEX SP Speas, Alex
  • NYY RP Acevedo, Domingo

#16 We Talk Fantasy Sports

Momma’s cupboard is empty with an open jar of stale Oreo cookies. Slack chatting with We Talk mentioned that his priority was drafting major league ready players, which explains why he has no fresh cookies. We Talk has two really nice prospects, Adbert Alzolay and Corbin Burnes, who are high level prospects that could see action in 2019. In 2018 We Talk Fantasy Sports should have Dillion Peters fight for a rotation spot with MIA, which shouldn’t be that hard considering what has happened down south, and he still has Byron Buxton right? Minor league score 10

2018 MLB Ready

  • MIA SP Peters, Dillon

3 Star Players

  • CHC SP Alzolay, Adbert
  • MIL SP Burnes, Corbin

Conclusion: I had a lot of fun and learned a lot putting all of this together. Absolutely no hard feelings towards any of the teams, it’s just one opinion. I believe to be successful is a dynasty baseball league it’s a must to have a strong minor league squad. I asked my baseball friends on the right and the left and they said the article is “fake news” because they are only minor league prospects and you never know, plus most of them are young adults. If I missed on any prospects or you disagree with the article please post on slack. Please, I have no intention to be mean and only trying to make the league better.

– Senior Squids

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Senior Squids

Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: 2B/3B/SS Jonathan Villar ($12)
Senior Squids sends: SP Sandy Alcantara (minors)

Andrew’s Thoughts: I suppose last year’s stats don’t matter much, but in 2016 Jonathan Villar was the 4th highest scoring shortstop, 7th at 2B, and 5th at 3B. He’s been absolutely dreadful this season to the tune of a .271 wOBA. Of qualified hitters, that ranks 157th out of 166. Byron Buxton ranks 165th on that list. Villar being ranked near Buxton just by itself is devastating to his value. At least Villar only costs $12 and not like, I don’t know, $38 or something. Man, can you imagine paying Byron Buxton $38 to sit on your bench every day? I sure can’t.

I think if you were looking at this season alone, completely ignorant of last year, sure, dump Villar for an okay prospect. But last year exists, and so I can’t see dumping him for a prospect of Sandy Alcantara‘s caliber. I don’t even dislike Alcantara necessarily, but how much of his scouting report can be written about how many other pitching prospects?

Villar just turned 26. He’s already had a season where he finished in the top seven in scoring at three infield positions. How is his value equal to a guy with 76 uninspiring Double-A innings to his name? How does that one line on a 26-year-old’s resume, inflated as it may have been by a .373 BABIP, not trump whatever list you see where Alcantara appears?

I think Hustle will pick someone up this morning that either already is on some other list somewhere or will be before long, essentially replacing Alcantara for free, while adding Villar as a depth piece with proven upside. Villar’s isn’t prospect upside. It’s legitimate, “hey guys, I’m super young and already finished a full season as the 22nd highest scoring hitter” upside. And at $14 next year, Villar’s keepable if he closes out the year strong. He could be keepable if he merely shows life. Sure, he’s likely to be 2B-only next year and that dings his value some, but just rest of season, I’d much rather gamble on what Villar’s already done in the majors than gamble on what Alcantara might some day do.

Trade: Senior Squids | Capital City Income

 

Hill, Rich ($15)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Capital City Income)

Senior Squids trades away
Gattis, Evan ($9)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Senior Squids

 

Hustle’s $.02

From a value standpoint. I think the trade is pretty even. Rich Hill clearly is the more risk reward player here and probably warrants the pick upgrade. This pick upgrade is for 2020 so it could be an upgrade of one pick or as many as 32. I’m going to guess in between.

For Bailey: I understand the appeal. He has some pitcher depth (after acquiring Happ/Vargas) and having a capable 2nd catcher is very useful in this league. Currently he has Martin as his guy, and that’s likely not to change on most nights. Catchers get hurt, and Gattis is a huge upgrade to anything he could get on the wire. It’s also useful for those days Martin just won’t play.  It was about 2.5 months ago when Bailey traded away a 3rd rounder (essentially), Chris Carter, and Grichuk for  Hill.  Grichuk has been worthless and won’t be kept and Chris Carter has been a sparingly useful 1b/UTIl (5 pph) on the last place team.  So he’s played musical chairs with some assets and ended up with a very nice backup catcher. If Rich Hill does get it going, this may look foolish with the current pitching landscape. I’d say on the surface this looks like Bailey selling high after one of Hill’s best starts, but it’s not like the sell-high netted too much.

Bailey’s Rating: /5 Sticks

 

For Elton: We’ll find out pretty soon how this deal goes, because Rich Hill is the only real factor here. I think he’s going to either be a very good-great pitcher averaging close to or over 30 ppg or he’s going to continue to implode and the Dodgers will give him less starts and perhaps put him in the pen.  He’s basically either a $30-40 pitcher or a $0 one. The Dodgers paid him, so he’ll get his chance, but there are some red flags in healthy, age, some diminished stuff, and the Dodgers have a plethora of options.

In a year where pitching is so difficult is the answer to just get more bullets or just strengthening your hitting and hope for the best on pitching? Squids is clearly doing the former.

The catcher isn’t so much a need for Squids because he has Zunino and Gary Sanchez. For me, this is a low risk “I’m going for it” deal.  At 5-7 Squids chances at playoffs are losing steam each week so he needs to do something now and pitching is his biggest need. If he thinks he can do it, then I really like this deal for him.  If he doesn’t make playoffs and Rich Hill is a pumpkin, then he loses a trade chip in Gattis, but hardly a significant one.

Squids Ratings Rating   / 5 Sticks

 

 

 

Trade: Senior Squids | Hustle Loyalty Respect

HLR sends: SP Joe Ross ($16), SP Jose De Leon ($1), 2018 4th Round Pick
Senior Squids sends: 1B/RF Wil Myers $17)

Andrew’s thoughts: Joe Ross gets annihilited by left handed hitters (.408 wOBA!) and his value was very questionable a week ago before having that one awesome start against the Manny-less, Jones-less Orioles. His game log is weird. He’s either had great starts or disastrous starts this year. There’s been no in between. Jose De Leon is hurt or something, isn’t he?

Don’t get me wrong. I like Ross and De Leon well enough. I loved Ross in particular before the season started. But a year ago Wil Myers was the key piece to buying Bryce Harper. He’s young, cheap, and good. I mean, I guess downgrading at first from Myers to a platoon of Trey Mancini and Danny Valencia is fine in the short-term. It’s not a death blow. Mancini’s BABIP is elevated and 25% of his fly balls are going for homers. He just… doesn’t feel real to me yet. And if he’s not real, what happens when you’re relying on Valencia, who was dumped on waivers fairly recently, to hold down your 1B fort?

I don’t know. I guess it could work out either way. Myers doesn’t strike me as an untouchable, transcendent type guy, and the way hitters are exploding right now, it seems like you could find production similar to his much easier than you could find two wild card pitchers.

I guess that’s sort of my underlying feeling here too. In the last week, Squids has gone bonkers for pitching despite an offense that entered this week ranked 11th in the league. I’m not sure that in 2017 you can trust pitchers to carry the day anymore. Offense is the safety net now, and this move would in theory weaken an offense already struggling to stay afloat by going from Myers to two guys you’d probably rather see as back-ups. But who knows, I think Squids has some more moves in the pipeline, so we’ll see.

Trade: Long Ball to LF | Senior Squids

Long Ball to LF sends: SP Daniel Norris ($14)
Senior Squids sends: 2018 1st Round Pick

 

Andrew’s thoughts: Without any context, I’d rather have Daniel Norris than a generic first round pick. I inquired about Norris a few times, actually. The pick is just a prospect, which Norris was as recently as a couple years ago. He was Baseball America’s 18th-ranked prospect in 2014. By buying him now, you get the same type of prospect pedigree as you’d get in the draft, but with 200 innings of work under his belt. He will also score you points today; that pick will score you points way later.

But there’s context too.

Long Ball has a bunch of pitchers, several similar to Norris, so he was expendable. Meanwhile, if the season ended today, Squids would be in the bottom-4 bracket and likely have the strongest team there, meaning the best chance of winning that bracket and the top overall pick. Worst case, as of today, it’s the 4th overall pick. So you’re in effect trading a guy like Luis Robert, Hunter Greene, Royce Lewis, Brendan McKay, etc for Norris. Still, not too bad, particularly if you need the points now. But…

I feel like more could have been milked for a pick that currently projects high, or maybe a guy or two could’ve been paired with it to get an even better pitcher. Picks are coveted in this league and an as-of-today top-4 pick didn’t really even seem to be publicly shopped. The last time I looked a couple weeks back, a league average start was around 21 points. Norris is the 73rd overall SP in total points and is averaging 19.83 points a start, so slightly below average. So I also wonder if a second round pick doesn’t buy you a comparable thrower.

Hustle’s thoughts: I disagree with Andrew hereI personally rather have the pick, but not by much.  I’ve never been a Daniel Norris fan. He’s a pretty average pitcher overall and maybe slightly below in a fantasy context here.  He’s averaging 19 points a game here, which is a low end starter unless you expect him to pick it up (which is possible).

I get that a first round pick is years away from contributing, but currently Squids has a ticket to the 2018 Iosim Bowl so this was potentially moving the first overall pick.  Even in a weak draft, I’ll take the lotto ticket and either trade the pick closer to the draft for something better or improve the farm.

At 4-6 Squids definitely has a shot to get back in this and make playoffs, but I don’t think it’s going to be on the back of Daniel Norris. If it is, I’ll have to re-evaluate this. Daniel Norris as an above average pitcher at less than $20 to keep is a good asset.

 

 

Trade: TBD | Senior Squids

TBD sends: SP Brent Honeywell (minors)
Senior Squids sends: 3B Rafael Devers (minors)

Hustle’s thoughts: There was a time in the offseason when I predicted Joe would make a trade with Elton for a catcher.  Both of them privately told me they would never make a trade with each other.  Then a few months later TBD acquired a catcher from Squids.  Now they trade again.  Was the point of these first few sentences to gloat? Mostly.  

Moving on to the trade. If we were to redo our initial minor league auction with players who have yet to debut (like we did in early 2016), I would think both these guys would be late first round picks.  It’s rare to see a top prospect get traded for another.  Calling someone a winner and a loser here would be more foolish than most trades.  I think Devers is safer here. He is only 20 and mashing in AA to a 220 ISO and near 400 WOBA.  Squids made it known he’s looking to improve on pitching, and while he’s acquired one of the best near MLB ready arms, it’s far from a given Honeywell will produce out of the gate.  Most pitchers take a while to figure it out or get hurt. Honeywell’s upside is probably a #2, maybe an Ace, so I definitely see the appeal here, but both these guys could be a while from mattering if ever.  Squids also has Kyle Seager reasonably prices for a few years, so Honeywell’s upside gives him a chance to have a more balanced team.

Andrew’s thoughts: Oh, the rare prospect for prospect trade. And I think it’s a fair swap for both teams.

I personally would rather have Devers, just because he seems less risky somehow and all the scouts and lists like him more. But Honeywell’s good too, he’s likely going to debut sooner, and he’s a pitcher, so if you’re hunting for guys who throw baseballs, he’s a solid target as far as prospects go. This is one of those trades where if it’s uneven at all, the difference is something small like a late draft pick or an auction buck.

So yeah, nice, simple, even trade.

The 2017 Minor League draft has been completed!

Our 2017 minor league draft has been completed. You can check out the full draft board and results right here.

This year’s draft kicked off on February 1 and wrapped up today, so it took us two weeks to get through five rounds and 80 picks. If my count is correct, there were 10 trades during that time, mostly of the auction budget-for-pick variety. So that was fun.

Jordan and I were asked if we were going to do a recap post of some kind and weren’t super interested. Aren’t people sick of our opinions on trades and stuff? Apparently not!

So just for fun — and because we have nothing to do until our final pre-auction cut down on February 27 — I decided to skim over the draft board and share some random thoughts as they pop into my head. Here goes…

Thought #1: Picking second, I was really shocked that Kevin Maitan went first overall. That’s what comparisons to Miguel Cabrera will do for you. For my own taste, a player that just turned 17-years-old is a bit rich for my blood here regardless of what the “upside” might be.

Thought #2: TBD had a great draft, both cashing in their own picks and aggressively acquiring others. Their haul: Alex Kiriloff, Cal Quantrill, Lucas Erceg, Walker Buehler, Jahmai Jones, Heath Quinn, and Bryan Reynolds. I hadn’t heard of Quinn, but all the other guys check boxes for me.

Thought #3: Defending champs Team Hydra did well too. They got Leody Taveras and Ramon Laureano early, two guys that are rising up lists fast, and then added Dustin Fowler and Jorge Bonifacio later. So they addressed a future outfield quite well. Plus, they somehow turned later picks into a total of $12 auction budget. I think if you can get a couple wildcard prospects and cash instead of just wildcard prospects, you’ve killed it.

Thought #4: So, speaking of trading picks for auction budget…

Look, I shipped out $6 to pick up Lourdes Gurriel because I’ve got a bunch of money and he’s major league ready. Or at least close. But man, Dusty dropped $26 by my count on assorted picks (Taylor Trammell, Will Benson, Joey Wentz, Mason Thompson, Cionel Perez, Jorge Ona). I have a really difficult time seeing how any of those guys are significantly better than whoever will be available after auction when free agency opens. The difference, of course, is $26. All prospects are gambles. I’d rather gamble that $26 on a bounce back player at auction who has the chance to be worth $40-$50 as soon as 2017 then to spend all that money just to fill roster spots.

Thought #5: Who’s Your Haddy? added $22 of auction budget by trading picks and still ended up with Miguel Andujar, who is close to contributing for the Yankees, and Adonis Medina, who shockingly came in at #91 on Baseball Prospectus’ top-101. This, to me, is just an awesome draft and a great use of non-premium picks.

In other words, the deeper you get into a draft, the less and less separation between players. We’re all throwing darts, but the bulls eye starts to shrink. So the difference between a fourth round pick and 10 assorted guys who will go undrafted and be picked up after the draft is slim. Why not take cash for those picks then and just add the undrafted guys for free?

Thought #6: The Wilfred Brimley Fightin’ Diabeetuses had a really good draft too. He tabbed Mickey Moniak and Delvin Perez in the first round, then took the lead on Rockies’ pitcher Riley Pint. That’s a lot of talent to take away from the draft. Pint’s a huge risk, obviously, but it’s not like he’s guaranteed to be in Colorado forever.

Thought #7: I like Senior Squids grabbing Zack Burdi in the last round. Relievers probably aren’t worth big salaries in our league right now, but he could be a closer in Chicago as soon as this year and costs nothing, then be $1 next year. Getting MLB-ready RPs in the draft seems like a good cheat code at the position assuming they perform decently.

Thought #8: The first player I didn’t immediately recognize was Daniel Gossett, who We Talk Fantasy Sports took in the back half of the second round.

Thought #9: Speaking of WTFS, they took Zack Collins with the 9th overall pick. He’s a catcher that is probably destined for 1B, which would obviously hurt his value. But I’ll be honest: if Nick Senzel had gone first, I was taking Corey Ray and then Collins. I obviously like guys that are close to the majors, and Collins provides extra value at catcher and his bat would play, at worst, as one of the two UT positions.

Thought #10: Shocker, Jordan took pitchers! Jason Groome, the first pitcher taken, is young and a ways off but felt like the obvious choice at #8. Adding Braxton Garrett and Ian Anderson, two guys on most top-100 lists, was good value too.

Thought #11: I love the gamble of Dinelson Lamet to cap a strong draft by Hustle Loyalty Respect with the very last pick. He’s not a highly thought of prospect, but he’s posted big minor league K numbers, has made it to Triple-A, and have you seen the Padres rotation? If he can simply crack the big league rotation, it’ll be worth it. And if he’s anywhere around average, he’ll be cheap and have value.

Thought #12: Okay, one more quick compliment for HLR: I like the Andres Gimenez pick a lot. He spent $1 to trade up a few spots and probably didn’t need to, but whatever. This is an 18-year-old at rookie ball, so make of that what you will, but last year he walked 46 times and had only 22 strikeouts in 275 PAs. That’s just silly.

Thought #13: In the group chat, Chris of Preseason Double Stuffs balked at Trumpa Loompa’s pick of Wladimir Galindo in the fourth round, saying, “18, GCL, questionable bat speed. No thanks.” Two things: first, I had no clue who this guy was so I looked him up. Second: he’s apparently not 18, he’s 20 (he was 19 during last playing season). And he didn’t play in the GCL, he played for the Eugene Emeralds of the Northwest League. The Cubs don’t even appear to have a GCL team. Nice right hand man you’ve hired, Ferns.

Thought #14: In Line 4 the Win picked someone named Jesus Luzardo was drafted. It made me think of these guys.

Thought #15: I can muster no more thoughts at this time. We’re having grilled cheese and soup for dinner, I think. Soup is awful but grilled cheese is pretty good. I put pickles on mine. Goodbye.

Trade: Senior Squids | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Senior Squids sends: SP Matt Garza (FA), SP Christian Friedrich (SP)
Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: RP Tony Zych (FA)

Andrew’s thoughts: Tony Zych isn’t worth keeping at $5 and neither Matt Garza or Christian Friedrich are likely to be either. So in the end, this is a free handout, giving Hustle Loyalty Respect a couple of depth arms for the balance of the year. Garza’s FIP is 4.57, Friedrich’s is 4.39. These are not good pitchers, but have you seen what’s on waivers? I like it for HLR. I don’t like it for the Squids, who got Garza for Russell Martin and have now given him away, thus making the net return for a quality catcher… Mike Minor.

It warrants mentioning that there was supposed to be some other small pieces going to HLR, but something went awry when offering the trade. So here we are. Let it be a lesson to you that before clicking “send” on an offer, take a moment to quality control yourself.

Jordan’s thoughts: I kind of thought we were over the Jesus Sucre trades, but then it was found out that Sucre is actually also Tony Zych.