The Evil Otters trades away 2022 Draft Pick, Round 4 (The Evil Otters
The Process trades away Aguilar, Jesús ($12)
The Evil Otterstrades away Cabrera, Miguel ($53)
The Processtrades away Amaya, Miguel
HUSTLE’S TOXIC $.02: I guess we can look at this trade as 1 trade, or 2, it doesn’t really matter. Miguel Cabrera seems like an easy cut at his contract after this season, but I probably would have shopped around harder than to settle for a catcher in A ball who doesn’t particularly have a high ceiling. I’d argue a 3rd round pick might be better than Amaya. Fangraphs does have Amaya at 55 hit and power, which if it comes true would certainly be an above average catcher, but this seems like years away and Amaya might need a team change. Not a prospect I would have targeted per Hustle Media’s Prospect Rankings™. Perhaps Kyle should have put Miguel Cabrera on the #tradeblock, but then again in this league a guy over 30 with an expensive contract it’s basically implied “no interest”. I like this trade a lot for Ferns because he got a guy who fits a positional need and will play almost every day, and has a chance to be better than he has shown this season, and he got him for close to free. As Miguel Cabrera wasn’t going to be part of the Evil Otters following this season, it’s not like Kyle lost much. After his team’s previous owner traded a bunch of draft picks and quit the league, Kyle has been rebuilding through prospect trades and pickups, so it makes sense to get a guy at least interesting.
The second trade actually does do quite a bit to balance this in my eyes for Kyle. Getting Jesus Aguilar for basically free seems like a nice gamble. Aguilar was borderline elite last year and through struggles and playing time has been an afterthought. It’s not a bad decision to keep him on your bench to see if he gets traded or hot (and starts games) for the price of nothing. Aguilar is a potential keeper, whereas Miguel (Cabrera to be clear) has no potential keepability. For Ferns, he was in a roster crunch. I’ve been there, so I get it. Better to get something than nothing.
This was kind of too many words to talk about Miguel Amaya and Jesus Aguilar today, but I’m at work and had nothing better to do. However we spend Memorial Day, let us all remember the great trades over the years in Dynasty Grinders history. Kyle may have gotten Jesus Aguilar for free after Ferns got Miguel Cabrera for free, but free players has been an institution in Dynasty Grinders since 2016 as well as trading Miguel Cabrera
Let us take a stroll back down memorial lane 3 years ago when Ferns once again acquired Miguel Cabrera.
Capital City Ironmen trades away Gray, Sonny Ruiz, Rio Zunino, Mike 2017 Draft Pick, Round 3 (The Foundation) Tropeano, Nick Ruiz, Carlos Lee, Zach Cabrera, Miguel
Jordan’s thoughts: Upton is a tiny stretch at the 50 dollar plus mark for his 850 points last year and 808 point projection next year. The projection does seem oddly pessimistic for the 31-year-old outfielder. Anything like 2017 or even 2018 with a few more games played and he’s easily worth the auction price tag.
Mountcastle is the number 2 prospect for one of the worst farm systems in the majors. He’s likely to make it at some point. He did hit a decent 121 wRC+ in AA as a 21-year-old last season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Orioles give him a shot in 2019, but he seems years away from being meaningfully useful.
I like this trade for TBD more so than Evil Otters. I get what Otters is doing and spending a slight premium for an All-Star capable of being great again isn’t a bad idea. I just have experience the with Upton brothers and I would rather miss on them.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02: Let us take a trip down Mountcastle Lane
Team Hydra trades away 2018 Draft Pick, Round 2 (Team Hydra) Mountcastle, Ryan
Preseason Double Stuffs trades away Mountcastle, Ryan
Capital City Ironmen trades away
Chirinos, Yonny Mountcastle, Ryan
Evil Otters trades away
TBD trades away
Upton, Justin ($56+)
Evil Otters trades away
Mountcastle, Ryan (ML)
Death, Taxes, Trading for Ryan Mountcastle. A Dynasty Grinders tradition like no other. Owned my nearly 1/3 of the league. In the hearts of 16/16 teams. His quest to the majors is a journey we are now all invested in.
I like this trade for the team that won’t name itself. They were going to cut Upton and find themselves in a rare position of not having prospects, so they picked up on who should certainly be owned. Well at least they think he should be owned, and the 4 previous owners did too.
I also like this trade for Kyle. I’m sure if Bailey would be writing this review he’d give much praise to Kyle for being competitive and buying. He’d have some sort of snarky remark about how more teams are tanking than competing. Me on the other hand? I take some weird glee in watching the auction get weaker and weaker.
“But Hustle, Mike Leake went for $35 dollars last year, do you really want to see that happen?”
Capital City Ironmen trades away
Manaea, Sean (probably $3)
Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
$20 2018 Auction
Disclaimer 1: I have not written about someone else’s trade since the deadline, so excuse me if I’m rusty.
Joe TBD Rawlings: [paraphrasing, profanity redacted] I don’t like this trade for Ferns.
I choose to review this trade as Manea for $20 because I assumed this deal was going to be made after I was kicked out of a 3-way. If I come off as bitter or petty in this review, I agree with your assessment… but in reality that’s no different than any other review.
I thought $20 for Manea was fine, I actually may have liked it more for Ferns. Ferns buying low on a cost controlled pitcher with what I view as excess auction cash. Seems prudent. PSDS could be a good team next year if a lot of things break right, but I’d say most likely they are a year away. With that mind, why not spend excess cash in 2018 for a guy who will be very reasonably priced in 2019, and if his price goes up a ton, that’s probably a good thing.
Manaea was good in the first half, velocity dipped and was bad in the second half (PUT STATS HERE). If he’s better next year, Ferns has a good rotation piece that will help him next year and beyond, and relatively well priced. If Manaea sucks, then Ferns spent $20 +$3 on a bad pitcher in a rebuilding year… which becomes irrelevant because it’s no worse than busting on a player in the auction which almost all of us will do. This is slightly better because he has the upside of a controlled cheaper asset. Thus I did like it for Ferns. It’s low risk and Manaea can certainly rebound.
For Bailey, who is cash strapped, $20 to sell low on what was once a much better asset doesn’t seem too much of a sell low. Additionally, after 2 straight seasons of mismanaging his money in the auction, does $20 really matter? If his incompetence in managing auction money leads him to lucking into the 2018 Morton again, you just have to shrug and say “good job”.
I legitimately thought this was a good trade for Ferns, but then I saw Mountcastle was included in the deal and I soured just a little bit. I’m pretty sure both parties would have done the trade for $20, Bailey can correct me or pretend otherwise. I think Ferns should have probably pushed harder to keep Mountcastle, I don’t think anyone is in the position to just be giving away borderline top 100 prospects in a league where 400 will be carried next year, let alone rebuilding teams. Mountcastle is fine (PUT STATS HERE), probably a jabroni, but would have been good enough to make it on my farm team, and that’s the Hustle Media (TM) #1 ranked farm team, so he has some stand alone value. He’s on the Orioles, so that’s probably more exciting for Bailey.
Mountcastle probably pushes me to liking this trade more for Bailey just because he gets back some future potential to balance out Manaea’s loss for one year of extra cash. If Manea rebounds, this works out well for Ferns.
To quote Andrew Bailey from his own rap
“Over 79 from Bellinger and 59.5 from Votto
Seriously guys, trade with @ferns, it’s like hitting the lotto”
I admire Ferns ability to keep trading with Bailey, it shows character to keep getting up after knocked down. They have traded together at least 4 or 5 times. The Miggy for Urias trade might still work out for Ferns depending on if Urias ever pitches again, but at worst it’s probably a wash with how expensive Miggy is and his back problems, but the others seemed to go in Bailey’s favor. This one seems relatively low risk unless Mountcastle blows up in 2018.
Per Dan Beachler’s request, here is a “how I went from worst to first” post. I suppose technically I wasn’t worst last year, and by head-to-head record I wasn’t first in 2017 either. (I was first in points!) But hey, here we are.
I should preface this by pointing out what should already be obvious: there’s a ton of luck involved in fantasy sports. Even if you talk fantasy sports a lot, for example, you’re going to find that you won’t uncover all the answers.
I thought the team I assembled in 2016 would compete. Then, Miguel Cabrera (.340 wOBA in April/May) and Joey Votto (.276 wOBA in April/May) started painfully slow. They were supposed to be my offensive anchors. Tyson Ross, a 32.52 points per game starter in 2015, got hurt in his first start and missed the season. Carlos Carrasco, my best pitcher, missed all of May. Sonny Gray turned into a pumpkin. Alex Rodriguez had a .293 wOBA in April/May. Of the first seven guys I won at our inaugural auction, only Johnny Cueto was good or even useful through the season’s first six weeks or so.
All of that is blind, dumb luck. I don’t control injuries. I don’t control Votto, one of the best hitters of our generation, hitting like Jose Peraza for over a month.
I certainly left money on the table that first auction and probably relied too heavily on boring, useful bench types as starters. I legitimately thought a cheap Trevor Plouffe was an acceptable starting 3B option. I thought I could platoon the White Sox catchers last year, an idea that played out so poorly I may as well have just played the year without a catcher slot. But mostly, my team went bust in 2016 because of random stuff that could happen to anybody. Even if they’d all stayed healthy and produced early, I probably wouldn’t have been a great team. But because that stuff did happen, I decided in May to start reworking my team by trading Cabrera and Gray for picks and prospects. That was the first step in climbing out of the cellar and to the top…
Sending Miggy and Gray to the Preseason Double Stuffs for Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, Brett Phillips, Jorge Soler, and draft capitol is really what ignited my team into 2017. Bellinger, as a rookie, hit at a 1.737 points per plate appearance clip for me at a $0 cost. That’s elite production. Again, I can’t control that Bellinger hit. But he did and it helped.
The one thing I will say is, I targeted prospects that I thought would debut in 2017. Because (a) my team sucked in 2016, so if they debut and their clock starts, that’s a ding in value; and (b) points now are better than points later. I’m not super interested in an 18-year-old prospect in Single A when there’s a comparable 22-year-old prospect on the cusp of the majors. In the case of this specific trade, the Double Stuffs happened to have a few near-MLB guys that fit the bill. And I love Ian Happ, so. Obviously, there’s no science involved. The Cubs could’ve promoted Happ last year. The Dodgers could’ve called Bellinger up in September. I can’t control that stuff either. But I do think it’s possible to hedge within reason and if your goal is to get better quickly, you won’t do it with teenagers unless you’re using them exclusively as trade currency.
Happ, Soler, and the draft pick acquired from the Double Stuffs — which I assumed would suck but became the second overall pick — didn’t score me a ton, really. I did have Happ in my lineup 25 times at 5.76 points per game, so that’s pretty good. But 25 starts isn’t swinging things much one way or another. But these pieces ended up helping later on.
My other big trade was swapping Cueto for JP Crawford, Aaron Judge, and a first round pick. More on Judge in the step below. But also, damn, I had and traded Judge. Frowny face.
I should note here also that not going full scale blow-up mode helped. Hanging onto Votto and Carrasco is as big a reason as any that my team got good. The offers I got for these players were, frankly, pitiful, so that made things easy. But I could have very easily dumped them for picks and lukewarm prospects and gone into auction with $350 or whatever. I’m glad I didn’t.
Step 2: Acquiring good veterans from over-budget teams for picks and prospects at below market rates
I think this was more impactful to my team than Bellinger. Because I “tanked” the season, I was able to build up a solid minor league system and a nice cache of draft picks. But picks and prospects rarely score points. So in the off-season, when teams way over budget shopped quality veteran players, I cashed out some of those assets and bought. And because I’d sucked so badly that I had loaded up on picks and prospects, selling some didn’t mean leaving the cupboard bare.
I acquired a way overpriced Andrew McCutchen for Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Billy Hamilton, and I think a second round pick. Cutch mostly bounced back in 2017 (1.438 PT/PA), thankfully. I couldn’t have controlled that either, but I’m comfortable betting on a player with an elite track record. It paid off. I think that’s the key to a quick rebuild. If you’ve got budget space, use it ahead of auction and buy low to lock in a guy you think can bounce back. I think budget space is worth much more pre-auction than during auction, when you’re left picking through the risky players no one wanted. I also think if your team sucks like mine did but you want to quickly improve, you need to gamble. You need to overpay a guy or two and hope for a return to form. Also, you won’t likely have an opportunity to buy a recently elite talent at auction. And if you do, there may only be one or two of those guys, so you’ll have competition.
I also bought Russell Martin for a second round pick. Martin’s another efficient, boring veteran player. But my catcher position was the worst in the league in 2016. Martin helped fixed that.
One other trade was working a three-way swap with The Foundation and Hustle Loyalty Respect that effectively landed me Neil Walker and the 16th overall pick for the 4th overall pick. HLR used the pick to take Blake Rutherford, who I think got hurt. I took Franklin Perez with the 16th pick. Today, I think Perez is more valuable than Rutherford, though to be fair, Rutherford got hurt. Even if Rutherford’s more valuable, they’re both top-100 guys. To me, any difference is negligible. But even if Rutherford hadn’t gotten hurt, there’s no chance he (or whichever other available prospect) was scoring at a 1.338 PT/PA clip like Walker did, and doing so right now. Points now > points later, and prospects are fickle, so the guy who goes 4th and the guy who goes 16th could very easily switch fortunes over a single season. At the time, I just felt like I was slightly downgrading a prospect in exchange for making a big upgrade to my current 2B spot, which was a big weakness in 2016.
Then I acquired Nelson Cruz and Adrian Beltre, who presumably had affordable prices because of their age and their team’s budget situation. Again, if you’ve got budget space, attacking the trade market is worth it. Beltre cost me Amed Rosario, an elite prospect, but that’s really where stacking prospects in 2016 helped. Having JP Crawford meant feeling more comfortable shipping out Rosario.
Of course, both those old dudes could’ve fallen apart. But my team was garbage in 2016. If they did fall apart, oh well, I’m in the cellar again in 2017 and then I just cut those guys and have the cap space back. But there weren’t hitters this good in the auction (granted at the time of the trades, the auction pool was a mystery), or at least players less risky. The highest paid hitters at auction were Adam Jones, Adrian Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Lorenzo Cain. There’s some hindsight present, of course, but I’m not sure pre-auction anyone would’ve honestly felt like any of those guys were better, more efficient hitters than Cruz or Beltre. If you’re cool with a multi-year rebuild, by all means, ignore trading for old dudes like this. But I think it’s prudent to do it if you want to try winning money instead of just sinking money into a multi-year plan.
I also traded Judge for Matt Holliday, and that proved very stupid. In Holliday, I saw a one-year rental with a Giancarlo Stanton-esque batted ball profile and a cheap ($10) salary. I ended up starting Holliday 57 times for 5.9 points per game, so while he didn’t go bonkers like Judge did, he did help the cause. And with regards to Judge, his 2017 season was something I don’t think anyone saw coming. I offered him to several teams and no one bit. I had to include Grant Holmes along with Judge to secure Holliday. So yeah, sometimes trading prospects for vets will backfire, but in general I think it’s a solid, less risky strategy. I’d be curious what Dan thought he was getting with Judge when he made this trade, especially since I know he’s an old guy lover as well.
One thing I’m curious to see this off-season is if over budget teams continue selling their guys short to “get something instead of nothing,” or if teams feel more comfortable dumping to auction. Cruz was had for Dan Vogelbach and a first round pick. I liked Vogelbach as a prospect and obviously Team Hydra did too, but in retrospect, might those guys have figured out a way to keep Cruz’s bat? Or might they have been better sending him to auction and seeing if maybe they could buy him back cheaper? I’m not convinced giving teams discounts on good players is effective, even if the alternative is cutting and “getting nothing.”
Step 3: Not screwing up the auction
I notoriously left like $21 on the table at our first auction. But I also made some awful bids. Buying into A-Rod’s resurgence was dumb. I came away from auction with two 1B’s and UT player, effectively destroying all my lineup flexibility.
Once again, luck played a role here. I didn’t expect almost 900 points from a $1 Zimmerman. I liked his batted ball profile, but come on. I also didn’t think Morton would be more than a back-end starter, and he ended up being my most consistent pitcher and a solid SP2. I didn’t even want him. It just ended up being the end of the auction, he was the last starting pitcher available, and I wasn’t leaving money on the table again. Owings filled multiple crucial positions for only $8. I overpaid for Cervelli at $17, but he was a nice compliment to Martin because, again, my catcher spot needed help.
The thing about the auction is, all the players are supremely risky. Teams will find ways to keep or trade “sure things.” And so if you rely too heavily on auction, you’re lending yourself to luck. If Morton and Garcia don’t give me quality starts, my auction stinks and my team suffers. But I started Morton 21 times at 30.43 points per start and Garcia 14 times at 24.04.
The lesson here, maybe, is to just give yourself fewer dart throws to botch. Acquire talent you have conviction about pre-auction rather than finding yourself in a spot where your money is going to Shelby Miller or Francisco Liriano, and you’re totally uninspired either way. Your mileage may vary, of course. Having a bunch of money at auction is fun, if nothing else.
As part of that Cabrera/Gray trade, I secured the second overall pick in last year’s draft. I took Nick Senzel. I like him a whole lot. But I love Giancarlo Stanton and his moonshot home runs. And so in mid-May, I landed Big G for Senzel, Blake Snell, and a future first round pick.
From May 11 forward, Stanton was the third-highest scoring hitter behind Votto and Charlie Blackmon. As much as I like Senzel, you simply have to trade guys like him for elite production now. It helps that Stanton finally stayed healthy, but even if he hadn’t, we all know what he does when he is. In our format, he is an elite fantasy producer on a rate basis. It was a no-brainer for me.
As for Snell, well, I like him still, but if I wanted to win this year I knew I couldn’t sit around waiting and hoping that he learns how to throw strikes and pitch deep into games. The downside to young pitchers is they sometimes are slow to put everything together. If next year Snell’s awesome and cheap, oh well. I’ll still be happy with several mammoth months of Giancarlo.
Step 5: Keep on buying stuff that helps
During the course of the season, once I saw that my team was pretty good, I just kept trying to add. In a series of deals, I sent prospects Corey Ray, Albert Abreu, Julio Urias, Happ, and Jake Faria off for the likes of Max Scherzer, Miggy, JA Happ, Jason Vargas, and Danny Salazar. All those moves did not pan out.
Reunited on my team, I slotted Miggy into my lineup 31 times and he scored at a 2.61 point per game rate. That’s abysmal. Despite his highest hard hit rate since 2014 and the best line drive rate of his career, Miggy gave me nothing. He performed worse than any random bench player I already had, in fact. In Urias, I paid little. But I felt like I had to take the gamble. I expect Miggy to get his back right this off-season and return to an elite level in 2018. He reminds me a whole heck of a lot like McCutchen last year. His price seems way too high (he’ll get a raise to $75), but how can you easily bet against one of the best hitters the game has seen in the last decade plus? Like, would you really rather two $35 lottery tickets at auction (in the 2017 auction, Adrian Gonzalez + Carlos Rodon = $76) than one player a single injury-hampered season removed from being an elite hitter?
Meanwhile, Happ was a fantastic addition for me, scoring 28.04 points a game in 14 starts. I started Salazar seven times for more than 30 points per start. Scherzer didn’t do much for me in the playoffs, but in total, he logged six starts at 32.67 a pop. Net total, these were good, albeit short-term, trades for my team. Corey Ray wasn’t scoring me 392.5 points like Happ did. Albert Abreu didn’t drop a 65 point start on my roster like Salazar.
Again though, these trades could look brutal in just a few months. What if Scherzer gets hurt? What if Urias overcomes his injury? What if Ray ascends and JA Happ grows old quick? I don’t know. But I think if you’re in a spot to seize a chance to win now, you need to be okay with these types of calculated risks.
The other thing to note is that the in-season trades didn’t necessarily have a ton to do with going worst to first. The Stanton trade, sure. The other trades just bolstered a team that had been mostly assembled in the off-season.
I think the biggest reason my team got it’s shit together so quickly was simply putting in the work to do it. When a good player became available, I asked for a price tag. When I saw a team was way over their budget, I inquired about expensive players with good track records. I wasn’t too worried about riskiness because well, my team was a dumpster fire. Getting worse than bad isn’t much of a risk. Staying worse, and paying into a league to not even try to fight for wins now, seems way riskier to me. I placed the highest value on today and worried less about if the prospect I’m sending away will be a fantasy monster in 2021 (or in Judge’s case, 2017) or if all the old guys will decide to retire simultaneously.
Clearly, there’s a strategy to this game. If there wasn’t, we probably wouldn’t play. What’d be the point?
But ultimately you only control so much. I think the only way to really approach things is to give yourself the best hand possible and hope for the best. In hold ’em poker, a 2/7 will beat a K/K, for example, some of the time. But the odds say more often than not, the stronger hand will prevail. So I just tried to do stuff that I thought made my hand stronger, then accepted all the luck I could get.
Andrew’s Thoughts:I’m still not a Rougned Odor fan. Too much variance. He seems to either make an out, usually by strike out, or hit a home run, which is a little more appealing in a 5×5 roto league than a H2H league. Worse, Odor has one of the most punchable faces in all of baseball. I’m firmly #TeamBautista. Still, this makes sense for Dusty, who gave up a prospect that’s like 2-3 years from scoring him points for a bench guy that he can just as easily cut in the offseason when he costs $31 (or more if someone slaps greed on him). I mean, yeah, Odor never walks so he has no real floor, but you could do way worse than a 30+ HR threat as a back-up.
For the Double Stuffs, this could be seen as flipping a $15 DJ LeMahieu for a toolsy outfield prospect that has just now started to sneak onto top-100 lists but, again, is a ways off. Looking at it that way is probably demoralizing though. Instead, just look at this transaction by itself and it’s fine. Because again, I’m cutting a $30+ Odor after the season. I imagine PDS was too. Odor has upside but that cost offsets pretty much all of it.
As for Trammell, well, I’m pretty sure I was baffled when Dusty paid budget money to move up and take him in our minor league draft. But I stand corrected. He is now a guy whose name appears on lists. And guess what? Getting your name on lists means you have trade value. I can’t find record of ever doubting Trammell here on the Dynasty Grinders dot com, but I remember doing so somewhere. And so this is me, taking responsibility for the things that I have said, and admitting that I was wrong some months back about the acquisition cost of this particular prospect.
Anyway, I’m pretty clearly okay in general with good teams acquiring bad salaries as bench or depth pieces and bad teams getting back reputable prospects for them instead of waiting around to cut.
Hustle’s Toxic $.02: Both these owners and teams should be commended for making this trade. They both wanted to make their teams better (I hope) and managed to find the courage to agree on terms despite a potential trade review looming.
PDS obviously sees Schoop as their 2b of the future and at $12 and almost averaging 7 ppg, Schoop is easily the better player and value going forward. Schoop has really cut down his Ks and while his BABIP is high, it’s not crazy high. It makes sense for PDS to get rid of Odor for a prospect they like. If Trammel is their guy, so be it, I’m not sure what their other options were. It was not that long ago when PDS traded DJ Lemeihu for Odor, so Odor’s stench on PDS has been quickly removed. That being said, with their cap space, they were probably better off with DJ and Schoop. Odor was one of the few players I pegged PDS to keep. With one less guy, I’d expect to see a lot of new faces on their team next season, I hope they enjoy the turnover.
For Dusty, he trades a borderline top 100 prospect for even more 2b depth. He has Cano at 2b, so Odor is pretty much looking at playing time on his team at Utility. With Taylor, Spangeberg, Priela, and Sogard… Odor might be just another guy on his team. That being said Odor does have some nice power potential and could be big down the stretch if he gets hot on the first place Oysters. It’s a low cost risk for a currently hot swinging Odor.
Andrew’s Thoughts: This seems alright. For Hustle, this cheaply helps fill the void of losing Carlos Correa. It also gives him a starter today at short against me, which is the part of this trade I find awful.
Speaking of awful, Brandon Crawford has been. He’s at 0.8261 points per plate appearance right now. To put that in perspective, Byron Buxton is at 0.8779. That’s gross. Kudos to the Double Stuffs for getting anything at all for Crawford. Crawford’s been good enough in the past that maaaaaybe a good stretch to end the year makes him keepable at $20, but probably not. The Double Stuffs lone option at SS is now Jorge Polanco and they still made this deal, which tells you all you need to know.
Kyle Funkhouser is whatever. I’ve heard of him, so that’s good. He’s a college pitcher so he should debut sooner than later. That’s nice. Also, he was acquired for a player worse than Buxton, so the price was definitely right.
Capital City Income trades away
Urías, Julio ($1, first controlled year)
Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Cabrera, Miguel ($73)
First things first. We must recall that a little over a year ago PDS acquired Miggy from CCI. In sum from these two deals Bailey got a 1st round pick (Senzel…which was the center piece for Stanton), Soler (which was a big piece in his acquisition for Mccutchen), IanHapp, Bellinger, and I guess Brett Phillips for damaged goods Urias and Blake Snell If I’m missing vital parts of these two transactions, I’ll be happy to edit.
CII gets reunited with Miggy. Miguel Cabrera is having a disappointing year and at his age, there’s a pretty high chance he’s not getting kept at $75. That being said, I don’t think he’s dead (unlike Urias). His numbers are down, most notably his slugging, but I kind of don’t buy one of the best hitters of all-time is done at 34. 5 points a game is a disappointment by Miggy standards, but I think better times are ahead. David Ortiz had some bad stretches in his mid 30s and was a superstar late, and I don’t think he was the hitter in his prime Miggy was.
I totally get a rebuilding and moving on from Miggy and getting whatever value you can, but looking at PDS’s roster there aren’t a lot of cost commitments here. I see well under $100 bucks of keepable pitching and probably under $250 of keepable hitting. I’d say those figures are conservative and should be lower I’d say at a minimum (without other trades) PDS is going to have a ton of cash in the next auction. Auction cash is great, I probably overrate it more than most people, but having good players is better. PDS current projected 2018 roster highlights seem to be JD Martinez, Schoop, Jordan Montgonery (one of the year’s best pickups) and I guess Lance Lynn. All nice players. . That being said, I think this core is going to struggle in 2018, which is perfect for Urias , because I don’t think he’ll be pitching much in 2018.
As a Dodgers fan, I hope I’m wrong, but Urias’ effective or even complete career may be over. I think Bailey was very wise to get what he could for Urias now, because the best case scenario is he’ll be an OK pitcher in 2019. He’s damaged goods.
“Urias’s injury sends shock waves through the Dodgers’ organization as only a handful of pitchers have ever had this surgery, and only Chris Young of the Royals has come back and pitched effectively at the Major League level after it. Other pitchers who had capsule surgery are Rich Harden, Mark Prior, and Johan Santana.”
Chris Young Royals upside! I mean, he won a World Series pitching for them. #ringz.
We were all really excited that first minor league draft and Urias was in the mix to be #1 overall. I think the shine has wore off considerably just because of this unfortunate injury. At least Urias will be DL eligible throughout the entire recovery process so a roster spot won’t be wasted. I expect Urias to give PDS very little if anything next year, but at least his $3 or whatever will be a drop in the bucket and won’t prevent them from spending on available assets.
Just for fun. JUST FOR FUN. Top 10 things I’d rather have than Julio Urias right now. (Again, I truly hope I’m wrong about Urias’ career.)
Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Pirela, José ($3)
Word on the street was Priela was on the market today. This trade was good for both teams. Priela isn’t a great major leaguer and Lopez isn’t a great prospect. I think Ferns got some more upside here. It’s essentially a free look at Lopez later this year. All it cost him was a relatively unknown Padres prospect that was picked up off the wire a little over a month ago.
Priela has averaged over 6 points a game so far and has been a very useful piece. I think those ppg comes down, but there’s certainly some value here. Dusty’s team already has great 2b/LF flexibility with guys like Cano, Chris Taylor, Gyorko, Gardner etc. Dusty didn’t need to do this trade, but at the same time I don’t think he gave up much. Lopez has a 4.41 FIP in AAA this year with an 8.6 k/9.
Fine trade for both teams in their current spots in the standings. I’m not sure which or either of these guys will be kept because it could go a number of ways for both these players in the 2nd half.
*Disclaimer: I felt since Dusty was involved with this trade, I should be allowed to mention his name. I’m not sure what his preference is on the matter, but for the sake of trade review integrity I must. Remember
We Talk Fantasy Sports trades away
DeSclafani, Anthony ($11)
Preseason Double Stuffs trades away
Garza, Matt ($3)
Hustle’s .02: I guess the most interesting part of this trade is that Desclafani was $11 in auction or as a keeper. He isn’t due back until August at the earliest. Desclafani was better in 2016 that I remember, but I think he goes for cheaper than $13 in auction. This was a dead player for WTFS and they got some pitching help.
Garza has produced double digit positive points in 5 consecutive games, which in 2017 is something. Averaging 22 points a game certainly isn’t exciting, but very useful in 2017 if he keeps that up and you play his matchups well.
He seems like a top 7 SP on WTFS’s current roster (maybe top 5), so this is a trade for WTFS vying for a playoff spot.
As for PDS, even though I do not like this trade for them, losing Matt Garza will more then likely not come back to haunt them.
This is a perfectly fine trade for both teams.
Matt Garza is very boring, but serviceable. WTFS needs pitching behind Max Scherzer in much the same way they need a time machine to go back and reverse the decision to keep Byron Buxton for $38. Garza’s been roughly a league average pitcher this year. I think he’s a decent, cheap guy to plug in for a while. If he’s decent, he could also be a keeper into 2018, though he’s unexciting enough that maybe you just toss him back into the pool.
The Double Stuffs’ season is over, so they get the younger guy with presumably higher upside in Anthony DeSclafani who might still be around next year. He was a 26.65 per start pitcher last year which is solid in Cincinnati. He’s hurt, but so what? At $13, they can keep him into 2018 if they want, or if he stays injured all year, just dump him. Whatever. I really don’t see a dramatic difference between trading Garza for some random, meh pitching prospect or trading him for DeSclafani, who may as well be a prospect too but has at least proven he can pitch in MLB.
Andrew’s Thoughts: I’m not a Rougned Odor fan at all really. His OBP last year was a crummy .296 and it’s down to .260 last year. He never walks. Basically, unless he hits a home run, he’s a zero for your team. He did hit 33 last year and has 12 so far this year, which is cool, but everyone is a home run hitter now.
To that end, LeMahieu only hit 11 home runs all of last year. And that’s playing half his games at Coors. So Odor’s power output from this season, in which he’s been a big disappointment, is better than LeMahieu’s last year, in his career season. DJ’s older and he’s boring, but his floor is pretty high.
If the costs were the same, sure, trade the boring safe guy for the flashy recent prospect with “upside,” especially if you’re retooling. I get that. In this case, I don’t really get paying an extra $14 for the riskier guy, particularly when, without walks and getting on-base, the upside doesn’t seem all that high. And LeMahieu isn’t 29 yet, so it’s not like he’s some old veteran that you need to cash out on now. But I guess if Odor suddenly decides to walk 8% of the time and stops hitting easy infield flies, there’s room for growth and the power will still be there. I just don’t feel very excited about keeping a $31 (minimum) Odor into 2018.
I like it for WTFS most, who have now freed up $14 for 2018. That money will assuredly help subsidize all Byron Buxton‘s -3 point days on their bench for another year.
I too like this better for WTFS. LeMahieu (not an actual DJ) was the better fantasy option this year and last and is half the price. The massive power difference between Odor and LeMahieu is washed away by the walk and strikeout rates. Unless Odor shows significant improvement in those areas, I don’t see this trade working out for Ferns.
That being said Odor is only 23 and 5 years to LeMahieu’s junior and certainly has time to improve and with the power has monster potential.