Dynasty Grinders Deep Dive Minor League Draft / Waiver Wire Pickups

Amazon.com: 2016 Bowman International Ink #II-FT Fernando Tatis Jr. White Sox MLB Baseball Card NM-MT: Collectibles & Fine Art

 

 

I thought I would do a deep dive into Dynasty Grinders Minor League Draft for our new friends that have joined the league this year. The minor league draft can be a crap shoot, especially the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds. I’m not a big fan in obtaining later round picks in the draft. Usually they are just thrown ins to make the trade look better, you will see with the deep dive. 

 

The main reason TBD and HLR can acquire players like Glasnow and Castillo is because they are professional prospectors. I do think Glasnow and Castillo trades were a little lite going the other way considering the ages and salaries of both player.  I will guarantee you that TBD and HLR will restock quickly but it will get harder if everyone Grinds as hard as they do. The league will be going to 40 prospects this year, that’s 640 prospects. In 2023 the league will reach 50 prospects, that’s 800 players, that’s a lot of prospects and probably a lot of streaming of prospects.  

 

I used the Senior Squids Prospect Spreadsheet as my reference, the spreadsheet probably not as good as Hustle Media but you try to learn from the best, right? Dynasty Grinders has been around since 2016. The first year we drafted ten prospects each, good information can be gleaned  from the draft but not in the later rounds because we were  only drafting 160 players. I concentrated 2017 and 2018 drafts where the draft pooled increased 240 and 320 players respectively.  

 

A couple items: MLB/DM (DM = difference makers, Tatis types) category are drafted players that have made their MLB debut, don’t be fool with the category, just because the player fulfilled their dream making the majors doesn’t mean that are valuable fantasy assets. Can you say Daniel Gosset? 

 

Finally, the prospect ranking 1-10, 11-50, 51-100, 101-200,  200 and up.  I also went to the Dynasty Grinders Fantrax pages and to see who was picked up  off the waiver wire during the last four years. For the new owners this is where you need to grind and fine that hidden jewel and as you will see there were some crazy good players that were never drafted and plucked off the waiver wire.  

 

2016 Draft

Busts: 

1-7  Lewis Brinson, didn’t he just get traded for the 10th time last week? 

1-11 AJ Reed

2-6  Jose De Leon, yea I traded for him. 

 

Bam: 

1-1 Yoan Moncada 

1-4 Tyler Glasnow

1-13 Blake Snell

 

Wow, I drafted him that late, okay then. 

5.3 Jack Flaherty 

8.1 Matt Chapman

9.5 Walker Buehler, now this is a crazy one, he was drafted in 2016 and dropped and redrafted in the second round in 2017. Great grinding by TBD. 

12.3 Sandy Alcantra, yea I traded for him and  traded him away too. Yea another stupid trade. 

Wow Waiver Wire Pickups

Hunter Dozier, Royals, he was picked up and dropped a few times, including me. 

Juan Soto, Nationals, nice job Long Ball

Max Muncy Dodgers, first Dusty and he dropped him and of course HLR picked him up. HLR is huge Dodger fan. If you don’t know the fantasy owners favorite teams your missing out. I’m a sucker for the Mariners and I will pay a high price for JRod. 

Cristian Pache, Braves, another Longball pickup

Mitch Keller, Pirates, another TBD pickup

 

2017 Draft

Busts: 

Honestly the whole 1st rounds sucked!

1-1 Kevin Maitan, yea #1 player, I believe we was the best player on the board before the draft but I think he got his money and got fat and lazy. Most prospect web sites don’t have him ranked anymore. Hey, Boobs you have a 1st overall pick on your team. 

1-3 Cory Ray

1-4 Blake Rutherford

1-5 Mickey Moniak

1-6 Delvin Perez

1-7 Jason Groom

I could go on……. 

Bam: 

2-4 Walker Buehler, nice pick up TBD

2-11 Luis Castillo

3-6 Fernando Tatis,  HLR unfortunately traded him for a bag of balls. 

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then. 

4-1 Jesus Luzardo

5-16 Dinelson Lamet, HLR, yep the last player taken and yea he traded him too. 

Wow Waiver Wire Pickups

Shane Bieber, Indians, yep you read that right, the best pitcher in the league was never drafted. What does that tell the new owners? You need to grind. 

Ronald Acuna, Braves, 8.86 ppg.  Long Ball  hits the jackpot again, Acuna and Soto are the corner stone of his team. 

 

MLB/DM 1-10 11-50 51-100 101-200 200 and Up
2017 1 Round 10/0 0 0 0 0 6
2 Round 7/2 1 1 1 0 6
3 Round 9/1 1 1 0 0 5
4 Round 8/1 0 0 0 0 7
5 Round 6 0 0 0 0 10

 

  • Difference Makers: Buehler, Castillo, Luzardo and Tatis. 

 

2018 Draft

It’s probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows  but…….

Busts: 

1-7 Brendan McKay, Rays, shoulder surgery in Aug 2020, drafting pitching is always risky. 

1-8 Kyle Wright, Braves, yep that was me, 

1-11 Alex Faedo Tigers, another pitcher with arm issues too

Bam: 

1.1 Luis Robert, White Sox, Roberts made it to the  show pretty quick

2.9 Wander Franco, 1# prospect in the league, however he biceps and shoulder issues, at least he’s not a pitcher. 

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.

5-2 Vidal Brujan, Rays, Top 50 prospect

5-10 Sean Murphy, A’s, made it to the show and is a top ten catcher, I believe catchers are the hardest position to fill because they usually can’t hit. 

3-13 Will Smith, another productive catcher and he might be the best catcher in 2021

Waiver Wire Pickups

Bobby Dalbac impressive first year with 7.11 PPG, dropped by Longball, TBD picked him up and traded him to Organized Chaos.  

Gavin Lux top 50 prospect who made his debut in 2020

Cavin Biggo with a 6.24 PPG  and of course I had him on my team at one time. 

Spencer Howard, Top 50 prospect, yep I finally got a good waiver pick up. 

 

MLB/DM 1-10 11-50 51-100 101-200 200 and Up
2018 1 Round 7/1 1 1 1 2 4
2 Round 5 1 2 8
3 Round 7/1 1 1 7
4 Round 3 2 1 1 9
5 Round 4 1 11

 Difference Makers: Luis Robert and Will Smith

 

2019 Draft

Again probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows. 

Busts: 

1-2 Jonathen India, Reds, is TBD actually human? India’s stock has fell since being drafted as he”s dropped out of the many of the  top 200 prospects list but it is TBD and India is still young. 

1-11 Victor Victor Mesa, Marlins,  Mesa is out on most experts top 300 prospects list 

Bam: 

3-3 Noelvi Marte,  Mariners  Top 25 prospect but it’s still early

Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.

5-10 Dylan Carlson Cardinals, nice pick up by the Beach Bums, top ten prospect, however struggle in the short MLB season. 

Waiver Wire Pickups

Mitch Garver, Twins, but is he for real? A 29 year old catcher with 7.2 PPG in 2019 but Ryan Jeffers might have taken his place as the starting catcher?  

Gio Urshela , Yankees, picked up by Ferns than dropped and picked by TBD and traded to Marshall Plan. Urshela scored 6 PPG in 2020. 

I didn’t find any other good pick ups except a bunch of relief pitchers claims by HLR, in 2019 HLR had 542 waiver claims which I think is a Dynasty Grinders record.  

 

Observations 

Prospects are the key to success in any dynasty league and especially in Dynasty Grinders. If you don’t grind prospects don’t expect to win a championships anytime soon.  Prospects and the waiver wire is where you need to grind. 

First round picks are huge, especially the top 5 or 6 picks. In our league 80% of the first round picks make the major leagues, second rounders 60% and third rounders 40%. I’m not fan of obtaining 4th and 5th rounders in trades, they are like candy corn and are only good for about five minutes. As you can see only a hand full of 4th and 5th rounders hit. You would be better off grinding the waiver wire.  

Remember when you obtain a first rounder from one of the top teams it’s really an early 2nd rounder and how many 2nd rounders hit, maybe 60%. There has been some good second rounders that hit like Buehler and Castillo who were just traded.  

Drafting pitchers is always a risk for two reasons, injuries and will the pitcher become a bullpen arm. Additionally drafting high school / international players are also a risk because of their age and their development (Maitan). HLR has been very successful in that department, I’m wondering if he would be willing to share his secret sauce, probably not.   

The waiver wire is where you can make up some ground but it takes a lot of grinding. Long Ball is the king by picking up Acuna and Soto.  HLR is the king of roster claims with a record of 542 claims in 2019, however make sure you watch your FAAB budget. Additionally,  watch the prospect experts in the league, sometimes they drop prospects they don’t have room for but you might. 

Finally, there is plenty of free prospects web sites to visit. A few sites have a pay wall but worth the $5 a month price.  If any of you like podcasts there are plenty out there that are both informational and entertaining.

Trade: Suplex City I TBD

Rays' Glasnow starting Game 5 vs. Yankees on short rest | theScore.com

TBD gets:

Tyler Glasnow $7

Suplex City gets:

Brennan Davis
Ethan Small
Luis Matos
J Stiever
2021 pick 15 , 2nd rounder in 2022 and 1st rounder
in 2023

TBD can’t find a name, but he can find an ace. In the history of Dynasty Grinders he has successfully traded prospects for Jacob Degrom, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, I’m sure there are more. Lets go down memory lane one more time

July 2019

TBD acquires Verlander($50) midseason to strengthen his team for the playoff run. Gives up prospects Nick Solak, Dustin May, Jordyn Adams, Jordan Groshans, 2020 1st round pick

May 2017

TBD acquires Noah Synergaard ($82) for Yoan Moncada($1), Michael Kopech, Cal Quantrill, 2 2018 1st round picks

Good on Suplex City for letting it be known that he was ready to move on from Glasnow. Its an easy thing to do and It only helps to get multiple offers. If only Luke Weaver hit the trade block, i would have backed up the truck :). He did get quite the bounty here, I just worry it may be more quantity than quality. Brennan Davis and Ethan Small i guess are the top pieces and both have yet to play above A ball. Brennan Davis is highly rated on a few lists. Luis Matos looks like he could be a high ceiling guy, he was mainly in the Domincan Summer league as a 17 year old in 2019. Jonathan Stiever rated Whitesox 6th best prospect is mlb ready. So there could be some good quality here, its just years away and the risk is high with each piece. Not my ideal return for a $7 potential ace.

Glasnow is not Verlander or even Syndergaard in my mind. But opinions may vary, he just doesn’t have a track record of consistency. While some might not like the Rays way of dealing with pitchers in our format I think its a positive. If they cap you at 5 or 6 innings you lessen the chance of that solid outing turning mediocre after a tired pitcher gives up a HR in the 7th or 8th.

Congrats to TBD on getting a cheap quality SP. He has a way of keeping his emotions in check and parting with prospects that others may have a tendency to fall in love with and overrate. There is an argument to be made for quantity over quality. Prospects have a way of surprising you so getting a handful of high ceiling youngsters isn’t a bad strategy, But generally when looking back on these trades the guy getting the proven star player isn’t too disappointed, unless you realize that Noah Syndergaard had TJ surgery shortly after being acquired by TBD in 2017. Us TBD competitors would hate to see something like that occur again.

Trade: Pine Mountain Podstars I Suplex City

 

Suplex City

gets Lewis Brinson $5

Pine Mountain Podstars

gets Delvin Perez (prospect–kind of)

Well why waste time on this dumpster fire trade you ask? We are here to grind, and this is a grinders trade.  And who doesn’t like a trip down memory lane. Buckle up!

2016  May

TBD sends Lewis Brinson. Amir Garrett, $7 Kyle Gibson and 2nd round pick to Haddy for Jacob Degrom, Steven Wright and a 4th round pick

Sorry Haddy! That stings!

2018 February

TBD acquired JD Martinez (who was a top 5 hitter) and 55 dollars for Lewis Brinson, Austin Hays, Adrain Morejon…..and thank goodness Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff saved the trade from disaster.

Just another cautionary tale . Know what your doing when acquiring prospects, as the odds are good that the shine wears off and your left with little.

Who knew there was somone out there who believed in Delvin Perez still? His 20 year old batting line in A ball was .269/.329/.325 and he had a BB/K rate of 27/117 in 458 AB. Not very good, but substanially better than his previous two years. But I’m sure he has some relatives holding out hope, just didn’t know we had one join our group recently.

Who knew there was anyone out there who believed in Lewis Brinson? All of us veterans of dynasty grinders……that’s who! Insert a solo of Ferns singing ….”I loved her first”.

Lewis Brinson is a dynasty grinder legend and lesson all wrapped into one. He was a heralded prospect that was a key piece in the above  blockbusters  He tore up AAA ball at age of 23 to a .331/.400/.561 line. He’s 26 now, coming off a .226/.268/.368 line. But he was a 5 tool prospect, and always will be. 


2020
Back to reality. Of the two players I guess I prefer Lewis Brinson as he actually is in the league and Delvin Perez while 6 years younger just isn’t good at all. That being said I think I throw Lewis Brinson back into the auction and keep my $5. Maybe spend my last dollar on him at auction if I hear a report that he is in great shape and just got some contacts in spring training to correct a vision problem that was undetected. 

Trade: Dozier Huge Boobs | TBD

MLB: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. wins AL Player of the Week

 

 

Dozier Huge Boobs Trades:
Lourdes Gurriel, Jr.

TBD Trades:
Matthew Liberatore
Francisco Alvarez
Carter Kieboom

It takes someone either very arrogant or very stupid to evaluate other peoples’ moves and designate a winner and a loser. Lucky for you, dear reader, I am both. Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. is interesting, in that he’s approaching what is considered in sports writing circles to be the prime of his career (he’ll be 27 on Opening Day 2021), and put up roughly his best performances in every slash line (his slugging in 2019 was .007 better, so call it a push). Oh, and did I mention he is still only $1? This is the kind of guy that you wouldn’t really think to trade away … but there are some warts. Gurriel had his hard hit percentage actually FALL by more than 10 percent in Fangraph’s metric, lining up more with his 2018 outcome (281/309/446). So how did he break through? BABIP, baby. He had a BABIP of an unreal .351. Yet in Statcast terms, his hard hit rate went UP, and his barrels continue to trend upwards. In all, I want to be a skeptic, but I think he’s the kind of guy you should keep, unless you get a haul. The Huge Boobs get Liberated with Matthew Liberatore (#52 in MLB Top 100), a large guy with a super projectable curveball that I have stanned since he was drafted in 2018. He does walk a few too many (3.56 BB/9 in A ball in 2019), but the stuff should play. And in the NL Central with a salary of $0? That should be a big boost if he meets his upside. Francisco Alvarez (#58 in MLB Top 100) is not someone I knew much about, admittedly (I’m catching up, okay!?) but he played well at 17 in professional baseball and hit at a sturdy clip. Catchers always seem to get their bat skills late, but Alvarez aced the first test. We will see how 2021 goes. Oy vey, but talk about failing the first test, Carter Kieboom is 0-for-one and a half now? Looking at his 2020, it’s a massive yikes. In 67 hitting events, he had zero barrels. ZERO. Here are some other zero barrelers for your enjoyment: Isaac Paredes, Tony Wolters, and Nick Madrigal. His 85.1 exit velocity also tied him with Shogo Akiyama and Danny Jansen. So yeah, it was bad. BUT! He walked 14 percent of the time, he had a 76 percent contact rate, and has a track record of on-base skills. If he was a throw-in, it’s a solid lottery ticket, if it’s a legitimate piece, that’s a problem. I think this trade is closer than it may seem when you’re looking at the names, only because Kieboom has soured to an unbelievable extent, and two Top 60 prospects, while nice, are far away. I get the return for Dozier, but TBD gets a nice piece and only loses $1 to do it. That’s not bad.

  • Kyle HTCP

 

Trade: Hustle | Suplex City

Luis Castillo throws seven scoreless innings, holds Phillies to four hits in 4-0 win

 

Hustle Loyalty and Respect trades away

  • Joey Bart – $0 cc
  • Francisco Morales– $0 cc
  • Heliot Ramos – $0 cc
  • Mitch Keller – $0 cc

 

Suplex City trades away

  • Luis Castillo – $15

 

Keeping up with the Jones? It’s a good trade for both teams, a rebuilding team and a team favorite to win it all in 2021. They both went out trying to improve their teams, and they did. 

 

In the short 2020 season Luis Castillo averaged 36.3 FP/G in 12 starts. He’s the 14th best pitcher in the league and in 2019 he averaged 34.7 FP/G.  The best part in the trade is Castillo is entering his prime at age 27 and has a salary of only $15.  Hustle watched TBD acquire some valuable pieces since trading began. Hustle countered by picking up Castillo, a top 10 pitcher in our league and the MLB. Did Hustle over pay? Or is this the going price for cream-of-the-crop pitching, only time will tell.  

 

Suplex City got four quality prospects and hopefully Joey Bart has found a home. In less than 30 hours Bart was traded three times. If my math is correct, in two days Suplex has added 13 minor league prospects. When he took over the team he only had one top 100 prospect and now according to the Senior Squids prospect spreadsheet they now have six top 100 prospects, good for them.  

 

  • Joey Bart is Buster Posey’s replacement and should not have a problem finding playing time with a 50 hit tool and a 60 power tool. 
  • Francisco Morales is still very young but with a 6’4″ frame who can hit 97 mph with the fastball and 70-grade slider, he’s going to be good. 
  • Heliot Ramos, a 21 year old, has already made it to Double AA and is on the fast track to the majors, especially since the Giants are on a rebuild. In the Cal League in 2019 he had the 3rd best (143 wRC+). He’s a big guy with power and is very athletic. 
  • Mitch Keller is slated to be the Pirates #2 pitcher and had a tough MLB debut with 7.13 ERA in 11 starts. However, in 2019 he posted 3.56 ERA at AAA. Keller is still only 24 and was a top 100 prospect coming out of Cedar Rapids IA. He will definitely have his opportunity with the always the rebuilding Pirates. 

 

 

For the new owners, these draft reviews mean nothing or absolutely zilch and are just for fun. I used to take these reviews seriously, “crap, did I just screw up” DON”T worry about it. If you want a player go for it and hope for the best. Everyone values players differently like chocolate and vanilla ice cream or whatever flavor you like.   

 

Finally, if you don’t value prospects you need to start yesterday, this is a dynasty league. The reason TBD and Hustle are always at the top of the standings is because they are great at prospecting and use their assets to make trades like this one. My advice is to start a prospect spreadsheet, the internet has plenty of free resources. Good trade by both teams.  

 

Trade: TBD | Suplex City

He Won the World Series? Anthony Rendon Is Still Nonchalant - The New York  Times

Suplex City trades away

TBD trades away

  • Casey Mize – $0 cc
  • Shane Baz – prospect
  • Yuli Gurriel – $10

 

Suplex City, I was happy to hear your positive feedback from the Trea Turner trade review. Keep those happy feelings in mind while you read this one.

Trading an elite bat for pitching prospects is a bad idea. Lets fast forward three years. Anthony Rendon is a stud offensive performer who is especially valuable in Dynasty Grinders because he has an elite wOBA. Casey Mize is… recovering from shoulder surgery? In the bullpen because he lacks fastball command? During his few starts in Detroit, Mize showed two elite out pitches, and a fastball that couldn’t find the zone. Maybe he figures it out and lives up to his billing as the 1-1 in the MLB draft. I hope so, because that is the Casey Mize you paid for. I’d like this trade more if Mize was a buy low, but I think you paid full price. This trade would make more sense if it was Kieboom, Mize, Gurriel. Then at least you get a bat that has a higher floor and mitigate some of the pitcher risk. Pretty sure Josh and Joe do the deal with Kieboom instead of Baz. Side bar, in a vacuum, I do like Baz, just not in this deal.

TBD cements themselves as the top contender headed into the 2021 season. Rendon is the best piece they’ve added today and it didn’t even hurt them to acquire him. Oh, and they got a 5th rounder because Rendon wasn’t enough on his own to part with two risky prospects and a 36 year old 1B.

Trade: Suplex City | TBD

Shades of Junior? Kyle Lewis makes a leaping, grand-slam robbing catch in  Mariners' play of the year | SWX Right Now - Sports for Spokane, CdA,  Tri-Cities, WA

 

TBD trades away

  • Gavin Lux $0 cc
  • Kyle Lewis $0 cc
  • Orelvis Martinez

Suplex City trades away

 

I really don’t know what to think about Kyle Lewis. Is he the only Mariner that Squids doesn’t own, btw? I can’t decide if he is the always injured prospect who has tons or potential, or is he the guy that took the league by storm and is on his way to being a superstar? Either way, I like this gamble for Suplex City. If I had to guess, he’s probably one of those guys that is better in real life or in a roto league, like Mondesi or Tim Anderson. As great as his year was, it was only good for 5.8 points per game. Not spectacular. You’ll probably have to live with huge swings in production, but his defense is good enough and the team around him is bad enough that he’ll get a tooooooooooooooooonnnnnnn of leash from the organization if he struggles.

What an odd year for Gavin Lux. Everyone outside of the Dodgers believes he’s a future stud, but they treat him like he’s Chris Taylor 2.0. His numbers in the majors haven’t forced the issue, so that’s not great, but eventually they have to give him everyday playing time, right? In any event, this is a good buy low for Suplex. If Lux came up and started mashing, no way TBD moves him. The poor showing through 200PA took enough shine off him for someone to pry him away from TBD.

I’ve always been fond of Orelvis Martinez. The bat is exciting and I think the glove is good enough to stick at third. A couple years ago I heard someone comp him to Adrian Beltre, and that has stuck with me, true or not.

Now to the TBD portion. They get one of the best shortstops in baseball. Why they needed a fourth rounder to make this happen, I’ll never know, but upgrading SS from Jean Segura to Trea Turner seems like a good decision. I’d bet they wish that extra point per steal was approved during the recent rule voting. Not much else to say really. Turner is an absolute stud and TBD unloaded a lot of prospect capital to get him.

 

Trade: TBD | Dozier Huge Boobs

Jeff McNeil - Wikipedia

 

Dozier Huge Boobs trades away

  • Jeff McNeil $11

TBD trades away

  • Corbin Carroll
  • Daniel Espino
  • Bryson Stott

 

Despite the questionable decision making of an owner that would name his team Dozier Huge Boobs, his decision here is fine.

I don’t necessary love the fact that were gonna have a large percentage of rebuilders this year, but it’s not surprising given the number of new owners. I’m guessing we’re gonna have half the league rebuilding? Don’t know how that will play out in the big picture, but I completely understand “getting your guys”; and if Jeff McNeil isn’t one of your guys, this return is good enough.  Corbin Carroll has tons of upside. I wasn’t a huge fan of his because I didn’t think he’d tap into his power, but reports from the alternate site suggest he might get there. Daniel Espino has countless potential outcomes. Best case scenario might be avoiding TJ and being a mid rotation guy. Not many righty high schoolers that touch 100 end up being top of the rotation types. As for Bryson Stott, meh, bag of 5s probably. I don’t know that there is a carrying tool that makes him a difference maker in our format.

Jeff McNeil is a good get for TBD. As one of the six teams that are competing this year, they get better with this move. McNeil has tons of positional flexibility and with a couple injury prone players in their infield, he’ll play a pivotal role should they get hit with the injury bug. This trade is the first of many today where TBD parted with high end prospect talent to acquire guys who will score points this year. Bold strategy Cotton.

 

Trade: Long Ball to LF | Marshall Law

Marshall Law trades away
SP Dinelson Lamet ($5; cost controlled)
RF Misael Urbina (prospect)
1B Pavin Smith (prospect)

Long Ball to LF trades away
SP Aaron Nola ($38)

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

On the surface this trade looks lopsided. Aaron Nola is just 26-years-old, Steamer projects him as a top-15 overall pitcher in 2020, and he has consecutive 1,000+ point seasons on his resume. He checks every box as a top Dynasty Grinders asset (more on this in a moment). On the other side, there are two blah prospects and a spring training hype guy coming off Tommy John surgery who still carries a fair amount of reliever risk. This looks to be in favor of Marshall Law.

I do think it’s key to note the $33 savings here. This trade got Long Ball under $500 and that savings likely buys him at least another year of Kenta Maeda ($30), Michael Brantley ($29), or one of his higher priced pieces like Josh Donaldson ($77) or Zack Greinke ($67) that he’s been shopping. Those guys don’t show up in the Trade Accepted email, but they were no doubt a factor. My guess is, since Long Ball had listed all those guys on his trade block, there was zero interest across the board (because players that have salaries have cooties), so he ultimately sold whichever guy actually brought something back and that happened to be Nola. I’d argue the only “something” in this deal is Lamet, as the two prospects seem fairly disinteresting to me. Urbina is fine and has some long-term upside, Smith seems boring as a 1B-only with only 50 grade power. Whatever. It continuously blows my mind that upper tier players are traded in this league for churn-able prospects. Long Ball couldn’t get Vidal Brujan? Jazz Chisholm? As a rule of thumb, if a sub-$40 1,000 point player is traded, the prospects involved should really be guys Jordan has heard of before. Also, I probably would’ve rather just cut Maeda or Greinke or Brantley and kept Nola and missed out on Lamet. But the sum of Lamet plus whichever one of those guys would’ve been cut is probably close enough to Nola’s 2020 production to at least make the logical leap here.

I guess I’m mainly confused as to why a package headlined by Lamet and filled out by two prospects outside the top-250 was really the high offer.

Given Nola’s age, cost, and resume, he should’ve been coveted by literally every team, even the perpetual tankers. He was on the block publicly, so it’s not like his availability wasn’t known. I personally did not inquire on Nola, mainly because I’m sitting at $500 in keepers and The Bundle™ has ruined my mobility (weird how those rule changes that were met with such disgust ultimately did my team no favors), but I even sort of regret it now seeing this price. I could’ve probably afforded to punt a hitter to make room if push came to shove. If Long Ball waited until after auction, I would’ve probably thrown any prospects and picks he wanted at Nola and that terrifying $38 salary. Oh well.

How many other teams sat on the sidelines here? I guess people assumed the price would be too high and the mere thought of trading relevant prospects is unfathomable, but Urbina and Smith seem like fringe prospects at best right now. TBD and HLR will no doubt pick up far superior prospects for free throughout the season. Marshall will easily pick up better or comparable prospects to replace these guys himself. Even if Lamet meets his recent hype, Nola’s still likely to outscore him in 2020 and even teams like Senior Squids and We Talk Fantasy Sports and Who’s Your Haddy, who don’t intend to compete in the next half decade, should have been lining up here and could have probably beat this offer quite handily. You’re not getting a better asset than Nola at auction, so if that’s your game plan, good luck trying. If you were clinging to legitimate prospects out of fear of adding a whopping $38 in salary, well… whoops. And if you were out on Nola because you’re punting 2020, I guess I’m confused what the game plan is for 2021+ when you have no established good players in place when your prospects theoretically start getting promoted. The Bundle™ made Aaron Nola available for a low price and still no one with salary room took advantage? Hmm…

Overall, I like this deal for Marshall Law. If Lamet pans out, it probably buys Long Ball an extra player this year and next, maybe one more beyond that. For now I’ll gladly take the Nola side though.

Trade: Organized Chaos | Jobu Needs a Refill

Organized Chaos trades away
SS Carlos Correa ($103)
CF Cole Roederer (prospect)

Jobu Needs a Refill trades away
SS Royce Lewis (prospect)
3B Gio Urshela ($10)
CF Kyle Isbel

BAILEY’S THOUGHTS

This is a weird one.

I didn’t really understand the first Carlos Correa trade (for relatively cheap Freddie Freeman and cost controlled Dansby Swanson, where Correa also came with a sweet, sweet prospect) and I don’t get this one either. I’m mostly surprised there was a buyer for Correa. I like him, but he hasn’t topped 481 plate appearances since 2016. I think he’s an awesome player, but he’s just never been healthy enough to rely on and being 25-years-old is offset by costing $103 and being an easy greed target, so there’s seemingly no long-term value beyond 2020. If Jobu needs to re-sell him this season, he should have buyers (hand raised emoji here), but even then, is someone like Long Ball or TBD giving up a Royce Lewis caliber prospect plus other pieces to rent Correa for the rest of 2020? I doubt it.

I mean, the salary is fine if Correa’s a bonafied 600+ PA stud. But he’s not. Anthony Rizzo is being kept at $95 and that seems alright. I’m keeping Bryce Harper at $117 because, well, why throw him back to auction to maybe save $20 to redistribute to Michael Wacha? Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard are on the trade block and priced similarly, but they somehow feel more reliable and impactful to me than Correa. Ultimately I think it’s okay to just build your best team possible for $500 and more or less ignore the individual salaries, but that sort of assumes your high salary guys are dependable. Like, Rizzo has topped 600 PA in seven straight years. If he gets hurt, that’d suck, but betting on his durability is a fairly safe bet.

I’m not a big Gio Urshela believer, but simply due to attrition, it wouldn’t shock me if Urshela outscores Correa in 2020. Or at least performs comparably. He won’t if they play the same number of games. But if Correa misses 50+ again, it seems possible.

Anyway, I do like that Jobu is attempting to field the best team possible in 2020. Prospects like Royce Lewis are rarely made available. So even if I don’t love the trade, I think it’s smart of Jobu to go against the grain and be the owner willing to make these guys available. If you’re okay saying that your entire prospect lot is not off limits, you can gain access to tons of actual major league points-scorers. Royce Lewis is, what… a top 10-15 prospect by most lists? So if he’s available and every other team is refusing to even discuss players if they’re on a top 100 list at all, maybe even top 150-200, you can potentially find an edge for yourself.

I’m also not quite sure how much I like Lewis. He was absolutely abysmal last year. The tools and the scouting reports are there and the lists love him, but how often do truly elite prospects have years as terrible as he just did? Having said that, the prospect love in this league suggests to me you could’ve gotten a massive haul for Lewis as soon as auction ended.

I have no idea who wins this trade. Probably Chaos. Although maybe not, since I still feel like if he rolled back that first Correa trade his team would be in a far better spot today.

HUSTLE’S TOXIC $0.02

I think Correa is a great player, obviously has injury risk and is expensive, but if he helps you compete and you have the cash, he’s great to have.  My main issue with this trade for Jobu is he waited until Late January to put up an elite asset  on the trade block in hopes of getting win now pieces. Strategically the move to get Correa for a prospect seems fine, and it doesn’t hurt that Lewis’ stock took a hit this offseason.  That being said, I feel like the return for Lewis could have probably been better if he was shopped earlier and multiple teams were still holding on to good expensive players.

Urshella was also someone who took  2 2nd rounders and an OK prospect in  Alexander Vargas to acquire for JOBU.  So in order to get an over $100 dollar player it cost a super elite prospect and 2 2nd round picks (+Vargas).  That just hasn’t been the going rate for Correa in 5 years of this league, and i think I’m in a position to know having owned him for most of it.

That being said, JOBU clearly has set up his team to make a run for it this year and his team certainly got better with this deal.