Andrew’s thoughts: Wow, what an exciting turn of events. The race to be the Rockies’ first baseman seems to have ended, and Hustle Loyalty Respect’s Daniel Murphy is the lucky winner. Johnny Hustle be all like:
Literally overnight, Murphy’s value skyrocketed. His Steamer projection went way, way up. Check this out:
For Hustle Loyalty Respect, this is a windfall. This is easily the greatest thing that’s happened in his franchise’s illustrious history. He “traded” literally nothing to land the DAMN Rockies first baseman. Truly incredible. We’re talking unprecedented luck here. I just love this “trade” for HLR. When you can add an asset like this in exchange for nothing… just, wow.
For We Talk Fantasy Sports, well, I don’t understand this “trade” at all. They are actually going to be paying Ian Desmond, back-up 1B and possible platoon LF, the only hitter to ever go to Coors Field and get significantly worse, $4 more than the actual Rockies 1B. I’m referring to Daniel Murphy of HLR, to be clear. Just as Murphy’s projection went way up overnight, Desmond’s projection went way down. He lost nearly 100 projected points and is now projected to amass as many points as someone named… *squints*… Austin Dean.
But as bad as this “trade” is for WTFS, it’s even worse somehow for Senior Squids. Not only did he not get the Rockies 1B. But instead, he has Eric Hosmer at an astounding cost of $32. Yes, that’s right, Eric Hosmer. Over the last full three seasons of baseball, Hosmer ranks second among all qualified hitters with a 58.2% ground ball rate. Only — OH SHIT! — Ian Desmond has a worse ground ball rate, at 58.6%. Sure, there’s some hope for Hosmer. Why, you ask? Here’s why: Hosmer has 5,070 career plate appearances. And as we all know, power comes later in the career. In fact, every power hitter in baseball history took more than 5,000 plate appearances to learn how to hit home runs. Barry Bonds had just four home runs at the 5,070 career plate appearances mark. He went on, as we all know, to hit 758 more from there. No bull, just facts.
Over the last two years, Eric Hosmer has hit 43 home runs. That’s 33 fewer than, oh… *draws name from hat*… Nelson Cruz, who by the way has hit 43 or more dingers in a single season twice. But he’s old and expensive (a whopping $8 more than Eric “Slow Roller to Short” Hosmer) though, and as we all know, we subtract points in this league based on age.
So in summation, I like this trade for HLR. Any time you can get the Rockies 1B instead of Ian Desmond or Eric Hosmer, you just have to do it.
Jordan’s thoughts: I’ve never heard of the two prospects in this “trade,” but Daniel Murphy seems good.
Andrew’s thoughts: I do not know if either of these players would have been kept or cut by their respective teams. Only Senior Squids truly knows that. Either way, here they are now, a bench hitter and a relief pitcher, traded for one another. And quite honestly, I’m riveted.
I think both teams are winners here, because both teams got to experience the magnificent rush of completing a trade.
Jordan’s thoughts: The moment Matt Adams signed with Washington and was no longer an option for the next COLORADO ROCKIES 1B, I stopped caring about him.
Andrew’s thoughts: I’m sorry Keith, but I don’t have a whole lot nice to say about this one. Hunter Renfroe has a ton of raw power and is $13 cheaper, but he’s got a sub-.300 OBP in almost 1,000 career plate appearances. He seems like a guy that only has a full time gig because the Padres don’t have any better option. In this league, I like him as more of a rotating UT2 guy or a back-up outfielder and wouldn’t feel great rolling him out as a daily starter.
I thought WTFS’ offense was in trouble after trading for Madison Bumgarner and I think this just makes it worse. According to Steamer, this is something like a 150 point downgrade for WTFS.
I like this trade for the Squids.
Jordan’s thoughts: I think there is some potential that Renfroe figures things out and ends up being pretty great. I see some shine potential. For that I don’t mind the trade for WTFS. I tend to agree with Bailey on all accounts. Clearly this is a great trade for Squids. The problem with low OBP guys in our league though is that they’re really boon or bust and can really sink weeks for you.
I’ll give this deal an “I love it” to the Squids…and for We Talk Fantasy Sports “I get it, but meh” ratings.
Andrew’s thoughts: I love this trade for Marshall Law so, so much. It reminds me of the real-life Nationals/Rays/Padres trade for Trea Turner, where the Nats basically crashed a trade between the Rays and Padres and came away with the most appealing talent. Marshall gave up what I see as four lukewarm assets (Taveras seems like a low power guy whose speed doesn’t matter as much in our scoring; the other three pieces are pure lotto tickets) to get back two young, cheap impact pieces in Nimmo and Winker and a decent flier on Lamet, who was solid in 2017 before requiring Tommy John. Honestly, I’d rather have Nimmo or Winker alone than Bumgarner at $60 to keep or the package WBFD received.
For WBFD though, I get it. At $60, Bumgarner was a very likely cut as we’ve seen his skills and health begin to descend, and now there are even rumors he may be traded out of his hugely favorable home park. Steamer projections have Bumgarner as the 17th highest scoring pitcher for 2019, but that honestly seems a little rich to me. I’m just a little surprised he didn’t get the Nimmo/Winker package here. But if you’re going to cut a guy anyway, getting four zero-cost pieces like this is clearly better long-term.
And as for We Talk Fantasy Sports, well, I applaud the continued aggressive addition to try and compete in 2019. First it was Corey Kluber, then Dallas Keuchel, now Bumgarner. Still, while their pitching is very, very much improved, I look at that offense and wonder if it can possibly keep up. Losing Nimmo and Winker gives them two pretty big starting hitting holes, in my opinion, and Bumgarner might need to be prime Mad-Bum just to offset that.
Jordan’s thoughts: My goal here is to be the creme filling in this turd sandwich of a trade review. Obviously I have a hard on for Jesse Winker who I drafted with my first round pick back in our first minor league draft. He seems good now and the Reds let Billy Hamilton go.
I agree that projections have soured on Madison Bumgarner and that is not completely hard to understand. However, I’ll disagree with with figurative “buns” and say that Bumgarner at $60 is more than fair and particularly attractive. I think if you’re on top and have a salary crunch, perhaps you have a different perspective on market value.
I love the trade for Marshall Law and We Talk Fantasy Sports here. Marshall Law showing how a rebuild in this league should work. You build a core with current rising talent vs sacking a whole number of seasons for a wish and a hope. Which is what I think the WBFDs has done here. I don’t mind turning MadBum into a bunch of pieces. But the draft picks aren’t helping you soon, and the prospects are okay. Perhaps you get a good pitcher and a decent outfielder out of it in a season or two and perhaps those prospects turn into something too. But, odds are actually against you.
I think with any game you want to position yourself to win and a key step is identifying your win condition(s). WTFS appears to have found theirs with identifying needing a front line starter to help sway weeks in a head-to-head format. It works. ML identified needing to acquire useful assets while still acquiring points. Say these guys blossom, and you’re a piece or two away, they have assets they could push the chips in. It can work. WBFD identified needing to wait another three years. Has that worked ever?
Hustle’s Toxic $0.02: Well this was a super fun trade. I think in all my years of playing fantasy sports I’ve seen very few if any other legit three way trades. So for that, I applaud the ability to pull it off. I am truly inspired.
For WFBD: I think Gaut did OK here if you subscribe to the notion that Bumgarner is in a big decline. Streamer projects a near 4 ERA, FIP, and XFIP for Bumgarner in 2019 which makes a $60 investment in that subpar to say the least. If Bumgarner gets traded those numbers would have to be worse, unless its to the Astros. If Bumgarner is the guy he is projected to be, then getting a couple pieces for him seems fine. Gaut will have $60 to spend on Mike Leake and Mike Leake accessories in the auction as well as a couple neat picks. I’m not a fan of Taveras (as I stated in the first Taveras deal this offseason), seems like a long shot in being better than a replacement level OF here. I do think I like Bukauskas better than most so thats cool too. Getting some assets for a guy who should be borderline be cut based on performance seems like a good idea. If Bumgarner bounces back, Gaut may wonder if he could have gotten a bit more.
For WTFS: As Bailey stated, Keith’s rotation is much improved. Even if Bumgarner isn’t peak he’s still startable almost every time out. The team’s rotation went from arguably worst to above average through a course of trades this offseason, so that is indeed commendable. The offense is a work in progress and will be more difficult to fill after giving away two cheap promising OFers. Choo and Blackmon are nice OFers to have, but after that it kinda falls off. 1b, 3b, one OF and 2 UTIL spots have to be occupied by Sano, Shaw, Desmond, Happ, Calhoun, I’m not sure who the next best hitter is after these 5. Having these guys as starters in your lineup seems incredibly risky since 4/5 of them were a minus at their position last year. Keith will have to find someway to supplant this either by trade or auction. This team at least had a direction now and with proper attention could push for a playoff spot.
For ML: There’s a lot to like here. Winker could potentially be the best asset in the whole trade. as a $3 cost controlled OF batting near the top of the Reds lineup. If las year is any indication he’s a very solid OF to have and if his power trends up he’s potentially a beast. I think Nimmo was obviously tremendously underrated going into last season and was one of the best pickups of the year, but I think he could be a tad overrated in 2019. That being said, he seems like he has the floor of being perfectly acceptable OF depth, which is valuable. I think getting the Lamet flier is the perfect thing a rebuilding team should be doing, ad as a 3rd piece of a deal, seems great. I think these 3 pieces are probably better than a 1/2 rounder and Bukauskas, not a guarantee, but I love the odds.
P Tyler Phillips (prospect)
P Ramon Rosso (prospect)
Jordan’s thoughts: I owned stock in Kendrys Morales late last season in a different league and he went on to hit homers in eight straight games during a playoff run. It was neat. Overall last season Morales was pretty poor for a 1B/UT player. He’s not expensive, not a drain on your roster, but apparently he hits better blind.
This deal literally cost Bailey nothing. These pitcher prospects boast FVs of 40 and 35+ and neither are top 20 for their respective teams. They’re below AA and while something could get them on the hype train, it’s not a shoe in.
I like this deal for Bailey. Even if he cuts Morales prior to the draft, he gave up nothing. If he keeps Morales, it probably means he got a decent haul for Nelson Cruz. Win win for him. I assume Keith sees something in one or both guys to be excited about the deal. If so great good for him too.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
This is probably the worst trade off the offseason so far. Keith managed to trade away a much cheaper better Kendrys Morales for nothing while giving away some small but actual assets for a much more expensive much shittier Ian Desmond. I would rather have a 2nd round pick, Clint Frazier, OR Kendrys Morales than Ian Desmond, Ramon Rosso, or Tyler Phillip. It’s not even close really. If I had all 3 of the latter pieces, I would BUNDLE them for any one of the three former in a heartbeat.
The prospects here are truly useless. I can’t imagine what Bailey said or Keith read to have needed these guys. Between Rosso and Phillips you’re looking at a 20 % one of them is a bad pitcher in the majors in 2-3 years, which is an asset in abundance on the waiver wire. Meanwhile Morales has value as a bat who you can start at 1B or in either of your two utility spots vs righties. Morales had a monster 2nd half and while he’s no spring chicken and could decline, the price was right compared to other guys acquired this offseason for WTFS.
If you read my review of Kremer for Zimmerman, this is like that but worse because Keith paid assets earlier for a much worse and more expensive 1b than either Morales/Zimmerman and at the same time managed to get a worse pitching prospect than the 4th best Orioles pitching prospect. I’d have Kremer ahead of Rosso just because at least he’s in AA and was a Dodger at one point. In no way am I writing off the careers of Rosso or Phillips, heck I owned Phillips once, but these are no different than guys who can be picked up at will or with 5th round picks.
Organized Chaos trades away
Desmond, Ian 1B/LF $28
We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away 2020 Draft Pick, Round 2 (We Talk Fantasy Sports)
Frazier, Clint OF $3 (Year 2 cost controlled)
Hustle’s Toxic $.02 Like Jordan, Keith is also making up for last year’s mistake. Last year Keith left a lot of money on the table. This year? He’s spending it on Sano, Desmond, Kluber, and others. It’s certainly a better strategy than last year and I’m confident his team will be better. That being said, Ian Desmond costs 28 bucks and barely had an OBP over 300. His WRC + was under 90. This is not the kind of player you want to pay a decent chunk for at 1B/LF.
I do however like this trade more for Swinson. At some point, Swinson is going to run out of minor league spots to utilize, but he’s making good use of them here with a major league ready Frazier who I’d consider a decent buy low guy. Swinson has money so wasting $3 on Frazier who might not play a ton this year isn’t a big deal. Frazier is still projected to be a pretty good power hitter with a decent hit tool, it’s just a matter of time before he finds a spot. 2nd round picks have some value in this league, so it’s nice to acquire one. Losing Desmond shouldn’t be a big deal considering his age, price, production, and where Chaos’ team is right now.
Bottom line, I feel like Keith could have used the 3 bucks on Frazier, spent the leftover 25 on similar or better production than Desmond, and kept his 2nd round pick next year. There’s players who have already been cut who I think aren’t a huge step down, if any, from Desmond that should be less than 25, even in our poopy auction.
Andrew’s Thoughts: I don’t have much to add other than to point out that Ian Desmond‘s horrible offensive numbers came… WHILE HE PLAYED HIS HOME GAMES AT COORS FIELD. That’s kind of unforgiveable.
As a Nationals fan, I’ll always have an affinity for Ian Desmond. And I’m not strictly opposed to adding roughly $30 to a budget to bet on a bounceback from a player. But Ian Desmond doesn’t have that high a ceiling to begin with. If he bounces back to a .325 wOBA, you’ve still invested too much. I just think he’s a cut and an overpaid, below average fantasy asset. I like this deal for Swinson.
TBD trades away
3B Miguel Sano ($41+)
We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
2019 2nd Round Pick
Andrew’s Thoughts: I like that WTFS is adding pieces to compete. I think Miguel Sano was pretty clearly a cut though and keeping him at $41+ is steep. He was great in 2017 but struck out a ton and was awful in 2018. If you get 2017 Sano, it’s worth it. If you get 2018 Sano, it’s not. Of course, for a second round pick, who even cares? WTFS could have something better come along between now and auction, cut bait, and be out a likely shitpick. That wouldn’t be so terrible.
As it stands now, the auction just lost one more interesting name. I can see the money being left on the table now.
I find it simply wonderful that WTFS is once again paying big money to a disappointing Twins prospect.
Jordan’s Thoughts: I weirdly thing Sano probably goes for something similar to $30-40 in the draft. He’s projected to be a $5-15 player, but what if the projections are wrong? It isn’t a huge reach to see Sano back in the form of 2017. Assuming his personal issues are cleared up, and his starting job is cemented, he’ll have the opportunity.
Its a pretty big gamble. But, Sano is 25 and has done it before. I’m not cheering for him, but that matters little. I’ll give the winner and participation ribbon of the trade to WTFS.
We Talks Fantasy Sports trades away:
1B/3B Carlos Santana ($33)
$15 in 2019 Auction Budget
Jordan’s thoughts: I really like Dallas Keuchel going to pair with newly acquired Corey Kluber. Spending money for pitchers who show up and pitch. Keuchel lost a tiny bit off the K/9 last year, but Steamer projects him to come back up a tad. He doesn’t allow homer and he makes 30+ starts a season. He’s very valuable in this format and at that price point an easy keeper.
Shin-soo Choo quietly played 146 games last year with a .355 wOBA. Even if he loses a tiny bit of edge here, he’s a great value at $19. He’s the good kind of boring fantasy player that many people forget about.
Carlos Santana is presumably getting traded to the Mariners, and perhaps traded again. Who knows what Jerry Dipoto is doing. Santana fits in well in a league where there’s two utility spots. Getting the auction money to pay down his contract this year helps quite a bit too.
While I don’t see anything really wrong with getting Carlos Santana, he’s quite good. I’d rather have Choo and Keuchel. I get that the Ironmen are running into a bit of a roster crunch of sorts and there’s definitely reasons to bail on these two players, I think the return is just as risky and doesn’t quite have the value going forward that you would normally see. I think the Lott brother walk away with a win here.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
I guess I didn’t get to shit on Keith’s previous trade so I’ll just get this one. Nah, actually I like this trade for both teams. $47 Keuchel isn’t a great price but it’s fine compared to what the Auction might yield, and it’s not like you’re ever committed to keeping someone for more than 1 year. At the very least he’ll get innings and be someone you can throw in your lineup each week. Bailey needed a 3b so giving up Choo for Santana instead of relying on Auction seems wise. Choo for Santana straight up seems fine, so if Bailey had to throw in a pitcher he wasn’t keeping or garnering much trade interest, I can see why he did it.
Trade feels needs for both teams and presumably (outside of injury) everyone here gets kept which means… the auction just got that much weaker…. AGAIN.
TBD trades away
SP Corey Kluber ($86)
SP/RP Dennis Santana ($3.50)
SP Michael King (prospect)
$20 in 2019 Auction Budget
We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
Corbin Burnes (prospect)
German Marquez $7
2019’s 1st round (1st Overall) minor league draft pick
Jordan’s Thoughts: I think that German Marquez is quite valuable. Last year he started 33 games and scored 1107 points. That’s a pretty huge value for a $7 starter. However, I get that he’s kinda scary being a pitcher (they blow up), he’s a Colorado Rockies pitcher (no explanation necessary), and early projections have him regressing a tiny bit.
Corbin Burnes went from a starting pitcher prospect to getting shoved into the “out-getter” (bullpen) role for the Brewers organization. He was mildly successful in his 30 appearances, but projection systems do see him getting back into a starting role. He seems quite useful despite the slight risk. He’s cost controlled and easy to slot into your roster until the Brewers make up their mind.
Obviously the first overall pick has tremendous potential value, and here presented itself a a decent piece in a trade for Corey Kluber.
We Talk Fantasy Sports got Corey Kluber and two spare parts. Michael King seems like he might have some potential, and while Santana if he makes the Dodgers rotation is immediately valuable, he will receive the free agent minimum in 2019.
Using STEAMER projections Kluber is projected to be the best starting pitcher available. Almost no matter how you value pitchers, Kluber’s keeper value is really favorable. Tossing in the $20 is icing on the cake. Kluber projected to be right in line with where he was last year which was basically 40 points a start. If you have money to spend, Kluber is the right guy to spend it on.
Now everyone’s favorite part where I pick the winner, and I have to go with TBD. I think its pretty close. I don’t like that WTFS sent off Marquez in this deal, and with him in it, clearly understand why TBD took the offer. Marquez is just too valuable to let go in my opinion.
Andrew’s Thoughts: I agree with most of what Jordan already said and think it’s pretty obvious this trade hinges on German Marquez. If he’s truly the guy he morphed into last year, this is likely a massive win for TBD, as they get a much, much cheaper ace and the #1 overall pick. All of Marquez’s numbers from last year look legit to me. But… like 15-20 starts ago, he was “just a guy.” A guy on the Rockies. So Marquez is a fairly risky proposition still.
Kluber, meanwhile, is beginning to decline a bit I think but is still a top of the rotation stud. He averaged almost 40 points per game in a year a lot of his peripherals slipped. Pretty amazing.
Both teams accomplish something they needed here. TBD takes on some risk in order to free up some budget space and WTFS lands a bankable pitcher. I’ll say that I like this more for WTFS simply because they got back a more reliable piece, but again, if 2018 Marquez is future Marquez, then this deal looks fantastic for TBD. I will also confess that part of why I like it for WTFS is because this trade screams “quick rebuild” and I’m pro teams trying to turn things around for their teams quickly.
CAP sends: 1B Yordan Alvarez (minors), SP Nate Pearson (minors), SS Freddy Galvis ($5) HLR sends: 3B/RF Nicholas Castellanos ($20), CF Blake Rutherford (minors), SS Addison Russell ($44), $9 2018 Auction Budget
Jordan’s thoughts: I am inclined to trust these two teams know what they’re doing given that they appeared in last year’s championship. But who knows? I am Jordan and I sure as hell do not know.
In this deal, HLR seems to just be adding prospects in order to flip them after the season starts to one of the tanking teams. Yordan Alvarez could be awesome, or he could be AJ Reed in left field. Nate Pearson could be Noah Syndergaard, or he could blow his arm out. More likely, he shoots up prospect lists in 2018 and HLR trades him for profit. Or the Blue Jays announce that Pearson is being converted to a relief pitcher and HLR trades him to Hydra for all their good players. I’ve got to be perfectly honest. I am Jordan and since these players are prospects, I have never heard of them.
The best piece going to HLR in this deal might just be Freddy Galvis, who is not particularly good but shows up every day. These same things were once said about Andrelton Simmons and he is now a valuable fantasy commodity. As a True Grinder™, Galvis embodies what HLR is all about, minus the penchant for trolling. Maybe HLR will flip Freddy to one of the teams that don’t have an obvious resolution at SS going into the season, who could use the cheap, at-least-he-plays-every-day depth.
Also, why did HLR include the $9? Does he just hate Shohei Ohtani? It seems like that money would’ve been better served adding one of the many awesome available players at auction, like James Shields or Mitch Moreland.
For the defending points and league champion, well, what was the point of this? Castellanos is, like, the third best 3B on this roster? Maybe second best, since the new humidor in Arizona is guaranteed to turn Rake Lamb back into plain old Jake Lamb. At any rate, CAP has no real need for Castellanos and should’ve just saved the prospects for in-season, at which point they could be flipped to a tanker for an obvious need. Now that the payout structure has been changed unilaterally to reward the teams with the best farm systems (forgot to tell you guys this, sorry, telling you here and now, thanks!), trading off prospects seems especially odd.
Blake Rutherford is just whatever. He could be awesome (yay!), could be the next AJ Reed (sad!), or could just be the same guy as Yordan Alvarez (yawn!). He’s on some lists. He’s not on other lists. Lists are important and I am sure that CAP hopes one day, Rutherford is on them all. Again, this guy is a prospect, so I, Jordan, have never heard of him.
The strange part of this trade is the inclusion of $44 Addison Russell. He’s basically the same guy as Galvis — not super efficient but plays every day; reliable; boring — but costs $39 more. Why not just keep Galvis, CAP? Even with the $9, Russell is too expensive. Sure, Russell has some upside, but he’s just such a risky guy to go out and acquire and then keep. So weird.
Final thought: HLR is getting the most cost controlled players, therefore HLR wins the trade. Freddy Galvis is interesting. Addison Russell is expensive. Castellanos has a funny name. I am Jordan and I approve this trade review.
We Talk Fantasy Sports’ thoughts: Here is how this trade would look if it were a graph: