Brew Crew trades away
Pine Mountain Podstars trades away
This might be a homer trade for Brew Crew. Given the state of his roster and prospects (which have improved), this is going to be a long year. And if it takes a homer trade to get a guy that you can root for, I get it. You’ve gotta have something to keep you excited. Keston had a great 2019 with the Brewers. Last offseason he was being talked about as a top 3 second baseman in fantasy. We just didn’t see that same guy in 2020. Hiura has always been a free swinger, lots of K’s, not a lot of walks, but this year he had a K rate of 35%. The book might be out on Keston, he simply could not handle off-speed pitches in 2020, posting a .185 slugging against them. He definitely has the talent to make adjustments and I hope we see that in 2021. However, also working against him is his well below average defense. Assuming there is a DH in the NL soon, Keston is an obvious DH type in Milwaukee. Should that happen, and he becomes UT only in DG, the bat would have to be elite again to sustain this valuation. Fingers crossed.
Will Smith is really exciting. If his 2020 numbers are any indication of the player he’s going to be moving forward, Podstars could end up with the best player in this deal. If you’re bored, check out Will Smith‘s Baseball Savant page. Lots of red. He’s already in the conversation with Realmuto as the best fantasy catcher after two partial seasons. I’ll grant you that it’s a small sample, but he couldn’t have done any better than he did. Along with Smith, Podstars also gets the rights to JP Crawford, who will undoubtedly be kept on his roster for three and half months, just to be cut the day before the auction.
Marshall Law Trades:
Bomb Squad Trades:
(Obligatory trash can joke.)Look, Bregman took a step back – I know it, you know it. His BABIP dropped almost 30 points, but even then, BABIP wasn’t a big part of Bregman’s game anyways (in 2018 and 2019, his BABIP was below .300). The slugging percentage dropping by 140 points is scary, and the .451 slugging was the lowest of his career. But there are some encouraging steps, in that his swinging strike percentage was still below five percent, his contact rate still sat over 85 percent, and his exit velocity still sat at his career average. All of that, plus a manageable $40 salary and the fact he will play the obligatory amount to get SS eligibility (thank you, Carlos Correa!), makes him a smart buy-low to me. Oh, AND George Kirby? A power arm that throws strikes? He doesn’t walk anyone. Literally – he didn’t walk anyone in 2019. He’s not a Top 100 prospect, but you know how you just see a guy making the majors? That’s Kirby. The other stuff is still a little behind, but he could get himself to Seattle in part of an interesting rebuild quickly. Getting Lindor when you have Carlos Correa and Adalberto Mondesi, flawed as they are is an…interesting approach. In those three players alone, Bomb Squad now has over $180. Meanwhile, the third base options are… Maikel Franco? Hanser Alberto? The more I see this, the less I get it. But okay, let’s say he can trade Carlos Correa, he has Lindor now, and the counting stats are great (30 HR from 2017-2019), but there are SOME worrying pieces as the swinging strikes are going up and the barrels are going down. Still, I give him a 2020 Pass too, because this year was wacky (his Slugging fell by more than 100 points though, for what it’s worth). Who wins? I’ll take Marshall in this one, if only because the trading pieces in HIS positional surplus (Moncada, Urshela) would be better than Bomb’s surplus (Correa, Mondesi) should either one choose to trade them. Plus, adding players and losing some salary is a win-win to me.
Dozier Huge Boobs Trades:
Lourdes Gurriel, Jr.
It takes someone either very arrogant or very stupid to evaluate other peoples’ moves and designate a winner and a loser. Lucky for you, dear reader, I am both. Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. is interesting, in that he’s approaching what is considered in sports writing circles to be the prime of his career (he’ll be 27 on Opening Day 2021), and put up roughly his best performances in every slash line (his slugging in 2019 was .007 better, so call it a push). Oh, and did I mention he is still only $1? This is the kind of guy that you wouldn’t really think to trade away … but there are some warts. Gurriel had his hard hit percentage actually FALL by more than 10 percent in Fangraph’s metric, lining up more with his 2018 outcome (281/309/446). So how did he break through? BABIP, baby. He had a BABIP of an unreal .351. Yet in Statcast terms, his hard hit rate went UP, and his barrels continue to trend upwards. In all, I want to be a skeptic, but I think he’s the kind of guy you should keep, unless you get a haul. The Huge Boobs get Liberated with Matthew Liberatore (#52 in MLB Top 100), a large guy with a super projectable curveball that I have stanned since he was drafted in 2018. He does walk a few too many (3.56 BB/9 in A ball in 2019), but the stuff should play. And in the NL Central with a salary of $0? That should be a big boost if he meets his upside. Francisco Alvarez (#58 in MLB Top 100) is not someone I knew much about, admittedly (I’m catching up, okay!?) but he played well at 17 in professional baseball and hit at a sturdy clip. Catchers always seem to get their bat skills late, but Alvarez aced the first test. We will see how 2021 goes. Oy vey, but talk about failing the first test, Carter Kieboom is 0-for-one and a half now? Looking at his 2020, it’s a massive yikes. In 67 hitting events, he had zero barrels. ZERO. Here are some other zero barrelers for your enjoyment: Isaac Paredes, Tony Wolters, and Nick Madrigal. His 85.1 exit velocity also tied him with Shogo Akiyama and Danny Jansen. So yeah, it was bad. BUT! He walked 14 percent of the time, he had a 76 percent contact rate, and has a track record of on-base skills. If he was a throw-in, it’s a solid lottery ticket, if it’s a legitimate piece, that’s a problem. I think this trade is closer than it may seem when you’re looking at the names, only because Kieboom has soured to an unbelievable extent, and two Top 60 prospects, while nice, are far away. I get the return for Dozier, but TBD gets a nice piece and only loses $1 to do it. That’s not bad.
Dozier Huge Boobs trades away
Long ball to LF trades away
- Liover Peguero
- Shane McClanahan
- Antoine Kelly
Is this the year that Lance Lynn turns back into a pumpkin? He’s been living a charmed existence since getting to Texas, and it doesn’t make sense. He throws off-speed pitches just 10% of the time. Yet, somehow he has scored over 35 points per game each of the last two years. My worry with Lynn is that as he ages and the velocity comes down he won’t be able to keep hitters off balance. However, until we see signs of regression, his value as a $10 pitcher with 35 ppg upside is much higher than the prospect package it took to acquire him. I think Dozier should have exercised a bit more patience with this one. Kudos to Longball for striking while the iron is hot, but this is the kind of player that should have started a bidding war. I would have expected a Max Muncy type return for Lynn. From what I see, he was put on the trade block at 8:35p and traded at 9:48p. Which isn’t necessarily wrong, but sometimes you gotta let it breathe instead of taking the first offer.
Now for the prospects. As a Brewers fan, I’ve always been fond of Antoine Kelly. Big bodied kid with a huge fastball from the left side, but could end up in the bullpen with his command issues and inconsistent secondaries. Peguero is a glove first SS that you hope ends up being 5 and 5 with the bat. The Pirates traded for him, so they must see something they like? But they’re the Pirates so that’s probably a bad thing. Shane McClanahan is my favorite of the bunch, but I’d like him more if he wasn’t destined to be a twice through the order guy for the Rays. At best. Probably more like a multi inning reliever.
Final thought: Be patient. It’s November.
Hustle Loyalty and Respect trades away
- Joey Bart – $0 cc
- Francisco Morales– $0 cc
- Heliot Ramos – $0 cc
- Mitch Keller – $0 cc
Suplex City trades away
Keeping up with the Jones? It’s a good trade for both teams, a rebuilding team and a team favorite to win it all in 2021. They both went out trying to improve their teams, and they did.
In the short 2020 season Luis Castillo averaged 36.3 FP/G in 12 starts. He’s the 14th best pitcher in the league and in 2019 he averaged 34.7 FP/G. The best part in the trade is Castillo is entering his prime at age 27 and has a salary of only $15. Hustle watched TBD acquire some valuable pieces since trading began. Hustle countered by picking up Castillo, a top 10 pitcher in our league and the MLB. Did Hustle over pay? Or is this the going price for cream-of-the-crop pitching, only time will tell.
Suplex City got four quality prospects and hopefully Joey Bart has found a home. In less than 30 hours Bart was traded three times. If my math is correct, in two days Suplex has added 13 minor league prospects. When he took over the team he only had one top 100 prospect and now according to the Senior Squids prospect spreadsheet they now have six top 100 prospects, good for them.
- Joey Bart is Buster Posey’s replacement and should not have a problem finding playing time with a 50 hit tool and a 60 power tool.
- Francisco Morales is still very young but with a 6’4″ frame who can hit 97 mph with the fastball and 70-grade slider, he’s going to be good.
- Heliot Ramos, a 21 year old, has already made it to Double AA and is on the fast track to the majors, especially since the Giants are on a rebuild. In the Cal League in 2019 he had the 3rd best (143 wRC+). He’s a big guy with power and is very athletic.
- Mitch Keller is slated to be the Pirates #2 pitcher and had a tough MLB debut with 7.13 ERA in 11 starts. However, in 2019 he posted 3.56 ERA at AAA. Keller is still only 24 and was a top 100 prospect coming out of Cedar Rapids IA. He will definitely have his opportunity with the always the rebuilding Pirates.
For the new owners, these draft reviews mean nothing or absolutely zilch and are just for fun. I used to take these reviews seriously, “crap, did I just screw up” DON”T worry about it. If you want a player go for it and hope for the best. Everyone values players differently like chocolate and vanilla ice cream or whatever flavor you like.
Finally, if you don’t value prospects you need to start yesterday, this is a dynasty league. The reason TBD and Hustle are always at the top of the standings is because they are great at prospecting and use their assets to make trades like this one. My advice is to start a prospect spreadsheet, the internet has plenty of free resources. Good trade by both teams.
Marshall Law trades away
Suplex City trades away
So Michael Kopech is rated as Baseball America’s 29th best prospect, part of the package the Red Sox gave up to get Chris Sale. He apparently has the stuff to be top of the line, but has lacked the arm health. He is the target here, as he is a high ceiling player you dream about becoming your fantasy team ace.
Kyle Freeland had a nice 2018 in Colorado. That’s something. Pitching in Colorado is tough, he has been not great the last 2 years. He’s a SP for $7 so he has value, and i would keep him.
Gallo….wasn’t great in 2020..4.4 fantasy points per game. In 2019 he was 7.9 fantasy points per game over just 240AB’s. Was the new ballpark being less hitter friendly the reason for Gallo’s drop in production? Was it just small sample size? If he is a 4.4 point per game player this trade makes a lot of sense. I would view him more as a 6 per game player with CF, LF,RF eligibility.
Dane Dunning is Baseball America’s 95th best prospect in the latest rankings and made 7 starts this past season with numbers like this Whip 1.11, 9.3K/9 and 3.4BB/9. He seems like a solid #3 in the making.
In my view if you take Dunning out of the trade it makes more sense. Gallo for Kopech seems about right. I’m not sure if Suplex likes Freeland more than I do or what but I have to side with Marshall here. If Freeland returns to 2018 form than it looks much better. If Gallo doesn’t bounce back it looks much better, but really the trade hinges on Kopech. One of those trade reviews where i look silly in a few years when Michal Kopech is the Cy young winner. Shoot your shot.
Who’s Your Haddy trades away
- Clarke Schmidt – $0 cc
- Taylor Trammell – prospect
- Brett Baty – prospect
- 2021 Draft Pick, Round 3 Pick 3
Suplex City trades away
Suplex City continues trading at a feverish pace. This time he parts with batting champ Tim Anderson. Haddy makes his first move of the day and fills an obvious need at SS.
I think I give this one to Suplex City. The prospect package he got for Anderson is headlined by Clarke Schmidt, who I really like. It is pretty clear that the Yankees love the guy because they were super cautious with him in 2020 and made sure not to start his service time. He’s also already at the major league level. Even if they keep him in the minors to start the 2021 season to work on his defense or whatever excuse they use to manipulate his service time.. he’ll still be a $0 cost controlled starter that puts up quality innings. Just as you can read through the lines with Schmidt, you can do the same for Trammell. It is pretty clear that major league front offices value him quiet a bit less than the fantasy baseball community. If he was a sure fire stud, he wouldn’t have been traded twice before his debut. First he was traded in a deal for Trevor Bauer then in a deal for Austin Nola. Not a great trend. He’s already 23 and the Mariners have no reason to keep him in the minors. So maybe he gets his shot and overachieves like Kyle Lewis? That’s your hope here. As for Baty, I don’t think he makes enough contact to make a big impact and I worry the glove won’t keep him at 3B. He’ll hit homers, but if he’s relegated to RF he has to make even more contract to stay relevant.
Every year Tim Anderson is a threat to win the AL batting title. In 2019 he hit .335 and followed that up with .322 in 2020. I just worry that production doesn’t translate to elite fantasy points. In 2019 he won the batting title, it was good for 6.4 points per game. Which was 13th best among SS that year. In 2020 he was walking at a higher rate, which could mean better times are around the corner, and I hope that’s the case. While he’s be a star in the MLB and one of the leagues most popular players, he still unproven as a star fantasy asset in DG.
Dozier Huge Boobs trades away
- Max Muncy – $18
- 2021 Draft Pick, Round 4 Pick 10
- 2021 Draft Pick, Round 3 Pick 10
Who’s Your Haddy trades away
- Jordan Groshans (prospect)
- Drew Waters (prospect)
- Brayan Rocchio (prospect)
Max Muncy, the man who came out of nowhere, at age 27 put up an OPS of .973, followed it up with an .889 in 2019. He did dip down to .720 OPS in 2020 in a shortened 200 AB sample. Is this the sign of decline at the age of 30 or just a small sample noise? My advice when evaluating players is to take 2020 stats with a grain of salt as they were playing only a small amount of teams and the sample size is small.
I know Haddy was competing with some other teams for Muncy, and congrats on ponying up enough prospect capital to win and get this guy, as he will no doubt help you win. His positional flexibility alone makes him valuable as 2B and 1B may be two of the shallowest fantasy positions this year. At age 30 he should be valuable for the next 2-3 years at minimum and his cost is not a worry in the least.
As for the DHB, the prospect return here is probably my favorite prospect package of all the rebuilders trades. According to Baseball America DHB picked up the number 25 and 32 prospects in Groshans and Waters respectively. And Rocchio is a young high ceiling guy who is a perfect 3rd player lottery ticket. Groshans has yet to play any meaningful games above Low A so is still high risk. So while its an exciting package with lots of potential, there is risk. Prospects aren’t the only way to rebuild …I think Kolten Wong would have been a buy low candidate that Haddy throws in with the prospects if its needed to get the job done, and with a bounce back year from Wong you have a solid 2B or more trade bait. Something to think about
Solid trade for both teams, with 3 high ceiling players DHB has good odds of looking back in 3 years and marking this down as a win, but for now Hadley gets to compete with a revamped infield. Things to remember when you have a core player at a cheap salary you have the power as that player is in demand. You can hold that player and make your team better and trade him mid season(after you fall out of contention) and still likely get a nice prospect return. So don’t be afraid to hold out for more and if you can get multiple competing teams involved to bid up the price all the better. Take your time out there. Like your mother always says…slow and steady wins the race.
Suplex City trades away
Pine Mountain Podstars trades away
Trades like this typically favor the team that gets the best player, and that player here is Luis Severino. If he can return to form following his surgery, this is a win for the Podstars. Adding Sevy to a rotation that already includes Buehler, Snell, and Woodruff gives him one of the strongest in the league. Sadly, we probably won’t see Sevy back on the mound until the end of 2021, but this is a good get nonetheless. Bryse Wilson is a nice flier, but in a Braves rotation that recently added Morton and Smyly, he is destined for long relief and a few spot starts. He could be a trade chip if the Braves go all in, for now he’s a wait and see. Polanco is barely worth a mention, I had him penciled in as a cut because of his $24 salary.
Suplex City gets himself a smattering of buy-lows here. I like Laureano and Civale the most of this group. Civale is a command pitcher, but he’s with Cleveland so they’ll probably make him into a stud. At $8, I like that risk. Laureano still has some questions with the bat but the glove will keep him in that lineup for the foreseeable future. Kyle Gibson and Ryan McMahon are both guys who came up with lots of promise, but we just haven’t seen their skill translate to the majors. Gibson has good stuff but is inconsistent and McMahon is with the Rockies. Suplex will get some value out of Joey Bart. The Giants have said they’ll play him at 1B when Posey is catching, so maybe he can avoid the typical downside to being an everyday catcher. This will put a lot of pressure on the bat, which I don’t think is good enough for a right handed first baseman.
Suplex City trades away
TBD trades away
- Casey Mize – $0 cc
- Shane Baz – prospect
- Yuli Gurriel – $10
Suplex City, I was happy to hear your positive feedback from the Trea Turner trade review. Keep those happy feelings in mind while you read this one.
Trading an elite bat for pitching prospects is a bad idea. Lets fast forward three years. Anthony Rendon is a stud offensive performer who is especially valuable in Dynasty Grinders because he has an elite wOBA. Casey Mize is… recovering from shoulder surgery? In the bullpen because he lacks fastball command? During his few starts in Detroit, Mize showed two elite out pitches, and a fastball that couldn’t find the zone. Maybe he figures it out and lives up to his billing as the 1-1 in the MLB draft. I hope so, because that is the Casey Mize you paid for. I’d like this trade more if Mize was a buy low, but I think you paid full price. This trade would make more sense if it was Kieboom, Mize, Gurriel. Then at least you get a bat that has a higher floor and mitigate some of the pitcher risk. Pretty sure Josh and Joe do the deal with Kieboom instead of Baz. Side bar, in a vacuum, I do like Baz, just not in this deal.
TBD cements themselves as the top contender headed into the 2021 season. Rendon is the best piece they’ve added today and it didn’t even hurt them to acquire him. Oh, and they got a 5th rounder because Rendon wasn’t enough on his own to part with two risky prospects and a 36 year old 1B.