Tag: minor league draft

Dynasty Grinders Deep Dive Minor League Draft / Waiver Wire Pickups

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I thought I would do a deep dive into Dynasty Grinders Minor League Draft for our new friends that have joined the league this year. The minor league draft can be a crap shoot, especially the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds. I’m not a big fan in obtaining later round picks in the draft. Usually they are just thrown ins to make the trade look better, you will see with the deep dive. 

 

The main reason TBD and HLR can acquire players like Glasnow and Castillo is because they are professional prospectors. I do think Glasnow and Castillo trades were a little lite going the other way considering the ages and salaries of both player.  I will guarantee you that TBD and HLR will restock quickly but it will get harder if everyone Grinds as hard as they do. The league will be going to 40 prospects this year, that’s 640 prospects. In 2023 the league will reach 50 prospects, that’s 800 players, that’s a lot of prospects and probably a lot of streaming of prospects.  

 

I used the Senior Squids Prospect Spreadsheet as my reference, the spreadsheet probably not as good as Hustle Media but you try to learn from the best, right? Dynasty Grinders has been around since 2016. The first year we drafted ten prospects each, good information can be gleaned  from the draft but not in the later rounds because we were  only drafting 160 players. I concentrated 2017 and 2018 drafts where the draft pooled increased 240 and 320 players respectively.  

 

A couple items: MLB/DM (DM = difference makers, Tatis types) category are drafted players that have made their MLB debut, don’t be fool with the category, just because the player fulfilled their dream making the majors doesn’t mean that are valuable fantasy assets. Can you say Daniel Gosset? 

 

Finally, the prospect ranking 1-10, 11-50, 51-100, 101-200,  200 and up.  I also went to the Dynasty Grinders Fantrax pages and to see who was picked up  off the waiver wire during the last four years. For the new owners this is where you need to grind and fine that hidden jewel and as you will see there were some crazy good players that were never drafted and plucked off the waiver wire.  

 

2016 Draft

Busts: 

1-7  Lewis Brinson, didn’t he just get traded for the 10th time last week? 

1-11 AJ Reed

2-6  Jose De Leon, yea I traded for him. 

 

Bam: 

1-1 Yoan Moncada 

1-4 Tyler Glasnow

1-13 Blake Snell

 

Wow, I drafted him that late, okay then. 

5.3 Jack Flaherty 

8.1 Matt Chapman

9.5 Walker Buehler, now this is a crazy one, he was drafted in 2016 and dropped and redrafted in the second round in 2017. Great grinding by TBD. 

12.3 Sandy Alcantra, yea I traded for him and  traded him away too. Yea another stupid trade. 

Wow Waiver Wire Pickups

Hunter Dozier, Royals, he was picked up and dropped a few times, including me. 

Juan Soto, Nationals, nice job Long Ball

Max Muncy Dodgers, first Dusty and he dropped him and of course HLR picked him up. HLR is huge Dodger fan. If you don’t know the fantasy owners favorite teams your missing out. I’m a sucker for the Mariners and I will pay a high price for JRod. 

Cristian Pache, Braves, another Longball pickup

Mitch Keller, Pirates, another TBD pickup

 

2017 Draft

Busts: 

Honestly the whole 1st rounds sucked!

1-1 Kevin Maitan, yea #1 player, I believe we was the best player on the board before the draft but I think he got his money and got fat and lazy. Most prospect web sites don’t have him ranked anymore. Hey, Boobs you have a 1st overall pick on your team. 

1-3 Cory Ray

1-4 Blake Rutherford

1-5 Mickey Moniak

1-6 Delvin Perez

1-7 Jason Groom

I could go on……. 

Bam: 

2-4 Walker Buehler, nice pick up TBD

2-11 Luis Castillo

3-6 Fernando Tatis,  HLR unfortunately traded him for a bag of balls. 

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then. 

4-1 Jesus Luzardo

5-16 Dinelson Lamet, HLR, yep the last player taken and yea he traded him too. 

Wow Waiver Wire Pickups

Shane Bieber, Indians, yep you read that right, the best pitcher in the league was never drafted. What does that tell the new owners? You need to grind. 

Ronald Acuna, Braves, 8.86 ppg.  Long Ball  hits the jackpot again, Acuna and Soto are the corner stone of his team. 

 

MLB/DM 1-10 11-50 51-100 101-200 200 and Up
2017 1 Round 10/0 0 0 0 0 6
2 Round 7/2 1 1 1 0 6
3 Round 9/1 1 1 0 0 5
4 Round 8/1 0 0 0 0 7
5 Round 6 0 0 0 0 10

 

  • Difference Makers: Buehler, Castillo, Luzardo and Tatis. 

 

2018 Draft

It’s probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows  but…….

Busts: 

1-7 Brendan McKay, Rays, shoulder surgery in Aug 2020, drafting pitching is always risky. 

1-8 Kyle Wright, Braves, yep that was me, 

1-11 Alex Faedo Tigers, another pitcher with arm issues too

Bam: 

1.1 Luis Robert, White Sox, Roberts made it to the  show pretty quick

2.9 Wander Franco, 1# prospect in the league, however he biceps and shoulder issues, at least he’s not a pitcher. 

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.

5-2 Vidal Brujan, Rays, Top 50 prospect

5-10 Sean Murphy, A’s, made it to the show and is a top ten catcher, I believe catchers are the hardest position to fill because they usually can’t hit. 

3-13 Will Smith, another productive catcher and he might be the best catcher in 2021

Waiver Wire Pickups

Bobby Dalbac impressive first year with 7.11 PPG, dropped by Longball, TBD picked him up and traded him to Organized Chaos.  

Gavin Lux top 50 prospect who made his debut in 2020

Cavin Biggo with a 6.24 PPG  and of course I had him on my team at one time. 

Spencer Howard, Top 50 prospect, yep I finally got a good waiver pick up. 

 

MLB/DM 1-10 11-50 51-100 101-200 200 and Up
2018 1 Round 7/1 1 1 1 2 4
2 Round 5 1 2 8
3 Round 7/1 1 1 7
4 Round 3 2 1 1 9
5 Round 4 1 11

 Difference Makers: Luis Robert and Will Smith

 

2019 Draft

Again probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows. 

Busts: 

1-2 Jonathen India, Reds, is TBD actually human? India’s stock has fell since being drafted as he”s dropped out of the many of the  top 200 prospects list but it is TBD and India is still young. 

1-11 Victor Victor Mesa, Marlins,  Mesa is out on most experts top 300 prospects list 

Bam: 

3-3 Noelvi Marte,  Mariners  Top 25 prospect but it’s still early

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.

5-10 Dylan Carlson Cardinals, nice pick up by the Beach Bums, top ten prospect, however struggle in the short MLB season. 

Waiver Wire Pickups

Mitch Garver, Twins, but is he for real? A 29 year old catcher with 7.2 PPG in 2019 but Ryan Jeffers might have taken his place as the starting catcher?  

Gio Urshela , Yankees, picked up by Ferns than dropped and picked by TBD and traded to Marshall Plan. Urshela scored 6 PPG in 2020. 

I didn’t find any other good pick ups except a bunch of relief pitchers claims by HLR, in 2019 HLR had 542 waiver claims which I think is a Dynasty Grinders record.  

 

Observations 

Prospects are the key to success in any dynasty league and especially in Dynasty Grinders. If you don’t grind prospects don’t expect to win a championships anytime soon.  Prospects and the waiver wire is where you need to grind. 

First round picks are huge, especially the top 5 or 6 picks. In our league 80% of the first round picks make the major leagues, second rounders 60% and third rounders 40%. I’m not fan of obtaining 4th and 5th rounders in trades, they are like candy corn and are only good for about five minutes. As you can see only a hand full of 4th and 5th rounders hit. You would be better off grinding the waiver wire.  

Remember when you obtain a first rounder from one of the top teams it’s really an early 2nd rounder and how many 2nd rounders hit, maybe 60%. There has been some good second rounders that hit like Buehler and Castillo who were just traded.  

Drafting pitchers is always a risk for two reasons, injuries and will the pitcher become a bullpen arm. Additionally drafting high school / international players are also a risk because of their age and their development (Maitan). HLR has been very successful in that department, I’m wondering if he would be willing to share his secret sauce, probably not.   

The waiver wire is where you can make up some ground but it takes a lot of grinding. Long Ball is the king by picking up Acuna and Soto.  HLR is the king of roster claims with a record of 542 claims in 2019, however make sure you watch your FAAB budget. Additionally,  watch the prospect experts in the league, sometimes they drop prospects they don’t have room for but you might. 

Finally, there is plenty of free prospects web sites to visit. A few sites have a pay wall but worth the $5 a month price.  If any of you like podcasts there are plenty out there that are both informational and entertaining.

Trade: Beach Bum | Who’s Your Haddy?

Image result for posey

 

Beach Bum🏝😎trades away

  • Schmidt, Clarke (prospect)
  • Baumann, Michael (prospect)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away

  • Posey, Buster $58

Jordan’s Thoughts

Haddy has traded away here a future Hall of Famer, Buster Posey who so far in 2019 has not been very useful. Posey has been a part of our auction draft every single year because he’s always too expensive to keep. But, then in the draft enough teams realize there’s more money available than there are elite talents.

So guys like Posey get a lot of money based on name value. Not awful. Beach Bum is buying low on a potential second half bounce back. We’ve seen worse deals.

Clarke Schmidt is a 45FV prospect in the Yankees organization who is 23 years old and hasn’t gotten above A-ball. Pitchers can make large jumps and the level is less important than for hitters. So far this year he’s doing alright, but he’s probably a reliever.

Michael Baumann is a podcaster for The Ringer’s MLB Show who dabbles as a 40FV prospect in the Baltimore Orioles system. Both pitching prospects here are old for their level and have good numbers. Maybe something happens.

Posey is a waiver wire add, and the two prospects are also waiver wire adds. This trade is fine in the fact that for both teams, nobody lost anything, so there’s likely that nobody really gained anything.

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02

Wow, I’m inspired by Jordan looking up prospects.  Posey is having a down year and is quite an easy cut again, but he’s shown signs of life lately.  Without a doubt Haddy will not regret giving away Posey, and if he does he will get him in auction for certainly less than $58.  That being said, these prospects are nothing and I feel like you shop and research prospects a little better to find someone with more value. If Posey suffers a serious injury between now and the trade deadline, you get nothing.  I still take the risk and do that if the price tag on him currently was nothing, which by this trade, it was.

Dan has all his draft picks right now and is currently one of the best teams in the league while using Alex Avila and Curt Casail.  Does he really turn down a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Buster Posey? I would not if I were in his shoes. Those picks are easily sellable for somewhere between $3-12 if every other minor league draft is any indication.  $3-12 is better than nothing, which was the return here.

Trade: Marshall Law | We Talk Fantasy Sports | The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses

We Talk Fantasy Sports gets:
SP Madison Bumgarner ($60)

Marshall Law gets:
LF/CF/RF Brandon Nimmo ($9)
LF/RF Jesse Winker ($3)
SP Dinelson Lamet ($3)

The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses gets:
SP J.B. Bukauskas
CF Leody Taveras
2019 1st Round Pick
2019 2nd Round Pick

Andrew’s thoughts: I love this trade for Marshall Law so, so much. It reminds me of the real-life Nationals/Rays/Padres trade for Trea Turner, where the Nats basically crashed a trade between the Rays and Padres and came away with the most appealing talent. Marshall gave up what I see as four lukewarm assets (Taveras seems like a low power guy whose speed doesn’t matter as much in our scoring; the other three pieces are pure lotto tickets) to get back two young, cheap impact pieces in Nimmo and Winker and a decent flier on Lamet, who was solid in 2017 before requiring Tommy John. Honestly, I’d rather have Nimmo or Winker alone than Bumgarner at $60 to keep or the package WBFD received.

For WBFD though, I get it. At $60, Bumgarner was a very likely cut as we’ve seen his skills and health begin to descend, and now there are even rumors he may be traded out of his hugely favorable home park. Steamer projections have Bumgarner as the 17th highest scoring pitcher for 2019, but that honestly seems a little rich to me. I’m just a little surprised he didn’t get the Nimmo/Winker package here. But if you’re going to cut a guy anyway, getting four zero-cost pieces like this is clearly better long-term.

And as for We Talk Fantasy Sports, well, I applaud the continued aggressive addition to try and compete in 2019. First it was Corey Kluber, then Dallas Keuchel, now Bumgarner. Still, while their pitching is very, very much improved, I look at that offense and wonder if it can possibly keep up. Losing Nimmo and Winker gives them two pretty big starting hitting holes, in my opinion, and Bumgarner might need to be prime Mad-Bum just to offset that.

Jordan’s thoughts:  My goal here is to be the creme filling in this turd sandwich of a trade review. Obviously I have a hard on for Jesse Winker who I drafted with my first round pick back in our first minor league draft. He seems good now and the Reds let Billy Hamilton go.

I agree that projections have soured on Madison Bumgarner and that is not completely hard to understand. However, I’ll disagree with with figurative “buns” and say that Bumgarner at $60 is more than fair and particularly attractive. I think if you’re on top and have a salary crunch, perhaps you have a different perspective on market value.  

I love the trade for Marshall Law and We Talk Fantasy Sports here. Marshall Law showing how a rebuild in this league should work. You build a core with current rising talent vs sacking a whole number of seasons for a wish and a hope. Which is what I think the WBFDs has done here. I don’t mind turning MadBum into a bunch of pieces. But the draft picks aren’t helping you soon, and the prospects are okay. Perhaps you get a good pitcher and a decent outfielder out of it in a season or two and perhaps those prospects turn into something too. But, odds are actually against you.

I think with any game you want to position yourself to win and a key step is identifying your win condition(s). WTFS appears to have found theirs with identifying needing a front line starter to help sway weeks in a head-to-head format. It works. ML identified needing to acquire useful assets while still acquiring points. Say these guys blossom, and you’re a piece or two away, they have assets they could push the chips in. It can work. WBFD identified needing to wait another three years. Has that worked ever?

Hustle’s Toxic $0.02:  Well this was a super fun trade. I think in all my years of playing fantasy sports I’ve seen very few if any other legit three way trades. So for that, I applaud the ability to pull it off. I am truly inspired.

For WFBD:  I think Gaut did OK here if you subscribe to the notion that Bumgarner is in a big decline. Streamer projects a near 4 ERA, FIP, and XFIP for Bumgarner in 2019 which makes a $60 investment in that subpar to say the least.  If Bumgarner gets traded those numbers would have to be worse, unless its to the Astros.  If Bumgarner is the guy he is projected to be, then getting a couple pieces for him seems fine.  Gaut will  have $60 to spend on Mike Leake and Mike Leake accessories in the auction as well as a couple neat picks.   I’m not a fan of Taveras (as I stated in the first Taveras deal this offseason), seems like a long shot in being better than a replacement level OF here.  I do think I like Bukauskas better than most so thats cool too.  Getting some assets for a guy who should be borderline be cut based on performance seems like a good idea.  If Bumgarner bounces back, Gaut may wonder if he could have gotten a bit more.

For WTFS: As Bailey stated, Keith’s rotation is much improved. Even if Bumgarner isn’t peak he’s still startable almost every time out. The team’s rotation went from arguably worst to above average through a course of trades this offseason, so that is indeed commendable. The offense is a work in progress and will be more difficult to fill after giving away two cheap promising OFers. Choo and Blackmon are nice OFers to have, but after that it kinda falls off.  1b, 3b, one OF and 2 UTIL spots have to be occupied by Sano, Shaw, Desmond, Happ, Calhoun, I’m not sure who the next best hitter is after these 5.  Having these guys as starters in your lineup seems incredibly risky since 4/5 of them were a minus at their position last year. Keith will have to find someway to supplant this either by trade or auction. This team at least had a direction now and with proper attention could push for a playoff spot.

For ML: There’s a lot to like here.  Winker could potentially be the best asset in the whole trade. as a $3 cost controlled OF batting near the top of the Reds lineup.  If las year is any indication he’s a very solid OF to have and if his power trends up he’s potentially a beast. I think Nimmo was obviously tremendously underrated going into last season and was one of the best pickups of the year, but I think he could be a tad overrated in 2019. That being said, he seems like he has the floor of being perfectly acceptable OF depth, which is valuable.  I think getting the Lamet flier is the perfect thing a rebuilding team should be doing, ad as a 3rd piece of a deal, seems great. I think these 3 pieces are probably better than a 1/2 rounder and Bukauskas, not a guarantee, but I love the odds.

Trade: We Talk Fantasy Sports | TBD

TBD trades away SP Corey Kluber ($86) SP/RP Dennis Santana ($3.50) SP Michael King (prospect) $20 in 2019 Auction Budget We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away Corbin Burnes (prospect) German Marquez $7 2019’s 1st round (1st Overall) minor league draft pick Jordan’s Thoughts: I think that German Marquez is quite valuable. Last year he started 33 games and scored 1107 points. That’s a pretty huge value for a $7 starter. However, I get that he’s kinda scary being a pitcher (they blow up), he’s a Colorado Rockies pitcher (no explanation necessary), and early projections have him regressing a tiny bit. Corbin Burnes went from a starting pitcher prospect to getting shoved into the “out-getter” (bullpen) role for the Brewers organization. He was mildly successful in his 30 appearances, but projection systems do see him getting back into a starting role. He seems quite useful despite the slight risk. He’s cost controlled and easy to slot into your roster until the Brewers make up their mind. Obviously the first overall pick has tremendous potential value, and here presented itself a a decent piece in a trade for Corey Kluber. We Talk Fantasy Sports got Corey Kluber and two spare parts. Michael King seems like he might have some potential, and while Santana if he makes the Dodgers rotation is immediately valuable, he will receive the free agent minimum in 2019. Using STEAMER projections Kluber is projected to be the best starting pitcher available. Almost no matter how you value pitchers, Kluber’s keeper value is really favorable. Tossing in the $20 is icing on the cake. Kluber projected to be right in line with where he was last year which was basically 40 points a start. If you have money to spend, Kluber is the right guy to spend it on. Now everyone’s favorite part where I pick the winner, and I have to go with TBD. I think its pretty close. I don’t like that WTFS sent off Marquez in this deal, and with him in it, clearly understand why TBD took the offer. Marquez is just too valuable to let go in my opinion. Andrew’s Thoughts: I agree with most of what Jordan already said and think it’s pretty obvious this trade hinges on German Marquez. If he’s truly the guy he morphed into last year, this is likely a massive win for TBD, as they get a much, much cheaper ace and the #1 overall pick. All of Marquez’s numbers from last year look legit to me. But… like 15-20 starts ago, he was “just a guy.” A guy on the Rockies. So Marquez is a fairly risky proposition still. Kluber, meanwhile, is beginning to decline a bit I think but is still a top of the rotation stud. He averaged almost 40 points per game in a year a lot of his peripherals slipped. Pretty amazing. Both teams accomplish something they needed here. TBD takes on some risk in order to free up some budget space and WTFS lands a bankable pitcher. I’ll say that I like this more for WTFS simply because they got back a more reliable piece, but again, if 2018 Marquez is future Marquez, then this deal looks fantastic for TBD. I will also confess that part of why I like it for WTFS is because this trade screams “quick rebuild” and I’m pro teams trying to turn things around for their teams quickly.

Trade: TBD | Capital City Income

Capital City Income trades away
Lamet, Dinelson ($1 cost controlled)
Zimmerman, Ryan (5)

TBD trades away
Lamb, Jake ($9)
Roark, Tanner ($9)

 

 

 

 

 

Hustle’s Toxic $.02:  This trade is pretty triggering for me because I traded the best two pieces in this trade. 1 week before the 2016 Season I traded TBD a $1 Lamb for a $2 Souza. 1 week after the 2017 Minor League Draft I traded CAP a prospect Dinelson Lamet for a 4th round pick in 2020 (can’t wait to make that pick btw).  In my defense I had too many prospects and because of green flag rules, I was going to drop Lamet. Now that we’ve talked about myself, let’s move on to less interesting matters.

CAP’s haul

I personally see Jake Lamb as the best asset of this trade. He had a bad second half last year (for the second year in a row), but I think Lamb was hampered by a hand injury. He seems like he has the safest floor ( and a pretty high one) of a guy Bailey can keep for multiple years, but let’s see how he does with the rumored humidor!  With Beltre as his primary 3b, Jake Lamb provides depth and future at the position for CAP.   Most importantly, Bailey finally has someone we can greed on his team

Tanner Roark? Probably the weakest part of this entire trade. I don’t really wanna look into Tanner Roark. He’s fine at $9 and Bailey follows the Nationals, so OK.  Maybe him and Lamet are a wash, that’s what he would hope for.

TBD’s Haul

Dinelson Lamet!  Lamet has the upside to be the best part of this trade if he turns into a consistent pitcher who can go late into games and keep up his k rate. He also has considerable downside as evidenced by his 5 walks per 9 in the second half. He’s a sexy name right now and has plenty of time to figure it out, but he’s still a bit of an unknown.

Ryan Zimmerman has always been an underrated hitter who couldn’t stay healthy. In 2017 he played more than he has in the last 4 years and exploded for 36 bombs.  I think it would be kind of ridiculous to expect a repeat (he faded pretty bad in the 2nd half), but he’s surely worth his price and TBD was looking for a 1b.  Lastly, one should probably question a Nationals fan trading away a National.

Conclusion: I think think Bailey did a good job of selling high on guys coming off good season and buying low on 2 disappointing seasons. Ultimately, I think it really comes down to what Dinelson Lamet is in 2018 and beyond. If you’re a big fan of D.L.  you like this trade for TBD, if you’re not you like it for CAP.

These two teams are amongst the more successful teams in this league primarily through effort and paying attention. Other members of the league will create fake conversations in order to pretend to be strategic to justify inactivity.  Both these methods take effort and ultimately are examples of grinding ,but grinding differently.

 

 

Trade: Night King’s Undead Army | TBD

TBD sends: CF/RF Max Kepler ($15), 2018 4th Round Pick
Night King’s Undead Army sends: 2018 2nd Round Pick

 

Andrew’s Thoughts: Well, Night King’s Undead Army gets the centerfielder that Jordan coveted.

I’m a big Max Kepler fan. I went to a Twins game in Minnesota last year and took pictures of him, and of stuff with him on it. It was creepy. Having said that, I’m torn on him as a $15 option. I do think there’s pretty solid upside in him — when he’s hot, he’s quite good, so consistency as he matures will help — but, I don’t know. I guess for the cost of moving back two rounds, it’s fine. I think if sent back to auction, Kepler probably takes a slight pay cut. But I also like getting my guys before auction and not having to roll those dice, so.

For TBD, seems good. Another salary dump of an obvious cut in exchange for what might be an okay prospect. TBD’s farm system continues to stockpile without really spending resources that matter to them, so that seems fun.

Hustle’s toxic $0.02: Joe turning another cuttable asset for something in return is always going to be a good move, so I like this for TBD. He’s also been arguably the best at extracting value from picks and minor leaguers, so this is another asset for him.  This also saves Jordan at least one awkward DM to me during the minor league draft asking if drafting player X is a good choice.

$15 for Max Kepler seems steep for a somewhat averaging scoring outfielder.  He does have CF eligibility which is nice. Jordan has Josh Reddick at 9, but maybe he doesn’t feel comfortable there. Either way, I think Jordan losing a 2nd round pick doesn’t mean a lot for his team and adding a hitter who can play at RF. CF or UTIL certainly will add value and flexibility to his roster. That being said I always think back to Bailey’s cheap outfielders from last year like Span and Markakis… I was able to add Avisail Garcia and Robbie Grossman.  Does Kepler have significantly more upside than Kepler to justify 3 times the salary and a 2nd round pick? He might, but he might not. Maybe Span and Markakis don’t have the year like they did last year, but I think there will be comparable unsexy outfielders available in the auction or for cheap once the  season starts. If you acquire that type of player during the season, I’m sure a 2nd rounder is close to what gets it done, and you probably save the $15, and that’s under the premise you didn’t lock one up for under $5 at auction or pick one up for free. If you think Kepler has significant upside, I can see the justification here.

Trade: Rocky Mtn Oysters | Preseason Double Stuffs

Preseason Double Stuffs sends: 2B Rougned Odor ($29)
Rocky Mtn Oysters send: LF/CF/RF Taylor Trammell

Andrew’s Thoughts: I’m still not a Rougned Odor fan. Too much variance. He seems to either make an out, usually by strike out, or hit a home run, which is a little more appealing in a 5×5 roto league than a H2H league. Worse, Odor has one of the most punchable faces in all of baseball. I’m firmly #TeamBautista. Still, this makes sense for Dusty, who gave up a prospect that’s like 2-3 years from scoring him points for a bench guy that he can just as easily cut in the offseason when he costs $31 (or more if someone slaps greed on him). I mean, yeah, Odor never walks so he has no real floor, but you could do way worse than a 30+ HR threat as a back-up.

For the Double Stuffs, this could be seen as flipping a $15 DJ LeMahieu for a toolsy outfield prospect that has just now started to sneak onto top-100 lists but, again, is a ways off. Looking at it that way is probably demoralizing though. Instead, just look at this transaction by itself and it’s fine. Because again, I’m cutting a $30+ Odor after the season. I imagine PDS was too. Odor has upside but that cost offsets pretty much all of it.

As for Trammell, well, I’m pretty sure I was baffled when Dusty paid budget money to move up and take him in our minor league draft. But I stand corrected. He is now a guy whose name appears on lists. And guess what? Getting your name on lists means you have trade value. I can’t find record of ever doubting Trammell here on the Dynasty Grinders dot com, but I remember doing so somewhere. And so this is me, taking responsibility for the things that I have said, and admitting that I was wrong some months back about the acquisition cost of this particular prospect.

Anyway, I’m pretty clearly okay in general with good teams acquiring bad salaries as bench or depth pieces and bad teams getting back reputable prospects for them instead of waiting around to cut.

Hustle’s Toxic $.02: Both these owners and teams should be commended for making this trade. They both wanted to make their teams better (I hope) and managed to find the courage to agree on terms despite a potential trade review looming.

PDS obviously sees Schoop as their 2b of the future and at $12 and almost averaging 7 ppg, Schoop is easily the better player and value going forward. Schoop has really cut down his Ks and while his BABIP is high, it’s not crazy high. It makes sense for PDS to get rid of Odor for a prospect they like. If Trammel is their guy, so be it, I’m not sure what their other options were. It was not that long ago when PDS traded DJ Lemeihu for Odor, so Odor’s stench on PDS has been quickly removed. That being said, with their cap space, they were probably better off with DJ and Schoop. Odor was one of the few players I pegged PDS to keep. With one less guy, I’d expect to see a lot of new faces on their team next season, I hope they enjoy the turnover.

 

For Dusty, he trades a borderline top 100 prospect for even more 2b depth. He has Cano at 2b, so Odor is pretty much looking at playing time on his team at Utility. With Taylor, Spangeberg, Priela, and Sogard… Odor might be just another guy on his team. That being said Odor does have some nice power potential and could be big down the stretch if he gets hot on the first place Oysters. It’s a low cost risk for a currently hot swinging Odor.

Trade: Capital City Income | Pre Season Double Stuffs

 

Capital City Income trades away
Urías, Julio ($1, first controlled year)

Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Cabrera, Miguel ($73)

Hustle’s $.02

First things first. We must recall that a little over a year ago PDS acquired Miggy from CCI.  In sum from these two deals Bailey got a 1st round pick (Senzel…which was the center piece for Stanton), Soler (which was a big piece in his acquisition for Mccutchen), Ian Happ, Bellinger, and I guess Brett Phillips for damaged goods Urias and Blake Snell If I’m missing vital parts of these two transactions, I’ll be happy to edit.

CII gets reunited with Miggy. Miguel Cabrera is having a disappointing year and at his age, there’s a pretty high chance he’s not getting kept at $75.  That being said, I don’t think he’s dead (unlike Urias). His numbers are down, most notably his slugging, but I kind of don’t buy one of the best hitters of all-time is done at 34.  5 points a game is a disappointment by Miggy standards, but I think better times are ahead. David Ortiz had some bad stretches in his mid 30s and was a superstar late, and I don’t think he was the hitter in his prime Miggy was.

I totally get a rebuilding and moving on from Miggy and getting whatever value you can, but looking at PDS’s roster there aren’t a lot of cost commitments here. I see well under $100 bucks of keepable pitching and probably under $250 of keepable hitting. I’d say those figures are conservative and should be lower  I’d say at a minimum (without other trades) PDS is going to have a ton of cash in the next auction. Auction cash is great, I probably overrate it more than most people, but having good players is better.  PDS current projected 2018 roster highlights seem to be JD Martinez, Schoop, Jordan Montgonery (one of the year’s best pickups) and I guess Lance Lynn. All nice players. . That being said, I think this core is going to struggle in 2018, which is perfect for Urias , because I don’t think he’ll be pitching much in 2018.

As a Dodgers fan, I hope I’m wrong, but Urias’ effective or even complete career may be over.  I think Bailey was very wise to get what he could for Urias now, because the best case scenario is he’ll be an OK pitcher in 2019. He’s damaged goods.

“Urias’s injury sends shock waves through the Dodgers’ organization as only a handful of pitchers have ever had this surgery, and only Chris Young of the Royals has come back and pitched effectively at the Major League level after it.  Other pitchers who had capsule surgery are Rich Harden, Mark Prior, and Johan Santana.”

Chris Young Royals upside!  I mean, he won a World Series pitching for them. #ringz.

We were all really excited that first minor league draft and Urias was in the mix to be #1 overall. I think the shine has wore off considerably just because of this unfortunate injury. At least Urias will be DL eligible throughout the entire recovery process so a roster spot won’t be wasted. I expect Urias to give PDS very little if anything next year, but at least his $3 or whatever will be a drop in the bucket and won’t prevent them from spending on available assets.

Just for fun. JUST FOR FUN.  Top 10 things I’d rather have than Julio Urias right now. (Again, I truly hope I’m wrong about Urias’ career.)

1) one first round pick

2) Aaron Hicks

3) $6 auction dollars.

4)  Jordan’s greed dollar in perpetuity

5) Byron Buxton (so I have the ability to cut him.)

6) Tyler Oneil

7) Miguel Cabrera

8) Wander Javier‘s younger brother

9) The right to mention _____ in a trade review not involving him.

10) A damaged good prospect who has a lot of value in trade.

I know you all thought I would mention Sucre, but I take this seriously.

 

 

Trade: In Line 4 the Win | The Foundation

 

In Line 4 the Win sends: SP Adam Wainwright ($28), LF/CF/RF Josh Reddick ($7)
The Foundation sends: SP Zach Davies ($4), 2018 1st Round Pick, Player to be Named Later (SP Braxton Garrett)

Andrew’s Thoughts: I like this for The Foundation. I think trading Wainwright at $28 for Davies at $4 plus a little kick back makes sense for IL4W. They get the cheaper, younger guy in that scenario. Honestly, they could’ve traded Wainwright for Davies straight up and I wouldn’t have loved it, but it’d make sense from a budget, long-term team building standpoint.

But Josh Reddick is what tilts this deal for me. He’s cheap, qualifies at all three outfield spots, and is currently averaging over six points a game. He’s had some platoon issues in the past, but he kills RHP, so he more often than not provides value. And this year he’s even hitting lefties.

Meanwhile, the pick going to IL4W currently projects to be 13th. I guess that gives IL4W four first rounders next year, so they can dominate the draft, but what are the odds they land someone better than Reddick with that pick? And again, Reddick is cheap. This is where I think the cost control thing gets blown out of proportion. Is a free/cheap teenager that could pretty easily be nothing really that much more valuable than a proven, solid performer that costs less than $10? I don’t really think so. If you’re rebuilding, maybe it makes sense, but I think making that same type of bet enough times just prolongs your rebuilding process.

The player to be named later aspect is fun. Braxton Garrett is broken though. He had Tommy John surgery near the end of June. He’s also 19-years-old and has all of 15.1 IP at Single-A. He’ll probably miss most or even all of 2018. He was at one point a top-100 prospect, but the lead time and risk makes me feel like you could just as easily find a guy like him off waivers. Also, while IL4W can acquire him once minor league rosters expand, they also have a ton of draft pick ammunition, so unless they funnel off those picks to acquire major league talent, they’ll eventually be cutting prospects to make room for Garrett and their picks.

Hustle’s Take: I agree with almost all of what Andrew said… THIS time so I’ll just interject with a few points that haven’t been addressed.

While I hear the notion that “this draft is weak”, I do think come 2018 minor league draft, guys will start to receive hype and some of the guys will have 1/2 a season of pro ball and some of the cream will rise.  I think there will be some good values in the first round that may not seem super obvious right now.  That being said, IL4W has 4 picks in the first round and 7 overall (none after round 3). That seems like overkill unless you just love the draft. I’d expect Aaron to be never busy during the draft.

Wainwright was unkeepable last year at 50 or so dollars. It’s not crazy that if he finishes the year strong, he’s worth keeping at 22 or shopping to someone with a lot of cap space. Mike Leake wasn’t someoneI wanted to keep last year at 16 and he was moved for a buck, kept, and has done very well.  For Jordan, the problem with Wainwright (as I see it), is he’s hard to use as a matchup play. There doesn’t seem to be a ton of rhyme or reason when Wainwright has a great game or blows up based on matchup. That’s frustrating as an owner.

That’s also not to say I don’t like getting Wainwright, because Jordan didn’t pay a ton. Zach Davies was a nice sleeper heading into the year. Ks are down, HRs are up, Walks are up.  Maybe he puts it together in the second half and becomes a cheap multi year keeper for IL4W.

I’m all for sexy assets when you’re out of it, but didn’t see much here. If Davies and/or Braxton Garrett are your guys, then this is a fine grab. Wainwright and Reddick are a pretty huge boost for Jordan, and one or both might be keepable…. so that’s a big win.

The 2017 Minor League draft has been completed!

Our 2017 minor league draft has been completed. You can check out the full draft board and results right here.

This year’s draft kicked off on February 1 and wrapped up today, so it took us two weeks to get through five rounds and 80 picks. If my count is correct, there were 10 trades during that time, mostly of the auction budget-for-pick variety. So that was fun.

Jordan and I were asked if we were going to do a recap post of some kind and weren’t super interested. Aren’t people sick of our opinions on trades and stuff? Apparently not!

So just for fun — and because we have nothing to do until our final pre-auction cut down on February 27 — I decided to skim over the draft board and share some random thoughts as they pop into my head. Here goes…

Thought #1: Picking second, I was really shocked that Kevin Maitan went first overall. That’s what comparisons to Miguel Cabrera will do for you. For my own taste, a player that just turned 17-years-old is a bit rich for my blood here regardless of what the “upside” might be.

Thought #2: TBD had a great draft, both cashing in their own picks and aggressively acquiring others. Their haul: Alex Kiriloff, Cal Quantrill, Lucas Erceg, Walker Buehler, Jahmai Jones, Heath Quinn, and Bryan Reynolds. I hadn’t heard of Quinn, but all the other guys check boxes for me.

Thought #3: Defending champs Team Hydra did well too. They got Leody Taveras and Ramon Laureano early, two guys that are rising up lists fast, and then added Dustin Fowler and Jorge Bonifacio later. So they addressed a future outfield quite well. Plus, they somehow turned later picks into a total of $12 auction budget. I think if you can get a couple wildcard prospects and cash instead of just wildcard prospects, you’ve killed it.

Thought #4: So, speaking of trading picks for auction budget…

Look, I shipped out $6 to pick up Lourdes Gurriel because I’ve got a bunch of money and he’s major league ready. Or at least close. But man, Dusty dropped $26 by my count on assorted picks (Taylor Trammell, Will Benson, Joey Wentz, Mason Thompson, Cionel Perez, Jorge Ona). I have a really difficult time seeing how any of those guys are significantly better than whoever will be available after auction when free agency opens. The difference, of course, is $26. All prospects are gambles. I’d rather gamble that $26 on a bounce back player at auction who has the chance to be worth $40-$50 as soon as 2017 then to spend all that money just to fill roster spots.

Thought #5: Who’s Your Haddy? added $22 of auction budget by trading picks and still ended up with Miguel Andujar, who is close to contributing for the Yankees, and Adonis Medina, who shockingly came in at #91 on Baseball Prospectus’ top-101. This, to me, is just an awesome draft and a great use of non-premium picks.

In other words, the deeper you get into a draft, the less and less separation between players. We’re all throwing darts, but the bulls eye starts to shrink. So the difference between a fourth round pick and 10 assorted guys who will go undrafted and be picked up after the draft is slim. Why not take cash for those picks then and just add the undrafted guys for free?

Thought #6: The Wilfred Brimley Fightin’ Diabeetuses had a really good draft too. He tabbed Mickey Moniak and Delvin Perez in the first round, then took the lead on Rockies’ pitcher Riley Pint. That’s a lot of talent to take away from the draft. Pint’s a huge risk, obviously, but it’s not like he’s guaranteed to be in Colorado forever.

Thought #7: I like Senior Squids grabbing Zack Burdi in the last round. Relievers probably aren’t worth big salaries in our league right now, but he could be a closer in Chicago as soon as this year and costs nothing, then be $1 next year. Getting MLB-ready RPs in the draft seems like a good cheat code at the position assuming they perform decently.

Thought #8: The first player I didn’t immediately recognize was Daniel Gossett, who We Talk Fantasy Sports took in the back half of the second round.

Thought #9: Speaking of WTFS, they took Zack Collins with the 9th overall pick. He’s a catcher that is probably destined for 1B, which would obviously hurt his value. But I’ll be honest: if Nick Senzel had gone first, I was taking Corey Ray and then Collins. I obviously like guys that are close to the majors, and Collins provides extra value at catcher and his bat would play, at worst, as one of the two UT positions.

Thought #10: Shocker, Jordan took pitchers! Jason Groome, the first pitcher taken, is young and a ways off but felt like the obvious choice at #8. Adding Braxton Garrett and Ian Anderson, two guys on most top-100 lists, was good value too.

Thought #11: I love the gamble of Dinelson Lamet to cap a strong draft by Hustle Loyalty Respect with the very last pick. He’s not a highly thought of prospect, but he’s posted big minor league K numbers, has made it to Triple-A, and have you seen the Padres rotation? If he can simply crack the big league rotation, it’ll be worth it. And if he’s anywhere around average, he’ll be cheap and have value.

Thought #12: Okay, one more quick compliment for HLR: I like the Andres Gimenez pick a lot. He spent $1 to trade up a few spots and probably didn’t need to, but whatever. This is an 18-year-old at rookie ball, so make of that what you will, but last year he walked 46 times and had only 22 strikeouts in 275 PAs. That’s just silly.

Thought #13: In the group chat, Chris of Preseason Double Stuffs balked at Trumpa Loompa’s pick of Wladimir Galindo in the fourth round, saying, “18, GCL, questionable bat speed. No thanks.” Two things: first, I had no clue who this guy was so I looked him up. Second: he’s apparently not 18, he’s 20 (he was 19 during last playing season). And he didn’t play in the GCL, he played for the Eugene Emeralds of the Northwest League. The Cubs don’t even appear to have a GCL team. Nice right hand man you’ve hired, Ferns.

Thought #14: In Line 4 the Win picked someone named Jesus Luzardo was drafted. It made me think of these guys.

Thought #15: I can muster no more thoughts at this time. We’re having grilled cheese and soup for dinner, I think. Soup is awful but grilled cheese is pretty good. I put pickles on mine. Goodbye.