Three Up Three Down – Carlos Santana

Carlos Santana signed a 3 year $60 mil deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, after 8 MLB seasons with the Cleveland Indians.  It was the Los Angeles Dodgers that signed him as an amateur free agent back in 2004, before trading him to Cleveland for Casey Blake, near the 2008 trade deadline.  He started out as a catcher, but by 2014 he would no longer play the position, moving to 1B/DH.

With the addition on Edwin Encarnacion last offseason, the Indians felt comfortable letting Santana walk in free agency.  They also just signed Yonder Alonso for 2 years and $19 mil, a bargain compared to Santana’s price tag. Cleveland also has two 1B prospects in Bobby Bradley and Nellie Rodriguez.  Both are big HR and SO guys.

Philly and Santana were not exactly a perfect match, but they worked things out.  The Phillies already have a future 1B in Rhys Hoskins, who took the MLB by storm this past summer, hitting 18 HRs in 212 PA.  That was a 58 HR pace!  Hoskins will turn 25 before the 2018 MLB seasons throws its first pitch and now has to share an OF with Nick Williams (24), Odubel Herrera (26) and Aaron Altherr (27).  There is also Tommy Joseph (26), who is likely to get his ABs at 1B.  The Phillies either have a trade in mind, or they just stunted the growth of some of their top prospects who might never reach their full potential.  Only time will tell.

Overall, the switch-hitting Santana has turned in a .363 OBP in nearly 4600 plate appearances since establishing himself as a Major League regular back in 2011, averaging 153 games played and 24 homers per season along the way. One would think that a move to a much more hitter-friendly environment, Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, should help to improve his power output as well (though his .196 ISO in that time is already plenty strong). – MLB Trade Rumors

Let’s take a look at how Carlos Santana compares to other 1B and the rest of the league over the past two seasons. We will look at HRs, ISO, wOBA, OBP & BB%. When sorted by each category, we will find Santana and then list the players ranked 3 spots above and below him.

Home Runs

Of the 22 qualified 1B, according to FanGraphs, Santana ranks 10th over the last two seasons in total home runs with 57.  The average total is 51.2 with a high of 80 (Edwin Encarnacion) and a low of 18 (Joe Mauer).

$92 Paul Goldschmidt 60
$66 Jose Abreu 58
$19 Wil Myers 58
$31 Carlos Santana 57
$75 Miguel Cabrera 54
$19 Hanley Ramirez 53
$3 Ryan Zimmerman 51

*2018 Salary

Zimmerman’s 51 HRs for $3 is the highest $/HR at 1B – 17.  Goldschmidt ranks last at .65.  Santana ranks 10th at 1.84.

16 of the 48 qualified hitters with 50 home runs over the last two years are 1B eligible.

There are 131 qualified bats according to FanGraphs.  Santana ranks 32nd in HRs since 2016.

ISO

Santana ranks 9th of 22 at 1B.

Only 7 1B eligible players have more XBH than Santana over the last two years.

Santana ranks 30/131 eligible bats in the MLB since 2016.

The Phillies new 1B ranks 25th overall in XBH during his final two years with the Indians.

wOBA

Carlos Santana ranks 10th in wOBA at 1B.

He ranks 31st out of 131 eligible bats at all positions.

OBP

Santana ranks 9th in OBP at 1B.

He ranks 31st out of 131 eligible bats across all positions.

BB%

Carlos Santana ranks 7th in BB% since 2016.

He ranks 10th in the MLB with Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista being the only non 1B eligible.

When looking at these five categories and focusing on just 1B, Santana ranks very similarly to Goldschmidt, Abreu, Cabrera & Belt.  When you take it into the league, of 1B that cost at least $20 and have scored a total of 1,000+ fantasy points over the past two seasons, Santana has the 2nd highest fantasy points per dollar, behind Belt, while Goldschmidt & Cabrera sit at the bottom.

 

Trade: Capital City Income | In Line for the Win

Capital City Income sends: RP: Cody Allen ($9)
In Line for the Win sends:  $2 2018 Auction Budget

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02: When I saw this trade go down via email notification, I wasn’t aware of the financials so I asked Bailey on slack and his response was a classic ” $2, assuming he read my note.” This is as good a time as any to remind people to read the notes in trade propsals.

Before I get down to #analysis, it should be noted this was a trade for $2.  It’s less than .5% of someone’s auction budget, so even if Neal changes his mind and doesn’t even keep Allen… no real harm was done. This is very obviously a minor trade.

For Bailey: Oh what a difference a year makes.  It was just last offseason when I was flooding everyone with offers of Adam Wainwright  and Yordano Ventura (RIP) for minuscule budget amounts like this one. I was told by both commissioners via conversation and trade reviews that it made no sense to sell someone for so cheap. “You should just throw them back in to see if they go for more.” Fast forward a year later and Bailey has earned his first Hustle Merit Badge(TM). Congrats!  Bailey gets $2 for a guy he wasn’t going to keep and probably feels comfortable with someone else having for $9.  People keep handing money over to Bailey at the rate that he will somehow keep $500 worth of players and be in on Ohtani, not really but getting closer.

 

For Neal

 

Including the $11 he has invested in Allen for 2018 ($2 to Bailey and a $9 price), Neal also has Devenski ($9) and Jansen ($14). To keep all 3 would cost him $34.

Expensive relievers aren’t my thing and I don’t really know how to judge Allen’s worth in general for this league let alone with the new scoring system.  I personally rather not invest in relievers at the expense of starters or hitters, but I could see why Neal might be inclined to have 3 of the best relievers in the game…. lineup setting.

It was about a month ago when Dustin Pedroia came up in a slack conversation and I joked about how he wasn’t in Neal’s lineup very often, he assured me  he was.  I had to go look at the tape. Sure enough, despite being one of IL4W’s best hitters on a ppg basis, Dustin Pedroia sat on the bench for a staggering 25% of his PAs. In a daily baseball league, you’re just not giving yourself a chance if you’re not starting your best players.  By having 3 of the best relievers in the game, Neal will hopefully “set it and forget it” all year unless injured. Not having to deal with picking up  or playing matchups with relievers  is a huge time saver.

It’s going to cost him 6-7% of his budget to have the luxury of not dealing with relievers, but for some teams it may be worth it.

I also think having an elite bullpen raises some interesting possibilities if your season goes south.  If IL4W is out of it by the trade deadline, does a contending team who barely spent on a bullpen buy a whole bullpen from Neal? I don’t think it would be crazy. In real baseball we see a team sell their best reliever all the time, but it would be really exciting to see a team sell 3 elite relievers to one team.

Rule Change Voting 2016

After giving it some thought, we’ve decided that staggering rule change discussion and voting is likely to be the clearest, most efficient way of doing this. Dedicating a couple days to discuss, debate, and then vote on each rule allows the league to stay focused on one thing at a time and not get sidetracked.

Rules to discuss and proposals to vote on are listed below.

Results will be published here as they are determined.

As a reminder, it is NOT majority vote. In order for a new rule to be voted into policy, it must receive at least 10 votes.

One vote per team.

Expand postseason championship bracket from four teams to six.

  • Goal: increases odds of teams to make playoffs, thus incentivizing buying, de-incentivizing selling, etc. More playoff spots also keeps teams in the playoff race longer, i.e. wildcard spots in real life.
  • Proposal: expand championship bracket to six teams, where the top two teams that qualified for the bracket based on W/L receive a bye. 
  • Follow up: Changes to payouts for post-season would be rewritten and voted upon.

RESULT: Vote passes. Championship bracket will be expanded to six teams.

Adjust payouts based on playoff expansion.

  • Because of the change of the playoffs, there needs to be a chance in payouts, two options came from the discussion.

RESULT: 

Regular Season:
Most Points Scored: $150
Best H2H Record: $150

Post Season:
1st $850
2nd $400
3rd $250
4th $175
5th $150
6th $150
7th $75

Push trade deadline to mid-week.

  • Goal: Having the trade deadline on a Sunday kinda sucks, because people have shit to do and aren’t necessarily around on the weekend.
  • Proposal: Instead of the end of Week 17 (Sunday), move the deadline up to Thursday of Week 17 at 11:59 PM/EST.

RESULT: Vote passes. The trade deadline will be moved to Thursday of Week 17 at 11:59 PM/EST.

Enforce a minimum number of starts per week.

  • Goal: We had a couple instances where teams only used four or five of seven starts, but ideally teams are using all or almost all of their allotment to compete.
  • Proposal: Minimum of six (6) starts per week, with a -15 applied to each start that goes unusued below that number. Setting it to six sets a baseline for competitiveness but also frees managers up to “protect” big leads over the weekend by not risking using a seventh start that could go haywire.

RESULT: Vote cancelled. No start minimums will be enforced at this time.

Simultaneous Schedule

  • Goal: Create a balanced schedule atmosphere and further removing variance of luck involved in a week to week world.
  • Proposal: Creating a schedule where each roster faces off vs three other teams in the league per week. Each team would play each other team four times in a season. Each team would only manage the one lineup.

RESULT: Vote cancelled/proposal retracted.

Replace free agency with FAAB.

  • Goal: Make it tougher to stream players, add strategy, eliminate the first come/first serve aspect.
  • Proposal: Each team gets $150 worth of free agent budget. This is separate from a team’s auction budget. Use a blind bid system where highest bid wins. You pay what you bid (not $1 more than next highest bid). Minimum bid is $0. Winning bid does not become salary (you may keep a player you add next year for $5, plus they are eligible for greed — same FA system as 2016). Tie bids will be broken based on current standings. Bids process daily at 11 AM/EST (a single processing time makes it so that owners cannot simply wait for lineups, then poach available players who are playing that day). FAAB budget is not available for trade.

RESULT: Vote passes. A FAAB waiver system will used beginning with the 2017 season.

Prohibit adding free agents directly to the disabled list.

  • Goal: It is conceivable that a valuable player is unowned, gets added to their MLB team’s disabled list, then picked up by a team and immediately placed to the DL without a corresponding drop/penalty. Probably doesn’t matter but can’t hurt to vote on.

RESULT: Vote cancelled. No one seemed to care about this. There’s an easy option in Fantrax that prevents it, so we may just flip it on. 

Draft order decided by consolation playoff outcome.

  • Goal: To make the playoffs have meaning for more teams, to encourage year long roster management, to disincentivize bottoming out for a better pick.
  • Proposal: TBD pending possible playoff format change

RESULT: Vote cancelled. There was not enough support to move forward to a vote.

Lift the rule prohibiting minor leaguers (green flags) from being held on the 30-man major league roster.

  • Fantrax does not have anything built in that will police prospects being on the major league roster as “invalid roster.” Last year, we manually enforced a rule by spot checking rosters for prospects that had been held up for a week (one week was treated as a buffer for when a player gets unexpectedly sent down by his MLB team). 

RESULT: Vote does not pass. The manually enforced rule lives on.

Countdown to the trade deadline…

 Just a reminder to everyone in the league, our trade deadline this year is Sunday, August 7, at 11:59 PM EDT.