So Shane Bieber had himself a 2020. 12 Starts with a .86 whip, 1.63 ERA and 122K’s in 77 IP. Sure he benefited a little from the schedule. Officially the 2nd most famous Bieber now. You can’t sell any higher, and for a rebuilding team might as well sell now as it only takes one ligament to tear for his value to drop down to nothing. I really like what Boobs did here, he took his time, let it be known that he was on the block and then he played at least 3 contending teams offers against each other and took the one he liked best. Long ball sent in offers, Hustle Loyalty did, and the winner TBD. Anybody else throw their hat into the ring? If you didn’t make an offer for the CY young pitcher your either rebuilding, too busy and important to check in regularly, or just not a true grinder.
At first glance I didn’t think much of the offer to be honest. I hadn’t been looking at the new prospect rankings, I thought of Riley Greene as a high ceiling young kid who is far away, Logan Gilbert i knew as a high pick and high ceiling guy who wasn’t talked about quite as highly as the Nate Pearson’s of the prospect world. Brandon Marsh was the most surprising to see near the top 50. I’m not a huge fan based on the fact he is a 23 yr old white outfielder. Is that a good reason? Anyways i have walked back from the ledge and realized this return is a lot more solid than my first thought. In my world I really want a young mlb piece back with some prospects. If I am trading Bieber i preferably want a young MLB proven piece and some high ceiling prospects. Keep your Brandon Marsh and give me a Trent Grisham or Lourdes Gurriel. Riley Greene is a little too risky for my taste as the prized acquisition, but the package as a whole isn’t bad and its nice to know it wasn’t the only offer out there.
Lets take a closer look at the 3 prospects. Brandon Marsh is near mlb ready and coming off a solid 2019 as a 21 year old in AA with a .300/.383/.428 and a 47BB/92K ratio. The prior year, in the California league as a 20 year old, he struggled a bit for the first time. I was surprised to see him ranked 53rd on MLB’s top 100. He seems like a big leaguer but in fantasy he isn’t super exciting to me. The other two prospects are ranked higher and bring more fantasy excitement in my mind. Riley Greene’s ranking came in at 21 which also took me by surprise slightly. 2019 saw him RAKING in the GCL, hold his own against an older NYPL and then look his age in the MWL with a .622 OPS over 96 AB’s. But 3 levels as an 18 year old shows you what the Tigers think of their young prospect. So the ranking is aggressive and the scouting reports are probably glowing the ceiling is high. With the lost development year its hard to predict the ETA of players like him, but I admit he may be closer than you would think. Logan Gilbert ranked in at 33 and has a high velocity fastball and high ceiling and is getting close to mlb ready. So the 21,33,53 prospects and a couple high picks. Not too shabby to re-stock the cupboards.
There was another package offered for Bieber that was shown to me from the Boob’s which I preferred and kind of had me wave the white flag and give up my pursuit as i did not want to give up more talent than was on the table. But the Boob’s preferred this one and to each his own.
Anyways congrats to Dozier’s for a well executed trade done with patience and fairness where multiple teams had opportunity to send in offers.
And Congrats to the TBD! Bieber and Degrom make quite the front of the rotation. This offseason TBD has successfully deployed his prospect capital to acquire Bieber, Glasnow. Trea Turner, Rendon, Lourdes Gurriel, Jeff Mcneil, and Max Kepler. Did I miss anyone. No use waiting 3 years to get value out of a prospect when they can turn your team around now. Sure takes the risk out of the asset.
I thought I would do a deep dive into Dynasty Grinders Minor League Draft for our new friends that have joined the league this year. The minor league draft can be a crap shoot, especially the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds. I’m not a big fan in obtaining later round picks in the draft. Usually they are just thrown ins to make the trade look better, you will see with the deep dive.
The main reason TBD and HLR can acquire players like Glasnow and Castillo is because they are professional prospectors. I do think Glasnow and Castillo trades were a little lite going the other way considering the ages and salaries of both player. I will guarantee you that TBD and HLR will restock quickly but it will get harder if everyone Grinds as hard as they do. The league will be going to 40 prospects this year, that’s 640 prospects. In 2023 the league will reach 50 prospects, that’s 800 players, that’s a lot of prospects and probably a lot of streaming of prospects.
I used the Senior Squids Prospect Spreadsheet as my reference, the spreadsheet probably not as good as Hustle Media but you try to learn from the best, right? Dynasty Grinders has been around since 2016. The first year we drafted ten prospects each, good information can be gleaned from the draft but not in the later rounds because we were only drafting 160 players. I concentrated 2017 and 2018 drafts where the draft pooled increased 240 and 320 players respectively.
A couple items: MLB/DM (DM = difference makers, Tatis types) category are drafted players that have made their MLB debut, don’t be fool with the category, just because the player fulfilled their dream making the majors doesn’t mean that are valuable fantasy assets. Can you say Daniel Gosset?
Finally, the prospect ranking 1-10, 11-50, 51-100, 101-200, 200 and up. I also went to the Dynasty Grinders Fantrax pages and to see who was picked up off the waiver wire during the last four years. For the new owners this is where you need to grind and fine that hidden jewel and as you will see there were some crazy good players that were never drafted and plucked off the waiver wire.
2016 Draft
Busts:
1-7 Lewis Brinson, didn’t he just get traded for the 10th time last week?
9.5 Walker Buehler, now this is a crazy one, he was drafted in 2016 and dropped and redrafted in the second round in 2017. Great grinding by TBD.
12.3 Sandy Alcantra, yea I traded for him and traded him away too. Yea another stupid trade.
Wow Waiver Wire Pickups
Hunter Dozier, Royals, he was picked up and dropped a few times, including me.
Juan Soto, Nationals, nice job Long Ball
Max Muncy Dodgers, first Dusty and he dropped him and of course HLR picked him up. HLR is huge Dodger fan. If you don’t know the fantasy owners favorite teams your missing out. I’m a sucker for the Mariners and I will pay a high price for JRod.
Cristian Pache, Braves, another Longball pickup
Mitch Keller, Pirates, another TBD pickup
2017 Draft
Busts:
Honestly the whole 1st rounds sucked!
1-1 Kevin Maitan, yea #1 player, I believe we was the best player on the board before the draft but I think he got his money and got fat and lazy. Most prospect web sites don’t have him ranked anymore. Hey, Boobs you have a 1st overall pick on your team.
3-6 Fernando Tatis, HLR unfortunately traded him for a bag of balls.
Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.
4-1 Jesus Luzardo
5-16 Dinelson Lamet, HLR, yep the last player taken and yea he traded him too.
Wow Waiver Wire Pickups
Shane Bieber, Indians, yep you read that right, the best pitcher in the league was never drafted. What does that tell the new owners? You need to grind.
Ronald Acuna, Braves, 8.86 ppg. Long Ball hits the jackpot again, Acuna and Soto are the corner stone of his team.
MLB/DM
1-10
11-50
51-100
101-200
200 and Up
2017
1 Round
10/0
0
0
0
0
6
2 Round
7/2
1
1
1
0
6
3 Round
9/1
1
1
0
0
5
4 Round
8/1
0
0
0
0
7
5 Round
6
0
0
0
0
10
Difference Makers: Buehler, Castillo, Luzardo and Tatis.
2018 Draft
It’s probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows but…….
Busts:
1-7 Brendan McKay, Rays, shoulder surgery in Aug 2020, drafting pitching is always risky.
1-8 Kyle Wright, Braves, yep that was me,
1-11 Alex Faedo Tigers, another pitcher with arm issues too
Bam:
1.1 Luis Robert, White Sox, Roberts made it to the show pretty quick
2.9 Wander Franco, 1# prospect in the league, however he biceps and shoulder issues, at least he’s not a pitcher.
Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.
5-2 Vidal Brujan, Rays, Top 50 prospect
5-10 Sean Murphy, A’s, made it to the show and is a top ten catcher, I believe catchers are the hardest position to fill because they usually can’t hit.
3-13 Will Smith, another productive catcher and he might be the best catcher in 2021
Waiver Wire Pickups
Bobby Dalbac impressive first year with 7.11 PPG, dropped by Longball, TBD picked him up and traded him to Organized Chaos.
Gavin Lux top 50 prospect who made his debut in 2020
Cavin Biggo with a 6.24 PPG and of course I had him on my team at one time.
Spencer Howard, Top 50 prospect, yep I finally got a good waiver pick up.
Again probably a little early to write about Bust, Bams and Wows.
Busts:
1-2 Jonathen India, Reds, is TBD actually human? India’s stock has fell since being drafted as he”s dropped out of the many of the top 200 prospects list but it is TBD and India is still young.
1-11 Victor Victor Mesa, Marlins, Mesa is out on most experts top 300 prospects list
Bam:
3-3 Noelvi Marte, Mariners Top 25 prospect but it’s still early
Wow I drafted him that late, okay then.
5-10 Dylan Carlson Cardinals, nice pick up by the Beach Bums, top ten prospect, however struggle in the short MLB season.
Waiver Wire Pickups
Mitch Garver, Twins, but is he for real? A 29 year old catcher with 7.2 PPG in 2019 but Ryan Jeffers might have taken his place as the starting catcher?
Gio Urshela , Yankees, picked up by Ferns than dropped and picked by TBD and traded to Marshall Plan. Urshela scored 6 PPG in 2020.
I didn’t find any other good pick ups except a bunch of relief pitchersclaims by HLR, in 2019 HLR had 542 waiver claims which I think is a Dynasty Grinders record.
Observations
Prospects are the key to success in any dynasty league and especially in Dynasty Grinders. If you don’t grind prospects don’t expect to win a championships anytime soon. Prospects and the waiver wire is where you need to grind.
First round picks are huge, especially the top 5 or 6 picks. In our league 80% of the first round picks make the major leagues, second rounders 60% and third rounders 40%. I’m not fan of obtaining 4th and 5th rounders in trades, they are like candy corn and are only good for about five minutes. As you can see only a hand full of 4th and 5th rounders hit. You would be better off grinding the waiver wire.
Remember when you obtain a first rounder from one of the top teams it’s really an early 2nd rounder and how many 2nd rounders hit, maybe 60%. There has been some good second rounders that hit like Buehler and Castillo who were just traded.
Drafting pitchers is always a risk for two reasons, injuries and will the pitcher become a bullpen arm. Additionally drafting high school / international players are also a risk because of their age and their development (Maitan). HLR has been very successful in that department, I’m wondering if he would be willing to share his secret sauce, probably not.
The waiver wire is where you can make up some ground but it takes a lot of grinding. Long Ball is the king by picking up Acuna and Soto. HLR is the king of roster claims with a record of 542 claims in 2019, however make sure you watch your FAAB budget. Additionally, watch the prospect experts in the league, sometimes they drop prospects they don’t have room for but you might.
Finally, there is plenty of free prospects web sites to visit. A few sites have a pay wall but worth the $5 a month price. If any of you like podcasts there are plenty out there that are both informational and entertaining.
Brennan Davis Ethan Small Luis Matos J Stiever 2021 pick 15 , 2nd rounder in 2022 and 1st rounder in 2023
TBD can’t find a name, but he can find an ace. In the history of Dynasty Grinders he has successfully traded prospects for Jacob Degrom, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, I’m sure there are more. Lets go down memory lane one more time
July 2019
TBD acquires Verlander($50) midseason to strengthen his team for the playoff run. Gives up prospects Nick Solak, Dustin May, Jordyn Adams, Jordan Groshans, 2020 1st round pick
May 2017
TBD acquires Noah Synergaard ($82) for Yoan Moncada($1), Michael Kopech, Cal Quantrill, 2 2018 1st round picks
Good on Suplex City for letting it be known that he was ready to move on from Glasnow. Its an easy thing to do and It only helps to get multiple offers. If only Luke Weaver hit the trade block, i would have backed up the truck :). He did get quite the bounty here, I just worry it may be more quantity than quality. Brennan Davis and Ethan Small i guess are the top pieces and both have yet to play above A ball. Brennan Davis is highly rated on a few lists. Luis Matos looks like he could be a high ceiling guy, he was mainly in the Domincan Summer league as a 17 year old in 2019. Jonathan Stiever rated Whitesox 6th best prospect is mlb ready. So there could be some good quality here, its just years away and the risk is high with each piece. Not my ideal return for a $7 potential ace.
Glasnow is not Verlander or even Syndergaard in my mind. But opinions may vary, he just doesn’t have a track record of consistency. While some might not like the Rays way of dealing with pitchers in our format I think its a positive. If they cap you at 5 or 6 innings you lessen the chance of that solid outing turning mediocre after a tired pitcher gives up a HR in the 7th or 8th.
Congrats to TBD on getting a cheap quality SP. He has a way of keeping his emotions in check and parting with prospects that others may have a tendency to fall in love with and overrate. There is an argument to be made for quantity over quality. Prospects have a way of surprising you so getting a handful of high ceiling youngsters isn’t a bad strategy, But generally when looking back on these trades the guy getting the proven star player isn’t too disappointed, unless you realize that Noah Syndergaard had TJ surgery shortly after being acquired by TBD in 2017. Us TBD competitors would hate to see something like that occur again.
Well why waste time on this dumpster fire trade you ask? We are here to grind, and this is a grinders trade. And who doesn’t like a trip down memory lane. Buckle up!
TBD acquired JD Martinez (who was a top 5 hitter) and 55 dollars for Lewis Brinson, Austin Hays, Adrain Morejon…..and thank goodness Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff saved the trade from disaster.
Just another cautionary tale . Know what your doing when acquiring prospects, as the odds are good that the shine wears off and your left with little.
Who knew there was somone out there who believed in Delvin Perez still? His 20 year old batting line in A ball was .269/.329/.325 and he had a BB/K rate of 27/117 in 458 AB. Not very good, but substanially better than his previous two years. But I’m sure he has some relatives holding out hope, just didn’t know we had one join our group recently.
Who knew there was anyone out there who believed in Lewis Brinson? All of us veterans of dynasty grinders……that’s who! Insert a solo of Ferns singing ….”I loved her first”.
Lewis Brinson is a dynasty grinder legend and lesson all wrapped into one. He was a heralded prospect that was a key piece in the above blockbusters He tore up AAA ball at age of 23 to a .331/.400/.561 line. He’s 26 now, coming off a .226/.268/.368 line. But he was a 5 tool prospect, and always will be.
2020 Back to reality. Of the two players I guess I prefer Lewis Brinson as he actually is in the league and Delvin Perez while 6 years younger just isn’t good at all. That being said I think I throw Lewis Brinson back into the auction and keep my $5. Maybe spend my last dollar on him at auction if I hear a report that he is in great shape and just got some contacts in spring training to correct a vision problem that was undetected.
TBD Trades:
Matthew Liberatore
Francisco Alvarez
Carter Kieboom
It takes someone either very arrogant or very stupid to evaluate other peoples’ moves and designate a winner and a loser. Lucky for you, dear reader, I am both. Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. is interesting, in that he’s approaching what is considered in sports writing circles to be the prime of his career (he’ll be 27 on Opening Day 2021), and put up roughly his best performances in every slash line (his slugging in 2019 was .007 better, so call it a push). Oh, and did I mention he is still only $1? This is the kind of guy that you wouldn’t really think to trade away … but there are some warts. Gurriel had his hard hit percentage actually FALL by more than 10 percent in Fangraph’s metric, lining up more with his 2018 outcome (281/309/446). So how did he break through? BABIP, baby. He had a BABIP of an unreal .351. Yet in Statcast terms, his hard hit rate went UP, and his barrels continue to trend upwards. In all, I want to be a skeptic, but I think he’s the kind of guy you should keep, unless you get a haul. The Huge Boobs get Liberated with Matthew Liberatore (#52 in MLB Top 100), a large guy with a super projectable curveball that I have stanned since he was drafted in 2018. He does walk a few too many (3.56 BB/9 in A ball in 2019), but the stuff should play. And in the NL Central with a salary of $0? That should be a big boost if he meets his upside. Francisco Alvarez (#58 in MLB Top 100) is not someone I knew much about, admittedly (I’m catching up, okay!?) but he played well at 17 in professional baseball and hit at a sturdy clip. Catchers always seem to get their bat skills late, but Alvarez aced the first test. We will see how 2021 goes. Oy vey, but talk about failing the first test, Carter Kieboom is 0-for-one and a half now? Looking at his 2020, it’s a massive yikes. In 67 hitting events, he had zero barrels. ZERO. Here are some other zero barrelers for your enjoyment: Isaac Paredes, Tony Wolters, and Nick Madrigal. His 85.1 exit velocity also tied him with Shogo Akiyama and Danny Jansen. So yeah, it was bad. BUT! He walked 14 percent of the time, he had a 76 percent contact rate, and has a track record of on-base skills. If he was a throw-in, it’s a solid lottery ticket, if it’s a legitimate piece, that’s a problem. I think this trade is closer than it may seem when you’re looking at the names, only because Kieboom has soured to an unbelievable extent, and two Top 60 prospects, while nice, are far away. I get the return for Dozier, but TBD gets a nice piece and only loses $1 to do it. That’s not bad.
Keeping up with the Jones? It’s a good trade for both teams, a rebuilding team and a team favorite to win it all in 2021. They both went out trying to improve their teams, and they did.
In the short 2020 season Luis Castillo averaged 36.3 FP/G in 12 starts. He’s the 14th best pitcher in the league and in 2019 he averaged 34.7 FP/G. The best part in the trade is Castillo is entering his prime at age 27 and has a salary of only $15. Hustle watched TBD acquire some valuable pieces since trading began. Hustle countered by picking up Castillo, a top 10 pitcher in our league and the MLB. Did Hustle over pay? Or is this the going price for cream-of-the-crop pitching, only time will tell.
Suplex City got four quality prospects and hopefully Joey Bart has found a home. In less than 30 hours Bart was traded three times. If my math is correct, in two days Suplex has added 13 minor league prospects. When he took over the team he only had one top 100 prospect and now according to the Senior Squids prospect spreadsheet they now have six top 100 prospects, good for them.
Joey Bart is Buster Posey’s replacement and should not have a problem finding playing time with a 50 hit tool and a 60 power tool.
Francisco Morales is still very young but with a 6’4″ frame who can hit 97 mph with the fastball and 70-grade slider, he’s going to be good.
Heliot Ramos, a 21 year old, has already made it to Double AA and is on the fast track to the majors, especially since the Giants are on a rebuild. In the Cal League in 2019 he had the 3rd best (143 wRC+). He’s a big guy with power and is very athletic.
Mitch Keller is slated to be the Pirates #2 pitcher and had a tough MLB debut with 7.13 ERA in 11 starts. However, in 2019 he posted 3.56 ERA at AAA. Keller is still only 24 and was a top 100 prospect coming out of Cedar Rapids IA. He will definitely have his opportunity with the always the rebuilding Pirates.
For the new owners, these draft reviews mean nothing orabsolutely zilch and are just for fun. I used to take these reviews seriously, “crap, did I just screw up” DON”T worry about it. If you want a player go for it and hope for the best. Everyone values players differently like chocolate and vanilla ice cream or whatever flavor you like.
Finally, if you don’t value prospects you need to start yesterday, this is a dynasty league. The reason TBD and Hustle are always at the top of the standings is because they are great at prospecting and use their assets to make trades like this one. My advice is to start a prospect spreadsheet, the internet has plenty of free resources. Good trade by both teams.
Suplex City, I was happy to hear your positive feedback from the Trea Turner trade review. Keep those happy feelings in mind while you read this one.
Trading an elite bat for pitching prospects is a bad idea. Lets fast forward three years. Anthony Rendon is a stud offensive performer who is especially valuable in Dynasty Grinders because he has an elite wOBA. Casey Mize is… recovering from shoulder surgery? In the bullpen because he lacks fastball command? During his few starts in Detroit, Mize showed two elite out pitches, and a fastball that couldn’t find the zone. Maybe he figures it out and lives up to his billing as the 1-1 in the MLB draft. I hope so, because that is the Casey Mize you paid for. I’d like this trade more if Mize was a buy low, but I think you paid full price. This trade would make more sense if it was Kieboom, Mize, Gurriel. Then at least you get a bat that has a higher floor and mitigate some of the pitcher risk. Pretty sure Josh and Joe do the deal with Kieboom instead of Baz. Side bar, in a vacuum, I do like Baz, just not in this deal.
TBD cements themselves as the top contender headed into the 2021 season. Rendon is the best piece they’ve added today and it didn’t even hurt them to acquire him. Oh, and they got a 5th rounder because Rendon wasn’t enough on his own to part with two risky prospects and a 36 year old 1B.
I really don’t know what to think about Kyle Lewis. Is he the only Mariner that Squids doesn’t own, btw? I can’t decide if he is the always injured prospect who has tons or potential, or is he the guy that took the league by storm and is on his way to being a superstar? Either way, I like this gamble for Suplex City. If I had to guess, he’s probably one of those guys that is better in real life or in a roto league, like Mondesi or Tim Anderson. As great as his year was, it was only good for 5.8 points per game. Not spectacular. You’ll probably have to live with huge swings in production, but his defense is good enough and the team around him is bad enough that he’ll get a tooooooooooooooooonnnnnnn of leash from the organization if he struggles.
What an odd year for Gavin Lux. Everyone outside of the Dodgers believes he’s a future stud, but they treat him like he’s Chris Taylor 2.0. His numbers in the majors haven’t forced the issue, so that’s not great, but eventually they have to give him everyday playing time, right? In any event, this is a good buy low for Suplex. If Lux came up and started mashing, no way TBD moves him. The poor showing through 200PA took enough shine off him for someone to pry him away from TBD.
I’ve always been fond of Orelvis Martinez. The bat is exciting and I think the glove is good enough to stick at third. A couple years ago I heard someone comp him to Adrian Beltre, and that has stuck with me, true or not.
Now to the TBD portion. They get one of the best shortstops in baseball. Why they needed a fourth rounder to make this happen, I’ll never know, but upgrading SS from Jean Segura to Trea Turner seems like a good decision. I’d bet they wish that extra point per steal was approved during the recent rule voting. Not much else to say really. Turner is an absolute stud and TBD unloaded a lot of prospect capital to get him.
Despite the questionable decision making of an owner that would name his team Dozier Huge Boobs, his decision here is fine.
I don’t necessary love the fact that were gonna have a large percentage of rebuilders this year, but it’s not surprising given the number of new owners. I’m guessing we’re gonna have half the league rebuilding? Don’t know how that will play out in the big picture, but I completely understand “getting your guys”; and if Jeff McNeil isn’t one of your guys, this return is good enough. Corbin Carroll has tons of upside. I wasn’t a huge fan of his because I didn’t think he’d tap into his power, but reports from the alternate site suggest he might get there. Daniel Espino has countless potential outcomes. Best case scenario might be avoiding TJ and being a mid rotation guy. Not many righty high schoolers that touch 100 end up being top of the rotation types. As for Bryson Stott, meh, bag of 5s probably. I don’t know that there is a carrying tool that makes him a difference maker in our format.
Jeff McNeil is a good get for TBD. As one of the six teams that are competing this year, they get better with this move. McNeil has tons of positional flexibility and with a couple injury prone players in their infield, he’ll play a pivotal role should they get hit with the injury bug. This trade is the first of many today where TBD parted with high end prospect talent to acquire guys who will score points this year. Bold strategy Cotton.
On the surface this trade looks lopsided. Aaron Nola is just 26-years-old, Steamer projects him as a top-15 overall pitcher in 2020, and he has consecutive 1,000+ point seasons on his resume. He checks every box as a top Dynasty Grinders asset (more on this in a moment). On the other side, there are two blah prospects and a spring training hype guy coming off Tommy John surgery who still carries a fair amount of reliever risk. This looks to be in favor of Marshall Law.
I do think it’s key to note the $33 savings here. This trade got Long Ball under $500 and that savings likely buys him at least another year of Kenta Maeda ($30), Michael Brantley ($29), or one of his higher priced pieces like Josh Donaldson ($77) or Zack Greinke ($67) that he’s been shopping. Those guys don’t show up in the Trade Accepted email, but they were no doubt a factor. My guess is, since Long Ball had listed all those guys on his trade block, there was zero interest across the board (because players that have salaries have cooties), so he ultimately sold whichever guy actually brought something back and that happened to be Nola. I’d argue the only “something” in this deal is Lamet, as the two prospects seem fairly disinteresting to me. Urbina is fine and has some long-term upside, Smith seems boring as a 1B-only with only 50 grade power. Whatever. It continuously blows my mind that upper tier players are traded in this league for churn-able prospects. Long Ball couldn’t get Vidal Brujan? Jazz Chisholm? As a rule of thumb, if a sub-$40 1,000 point player is traded, the prospects involved should really be guys Jordan has heard of before. Also, I probably would’ve rather just cut Maeda or Greinke or Brantley and kept Nola and missed out on Lamet. But the sum of Lamet plus whichever one of those guys would’ve been cut is probably close enough to Nola’s 2020 production to at least make the logical leap here.
I guess I’m mainly confused as to why a package headlined by Lamet and filled out by two prospects outside the top-250 was really the high offer.
Given Nola’s age, cost, and resume, he should’ve been coveted by literally every team, even the perpetual tankers. He was on the block publicly, so it’s not like his availability wasn’t known. I personally did not inquire on Nola, mainly because I’m sitting at $500 in keepers and The Bundle™ has ruined my mobility (weird how those rule changes that were met with such disgust ultimately did my team no favors), but I even sort of regret it now seeing this price. I could’ve probably afforded to punt a hitter to make room if push came to shove. If Long Ball waited until after auction, I would’ve probably thrown any prospects and picks he wanted at Nola and that terrifying $38 salary. Oh well.
How many other teams sat on the sidelines here? I guess people assumed the price would be too high and the mere thought of trading relevant prospects is unfathomable, but Urbina and Smith seem like fringe prospects at best right now. TBD and HLR will no doubt pick up far superior prospects for free throughout the season. Marshall will easily pick up better or comparable prospects to replace these guys himself. Even if Lamet meets his recent hype, Nola’s still likely to outscore him in 2020 and even teams like Senior Squids and We Talk Fantasy Sports and Who’s Your Haddy, who don’t intend to compete in the next half decade, should have been lining up here and could have probably beat this offer quite handily. You’re not getting a better asset than Nola at auction, so if that’s your game plan, good luck trying. If you were clinging to legitimate prospects out of fear of adding a whopping $38 in salary, well… whoops. And if you were out on Nola because you’re punting 2020, I guess I’m confused what the game plan is for 2021+ when you have no established good players in place when your prospects theoretically start getting promoted. The Bundle™ made Aaron Nola available for a low price and still no one with salary room took advantage? Hmm…
Overall, I like this deal for Marshall Law. If Lamet pans out, it probably buys Long Ball an extra player this year and next, maybe one more beyond that. For now I’ll gladly take the Nola side though.
