dynasty – Dynasty Grinders

Dynasty Grinders Deep Dive Minor League Draft / Waiver Wire Pickups

Amazon.com: 2016 Bowman International Ink #II-FT Fernando Tatis Jr. White Sox MLB Baseball Card NM-MT: Collectibles & Fine Art

I thought I would do a deep dive into Dynasty Grinders Minor League Draft for our new friends that have joined the league this year. The minor league draft can be a crap shoot, especially the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds. I’m not a big fan in obtaining later round picks in the draft. Usually they are just thrown ins to make the trade look better, you will see with the deep dive.

The main reason TBD and HLR can acquire players like Glasnow and Castillo is because they are professional prospectors. I do think Glasnow and Castillo trades were a little lite going the other way considering the ages and salaries of both player. I will guarantee you that TBD and HLR will restock quickly but it will get harder if everyone Grinds as hard as they do. The league will be going to 40 prospects this year, that’s 640 prospects. In 2023 the league will reach 50 prospects, that’s 800 players, that’s a lot of prospects and probably a lot of streaming of prospects.

I used the Senior Squids Prospect Spreadsheet as my reference, the spreadsheet probably not as good as Hustle Media but you try to learn from the best, right? Dynasty Grinders has been around since 2016. The first year we drafted ten prospects each, good information can be gleaned from the draft but not in the later rounds because we were only drafting 160 players. I concentrated 2017 and 2018 drafts where the draft pooled increased 240 and 320 players respectively.

A couple items: MLB/DM (DM = difference makers, Tatis types) category are drafted players that have made their MLB debut, don’t be fool with the category, just because the player fulfilled their dream making the majors doesn’t mean that are valuable fantasy assets. Can you say Daniel Gosset?

Finally, the prospect ranking 1-10, 11-50, 51-100, 101-200, 200 and up. I also went to the Dynasty Grinders Fantrax pages and to see who was picked up off the waiver wire during the last four years. For the new owners this is where you need to grind and fine that hidden jewel and as you will see there were some crazy good players that were never drafted and plucked off the waiver wire.

2016 Draft

Busts:

1-7 Lewis Brinson, didn’t he just get traded for the 10th time last week?

1-11 AJ Reed

2-6 Jose De Leon, yea I traded for him.

Bam:

1-1 Yoan Moncada

1-4 Tyler Glasnow

1-13 Blake Snell

Wow, I drafted him that late, okay then.

5.3 Jack Flaherty

8.1 Matt Chapman

9.5 Walker Buehler, now this is a crazy one, he was drafted in 2016 and dropped and redrafted in the second round in 2017. Great grinding by TBD.

12.3 Sandy Alcantra, yea I traded for him and traded him away too. Yea another stupid trade.

Wow Waiver Wire Pickups

Hunter Dozier, Royals, he was picked up and dropped a few times, including me.

Juan Soto, Nationals, nice job Long Ball

Max Muncy Dodgers, first Dusty and he dropped him and of course HLR picked him up. HLR is huge Dodger fan. If you don’t know the fantasy owners favorite teams your missing out. I’m a sucker for the Mariners and I will pay a high price for JRod.

Cristian Pache, Braves, another Longball pickup

Mitch Keller, Pirates, another TBD pickup

2017 Draft

Busts:

Honestly the whole 1st rounds sucked!

1-1 Kevin Maitan, yea #1 player, I believe we was the best player on the board before the draft but I think he got his money and got fat and lazy. Most prospect web sites don’t have him ranked anymore. Hey, Boobs you have a 1st overall pick on your team.

1-3 Cory Ray

1-4 Blake Rutherford

1-5 Mickey Moniak

1-6 Delvin Perez

1-7 Jason Groom

I could go on…….

Bam:

2-4 Walker Buehler, nice pick up TBD

2-11 Luis Castillo

3-6 Fernando Tatis, HLR unfortunately traded him for a bag of balls.

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.

4-1 Jesus Luzardo

5-16 Dinelson Lamet, HLR, yep the last player taken and yea he traded him too.

Wow Waiver Wire Pickups

Shane Bieber, Indians, yep you read that right, the best pitcher in the league was never drafted. What does that tell the new owners? You need to grind.

Ronald Acuna, Braves, 8.86 ppg. Long Ball hits the jackpot again, Acuna and Soto are the corner stone of his team.

		MLB/DM	1-10	11-50	51-100	101-200	200 and Up
2017	1 Round	10/0	0	0	0	0	6

	2 Round	7/2	1	1	1	0	6

	3 Round	9/1	1	1	0	0	5

	4 Round	8/1	0	0	0	0	7

	5 Round	6	0	0	0	0	10

Difference Makers: Buehler, Castillo, Luzardo and Tatis.

2018 Draft

It’s probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows but…….

Busts:

1-7 Brendan McKay, Rays, shoulder surgery in Aug 2020, drafting pitching is always risky.

1-8 Kyle Wright, Braves, yep that was me,

1-11 Alex Faedo Tigers, another pitcher with arm issues too

Bam:

1.1 Luis Robert, White Sox, Roberts made it to the show pretty quick

2.9 Wander Franco, 1# prospect in the league, however he biceps and shoulder issues, at least he’s not a pitcher.

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.

5-2 Vidal Brujan, Rays, Top 50 prospect

5-10 Sean Murphy, A’s, made it to the show and is a top ten catcher, I believe catchers are the hardest position to fill because they usually can’t hit.

3-13 Will Smith, another productive catcher and he might be the best catcher in 2021

Waiver Wire Pickups

Bobby Dalbac impressive first year with 7.11 PPG, dropped by Longball, TBD picked him up and traded him to Organized Chaos.

Gavin Lux top 50 prospect who made his debut in 2020

Cavin Biggo with a 6.24 PPG and of course I had him on my team at one time.

Spencer Howard, Top 50 prospect, yep I finally got a good waiver pick up.

		MLB/DM	1-10	11-50	51-100	101-200	200 and Up
2018	1 Round	7/1	1	1	1	2	4

	2 Round	5	1			2	8

	3 Round	7/1		1		1	7

	4 Round	3		2	1	1	9

	5 Round	4			1		11

Difference Makers: Luis Robert and Will Smith

2019 Draft

Again probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows.

Busts:

1-2 Jonathen India, Reds, is TBD actually human? India’s stock has fell since being drafted as he”s dropped out of the many of the top 200 prospects list but it is TBD and India is still young.

1-11 Victor Victor Mesa, Marlins, Mesa is out on most experts top 300 prospects list

Bam:

3-3 Noelvi Marte, Mariners Top 25 prospect but it’s still early

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.

5-10 Dylan Carlson Cardinals, nice pick up by the Beach Bums, top ten prospect, however struggle in the short MLB season.

Waiver Wire Pickups

Mitch Garver, Twins, but is he for real? A 29 year old catcher with 7.2 PPG in 2019 but Ryan Jeffers might have taken his place as the starting catcher?

Gio Urshela , Yankees, picked up by Ferns than dropped and picked by TBD and traded to Marshall Plan. Urshela scored 6 PPG in 2020.

I didn’t find any other good pick ups except a bunch of relief pitchers claims by HLR, in 2019 HLR had 542 waiver claims which I think is a Dynasty Grinders record.

Observations

Prospects are the key to success in any dynasty league and especially in Dynasty Grinders. If you don’t grind prospects don’t expect to win a championships anytime soon. Prospects and the waiver wire is where you need to grind.

First round picks are huge, especially the top 5 or 6 picks. In our league 80% of the first round picks make the major leagues, second rounders 60% and third rounders 40%. I’m not fan of obtaining 4th and 5th rounders in trades, they are like candy corn and are only good for about five minutes. As you can see only a hand full of 4th and 5th rounders hit. You would be better off grinding the waiver wire.

Remember when you obtain a first rounder from one of the top teams it’s really an early 2nd rounder and how many 2nd rounders hit, maybe 60%. There has been some good second rounders that hit like Buehler and Castillo who were just traded.

Drafting pitchers is always a risk for two reasons, injuries and will the pitcher become a bullpen arm. Additionally drafting high school / international players are also a risk because of their age and their development (Maitan). HLR has been very successful in that department, I’m wondering if he would be willing to share his secret sauce, probably not.

The waiver wire is where you can make up some ground but it takes a lot of grinding. Long Ball is the king by picking up Acuna and Soto. HLR is the king of roster claims with a record of 542 claims in 2019, however make sure you watch your FAAB budget. Additionally, watch the prospect experts in the league, sometimes they drop prospects they don’t have room for but you might.

Finally, there is plenty of free prospects web sites to visit. A few sites have a pay wall but worth the $5 a month price. If any of you like podcasts there are plenty out there that are both informational and entertaining.

Organized Chaos I Pine Mountan Podstars

Rookie starter Justus Sheffield continuing to impress in breakout season with Mariners | Tacoma News Tribune

Organized Chaos

gets

pick 8 in this years draft
2nd rounder in 2022
Jorge Mateo

Pine Mountain Podstars

gets

Touki Toussant
Alex Reyes
Justus Sheffield
Mike Yastrzemski
Lazaro Armenteros

Beer Goggles are a thing in dynasty fantasy baseball. We have all worn them at some point right? Some people just get a little carried away when trying to acquire a 1st round pick and lose their freaking mind. At the bar you may have a wing man who hasn’t had as much to drink who can warn you that the girl across the way isn’t quite the trophy you think she is. I’m certain assman Fito has wanted to make some trades in the past where wingman Rawlings has had to pump the brakes and let sanity prevail. Truth be told I wish I had a wingman when I decided to send Jameson Taillon packing for a couple picks to save salary when he was facing TJ surgery. If anyone thinks they have the goggles on, and wants a reality check, I would be available to take a quick glance for you. Don’t wake up next to Kathy Bates.

I guess you know where I am going with this. I love this trade for Pine Mountain Podstars. Why? Mike Yastrzemski came out of nowhere the last couple years. At 29 this past year he put up an OPS of .968. Should have a couple peak seasons ahead of him. I probably wouldn’t have given up my first round pick for him, but would have thought long and hard about it. I tend to keep mine just because I enjoy making picks, that is my favorite part of fantasy baseball, so I understand the desire to acquire them. And I believe that is why you generally always have to overpay, because people like drafting “their” guys. Mike Y is by far the best player in the deal, but not the sole reason why I love this deal for Podstars. He also acquired 3 quality arms that are all mlb ready at a huge discount. Justus Sheffield as recent as 2019 was the mariners #1 prospect, scouting reports are good and he is ready to contribute. Alex Reyes has been toying with people for 5 years, major hype, major injuries. Eventually these guys tend to click…look at Urias in LA recently for a recent example. Touki Tousaant, another highly touted prospect who has lost his shine and may be headed to the bullpen, but you never know and they are good to stash and just see what happens.

Jorge Mateo had a decent 2019 in AAA, so maybe Coach really likes him. Maybe he is the next Mike Y to figure it out in his late 20’s.

It’s not absolutely horrible. Reyes and Toussant are guys that probably dont have a ton of trade value as they are total wildcards at this stage, but nice wildcards to have. Like I said its fairly hard to get anybody’s first round pick a few months before the draft without overpaying. And I do like this draft. But take a look at any draft and its littered with misses. Chances of getting a bonafide major leaguer at pick 8 are what 50%? getting an allstar 25%? I’d guess those numbers are too high. So when you can can trade a 1st round pick for an allstar caliber player and 3 former 1st round type talents near mlb ready, you probably should. The statistics here would favor Pine Mountain. Coach better make these picks count.

The other way to spin this…… Chaos traded away 2 bullpen arms, a mediocre SP prospect and a late blooming journeyman at his peak value to acquire two high picks which he will have cost controlled for years. That could be more accurate and that would likely be Chaos’s mindset. I’m just giving you a Hot take cause I know Coach Steve can handle it.

Trade: Suplex City I TBD

TBD gets:

Tyler Glasnow $7

Suplex City gets:

Brennan Davis
Ethan Small
Luis Matos
J Stiever
2021 pick 15 , 2nd rounder in 2022 and 1st rounder
in 2023

TBD can’t find a name, but he can find an ace. In the history of Dynasty Grinders he has successfully traded prospects for Jacob Degrom, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, I’m sure there are more. Lets go down memory lane one more time

July 2019

TBD acquires Verlander($50) midseason to strengthen his team for the playoff run. Gives up prospects Nick Solak, Dustin May, Jordyn Adams, Jordan Groshans, 2020 1st round pick

May 2017

TBD acquires Noah Synergaard ($82) for Yoan Moncada($1), Michael Kopech, Cal Quantrill, 2 2018 1st round picks

Good on Suplex City for letting it be known that he was ready to move on from Glasnow. Its an easy thing to do and It only helps to get multiple offers. If only Luke Weaver hit the trade block, i would have backed up the truck :). He did get quite the bounty here, I just worry it may be more quantity than quality. Brennan Davis and Ethan Small i guess are the top pieces and both have yet to play above A ball. Brennan Davis is highly rated on a few lists. Luis Matos looks like he could be a high ceiling guy, he was mainly in the Domincan Summer league as a 17 year old in 2019. Jonathan Stiever rated Whitesox 6th best prospect is mlb ready. So there could be some good quality here, its just years away and the risk is high with each piece. Not my ideal return for a $7 potential ace.

Glasnow is not Verlander or even Syndergaard in my mind. But opinions may vary, he just doesn’t have a track record of consistency. While some might not like the Rays way of dealing with pitchers in our format I think its a positive. If they cap you at 5 or 6 innings you lessen the chance of that solid outing turning mediocre after a tired pitcher gives up a HR in the 7th or 8th.

Congrats to TBD on getting a cheap quality SP. He has a way of keeping his emotions in check and parting with prospects that others may have a tendency to fall in love with and overrate. There is an argument to be made for quantity over quality. Prospects have a way of surprising you so getting a handful of high ceiling youngsters isn’t a bad strategy, But generally when looking back on these trades the guy getting the proven star player isn’t too disappointed, unless you realize that Noah Syndergaard had TJ surgery shortly after being acquired by TBD in 2017. Us TBD competitors would hate to see something like that occur again.

Trade: Pine Mountain Podstars I Suplex City

Suplex City

gets Lewis Brinson $5

Pine Mountain Podstars

gets Delvin Perez (prospect–kind of)

Well why waste time on this dumpster fire trade you ask? We are here to grind, and this is a grinders trade. And who doesn’t like a trip down memory lane. Buckle up!

2016 May

TBD sends Lewis Brinson. Amir Garrett, $7 Kyle Gibson and 2nd round pick to Haddy for Jacob Degrom, Steven Wright and a 4th round pick

Sorry Haddy! That stings!

2018 February

TBD acquired JD Martinez (who was a top 5 hitter) and 55 dollars for Lewis Brinson, Austin Hays, Adrain Morejon…..and thank goodness Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff saved the trade from disaster.

Just another cautionary tale . Know what your doing when acquiring prospects, as the odds are good that the shine wears off and your left with little.

Who knew there was somone out there who believed in Delvin Perez still? His 20 year old batting line in A ball was .269/.329/.325 and he had a BB/K rate of 27/117 in 458 AB. Not very good, but substanially better than his previous two years. But I’m sure he has some relatives holding out hope, just didn’t know we had one join our group recently.

Who knew there was anyone out there who believed in Lewis Brinson? All of us veterans of dynasty grinders……that’s who! Insert a solo of Ferns singing ….”I loved her first”.

Lewis Brinson is a dynasty grinder legend and lesson all wrapped into one. He was a heralded prospect that was a key piece in the above blockbusters He tore up AAA ball at age of 23 to a .331/.400/.561 line. He’s 26 now, coming off a .226/.268/.368 line. But he was a 5 tool prospect, and always will be.

2020
Back to reality. Of the two players I guess I prefer Lewis Brinson as he actually is in the league and Delvin Perez while 6 years younger just isn’t good at all. That being said I think I throw Lewis Brinson back into the auction and keep my $5. Maybe spend my last dollar on him at auction if I hear a report that he is in great shape and just got some contacts in spring training to correct a vision problem that was undetected.

Trade: Hustle | Suplex City

Luis Castillo throws seven scoreless innings, holds Phillies to four hits in 4-0 win

Hustle Loyalty and Respect trades away

Joey Bart – $0 cc
Francisco Morales– $0 cc
Heliot Ramos – $0 cc
Mitch Keller – $0 cc

Suplex City trades away

Luis Castillo – $15

Keeping up with the Jones? It’s a good trade for both teams, a rebuilding team and a team favorite to win it all in 2021. They both went out trying to improve their teams, and they did.

In the short 2020 season Luis Castillo averaged 36.3 FP/G in 12 starts. He’s the 14th best pitcher in the league and in 2019 he averaged 34.7 FP/G. The best part in the trade is Castillo is entering his prime at age 27 and has a salary of only $15. Hustle watched TBD acquire some valuable pieces since trading began. Hustle countered by picking up Castillo, a top 10 pitcher in our league and the MLB. Did Hustle over pay? Or is this the going price for cream-of-the-crop pitching, only time will tell.

Suplex City got four quality prospects and hopefully Joey Bart has found a home. In less than 30 hours Bart was traded three times. If my math is correct, in two days Suplex has added 13 minor league prospects. When he took over the team he only had one top 100 prospect and now according to the Senior Squids prospect spreadsheet they now have six top 100 prospects, good for them.

Joey Bart is Buster Posey’s replacement and should not have a problem finding playing time with a 50 hit tool and a 60 power tool.
Francisco Morales is still very young but with a 6’4″ frame who can hit 97 mph with the fastball and 70-grade slider, he’s going to be good.
Heliot Ramos, a 21 year old, has already made it to Double AA and is on the fast track to the majors, especially since the Giants are on a rebuild. In the Cal League in 2019 he had the 3rd best (143 wRC+). He’s a big guy with power and is very athletic.
Mitch Keller is slated to be the Pirates #2 pitcher and had a tough MLB debut with 7.13 ERA in 11 starts. However, in 2019 he posted 3.56 ERA at AAA. Keller is still only 24 and was a top 100 prospect coming out of Cedar Rapids IA. He will definitely have his opportunity with the always the rebuilding Pirates.

For the new owners, these draft reviews mean nothing or absolutely zilch and are just for fun. I used to take these reviews seriously, “crap, did I just screw up” DON”T worry about it. If you want a player go for it and hope for the best. Everyone values players differently like chocolate and vanilla ice cream or whatever flavor you like.

Finally, if you don’t value prospects you need to start yesterday, this is a dynasty league. The reason TBD and Hustle are always at the top of the standings is because they are great at prospecting and use their assets to make trades like this one. My advice is to start a prospect spreadsheet, the internet has plenty of free resources. Good trade by both teams.

Trade: TBD | Suplex City

He Won the World Series? Anthony Rendon Is Still Nonchalant - The New York Times

Suplex City trades away

Anthony Rendon – $57
2021 Draft Pick, Round 5 pick 4

TBD trades away

Casey Mize – $0 cc
Shane Baz – prospect
Yuli Gurriel – $10

Suplex City, I was happy to hear your positive feedback from the Trea Turner trade review. Keep those happy feelings in mind while you read this one.

Trading an elite bat for pitching prospects is a bad idea. Lets fast forward three years. Anthony Rendon is a stud offensive performer who is especially valuable in Dynasty Grinders because he has an elite wOBA. Casey Mize is… recovering from shoulder surgery? In the bullpen because he lacks fastball command? During his few starts in Detroit, Mize showed two elite out pitches, and a fastball that couldn’t find the zone. Maybe he figures it out and lives up to his billing as the 1-1 in the MLB draft. I hope so, because that is the Casey Mize you paid for. I’d like this trade more if Mize was a buy low, but I think you paid full price. This trade would make more sense if it was Kieboom, Mize, Gurriel. Then at least you get a bat that has a higher floor and mitigate some of the pitcher risk. Pretty sure Josh and Joe do the deal with Kieboom instead of Baz. Side bar, in a vacuum, I do like Baz, just not in this deal.

TBD cements themselves as the top contender headed into the 2021 season. Rendon is the best piece they’ve added today and it didn’t even hurt them to acquire him. Oh, and they got a 5th rounder because Rendon wasn’t enough on his own to part with two risky prospects and a 36 year old 1B.

Trade: Long Ball to LF | Marshall Law

Marshall Law trades away
SP Dinelson Lamet ($5; cost controlled)
RF Misael Urbina (prospect)
1B Pavin Smith (prospect)

Long Ball to LF trades away
SP Aaron Nola ($38)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

On the surface this trade looks lopsided. Aaron Nola is just 26-years-old, Steamer projects him as a top-15 overall pitcher in 2020, and he has consecutive 1,000+ point seasons on his resume. He checks every box as a top Dynasty Grinders asset (more on this in a moment). On the other side, there are two blah prospects and a spring training hype guy coming off Tommy John surgery who still carries a fair amount of reliever risk. This looks to be in favor of Marshall Law.

I do think it’s key to note the $33 savings here. This trade got Long Ball under $500 and that savings likely buys him at least another year of Kenta Maeda ($30), Michael Brantley ($29), or one of his higher priced pieces like Josh Donaldson ($77) or Zack Greinke ($67) that he’s been shopping. Those guys don’t show up in the Trade Accepted email, but they were no doubt a factor. My guess is, since Long Ball had listed all those guys on his trade block, there was zero interest across the board (because players that have salaries have cooties), so he ultimately sold whichever guy actually brought something back and that happened to be Nola. I’d argue the only “something” in this deal is Lamet, as the two prospects seem fairly disinteresting to me. Urbina is fine and has some long-term upside, Smith seems boring as a 1B-only with only 50 grade power. Whatever. It continuously blows my mind that upper tier players are traded in this league for churn-able prospects. Long Ball couldn’t get Vidal Brujan? Jazz Chisholm? As a rule of thumb, if a sub-$40 1,000 point player is traded, the prospects involved should really be guys Jordan has heard of before. Also, I probably would’ve rather just cut Maeda or Greinke or Brantley and kept Nola and missed out on Lamet. But the sum of Lamet plus whichever one of those guys would’ve been cut is probably close enough to Nola’s 2020 production to at least make the logical leap here.

I guess I’m mainly confused as to why a package headlined by Lamet and filled out by two prospects outside the top-250 was really the high offer.

Given Nola’s age, cost, and resume, he should’ve been coveted by literally every team, even the perpetual tankers. He was on the block publicly, so it’s not like his availability wasn’t known. I personally did not inquire on Nola, mainly because I’m sitting at $500 in keepers and The Bundle™ has ruined my mobility (weird how those rule changes that were met with such disgust ultimately did my team no favors), but I even sort of regret it now seeing this price. I could’ve probably afforded to punt a hitter to make room if push came to shove. If Long Ball waited until after auction, I would’ve probably thrown any prospects and picks he wanted at Nola and that terrifying $38 salary. Oh well.

How many other teams sat on the sidelines here? I guess people assumed the price would be too high and the mere thought of trading relevant prospects is unfathomable, but Urbina and Smith seem like fringe prospects at best right now. TBD and HLR will no doubt pick up far superior prospects for free throughout the season. Marshall will easily pick up better or comparable prospects to replace these guys himself. Even if Lamet meets his recent hype, Nola’s still likely to outscore him in 2020 and even teams like Senior Squids and We Talk Fantasy Sports and Who’s Your Haddy, who don’t intend to compete in the next half decade, should have been lining up here and could have probably beat this offer quite handily. You’re not getting a better asset than Nola at auction, so if that’s your game plan, good luck trying. If you were clinging to legitimate prospects out of fear of adding a whopping $38 in salary, well… whoops. And if you were out on Nola because you’re punting 2020, I guess I’m confused what the game plan is for 2021+ when you have no established good players in place when your prospects theoretically start getting promoted. The Bundle™ made Aaron Nola available for a low price and still no one with salary room took advantage? Hmm…

Overall, I like this deal for Marshall Law. If Lamet pans out, it probably buys Long Ball an extra player this year and next, maybe one more beyond that. For now I’ll gladly take the Nola side though.

Trade: Marshall Law | H-Town Trashcan Punch

Marshall Law trades away
SP Lance McCullers ($10)
2021 3rd Round Pick

H-Town Trashcan Punch trades away
SP Dylan Cease ($0; cost controlled)
C Danny Jansen ($1; cost controlled)
CF Alexander Canario (prospect; cost controlled)
CF Hedbert Perez (prospect; cost controlled)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

My immediate reaction to this trade is that it favored Marshall Law by a good margin, but it’s probably a lot closer than that.

A cost controlled, $0 Dylan Cease strikes me as the most valuable individual piece here. Lance McCullers strikes me as the best. In 453.2 actual major league innings, McCullers has posted a 10.1 K/9, 0.69 HR/9, and a 3.24 FIP. Those are fantastic numbers and he’s only 26, so there’s room for more. The obvious downside here is that he’s coming off Tommy John and has never thrown more than 128.1 IP in a season. There are big durability concerns (sore shoulder in 2016, two back injuries in 2017, a month on the DL with elbow pain and then eventually TJ in 2018) and question marks along the lines of: if your team gets to the playoffs, will he be around to pitch in them? Cease, meanwhile, was just okay last year in his first 73 big league innings. He walked too many guys and gave up too many homers, both red flags, but we’re still just talking about 73 innings. I feel like if every team submitted their best offers for McCullers and Cease, the offers for Cease would be better because of the cost control aspect. But at $10, McCullers is priced fine. If you’re placing a ton of value on a guy being $10 over $0 and cost controlled, I think you’re likely hung up on the wrong thing, especially when it comes to starting pitching. Quality starting pitchers under $15 or so, cost controlled or not, are super valuable assets.

For me, Jansen is the big wildcard here. A year ago he was something like a top-5 dynasty catching prospect. Now he’s a throw in? He did have a horrible offensive year, but catchers take time to acclimate and offense their defense takes priority over their offense at first. He’s still just 24, has 55 grades on his hit tool and power, and has no one really to steal time from him in Toronto. Marshall is clearly weak at catcher and took advantage of a buy-low opportunity.

The picks and prospects are whatever. I like Canario a lot and think if he was available in our minors draft, he likely goes toward the back of the first round or definitely by the middle of the second. He’s a ways off but there’s big upside. Hedbert Perez is a lotto ticket. The third round pick is borderline nothing, despite the fact people tripped over themselves to trade for them this year. Perez was just taken with the second pick of the fourth round, so I’d argue Perez/3rd rounder cancel each other out here in terms of value.

I guess to me, I’d rather have the Marshall Law side because it comes with more diversified dart throws. I’d probably rather have McCullers’ skills/major league resume than Cease’s, but the sum of the parts feels marginally greater on this one.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

Sometimes I don’t read the review above before mine, but I’m glad I did this time because I’ll try my best not to harp on too many points already made. I would also rather have Cease than McCullers, mostly because Cease was one of the very top pitching prospects last year and now seems like the perfect buy low post hype guy to acquire him for cheap. Cashing the Cease chip in, I’d want someone more reliable than Lance McCullers. Gun to my head, I guess I’d take McCullers over Cease for 2020, but pretty decent chance I die on that. It seems super close at least, and I think most would agree Cease’s long term upside is much more favorable at this point. At least with the Innings Limit weekly rule change, McCullers gains some more value because him not going super deep into games will be less harmful than it would have been on a weekly starts league.

I would rather have Canario than a 3rd round pick, I agree with Bailey’s assessment of where he would have went in this last draft. If Canario continues his upward trajectory, he’s probably close to a top 1st half 1st round pick next year, but there’s certainly a very good chance he stalls and is worth less than a 3rd next year. Either way, I’d rather have the Cease/Canario side than McCullers/3rd round pick side.

I think Bailey was being too polite when he said Jansen was a top 5 catching prospect for a moment. I’m pretty sure he was #1 or 2 with Keibert Ruiz not too long ago. I’m not sure this is a star player, but certainly a nice add on for Marshall as is Hedbert Perez who possesses some tremendous, albeit remote, upside. If these two pieces amount to nothing, it doesn’t seem to matter much, but I do believe at least one of these guys will probably be worth more than a throw in a year from now.

I think the rational side of analyzing this trade will come down to who is better between Cease and McCullers and nothing else matters, and I not only lean Cease but the lotto tickets Marshall acquired here seem to put it over the top for me, even if they become nothing. Either way, Marshall needed some minor league talent after the formal trade request of Jazz Chisholm.

It’s a Crapitol Shitty Type of Review

Marshall Law trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (JobuNeedsARefill)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Roberto Perez ($7)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Capital City Ironmen)

Hustle’s Toxic $.02: Marshall needed a catcher so he traded down in the 5th round (11 picks total) to get a $7 Roberto Perez. The price was basically free. So why not? Perez’ Streamer slash line is projected at 219/303/399 slash, which would be down from 239/321/452 of last year. If he regresses that much he might not be worth owning. His biggest asset is PAs at catcher, and currently he’s expected to get a decent amount. $7 in auction for Perez would be fine, last year Tucker Barnhart went for $23. That might not be the guide to guy by, but clearly shows some people’s desperation if it goes to auction. As bad as a $23 was for Barnhart, someone bid $22. This is a nice way to lock in some catcher PAs and Marshall was currently carrying a blank there, so this is a cheap fix. For Bailey? Moving up 11 picks in the 5th makes his farm just a bit stronger than it was before this trade. Congrats.

Organized Chaos trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Marshall Law)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 5 (JobuNeedsARefill)
Clayton Kershaw ($125)

Hustle’s Toxic $.02: First thought that comes to my mind when seeing this trade come in is remembering that Kershaw was traded straight up for a 5th round pick a couple months ago. So Bailey clearly profited here. Turned two 5th round picks into a 3rd. Somehow, his farm got even stronger. Back to back trades. His rebuild is hitting its stride here. Well done sir.

For Swinson, he gives up a 3rd round pick for a very overpriced Kershaw. If Kershaw gets thrown back in, he goes for a lot. Maybe 90, maybe 120, maybe more. A few teams have a lot of money heading into auction, Swinson basically made his purchase at the expense of a mid round pick. It seems good. Rounding out his budget with a high end pitcher seems smart with his roster, and if it doesn’t work out, he can probably get a pretty decent haul for a Kershaw rental. The only critique here is probably not getting on it earlier where as it might have only costed him a 4th or 5th, but that’s a minor point. Leaving auction money on the table is the worst thing you can do, and this ensures Swinson won’t.

Trumpa Loompas trades away
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Capital City Ironmen)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Wade Miley ($3)

Hustle’s Toxic $.02 Wade Miley was pretty useful in the first half last season and terrible in the second half. Trumpas picks up $3 pitcher for a 3rd round pick. With Innings Pitched instead of starts, Miley’s disaster games will hurt a little less. I wouldn’t bet on Miley to be a very good pitcher in 2020, especially heading to Great American Smallpark, but this also wasn’t a very big bet. I like this move to add SP depth for Trumpas.

Yet again, Bailey has made his farm stronger by getting a mid round pick. I’m in awe of the mobility he’s created in his rebuild. At this pace, by 2025, he might have a top 10 farm in Dynasty Grinders. Things are looking up!

The trade was for the 44th pick of the 2020 draft which has now been traded back and forth at least 4 times and is now back on Bailey’s team. The anticipation of whoever is picked here (likely Noah Song), will be through the roof come draft day! 21 days away!

Capital City Ironmen trades away
Julio Teheran $33)

Trumpa Loompas trades away
2021 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Trumpa Loompas)
2022 Draft Pick, Round 3 (Trumpa Loompas)

Just when I thought the nonsense was over, they bring me back in. Bailey is on a mission here with all these picks. 2 more 3rd rounders! He just bumped up his window in being a top 10 farm (maybe) by a full year. 2024.

For Trumpas, I think this is fine. Ideally you only give up one 3rd rounder here. Julio Teheran moving to a better pitchers park helps his value. $33 seems about what he’d go for in auction. If he goes for less, it wouldn’t be a tremendous amount. Trumpas adds some more depth to its rotation that was in dire need for it. Maybe seeing Kershaw go off the board earlier in the day inspired Trumpas to make his de facto auction purchase.

Even if I’m not optimistic about his chances for Tehran’s success in 2020, the price was low enough for the gamble. Other than the Kershaw deal, that seems to be the trend in all three of these.

Bailey got some trade sweetners and since we are expanding 5 spots through 2023, these third rounders will have some value going forward.

Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away
SP Steven Matz ($33)
3B Rylan Bannon (“prospect”)

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
2020 2nd Round Pick

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

I like this trade for We Talk Fantasy Sports because a second round pick is likely to amount to nothing*, although it is less likely to amount to nothing when made by Hustle Loyalty Respect (“the greatest fantasy baseball prospector of his generation” – Steve Fernsler, 2019), while Steven Matz will score points. So there’s that. I like that this move signals WTFS is at least trying to be competitive (bold and daring!) in 2020 instead of mailing it in. Maybe he should probably keep dumping mid-round picks for decent guys and see what happens. I feel like if you spend two random hours in June researching prospects, you can probably find a guy on waivers comparable to whoever you’d get in the second round anyway. I mean, I picked up Pedro Miguel Martinez from the free agent scrap heap and now he’s getting lots of hype on prospect Twitter and appearing on all the dynasty top-100 lists.

* The best second rounders in 2019 were renowned slap dick prospect Xavier Edwards (he will be a stud if we change our scoring to make stolen bases worth 50 points a piece), Tristan Casas, and Alek Thomas, and the latter is mostly valuable because he was traded straight up for a $22 player that scores 800+ points every year and now gets to play all his home games in baseball’s second friendliest hitter’s park. Wander Franco was a second rounder in 2018 though.

Anyway, the trade is fine overall, I will just take the side that is adding a player that will score points in 2020. Good job, Keith. Okay job, Jonny. Have a good day.