Jordan’s thoughts: It’s easy to look at the context of both deals and smash them together. In fact, Bailey does this below. I’m going in a different direction. Looking at McHugh so far, K rate back up from last year. Good. BB rate down from last year, Good. HR rate up, Unlucky? Maybe, maybe not. Seems like a decent candidate to get things going. When the strikes are up, things are likely to trend positively. So I like McHugh to reach a place where he’s valued at, a reliable guy as your 5th or 6th starter.
121, 120, 110, 121, 77. Those are the last four years wRC+ numbers for Jason Heyward ending with his current number in 2016. Heyward isn’t a transcendent hitter, but he has five seasons of being really good, bogged down by one bad first half. Now, he’s going through is second bad first half. The K rate is up and power is missing. He’s likely hurt. Since he’s still playing, probably not seriously hurt. I like his odds to finish strong enough to get that number back to career norms. Good swap for both teams, I’d rather gamble on Heyward.
I actually like Heyward to get his numbers back in line with his career norms, but I’ve always generally viewed him as a streaky, name value guy. I do like him as a buy low target.
Either way, at $50 he’s not likely keepable in 2017, if that even matters in early June, and We Talk Fantasy Sports had no real need for him in center where they’ve got Andrew McCutchen (though he could be useful in right where Michael Bourn, believe it or not, is starting). McHugh is alright. He’s struggled this year, but he projects better than league average.
Fair, uneventful deal.