The Fantasy Baseball team
This trade comes down to the fact that TBD was not keeping Kikuchi at $40. Kikuchi was 25 points per start last year. Which isn’t exciting but you generally need someone like this more than you think. He was traded alongside Machado at the trade deadline for 5 prospects(Pratto, Foscue, DL Hall, Doyle, Paris, 3rd round pick) One of the factors that separated the playoff teams from the non playoff teams was they consistently got to the innings limit. . Its justifiable keeping him and also sending him back to auction…so he has little value and i think that is reflected in this trade. If he signs with the Rockies go ahead and drop him.
So it comes down to prospects. And who are any of us to be an authority on prospects. But we might as well act like we know something. Drew Waters had more helium following a nice 2019 season, he regressed in 2021 and some places are pumping the brakes a bit, on the few lists I could find MLB.com has him ranked as 79th best prospect in baseball. Prospects 1500 had him at 105. A 22 years old in AAA, he slashed a .240/.329/.381 with a 31% K rate. Not the sexiest numbers, but people like him.
Ryne Nelson was unlisted in MLB’s top 100 and came in ranked 198 on Prospects 1500 list, as one writer on their staff has him ranked 97 in their personal top 100. He pitched in AA last year and did strike out 104 in 77 IP, but that also came with 13 HR’s allowed in his 14 AA starts.
Justin Lange is the kind of prospect that you never really give up any value for in this league because players of his profile can be picked up for free in season. You may think this is a bad take, but trust me I’m right here. He is a 19 year old kid who pitched in rookie ball and walked 15 in 22 IP while pitching to a 6.95 ERA. He could breakout and shoot way up lists but I feel like the same can be said for a plethora of pitchers available on the waiver wire. I’d rather make TBD kick in a few auction dollars. But if you like Lange go ahead and take him.
So this trade is perfectly fine for both teams. Who knows what Kikuchi goes for in auction this year, it was $38 bucks last year, i feel he maybe goes for a higher price this year so giving up the slightly better prospect makes sense, if your trying to make sure you don’t have to overpay for a guy you are targeting.