Tag: pitching

Dynasty Grinders Deep Dive Minor League Draft / Waiver Wire Pickups

Amazon.com: 2016 Bowman International Ink #II-FT Fernando Tatis Jr. White Sox MLB Baseball Card NM-MT: Collectibles & Fine Art

 

 

I thought I would do a deep dive into Dynasty Grinders Minor League Draft for our new friends that have joined the league this year. The minor league draft can be a crap shoot, especially the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds. I’m not a big fan in obtaining later round picks in the draft. Usually they are just thrown ins to make the trade look better, you will see with the deep dive. 

 

The main reason TBD and HLR can acquire players like Glasnow and Castillo is because they are professional prospectors. I do think Glasnow and Castillo trades were a little lite going the other way considering the ages and salaries of both player.  I will guarantee you that TBD and HLR will restock quickly but it will get harder if everyone Grinds as hard as they do. The league will be going to 40 prospects this year, that’s 640 prospects. In 2023 the league will reach 50 prospects, that’s 800 players, that’s a lot of prospects and probably a lot of streaming of prospects.  

 

I used the Senior Squids Prospect Spreadsheet as my reference, the spreadsheet probably not as good as Hustle Media but you try to learn from the best, right? Dynasty Grinders has been around since 2016. The first year we drafted ten prospects each, good information can be gleaned  from the draft but not in the later rounds because we were  only drafting 160 players. I concentrated 2017 and 2018 drafts where the draft pooled increased 240 and 320 players respectively.  

 

A couple items: MLB/DM (DM = difference makers, Tatis types) category are drafted players that have made their MLB debut, don’t be fool with the category, just because the player fulfilled their dream making the majors doesn’t mean that are valuable fantasy assets. Can you say Daniel Gosset? 

 

Finally, the prospect ranking 1-10, 11-50, 51-100, 101-200,  200 and up.  I also went to the Dynasty Grinders Fantrax pages and to see who was picked up  off the waiver wire during the last four years. For the new owners this is where you need to grind and fine that hidden jewel and as you will see there were some crazy good players that were never drafted and plucked off the waiver wire.  

 

2016 Draft

Busts: 

1-7  Lewis Brinson, didn’t he just get traded for the 10th time last week? 

1-11 AJ Reed

2-6  Jose De Leon, yea I traded for him. 

 

Bam: 

1-1 Yoan Moncada 

1-4 Tyler Glasnow

1-13 Blake Snell

 

Wow, I drafted him that late, okay then. 

5.3 Jack Flaherty 

8.1 Matt Chapman

9.5 Walker Buehler, now this is a crazy one, he was drafted in 2016 and dropped and redrafted in the second round in 2017. Great grinding by TBD. 

12.3 Sandy Alcantra, yea I traded for him and  traded him away too. Yea another stupid trade. 

Wow Waiver Wire Pickups

Hunter Dozier, Royals, he was picked up and dropped a few times, including me. 

Juan Soto, Nationals, nice job Long Ball

Max Muncy Dodgers, first Dusty and he dropped him and of course HLR picked him up. HLR is huge Dodger fan. If you don’t know the fantasy owners favorite teams your missing out. I’m a sucker for the Mariners and I will pay a high price for JRod. 

Cristian Pache, Braves, another Longball pickup

Mitch Keller, Pirates, another TBD pickup

 

2017 Draft

Busts: 

Honestly the whole 1st rounds sucked!

1-1 Kevin Maitan, yea #1 player, I believe we was the best player on the board before the draft but I think he got his money and got fat and lazy. Most prospect web sites don’t have him ranked anymore. Hey, Boobs you have a 1st overall pick on your team. 

1-3 Cory Ray

1-4 Blake Rutherford

1-5 Mickey Moniak

1-6 Delvin Perez

1-7 Jason Groom

I could go on……. 

Bam: 

2-4 Walker Buehler, nice pick up TBD

2-11 Luis Castillo

3-6 Fernando Tatis,  HLR unfortunately traded him for a bag of balls. 

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then. 

4-1 Jesus Luzardo

5-16 Dinelson Lamet, HLR, yep the last player taken and yea he traded him too. 

Wow Waiver Wire Pickups

Shane Bieber, Indians, yep you read that right, the best pitcher in the league was never drafted. What does that tell the new owners? You need to grind. 

Ronald Acuna, Braves, 8.86 ppg.  Long Ball  hits the jackpot again, Acuna and Soto are the corner stone of his team. 

 

MLB/DM 1-10 11-50 51-100 101-200 200 and Up
2017 1 Round 10/0 0 0 0 0 6
2 Round 7/2 1 1 1 0 6
3 Round 9/1 1 1 0 0 5
4 Round 8/1 0 0 0 0 7
5 Round 6 0 0 0 0 10

 

  • Difference Makers: Buehler, Castillo, Luzardo and Tatis. 

 

2018 Draft

It’s probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows  but…….

Busts: 

1-7 Brendan McKay, Rays, shoulder surgery in Aug 2020, drafting pitching is always risky. 

1-8 Kyle Wright, Braves, yep that was me, 

1-11 Alex Faedo Tigers, another pitcher with arm issues too

Bam: 

1.1 Luis Robert, White Sox, Roberts made it to the  show pretty quick

2.9 Wander Franco, 1# prospect in the league, however he biceps and shoulder issues, at least he’s not a pitcher. 

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.

5-2 Vidal Brujan, Rays, Top 50 prospect

5-10 Sean Murphy, A’s, made it to the show and is a top ten catcher, I believe catchers are the hardest position to fill because they usually can’t hit. 

3-13 Will Smith, another productive catcher and he might be the best catcher in 2021

Waiver Wire Pickups

Bobby Dalbac impressive first year with 7.11 PPG, dropped by Longball, TBD picked him up and traded him to Organized Chaos.  

Gavin Lux top 50 prospect who made his debut in 2020

Cavin Biggo with a 6.24 PPG  and of course I had him on my team at one time. 

Spencer Howard, Top 50 prospect, yep I finally got a good waiver pick up. 

 

MLB/DM 1-10 11-50 51-100 101-200 200 and Up
2018 1 Round 7/1 1 1 1 2 4
2 Round 5 1 2 8
3 Round 7/1 1 1 7
4 Round 3 2 1 1 9
5 Round 4 1 11

 Difference Makers: Luis Robert and Will Smith

 

2019 Draft

Again probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows. 

Busts: 

1-2 Jonathen India, Reds, is TBD actually human? India’s stock has fell since being drafted as he”s dropped out of the many of the  top 200 prospects list but it is TBD and India is still young. 

1-11 Victor Victor Mesa, Marlins,  Mesa is out on most experts top 300 prospects list 

Bam: 

3-3 Noelvi Marte,  Mariners  Top 25 prospect but it’s still early

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.

5-10 Dylan Carlson Cardinals, nice pick up by the Beach Bums, top ten prospect, however struggle in the short MLB season. 

Waiver Wire Pickups

Mitch Garver, Twins, but is he for real? A 29 year old catcher with 7.2 PPG in 2019 but Ryan Jeffers might have taken his place as the starting catcher?  

Gio Urshela , Yankees, picked up by Ferns than dropped and picked by TBD and traded to Marshall Plan. Urshela scored 6 PPG in 2020. 

I didn’t find any other good pick ups except a bunch of relief pitchers claims by HLR, in 2019 HLR had 542 waiver claims which I think is a Dynasty Grinders record.  

 

Observations 

Prospects are the key to success in any dynasty league and especially in Dynasty Grinders. If you don’t grind prospects don’t expect to win a championships anytime soon.  Prospects and the waiver wire is where you need to grind. 

First round picks are huge, especially the top 5 or 6 picks. In our league 80% of the first round picks make the major leagues, second rounders 60% and third rounders 40%. I’m not fan of obtaining 4th and 5th rounders in trades, they are like candy corn and are only good for about five minutes. As you can see only a hand full of 4th and 5th rounders hit. You would be better off grinding the waiver wire.  

Remember when you obtain a first rounder from one of the top teams it’s really an early 2nd rounder and how many 2nd rounders hit, maybe 60%. There has been some good second rounders that hit like Buehler and Castillo who were just traded.  

Drafting pitchers is always a risk for two reasons, injuries and will the pitcher become a bullpen arm. Additionally drafting high school / international players are also a risk because of their age and their development (Maitan). HLR has been very successful in that department, I’m wondering if he would be willing to share his secret sauce, probably not.   

The waiver wire is where you can make up some ground but it takes a lot of grinding. Long Ball is the king by picking up Acuna and Soto.  HLR is the king of roster claims with a record of 542 claims in 2019, however make sure you watch your FAAB budget. Additionally,  watch the prospect experts in the league, sometimes they drop prospects they don’t have room for but you might. 

Finally, there is plenty of free prospects web sites to visit. A few sites have a pay wall but worth the $5 a month price.  If any of you like podcasts there are plenty out there that are both informational and entertaining.

Trade: Brew Crew | Hustle Loyalty Respect

Blue Jays' Ryu Hyun-jin to stay in Florida for training

 

Brew Crew trades away

  • Hyun Jin Ryu – $20
  • Oneil Cruz – prospect

 

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

 

Just going to give you my thoughts here without the typical effort of looking up stats and what not. Call it a first impression review. No hustle , but mad respect.

The Brew Crew tear down continues, but I really like this trade for the Brew Crew. H. Ryu was good last year in his first year for the Jays and he was good the year before with the Dodgers. Odds of him being healthy for a full season again?? I haven’t looked but I’m guessing he hasn’t had two full healthy seasons in a row. Maybe he is over his injury woes , but pitchers of this ilk are the ones you want to trade while the value is there. He is not the guy a rebuilding team should wait on and trade midseason, as his value could vanish quicker than your employment during a pandemic.

Matt Manning is the main reason I like this trade as he is a solid high ceiling pitching prospect who is getting close to major league time. Getting a top prospect from Hustle is no easy task, as he is tighter than an Otters pocket with his quality prospects. Rob Ray I think is more valuable under our new rules than the previous 7 start rule. The Jays will keep his starts to 5 IP most of the time , and I think he will be a good points per innings pitcher. Good buy low., under the old rules of 7 starts these pitchers don’t have as much value. Better to get a Robbie Ray and hope for a bounce back, then some B level prospect.

Ryu is obviously going to be a near elite pitcher when healthy and Hustle is hoping for that and paying for that here. All pitchers are injury risks, but i think Ryu would be high up on my personal list of risky pitchers. Oneil Cruz is in some legal trouble, high ceiling but for some reason he reminds me of Dominic Brown, maybe too long and lengthy to put a consistent swing together. A good flier for hustle; however, he was drafted by the bottom dwelling Foundation so can he really be called a prospect.

Hustle gets better, the rebuild gets some juice. Nice trade guys.

Trade: Hustle | Suplex City

Luis Castillo throws seven scoreless innings, holds Phillies to four hits in 4-0 win

 

Hustle Loyalty and Respect trades away

  • Joey Bart – $0 cc
  • Francisco Morales– $0 cc
  • Heliot Ramos – $0 cc
  • Mitch Keller – $0 cc

 

Suplex City trades away

  • Luis Castillo – $15

 

Keeping up with the Jones? It’s a good trade for both teams, a rebuilding team and a team favorite to win it all in 2021. They both went out trying to improve their teams, and they did. 

 

In the short 2020 season Luis Castillo averaged 36.3 FP/G in 12 starts. He’s the 14th best pitcher in the league and in 2019 he averaged 34.7 FP/G.  The best part in the trade is Castillo is entering his prime at age 27 and has a salary of only $15.  Hustle watched TBD acquire some valuable pieces since trading began. Hustle countered by picking up Castillo, a top 10 pitcher in our league and the MLB. Did Hustle over pay? Or is this the going price for cream-of-the-crop pitching, only time will tell.  

 

Suplex City got four quality prospects and hopefully Joey Bart has found a home. In less than 30 hours Bart was traded three times. If my math is correct, in two days Suplex has added 13 minor league prospects. When he took over the team he only had one top 100 prospect and now according to the Senior Squids prospect spreadsheet they now have six top 100 prospects, good for them.  

 

  • Joey Bart is Buster Posey’s replacement and should not have a problem finding playing time with a 50 hit tool and a 60 power tool. 
  • Francisco Morales is still very young but with a 6’4″ frame who can hit 97 mph with the fastball and 70-grade slider, he’s going to be good. 
  • Heliot Ramos, a 21 year old, has already made it to Double AA and is on the fast track to the majors, especially since the Giants are on a rebuild. In the Cal League in 2019 he had the 3rd best (143 wRC+). He’s a big guy with power and is very athletic. 
  • Mitch Keller is slated to be the Pirates #2 pitcher and had a tough MLB debut with 7.13 ERA in 11 starts. However, in 2019 he posted 3.56 ERA at AAA. Keller is still only 24 and was a top 100 prospect coming out of Cedar Rapids IA. He will definitely have his opportunity with the always the rebuilding Pirates. 

 

 

For the new owners, these draft reviews mean nothing or absolutely zilch and are just for fun. I used to take these reviews seriously, “crap, did I just screw up” DON”T worry about it. If you want a player go for it and hope for the best. Everyone values players differently like chocolate and vanilla ice cream or whatever flavor you like.   

 

Finally, if you don’t value prospects you need to start yesterday, this is a dynasty league. The reason TBD and Hustle are always at the top of the standings is because they are great at prospecting and use their assets to make trades like this one. My advice is to start a prospect spreadsheet, the internet has plenty of free resources. Good trade by both teams.  

 

Trade: Marshall Law & Suplex City

Baseball Players Celebrate Home Run With Frisky Handshake - Gayety

 

Marshall Law trades away

Suplex City trades away

 

So Michael Kopech is rated as Baseball America’s 29th best prospect, part  of the package the Red Sox gave up to get Chris Sale. He apparently has the stuff to be top of the line, but has lacked the arm health. He is the  target here, as he is a high ceiling player you dream about becoming your fantasy team ace.
Kyle Freeland had a nice 2018 in Colorado. That’s something. Pitching in Colorado is tough, he has been not great the last 2 years. He’s a SP for $7 so he has value, and i would keep him.
Gallo….wasn’t great in 2020..4.4 fantasy points per game. In 2019 he was 7.9 fantasy points per game over just 240AB’s. Was the new ballpark being less hitter friendly the reason for Gallo’s drop in production? Was it just small sample size? If he is a 4.4 point per game player this trade makes a lot of sense. I would view him more as a 6 per game player with CF, LF,RF eligibility.
Dane Dunning is Baseball America’s 95th best prospect in the latest rankings and made 7 starts this past season with numbers like this Whip 1.11, 9.3K/9 and 3.4BB/9. He seems like a solid #3 in the making.
In my view if you take Dunning out of the trade it makes more sense. Gallo for Kopech seems about right. I’m not sure if Suplex likes Freeland more than I do or what but I have to side with Marshall here. If Freeland returns to 2018 form than it looks much better. If Gallo doesn’t bounce back it looks much better, but really the trade hinges on Kopech. One of those trade reviews where i look silly in a few years when Michal Kopech is the Cy young winner. Shoot your shot. 

Trade: TBD | Suplex City

He Won the World Series? Anthony Rendon Is Still Nonchalant - The New York Times

Suplex City trades away

TBD trades away

  • Casey Mize – $0 cc
  • Shane Baz – prospect
  • Yuli Gurriel – $10

 

Suplex City, I was happy to hear your positive feedback from the Trea Turner trade review. Keep those happy feelings in mind while you read this one.

Trading an elite bat for pitching prospects is a bad idea. Lets fast forward three years. Anthony Rendon is a stud offensive performer who is especially valuable in Dynasty Grinders because he has an elite wOBA. Casey Mize is… recovering from shoulder surgery? In the bullpen because he lacks fastball command? During his few starts in Detroit, Mize showed two elite out pitches, and a fastball that couldn’t find the zone. Maybe he figures it out and lives up to his billing as the 1-1 in the MLB draft. I hope so, because that is the Casey Mize you paid for. I’d like this trade more if Mize was a buy low, but I think you paid full price. This trade would make more sense if it was Kieboom, Mize, Gurriel. Then at least you get a bat that has a higher floor and mitigate some of the pitcher risk. Pretty sure Josh and Joe do the deal with Kieboom instead of Baz. Side bar, in a vacuum, I do like Baz, just not in this deal.

TBD cements themselves as the top contender headed into the 2021 season. Rendon is the best piece they’ve added today and it didn’t even hurt them to acquire him. Oh, and they got a 5th rounder because Rendon wasn’t enough on his own to part with two risky prospects and a 36 year old 1B.

Trade: Marshall Law | H-Town Trashcan Punch

Marshall Law trades away
SP Lance McCullers ($10)
2021 3rd Round Pick

H-Town Trashcan Punch trades away
SP Dylan Cease ($0; cost controlled)
C Danny Jansen ($1; cost controlled)
CF Alexander Canario (prospect; cost controlled)
CF Hedbert Perez (prospect; cost controlled)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

My immediate reaction to this trade is that it favored Marshall Law by a good margin, but it’s probably a lot closer than that.

A cost controlled, $0 Dylan Cease strikes me as the most valuable individual piece here. Lance McCullers strikes me as the best. In 453.2 actual major league innings, McCullers has posted a 10.1 K/9, 0.69 HR/9, and a 3.24 FIP. Those are fantastic numbers and he’s only 26, so there’s room for more. The obvious downside here is that he’s coming off Tommy John and has never thrown more than 128.1 IP in a season. There are big durability concerns (sore shoulder in 2016, two back injuries in 2017, a month on the DL with elbow pain and then eventually TJ in 2018) and question marks along the lines of: if your team gets to the playoffs, will he be around to pitch in them? Cease, meanwhile, was just okay last year in his first 73 big league innings. He walked too many guys and gave up too many homers, both red flags, but we’re still just talking about 73 innings. I feel like if every team submitted their best offers for McCullers and Cease, the offers for Cease would be better because of the cost control aspect. But at $10, McCullers is priced fine. If you’re placing a ton of value on a guy being $10 over $0 and cost controlled, I think you’re likely hung up on the wrong thing, especially when it comes to starting pitching. Quality starting pitchers under $15 or so, cost controlled or not, are super valuable assets.

For me, Jansen is the big wildcard here. A year ago he was something like a top-5 dynasty catching prospect. Now he’s a throw in? He did have a horrible offensive year, but catchers take time to acclimate and offense their defense takes priority over their offense at first. He’s still just 24, has 55 grades on his hit tool and power, and has no one really to steal time from him in Toronto. Marshall is clearly weak at catcher and took advantage of a buy-low opportunity.

The picks and prospects are whatever. I like Canario a lot and think if he was available in our minors draft, he likely goes toward the back of the first round or definitely by the middle of the second. He’s a ways off but there’s big upside. Hedbert Perez is a lotto ticket. The third round pick is borderline nothing, despite the fact people tripped over themselves to trade for them this year. Perez was just taken with the second pick of the fourth round, so I’d argue Perez/3rd rounder cancel each other out here in terms of value.

I guess to me, I’d rather have the Marshall Law side because it comes with more diversified dart throws. I’d probably rather have McCullers’ skills/major league resume than Cease’s, but the sum of the parts feels marginally greater on this one.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

Sometimes I don’t read the review above before mine, but I’m glad I did this time because I’ll try my best not to harp on too many points already made. I would also rather have Cease than McCullers, mostly because Cease was one of the very top pitching prospects last year and now seems like the perfect buy low post hype guy to acquire him for cheap.  Cashing the Cease chip in, I’d want someone more reliable than Lance McCullers.  Gun to my head, I guess I’d take McCullers over Cease for 2020, but pretty decent chance I die on that.  It seems super close at least, and I think most would agree Cease’s long term upside is much more favorable at this point. At least with the Innings Limit weekly rule change, McCullers gains some more value because him not going super deep into games will be less harmful than it would have been on a weekly starts league.

I would rather have Canario than a 3rd round pick, I agree with Bailey’s assessment of where he would have went in this last draft.  If Canario continues his upward trajectory, he’s probably close to a top 1st half 1st round pick next year, but there’s certainly a very good chance he stalls and is worth less than a 3rd next year. Either way, I’d rather have the Cease/Canario side than McCullers/3rd round pick side.

I think Bailey was being too polite when he said Jansen was a top 5 catching prospect for a moment. I’m pretty sure he was #1 or 2 with Keibert Ruiz not too long ago. I’m not sure this is a star player, but certainly a nice add on for Marshall as is Hedbert Perez who possesses some tremendous, albeit remote, upside.  If these two pieces amount to nothing, it doesn’t seem to matter much, but I do believe at least one of these guys will  probably be worth more than a throw in a year from now.

I think the rational side of analyzing this trade will come down to who is better between Cease and McCullers and nothing else matters, and I not only lean Cease but the lotto tickets Marshall acquired here seem to put it over the top for me, even if they become nothing.  Either way, Marshall needed some minor league talent after the formal  trade request of Jazz Chisholm.

Trade: Marshall Law | Who’s Your Haddy?

Marshall Law trades away
SP Kevin Gausman ($23)

Who’s Your Haddy? trades away
2020 3rd round pick

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

This seems reasonable for both teams. Any time you see a guy traded for a 3rd-5th rounder this time of year, assume he was getting cut by the team trading him away. Marshall is blatantly parsing down his salary commitments to make a run at a big time free agent. Who could it be? I have a well-placed source that says he’s got his eyes set on throwing $80 or so at Jeff Samardzija and Mike Fiers, who he could almost definitely turn around and flip to a pitching starved team after auction for prospects no one’s ever heard of. By getting this third rounder, Marshall has jumped in front of all my recently-acquired 3rds, which is truly devastating for my morale.

For Haddy, Kevin Gausman is a solid dice roll. He’s had flashes of greatness (to be fair, he’s also had flashes of relieverness and Orioleness/turdness) but at the cost of $23 salary and a draft pick, I like it. After cutting unkeepable $112 Mike Trout (per my spreadsheet), Haddy will have tons of salary to squander, so this helps prevent that a bit ahead of auction.

HUSTLE’s toxic $0.02

Trade seems fine for both teams.  Marshall lets go of former HLR legend, Kevin Gausman , but instead of cutting him gets a 3rd round pick.  So, that’s a win for him.  For Haddy, he makes a de facto auction purchase via trade. I think $22 is about what Gausman would go for, assuming he’s in the rotation, so adding a 3rd pick to secure a guy you like is probably a good move. It’s a low upside acquisition, but also a low cost one. I like it for both teams given their current roster construction.

Trade: TBD | Organized Chaos

TBD trades away
3B Bobby Dalbec
2020 3rd Round Pick

Organized Chaos trades away
SP Matthew Liberatore
2020 2nd Round Pick

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

Prospect for prospect trades are kinda fun.

Organized Chaos has a gaping hole at 3B and so maybe Bobby Dalbec gets called up this year and helps. OC also has a bunch of pitching prospects and pitching prospects are fickle, so who knows which, if any, will become something good. Meanwhile, TBD is flush with 3B because they were given stud cost controlled 3Bman Matt Chapman for a slapdick prospect that will hopefully one day be as good as Matt Chapman already is but in the distant future, after the next MLB labor strike etc, and also they have Kris Bryant, Yuli Gurriel, and Eduardo Escobar on their 3B depth chart. TBD is truly a yearly 3Bman powerhouse. Great job, Josh. Basically Dalbec was totally superfluous so hey, might as well add a Rays pitcher.

Yeah, this is a fair trade. My favorite part is the pick swap. Eight picks was apparently the difference between Dalbec and Matt Liberatore and damn it, TBD just wasn’t doing this deal unless they moved up. They stole a move right out of Marshall Law’s playbook and executed it to perfection. I respect it.

I like this trade for both teams. Seems fair and fine and good. And as always, the destination doesn’t even matter. It’s about the experience. The thrill of the negotiation. Metaphorically it’s like fishing. The thrill of the fight is more exciting and fun than the actual catch. But to have that excitement it takes the fish and the angler to be active participants. Reeling in a fish that isn’t doing much isn’t that rewarding. That’s my big takeaway from this trade.

Trade: Hustle Loyalty Respect | Organized Chaos

Organized Chaos trades away

Hustle Loyalty Respect trades away

  • SS Carlos Correa ($89)
  • SP Ian Anderson (prospect)
  • 2020 2nd Round Pick

Jordan’s Thoughts

I think most people look at trades and shake out roughly how they value players going each direction. Freddie Freeman is a great player at a valuable price. Carlos Correa is arguably a better player, at a more expensive price, however he spent half of this year hurt and he seems to be far from reliable.

Dansby Swanson is 25 years old now and just finished his 3rd straight professional season as a below average hitter. Dansby shows flashes of his capability as a hitter. But, I’m not as high on his future as some others are. If Swanson wasn’t a first overall draft pick, I’m certain people would have moved on from his status already.

Where do you land on Ian Anderson? As someone who’s traded him before. You kind of hate to lose the potential he brings. But, you know its fleeting. I think its way too early to truly call out a winner here for either side. I think given the contexts of each of the teams. I slightly prefer betting on Correa. That’s a gamble at best.

I guess at the end of the day I would have considered Freddie Freeman pretty much untradeable. He’s such a sturdy player to build around. Correa can be better. Ian Anderson might legendary. Fun trade!

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

So where Hustle Loyalty Respect is seemingly giving points away by downgrading from Carlos Correa to Dansby Swanson, he’s also more than making up for that by going to Freddie Freeman from… uh, Garrett Cooper… as his 1Bman. To me, the gap between Correa and Swanson is palatable, especially when you bake in injury histories. The gap between Freeman and Cooper is enormous. Also HLR is saving $13, which is not quite nothing but mostly nothing. It also cost a pretty good pitching prospect and a 2nd round pick, so there’s that. I do know that lots of people have wanted Ian Anderson in trade in the last year or so. Ditto for Freeman. One interesting angle: HLR has had Correa on the trade block forever and he never got moved. Freeman, as best I can remember, has been untouchable. So I think out of Freeman and Correa, Freeman’s been the more coveted asset leaguewide, probably.

Anyway, ballparking it, I’d guess this is something like a 300-400 uptick in 2020 projected points for HLR. Possibly more. It’s a pretty big short-term win, I think. My numbers could also be way off because I did no actual math, yay!

For Organized Chaos, it’s weird in the sense that it subtracts that same amount of points and brings on a super high salary and I’m not totally sure why. If you’re giving up that many points, it signals you’re punting in 2020, but if you’re punting in 2020, Correa’s a weird guy to look to build around for 2021 just based on salary and how the league tends to view high salaries. He’s a great player if he’s giving you 7 points a game at $100 or whatever to keep, fine. My concern is that he’s played in just one full season and only played in 75 this year. Just strikes me as a big investment of talent and salary poured into a player that might not actually be reliable.

My guess would be that Chaos feels like sliding Pete Alonso from UT to 1B and then filling SS with Correa is his best bet moving forward in terms of filling his lineup and having flexibility. I’d still rather have the Freeman/Swanson side here and I don’t honestly think it’s too close, salaries and all that hoopla considered. I wonder what Chaos does from here. I feel like he needs to go add more pieces now.

Trade: Marshall Law | Long Ball to LF

Marshall Law trades away

$5 Auction budget 2020
2021 Draft Pick, Round 4 (Marshall Law)
2020 Draft Pick, Round 3 (The Process)

Long ball to LF (Johnnywise) trades away
Taillon, Jameson ($22)

 

hustle’s toxic $0.02

Really like this trade for Marshall. First and foremost, he gave up nothing. The picks are largely irrelevant. There should be a good sleeper available in the middle of round 3, but is LeavittBall going to be able to nab that one guy? History and track record says probably not.  Marshall is committing $22 in Taillon’s salary for 2020 and $5 as a sweetener to LB for the right to own Taillon for $24 in 2021.

I think if Taillon was healthy and in auction for 2020, he probably goes above $50.  Pirates cleaning house and having a new pitching coach can only be a plus for all Pirates pitching.  Chances are you aren’t spending under $25 in auction and getting a good SP to keep. Last year I think Domingo German was probably the only pitcher in that range that actually seems like a great keep for 2020, and even he might have trouble getting a rotation spot.

Anyway, it’s a good allocation of basically $27 budget  for Marshall, even if he won’t see meaningful points until 2021.   Taillon won’t even count as a roster spot because he’ll have precious IL eligibility. There’s even a non zero chance that Taillon gets Marshall some meaningful points in September.

For LeavitBall, I’m not quite sure what to make of this. The $5 in theory gives him more ammunition to get a big name in auction, and I’m sure if that’s the plan, other moves for cash are probably in the pipeline. That being said, I’m not sure giving up an actual asset for a mid round pick and $5 makes much sense regardless of the plan. This seems more confusing to me because LeavittBall has plenty of budget due to his 2 best moves in DynastyGrinders history 1) Picking up Ronald Acuna of the waiver wire and 2) Picking up Juan Soto off the waiver wire.  My guess is Leavitt was anxious to trade and Marshall was the only one willing to play ball. I think some of the other teams who have a lot of budget and have publicly/privately declared themself out for 2020, would have benefitted from a $24 Taillon in 2021.   Keith, if you’re reading this review, let me know.

Anyway, this trade ultimately Seems Fine (TM), but I do like the forward thinking by Marshall here, and I’m not quite sure it even puts a dent in his present, which a trade like this generally should. I look forward to Leavitt’s public explanation of this trade, maybe I am missing something.

Leavitt’s public explanation: Good review. Maybe after reading it I should have been a little more patient, but as much as I like Taillon he is out for the year with no guarantees to be the same after a 2nd TJ surgery. I wasn’t about to waste 25 dollars of my budget on a 0. I tried to acquire a few prospects I liked but that didn’t go anywhere so I added a few dollars to his draft pick offers and took something for nothing in my view. I bought Garrett Richards for 5 dollars last year, I don’t think a guy out for the year was getting much more than 20, specially with this auction primed to be better with the new rules in place.

 

 

BAILEY’s Thoughts

Hustle stole most of my thoughts about this trade, much like I stole Max Scherzer in a trade once.

The picks are nothing. The $5 is nothing (yay, $5 extra you can throw at Mike Leake!). Granted, for 2020 at least, Jameson Taillon is also nothing. But a year ago he was roughly a top-25 overall SP and he’ll be back and still young, albeit with a laundry list of injuries, in 2021. So for Marshall, this is a long-term investment of just auction budget and no actual acquisition cost. I like that. We see every single year that the auction is brutal. Teams bring in tons of cash thinking they’re going to land someone awesome and instead overpay mediocre players that won’t be kept beyond that year anyway, like $63 Yusei Kikuchi or $32 Adam Jones. So Marshall essentially flushed some percentage of his future auction cash now rather than later but added an asset that feels a lot safer and with more upside.

Hustle noted that “if Taillon was healthy and in auction for 2020, he probably goes above $50,” but I would actually throw out that if Taillon, in his injured state, made it to auction this year, he’d go for at least $30 just because there’s a half dozen teams with more than $200 to spend. So kudos to Marshall for sniffing that out and getting this done now.

For Long Ball, I hope this is just “I want to cut this dead 2020 salary anyway, so I may as well take this and be done with it” and not “I listed a bunch of stuff on my trade block and the thing with the cheapest salary is the only thing anyone wants because oMg SaLaRy AnD cOsT cOnTrOl.” There’s no telling. I do think he got effectively nothing and might have done better waiting around for some of the tankers with budget space to check in. But maybe not. Sometimes the bird in hand is just better.

Thank you to both owners for taking a brief break from FANTASY FOOTBALL SZN to partake in this trade.