Take a look back at 2017 MLB top 100 prospects list. #3 on the list is our main man Victor Robles, he is followed by Vladdy, Eloy and Acuna. He was “the man” and then along came Juan Soto out of nowhere to be the man child who took Washington by storm. Soto, Vlad, Eloy and Acuna have left Robles in the dust and its easy to forget how highly touted he was.
Who is Victor Robles? I’m pretty sure he isn’t Lewis Brinson, but he sure looked like it in 2020. In 2019 he was 22 years old and hit 17 hr’s stole 28 bases, with a lackluster line of .255/.326/.419. It’s wasn’t great but he was only 22. Then in 2020 at age 23 in 168 at bats the offense was worse. k rate was up, bb rate was down, ISO was down. I’m still holding out hope and giving him another year but his star is dimming. If he puts up another 2020 line then you probably aren’t getting Nick Lodolo.
Do we really know anything about Lodolo? I know he was a first round pick that was supposedly polished and advanced , but we only have a meaningless micro sample in pro ball to go on. He was the first pitcher drafted in 2019 , so you would have to assume good things. I sure didn’t know much about Yajure. He was an international sign for a small bonus of 30,000 but has pitched quite well and made his debut out of the bullpen. Going forward if he continues to be a relief pitcher than there isn’t much to see here, but most of what I read says he has a floor of a 5th starter.
Definitely selling somewhat low on Robles here, but anyone who buys stocks knows its better to sell low than hold and watch all your value disappear. You have to know what you hold. If it was me I would have a hard time letting Robles go and would be holding and hoping he figures things out as I think the ceiling is still high, but in turning him into 2 near mlb ready pitchers there is potential this trade works out for either team or both. 2021 will tell us more.
Just going to give you my thoughts here without the typical effort of looking up stats and what not. Call it a first impression review. No hustle , but mad respect.
The Brew Crew tear down continues, but I really like this trade for the Brew Crew. H. Ryu was good last year in his first year for the Jays and he was good the year before with the Dodgers. Odds of him being healthy for a full season again?? I haven’t looked but I’m guessing he hasn’t had two full healthy seasons in a row. Maybe he is over his injury woes , but pitchers of this ilk are the ones you want to trade while the value is there. He is not the guy a rebuilding team should wait on and trade midseason, as his value could vanish quicker than your employment during a pandemic.
Matt Manning is the main reason I like this trade as he is a solid high ceiling pitching prospect who is getting close to major league time. Getting a top prospect from Hustle is no easy task, as he is tighter than an Otters pocket with his quality prospects. Rob Ray I think is more valuable under our new rules than the previous 7 start rule. The Jays will keep his starts to 5 IP most of the time , and I think he will be a good points per innings pitcher. Good buy low., under the old rules of 7 starts these pitchers don’t have as much value. Better to get a Robbie Ray and hope for a bounce back, then some B level prospect.
Ryu is obviously going to be a near elite pitcher when healthy and Hustle is hoping for that and paying for that here. All pitchers are injury risks, but i think Ryu would be high up on my personal list of risky pitchers. Oneil Cruz is in some legal trouble, high ceiling but for some reason he reminds me of Dominic Brown, maybe too long and lengthy to put a consistent swing together. A good flier for hustle; however, he was drafted by the bottom dwelling Foundation so can he really be called a prospect.
Hustle gets better, the rebuild gets some juice. Nice trade guys.
Suplex City, I was happy to hear your positive feedback from the Trea Turner trade review. Keep those happy feelings in mind while you read this one.
Trading an elite bat for pitching prospects is a bad idea. Lets fast forward three years. Anthony Rendon is a stud offensive performer who is especially valuable in Dynasty Grinders because he has an elite wOBA. Casey Mize is… recovering from shoulder surgery? In the bullpen because he lacks fastball command? During his few starts in Detroit, Mize showed two elite out pitches, and a fastball that couldn’t find the zone. Maybe he figures it out and lives up to his billing as the 1-1 in the MLB draft. I hope so, because that is the Casey Mize you paid for. I’d like this trade more if Mize was a buy low, but I think you paid full price. This trade would make more sense if it was Kieboom, Mize, Gurriel. Then at least you get a bat that has a higher floor and mitigate some of the pitcher risk. Pretty sure Josh and Joe do the deal with Kieboom instead of Baz. Side bar, in a vacuum, I do like Baz, just not in this deal.
TBD cements themselves as the top contender headed into the 2021 season. Rendon is the best piece they’ve added today and it didn’t even hurt them to acquire him. Oh, and they got a 5th rounder because Rendon wasn’t enough on his own to part with two risky prospects and a 36 year old 1B.
I feel like Marshall Law was definitely cutting $23 Elvis Andrus even though he now has no other SS on the roster. So this way, he at least gets something back. These prospects aren’t much, but Estevan Florial was at least on lists for a while and Osleivis Basabe presumably has as much upside as Misael Urbina, who he just traded away. The prospects in an Andrus trade are comparable or better than the ones in an Aaron Nola trade, even when only $15 salary separates the two players, what a world.
For H-Town, this is a little weird in that Andrus is his fourth shortstop (behind Manny Machado, who I assume he’s keeping, maybe not, Kevin Newman, and Luis Urias), but whatever. Depth is good. He obviously didn’t value these two prospects inherited from previous ownership and I can’t say I blame him. Might he have gotten Andrus cheaper at auction? Sure. Likely. But in my opinion it’s always better to enter auction needing less with fewer dollars to spend, rather than needing to buy 80% of a starting lineup with extra money to spend like Senior Squids or Who’s Your Haddy?.
Fair trade with two winners. The only loser here is me, for writing this review.
H-Town Trashcan Punch trades away
SP Dylan Cease ($0; cost controlled)
C Danny Jansen ($1; cost controlled)
CF Alexander Canario (prospect; cost controlled)
CF Hedbert Perez (prospect; cost controlled)
BAILEY’S THOUGHTS
My immediate reaction to this trade is that it favored Marshall Law by a good margin, but it’s probably a lot closer than that.
A cost controlled, $0 Dylan Cease strikes me as the most valuable individual piece here. Lance McCullers strikes me as the best. In 453.2 actual major league innings, McCullers has posted a 10.1 K/9, 0.69 HR/9, and a 3.24 FIP. Those are fantastic numbers and he’s only 26, so there’s room for more. The obvious downside here is that he’s coming off Tommy John and has never thrown more than 128.1 IP in a season. There are big durability concerns (sore shoulder in 2016, two back injuries in 2017, a month on the DL with elbow pain and then eventually TJ in 2018) and question marks along the lines of: if your team gets to the playoffs, will he be around to pitch in them? Cease, meanwhile, was just okay last year in his first 73 big league innings. He walked too many guys and gave up too many homers, both red flags, but we’re still just talking about 73 innings. I feel like if every team submitted their best offers for McCullers and Cease, the offers for Cease would be better because of the cost control aspect. But at $10, McCullers is priced fine. If you’re placing a ton of value on a guy being $10 over $0 and cost controlled, I think you’re likely hung up on the wrong thing, especially when it comes to starting pitching. Quality starting pitchers under $15 or so, cost controlled or not, are super valuable assets.
For me, Jansen is the big wildcard here. A year ago he was something like a top-5 dynasty catching prospect. Now he’s a throw in? He did have a horrible offensive year, but catchers take time to acclimate and offense their defense takes priority over their offense at first. He’s still just 24, has 55 grades on his hit tool and power, and has no one really to steal time from him in Toronto. Marshall is clearly weak at catcher and took advantage of a buy-low opportunity.
The picks and prospects are whatever. I like Canario a lot and think if he was available in our minors draft, he likely goes toward the back of the first round or definitely by the middle of the second. He’s a ways off but there’s big upside. Hedbert Perez is a lotto ticket. The third round pick is borderline nothing, despite the fact people tripped over themselves to trade for them this year. Perez was just taken with the second pick of the fourth round, so I’d argue Perez/3rd rounder cancel each other out here in terms of value.
I guess to me, I’d rather have the Marshall Law side because it comes with more diversified dart throws. I’d probably rather have McCullers’ skills/major league resume than Cease’s, but the sum of the parts feels marginally greater on this one.
HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02
Sometimes I don’t read the review above before mine, but I’m glad I did this time because I’ll try my best not to harp on too many points already made. I would also rather have Cease than McCullers, mostly because Cease was one of the very top pitching prospects last year and now seems like the perfect buy low post hype guy to acquire him for cheap. Cashing the Cease chip in, I’d want someone more reliable than Lance McCullers. Gun to my head, I guess I’d take McCullers over Cease for 2020, but pretty decent chance I die on that. It seems super close at least, and I think most would agree Cease’s long term upside is much more favorable at this point. At least with the Innings Limit weekly rule change, McCullers gains some more value because him not going super deep into games will be less harmful than it would have been on a weekly starts league.
I would rather have Canario than a 3rd round pick, I agree with Bailey’s assessment of where he would have went in this last draft. If Canario continues his upward trajectory, he’s probably close to a top 1st half 1st round pick next year, but there’s certainly a very good chance he stalls and is worth less than a 3rd next year. Either way, I’d rather have the Cease/Canario side than McCullers/3rd round pick side.
I think Bailey was being too polite when he said Jansen was a top 5 catching prospect for a moment. I’m pretty sure he was #1 or 2 with Keibert Ruiz not too long ago. I’m not sure this is a star player, but certainly a nice add on for Marshall as is Hedbert Perez who possesses some tremendous, albeit remote, upside. If these two pieces amount to nothing, it doesn’t seem to matter much, but I do believe at least one of these guys will probably be worth more than a throw in a year from now.
I think the rational side of analyzing this trade will come down to who is better between Cease and McCullers and nothing else matters, and I not only lean Cease but the lotto tickets Marshall acquired here seem to put it over the top for me, even if they become nothing. Either way, Marshall needed some minor league talent after the formal trade request of Jazz Chisholm.
Another Seems Fine™️ trade. Marshall is clearly using prospects to compete in 2020 and cashing in for Kyle Hendricks without dealing anyone too elite seems smart. Despite his lack of strikeouts, Hendricks is always someone who gets a lot of efficient innings which becomes important as we switch over to IP from starts. Hendricks also becomes a no doubt starter for Marshall Law each week, with his rotation having the likes of McCullers, Kopech, and Fried, some stability was certainly needed and probably still some to be desired.
Bailey purchased Hendricks for Joc Pederson, Brock Burke, Isan Diaz, and Cody Bolton near the deadline and then used him and turned him into this. It was a nice rental and tenure for former CCI legend Kyle Hendricks. The return is pretty close to what he paid for him, so that’s a win right there. He borrowed and used an asset at basically no interest. Which is a segue to my next point and nobody he got in return was particularly interesting. Both Diaz and Bracho make CCI’s farm considerably better than what it was, so kudos. With 30 roster spots for minor leaguers and moving to 35, you need guys, and these are certainly guys. As for Howie Kendrick, it was no secret to the league that he wanted to acquire him, so congrats to that. Kendrick was a monster in limited PAs last year, but if someone signs him to be a starter and his underlying skills stay in tact he’s a pretty valuable 1b/2b/3b option. On the flip side he is older and has almost never performed that well for a full season
Makes sense for both teams!
Jordan’s take
I got to see some of Aaron Bracho down in Lake County to close this season. The bat speed looks alright, but I question his pitch selection. These sorts of things tend to work themselves out in the long run, but he’s really going to have to adjust his torque if he wants to get to his full 15 HR upside.
Keith’s take
I knew Hendricks was on the block, but I didn’t think he’d be given away for free.
Fern’s take
Bailey got a bundle of players and the auction got weaker. Weird.
Elton’s take
Bailey trades for another 1bman. Typical. He still has a lot of $ to shed.
HADDY’s take
It’s November.
DAN’S take
I don’t make trades, but if I made a trade, it would be a championship move because a champion was making it.
TBD’S take
I would have offered more -Josh
I would have offered less -Joe
BAILEY’S take
I would have never traded away Kyle Hendricks if I knew everyone would review this trade.
Jobu adds a cheap bench hitter at the expense of a broken pitcher that he was probably going to cut anyway. Meanwhile, The Process punts a cheap bench hitter that he was probably going to cut for the right to hold onto a free agent pitcher that might sign somewhere interesting and show signs of health. It wouldn’t surprise me if both players end up at auction come March, but for now, this just seems like two teams moving on from guys they definitely don’t want to keep for guys that maybe, possibly, depending how the rest of the offseason goes, could be kept.
HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02
Some people would say “Get a life, and do some community service” rather than waste your time on a meaningless trade like this. I am not one of those people. Life is precious, but also life expectancy is almost 80 years in the United States. Thats a lot of time. You need stuff to fill in the gaps. Talking about Markakis for Danny Salazar for 5 minutes? That’s the real trade here. Was the time spent hashing this trade worth it in the grand spectrum of one’s lifetime? Is this review worth that time? These are the true difficult questions we need to ask ourselves, and sometimes the answers are difficult.
Ultimately, I like this trade for BOTH teams because they spent some time together, talked some baseball, and exchanged ideas to possibly (even though extremely unlikely) improve their Dynasty Grinder franchises for 2020. Good on you guys.
JobuNeedsARefill trades away
SS Alexander Vargas (prospect)
Two 2020 2nd Round Picks
BAILEY’S THOUGHTS
I like this deal for Jobu, adding a cheap 3Bman that put up a .369 wOBA last year. Honestly, I’m not a big Gio Urshela believer. He ran a high BABIP, doesn’t walk much, and probably got a lot of his power from the bouncy ball that may or may not return in 2020. I’m also not sure about his playing time. Having said all that, he’s undeniably a 28-year-old that costs a measly $7 and put up 1.548 points per plate appearance last year. That is all very good and I think you’re better off betting on real, actual production that just happened than on future picks. It’s still crazy to me that the league collectively looks at players that just did what Urshela did, then at his cost, and still seem to prefer fringe prospects that won’t debut for several years. So good on Jobu for taking the gamble that 2019 was legit. If it’s not, oh well, he’s out three prospects that won’t debut until sometime after MLB’s labor strike anyway.
For TBD, they seemingly don’t believe in Urshela either and will happily take a decent Yankee prospect and more picks to either strengthen one of the best farms in the league or flip whoever they draft to Senior Squids or Trumpa Loompas for whoever their best player is in May. It’s smart and I respect it. Good job, Josh.
The biggest loser in this trade is me, because four picks being moved means I had to update the draft sheet four times. I hated every second of it.
HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02
After reading Bailey’s review I have some thoughts. 1) Does anyone want to make a trade with just draft picks involved and 2) Where were you when Gio Urshella was on the block?
I prefer the picks here, because I don’t really believe in Urshella as more than just an average 3bman. Personally, I think one 2nd rounder should have been able to get it done. That being said, taking Urshella seems like a fine gamble for Jobu to make here. I think the Yankees will start him at 3b and if he hits anything close to like he did last year, he will stay, I’d lean he doesn’t. Either way, ultimately Seems Fine™️.
This trade seems even to me. I’d rather have McCullers, I guess, and I respect Marshall squeezing an extra shitpick out of an otherwise perfectly fair heads up trade. It’s the 56th overall pick, so Marshall has effectively locked up the draft rights to his choice of Chase Strumpf or maybe, just maybe, Rece Hinds. Oh man, wouldn’t that be something.
Hustle’s TOXIC $.02
This trade is all wild cards for me.I kind of don’t know what McCullers or Andjuar are. With the new IP limit rule, McCullers is protected somewhat even if he isn’t starting, so I like the floor of at least getting some innings every week with some decent strikeouts. If he bounces back to be a good starter, this is a pretty huge win for Marshall. Meanwhile, the Yankees are surely going to sign someone, will an infielder enter the mix? Will DH be clogged by Stanton? Is Andjuar the Yankees 1bman after Marshall traded FOR Voit and Bird? This trade is pretty hard to review, which probably means at the very least it seems fair.
Underrated part of the trade is this is yet another Marshall Trade where he receives a shitpick for literally no reason. If you think the 4th rounder was the reason Marshall did this trade, then I dunno. Sometimes it’s ok to say “No” to releasing free shitpicks. That being said, I do respect Marshall’s love for drafting minor leaguers. May the FV be in your favor.
TBD trades away
Sanchez, Gary ($35)
Wood, Alex ($9)
Hustle’s Toxic $.02
My knee jerk reaction is to always give TBD the benefit of the nod for a trade, they scout prospects well, so I just assume they kind of bought low on Keiboom after a forgettable major league debut and Baz is probably an Ace now. Whatever. The trade does seem OK. I look back on this old trade review where Elton originally gave up Sanchez (a slightly cheaper version of him) for 4 prospects, only one of which really has legs in 2020. So 2 full seasons later Sanchez gets moved for 2 prospects. Now, I’m sure all 4 of those prospects looked a lot better 2 seasons ago, but point remains, if only one of these TBD scouted prospects hits, the return is probably similar. So trading Sanchez 2 years too soon netted basically nothing but losing out production on one of the better catchers in the game, and he still is.
A lot of TBDs trades thus far needs to be looked at in the lens that they need to cut guys to get to $500, a rule many people hated without understanding, or they hated because of “bundling”, the least American and moral thing that can be done. I’m sure they chose which players they could get value from to get salary off their ledger and landed on Sanchez because they also acquired Carson Kelly for free and have James McCann. Personally, I think both are probably a decent downgrade from Sanchez, so I assume they might be in the market for a catcher if they can get one. I do also really like Carson Kelly, but just not banking on him to be very good, and Sanchez has been elite when healthy at his position for a few years now, albeit he may have peaked.
The prospects are good. Clark gets the best or second best catcher in baseball for under 10% of his budget. I can’t say I dislike it for him. He regrets this trade only if one of the prospect turns into a superstar and Sanchez sucks, which seems under 50% of both those things happening.
Good trade for…. BOTH teams.
BAILEY’s THOUGHTS
I’m going to give the win to Jobu here simply for being willing to deal prospects that we’ve all heard of for proven MLB talent. Gary Sanchez is a very good catcher and Alex Wood is a fine wildcard. Wood’s an injury-riddled season removed from being an 800 point pitcher and was a 900 point pitcher the year prior. This is a good risk. If he’s hurt again, you cut him pre-2021 and move on.
It’s possible this deal looks crappy eventually because Sanchez’s defense sucks so bad that he’s 1B or UT only while one or both of these prospects are awesome and cheap, but that’s down the road. Go get you some points now and put up a fight.
For TBD, this is just your standard Yearly Powerhouse budget move. I look forward to them trading one of Shane Baz or Carter Kieboom in June for a couple of high priced studs.
