Victory Speech

Speech Speech Speech!!

Ok fine. Indulge me!

It feels great to join the Dynasty Grinders Championship club. But a championship team doesn’t just happen. Like it takes a community to raise a child, you all played a role in helping Long Ball succeed and
some thanks are in order.

First off, the players. I would be ungrateful if I didn’t thank Triston Mckenzie. He wasn’t doing so hot, sent to the minors midseason, he finally put it all together down the stretch averaging 57 points per start
over his last 5 starts, to him goes the playoff MVP.

Next up the unsung hero award goes to Ranger Suarez. Ranger was a prospect on my team for a few years and then he found his way onto the waiver wire, well the prodigal son returned home just in time, picked
up randomly as a reliever he was thrust into the rotation just when my team needed it with multiple starters on the DL and he averaged 39 points per start over his last 5 starts. Better to be lucky than good.


Finally props to the year long constants for this team. Robbie Ray on the mound who was the lead point produer and Juan Soto who was just a few points shy of Ray.

But like I said this isn’t all about LongBall to LF. This is about you guys. You Complete me. You had me at “Is it baseball season yet”.


Marshall Law….Thanks for stepping in and running the league and doing a damn good job when our former leader abandoned us. Also a thank you for choking the last week of the season to give me that first round bye. You inherited a fringy team and have turned it into a playoff mainstay.


Hustle Loyalty Respect….Thanks for all the help in making the league run its appreciated. But more thanks for being that team that everyone enjoys beating just a tad more than anyone else, and for letting me beat you twice this year. Double fun. Hell of a year for you and hell of a roster, lots of decisions coming for you.

Beach Bum….Thanks for bringing the class level of the league up a notch. Oh and for graciously letting me, be the one to beat Hustle in the playoffs this year…true restraint on your part.

Who is Your Haddy….Thanks for being a grinder. Missed the playoffs in our last full year (2019) I believe, but yet you retool adding veterans in offseason. Best player hits DL (Trout) but you keep grinding and adding to compete and get paid playoff money. We need teams like you. Thanks, better luck next year.


Pine Mountain Podstars….Thanks new guy, for running your team and competing…you pitching was getting hot near the end and had me scared. And for keeping that random channel on slack going.


TBD…..Thanks for Cedric Mullins and his 1050 fantasy points so far. And thank you for going all in on pitchers who just couldn’t stay healthy. Oh and Ketel Marte he was useful. Another great competitor I appreciate you two. Need lady luck next year.


Dozier Huge Boobs….Thanks for joining our league, participating and keeping us going. Thanks for Lance Lynn he was just as you described a healthy horse who worked his tail off. Mclanahan and Peguero
both took steps forward so you can feel good about a solid trade each way.


Senior Squids….Thanks for being an original grinder and sticking with it despite some crumby luck here and there cough(Forest Whitley). Continuity is key in a league so thanks for the Loyalty. Would also be ungrateful if i didn’t thank you for not taking my late season offer of Mullins and Bogaerts + prospects for Bassitt and Springer. You knew Springer was damaged goods and unloaded him on Hustle…and probably sensed Bassitt would be injured shortly….true friend. 


H-Town Trash …Thanks for livening up the slack channel, its part of what makes the league great. I thought your team had as much momentum as any in the 2nd half so thanks for competing. I see good things a head for you


EastBound and Dowd…..No luck for you this year…but thanks for also bringing some class to the league. Beach Bum lite in my mind. Thanks for trading star players at the deadline and getting mlb players back,
not settling for prospects years away. But I really have to thank you for not dealing me Cody Bellinger in the offseason, I don’t know if I win this year without your help…I can’t remember our wager but it may have been me trying to tell you Bogaerts had a good chance of out producing Bellinger who was coming off shoulder surgery. Do you remember?


Brew Crew….. Thanks for Robbie Ray. Yes you were just a middle man taking Hustle’s unwanted SP and peddling him to me for an Urbina, but you deserve appreciation, so THANK YOU. Also your upsetting Marshall Law in seasons final week of season was huge, thanks for competing to the end. I
don’t win without you.


We Talk Fantasy Sports ….Thanks again for your loyalty to the league. Nice to see people who will stick with something. I’d say thanks for Stripling but I don’t know that he actually helped me that much but he gave me some innings near the end that i might not of been able to match off the wire. Witt Jr coming, Salvador Perez….you were one of the unluckier teams this year I see just a few tweaks and a little luck standing in your way of the playoffs next year

Suplex City….Thanks for joining and sticking with it despite us legacy members giving you a rough welcoming. You got the off-season rocking and put your stamp on your team. Thank you for Sonny Gray he stayed healthy all year. Thanks for giving the hard throwing future TJ arm to TBD. I see lots of pieces here as well. Keep grinding.

Organized Chaos…..Thanks for sticking with us. Never getting offended at a lame offer sent your way. As a Braves fan I promise to let Acuna finish out his career on your team. I’m just going to need him the
next 10 years…then he is yours.


Bomb Squad…Thanks for joining, I hope your still here, you haven’t called or texted in months. Thanks for rejecting that offer of Mckenzie and Rodgers and prospects for Jack Flaherty. I needed those two guys to step up and perform in the playoffs so thank you for that. May not have won without you! I may come calling again for Flaherty.

Trade Review – Hustle Loyalty Respect and Eastbound and Dowd – Terry O’Neill edition

(Terry O’Neill pictured right)

 

Trade Review

 

To Hustle Loyalty Respect:

Giancarlo Stanton ($86 31 y.o. 5.83 ppg)

 

To Eastbound and Dowd:

Tyler O’Neill ($0 cc 26 y.o. 5.77 ppg)

$15 auction budget

 

TL;DR – HLR picks up an expensive and maybe declining outfield/util slot depth hoping for a hot streak while EAD picks up a solid and cheap guy looking at an above-average upside

This trade probably doesn’t happen if Ohtani is on the board earlier in the day.  This trade happened early on in the deals, and it made sense at the time.  EAD likely wasn’t keeping Stanton, and he made that clear when he referenced Stanton as being priced to move.  HLR hopped on the opportunity and grabbed Stanton for a guy I’d be okay with moving on from for the chance to win a title. After getting Stanton, HLR popped Ohtani late in the day and moved Stanton down his depth chart.

Let’s look at the HLR side. Full disclosure, I was in on Stanton, but my offer was well below the deal EAD accepted ( I offered two 2023 4ths and Jack Suwinski). Stanton probably would have been a pretty regular outfielder or utility slot guy for HLR before the Ohtani trade, and I think he will still slot in at the back end of HLR’s starting squad.  Stanton is having a down year from what he has accomplished in the past, but he is still above average and certainly capable of carrying a team if he gets hot. In looking at Stanton for trade talks, I was concerned by a few of his sliding metrics.  He is walking less than he has in his prime and the power output is down despite the exit velo data being about the same when he does make contact.  He was injured for almost all of 2019 and some of short 2020 season. That led me to devaluing him in terms of longevity as I didn’t see him as a keeper. I don’t think HLR does either. That said, I am always interested in grabbing a guy with the capability to put up 100+ in a week for a playoff run. With Stanton hitting the ball as hard as he ever has, he still has plenty in the tank. Any of the contenders could have done worse than adding Stanton. He has the same upside capability as Springer does for the final portion of the season, and I think the cost he paid to do it was fine.

As to the EAD side, Tyler O’Neill is currently an above average player who has a $0 salary under our cost-controlled system.  I’ve never been a fan of his, and I was surprised to see just how well he was doing.  I had seen his point totals, but I hadn’t looked under the hood. Scouting his stats, he his walking less, striking out more, and making as much or more hard contact as he ever has.  The massive jump in production has come from not only the career-high batting average but also the career high OPS. I don’t know enough about how xwOBA is calculated to figure out if the delta between O’Neill’s wOBA and xwOBA is meaningful, but his wOBA is .365 (25 pts higher than his 2018 high) and xwOBA is .399.  What does all this mean? I think, again based on stat-scouting, O’Neill has gotten more aggressive and is doing damage as a result. He is coming into his power-peak, so I have reason to believe his production this year is sustainable.  I’m one of those people who believe once a player has demonstrated a skill they own it, and I think O’Neill has had enough of a sample size this year to say he owns the profile he has demonstrated.  Sure, pitchers could change their approaches against him after this year’s data, but I think there has been enough opportunity for that this year that expecting 5.5-6 ppg going forward is a reasonable expectation for O’Neill, which makes him a value at his cost-controlled price.  I think this season is pretty close to his ceiling, so I wouldn’t hope for more as his owner.  I think there is a solid chance that O’Neill’s production regresses slightly after season, but, again, I’ve always been an O’Neill discounter. The best part about the EAD return is that O’Neill is not a prospect.  He has proven his MLB worth, and for a guy he was already moving on from, the return is just fine.  Side note, I thought O’Neill was clearly on roids. The swollen body and chubby cheeks were classic stereotypical body, but I was referred to his father’s body. His dad was a body builder, so the body makes more sense, but the fact that O’Neill wears his baseball pants as tight as yoga pants is still off-putting.  In any event, he’s a fine baseball player that I’d take over almost every prospect or pick surely offered for Stanton.

Haddy

 

 

 

Trade Review – Hustle Loyalty Respect and Senior Squids

To HLR:

George Springer ($70 31 y.o. 7.8 ppg)

Carlos Rodon ($15 28 y.o. 40.1 ppg)

 

To Senior Squids:

Oswald Peraza – prospect

Triston Casas – prospect

Marco Luciano – prospect

2022 WYH #1

2023 HLR #1

2023 PMP #2

 

TL;DR – Squids gets some really good prospects plus some picks while Hustle two of the current best players in the league.

What a way to start off the day!  I was instantly curious when I saw the notification come up… I was at a barbecue and had told Squids I was coming with an offer for Springer and Bassitt.  After seeing the offer, I didn’t feel too bad.  I was not coming close to the bid for what Hustle gave Squids.  Even more, I don’t think Hustle overpaid in the least.

Let’s look at Hustle’s acquisitions, which are substantial.  George Springer missed three months early this year, but he has more than made up for it with a career year since he got back. I would have kept him if I got him, and I know Squids was planning on keeping him, too.  Unless he got blown away with an offer, which he did. I was concerned about Springer after his off-2020, but he has gotten comfortable in Toronto quickly. He’s a top 4 hitter by game rate for those healthy, and he’ll likely be top 5 the rest of the way assuming health.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up 300 points for Hustle the rest of the way (including playoffs). Carlos Rodon hasn’t been bad himself.  I was way out on Rodon coming into the season, and I felt great at the draft when Rodon went for $15 two picks after I spend $15 on Kwang Hyun Kim.  I saw no upside in Rodon after six previous years of mediocrity.  Boy was I wrong.  What I didn’t know at the time was that Rodon was going to add over 2.5 mph to his fastball this year. He added the velo and decide he was going to throw it 5% more than ever before.  He bumped his whiffs nearly 5% this year, also.  He is just a different guy, and the results have followed.  He is nearly a top 5 pitcher by ppg (6th after considering the guys out or likely out for the balance of the fantasy season). He has a good shot at putting up 300 points through the end of the playoffs himself. He is all around incredible value at $15 – good on Squids for the acquisition at the draft and good on Hustle for having the capital to pay for his high value.  Here’s to hoping the velo gains hold. All told, Hustle likely obtained more than 100 pts over replacement for the rest of the season between the two players, and he can look forward to the same in the playoffs.  Those are the type of numbers that make a difference in the playoffs.

Squids received a lot in this trade.  All three prospects are easy top-100 fantasy prospects with Luciano headlining the return with Casas not far behind.  There’s not a lot I can say about Marco Luciano that you all don’t already know.  His approach, bat-to-ball, and power skills have all been on display despite only being 19 y.o.  He was just promoted to High-A last week, and Squids can look forward to him likely holding down 3B for a decade starting in 2023.  Triston Casas is another very highly ranked hitting prospect.  He’s at AA this year, and he had some time off for the Olympics. His approach and bat-to-ball skills have been on display at AA, but the power numbers have been lacking a little.  I’m not worried about the power eventually showing up, as he is a little young for AA as it is.  Owald Peraza was a guy I coveted in the minors draft last year, and I told Hustle that when he beat me to the punch on drafting Peraza. I thought he was unfairly pinned with a no-power tag and some of that power has been on display this year. He was quickly promoted from High-A to AA in June, and he has mostly held his own as a guy who is young for the level. The sample of 232 PAs from AA shows a bigger K-BB% than I’d like to see in a guy without above average power, but he has hit for a high average that isn’t completely lacking in pop. The draft picks will all likely be between 10-26 in their respective years which means Squids will have some good opportunities to grab impact guys. I think all three players acquired by Squids will have average or above big league production, making his acquisition substantial.

I think both teams did a lot of good for themselves with this deal.

Haddy

 

 

 

Prelude to trade deadline reviews

What a day of trading! We’ll be rolling out trade reviews over the next week or two based on the quantity and quality of deals completed. In order to digest the deals and write reviews, I felt it was best to contextualize how these moves affected each team. To do that, I did some prep work and decided I should just share it with you all. The team summaries below contain the following: 1) the moves each team made on trade deadline day only (have to arbitrarily cut it off somewhere), 2) each teams’ estimated current MLB salary (which includes players on IL), and 3) each teams’ players on contracts of $50+.

This was by far the biggest trade deadline in the league’s six-year history. When I say big, I mean in terms of weight of players moved. There sure was a lot of firepower moved. With it, some big contracts also moved. It will be interesting to see how these high-dollar players affect the balance of the season and the playoffs. I’m even more intrigued by how the offseason will play out. There are four teams, and arguably more, that are now banking on being able to move big player salaries in the offseason. The looming question is whether there are enough teams with 1) prospect and pick capital, 2) budget room, and 3) interest in the players for all these high-dollar players to get moved. At some point, the cost sought by the teams selling them will get them moved. Will it be 80 cents on the dollar? 70? 50? 30? These big acquisitions will certainly play a part in getting somebody a championship, but, for the playoff losers, the double dose of missing the championship and having to take a big loss on what they spent to get players for the championship run will be tough medicine to swallow.

An additional aspect to the looming dump of high-value players in the offseason is, depending on the market, what volume of these players end up in the auction. It will be a fun offseason to see how things play out. That’s enough of burying the lede… we had some huge moves through multiple deals by several teams. Here’s how the day played out and ended:

Beach Bum
No moves made on deadline day
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $521
Players $50 or greater: Gerrit Cole ($88), Christian Yelich ($65), Starling Marte ($53), and Yu Darvish ($51)

Brew Crew
Gave up: Shohei Ohtani
Got: Adolis Garcia, Cole Winn (p), Jasson Dominguez (p), Luis Campusano (p), Bobby Miller (p), Ronny Mauricio (p), 2022 PMP #1, 2022 SS #2
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $521
Players $50 or greater: Gerrit Cole ($88), Christian Yelich ($65), Starling Marte ($53), and Yu Darvish ($51)

Bomb Squad
No moves made on deadline day
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $499
Players $50 or greater: Anthony Rizzo ($95), Francisco Lindor ($72), and Marcus Stroman ($57)

Dozier Huge Boobs
Gave up: JD Martinez, Yusei Kikuchi, Manny Machado, Alex Wood, and $30
Got: Reid Detmers, Justin Foscue (p), DL Hall (p), Nick Pratto (p), Brenton Doyle (p), Kyren Paris (p), Noah Song (p), 2022 EAD #3, and 2022 DHB #4
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $394
Players $50 or greater: Isaiah Kiner-Falefa ($93)

Eastbound and Dowd
Gave up: Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, and $15
Got: Tyler Glasnow, Anthony Rendon, Mike Soroka, Tyler O’Neill, and $15
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $482
Players $50 or greater: Stephen Strasburg ($75) and Anthony Rendon ($57)

Hustle Loyalty Respect
Gave up: Tyler O’Neill, Adolis Garcia, Oswald Peraza (p), Triston Casas (p), Marco Luciano (p), Cole Winn (p), Jasson Dominguez (p), Luis Campusano (p), Bobby Miller (p), Ronny Mauricio (p), 2022 WYH #1, 2022 PMP #1, 2022 SS #2, 2023 HLR #1, 2023 PMP #2, and $15
Got: George Springer, Carlos Rodon, Giancarlo Stanton, and Shohei Ohtani
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $855
Players $50 or greater: Clayton Kershaw ($125), Shohei Ohtani ($102), Max Scherzer ($100), Giancarlo Stanton ($86), Freddie Freeman ($74), and George Springer ($70)

H-Town Trash Can Punch
Gave up: Brandon Belt, Patrick Sandoval, and $10
Got: Peyton Battenfield (p), Ed Howard (p), Asa Lacy (p), and 2022 PMP #5
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $210
Players $50 or greater: none

Long Ball to LF
No moves made on deadline day
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $584
Players $50 or greater: Paul Goldschmidt ($81), Xander Bogaerts ($76), and Zack Greinke ($67)

Marshall Law
Gave up: Spencer Turnbull, Gunnar Henderson (p), 2023 ML #2, and 2023 ML #4
Got: Jesus Aguilar and Corey Seager
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $705
Players $50 or greater: Corey Seager ($120), Mookie Betts ($86), and Jose Altuve ($75)

Organized Chaos
No moves made on deadline day
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $196
Players $50 or greater: none

Pine Mountain Podstars
No moves made on deadline day
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $570
Players $50 or greater: Carlos Correa ($103), Chris Sale ($86), and Nolan Arenado ($83)

Suplex City
Gave up: Jesus Aguilar, Corey Seager, Noah Song (p), and 2022 DHB #4
Got: Spencer Turnbull, Alex Wood, Gunnar Henderson (p), 2023 ML #2, and 2023 ML #4
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $267
Players $50 or greater: Noah Syndergaard ($104)

Senior Squids
Gave up: George Springer and Carlos Rodon
Got: Oswald Peraza, Triston Casas, Marco Luciano, 2022 WYH #1, 2023 HLR #1, and 2023 PMP #2
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $478
Players $50 or greater: none

TBD
Gave up: Tyler Glasnow, Anthony Rendon, Mike Soroka, Peyton Battenfield (p), Ed Howard (p), Asa Lacy (p), Justin Foscue (p), DL Hall (p), Nick Pratto (p), Brenton Doyle (p), Kyren Paris (p), 2022 EAD #3, and 2022 PMP #5
Got: Bryce Harper, Brandon Belt, Patrick Sandoval, Yusei Kikuchi, Manny Machado, and $35
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $706
Players $50 or greater: Bryce Harper ($117), Manny Machado ($88), Kris Bryant ($84), Jacob DeGrom ($81), and Trea Turner ($56)

We Talk Fantasy Sports
No moves made on deadline day
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $473
Players $50 or greater: Charlie Blackmon ($69) and Madison Bumgarner ($68)

Who’s your Haddy?
Gave up: Reid Detmers
Got: JD Martinez and $20
Estimated current MLB cap hit: $677
Players $50 or greater: Mike Trout ($112), Jose Abreu ($72), and JD Martinez ($67)

Haddy

Trade Review – Marshall Law & Suplex City

To ML:

Carlos Carrasco ($44 34 y.o. 20 ppg)

 

To Suplex City:

Alejandro Pie – prospect

Gage Workman – prospect

Kyle Harrison – prospect

 

TL;DR – ML hopes for a healthy Carrasco while SC gets a couple high-upside lotto tickets.

I think this was a pretty balanced trade that made a lot of sense for both sides.

Marshall Law took on some moderate salary hoping for the good Carrasco to show up the rest of the way.  When Carrasco has been healthy, he’s mostly been good.  Aside from the weird 2019 season for him, he has either been healthy enough to show up every 5th day and perform like a top 25-30 pitcher or he has been hurt and not performed at all.  That kind of upside is hard to grab for the price Marshall paid at this time of the year.  Will Carrasco be 2019 bad or 2020 good?  We’ll see.  The definite win for Carrasco is that he isn’t associated with a team that calls themselves the Guardians.

Suplex City moved a player that likely won’t help him make his next championship run for a couple high-upside guys in Pie and Harrison. This is the type of move that makes complete sense when Suplex City bought Carrasco at auction.  Suplex City committed to the rebuild last offseason, and he executed that strategy at auction hoping for a chance to trade Carrasco for more pieces to back the rebuild. Ultimately, Carrasco didn’t pitch until the end of July. He still returned in time to net Suplex a couple guys to dream on.  My favorite part of Suplex’s return is Kyle Harrison, an atypical prep prospect who was more refined than others his age and then added velo late.  His K numbers this year reflect some big upside, but the BB numbers show a need to learn to harness the new velo.  Harrison has the ingredients to be a star with at least a couple years of development to endure before he puts any points on the board for Suplex City. Also dreamy is the body of 19 y.o. Alejandro Pie (yep, I said it).  I’ve never actually seen his body, but the complex level reports consist of a guy with a frame to add on to and lots of power to come with that frame projection. He’s supposedly athletic enough to stick at short and fast enough to play center field, so he has some defensive spectrum leeway too.  If you’re going to bet on a 19 year old that is playing baseball in the U.S. for the first time, you can do worse.  The last piece of Suplex’s return is Gage Workman.  I won’t dwell here other than to say the fears about his approach have come to fruition since his promotion to high A after beating up low A as an old-for-the-level guy.  Approaches can change, but Workman has lots of work to do, man.

Haddy (Who’s Your Haddy?)

Trade Review – Hustle Loyalty Respect & Eastbound and Dowd

To HLR:

Max Scherzer ($100 37 y.o. 37.2 ppg)

Mike Moustakas ($25 32 y.o. 4.7 ppg)

 

To Eastbound and Dowd:

Stephen Strasburg ($75 33 y.o. 17.9 ppg)

Patrick Corbin ($26 32 y.o. 19.45 ppg)

Brennen Davis – prospect

Edward Cabrera – prospect

Ezequiel Duran – prospect

2022 #1 from HLR – projecting for 13-16 overall

2022 #2 from HLR – projecting for 29-32 overall

 

TL;DR – HLR gets a top-10 pitcher for Brennen Davis

Hooray for the trade deadline in DG heating up!  Hopefully we end with a flurry by Friday similar to the MLB deadline this year.  If you were looking for a trade that has it all, we almost got it here.  Old stars, injured stars, high-end prospects, meh prospects, and picks for yet-unknown prospects.  For me, this trade boils down to Max Scherzer for Brennen Davis.

Let’s look at the HLR side. He gets the 10th or so best starter left standing by ppg (Glasnow is toast, deGrom/Bauer/Kershaw are likely toast with him, and Bieber is maybe back in August), and a guy who has shown up every 5th day since 2009 with the exception of only 27 starts in 2019.  Seriously, Scherzer is an ironman, even despite some back issues he had a couple years ago that I thought signaled his decline (wrong again, Aaron).  Scherzer represents a much-needed replacement for Kershaw on HLR’s squad, particularly with HLR’s overall points lead gap closing. Max is a stud and worth every penny of his $100 salary.  HLR’s roster construction has allowed him to be able to take Max on without concern of having to sell Kershaw in the offseason. HLR likely gets value from Scherzer the next couple years as Scherzer ages out of baseball.  Moustakas is a non-factor for me – HLR likely cuts him in the offseason and hopes for lightning in a bottle when Moustakas comes back from a heel injury that cost him nearly three months.  It’s been a couple years since Moustakas has been above fantasy replacement level, but he’ll always have that 6 ppg year in Milwaukee.

As for the E&D side, he gets Davis with an expensive lotto ticket, a less expensive lotto ticket, and a bunch of cheap ones.  Brennen Davis is hopefully as awesome as his AA stats from this year.  He destroyed High-A pitching this year in a short stint before continuing the hitting clinic at AA.  His power has showed out along with an elevated walk rate – his K-rate has also spiked but has been more than offset by the damage he is doing.  He’s only in AA, but his 2021 updated midseason rankings of anywhere from 9-17 on the outlets I’ve seen reflect the strength of the gains he has made.  He still has to prove he can do it with the big boys, but he appears likely to have a high floor to go along with his high ceiling.  Unfortunately for E&D, my excitement at his return ends here.  Strasburg underwent thoracic outlet surgery, something I thought was a death sentence for pitchers.  Turns out there is a recent study (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33472488/) with a small sample size (27) that says 74% of pitchers undergoing the procedure return to MLB performance with a range of 105-638 days to return. The study tried to quantify performance upon return and found similar returns of fastball velo and control but lesser returns in ERA performance (3.66 ERA pre-surgery to 4.50 ERA post-surgery). Even with all the issues ERA represents, I think the nearly-one run delta between pre- and post-surgery tells us what we need to know about effectiveness.  I don’t think E&D acquires Strasburg if he doesn’t plan on keeping him, but the large salaries of $117 invested in Harper and $86 in Stanton add up to a salary cap crunch that will require some ingenuity to solve, particularly so considering the significant pitching needs E&D has to fill.  Corbin has been bitten by HR issues badly this year.  Health and velo remain on his side, but his pitch effectiveness has significantly deteriorated from his stellar 2018 and 2019 seasons. His fastball effectiveness in particular has significantly declined this year despite gaining velo, which is interesting. Despite the bad results with the fastball, he is throwing it more than ever before so maybe he knows something we don’t.  Either way, he has been bad but is probably another keeper at $26 for a pitching starved E&D.  Here’s to hoping for a bounceback or a move to Tampa so they can fix him. Edward Cabrera is a sexy name who made big gains over the pandemic year and rose on lots of lists.  Fangraphs says his secondary pitches made big jumps which led to the lessening of the dreaded reliever risk.  He moved up to AAA in the middle of July after a solid 26 innings at AA and immediately stopped throwing strikes, which is probably fixable.  That said, I don’t like the fact that he has not pitched over 100 innings in a season despite 6 years of minor league baseball due to various injuries that have popped up.  Sure, Miami is a pitching development haven, but even they can’t put Humpty back together again. MiLB is littered with the bodies of electric arms who couldn’t stay on the mound. Duran is a 100-150 ranked guy who has been comped to Dan Uggla. Uggla was not a fantasy star in this format, and he exceeded replacement level twice in his career.  The two picks are nice to have but hard to evaluate who may be out there in the 13-16 ranges and 29-32 ranges of the draft. Ultimately, E&D is going to love running Davis out there everyday for six years as a cost-controlled (hopefully) stud. Will it be in time to contribute to his currently assembled stars of Harper, Stanton, Cruz, Story, and more?  I guess we’ll see.

Haddy (Who’s Your Haddy?)

Trade: No Bieber for these Boobs

So Shane Bieber had himself a 2020. 12 Starts with a .86 whip, 1.63 ERA and 122K’s in 77 IP. Sure he benefited a little from the schedule. Officially the 2nd most famous Bieber now.  You can’t sell any higher, and for a rebuilding team might as well sell now as it only takes one ligament to tear for his value to drop down to nothing. I really like what Boobs did here, he took his time, let it be known that he was on the block and then he played at least 3 contending teams offers against each other and took the one he liked best.  Long ball sent in offers, Hustle Loyalty  did, and the winner TBD. Anybody else throw their hat into the ring? If you didn’t make an offer for the CY young pitcher your either rebuilding, too busy and important to check in regularly, or just not a true grinder.

At first glance I didn’t think much of the offer to be honest. I hadn’t been looking at the new prospect rankings, I thought of Riley Greene as a high ceiling young kid who is far away, Logan Gilbert i knew as a high pick and high ceiling guy who wasn’t talked about quite as highly as the Nate Pearson’s of the prospect world. Brandon Marsh was the most surprising to see near the top 50.  I’m not a huge fan based on the fact he is a 23 yr old white outfielder. Is that a good reason? Anyways i have walked back from the ledge and realized this return is a lot more solid than my first thought. In my world I really want a young mlb piece back with some prospects. If I am trading Bieber i preferably want a young MLB proven piece and some high ceiling prospects. Keep your Brandon Marsh and give me a Trent Grisham or Lourdes Gurriel.  Riley Greene is a little too risky for my taste as the prized acquisition, but the package as a whole isn’t bad and its nice to know it wasn’t the only offer out there.

Lets take a closer look at the 3 prospects. Brandon Marsh is near mlb ready and coming off a solid 2019 as a 21 year old in AA with a .300/.383/.428 and a 47BB/92K ratio. The prior year, in the California league as a 20 year old, he struggled a bit for the first time.  I was surprised to see him ranked 53rd on MLB’s top 100. He seems like a big leaguer but in fantasy he isn’t super exciting to me.  The other two prospects are ranked higher and bring more fantasy excitement in my mind. Riley Greene’s ranking came in at 21 which also took me by surprise slightly. 2019 saw him RAKING in the GCL, hold his own against an older NYPL and then look his age in the MWL with a .622 OPS over 96 AB’s. But 3 levels as an 18 year old shows you what the Tigers think of their young prospect. So the ranking is aggressive and the scouting reports are probably glowing the ceiling is high. With the lost development year its hard to predict the ETA of players like him, but I admit he may be closer than you would think. Logan Gilbert ranked in at 33 and has a high velocity fastball and high ceiling and is getting close to mlb ready.  So the 21,33,53 prospects and a couple high picks. Not too shabby to re-stock the cupboards.

 

There was another package offered for Bieber that was shown to me from the Boob’s which I preferred and kind of had me wave the white flag and give up my pursuit as i did not want to give up more talent than was on the table. But the Boob’s preferred this one and to each his own.

Anyways congrats to Dozier’s for a well executed trade done with patience and fairness where multiple teams had opportunity to send in offers.

And Congrats to the TBD!  Bieber and Degrom make quite the front of the rotation. This offseason TBD has successfully deployed his prospect capital to acquire Bieber, Glasnow. Trea Turner, Rendon, Lourdes Gurriel, Jeff Mcneil, and Max Kepler. Did I miss anyone. No use waiting 3 years to get value out of a prospect when they can turn your team around now. Sure takes the risk out of the asset.

Let’s get ready to Auction

Trade: Bomb Squad I Pine Mountain Podstars

Ozzie Albies | Atlanta braves baseball, Atlanta braves, Braves

Bomb Squad

gets Ozzie Albies $13

Pine Mountain

gets Sandy Alcantara $7
Levi Kelly

Hey look its a trade that i have no strong feelings over. Must mean its fairly even.

If I am choosing here I would personally rather have Albies as i feel like 2B is thin and he is a potential top 5 player at the position. Still only 23 years old he should just be starting his prime. You should be set at 2B for the next 5-7 years. In 2019 he had the 2nd most fantasy points among 2B in our league. 2020 he didn’t have as many at bats as others, but on a points/game basis was down around 12th among 2B. Its nice that both teams agreed he has a little more value than Alcantara and a prospect went along the other way

Alcantara only made 7 starts in 2020 and averaged just more then Carlos Carrasco and Tyler Glasnow in points/start. In 2019 he made 32 starts at 28ppg, which is a lot more average than you would want in giving up Albies. If he continues to take a step forward he could enter the upper echelon of pitchers. His FIP went down in 2020 from 4.55 to 3.71. Still only 25 there is reason for optimism here.  But personally i think the risk is higher that Alcantara ends up being average than Albies.


Levi Kelly was ranked 9th best prospect in AZ system has some nice numbers from the Midwest league his slider looks like a plus pitch, like a lot of young pitchers he seems to need to refine a 3rd pitch to take the next step. A nice second piece and something you don’t lose sleep on sending the other way to make the trade happen.

Overall Bomb Squad has a roster that looks to be taking shape, just needs a few more Innings somewhere having dealt Alcantara to shore up his infield.
Pine Mountain is putting some trust in Profar potentially with this deal, he adds another starter to an already solid rotation, and his lineup is looking solid. Will he roll with Profar or keep making moves?

Dynasty Grinders Deep Dive Minor League Draft / Waiver Wire Pickups

Amazon.com: 2016 Bowman International Ink #II-FT Fernando Tatis Jr. White Sox MLB Baseball Card NM-MT: Collectibles & Fine Art

 

 

I thought I would do a deep dive into Dynasty Grinders Minor League Draft for our new friends that have joined the league this year. The minor league draft can be a crap shoot, especially the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds. I’m not a big fan in obtaining later round picks in the draft. Usually they are just thrown ins to make the trade look better, you will see with the deep dive. 

 

The main reason TBD and HLR can acquire players like Glasnow and Castillo is because they are professional prospectors. I do think Glasnow and Castillo trades were a little lite going the other way considering the ages and salaries of both player.  I will guarantee you that TBD and HLR will restock quickly but it will get harder if everyone Grinds as hard as they do. The league will be going to 40 prospects this year, that’s 640 prospects. In 2023 the league will reach 50 prospects, that’s 800 players, that’s a lot of prospects and probably a lot of streaming of prospects.  

 

I used the Senior Squids Prospect Spreadsheet as my reference, the spreadsheet probably not as good as Hustle Media but you try to learn from the best, right? Dynasty Grinders has been around since 2016. The first year we drafted ten prospects each, good information can be gleaned  from the draft but not in the later rounds because we were  only drafting 160 players. I concentrated 2017 and 2018 drafts where the draft pooled increased 240 and 320 players respectively.  

 

A couple items: MLB/DM (DM = difference makers, Tatis types) category are drafted players that have made their MLB debut, don’t be fool with the category, just because the player fulfilled their dream making the majors doesn’t mean that are valuable fantasy assets. Can you say Daniel Gosset? 

 

Finally, the prospect ranking 1-10, 11-50, 51-100, 101-200,  200 and up.  I also went to the Dynasty Grinders Fantrax pages and to see who was picked up  off the waiver wire during the last four years. For the new owners this is where you need to grind and fine that hidden jewel and as you will see there were some crazy good players that were never drafted and plucked off the waiver wire.  

 

2016 Draft

Busts: 

1-7  Lewis Brinson, didn’t he just get traded for the 10th time last week? 

1-11 AJ Reed

2-6  Jose De Leon, yea I traded for him. 

 

Bam: 

1-1 Yoan Moncada 

1-4 Tyler Glasnow

1-13 Blake Snell

 

Wow, I drafted him that late, okay then. 

5.3 Jack Flaherty 

8.1 Matt Chapman

9.5 Walker Buehler, now this is a crazy one, he was drafted in 2016 and dropped and redrafted in the second round in 2017. Great grinding by TBD. 

12.3 Sandy Alcantra, yea I traded for him and  traded him away too. Yea another stupid trade. 

Wow Waiver Wire Pickups

Hunter Dozier, Royals, he was picked up and dropped a few times, including me. 

Juan Soto, Nationals, nice job Long Ball

Max Muncy Dodgers, first Dusty and he dropped him and of course HLR picked him up. HLR is huge Dodger fan. If you don’t know the fantasy owners favorite teams your missing out. I’m a sucker for the Mariners and I will pay a high price for JRod. 

Cristian Pache, Braves, another Longball pickup

Mitch Keller, Pirates, another TBD pickup

 

2017 Draft

Busts: 

Honestly the whole 1st rounds sucked!

1-1 Kevin Maitan, yea #1 player, I believe we was the best player on the board before the draft but I think he got his money and got fat and lazy. Most prospect web sites don’t have him ranked anymore. Hey, Boobs you have a 1st overall pick on your team. 

1-3 Cory Ray

1-4 Blake Rutherford

1-5 Mickey Moniak

1-6 Delvin Perez

1-7 Jason Groom

I could go on……. 

Bam: 

2-4 Walker Buehler, nice pick up TBD

2-11 Luis Castillo

3-6 Fernando Tatis,  HLR unfortunately traded him for a bag of balls. 

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then. 

4-1 Jesus Luzardo

5-16 Dinelson Lamet, HLR, yep the last player taken and yea he traded him too. 

Wow Waiver Wire Pickups

Shane Bieber, Indians, yep you read that right, the best pitcher in the league was never drafted. What does that tell the new owners? You need to grind. 

Ronald Acuna, Braves, 8.86 ppg.  Long Ball  hits the jackpot again, Acuna and Soto are the corner stone of his team. 

 

MLB/DM 1-10 11-50 51-100 101-200 200 and Up
2017 1 Round 10/0 0 0 0 0 6
2 Round 7/2 1 1 1 0 6
3 Round 9/1 1 1 0 0 5
4 Round 8/1 0 0 0 0 7
5 Round 6 0 0 0 0 10

 

  • Difference Makers: Buehler, Castillo, Luzardo and Tatis. 

 

2018 Draft

It’s probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows  but…….

Busts: 

1-7 Brendan McKay, Rays, shoulder surgery in Aug 2020, drafting pitching is always risky. 

1-8 Kyle Wright, Braves, yep that was me, 

1-11 Alex Faedo Tigers, another pitcher with arm issues too

Bam: 

1.1 Luis Robert, White Sox, Roberts made it to the  show pretty quick

2.9 Wander Franco, 1# prospect in the league, however he biceps and shoulder issues, at least he’s not a pitcher. 

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.

5-2 Vidal Brujan, Rays, Top 50 prospect

5-10 Sean Murphy, A’s, made it to the show and is a top ten catcher, I believe catchers are the hardest position to fill because they usually can’t hit. 

3-13 Will Smith, another productive catcher and he might be the best catcher in 2021

Waiver Wire Pickups

Bobby Dalbac impressive first year with 7.11 PPG, dropped by Longball, TBD picked him up and traded him to Organized Chaos.  

Gavin Lux top 50 prospect who made his debut in 2020

Cavin Biggo with a 6.24 PPG  and of course I had him on my team at one time. 

Spencer Howard, Top 50 prospect, yep I finally got a good waiver pick up. 

 

MLB/DM 1-10 11-50 51-100 101-200 200 and Up
2018 1 Round 7/1 1 1 1 2 4
2 Round 5 1 2 8
3 Round 7/1 1 1 7
4 Round 3 2 1 1 9
5 Round 4 1 11

 Difference Makers: Luis Robert and Will Smith

 

2019 Draft

Again probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows. 

Busts: 

1-2 Jonathen India, Reds, is TBD actually human? India’s stock has fell since being drafted as he”s dropped out of the many of the  top 200 prospects list but it is TBD and India is still young. 

1-11 Victor Victor Mesa, Marlins,  Mesa is out on most experts top 300 prospects list 

Bam: 

3-3 Noelvi Marte,  Mariners  Top 25 prospect but it’s still early

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.

5-10 Dylan Carlson Cardinals, nice pick up by the Beach Bums, top ten prospect, however struggle in the short MLB season. 

Waiver Wire Pickups

Mitch Garver, Twins, but is he for real? A 29 year old catcher with 7.2 PPG in 2019 but Ryan Jeffers might have taken his place as the starting catcher?  

Gio Urshela , Yankees, picked up by Ferns than dropped and picked by TBD and traded to Marshall Plan. Urshela scored 6 PPG in 2020. 

I didn’t find any other good pick ups except a bunch of relief pitchers claims by HLR, in 2019 HLR had 542 waiver claims which I think is a Dynasty Grinders record.  

 

Observations 

Prospects are the key to success in any dynasty league and especially in Dynasty Grinders. If you don’t grind prospects don’t expect to win a championships anytime soon.  Prospects and the waiver wire is where you need to grind. 

First round picks are huge, especially the top 5 or 6 picks. In our league 80% of the first round picks make the major leagues, second rounders 60% and third rounders 40%. I’m not fan of obtaining 4th and 5th rounders in trades, they are like candy corn and are only good for about five minutes. As you can see only a hand full of 4th and 5th rounders hit. You would be better off grinding the waiver wire.  

Remember when you obtain a first rounder from one of the top teams it’s really an early 2nd rounder and how many 2nd rounders hit, maybe 60%. There has been some good second rounders that hit like Buehler and Castillo who were just traded.  

Drafting pitchers is always a risk for two reasons, injuries and will the pitcher become a bullpen arm. Additionally drafting high school / international players are also a risk because of their age and their development (Maitan). HLR has been very successful in that department, I’m wondering if he would be willing to share his secret sauce, probably not.   

The waiver wire is where you can make up some ground but it takes a lot of grinding. Long Ball is the king by picking up Acuna and Soto.  HLR is the king of roster claims with a record of 542 claims in 2019, however make sure you watch your FAAB budget. Additionally,  watch the prospect experts in the league, sometimes they drop prospects they don’t have room for but you might. 

Finally, there is plenty of free prospects web sites to visit. A few sites have a pay wall but worth the $5 a month price.  If any of you like podcasts there are plenty out there that are both informational and entertaining.

Organized Chaos I Pine Mountan Podstars

Rookie starter Justus Sheffield continuing to impress in breakout season  with Mariners | Tacoma News Tribune

Organized Chaos

gets 

pick 8 in this years draft
2nd rounder in 2022
Jorge Mateo

Pine Mountain Podstars

gets

Touki Toussant
Alex Reyes
Justus Sheffield
Mike Yastrzemski
Lazaro Armenteros

Beer Goggles are a thing in dynasty fantasy baseball. We have all worn them at some point right? Some people just get a little carried away when trying to acquire a 1st round pick and lose their freaking mind. At the bar you may have a wing man who hasn’t had as much to drink who can warn you that the girl across the way isn’t quite the trophy  you think she is. I’m certain assman Fito has wanted to make some trades in the past where wingman Rawlings has had to pump the brakes and let sanity prevail. Truth be told I wish I had a wingman when I decided to send Jameson Taillon packing for a couple picks to save salary when he was facing TJ surgery. If anyone thinks they have the goggles on, and wants a reality check, I would be available to take a quick glance for you. Don’t  wake up next to Kathy Bates.

I guess you know where I am going with this. I love this trade for Pine Mountain Podstars. Why? Mike Yastrzemski came out of nowhere the last couple years. At 29 this past year he put up an OPS of .968. Should have a couple peak seasons ahead of him. I probably wouldn’t have given up my first round pick for him, but would have thought long and hard about it. I tend to keep mine just because I enjoy making picks, that is my favorite part of fantasy baseball, so I understand the desire to acquire them. And I believe that is why you generally always have to overpay, because people like drafting “their” guys.  Mike Y  is by far the best player in the deal, but not the sole reason why I love this deal for Podstars. He also acquired 3 quality arms that are all mlb ready at a huge discount. Justus Sheffield as recent as 2019 was the mariners #1 prospect, scouting reports are good and he is ready to contribute. Alex Reyes has been toying with people for 5 years, major hype,  major injuries. Eventually these guys tend to click…look at Urias in LA recently for a recent example. Touki Tousaant, another highly touted prospect who has lost his shine and may be headed to the bullpen, but you never know and they are good to stash and just see what happens. 

Jorge Mateo had a decent 2019 in AAA, so maybe Coach really likes him. Maybe he is the next Mike Y to figure it out in his late 20’s. 

It’s not absolutely horrible. Reyes and Toussant are guys that probably dont have a ton of trade value as they are total wildcards at this stage, but nice wildcards to have. Like I said its fairly hard to get anybody’s first round pick a few months before the draft without overpaying. And I do like this draft. But take a look at any draft and its littered with misses. Chances of getting a bonafide major leaguer at pick 8 are what 50%? getting an allstar 25%? I’d guess those numbers are too high. So when you can can trade a 1st round pick for an allstar caliber player and 3 former 1st round type talents near mlb ready, you probably should.  The statistics here would favor Pine Mountain. Coach better make these picks count. 

The other way to spin this…… Chaos traded away 2 bullpen arms, a mediocre SP prospect and a late blooming journeyman at his peak value to acquire two high picks which he will have cost controlled for years. That could be more accurate and that would likely be Chaos’s mindset. I’m just giving you a Hot take cause I know Coach Steve can handle it.