Tag: Hustle Loyalty Respect

Trade Review – Hustle Loyalty Respect and Eastbound and Dowd – Terry O’Neill edition

(Terry O’Neill pictured right)

 

Trade Review

 

To Hustle Loyalty Respect:

Giancarlo Stanton ($86 31 y.o. 5.83 ppg)

 

To Eastbound and Dowd:

Tyler O’Neill ($0 cc 26 y.o. 5.77 ppg)

$15 auction budget

 

TL;DR – HLR picks up an expensive and maybe declining outfield/util slot depth hoping for a hot streak while EAD picks up a solid and cheap guy looking at an above-average upside

This trade probably doesn’t happen if Ohtani is on the board earlier in the day.  This trade happened early on in the deals, and it made sense at the time.  EAD likely wasn’t keeping Stanton, and he made that clear when he referenced Stanton as being priced to move.  HLR hopped on the opportunity and grabbed Stanton for a guy I’d be okay with moving on from for the chance to win a title. After getting Stanton, HLR popped Ohtani late in the day and moved Stanton down his depth chart.

Let’s look at the HLR side. Full disclosure, I was in on Stanton, but my offer was well below the deal EAD accepted ( I offered two 2023 4ths and Jack Suwinski). Stanton probably would have been a pretty regular outfielder or utility slot guy for HLR before the Ohtani trade, and I think he will still slot in at the back end of HLR’s starting squad.  Stanton is having a down year from what he has accomplished in the past, but he is still above average and certainly capable of carrying a team if he gets hot. In looking at Stanton for trade talks, I was concerned by a few of his sliding metrics.  He is walking less than he has in his prime and the power output is down despite the exit velo data being about the same when he does make contact.  He was injured for almost all of 2019 and some of short 2020 season. That led me to devaluing him in terms of longevity as I didn’t see him as a keeper. I don’t think HLR does either. That said, I am always interested in grabbing a guy with the capability to put up 100+ in a week for a playoff run. With Stanton hitting the ball as hard as he ever has, he still has plenty in the tank. Any of the contenders could have done worse than adding Stanton. He has the same upside capability as Springer does for the final portion of the season, and I think the cost he paid to do it was fine.

As to the EAD side, Tyler O’Neill is currently an above average player who has a $0 salary under our cost-controlled system.  I’ve never been a fan of his, and I was surprised to see just how well he was doing.  I had seen his point totals, but I hadn’t looked under the hood. Scouting his stats, he his walking less, striking out more, and making as much or more hard contact as he ever has.  The massive jump in production has come from not only the career-high batting average but also the career high OPS. I don’t know enough about how xwOBA is calculated to figure out if the delta between O’Neill’s wOBA and xwOBA is meaningful, but his wOBA is .365 (25 pts higher than his 2018 high) and xwOBA is .399.  What does all this mean? I think, again based on stat-scouting, O’Neill has gotten more aggressive and is doing damage as a result. He is coming into his power-peak, so I have reason to believe his production this year is sustainable.  I’m one of those people who believe once a player has demonstrated a skill they own it, and I think O’Neill has had enough of a sample size this year to say he owns the profile he has demonstrated.  Sure, pitchers could change their approaches against him after this year’s data, but I think there has been enough opportunity for that this year that expecting 5.5-6 ppg going forward is a reasonable expectation for O’Neill, which makes him a value at his cost-controlled price.  I think this season is pretty close to his ceiling, so I wouldn’t hope for more as his owner.  I think there is a solid chance that O’Neill’s production regresses slightly after season, but, again, I’ve always been an O’Neill discounter. The best part about the EAD return is that O’Neill is not a prospect.  He has proven his MLB worth, and for a guy he was already moving on from, the return is just fine.  Side note, I thought O’Neill was clearly on roids. The swollen body and chubby cheeks were classic stereotypical body, but I was referred to his father’s body. His dad was a body builder, so the body makes more sense, but the fact that O’Neill wears his baseball pants as tight as yoga pants is still off-putting.  In any event, he’s a fine baseball player that I’d take over almost every prospect or pick surely offered for Stanton.

Haddy

 

 

 

Trade Review – Hustle Loyalty Respect and Senior Squids

To HLR:

George Springer ($70 31 y.o. 7.8 ppg)

Carlos Rodon ($15 28 y.o. 40.1 ppg)

 

To Senior Squids:

Oswald Peraza – prospect

Triston Casas – prospect

Marco Luciano – prospect

2022 WYH #1

2023 HLR #1

2023 PMP #2

 

TL;DR – Squids gets some really good prospects plus some picks while Hustle two of the current best players in the league.

What a way to start off the day!  I was instantly curious when I saw the notification come up… I was at a barbecue and had told Squids I was coming with an offer for Springer and Bassitt.  After seeing the offer, I didn’t feel too bad.  I was not coming close to the bid for what Hustle gave Squids.  Even more, I don’t think Hustle overpaid in the least.

Let’s look at Hustle’s acquisitions, which are substantial.  George Springer missed three months early this year, but he has more than made up for it with a career year since he got back. I would have kept him if I got him, and I know Squids was planning on keeping him, too.  Unless he got blown away with an offer, which he did. I was concerned about Springer after his off-2020, but he has gotten comfortable in Toronto quickly. He’s a top 4 hitter by game rate for those healthy, and he’ll likely be top 5 the rest of the way assuming health.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up 300 points for Hustle the rest of the way (including playoffs). Carlos Rodon hasn’t been bad himself.  I was way out on Rodon coming into the season, and I felt great at the draft when Rodon went for $15 two picks after I spend $15 on Kwang Hyun Kim.  I saw no upside in Rodon after six previous years of mediocrity.  Boy was I wrong.  What I didn’t know at the time was that Rodon was going to add over 2.5 mph to his fastball this year. He added the velo and decide he was going to throw it 5% more than ever before.  He bumped his whiffs nearly 5% this year, also.  He is just a different guy, and the results have followed.  He is nearly a top 5 pitcher by ppg (6th after considering the guys out or likely out for the balance of the fantasy season). He has a good shot at putting up 300 points through the end of the playoffs himself. He is all around incredible value at $15 – good on Squids for the acquisition at the draft and good on Hustle for having the capital to pay for his high value.  Here’s to hoping the velo gains hold. All told, Hustle likely obtained more than 100 pts over replacement for the rest of the season between the two players, and he can look forward to the same in the playoffs.  Those are the type of numbers that make a difference in the playoffs.

Squids received a lot in this trade.  All three prospects are easy top-100 fantasy prospects with Luciano headlining the return with Casas not far behind.  There’s not a lot I can say about Marco Luciano that you all don’t already know.  His approach, bat-to-ball, and power skills have all been on display despite only being 19 y.o.  He was just promoted to High-A last week, and Squids can look forward to him likely holding down 3B for a decade starting in 2023.  Triston Casas is another very highly ranked hitting prospect.  He’s at AA this year, and he had some time off for the Olympics. His approach and bat-to-ball skills have been on display at AA, but the power numbers have been lacking a little.  I’m not worried about the power eventually showing up, as he is a little young for AA as it is.  Owald Peraza was a guy I coveted in the minors draft last year, and I told Hustle that when he beat me to the punch on drafting Peraza. I thought he was unfairly pinned with a no-power tag and some of that power has been on display this year. He was quickly promoted from High-A to AA in June, and he has mostly held his own as a guy who is young for the level. The sample of 232 PAs from AA shows a bigger K-BB% than I’d like to see in a guy without above average power, but he has hit for a high average that isn’t completely lacking in pop. The draft picks will all likely be between 10-26 in their respective years which means Squids will have some good opportunities to grab impact guys. I think all three players acquired by Squids will have average or above big league production, making his acquisition substantial.

I think both teams did a lot of good for themselves with this deal.

Haddy

 

 

 

Trade Review – Hustle Loyalty Respect & Eastbound and Dowd

To HLR:

Max Scherzer ($100 37 y.o. 37.2 ppg)

Mike Moustakas ($25 32 y.o. 4.7 ppg)

 

To Eastbound and Dowd:

Stephen Strasburg ($75 33 y.o. 17.9 ppg)

Patrick Corbin ($26 32 y.o. 19.45 ppg)

Brennen Davis – prospect

Edward Cabrera – prospect

Ezequiel Duran – prospect

2022 #1 from HLR – projecting for 13-16 overall

2022 #2 from HLR – projecting for 29-32 overall

 

TL;DR – HLR gets a top-10 pitcher for Brennen Davis

Hooray for the trade deadline in DG heating up!  Hopefully we end with a flurry by Friday similar to the MLB deadline this year.  If you were looking for a trade that has it all, we almost got it here.  Old stars, injured stars, high-end prospects, meh prospects, and picks for yet-unknown prospects.  For me, this trade boils down to Max Scherzer for Brennen Davis.

Let’s look at the HLR side. He gets the 10th or so best starter left standing by ppg (Glasnow is toast, deGrom/Bauer/Kershaw are likely toast with him, and Bieber is maybe back in August), and a guy who has shown up every 5th day since 2009 with the exception of only 27 starts in 2019.  Seriously, Scherzer is an ironman, even despite some back issues he had a couple years ago that I thought signaled his decline (wrong again, Aaron).  Scherzer represents a much-needed replacement for Kershaw on HLR’s squad, particularly with HLR’s overall points lead gap closing. Max is a stud and worth every penny of his $100 salary.  HLR’s roster construction has allowed him to be able to take Max on without concern of having to sell Kershaw in the offseason. HLR likely gets value from Scherzer the next couple years as Scherzer ages out of baseball.  Moustakas is a non-factor for me – HLR likely cuts him in the offseason and hopes for lightning in a bottle when Moustakas comes back from a heel injury that cost him nearly three months.  It’s been a couple years since Moustakas has been above fantasy replacement level, but he’ll always have that 6 ppg year in Milwaukee.

As for the E&D side, he gets Davis with an expensive lotto ticket, a less expensive lotto ticket, and a bunch of cheap ones.  Brennen Davis is hopefully as awesome as his AA stats from this year.  He destroyed High-A pitching this year in a short stint before continuing the hitting clinic at AA.  His power has showed out along with an elevated walk rate – his K-rate has also spiked but has been more than offset by the damage he is doing.  He’s only in AA, but his 2021 updated midseason rankings of anywhere from 9-17 on the outlets I’ve seen reflect the strength of the gains he has made.  He still has to prove he can do it with the big boys, but he appears likely to have a high floor to go along with his high ceiling.  Unfortunately for E&D, my excitement at his return ends here.  Strasburg underwent thoracic outlet surgery, something I thought was a death sentence for pitchers.  Turns out there is a recent study (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33472488/) with a small sample size (27) that says 74% of pitchers undergoing the procedure return to MLB performance with a range of 105-638 days to return. The study tried to quantify performance upon return and found similar returns of fastball velo and control but lesser returns in ERA performance (3.66 ERA pre-surgery to 4.50 ERA post-surgery). Even with all the issues ERA represents, I think the nearly-one run delta between pre- and post-surgery tells us what we need to know about effectiveness.  I don’t think E&D acquires Strasburg if he doesn’t plan on keeping him, but the large salaries of $117 invested in Harper and $86 in Stanton add up to a salary cap crunch that will require some ingenuity to solve, particularly so considering the significant pitching needs E&D has to fill.  Corbin has been bitten by HR issues badly this year.  Health and velo remain on his side, but his pitch effectiveness has significantly deteriorated from his stellar 2018 and 2019 seasons. His fastball effectiveness in particular has significantly declined this year despite gaining velo, which is interesting. Despite the bad results with the fastball, he is throwing it more than ever before so maybe he knows something we don’t.  Either way, he has been bad but is probably another keeper at $26 for a pitching starved E&D.  Here’s to hoping for a bounceback or a move to Tampa so they can fix him. Edward Cabrera is a sexy name who made big gains over the pandemic year and rose on lots of lists.  Fangraphs says his secondary pitches made big jumps which led to the lessening of the dreaded reliever risk.  He moved up to AAA in the middle of July after a solid 26 innings at AA and immediately stopped throwing strikes, which is probably fixable.  That said, I don’t like the fact that he has not pitched over 100 innings in a season despite 6 years of minor league baseball due to various injuries that have popped up.  Sure, Miami is a pitching development haven, but even they can’t put Humpty back together again. MiLB is littered with the bodies of electric arms who couldn’t stay on the mound. Duran is a 100-150 ranked guy who has been comped to Dan Uggla. Uggla was not a fantasy star in this format, and he exceeded replacement level twice in his career.  The two picks are nice to have but hard to evaluate who may be out there in the 13-16 ranges and 29-32 ranges of the draft. Ultimately, E&D is going to love running Davis out there everyday for six years as a cost-controlled (hopefully) stud. Will it be in time to contribute to his currently assembled stars of Harper, Stanton, Cruz, Story, and more?  I guess we’ll see.

Haddy (Who’s Your Haddy?)

Trade: Brew Crew | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Blue Jays' Ryu Hyun-jin to stay in Florida for training

 

Brew Crew trades away

  • Hyun Jin Ryu – $20
  • Oneil Cruz – prospect

 

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

 

Just going to give you my thoughts here without the typical effort of looking up stats and what not. Call it a first impression review. No hustle , but mad respect.

The Brew Crew tear down continues, but I really like this trade for the Brew Crew. H. Ryu was good last year in his first year for the Jays and he was good the year before with the Dodgers. Odds of him being healthy for a full season again?? I haven’t looked but I’m guessing he hasn’t had two full healthy seasons in a row. Maybe he is over his injury woes , but pitchers of this ilk are the ones you want to trade while the value is there. He is not the guy a rebuilding team should wait on and trade midseason, as his value could vanish quicker than your employment during a pandemic.

Matt Manning is the main reason I like this trade as he is a solid high ceiling pitching prospect who is getting close to major league time. Getting a top prospect from Hustle is no easy task, as he is tighter than an Otters pocket with his quality prospects. Rob Ray I think is more valuable under our new rules than the previous 7 start rule. The Jays will keep his starts to 5 IP most of the time , and I think he will be a good points per innings pitcher. Good buy low., under the old rules of 7 starts these pitchers don’t have as much value. Better to get a Robbie Ray and hope for a bounce back, then some B level prospect.

Ryu is obviously going to be a near elite pitcher when healthy and Hustle is hoping for that and paying for that here. All pitchers are injury risks, but i think Ryu would be high up on my personal list of risky pitchers. Oneil Cruz is in some legal trouble, high ceiling but for some reason he reminds me of Dominic Brown, maybe too long and lengthy to put a consistent swing together. A good flier for hustle; however, he was drafted by the bottom dwelling Foundation so can he really be called a prospect.

Hustle gets better, the rebuild gets some juice. Nice trade guys.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Crapitol Shitty Income

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away
2023 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Hustle Loyalty Respect)

Capital City Ironmen trades away
2023 Draft Pick, Round 5 (Capital City Ironmen)

 

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

I anticipate that my team places better than Bailey’s in 2022 because a lot of his guys will have retired, thus I’d like to lock in a slightly better pick. It was announced that 2023 is the last expansion draft of our minor leaguers, so a 5th rounder will have some value.

BAILEY’s thoughts

I expect that my team will be better than Hustle’s in 2022 because I anticipate Nelson Cruz scoring 1,000 points per season well into his mid-50’s. Worst case, Hustle will end up with the higher pick and draft a prospect better than me, which honestly hurts me less than it does the teams who are hellbent on rebuilding despite having worse farm systems AND major league rosters than Hustle already has.

 

BAILEY’S Nonsense

Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away
SP Steven Matz ($33)
3B Rylan Bannon (“prospect”)

We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
2020 2nd Round Pick

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

I like this trade for We Talk Fantasy Sports because a second round pick is likely to amount to nothing*, although it is less likely to amount to nothing when made by Hustle Loyalty Respect (“the greatest fantasy baseball prospector of his generation” – Steve Fernsler, 2019), while Steven Matz will score points. So there’s that. I like that this move signals WTFS is at least trying to be competitive (bold and daring!) in 2020 instead of mailing it in. Maybe he should probably keep dumping mid-round picks for decent guys and see what happens. I feel like if you spend two random hours in June researching prospects, you can probably find a guy on waivers comparable to whoever you’d get in the second round anyway. I mean, I picked up Pedro Miguel Martinez from the free agent scrap heap and now he’s getting lots of hype on prospect Twitter and appearing on all the dynasty top-100 lists.

* The best second rounders in 2019 were renowned slap dick prospect Xavier Edwards (he will be a stud if we change our scoring to make stolen bases worth 50 points a piece), Tristan Casas, and Alek Thomas, and the latter is mostly valuable because he was traded straight up for a $22 player that scores 800+ points every year and now gets to play all his home games in baseball’s second friendliest hitter’s park. Wander Franco was a second rounder in 2018 though.

Anyway, the trade is fine overall, I will just take the side that is adding a player that will score points in 2020. Good job, Keith. Okay job, Jonny. Have a good day.

 

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Organized Chaos

Organized Chaos trades away

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • SS Carlos Correa ($89)
  • SP Ian Anderson (prospect)
  • 2020 2nd Round Pick

Jordan’s Thoughts

I think most people look at trades and shake out roughly how they value players going each direction. Freddie Freeman is a great player at a valuable price. Carlos Correa is arguably a better player, at a more expensive price, however he spent half of this year hurt and he seems to be far from reliable.

Dansby Swanson is 25 years old now and just finished his 3rd straight professional season as a below average hitter. Dansby shows flashes of his capability as a hitter. But, I’m not as high on his future as some others are. If Swanson wasn’t a first overall draft pick, I’m certain people would have moved on from his status already.

Where do you land on Ian Anderson? As someone who’s traded him before. You kind of hate to lose the potential he brings. But, you know its fleeting. I think its way too early to truly call out a winner here for either side. I think given the contexts of each of the teams. I slightly prefer betting on Correa. That’s a gamble at best.

I guess at the end of the day I would have considered Freddie Freeman pretty much untradeable. He’s such a sturdy player to build around. Correa can be better. Ian Anderson might legendary. Fun trade!

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

So where Hustle Loyalty Respect is seemingly giving points away by downgrading from Carlos Correa to Dansby Swanson, he’s also more than making up for that by going to Freddie Freeman from… uh, Garrett Cooper… as his 1Bman. To me, the gap between Correa and Swanson is palatable, especially when you bake in injury histories. The gap between Freeman and Cooper is enormous. Also HLR is saving $13, which is not quite nothing but mostly nothing. It also cost a pretty good pitching prospect and a 2nd round pick, so there’s that. I do know that lots of people have wanted Ian Anderson in trade in the last year or so. Ditto for Freeman. One interesting angle: HLR has had Correa on the trade block forever and he never got moved. Freeman, as best I can remember, has been untouchable. So I think out of Freeman and Correa, Freeman’s been the more coveted asset leaguewide, probably.

Anyway, ballparking it, I’d guess this is something like a 300-400 uptick in 2020 projected points for HLR. Possibly more. It’s a pretty big short-term win, I think. My numbers could also be way off because I did no actual math, yay!

For Organized Chaos, it’s weird in the sense that it subtracts that same amount of points and brings on a super high salary and I’m not totally sure why. If you’re giving up that many points, it signals you’re punting in 2020, but if you’re punting in 2020, Correa’s a weird guy to look to build around for 2021 just based on salary and how the league tends to view high salaries. He’s a great player if he’s giving you 7 points a game at $100 or whatever to keep, fine. My concern is that he’s played in just one full season and only played in 75 this year. Just strikes me as a big investment of talent and salary poured into a player that might not actually be reliable.

My guess would be that Chaos feels like sliding Pete Alonso from UT to 1B and then filling SS with Correa is his best bet moving forward in terms of filling his lineup and having flexibility. I’d still rather have the Freeman/Swanson side here and I don’t honestly think it’s too close, salaries and all that hoopla considered. I wonder what Chaos does from here. I feel like he needs to go add more pieces now.

Trade: Marshall Law | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Marshall Law trades away

  • 3B Nolan Jones

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • 1B Luke Voit ($9)

BAILEY’s Thoughts

This one seems alright to me.

Marshall Law needed a 1Bman and has a bunch of prospect bullets collecting dust, so he fired one off to add someone that will actually score points. Voit’s been a great hitter for the Yankees and he’s cheap to keep at $9, but there are some concerns. The Yankees traded for Edwin Encarnacion (who is a pending free agent) and then left Voit off their ALCS roster, though that may have been injury related. They also always seem to be in the rumor mill for 1Bman help. I have some slight concerns about playing time. If Voit’s a part time player, he’s still valuable given his skills and price, but that value comes down a bit.

Nolan Jones is a prospect I really like but there are concerns with him too. Can he hit for power? Can he show more aggressiveness and cut down on the strikeouts? Who knows? Personally, I’d rather have him than Voit, but I generally just think it’s fairly easy to find suitable 1Bman production and happen to like this one prospect. In a league where Austin Riley, a semi-comparable 3Bman prospect to Jones, was inexplicably traded for Mookie Betts, at least this Jones-for-Voit swap seems somewhat in line with the prospect’s value. If it were a similar but different prospect than Jones here, I might just prefer the Voit side.

In closing, congrats to Marshall Law for pushing a chip and making a concerted effort to compete in 2020. Also congrats to Hustle Loyalty Respect on improving probably the strongest farm in DG without having to tank multiple seasons to do it. Loaded, more than loaded………………………. If you’re looking to trade for prospects HLR is the place to go. Beware HLR is a hustler and values his prospects and in a few years his team is going to be killing it. Hustle is going to win many championships if you believe in building from the bottom up. Truly inspiring stuff here.

Trade: Organized Chaos | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Organized Chaos trades away

  • 2B/SS/CF Garrett Hampson ($0)

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • 3B Colton Welker (prospect)

BAILEY’s Thoughts

Overall this seems okay. If you were looking at a prospect list, these guys are probably close to one another on it. Especially if its tailored to our league, since Hampson would otherwise get a bump in leagues where SBs are worth as much as HR.

Still, I prefer the HLR side getting Hampson. He closed out September/October with a .378 wOBA in the actual major leagues (points now > points in 2021) and at three premium positions while Welker was just okay in AA. I think Welker may even be a 1B now. He’s not a 3B in Colorado with Nolan Arenado there, that’s for sure.

So if the prospects are basically a coin flip, give me the one that’s going to score points sooner and offer more versatility to my team.

LEAVITT’s Thoughts

Wow I like this trade for Hustle. I wish I had seen Hampson on the trade block I would have inquired. Multiple positions (the good ones too). Cost controlled and had good end to the season.

KYLE’s Thoughts

Agreed.

HUSTLE’s Thoughts

He’s on the trade block right now  if either of you are interested

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Trumpa Loompas

Trumpa Loompas trades away

  • 2020 1st Round Pick

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

BAILEY’s Thoughts

So in order to move from the 12th pick to the 4th pick, HLR paid Marcell Ozuna and Jake Odorizzi at $36 of salary. So two quite good pieces, at decent prices, in order to lock up one of Rutschman, Vaughn, Witt Jr., or Abrams. Seems good to me considering HLR needs to trim down salary anyway (I think, I’d need to double check with Elton, the league’s unofficial auction budget monitor). HLR’s farm theoretically gets stronger, which is amusing given he didn’t tank to do it. In fact, HLR has tanked only once, and that was in the 2017 League Championship match-up.

Anyway, I think Trumpas “wins” this deal. Congrats.

At this point in the league, it makes sense to me for Trumpas to start pushing whatever chips to aggressively try to improve. Not to be too toxic but, like, how many years of irrelevance did 2019 make?  There’s like eight teams who currently are or previously have torn down for prospects. How does being the ninth provide a path to compete? The easiest path is something like this, where by moving down in the draft you get a slightly worse prospect so you’re still in position to add young cost controlled talent, but you add a solid starting LFman and a decent SPman to score you points now. Trumpas had the lowest scoring offense AND pitching last year. There’s no singular need here. This squad just needs good players and in this deal, they got two and essentially paid nothing that is or was going to score for them for… a while. It’s smart. And this wasn’t even taking on huge salaries for a year to try and quickly make an impact. Both Ozuna and Odorizzi have long-term value.