Trade: Pine Mountain Podstars I Suplex City

 

Suplex City

gets Lewis Brinson $5

Pine Mountain Podstars

gets Delvin Perez (prospect–kind of)

Well why waste time on this dumpster fire trade you ask? We are here to grind, and this is a grinders trade.  And who doesn’t like a trip down memory lane. Buckle up!

2016  May

TBD sends Lewis Brinson. Amir Garrett, $7 Kyle Gibson and 2nd round pick to Haddy for Jacob Degrom, Steven Wright and a 4th round pick

Sorry Haddy! That stings!

2018 February

TBD acquired JD Martinez (who was a top 5 hitter) and 55 dollars for Lewis Brinson, Austin Hays, Adrain Morejon…..and thank goodness Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff saved the trade from disaster.

Just another cautionary tale . Know what your doing when acquiring prospects, as the odds are good that the shine wears off and your left with little.

Who knew there was somone out there who believed in Delvin Perez still? His 20 year old batting line in A ball was .269/.329/.325 and he had a BB/K rate of 27/117 in 458 AB. Not very good, but substanially better than his previous two years. But I’m sure he has some relatives holding out hope, just didn’t know we had one join our group recently.

Who knew there was anyone out there who believed in Lewis Brinson? All of us veterans of dynasty grinders……that’s who! Insert a solo of Ferns singing ….”I loved her first”.

Lewis Brinson is a dynasty grinder legend and lesson all wrapped into one. He was a heralded prospect that was a key piece in the above  blockbusters  He tore up AAA ball at age of 23 to a .331/.400/.561 line. He’s 26 now, coming off a .226/.268/.368 line. But he was a 5 tool prospect, and always will be. 


2020
Back to reality. Of the two players I guess I prefer Lewis Brinson as he actually is in the league and Delvin Perez while 6 years younger just isn’t good at all. That being said I think I throw Lewis Brinson back into the auction and keep my $5. Maybe spend my last dollar on him at auction if I hear a report that he is in great shape and just got some contacts in spring training to correct a vision problem that was undetected. 

Trade: Suplex City | Pine Mountain Podstars

New York Yankees: Luis Severino to throw off mound soon

 

Suplex City trades away

Pine Mountain Podstars trades away

 

Trades like this typically favor the team that gets the best player, and that player here is Luis Severino. If he can return to form following his surgery, this is a win for the Podstars. Adding Sevy to a rotation that already includes Buehler, Snell, and Woodruff gives him one of the strongest in the league. Sadly, we probably won’t see Sevy back on the mound until the end of 2021, but this is a good get nonetheless. Bryse Wilson is a nice flier, but in a Braves rotation that recently added Morton and Smyly, he is destined for long relief and a few spot starts. He could be a trade chip if the Braves go all in, for now he’s a wait and see. Polanco is barely worth a mention, I had him penciled in as a cut because of his $24 salary.

Suplex City gets himself a smattering of buy-lows here. I like Laureano and Civale the most of this group. Civale is a command pitcher, but he’s with Cleveland so they’ll probably make him into a stud. At $8, I like that risk. Laureano still has some questions with the bat but the glove will keep him in that lineup for the foreseeable future. Kyle Gibson and Ryan McMahon are both guys who came up with lots of promise, but we just haven’t seen their skill translate to the majors. Gibson has good stuff but is inconsistent and McMahon is with the Rockies. Suplex will get some value out of Joey Bart. The Giants have said they’ll play him at 1B when Posey is catching, so maybe he can avoid the typical downside to being an everyday catcher. This will put a lot of pressure on the bat, which I don’t think is good enough for a right handed first baseman.

 

Trade: The Process | Who’s Your Haddy?

Image result for hunter pence

 

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Gibson, Kyle $15
  • Pence, Hunter $5.50

The Process trades away

  • Trammell, Taylor (prospect)
  • La Stella, Tommy $5.50

Jordan’s Thoughts

Ferns continues his all in push by swapping out this year’s Justin Turner break out candidate Tommy La Stella who just broke his leg for two useful pieces. La Stella poses to be an easy keeper into next year even if he gets greeded significantly.

Hunter Pence found a time machine back to his 2011 former self and has been hitting a .393 wOBA with a 142 wRC+. But, he’s hurt. Will the magic rebirth fade away? Who knows.

Kyle Gibson has given up a few extra homers this year, but has walked more than a batter less per nine innings. He’s getting better, and if the home run rate regresses for him, he’s a legit top end pitcher for fantasy purposes. However, in 2019’s home run setting, Gibson is merely above average.

Taylor Trammel is a top 10 prospect and a pretty significant price to pay for Pence and Gibson. Trammel isn’t exactly lighting up the minor leagues, but he’s moving up at a reasonable rate and he has incredible plate discipline.

I like the trade for both teams. Ferns isn’t making this deal if La Stella isn’t hurt. Sometimes those kinds of things happen and force some action. Pence’s long term value is little at best, but Kyle Gibson has been slowly ascending tiers. I prefer Haddy’s side all said and done, but barely.

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

Value wise, this trade really does seem fine. I like it for both teams. Hunter Pence is something again, but clearly has overachieved and not counting on him for next season seems like a no brainer decision for Haddy, even if that one somehow backfires. For Ferns, he’s a useful OF/UTIL piece rest of a season with the potential to keep cheaply.

Kyle Gibson as a sub $20 keeper next year is an underrated asset.  He’s depth to Ferns rotation now and an easy unexciting keep.  The auction will be slightly better this year, but if you think you’re picking up multiple solid SP options in the 2020 season, you’re probably wrong.  If you think you’re going to win good cheap SP options in the 2020 auction for 2021, you’re almost definitely wrong.  I’ve had cap space in the 2017/2018 auctions and went after pitching and don’t think anyone ended up on my team the year after from those picks. Not to say it hasn’t or can’t be done, but it’s quite difficult and flukey.  Haddy is thin on SP and this makes his rotation for next year even thinner.  With a lot of budget, just keeping Gibson and needing one less SPs makes some sense.

“Tommy La Stella’s injury is a crushing blow to The Process” is a sentence I never thought I’d be saying non-sarcastically. But I did. If La Stella is the new Justin Turner, that certainly favors Haddy’s side here.  Much like with his Montas acquisition, who knows if they are truly for real. I actually dont hate getting both those guys for Haddy at all. They were cheaper to acquire than sexy minor leaguers, are very cheap, and are major league ready. If Montas and La Stella are even close to what we’ve seen this year, it will really jumpstart his rebuild.

As I have told Bailey well before this trade was made, I believe Taylor Trammel’s best use in an ottoneu points themed league is for tradebait.  He seems like a major leaguer one day, but I’m having trouble seeing him anything more than a servicable starter. He just seems like a better real life player or for a league that counts steals. His name surpasses his value here, and even after I take this minor poop on him, Haddy should have no trouble trading him for someone more useful to him. He’s on lists, he’s a dude, he’s tradebait.

 

 

Trade: TBD | Who’s Your Haddy?

TBD sends: SP Kyle Gibson ($7), CF Lewis Brinson (minors), SP Amir Garrett (minors), 2017 2nd Round Pick
Who’s Your Haddy? sends: SP Jacob deGrom ($64), SP Steven Wright (FA), 2017 4th Round Pick

Andrew’s thoughts: Man, where to begin?

I guess it makes sense to link to the Johnny Cueto trade from over the weekend, because I think he and deGrom are close to the same guy. deGrom costs $4 more and is younger, but Cueto has the longer track record and is having the better season (by like 10 points/start) so far. For the sake of argument, I think we can just call them equals.

In that light, this trade comes up a bit short for Haddy, I think. Cueto netted a viable replacement for him in James Shields, two top-25 prospects, and a 1st round pick. deGrom brought back an okay starter in Kyle Gibson, who isn’t better than Shields but does cost $21 less, but he also tossed in Steven Wright so it kind of nullifies getting back Gibson. He also gets a top-15 or so prospect in Brinson (9th in our draft), and a top… I don’t know — 75? — prospect in Garrett (he went 83rd in our draft), plus a 2nd rounder. Compare that to the Cueto return. I guess what I’m saying is, deGrom appears to have been sold at less than market value. Anything can happen with prospects. Who knows? But that’s how I see it today.

For Haddy, I think getting back the blue chipper Brinson is a big deal. I know TBD was reluctant to deal him at all, but if you want big time pitching you simply have to be willing to part with big time pieces. TBD’s been shopping their $10 Max Kepler for pitching for a while and the writing there just appeared to be on the wall. No one’s paying $10 and a premium pitcher for Kepler, without the cost control benefit of other prospects, to sit in their minors.

Brinson is a great get though. I’m less sold on Garrett. Baseball Prospectus ranked him 77th, Baseball America has him 73rd, and MLB.com slots him in at 65th. Rankings aren’t gospel and we should all probably discredit them more than we do, but Garrett’s the second piece here, right? He just doesn’t seem like a big enough Player B in a deal to land deGrom. A lot of the scouting reports I’ve read of Garrett say he could end up in the bullpen and if that happens, that’s a big loss for Haddy. There’s certainly upside if he sticks as a starter, but it’s a risky profile.

As I mentioned, Wright and Gibson more or less cancel each other out. I’d rather have Gibson personally, but both guys are just rotational filler.

I think, just like Haddy’s other deal, I come away feeling like a piece is missing. I try to look at picks less as rounds and more as where the pick will be, and in my deal for Cueto I got what is likely the 14-16th overall pick. Team Hydra’s 2nd rounder could realistically end up being 17th-20th or so, in which case the two picks are essentially the same. Never the less, I think Haddy should’ve pried a 1st away instead of a 2nd. I think that’s a small price for TBD to pay to get deGrom on their roster and for Haddy, every extra asset helps.

TBD looks so much stronger after this deal. The benefit of trading minor leaguers is that it does nothing to weaken your team today, so essentially TBD added deGrom without giving anything up (there’s a word for that, I think it starts with an “f,” but I can’t think of it; maybe I’ll peruse our Slack chat to see if anyone’s used this word?). That’s big. Aside from Madison Bumgarner, TBD’s pitching was kind of a mess, so this really helps to stabilize that. It seems possible that we look back at this trade in September and credit it for thrusting TBD into a postseason spot.

Jordan’s thoughts: I’m actually going to disagree with Bailey here some. I think Haddy got a good price for deGrom here. I know he references his own trade with Cueto, and he’s not wrong in what he got. But, I am not sure that trade exists a second time in this market. I think Bailey got more value for Cueto than he should have, and this deal looks more in line with where I had players valued in my head.

TBD needed this piece and did pay a significant price to get it done. Brinson is a known quality prospect. Garrett less so, but I’m higher on him than Bailey was above. Garrett in 7 AA starts this year is killing it. I’d be shocked to see Garrett not climb those arbitrary lists that Bailey references.

Bailey references that there’s a piece missing. I’m not really sure. Brinson was one of the top minor league qualified prospects in our league, Garrett is a solid prospect worth paying attention to and we’ve both written about Gibson before in how he can be useful.

I actually like this trade for both teams. If you’re TBD you needed the ace capable pitcher. If you’re Haddy you need these assets. I think its a win win for both sides.

Trade: TBD | Team Hydra

TBD sends: LF,CF Kevin Pillar ($5)
Team Hydra sends: P Kyle Gibson ($7)

Jordan’s thoughts: Here is finally a trade that I feel pretty strongly about the results. I think Kevin Pillar is a fine player. He’s a borderline starter in CF and in LF. He plays everyday. All of this is fine and good. But, he’s really not really a prize. He’s started this season off with a slow 3.05 points per game average. There’s not a lot to love. Granted Team Hydra has been spending the last two weeks trying to replace AJ Pollock with about anything that moves.

The reason I’m so down on Hydra for making this swap is that I believe Kyle Gibson has a lot to offer. Gibson had 16 starts last year where he pitched over 30 points. Touching 56 once. He did have two meltdown starts, but his floor is relatively high with potential to be good or even great. This is the kind of pitcher in my opinion that has a gross amount of value because he is serviceable in basically any week you need him, but he profiles as a guy that can improve slightly and be a consistently good pitcher.

This isn’t to say that Pillar can’t do the same things in center, but I just don’t like getting a borderline hitter for a pitcher who can score you points. Injuries make you do funny things, but I think this trade was desperate by the wrong team.

Andrew’s thoughts: I’m with Jordan. I don’t like it much for Hydra.

The context is really important: TBD had six starts heading into Sunday, so they needed to quickly acquire a seventh or just go without. In my experience, teams who have an extra start on Sunday think this gives them leverage to deal, when usually it just leads to a hasty move.

As Jordan mentioned, Kevin Pillar is fine. He hits atop a strong lineup and his defense will keep him in there. Sometimes, just playing every day carries weight. But he’s not particularly good hitter, posting just .310 wOBA last year. That needs to improve significantly for him to be anything other than a serviceable bench option.

Kyle Gibson, meanwhile, is as boring as they come but considerably more valuable. If a league average starter scores you between 24-25 points per start, Gibson’s been above that two years running. He averaged 25.39 in 2014 and 26.38 last year. He’s not setting the world on fire and probably doesn’t have much more development to do, but a slightly above average pitcher is significantly more useful than an average at best outfielder.

On Sunday, Hydra dropped Austin Jackson, who plays CF/RF and had a .305 wOBA last year. He’s older than Pillar, but the profile is almost identical. So in a roundabout way, you could argue that Gibson was just erased from Hydra’s roster and centerfield was left exactly as is.

Dynasty Grinders Podcast – Episode 14

Bailey and I got together during Sunday afternoon’s games to review week 2. It was almost in the books, so we reviewed it anyway. We discuss the Kyle Gibson trade, Matt Moore and his resurgence. Is Mike Trout okay? Relievers are swinging match-ups. We look at Senior Squid’s roster and how he could optimize with a trade or two. Seven of the eight match-ups this week could have changed by time the podcast gets posted, it was that close in every single one of them.

2016 Auction Review – Team Hydra

Team Hydra

hydra

Hail Hydra! Buster Posey could end up being the steal of the entire draft. A player who’s easy guess for the best player at their position, top 30 hitter and should get extra playing time compared to his peers, all for under $50. Awesome. But why the backup catcher? Silly. Hitting on this team is top notch, full of value. Pitching was left on the cutting room floor apparently, and what value that was gained, was overspent on some reaches.

Hitting – Very Good

Posey, Prince Fielder, Nolan Arenado, AJ Pollock and Nelson Cruz are a great core of hitters. That is not something many should be able to argue against. All of them except for Posey, because of his limited playing time, are candidates for 1,000 point seasons, and possible top ten hitters. It could happen that they all do. After that it becomes much more dicey. The extra money spent on Jonathan Lucroy to be a utility man hurts. DJ LeMahieu is alright, Domingo Santana seems like a reach. Marcus Semien was another guy I thought was special last year, less special this year. This line is going to be hard to deal with as an opponent as those homers fly over the fence.

Pitching – Not Quite

David Price! Yes you have your ace. The only bad things you can say about him is that he has been pitching forever, he just got paid, and now he’s in Boston. Lots of variables. Either way good buy. Your number 2 is. Your number 3 is. Your number 4 is Julio Terhran, Wei-Yin Chen, Rick Porcello, Jon Niese. Your number 5 is one of those guys. Your number 6 is Rich Hill, Kyle Gibson or JA Happ. Jason Hammel and Chris Tillman are sneaky interesting.  Bullpen here is wet, sticky and hot garbage. All things aside. Hail Hydra bought high? low? on a slew of starting pitchers. I don’t particularly like any of them for the role they’re being asked to do.. This team is a solid #2 starter away from being a different story.

Depth – Very Good

I like the bench picks. Obviously Lucroy is unecessary but great insurance. Steve Pearce, Zack Cozart, Jose Peraza all seem poised to be good fillers on the infield. It should be easy enough to find a solid fourth outfielder, preferably moving Santana to that spot with an upgrade at left field. I love the pitching depth here. It goes on for days and they are all guys I covet like Scrooge McDuck covets gold coins.

Why 2016 would be bad… 

If David Price goes down, things get hard really fast. If Prince Fielder cannot sleep and quits hitting again that’s a huge potential problem. Posey and Lucroy are both catchers with injury history, that is unfavorable. Was Nelson Cruz in Seattle last year something we see more of, or has the boom stick run dry? It really does not take a lot to punch holes in this roster full of good players only.

Why 2016 would be good… 

The hitters here will just crush a lot and the pitchers are all happily average. Not spinning 30 point starts but rarely going below 20. The narrative is clear to see, the staff is set for that kind of turnout. The hitters are locked and loaded. The team has pieces to move and could really bolster this roster without hurting this year, perhaps they do it.