TBD trades away
- Marte, Noelvi (prospect)
- White, Evan (prospect)
- Kelenic, Jarred (prospect)
- 2020 Draft Pick, Round 1 (TBD)
Senior Squids trades away
- Chapman, Matt $9.03
Jordan’s thoughts: Any time you can take a top 20, possibly top 10 asset in the entire league anf turn it into a trio of Mariners prospects and a draft pick you can use to draft another, you have to do it, right?
No. No you don’t.
Let’s look at Matt Chapman. He’s clearly old at 26 and 2 months. Last year he was a 137 wRC+, .369 wOBA hitter. This year, half way through, he’s been a 137 wRC+, .372 wOBA player. He’s walking slightly more. Striking out slightly less. Hitting way more homers.
That’s a fun guy to own. An even better guy to have in the cost controlled setting of Dynasty Grinders. He’s currently the 40th highest scoring player. There’s 11 guys currently cost controlled with more points scored. Chapman IS THE GUY that you build around. He just is.
So, the return… Jarred Kelenic (last year’s 6th overall pick in our draft, a pick Squids traded to TBD for Ryan O’Hearn 🤯) lit Mariners twitter on fire early on the season by destroying Single-A ball hitting a 179 wRC+ in 50 games. He got promoted and as a 19-year-young hitter, his first 20 games in High-A has been 99 wRC+. Not awful, he’s young for the league, will probably catch up. But he’s already showing that he’s not the Juan Soto/Ronald Acuna type prospect that’s going to debut at 19 in MLB. He needs time and seasoning. The hit tools are there. He’s probably a good fantasy asset down the line.
Evan White is currently 23-years-old and has been doing alright in Double-A ball for the Mariners system. Another top 100 prospects on the FanGraphs lists and projects to be an average 1Bman that our league has come to love. He has the tools and talents to be some what of an asset in the future, but at 23 in double-A, the ceiling is just lower.
Noelvi Marte is 17-years-young and in rookie ball hitting slightly above average for the level with a 113 wRC+ in 23 games played. Scouts like his hit tools, but he’s not lighting up the charts or looking anything much more than a potential slow climbing prospect. Good to have, yet typically easy to find and acquire.
Now, based on my simple player review, you are probably gathering that this a slam dunk, what the fuck, how did TBD do this kind of deal. And if you assumed that, well you’re right.
TBD, currently at 11-2 in the league, sitting in first place, adds a cheap fantasy star for nickels on the dollar. Chapman is the best player in this deal now. Likely the best player in this deal four years from now. Possibly (probably) the best player in this deal in 2027 as a 34 year old. Even if the prospects were better, you still do this type of deal to acquire this kind of player. 100 out of 100 times.
Senior Squids is currently in 9th place, sitting at 6-7 on the path to mediocrity again. It sucks that things have not broken the right way and the motivation to retool/build for next season seems tempting. The problem is that the obvious plan is to build around guys like Matt Chapman, not give them away to save like $20 of budget and assume the risk of a prospect. If you want to trade an asset like Chapman, the return should be major league ready cost controlled players who are on the rise, PLUS this same minor league package. If you’re not getting that…
HOLD THE ASSET.
I’m sorry, the best plan here for either team is to have Matt Chapman. If you’re concerned about some fluke and having so much stock in one player and you REALLY want to diversify the asset, you have to get more than this. If more does not exist, just hold. Don’t cave into the market that you are forcing yourself into.
Have a plan. Develop the plan. Otherwise you’re on a captainless ship, swaying back and forth in the seas heading in no clear direction based on gut calls hoping to find land. Maybe you luck out. Good luck.
Return of trade reviews.
Yep, they need to happen. The league was born from it. We went soft and catered to the bullshit. If anything it gets discussion going. I’m willing to eat every single word in this post, printed out on paper (and I hate printing internet things) if the return here wins Squids or the Mariners a championship.