2016 Auction Review – TBD

TBD

tbd

Is their team name to be determined, or does TBD stand for something else? We may never know. Anyway during the auction draft do you know that moment when you are kind of poking around looking at the other team to see where they’re at. TBD looks great looking at that list top down. Until you go down. They punted pitchers so hard that I had to take several looks. There’s a lot here to discuss, probably the most fun roster to look at.

Hitters – Outstanding

Yep, I had to give it to someone. 1-10 the hitters here are just outstanding. Now, Matt Wieters had not been flagged for a wuss injury again at the time of the draft so we will pretend he’s okay. Warning, fantasy all-star list incoming: Eric Hosmer, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant, Corey Seager, Troy Tulowitzki, David Peralta, JD Martinez, Miguel Sano, phew. Power, walks, contact, everything. The floor with this line up is so damn high that its impossible to ignore. If you have to nitpick, I can say that I don’t love Pillar in centerfield, but I have a feeling that will be solved at some point. Perhaps Pillar turns into a fantasy starter. Either way, I also don’t love spending $100 on short stops, but it¬†looks like it could work out well here. There’s a chance that Sano ends up finding a position which helps this line up even more.

Pitchers –¬†Whoops

Oh Christ. Really? I mean Phil Hughes is probably the most reliable starter here. Every other guy in that long list of eleven pitchers is someone I’m starting and praying each time. That’s a lot of prayers. Lets imagine that we are¬†in a bar and talking with a buddy who knows enough about sports to not be a complete dumb ass and you are going over roster? Andrew Heaney… Yeah he could be good this year. Jimmy Nelson, yeah he seems like he could be good this year. Edinson Volquez, I mean he’s probably alright. Hyun-jin Ryu, he’s still pitching? Oh he’s recovering from injury? Is he healthy? Well I guess if he’s healthy he’s probably good. Jonathan Gray, well when he’s not pitching in Colorado. You see where I’m going here? I’m not sure Derek Holland, Jorge Lopez, Hector Santiago, Wily Peralta, and Chris Heston are recognizable to your bar buddy so we won’t ask. I’m afraid that if TBD got three above average starters from this group, it would have to be considered a raging success, and that’s not good enough. Maybe there is something in the bullpen…Well TBD¬†drafted three relievers I guess.

Depth –¬†Uh-oh

Well, first off, those four right fielders only qualify for right field. Two of them are rookies. Tulo has to be slotted for the utility slot so his short stop advantage gets washed away. Enrique Hernandez covers a lot of spots, but he does not start daily for the Dodgers. I like Chris Carter, but not enough. The pitching depth doesn’t exist. There’s plenty of bullets to grab depth on this roster, but right now it is ugly as sin.

Why 2016 would be bad…¬†

Thigns are ugly if any less than two starting pitchers are viable from the group. If they don’t find three regular SPs, TBD’s¬†season is over. If Kris Bryant isn’t worth $75, or if both short stops fail to be transcendent hitters. The season is just over. They went all in on the hitters, I love them, but they have to show up. There is a real threat for this pitching staff to score below 100 points on a weekly basis. Considering a good weekly score should be above 500 or 600. That’s way to much to ask of any line up.

Why 2016 would be¬†good…¬†

Luck will happen here, before April seven or eight of the starters show their competency and have reliable roles. TBD then is able to trade one of them to someone else desperate for pitching and get a nice piece. TBD then is also able to cut the others to pick up depth elsewhere. Meanwhile Seager and Tulo end up being top 30 hitters overall. Kris Bryant challenges for MVP because of his bat. The hitters can hit the ceiling easily enough, just a matter of the pitchers climbing from the mud.

Where was the value at?

Immediately within the first hour of the auction¬†draft it was clear that value was not easy to find.¬†Prices of players were not¬†excruciatingly high or overspent. But, these prices were high enough to ensure that there was not large values at the top either. Shrewd drafting made Saturday’s event an interesting battle of attrition as the player pool continued to shrink. As the pool shrank there was a¬†seemingly never ending pile of teams with money looming over each auction.

Immediately, it looks like the teams that left money on the table are the most hurt. 50% of the league, 8-teams spent 100% of their budget. Leaving zero dollars left on the table. Of the remaining teams:

The Foundation – $1
Beach Bum – $5
Senior Squids – $6
TBD – $10
Preseason Favorite – $10
We Talk Fantasy Sports – $14
Capital City Ironmen – $21
The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses – $28

In some cases that unspent auction money being left on the table is not terribly frightening. But, at the bottom of that list, I can only imagine the day after regret. Good fantasy baseball talent auctioned off in that $10-$20 range. Even if you did not need a particular player, at least that drafted player has value. These extra auction dollars left unspent, are lost. They have no value.

Moving on to the auction money that got spent. More importantly how that money got spent. We can see how efficient teams were compared to this setting of the FanGraphs Auction Calculator. Keep in mind this calculator does not factor in our dynasty format (the hidden and unknown value of opportunity cost for keeping guys), nor does it fully understand our relievers scoring. But, for this exercise, and based on the results of the draft, it was quite accurate.

value

 

What you see above is the chart of how each of the teams did. Teams with positive values, overspent according to the FanGraphs calculator and the teams with negative values found bargains. The rank is from 1 “most efficient” to 16 “least efficient”.

Now before you go and say well done and patting yourself on the back, this is removing a lot of context away from the story. I believe you are sitting in a great place if you were most efficient with value, and you spent all of your auction budget. My team The Foundation finds itself there, so take that bias for what it is worth.

If you did not spend all of your auction money and you were not efficient in how you spent the money either, well you may have some extra work to do. Maybe your projections and targets are valued differently than how FanGraphs did and if so you’re probably okay! FanGraphs and projections are¬†wrong more often than not.

Going a step further, let us take a look at everyone’s “best value”. What you should see below is a table¬†that has the FanGraphs calculator value, how much they were paid for in the auction, and then the difference.

 

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The best value of the day was projections wonder-boy Wei-Yin Chen who was bought for $17, and had been projected to be worth $48. Chen’s¬†transition to the National¬†League, to the Marlins ballpark and being away from the American League East is likely positive.

It does seems like pitchers stole the value show:¬†Alex Wood, CJ Wilson, James Shields, Jeff Samardzija and Jimmy Nelson were their representative team’s best value and created over $20 in value per player. Outfielders might be the next undervalued commodity in the draft as you see Alex Gordon, Nick Markakis, Melky Cabrera, Josh Reddick and Khris Davis on the list above.

Finally, we also have a look at each team’s “worst” value. Now, I must warn you. If you’re the kind of guy who’s into the hot young star and cannot stand to see them in any negative light, please look away.

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Corey Seager, Addison Russell, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Phew these¬†boys cost a pretty penny to claim. Trea Turner, Noah Syndergaard, Randal Grichuk¬†and¬†Jurickson Profar were all also coveted prospects¬†on draft day. None of those guys are terribly far off in lost value, they’re all capable of being worth what they’re paid. Plus we have discussed before about the opportunity cost of getting said players. There is value in these overspends. But, how much?

Trade: Preseason Favorites | TBD

Preseason Favorites sends: $7 in 2016 Auction Budget & 2016 232nd overall selection (15th round)
TBD sends: 2016 110th overall selection (7th round)

Jordan’s thoughts: Again with all these other trades, we’ll see when the players get selected. We know that PF picked Daz Cameron with the 110th pick. I’m not sure that’s worth $7 to jump up to get, but it is definitely worth $7 to move back to the last round. I think the auction budget being traded around was inflated already, but $7, that’s a useful player in the draft. Daz Cameron is years away if he ever makes something of himself.

Trade: Team Aarnicdy | TBD

Team Aarnicdy sends: 2016 56th overall selection (4th round)
Team TBD sends:¬†2016 142nd overall selection (9th round) & $7 in ’16 Auction Budget

Jordan’s thoughts: I like this deal for both teams. I believe in the value of $7. It won’t buy a great player, but if you can now easily bid $2 on 5-7 players versus settling for a dollar, you now have buying power to pick those guys at the end of the draft instead of being stuck. While the early arguement is that it just raises the prices of those players. I’ll still argue that having the flexibility of picking those players is invaluable. The 56th overall pick was used to select outfielder¬†Cornelius Randolph. The 10th overall selection out of high school in the 2015 minor league draft is just 18 years old, extremely raw, and really seems like a reach to trade up for.

Trade: Rocky Mountain | TBD

Rocky Mountain Oysters sends: 2016 7th overall selection (1st round)
TBD sends:¬†2016 78th overall selection (5th round) &¬†$25 in ’16 Auction Budget

Jordan’s thoughts: This is a pretty solid trade. I like it for both teams. TBD doesn’t sacrifice either one of their first two picks to get another first round draft pick. The cost of 25 auction budget could be devastating, but without any pre-cursor draft, it’s hard to judge what kind of talent that player will be. For RMO I like getting the cash, and falling back to the fifth round might not be all that much different in the grand scheme of things. The extra $25 provides a lot of flexibility in the draft coming up.

Update: The 7th overall selection was used on Rangers prospect OF – Lewis Brinson. High upside, could be a real star, a tad raw. Interesting use of auction funds to get a guy that’s a bit further off. Time will tell how the decision plays out.

Update 2: And now we know the 78th overall pick was used for Touki Toussaint. Toussaint is a former first round pick, high stuff, underdeveloped command, make or break pitcher. You love the upside if he figures it out. The downside is a bullpen pitcher. For the 78th pick its a good spot for RMO. Again I’m going to side with RMO getting the favorable side of the deal.

The Inaugural Minor League Draft Order

Here with Dynasty Grinders we do nothing short of awesome. With that said, this commissioner lives in a very supportive household, where this draft order selection was done with help from my whole family. Thank you!

The order was spun going from 8th to 16th, then from 7th to 1st. It was quite fun.

Final draft order:

16 – Sano Big Deal
15 – The Foundation
14 – TBD
13 – BetterNameLater
12 – Who’s Your Haddy
11 – Hustle Loyalty Respect
10 – Beach Bum
9 – Team aarnicdy
8 – Preseason Favorite
[11:21]
7 – Rocky Mountain Oysters
6 – Team Canada
5 – Team johnnywise
4 – We Talk Fantasy Sports
3 – Capital City Senators
2 – Team Gaut
1 – Team Hydra
The minor league draft will begun as a slow draft on February 1st after everyone has paid their league dues. Good luck!