Andrew’s thoughts: Jay Bruce might be a tad underrated here because he’s a bad real life player. Over the last three seasons combined, he has only accumulated 0.2 fWAR.
But he’s been a useful fantasy hitter over the last two seasons. Through June 30 last year, he had already racked up 486 points at a 6.57 per game (1.593 points per plate appearance) clip. That’s an elite rate of production for 13 weeks of a fantasy season and I feel like it is worth at least $13 by itself.
From July 1 on, he only scored 322.2 points at a 4.41/game (1.134 pts/PA) rate. That’s not particularly good, but it’s serviceable. At first glance I thought giving up $10 to acquire Bruce at $13 was just too much, but it’s actually probably about right. The Oysters had extra budget cash and can afford it, and for IL4W, I get not being enthralled with Bruce either, so adding $10 spending budget is a nice cash-out for a risky player.
I don’t think $15 2B-only Josh Harrison is a keeper, so I think mostly this was $10 and a future pick for Bruce. The 2019 first-rounder is interesting, I guess, but we have this year’s draft and next year’s draft before we even get to that draft. Like… I don’t know, Corey Ray is among the top prospects this year, right? Most scouts have his ETA at 2018. So that same type of player in the 2019 draft has a 2020 ETA, yeah? And just making it to the majors doesn’t mean you’re fantasy relevant. The #1 pick in the actual MLB draft, Mickey Moniak, has an ETA of 2020 according to Baseball Prospectus. If you draft the Moniak of the 2019 draft, then that guy’s looking at a 2022 ETA.
Point is, the 2019 pick doesn’t return value until at least a year after, and that’s if you’re super lucky and draft a college hitter or something that doesn’t need a ton of minor league time. I guess what I’m saying is if you look at that 2019 first-rounder and think “hot damn, a first round pick!” then feel free to hit me up about my 2019 pick.
Jordan’s thoughts: I think that two teams agreed to a trade here. I’m not sure that I’d pay $23 and a pick for a Jay Bruce, but I’m surprised all the time. Great deal for In Shorter Line 4 the Win. Dusty being Dusty I guess.
I would like to write another one hundred words, but then I’m certain that I would have put in more effort into this trade than the two teams making this deal. So we move on!