Team Canada trades away 1B/3B Kevin Cron ($5.50, sadly not cost controlled)
Andrew’s thoughts: As the league’s foremost authority on 1bman, I thought it appropriate that I review Ferns’ latest trade for one. As the kids would say, Ferns is thirsty for 1bman. 💯💦🍹
In the wise words of Jordan Gillis, this trade SEEMS FINE. It is a practically meaningless prospect pick for a trial run of the Diamondbacks starting pinch hitter who murdered minor league pitching. Maybe one day whoever the D’backs manager is lets Kevin Cron play with his friends regularly and he becomes an impact hitter at $7 to keep. Maybe not. But at the cost of a fifth round pick, there’s really no risk. That is the textbook definition of “seems fine.”
For Team Canada, this move frees up a roster spot to stream backup catchers on days where there are only four MLB games. That is truly exciting.
The only loser here is me for having reviewed this trade.
This trade is ok if your hoping for Pomeranz to regain his 30 PPG in seasons 2016/2017. Last year he started 26 games and averaged a measly 9 PPG. This year hasn’t been much better with only one good start and is averaging 18 ppg. With the Giants offence so poor and being in the National League the chances of him going deep in games is slim to none. As for the Otters, Nicky Lopez is a good major league ready player. He is batting .354 with a .426 OBP this year in Omaha and had a good season last year at AAA. Lopez also rank just outside to the Squids top 200 prospect list. The Otters also receiving a 3rd round draft pick is a bonus. The bigger question is, will Bailey have any 2020 draft picks left by the end of the season? Currently, he has four picks left, a 2nd (Jordan) 3rd (Team Canada) and two 5th rounders which aren’t worth much.
The winner to be determine, but pitching is hard to come by so maybe the 2018[and 2017] Points Champion knows more than me, which is probably the case.
First, this is my first and probably my last attempt at writing for Dynasty Grinders. Since I retired I’ve had more time on my hands and over the last month I’ve dived into each and every Grinders minor league systems. There were a few reasons for the deep dive in the minor league systems:
I wanted to learn more about the minor league systems
Prepare myself for the upcoming draft
Educate myself on the other team’s minor league rosters for possible trades
Finally, as I was going through each team, I’m convinced there are the “haves and the have-nots” and I want to even the playing field. I’m hoping those at the bottom will be motived to do better. I also realize that some owners have different ideas how to manage their teams and I understand that too. My life experience tells me “Knowledge is Power”. The ultimate goal is to make the Dynasty Grinder league better and more balanced.
I’m no minor league expert and I have used a few web sites to grade each minor league player that is on our rosters. Additionally, some teams have players on their roster that weren’t ranked because I couldn’t justify giving them a star. Remember they are minor league players and could be late bloomers. There is a high probability that I’m full of crap, which is probably the case. Column “2018 MLB Ready” below means players could be breaking into the MLB this year. The teams are ranked from the best to worst.
The Key
3 Stars = Elite MLB Player
2 Stars = Solid MLB Player
1 Star = Average MLB Player
#1 HLR
Loaded, more than loaded………………………. Lead by Vladimir Guerrero, if you’re looking to trade for prospects HLR is the place to go. Beware HLR is a hustler and values his prospects and in a few years his team is going to be killing it. Hustle is going to win many championships if you believe in building from the bottom up. The only downside is HLR only has one prospect who might make the majors this year, he’s a good one too, Willie Calhoun. Minor League score 50.
2018 MLB Ready
TEX OF Calhoun, Willie
3 Star Players
ALT SP Allard, Kolby
NYM UT Alonso, Peter
TOR 3B Guerrero Jr., Vladimir
LAD LF Heredia, Starling
MIN SS Javier, Wander
DET SP Manning, Matt
PHL RF Ortiz, Jhailyn
MIL LF Harrison, Monte
TB LF Sanchez, Jesus
HOU RF Tucker, Kyle
#2 TBD
Almost the top minor league team, it was very close that’s for sure since the Joey Wentz trade. TBD was going to drop Brian McCann anyway, good for TBD. The rich get richer in my opinion………………………. TBD’s minor league team is stacked with Eloy Jimenez, who is a year away, and Walker Buehler, who could be the NL Rookie of the Year in 2018. TBD probably has the best 2018 MLB ready players, led by Buehler and Lewis Brinson. TBD’s experience evaluating minor league talent is unquestionable. Minor league score 49.
2018 MLB Ready
BAL RF Hays, Austin
MIL CF Brinson, Lewis
HOU SP/RP Paulino, David
MIL SP Woodruff, Brandon
STL SP Helsley, Ryan
LAD SP Buehler, Walker
3 Star Players
CHC SP Albertos, Jose
MIL CF Brinson, Lewis
CHW LF Jimenez, Eloy
LAD SP May, Dustin
DET SP Perez, Franklin
LAD SP Buehler, Walker
BAL RF Hays, Austin
Alt SP Wentz, Joey
#3 IL4W
IL4W was only one three-star pitcher away from being the top minor league squad. IL4W team is led by strong pitching with Michael Kopech, Braxton Garrett and Cal Quantrill. IL4W has the best group of minor league pitching in the league. IL4W also has young Kevin Maitan who found a new home in Anaheim. IL4W has help on the way this year with Alex Verdugo and Victor Robles, who are projected to be fantasy stars. HLR, IL4W and TBD’s minor league systems are killing it and the rest of us wish we had ¼ of the 3-star prospects they have. I tip my hat to all three teams. Minor league score 47.
2018 MLB Ready
PHI UT Alfaro, Jorge
KC SP Skoglund, Eric
LAD CF Verdugo, Alex
WAS RF Robles, Victor
3 Star Players
OAK LF Armenteros, Lazaro
MIA SP Garrett, Braxton
CHW SP Kopech, Michael
OAK SP Luzardo, Jesus
ATL SS Maitan, Kevin
SD SP Quantrill, Cal
MIL RF Grisham, Trent
WAS RF Robles, Victor
LAD SP Sheffield, Jordan
#4 Long Ball
Long Ball =’s Ronald Acuna, the favorite to become 2018 NL Rookie of the Year. Acuna ripped through three levels of the minors and AFL, there’s no doubt Acuna is ready to be a MLB All Star. Sean Reid-Foley has a 97-mph fast ball with a competitive edge. Long Ball also has some nice power coming up with Bobby Dalbec and pure hitter Bo Bichette just a couple of years away. Minor league score 37.
2018 MLB Ready
MIL SP Ortiz, Luis
CHC C Caratini, Victor
STL OF O’Neill, Tyler
ATL OF Acuna, Ronald
3 Star Players
ALT CF Acuna, Ronald
WAS SS Kieboom, Carter
TOR SP Reid-Foley, Sean
WAS RF Soto, Juan
SD SS Ruiz, Esteury
#5 Night King’s Undead Army
The Night Kings have the best pitching prospect in the game, Alex Reyes, but coming off TJS surgery. They also have eight two-star prospects. MLB ready players include Hunter Dozier, who will probably start the season with the Royals but playing time will be a question. Kyle Zimmer also has a chance to break camp with the Royals. Why did The Foundation change their name? Just to confuse me?????? Minor league score 36
2018 MLB Ready
KC 2B Dozier, Hunter
STL SP Reyes, Alex
KC SP Zimmer, Kyle
CHW RP Fulmer, Carson
3 Star Players
ATL SP Anderson, Ian
BOS SP Groome, Jason
BAL 3B Reyes, Jomar
STL SP Reyes, Alex
#6 Senior Squids
Not an earth shattering minor league roster. After the 2016 season the Squids reconstructed the minor league roster and concentrated on pitching. Hoping the likes of Honeywell, Alcantara, Duplantier and Whitley will be the foundation of his team for years to come. News broke recently that Mariner prospect Eric Filia was suspended 50 games for a second positive drug test. Filia hit .326 at Modesto in 2017 and won the Arizona Fall League battle title with a .408 average. Hopefully he gets his drug addiction taken care, and get back on the field and bring a world championship to Seattle. It’s kind of weird evaluating my own team, feel free to throw me under the bus. Minor league score 35
2018 MLB Ready
CIN LF, Winker, Jesse
TB SP Honeywell, Brent
SD RF Renfroe, Hunter
MIA SP Alcantara, Sandy
TB SP De Leon, Jose
CHW RP Vieira, Thyago
3 Star Players
TB 3B Lowe, Josh
SEA RF Lewis, Kyle
MIA SP Alcantara, Sandy
ARI SP Duplantier, Jon
HOU SP Whitley, Forrest
#7 Beach Bum
The Beach Bums have a balanced minor league team with lots of up and coming MLB talent, led by Gleyber Torres. Torres is slated to bat ninth and play 2B for the Yankees, who have the best line up in the majors. The Beach Bums have quite a few minor players that will hit the majors this year, especially with Oakland A’s. I’m a big fan of A J Puk who has huge K upside. The Beach Bums also have Austin Meadows who is #17 on MLB’s prospects and could make the Pirates roster if Andrew McCutchen is traded (ed. note: he was!). Minor league score 33
2018 MLB Ready
OAK SP Puk, AJ
OAK SP Holmes, Grant
NYY SS Torres, Gleyber
PIT CF Meadows, Austin
MIN SP Gonsalves, Stephen
3 Star Players
PHI 2B Kingery, Scott
PIT CF Meadows, Austin
OAK SP Puk, AJ
PHI SP Sanchez, Sixto
NYY SS Torres, Gleyber
#8 Team Hydra
Hydra has a very strong group of 2-star minor leagues, which include Corey Ray if he can find his stroke after a sub par 2017 season. Hydra’s strength is his MLB ready prospects. Francisco Mejia and Jorge Mateo both will make strong pitches for regular playing time this year. Additionally, Daniel Volgelbach will be fighting to win the 1B job with the Mariners, who adds lots of pop if he can do it in the majors. Minor league score 29
2018 MLB Ready
SEA 1 Vogelbach, Dan
CLE C Mejia, Francisco
OAK OF Fowler, Dustin
OAK SS Mateo, Jorge
3 Star Players
LAD SP Alvarez, Yadier
OAK SP Kaprielian, James
PIT SP Keller, Mitch
TEX CF Taveras, Leody
#9 The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses
First, “The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses” has to be the strangest / craziest fantasy team name I’ve ever heard. What’s the story behind the name, WB? Does anyone know? WB has a strong core of three-star prospects that include Jack Flaherty, who could find himself in the Cardinals rotation and be a solid #3. Riley Pint is a complete pitcher with a plus fastball who is a top of the rotation pitcher. Fernando Tatis Jr is going to be an All-Star with an already loaded Padres prospect squad. The Padres are going to be a force to be reckoned with in a couple of years. Minor league score 26
2018 MLB Ready
COL 1B McMahon, Ryan
MIL SS Dubon, Mauricio
TEX 1B Guzman, Ronald
3 Star Players
SD SP Espinoza, Anderson
STL SP Flaherty, Jack
COL 1B McMahon, Ryan
COL SP Pint, Riley
SD SS Tatis Jr, Fernando
#10 Troompa Loompas
Jimmy Kimmel’s team has three high end prospects that includes Dylan Cease a power pitcher who’s a 97 MPH fastball, he’s the 58th ranked prospect on MLB.com. TL should have three players get some MLB playing time this year led by Franklin Barreto who is line drive hitter and could hit .280. My favorite player on his roster is Matt Thaiss who can hit HR’s and knows how to work the count. Minor league score 25
2018 MLB Ready
OAK SS Barreto, Franklin
ARI SP Banda, Anthony
NYY SP Adams, Chance
3 Star Players
CHW SP Cease, Dylan
NYM SS Gimenez, Andres
NYM SP Scapucki, Thomas
#11 Preseason Double-Stuffs
The Oreos have two of the best up and coming infield prospects in our league, Brendon Rogers and Nick Senzel. Late word out of Cincinnati is they want Senzel to learn how to play the OF, which should speed up his callup and he might make the Cincinnati team to start the season. Senzel is Cincinnati’s #1 prospect and 9th overall. Brendon Rogers is the 7th overall prospect and is a middle of the order player at Coors Field, the Oreos will be double stuffing their two prize prospects this year. They also have Luiz Gohara, who Atlanta got from my Mariners. Gohara has #2 stuff. On kind of a strange note, the Double Stuffs have two of the top catching prospects in the league, Chance Sisco and Carson Kelly. However, Kelly is stuck behind Yadier Molina and he’s not going anywhere. I really like the Double Stuffs minor league roster. Minor league score 23.1
2018 MLB Ready
CIN 3B Senzel, Nick
COL SS Rodgers, Brendan
STL C Kelly, Carson
ATL SP Gohara, Luiz
BAL C Sisco, Chance
3 Star Players
COL SS Rodgers, Brendan
CIN 3B Senzel, Nick
CIN UT Trammell, Taylor
ATL SP Gohara, Luiz
#12 Capital City Ironmen
The Capital City Ironmen have nine two-star major league prospects and no three-star prospects. That could be all fake news and CC could have 9 three-star prospects and championships the next five years. This could cause the Hustler to curl up in the fetal position in a bathroom at Dodger Stadium. His squad is led by JP Crawford who will finally get his chance with Phillies batting 7th. They also have Oscar De La Cruz who is on the fast track and will be a middle of the rotation pitcher with fantasy upside. I also like Yordan Alvarez who has 25 HR upside. Minor league score 23
2018 MLB Ready
PHI 3B Crawford, JP
CLE SP Bieber, Shane
LAA SP Barria, Jaime
TOR LF Gurriel, Lourdes
PIT SS Newman, Kevin
3 Star Players
N/A
#13 Who’s Your Haddy?
Who’s Your Haddy’s top two prospects are a few years away. Adonis Medina is slated as a #2 with lots of K upside in his future, but could end up in the bullpen. Their top prospect, Estevan Florial is capable of .300+ BA, 20+ HR, and 25+ SB. Major League ready David Dahl is on Haddy’s minor league roster and will be Colorado’s OF of the future. Amir Garrett is slated to start in the bullpen but has #3 starter stuff and will start on the major league roster in 2018. Minor league score 18.1
2018 MLB Ready
CIN SP Garrett, Amir
COL LF Dahl, David
3 Star Players
NYY CF Florial, Estevan
PHI RP Medina, Adonis
3 Star Players 2018 MLB Ready
NYY CF Florial, Estevan CIN SP Garrett, Amir
PHI RP Medina, Adonis COL LF Dahl, David
#14 Team Canada
Team Canada’s minor league has limited 3-star talent except for Isan Diaz who has huge power upside but is a few years away. However, they do have a few players that should make their MLB debut this year. Tyler Mahle has an excellent chance to become a solid fantasy contributor this year. Jordan Patterson can contribute a .270 avg and 20 HR’s. Finally, Erick Feddie should also make his debut, however he did have Tommy John surgery in 2014. He has #3 stuff. Minor league score 18
2018 MLB Ready
CIN SP Mahle, Tyler
COL RF Patterson, Jordan
WAS SP Fedde, Erick
3 Star Players
MIL SS Diaz, Isan
#15 Evil Otters
First, like The Foundation/Night King’s Undead Army, the Otters also changed their name and ownership. We miss you Dusty and I hope your health is improving. I was a little surprise the Otters traded one of their top prospects for a part time catcher for the coming season. There not much squid in the cooler but the Otters do have a couple of sleepers I really like. Jorge Ona and Will Benson are capable of 30 HR’s a season. The only player I see making it onto an MLB roster this year is Domingo Acevedo, who is slated to start in the bullpen. FYI, I’m not a fan of the Otters short name “666” What’s up with that???? Minor league score 16
2018 MLB Ready
NYY RP Acevedo, Domingo
3 Star Players
TEX SP Speas, Alex
NYY RP Acevedo, Domingo
#16 We Talk Fantasy Sports
Momma’s cupboard is empty with an open jar of stale Oreo cookies. Slack chatting with We Talk mentioned that his priority was drafting major league ready players, which explains why he has no fresh cookies. We Talk has two really nice prospects, Adbert Alzolay and Corbin Burnes, who are high level prospects that could see action in 2019. In 2018 We Talk Fantasy Sports should have Dillion Peters fight for a rotation spot with MIA, which shouldn’t be that hard considering what has happened down south, and he still has Byron Buxton right? Minor league score 10
2018 MLB Ready
MIA SP Peters, Dillon
3 Star Players
CHC SP Alzolay, Adbert
MIL SP Burnes, Corbin
Conclusion: I had a lot of fun and learned a lot putting all of this together. Absolutely no hard feelings towards any of the teams, it’s just one opinion. I believe to be successful is a dynasty baseball league it’s a must to have a strong minor league squad. I asked my baseball friends on the right and the left and they said the article is “fake news” because they are only minor league prospects and you never know, plus most of them are young adults. If I missed on any prospects or you disagree with the article please post on slack. Please, I have no intention to be mean and only trying to make the league better.
Andrew’s thoughts: Seems reasonable for both teams to me. One team needed an extra hitter, the other needed a pitcher. I think I’d rather have Victor, but I don’t feel strongly about it either way.
Jordan’s thoughts: I like Big Erv’. I like that now as the ace of his crappy team, he needs to probably pitch deeper into games by default. Our scoring system gives lots of points for outs. This is good for Santana. However, I really think V-Mart is the better player in this deal. Reluctantly I have to prefer the HLR side.
Team Canada sends: SP Stephen Strasburg ($66) Hustle Loyalty Respect send: 1B AJ Reed ($1; cost controlled), 2017 2nd Round Pick
Andrew’s thoughts: This is quite the salary dump.
A year ago, AJ Reed was all the rage. One hundred and forty one abysmal MLB at-bats later, he’s kind of an afterthought. Like, when I got the trade accepted e-mail, it took my brain a moment to recall who he was. I thought it was Addison Reed for a split second. Off-season depth charts aren’t worth much, but he’s like fourth at 1B for Houston. His .236 BABIP indicates that he was super unlucky, but still. He struck out 34% of the time. It was just a disastrous limited stint for him with the Astros last year. We absolutely shouldn’t give up on him and he’s hit at every level he’s played at so he’ll probably be fine, but speaking purely in terms of value, you would think his is greatly diminished at this moment in time.
Meanwhile, Stephen Strasburg was awesome again last year. I guess $66 is expensive for a guy who is always hurt and who you can’t reliably bank on to pitch for you in the playoffs. Still, I’d be pretty happy with 20-25 Strasburg starts supplemented by five from some replacement pitcher. On a rate basis, there aren’t many better than Strasburg, so whatever innings he does give you are likely to be of the elite variety.
For Team Canada, there was definitely a need to free up budget space, so I get it. I guess both teams are taking risks of varying degrees: TC that Reed can be a useful hitter (can’t be much worse than a $24 Lucas Duda, right?) and HLR that Strasburg’s arm doesn’t simply fall off or become absorbed into his torso somehow.
Jordan’s thoughts: I really do not have a feel for this trade. Both of the players exchanged are guys I would personally stay away from. Sure, if you get either one, in some favorable deal, great.
I like watching Straburg pitch. So I guess I’d prefer to have him. But, the price tag is right in the range where I start to sweat. He’s easily capable of making it look like a bargain. But, well, he’s pitched 200 innings once in his career. That was three years ago. That’s pretty distasteful.
AJ Reed was pretty crappy in his first MLB experience. It is amazing to me that all prospects don’t break out great out of the box. I’d like to be patient with him and see what happens. But, if I were in a position of needing an ace, I’d trade AJ Reed in a heartbeat.
If I’m HLR, I’d rather use this bullet after the draft. I think it would have existed.
Andrew’s thoughts: This trade gives me lots of mixed feelings. I like it for both teams. Then I wait 30 seconds and feel like both teams sold low. Does that even make sense? This is a fascinating one.
If you buy into the theory that the auction is likely to be weak, as I think several owners do, then acquiring a player like Robinson Cano at just $38 fundamentally seems like a good strategy. He’s good, he’s reliable, he’s pretty cheap. Dusty was poised to start Josh Harrison, sans all the extra position eligibility that once made him valuable, at 2B, so this isn’t some marginal upgrade. This is a big deal. And to do it, all he had to do was give up a single cost controlled pitcher whose clock has already started. It feels cheap. But… it also feels kind of expensive. Again: how is this possible?
On the other hand, I’ve got Julio Urias, Blake Snell, and Sean Manaea. Like Tyler Glasnow, they’re $1 and cost controlled for many more seasons to come. And they’re pitchers. The first year of this league taught us that cost control players and pitchers, mutually exclusive of one another, are very valuable on the trade market. Together, they’re worth even more. I get asked about my three pitchers constantly. Granted, the three of them performed better than Glasnow in their first tastes of the majors. But they’re essentially the same guy as the Pirates’ young pitcher. I’m sure lots of teams would’ve loved to acquire Glasnow.
Getting Cano at a great price is a big get, but I wouldn’t have sent one of my three starters for him, and I’m in need of a 2B. Of course, circumstances matter. Dusty has better pitching than I do, so he can afford the blow. He’s still got Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, and John Lackey anchoring his staff. But Dusty’s team, like mine, was bad last year. My own reluctance to deal a cost controlled pitcher right now is that, if my team still sucks, I’ve punted one of my most valuable assets and haven’t improved my standing. To me, trading a Urias or a Snell, or a Glasnow in this case, makes a little more sense once the season begins and you get a feel for your team, unless your team is clearly awesome already. I admire Dusty’s boldness to strike and worry about the rest later though.
Before this trade, Team Canada was at $683. Anyone buying Cano had significant leverage, because TC has to shed salary somewhere. They simply can’t afford to keep everyone. TC also doesn’t have any obvious cuts, at least not of the big salary variety. Sending a valuable asset like Glasnow seems like a last resort, and maybe many offers were exchanged, but Cano went from listed on the trade block to dealt before I even had a chance to get in an offer (21 hours, actually), so I can only guess that Dusty started high. And again: kudos on being bold. But TC’s trade block said he wanted two prospects and a first round pick (it’s not often teams publicize what they want with that much specificity), so that he didn’t wait and see if other teams would approach that sticker price should show just how valuable Glasnow is on the trade market.
But it’s fine. Dusty’s got cap space, can burn some pitching, and just can’t go into the year with Harrison at 2B. And Glasnow may not even be good. For as valuable as he is on the trade market, it’s very conceivable that he’s at peak value right now and will only go downhill from here. So selling for a cheap productive Cano is a good cash out. And if his team sucks again mid-season, oh well, Cano should still be a valuable chip. For Team Canada, it’s a great swap because he still can just play Trea Turner at 2B and has now cut costs while adding a premium pitching prospect. It might have made more sense to wait and see if he could get the three pieces he wanted, but if a Glasnow-type pitcher is what you covet, there’s no big incentive to wait when you’ve got what you want on the table.
Honestly, I feign interest in a lot of trades so these posts are a little more interesting to read, but this one’s a legitimately intriguing trade with a lot of fun angles. In the end I like it for both teams, but if you check back in 30 seconds I might think otherwise.
Jordan’s thoughts: I would prefer to have Robinson Cano and it is not even very close. Glasnow has issues with walking batters. He wasn’t ready last year, and there’s little reason to believe he’ll be ready going forward. He could even end up in the bullpen.
I think there’s definitely scenarios where Glasnow makes this trade look incredibly foolish. I think that happens with any pitcher. They find the thing that makes them tick. Then they break. Pitchers who figure it out are incredibly valuable. Pitchers who have broken or haven’t figured it out, are only as valuable as their potential to figure out their way.
Robinson Cano somewhat quietly hit 39 homers last year. He’s still pretty great. He’s got some room to give before he’s not valuable at the price tag. I would prefer to have this trade if only it gives me one good year of Robby Cano. If I get two or three decent Cano seasons, Glasnow really has to be great for a long time to make up that difference to me.
I’m always willing to error on the side of the proven veteran, but here I don’t think its really close. I feel like Glasnow is less valuable now that he was a year ago, and Cano is probably more valuable.
The inaugural Dynasty Grinders regular season is over! Team Hydra edges out TBD on the back of recently traded Corey Kluber. We’ll never know if the 90 point swing was enough to sink TBD or not.
Hustle Loyalty Respect edges out the Trumpa Loompas to finish in 3rd place. We Talk Fantasy Sports topped Team Canada to win the second tier bracket. Who’s Your Haddy beat Rocky Mountain Oysters to win the third tier. Finally, In shorter line for the win topped The Foundation to win the Toilet Bowl bracket.
The first season was a real experience. I’m already looking forward to season 2! Have a fun off-season.
The Foundation sends: SP Brandon McCarthy ($3), RP Trevor May ($2), 2017 1st Round Pick, 2018 1st Round Pick Capital City Ironmen sends: SP James Shields ($28), 2017 2nd Round Pick, 2018 2nd Round Pick
Andrew’s thoughts: This was always kind of the point of getting James Shields back in my Johnny Cueto trade: to flip him later for a little something extra.
It’s easy to say now that the White Sox have acquired him, but I really wanted to deal Shields before he got traded in real life. The Chicago rumors made me nervous. That ballpark plus the DH does not seem like a great recipe for one of baseball’s most HR prone pitchers dating back to the start of 2015. Among qualified starters, Shields is seventh-worst in HR/9 at 1.40 over that time period and in terms of total homers allowed, he’s surrendered 42; only Max Scherzer and Hector Santiago have allowed more.
EDIT: ZiPS just got updated and Shields’ FIP went from projected 3.73 rest of season to 3.98 with the move to Chicago.
Admittedly, the return was lighter than I would have hoped. I would’ve liked to get back one more piece, preferably a cheap major leaguer, but I just couldn’t find a piece that fit and, frankly, the market for Shields’ services was not very robust.
What makes Shields valuable is that he throws a ton of innings, thus recording a lot of outs and points. He got totally blasted in his last start and was pulled after 2.2 innings, but that’s the exception. Usually even if he’s off, his manager will leave him out there for six or seven innings. In fact, he’d gone six or more innings in his first 10 starts before that last stinker. He scored 25 or more fantasy points in eight of those starts. He’s also thrown 200+ innings in nine straight seasons and is on pace to make that 10 in a row. His floor is quite high.
Brandon McCarthy is mostly just a flier, but I should note that for their careers, McCarthy and Shields have comparable FIP, xFIP, BB/9, and HR/9 rates. Over their last 30 or so starts, McCarthy’s numbers have actually been better across the board. Shields still projects better though, given how he hogs innings and McCarthy likely won’t pitch deep into games coming off injury (which is a whole separate risk component altogether). I’m just hoping McCarthy spends the rest of 2016 recovering and is in a spot to contribute in 2017 at a much cheaper salary than Shields.
With Trevor May, I’m just hoping something changes and the Twins convert him back into a starter. That seems unlikely though. He’s currently sporting a 13.67 K/9, so if not a starter, he could be a cheap RP option that strikes a ton of guys out. The price to find out what his future holds costs nothing but a RP spot, which I’d been mostly funneling guys in and out of anyway.
The main thing was getting the picks. Once my team decided to suck this year and I embarked on rebuilding, part of my strategy was to stock up on the highest picks possible. I tend to think picks are valuable but likely overrated, especially in baseball. This isn’t football where your rookie running back will start and make an impact from Week One. In baseball, prospects take time. But I’d rather have superior draft assets than not, and with my fifteen minors spots mostly accounted for, accruing picks is my only real means of adding cost controlled talent in the future.
For Jordan, the cost to add a stabilizing starting pitcher really wasn’t too much. To date, his team has lost the second-most points to HR allowed (interestingly, first place Team Canada has been stung the most), so Shields doesn’t necessarily fix that. But there’s a ton of positive regression due for the rest of his staff, so what Shields will really be doing is cutting down on having to use dice roll starts. That means not being backed into a corner where Aaron Blair, James Paxton, or Mat Latos has to be deployed.
Clayton Kershaw went for $117 — or 23.4% of a total team budget– at auction and was totally worth it. He’s that good. But there are a bunch of other players on the opposite end of the cost spectrum who have been good as well. Not Kershaw good, but good. And at $1, they’ve proven to be steals.
The cool thing about dollar players is that the team who nominated them can bask in all the credit. It’s not like a $20 player where five teams were in on the bidding but only one won and gets to look smart.
Here’s a quick look at each team’s best currently-rostered $1 player, starting from the top of our current standings and working down…
Getting a borderline top-50 starting pitcher for a buck is just unreal value. His numbers aren’t particularly good though. He’s striking out just 5.43 batters per nine, walking 4.21, and has posted a FIP/xFIP slash of 4.39/4.59. Basically, he’s been super lucky and he’s getting by without particularly good stuff.
But hey, he costs a buck! As of this post, first place Team Canada has only started him three times, so he’s clearly not being relied on too heavily, which is exactly what you want for a guy like Perez.
The Mariners’ platoon outfielder was the fourth-to-last player auctioned and at just $1, has rewarded Hustle Loyalty Respect handsomely. Smith has been in HLR’s lineup 14 times to date and has hit at a rate of 4.88 points per game in those opportunities, which is a better than league average clip. He’s a really good bench option.
Brandon Drury has thus far been one of the best values in the league. Not only has he hit the hell out of the ball, but he can play three positions. At the absolute worst, he’s a flexible bench player capable of being deployed on days where better players are out. But the Loomps have started him 30 times this year, so he’s played his way into a key role.
Having said that, he’s only hit at a 2.68 points per game rate over the last two weeks. Even if he cools though, he’s still been worth every bit of that dollar investment and with all that positional eligibility, he can still deliver value even if he hits at right around replacement levels.
Jake Lamb has been on my prospect radar for a while now, so it’s cool to see him getting playing time and making the most of it. For just a buck, TBD has gotten an every day third baseman that is currently outscoring Todd Frazier, Miguel Sano, Adrian Beltre, and Evan Longoria.
Like his Diamondbacks teammate Drury above, Lamb is certainly one of the best $1 buys and one of the better values of any dollar amount leaguewide.
The shortstop position is no longer as weak as it was, so coming into this year there were a few savvy teams who opted to punt the position knowing that they could come away with a good option for cheap instead of paying a position premium. Hydra didn’t necessarily do that, as they dropped $23 on Marcus Semien at auction, but Cozart made him expendable and their team is better for it.
Cozart won’t wow you most weeks, but at such a negligible cost, he’s proved a really valuable piece to a team vying for a playoff spot.
BEACH BUM: 1B/LF, Hyun Soo Kim, 96.9 points, 1B62
Okay, I realize this looks bad. The Orioles’ international signee has barely played and, in fact, Dan just scooped him up from free agency after the owner who won him at auction opted to cut bait. But the reason he’s here is twofold.
First, there isn’t really a better option on this team. And second, if there’s one owner in this league who I think is capable of recognizing a potentially valuable player that can be had for free and then have the patience to sit on him, it’s Dan. Kim hits when he plays, it’s just a matter of opportunities. On this roster, there’s a good chance he’ll just linger until those opportunities present themselves, at which point value should follow.
THE WILFRED BRIMLEY FIGHTING DIABEETUSES: 2B/3B/SS Danny Espinosa, 172.9 points, SS27
Jean Segura has cooled off considerably from his hot start. Over the last 21 days, he’s been only the 31st ranked shortstop and is hitting at a below replacement level points per game clip. But the first few weeks to his season were insane, illustrating the potential that’s here. You could argue that Segura is the biggest reason The Foundation is 4-4 and not below .500, and in that regard he was definitely a dollar well spent.
WE TALK FANTASY SPORTS: SP Ubaldo Jimenez, 154 points, SP125
WHO’S YOUR HADDY?: RP Addison Reed, 81.7 points, RP24
Admittedly, it’s weird choosing a reliever. But the only other viable option here was Lonnie Chisenhall, and I actually like Reed more. I’m not a big believer in spending big to build a bullpen, so Reed is pretty much exactly what you want: a cheap guy that performs comparably to guys who are paid well. As a top-25 reliever, he’s tremendous value at a position where spending a lot doesn’t seem advisable.
Mike Foltynewicz has only started six games and he hasn’t been particularly good overall, but four of those starts were quite good. Two of them were toxic. The former top prospect is young and still developing, so you need to be cautious about deploying him. In other words, if you’re using him as anything more than your emergency seventh starter, you’re probably not going to fare too well. But for a buck, I really like the risk and the potential for reward.
CAPITAL CITY IRONMEN: LF/RF Michael Saunders, 304.1 points, OF24
Finally, it appears Michael Saunders is healthy. That’s always been his bugaboo. When on the field, he’s always performed well, though right now he’s experiencing a true renaissance. And at just 29-years-old, his low cost and great production suggests plenty of future surplus value as well.
IN LINE 4 THE WIN: N/A
This team does not have a single $1 player on it. That doesn’t mean they don’t have any good values. Just no good values for a buck.
SENIOR SQUIDS: N/A
Um… is this a trend? Remember, we’re going in standings order. Suffice to say, if you do not have a $1 player on your roster, period, you will lose. Let this be a lesson to you.
PRESEASON DOUBLE STUFFS: 1B John Jaso, 235.6 points, 1B29
John Jaso rules. Like Saunders above, he’s always been a really good player, he’s just struggled to stay healthy and put full seasons together. To date, his on-base percentage is a cool .369 and he’s a .362 guy for his career, so he’s basically just doing what he does. He lacks the power you want at 1B, probably, but when you’re walking a lot and barreling up base hits, you’ll take it. In fact, it’s the lack of power that makes guys like Jaso sneaky valuable in this league.
While teams are targeting the big home run hitters because they’re capable of dropping 30 point games, guys like Jaso, who will just quietly put up above average weeks without the long balls, will slip through the cracks.
Hustle Loyalty Respect sends: SP Juan Nicasio (FA) The Wilfred Brimley Fighting Diabeetuses sends: $3 2017 Auction Budget
Andrew’s thoughts: This is minor but interesting trade.
I believe WBFD just needed a seventh start, so they flipped a negligible bit of auction budget to Hustle Loyalty Respect for Juan Nicasio, a good not great option who was slated to start Sunday. In hindsight, the move flopped. The Pirates’ game was rained out and so Nicasio’s start was washed away, and WBFD fell to Team Canada by 16.2 points. Nicasio has thus far averaged a tick over 21 points per start, so it’s not a stretch to suggest that if he’d started, it would have been the difference between a win and a loss.
That 21 point per start number makes Nicasio a slightly below average pitcher (remember, average is around 24-25 points per start), but I still think he’s worth more than $3. I mean, I get that this was a short-term move. Maybe it was a rental situation, I don’t know. But fundamentally, if I’m HLR, I’d rather just have the pitcher than the $3 long-term. If he was renting him out for the day for $3 then that opinion changes, because at that point it’s just three free budget dollars.
HLR had deployed Nicasio three times this season for 79 net points, or 26.33/start. The usage is spotty, but if you’re picking and choosing what match-ups to deploy your pitchers, they can quickly become more valuable. Three bucks essentially covers one player’s raise in 2017 with a dollar left over. So if you’re looking at this as a normal trade without the emergency start caveat and discounting any possibility of a rental deal, then I’m not sure why one of the top contenders would just dump a pitcher for such a tiny future gain. But meh.
Like I said, this was a minor trade. Good on WBFD for being aggressively chasing a win.
