I feel like Marshall Law was definitely cutting $23 Elvis Andrus even though he now has no other SS on the roster. So this way, he at least gets something back. These prospects aren’t much, but Estevan Florial was at least on lists for a while and Osleivis Basabe presumably has as much upside as Misael Urbina, who he just traded away. The prospects in an Andrus trade are comparable or better than the ones in an Aaron Nola trade, even when only $15 salary separates the two players, what a world.
For H-Town, this is a little weird in that Andrus is his fourth shortstop (behind Manny Machado, who I assume he’s keeping, maybe not, Kevin Newman, and Luis Urias), but whatever. Depth is good. He obviously didn’t value these two prospects inherited from previous ownership and I can’t say I blame him. Might he have gotten Andrus cheaper at auction? Sure. Likely. But in my opinion it’s always better to enter auction needing less with fewer dollars to spend, rather than needing to buy 80% of a starting lineup with extra money to spend like Senior Squids or Who’s Your Haddy?.
Fair trade with two winners. The only loser here is me, for writing this review.
On the surface this trade looks lopsided. Aaron Nola is just 26-years-old, Steamer projects him as a top-15 overall pitcher in 2020, and he has consecutive 1,000+ point seasons on his resume. He checks every box as a top Dynasty Grinders asset (more on this in a moment). On the other side, there are two blah prospects and a spring training hype guy coming off Tommy John surgery who still carries a fair amount of reliever risk. This looks to be in favor of Marshall Law.
I do think it’s key to note the $33 savings here. This trade got Long Ball under $500 and that savings likely buys him at least another year of Kenta Maeda ($30), Michael Brantley ($29), or one of his higher priced pieces like Josh Donaldson ($77) or Zack Greinke ($67) that he’s been shopping. Those guys don’t show up in the Trade Accepted email, but they were no doubt a factor. My guess is, since Long Ball had listed all those guys on his trade block, there was zero interest across the board (because players that have salaries have cooties), so he ultimately sold whichever guy actually brought something back and that happened to be Nola. I’d argue the only “something” in this deal is Lamet, as the two prospects seem fairly disinteresting to me. Urbina is fine and has some long-term upside, Smith seems boring as a 1B-only with only 50 grade power. Whatever. It continuously blows my mind that upper tier players are traded in this league for churn-able prospects. Long Ball couldn’t get Vidal Brujan? Jazz Chisholm? As a rule of thumb, if a sub-$40 1,000 point player is traded, the prospects involved should really be guys Jordan has heard of before. Also, I probably would’ve rather just cut Maeda or Greinke or Brantley and kept Nola and missed out on Lamet. But the sum of Lamet plus whichever one of those guys would’ve been cut is probably close enough to Nola’s 2020 production to at least make the logical leap here.
I guess I’m mainly confused as to why a package headlined by Lamet and filled out by two prospects outside the top-250 was really the high offer.
Given Nola’s age, cost, and resume, he should’ve been coveted by literally every team, even the perpetual tankers. He was on the block publicly, so it’s not like his availability wasn’t known. I personally did not inquire on Nola, mainly because I’m sitting at $500 in keepers and The Bundle™ has ruined my mobility (weird how those rule changes that were met with such disgust ultimately did my team no favors), but I even sort of regret it now seeing this price. I could’ve probably afforded to punt a hitter to make room if push came to shove. If Long Ball waited until after auction, I would’ve probably thrown any prospects and picks he wanted at Nola and that terrifying $38 salary. Oh well.
How many other teams sat on the sidelines here? I guess people assumed the price would be too high and the mere thought of trading relevant prospects is unfathomable, but Urbina and Smith seem like fringe prospects at best right now. TBD and HLR will no doubt pick up far superior prospects for free throughout the season. Marshall will easily pick up better or comparable prospects to replace these guys himself. Even if Lamet meets his recent hype, Nola’s still likely to outscore him in 2020 and even teams like Senior Squids and We Talk Fantasy Sports and Who’s Your Haddy, who don’t intend to compete in the next half decade, should have been lining up here and could have probably beat this offer quite handily. You’re not getting a better asset than Nola at auction, so if that’s your game plan, good luck trying. If you were clinging to legitimate prospects out of fear of adding a whopping $38 in salary, well… whoops. And if you were out on Nola because you’re punting 2020, I guess I’m confused what the game plan is for 2021+ when you have no established good players in place when your prospects theoretically start getting promoted. The Bundle™ made Aaron Nola available for a low price and still no one with salary room took advantage? Hmm…
Overall, I like this deal for Marshall Law. If Lamet pans out, it probably buys Long Ball an extra player this year and next, maybe one more beyond that. For now I’ll gladly take the Nola side though.
H-Town Trashcan Punch trades away
SP Dylan Cease ($0; cost controlled)
C Danny Jansen ($1; cost controlled)
CF Alexander Canario (prospect; cost controlled)
CF Hedbert Perez (prospect; cost controlled)
BAILEY’S THOUGHTS
My immediate reaction to this trade is that it favored Marshall Law by a good margin, but it’s probably a lot closer than that.
A cost controlled, $0 Dylan Cease strikes me as the most valuable individual piece here. Lance McCullers strikes me as the best. In 453.2 actual major league innings, McCullers has posted a 10.1 K/9, 0.69 HR/9, and a 3.24 FIP. Those are fantastic numbers and he’s only 26, so there’s room for more. The obvious downside here is that he’s coming off Tommy John and has never thrown more than 128.1 IP in a season. There are big durability concerns (sore shoulder in 2016, two back injuries in 2017, a month on the DL with elbow pain and then eventually TJ in 2018) and question marks along the lines of: if your team gets to the playoffs, will he be around to pitch in them? Cease, meanwhile, was just okay last year in his first 73 big league innings. He walked too many guys and gave up too many homers, both red flags, but we’re still just talking about 73 innings. I feel like if every team submitted their best offers for McCullers and Cease, the offers for Cease would be better because of the cost control aspect. But at $10, McCullers is priced fine. If you’re placing a ton of value on a guy being $10 over $0 and cost controlled, I think you’re likely hung up on the wrong thing, especially when it comes to starting pitching. Quality starting pitchers under $15 or so, cost controlled or not, are super valuable assets.
For me, Jansen is the big wildcard here. A year ago he was something like a top-5 dynasty catching prospect. Now he’s a throw in? He did have a horrible offensive year, but catchers take time to acclimate and offense their defense takes priority over their offense at first. He’s still just 24, has 55 grades on his hit tool and power, and has no one really to steal time from him in Toronto. Marshall is clearly weak at catcher and took advantage of a buy-low opportunity.
The picks and prospects are whatever. I like Canario a lot and think if he was available in our minors draft, he likely goes toward the back of the first round or definitely by the middle of the second. He’s a ways off but there’s big upside. Hedbert Perez is a lotto ticket. The third round pick is borderline nothing, despite the fact people tripped over themselves to trade for them this year. Perez was just taken with the second pick of the fourth round, so I’d argue Perez/3rd rounder cancel each other out here in terms of value.
I guess to me, I’d rather have the Marshall Law side because it comes with more diversified dart throws. I’d probably rather have McCullers’ skills/major league resume than Cease’s, but the sum of the parts feels marginally greater on this one.
HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02
Sometimes I don’t read the review above before mine, but I’m glad I did this time because I’ll try my best not to harp on too many points already made. I would also rather have Cease than McCullers, mostly because Cease was one of the very top pitching prospects last year and now seems like the perfect buy low post hype guy to acquire him for cheap. Cashing the Cease chip in, I’d want someone more reliable than Lance McCullers. Gun to my head, I guess I’d take McCullers over Cease for 2020, but pretty decent chance I die on that. It seems super close at least, and I think most would agree Cease’s long term upside is much more favorable at this point. At least with the Innings Limit weekly rule change, McCullers gains some more value because him not going super deep into games will be less harmful than it would have been on a weekly starts league.
I would rather have Canario than a 3rd round pick, I agree with Bailey’s assessment of where he would have went in this last draft. If Canario continues his upward trajectory, he’s probably close to a top 1st half 1st round pick next year, but there’s certainly a very good chance he stalls and is worth less than a 3rd next year. Either way, I’d rather have the Cease/Canario side than McCullers/3rd round pick side.
I think Bailey was being too polite when he said Jansen was a top 5 catching prospect for a moment. I’m pretty sure he was #1 or 2 with Keibert Ruiz not too long ago. I’m not sure this is a star player, but certainly a nice add on for Marshall as is Hedbert Perez who possesses some tremendous, albeit remote, upside. If these two pieces amount to nothing, it doesn’t seem to matter much, but I do believe at least one of these guys will probably be worth more than a throw in a year from now.
I think the rational side of analyzing this trade will come down to who is better between Cease and McCullers and nothing else matters, and I not only lean Cease but the lotto tickets Marshall acquired here seem to put it over the top for me, even if they become nothing. Either way, Marshall needed some minor league talent after the formal trade request of Jazz Chisholm.
Organized Chaos trades away
SS Carlos Correa ($103)
CF Cole Roederer (prospect)
Jobu Needs a Refill trades away
SS Royce Lewis (prospect)
3B Gio Urshela ($10)
CF Kyle Isbel
BAILEY’S THOUGHTS
This is a weird one.
I didn’t really understand the first Carlos Correa trade (for relatively cheap Freddie Freeman and cost controlled Dansby Swanson, where Correa also came with a sweet, sweet prospect) and I don’t get this one either. I’m mostly surprised there was a buyer for Correa. I like him, but he hasn’t topped 481 plate appearances since 2016. I think he’s an awesome player, but he’s just never been healthy enough to rely on and being 25-years-old is offset by costing $103 and being an easy greed target, so there’s seemingly no long-term value beyond 2020. If Jobu needs to re-sell him this season, he should have buyers (hand raised emoji here), but even then, is someone like Long Ball or TBD giving up a Royce Lewis caliber prospect plus other pieces to rent Correa for the rest of 2020? I doubt it.
I mean, the salary is fine if Correa’s a bonafied 600+ PA stud. But he’s not. Anthony Rizzo is being kept at $95 and that seems alright. I’m keeping Bryce Harper at $117 because, well, why throw him back to auction to maybe save $20 to redistribute to Michael Wacha? Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard are on the trade block and priced similarly, but they somehow feel more reliable and impactful to me than Correa. Ultimately I think it’s okay to just build your best team possible for $500 and more or less ignore the individual salaries, but that sort of assumes your high salary guys are dependable. Like, Rizzo has topped 600 PA in seven straight years. If he gets hurt, that’d suck, but betting on his durability is a fairly safe bet.
I’m not a big Gio Urshela believer, but simply due to attrition, it wouldn’t shock me if Urshela outscores Correa in 2020. Or at least performs comparably. He won’t if they play the same number of games. But if Correa misses 50+ again, it seems possible.
Anyway, I do like that Jobu is attempting to field the best team possible in 2020. Prospects like Royce Lewis are rarely made available. So even if I don’t love the trade, I think it’s smart of Jobu to go against the grain and be the owner willing to make these guys available. If you’re okay saying that your entire prospect lot is not off limits, you can gain access to tons of actual major league points-scorers. Royce Lewis is, what… a top 10-15 prospect by most lists? So if he’s available and every other team is refusing to even discuss players if they’re on a top 100 list at all, maybe even top 150-200, you can potentially find an edge for yourself.
I’m also not quite sure how much I like Lewis. He was absolutely abysmal last year. The tools and the scouting reports are there and the lists love him, but how often do truly elite prospects have years as terrible as he just did? Having said that, the prospect love in this league suggests to me you could’ve gotten a massive haul for Lewis as soon as auction ended.
I have no idea who wins this trade. Probably Chaos. Although maybe not, since I still feel like if he rolled back that first Correa trade his team would be in a far better spot today.
HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02
I think Correa is a great player, obviously has injury risk and is expensive, but if he helps you compete and you have the cash, he’s great to have. My main issue with this trade for Jobu is he waited until Late January to put up an elite asset on the trade block in hopes of getting win now pieces. Strategically the move to get Correa for a prospect seems fine, and it doesn’t hurt that Lewis’ stock took a hit this offseason. That being said, I feel like the return for Lewis could have probably been better if he was shopped earlier and multiple teams were still holding on to good expensive players.
Urshella was also someone who took 2 2nd rounders and an OK prospect in Alexander Vargas to acquire for JOBU. So in order to get an over $100 dollar player it cost a super elite prospect and 2 2nd round picks (+Vargas). That just hasn’t been the going rate for Correa in 5 years of this league, and i think I’m in a position to know having owned him for most of it.
That being said, JOBU clearly has set up his team to make a run for it this year and his team certainly got better with this deal.
Marshall Law trades away
RP Alex Reyes ($7, cost controlled)
CF Austin Hays $9
Organized Chaos trades away
2020 3rd round pick
SP Ryan Rolison (“prospect”)
1B Grant Lavigne (“prospect”)
1B Pavin Smith (“prospect”)
BAILEY’S THOUGHTS
Organized Chaos gets two players that seemingly aren’t much individually but become much more impressive when you add their made up Fantrax projected points totals together and Marshall Law gets a grab bag of random 1Bman prospects you might have heard of before, a Rockies pitcher, and a coveted 3rd round pick. Seems like a fine trade to me. It does kind of feel like Marshall probably should’ve sent a little something extra back the other way, maybe a 4th round pick or something of that nature.
This seems reasonable for both teams. Any time you see a guy traded for a 3rd-5th rounder this time of year, assume he was getting cut by the team trading him away. Marshall is blatantly parsing down his salary commitments to make a run at a big time free agent. Who could it be? I have a well-placed source that says he’s got his eyes set on throwing $80 or so at Jeff Samardzija and Mike Fiers, who he could almost definitely turn around and flip to a pitching starved team after auction for prospects no one’s ever heard of. By getting this third rounder, Marshall has jumped in front of all my recently-acquired 3rds, which is truly devastating for my morale.
For Haddy, Kevin Gausman is a solid dice roll. He’s had flashes of greatness (to be fair, he’s also had flashes of relieverness and Orioleness/turdness) but at the cost of $23 salary and a draft pick, I like it. After cutting unkeepable $112 Mike Trout (per my spreadsheet), Haddy will have tons of salary to squander, so this helps prevent that a bit ahead of auction.
HUSTLE’s toxic $0.02
Trade seems fine for both teams. Marshall lets go of former HLR legend, Kevin Gausman , but instead of cutting him gets a 3rd round pick. So, that’s a win for him. For Haddy, he makes a de facto auction purchase via trade. I think $22 is about what Gausman would go for, assuming he’s in the rotation, so adding a 3rd pick to secure a guy you like is probably a good move. It’s a low upside acquisition, but also a low cost one. I like it for both teams given their current roster construction.
Capital City Ironmen trades away
2023 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Capital City Ironmen)
HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02
I anticipate that my team places better than Bailey’s in 2022 because a lot of his guys will have retired, thus I’d like to lock in a slightly better pick. It was announced that 2023 is the last expansion draft of our minor leaguers, so a 5th rounder will have some value.
BAILEY’s thoughts
I expect that my team will be better than Hustle’s in 2022 because I anticipate Nelson Cruz scoring 1,000 points per season well into his mid-50’s. Worst case, Hustle will end up with the higher pick and draft a prospect better than me, which honestly hurts me less than it does the teams who are hellbent on rebuilding despite having worse farm systems AND major league rosters than Hustle already has.
Whatever Kyle’s Team is Named This Week trades away
$12 Auction budget
BAILEY’S THOUGHTS
So I actually like CJ Cron as an under the radar, low cost solution to 1B/UT. He’s got 55 homers the last two years and should be starting every day now that he plays for the tanking Tigers. That said, one look at Long Ball’s roster and I think you can deduce Cron was getting cut. Would he go for more than $22 (his salary plus the acquisition cost here) at auction? I highly, highly doubt it. I feel like that only happens if a team takes $250-$300 into auction and realizes there’s nothing to spend it on, and even then, they need someone else to bid the price up. I also kinda feel like at that price, he’s no longer a “low cost solution.” I mean, maybe he goes for $15 but I think his $10 salary is about his cap at auction. If he would’ve gone for $15 then fine, you wasted $7 by making this trade and that won’t really sting. I don’t know. I’m pacing to cut Joey Votto and Steamer projects him as a top 25-30 overall hitter. How much more than $22 is he going for at auction, given most people don’t want old guys? It’s not a horrible deal but I would’ve rather just taken $22 into auction because I think you can come away with a better player than Cron. For Long Ball, this seems fantastic. He turned a cut into $12 and I reckon he can convert that $12 into at the very least a player comparable to Cron.
HUSTLE’s toxic $0.02
I prefer the side for Long Balls here, but not by that much. CJ Cron is a former HLR Legend, so I will always have respect for his contributions. $22 spent by Kyle to buy and keep him here seems fine, but bordering on probably not needed. It might be better to roll the dice in auction and spend a few more or less to get him if he’s your only option. CJ Cron has a lot of playing time coming his way if he can stay healthy, so he’s someone you’ll feel pretty good in fitting in a 1b or UT slot on most days, but he’s not a game changer and ideally you do want someone better in one of those spots. He cut his strike out rate almost 5 full points from the previous two years, but the paltry walk out rate for a slugger remains the issue that keeps him from being a fantasy star.
$22 for Cron is certainly better than the $26 for Bruce or $32 for Adam Jones last year. There weren’t basically any middle of the lineup hitters in last year’s auction, so that may have been a good price last year, but I imagine it might not be this year. Maybe it will. Cron is a nice depth piece to have, and even at $22 auction dollars total, that’s not a big price.
This trade isn’t as cut and dry as Avisail is $23 cheaper, so this is a win for Marshall. Maybe it is. Elton certainly has a crater at 3b right with just Tommy Edman as his starting 3b (use to be cost controlled Matt Chapman). Seager was a beast in the second half and spending $33 for anything close to that 2nd half seems pretty fine, especially at the cost of Avisail Garcia who has been traded probably half a dozen times in our league’s history. Yes, Avisail is a former HLR legend (as is half the league at this point). I like Avisail a decent amount, and going to Milwaukee certainly helps. That being said, Avisail won’t be an every day player and Seager will be, so I think that mitigated at least some of the price difference. The auction money really doesn’t matter unless you’re trying to fit in an additional really good player, so I don’t see the price as a big deal. Seager helps Elton’s team more this year than Avisail was and committing a year to that contract doesn’t seem like a big deal. Marshall probably wasn’t keeping a $33 Seager to backup Moncada, but with no backup now he will look for a cheaper replacement in auction or the wire. I think both owners here did a good adding roster depth to their own teams at the cost of surplus on their own.
BAILEY’S THOUGHTS
After trading cost controlled stud 3Bman Matt Chapman away for a Mariners prospect without first listing him on the trade block to surely ignite a bidding war, Senior Squids needed a 3Bman. Kyle Seager is a pretty good one. Prior to 2018, he was one of the best, most consistent guys in the league and in the second half of 2019 he looked like that same guy. I think he’s overpriced, but Squids is in a spot to potentially take a bunch of money to auction which seems like a recipe for disaster even though The Bundle has ensured this will be our strongest auction ever. May as well add pieces now. Squids announced publicly in Slack a while ago that he didn’t intend to compete in 2020, so one path here is that immediately after auction he could shop Seager to teams with high salaries like mine that can’t currently add much and get more than he paid here. Salary stuff aside, Seager is more appealing to contenders than Avisail in 2020, right? I guess there’s a debate to be had there but I lean yes.
Anyway, this trade seems okay for both teams if you don’t believe the $23 difference between the two players matters much. Clearly, Marshall believes it does (let’s be honest, he was cutting Seager) and Elton believes it doesn’t. I like a good challenge trade. Shrugging emoji.
Capital City Ironmentrades away
Roberto Perez ($7) 2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Capital City Ironmen)
Hustle’s Toxic $.02: Marshall needed a catcher so he traded down in the 5th round (11 picks total) to get a $7 Roberto Perez. The price was basically free. So why not? Perez’ Streamer slash line is projected at 219/303/399 slash, which would be down from 239/321/452 of last year. If he regresses that much he might not be worth owning. His biggest asset is PAs at catcher, and currently he’s expected to get a decent amount. $7 in auction for Perez would be fine, last year Tucker Barnhart went for $23. That might not be the guide to guy by, but clearly shows some people’s desperation if it goes to auction. As bad as a $23 was for Barnhart, someone bid $22. This is a nice way to lock in some catcher PAs and Marshall was currently carrying a blank there, so this is a cheap fix. For Bailey? Moving up 11 picks in the 5th makes his farm just a bit stronger than it was before this trade. Congrats.
Capital City Ironmentrades away 2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (JobuNeedsARefill) Clayton Kershaw ($125)
Hustle’s Toxic $.02: First thought that comes to my mind when seeing this trade come in is remembering that Kershaw was traded straight up for a 5th round pick a couple months ago. So Bailey clearly profited here. Turned two 5th round picks into a 3rd. Somehow, his farm got even stronger. Back to back trades. His rebuild is hitting its stride here. Well done sir.
For Swinson, he gives up a 3rd round pick for a very overpriced Kershaw. If Kershaw gets thrown back in, he goes for a lot. Maybe 90, maybe 120, maybe more. A few teams have a lot of money heading into auction, Swinson basically made his purchase at the expense of a mid round pick. It seems good. Rounding out his budget with a high end pitcher seems smart with his roster, and if it doesn’t work out, he can probably get a pretty decent haul for a Kershaw rental. The only critique here is probably not getting on it earlier where as it might have only costed him a 4th or 5th, but that’s a minor point. Leaving auction money on the table is the worst thing you can do, and this ensures Swinson won’t.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02 Wade Miley was pretty useful in the first half last season and terrible in the second half. Trumpas picks up $3 pitcher for a 3rd round pick. With Innings Pitched instead of starts, Miley’s disaster games will hurt a little less. I wouldn’t bet on Miley to be a very good pitcher in 2020, especially heading to Great American Smallpark, but this also wasn’t a very big bet. I like this move to add SP depth for Trumpas.
Yet again, Bailey has made his farm stronger by getting a mid round pick. I’m in awe of the mobility he’s created in his rebuild. At this pace, by 2025, he might have a top 10 farm in Dynasty Grinders. Things are looking up!
The trade was for the 44th pick of the 2020 draft which has now been traded back and forth at least 4 times and is now back on Bailey’s team. The anticipation of whoever is picked here (likely Noah Song), will be through the roof come draft day! 21 days away!
Just when I thought the nonsense was over, they bring me back in. Bailey is on a mission here with all these picks. 2 more 3rd rounders! He just bumped up his window in being a top 10 farm (maybe) by a full year. 2024.
For Trumpas, I think this is fine. Ideally you only give up one 3rd rounder here. Julio Teheran moving to a better pitchers park helps his value. $33 seems about what he’d go for in auction. If he goes for less, it wouldn’t be a tremendous amount. Trumpas adds some more depth to its rotation that was in dire need for it. Maybe seeing Kershaw go off the board earlier in the day inspired Trumpas to make his de facto auction purchase.
Even if I’m not optimistic about his chances for Tehran’s success in 2020, the price was low enough for the gamble. Other than the Kershaw deal, that seems to be the trend in all three of these.
Bailey got some trade sweetners and since we are expanding 5 spots through 2023, these third rounders will have some value going forward.
